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Photoautotrophic marine ecosystems can lock up organic carbon in their biomass and the associated organic sediments they trap over millennia and are thus regarded as blue carbon ecosystems. Because of the ability of marine ecosystems to lock up organic carbon for millennia, blue carbon is receiving much attention within the United Nations' 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development as a nature‐based solution (NBS) to climate change, but classically still focuses on seagrass meadows, mangrove forests, and tidal marshes. However, other coastal ecosystems could also be important for blue carbon storage, but remain largely neglected in both carbon cycling budgets and NBS strategic planning. Using a meta‐analysis of 253 research publications, we identify other coastal ecosystems—including mud flats, fjords, coralline algal (rhodolith) beds, and some components or coral reef systems—with a strong capacity to act as blue carbon sinks in certain situations. Features that promote blue carbon burial within these 'non‐classical' blue carbon ecosystems included: (1) balancing of carbon release by calcification via carbon uptake at the individual and ecosystem levels; (2) high rates of allochthonous organic carbon supply because of high particle trapping capacity; (3) high rates of carbon preservation and low remineralization rates; and (4) location in depositional environments. Some of these features are context‐dependent, meaning that these ecosystems were blue carbon sinks in some locations, but not others. Therefore, we provide a universal framework that can evaluate the likelihood of a given ecosystem to behave as a blue carbon sink for a given context. Overall, this paper seeks to encourage consideration of non‐classical blue carbon ecosystems within NBS strategies, allowing more complete blue carbon accounting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The term carbon (C) sequestration has not just become a buzzword but is something of a siren's call to scientific communicators and media outlets. Carbon sequestration is the removal of C from the atmosphere and the storage, for example, in soil. It has the potential to partially compensate for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and is, therefore, an important piece in the global climate change mitigation puzzle. However, the term C sequestration is often used misleadingly and, while likely unintentional, can lead to the perpetuation of biased conclusions and exaggerated expectations about its contribution to climate change mitigation efforts. Soils have considerable potential to take up C but many are also in a state of continuous loss. In such soils, measures to build up soil C may only lead to a reduction in C losses (C loss mitigation) rather than result in real C sequestration and negative emissions. In an examination of 100 recent peer‐reviewed papers on topics surrounding soil C, only 4% were found to have used the term C sequestration correctly. Furthermore, 13% of the papers equated C sequestration with C stocks. The review, further, revealed that measures leading to C sequestration will not always result in climate change mitigation when non‐CO2 greenhouse gases and leakage are taken into consideration. This paper highlights potential pitfalls when using the term C sequestration incorrectly and calls for accurate usage of this term going forward. Revised and new terms are suggested to distinguish clearly between C sequestration in soils, SOC loss mitigation, negative emissions, climate change mitigation, SOC storage, and SOC accrual to avoid miscommunication among scientists and stakeholder groups in future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article titled "Correction to 'Simulating carbon accumulation and loss in the central Congo peatlands'" by Young et al. (2023) acknowledges a coding error in the indexing of peat decay parameters in their model. The error resulted in incorrect values being assigned to some parameters. The authors provide the corrected values in Table 1 and state that the discussion and conclusion of their paper remain unchanged. The revised main simulation shows that 56% of the peat accumulated before the climatic dry phase was lost, compared to the previously reported 57%. The updated simulation also aligns well with the age-depth curve from Garcin et al. (2022). The revised paper includes updated figures and values in the abstract, table, results, and discussion sections. [Extracted from the article]

The accelerating pace of climate change has led to unprecedented shifts in surface temperature and precipitation patterns worldwide, with African savannas being among the most vulnerable regions. Understanding the impacts of these extreme changes on ecosystem health, functioning and stability is crucial. This paper focuses on the detection of breakpoints, indicative of shifts in ecosystem functioning, while also determining relevant ecosystem characteristics and climatic drivers that increase susceptibility to these shifts within the semi‐arid to arid savanna biome. Utilising a remote sensing change detection approach and rain use efficiency (RaUE) as a proxy for ecosystem functioning, spatial and temporal patterns of breakpoints in the savanna biome were identified. We then employed a novel combination of survival analysis and remote sensing time series analysis to compare ecosystem characteristics and climatic drivers in areas experiencing breakpoints versus areas with stable ecosystem functioning. Key ecosystem factors increasing savanna breakpoint susceptibility were identified, namely higher soil sand content, flatter terrain and a cooler long‐term mean temperature during the wet summer season. Moreover, the primary driver of changes in ecosystem functioning in arid savannas, as opposed to wetter tropical savannas, was found to be the increased frequency and severity of rainfall events, rather than drought pressures. This research highlights the importance of incorporating wetness severity metrics alongside drought metrics to comprehensively understand climate–ecosystem interactions leading to abrupt shifts in ecosystem functioning in arid biomes. The findings also emphasise the need to consider the underlying ecosystem characteristics, including soil, topography and vegetation composition, in assessing ecosystem responses to climate change. While this research primarily concentrated on the southern African savanna as a case study, the methodological robustness of this approach enables its application to diverse arid and semi‐arid biomes for the assessment of climate–ecosystem interactions that contribute to abrupt shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article titled "Correction to 'Cover crops do not increase soil organic carbon stocks as much as has been claimed: What is the way forward?'" by Chaplot and Smith discusses an error in their previous paper regarding the impact of cover crops on soil organic carbon stocks. They maintain their central conclusion that current studies do not provide sufficient reliable data to determine the impact of cover crops on soil organic carbon stocks. They also provide suggestions for future experiments in this area. The article includes a table listing research papers on the impact of cover crops on organic carbon stocks, with details about the authors, publication year, and additional notes about each paper. The authors acknowledge an error in the table and apologize for it. [Extracted from the article]

