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In this study, we tested the impact of a revised set of soil, vegetation and land cover parameters on the performance of three different state-of-the-art land surface models (LSMs) within the NASA Land Information System (LIS). The impact of this revision was tested over the South American Dry Chaco, an ecoregion characterized by deforestation and forest degradation since the 1980s. Most large-scale LSMs may lack the ability to correctly represent the ongoing deforestation processes in this region, because most LSMs use climatological vegetation indices and static land cover information. The default LIS parameters were revised with (i) improved soil parameters, (ii) satellite-based interannually varying vegetation indices (leaf area index and green vegetation fraction) instead of climatological vegetation indices, and (iii) yearly land cover information instead of static land cover. A relative comparison in terms of water budget components and “efficiency space” for various baseline and revised experiments showed that large regional and long-term differences in the simulated water budget partitioning relate to different LSM structures, whereas smaller local differences resulted from updated soil, vegetation and land cover parameters. Furthermore, the different LSM structures redistributed water differently in response to these parameter updates. A time-series comparison of the simulations to independent satellite-based estimates of evapotranspiration and brightness temperature (Tb) showed that no LSM setup significantly outperformed another for the entire region and that not all LSM simulations improved with updated parameter values. However, the revised soil parameters generally reduced the bias between simulated surface soil moisture and pixel-scale in situ observations and the bias between simulated Tb and regional Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) observations. Our results suggest that the different hydrological responses of various LSMs to vegetation changes may need further attention to gain benefits from vegetation data assimilation.

South and Southeast Asia is subject to significant hydrometeorological extremes, including drought. Under rising temperatures, growing populations, and an apparent weakening of the South Asian monsoon in recent decades, concerns regarding drought and its potential impacts on water and food security are on the rise. Reliable sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hydrological forecasts could, in principle, help governments and international organizations to better assess risk and act in the face of an oncoming drought. Here, we leverage recent improvements in S2S meteorological forecasts and the growing power of Earth Observations to provide more accurate monitoring of hydrological states for forecast initialization. Information from both sources is merged in a South and Southeast Asia sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting system (SAHFS-S2S), developed collaboratively with the NASA SERVIR program and end-users across the region. This system applies the Noah-MultiParameterization (NoahMP) Land Surface Model (LSM) in the NASA Land Information System (LIS), driven by downscaled meteorological fields from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) and Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation products (CHIRP and CHIRPS) to optimize initial conditions. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model - sub-seasonal to seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecasts, downscaled using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Analog Regression Downscaling (GARD) tool and quantile mapping, are then applied to drive 5-km resolution hydrological forecasts to a 9-month forecast time horizon. Results show that the skillful predictions of root zone soil moisture can be made one to two months in advance for forecasts initialized in rainy seasons and up to 8 months when initialized in dry seasons. The memory of accurate initial conditions can positively contribute to forecast skills throughout the entire 9-month prediction period in areas with limited precipitation. This SAHFS-S2S has been operationalized at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) to support drought monitoring and warning needs in the region.

Vegetation plays a fundamental role not only in the energy and carbon cycle, but also the global water balance by controlling surface evapotranspiration. Thus, accurately estimating vegetation-related variables has the potential to improve our understanding and estimation of the dynamic interactions between the water and carbon cycles. This study aims to assess to what extent a land surface model can be optimized through the assimilation of leaf area index (LAI) observations at the global scale. Two observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are performed to evaluate the efficiency of assimilating LAI through an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to estimate LAI, evapotranspiration (ET), interception evaporation (CIE), canopy water storage (CWS), surface soil moisture (SSM), and terrestrial water storage (TWS). Results show that the LAI data assimilation framework effectively reduces errors in LAI simulations. LAI assimilation also improves the model estimates of all the water flux and storage variables considered in this study (ET, CIE, CWS, SSM, and TWS), even when the forcing precipitation is strongly positively biased (extremely wet condition). However, it tends to worsen some of the model estimated water-related variables (SSM and TWS) when the forcing precipitation is affected by a dry bias. This is attributed to the fact that the amount of water in the land surface model is conservative and the LAI assimilation introduces more vegetation, which requires more water than what available within the soil. Future work should investigate a multi-variate data assimilation system that concurrently merges both LAI and soil moisture (or TWS) observations.

Accurate specification of the model error covariances in data assimilation systems is a challenging issue. Ensemble land data assimilation methods rely on stochastic perturbations of input forcing and model prognostic fields for developing representations of input model error covariances. This article examines the limitations of using a single forcing dataset for specifying forcing uncertainty inputs for assimilating snow depth retrievals. Using an idealized data assimilation experiment, the article demonstrates that the use of hybrid forcing input strategies (either through the use of an ensemble of forcing products or through the added use of the forcing climatology) provide a better characterization of the background model error, which leads to improved data assimilation results, especially during the snow accumulation and melt-time periods. The use of hybrid forcing ensembles is then employed for assimilating snow depth retrievals from the AMSR2 instrument over two domains in the continental USA with different snow evolution characteristics. Over a region near the Great Lakes, where the snow evolution tends to be ephemeral, the use of hybrid forcing ensembles provides significant improvements relative to the use of a single forcing dataset. Over the Colorado headwaters characterized by large snow accumulation, the impact of using the forcing ensemble is less prominent and is largely limited to the snow transition time periods. The results of the article demonstrate that improving the background model error through the use of a forcing ensemble enables the assimilation system to better incorporate the observational information.

The Earth's land surface is characterized by tremendous natural heterogeneity and human engineered modifications, both of which are challenging to represent in land surface models. Satellite remote sensing is often the most practical and effective method to observe the land surface over large geographical areas. Agricultural irrigation is an important human induced modifications to natural land surface processes, as it is pervasive across the world and because of its significant influence on the regional and global water budgets. In this article, irrigation is used as an example of a human engineered, unmodeled land surface process, and the utility of satellite soil moisture retrievals over irrigated areas in the continental US is examined. Such retrievals are based on passive or active microwave observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2), the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, WindSat and the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT). The analysis suggests that the skill of these retrievals for representing irrigation artifacts is mixed, with ASCAT based products somewhat more skillful than SMOS and AMSR2 products. The article then examines the suitability of typical bias correction strategies in current land data assimilation systems when unmodeled processes dominate the bias between the model and the observations. Using a suite of synthetic experiments that includes bias correction strategies such as quantile mapping and trained forward modeling, it is demonstrated that the bias correction practices lead to the exclusion of the signals from unmodeled processes, if these processes are the major source of the biases. It is further shown that new methods are needed to preserve the observational information about unmodeled processes during data assimilation.