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Modelling Temporal Uncertainty in Archaeological Analysis.
- Source :
- Journal of Archaeological Method & Theory; Sep2012, Vol. 19 Issue 3, p440-461, 22p, 1 Diagram, 1 Chart, 8 Graphs, 1 Map
- Publication Year :
- 2012
-
Abstract
- This paper discusses the problem of temporal uncertainty in archaeological analysis and how it affects archaeological interpretation. A probabilistic method is proposed as a potential solution for modelling and quantifying time when high levels of uncertainty restricts temporal knowledge and scientific datings are unavailable, while Monte Carlo simulation is suggested as a means to formally integrate such knowledge into actual analysis. A case study focusing on counts of prehistoric hunter-gatherer pithouses in Mid-Holocene Japan provides an example of how uncertainty can be problematic and bias the results of the most straightforward archaeological analysis and how the coupling of a probabilistic and simulation-based approach nonetheless offers a useful solution. The discussion that follows also addresses the need for more robust and quantifiable ways to illustrate the chronological flow of our archaeological narratives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 10725369
- Volume :
- 19
- Issue :
- 3
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Journal of Archaeological Method & Theory
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 78305733
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s10816-011-9122-3