Manual outdoor work is essential in many agricultural systems. Climate change will make such work more stressful in many regions due to heat exposure. The physical work capacity metric (PWC) is a physiologically based approach that estimates an individual's work capacity relative to an environment without any heat stress. We computed PWC under recent past and potential future climate conditions. Daily values were computed from five earth system models for three emission scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) and three time periods: 1991–2010 (recent past), 2041–2060 (mid‐century) and 2081–2100 (end‐century). Average daily PWC values were aggregated for the entire year, the growing season, and the warmest 90‐day period of the year. Under recent past climate conditions, the growing season PWC was below 0.86 (86% of full work capacity) on half the current global cropland. With end‐century/SSP5‐8.5 thermal conditions this value was reduced to 0.7, with most affected crop‐growing regions in Southeast and South Asia, West and Central Africa, and northern South America. Average growing season PWC could falls below 0.4 in some important food production regions such as the Indo‐Gangetic plains in Pakistan and India. End‐century PWC reductions were substantially greater than mid‐century reductions. This paper assesses two potential adaptions—reducing direct solar radiation impacts with shade or working at night and reducing the need for hard physical labor with increased mechanization. Removing the effect of direct solar radiation impacts improved PWC values by 0.05 to 0.10 in the hottest periods and regions. Adding mechanization to increase horsepower (HP) per hectare to levels similar to those in some higher income countries would require a 22% increase in global HP availability with Sub‐Saharan Africa needing the most. There may be scope for shifting to less labor‐intensive crops or those with labor peaks in cooler periods or shift work to early morning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The marine biological carbon pump (BCP) stores carbon in the ocean interior, isolating it from exchange with the atmosphere and thereby coregulating atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). As the BCP commonly is equated with the flux of organic material to the ocean interior, termed "export flux," a change in export flux is perceived to directly impact atmospheric CO2, and thus climate. Here, we recap how this perception contrasts with current understanding of the BCP, emphasizing the lack of a direct relationship between global export flux and atmospheric CO2. We argue for the use of the storage of carbon of biological origin in the ocean interior as a diagnostic that directly relates to atmospheric CO2, as a way forward to quantify the changes in the BCP in a changing climate. The diagnostic is conveniently applicable to both climate model data and increasingly available observational data. It can explain a seemingly paradoxical response under anthropogenic climate change: Despite a decrease in export flux, the BCP intensifies due to a longer reemergence time of biogenically stored carbon back to the ocean surface and thereby provides a negative feedback to increasing atmospheric CO2. This feedback is notably small compared with anthropogenic CO2 emissions and other carbon‐climate feedbacks. In this Opinion paper, we advocate for a comprehensive view of the BCP's impact on atmospheric CO2, providing a prerequisite for assessing the effectiveness of marine CO2 removal approaches that target marine biology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying carbon fluxes into and out of coastal soils is critical to meeting greenhouse gas reduction and coastal resiliency goals. Numerous 'blue carbon' studies have generated, or benefitted from, synthetic datasets. However, the community those efforts inspired does not have a centralized, standardized database of disaggregated data used to estimate carbon stocks and fluxes. In this paper, we describe a data structure designed to standardize data reporting, maximize reuse, and maintain a chain of credit from synthesis to original source. We introduce version 1.0.0. of the Coastal Carbon Library, a global database of 6723 soil profiles representing blue carbon‐storing systems including marshes, mangroves, tidal freshwater forests, and seagrasses. We also present the Coastal Carbon Atlas, an R‐shiny application that can be used to visualize, query, and download portions of the Coastal Carbon Library. The majority (4815) of entries in the database can be used for carbon stock assessments without the need for interpolating missing soil variables, 533 are available for estimating carbon burial rate, and 326 are useful for fitting dynamic soil formation models. Organic matter density significantly varied by habitat with tidal freshwater forests having the highest density, and seagrasses having the lowest. Future work could involve expansion of the synthesis to include more deep stock assessments, increasing the representation of data outside of the U.S., and increasing the amount of data available for mangroves and seagrasses, especially carbon burial rate data. We present proposed best practices for blue carbon data including an emphasis on disaggregation, data publication, dataset documentation, and use of standardized vocabulary and templates whenever appropriate. To conclude, the Coastal Carbon Library and Atlas serve as a general example of a grassroots F.A.I.R. (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) data effort demonstrating how data producers can coordinate to develop tools relevant to policy and decision‐making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical regions contain ecologically and socio‐economically important habitats, and are home to about 3.8 billion people, many of which directly depend on tropical coastal waters for their well‐being. At the basis of these ecosystems are biogeochemical processes. Climate change is expected to have a greater impact in the tropics compared to temperate regions because of the relatively stable environmental conditions found there. However, it was surprising to find only 660 research articles published focusing on the impact of climate change on the biogeochemistry of coastal tropical waters compared to 4823 for temperate waters. In this perspective, we highlight important topics in need of further research. Specifically, we suggest that in tropical regions compared to temperate counterparts climate change stressors will be experienced differently, that organisms have a lower acclimation capacity, and that long‐term baseline biogeochemical datasets useful for quantifying future changes are lacking. The low number of research papers on the impacts of climate change in coastal tropical regions is likely due to a mix of reasons including limited resources for research and limited number of long time series in many developing tropical countries. Finally, we propose some action points that we hope will stimulate more studies in tropical coastal waters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Winter is a key driver of ecological processes in freshwater, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in higher latitudes. Species have evolved various adaptive strategies to cope with food limitations and the cold and dark wintertime. However, human‐induced climate change and other anthropogenic stressors are impacting organisms in winter in unpredictable ways. In this paper, we show that global change experiments investigating multiple stressors have predominantly been conducted during summer months. However, effects of anthropogenic stressors sometimes differ between winter and other seasons, necessitating comprehensive investigations. Here, we outline a framework for understanding the different effects of anthropogenic stressors in winter compared to other seasons and discuss the primary mechanisms that will alter ecological responses of organisms (microbes, animals and plants). For instance, while the magnitude of some anthropogenic stressors can be greater in winter than in other seasons (e.g. some pollutants), others may alleviate natural winter stress (e.g. warmer temperatures). These changes can have immediate, delayed or carry‐over effects on organisms during winter or later seasons. Interactions between stressors may also vary with season. We call for a renewed research direction focusing on multiple stressor effects on winter ecology and evolution to fully understand, and predict, how ecosystems will fare under changing winters. We also argue the importance of incorporating the interactions of anthropogenic stressors with winter into ecological risk assessments, management and conservation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Litter decay dynamics of paper birch (Betula papyrifera) were assessed at the Aspen free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) facility in northern Wisconsin, USA. Leaf litter was decomposed for 12 months under factorial combinations of 360 vs. 560 μL CO2 L−1, crossed with 36 vs. 55 nL O3 L−1. To differentiate between substrate quality and environment effects, litterbags were placed in their Native Plots of origin or transplanted into the other treatments. CO2 enrichment, regardless of O3 concentration, produced poorer quality litter (high C/N, lignin/N and condensed tannins) than did ambient CO2 (low C/N, lignin/N and condensed tannins). Substrate quality differences were reflected in the mass loss rates (k-values), which were high for litter generated under ambient CO2 (0.887 year−1) and low for litter generated under elevated CO2 (0.674 year−1). The rate-retarding effects of CO2 enrichment were neither alleviated nor exacerbated by O3 exposure. Decay rates varied, however, depending on whether litter was placed back into its plot of origin or transplanted to Common Gardens. The results of this study are species specific, but they have important implications for understanding the processes regulating storage of fixed C and the release of CO2 from northern forest ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is a commentary on the paper in GCB by Moinet et al. (2023) entitled "Carbon for soils, not soils for carbon". The paper challenges two claims often made for soil carbon sequestration: (1) Sequestration of C in agricultural soils can make a substantial contribution to climate change mitigation. (2) Increasing SOC will routinely lead to increased crop yields and contribute to global food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article mentions the anniversary of the journal "Global Change Biology (GCB)," which has been publishing successful papers related to biology for 20 years.

The article titled "Correction to 'A new empirical framework to quantify the hydraulic effects of soil and atmospheric drivers on plant water status'" discusses a correction that needs to be made to Figure 1 of the paper. The numerical scale on the X axis of Figure 1 was mistakenly multiplied by a factor of 2, which does not affect the rest of the paper. The figure presents a conceptual diagram of the relationships between leaf water potential and the combined hydraulic effects caused by soil and atmospheric drivers. The correction is necessary to ensure the accuracy of the plot. [Extracted from the article]

Soil respiration (Rs), as the second largest flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, is vulnerable to global nitrogen (N) enrichment. However, the global distribution of the N effects on Rs remains uncertain. Here, we compiled a new database containing 1282 observations of Rs and its heterotrophic component (Rh) in field N manipulative experiments from 317 published papers. Using this up‐to‐date database, we first performed a formal meta‐analysis to explore the responses of Rs and Rh to N addition, and then presented a global spatially explicit quantification of the N effects using a Random Forest model. Our results showed that experimental N addition significantly increased Rs but had a minimal impact on Rh, not supporting the prevailing view that N enrichment inhibits soil microbial respiration. For the major biomes, the magnitude of N input was the main determinant of the spatial variation in Rs response, while the most important predictors for Rh response were biome specific. Based on the key predictors, global mapping visually demonstrated a positive N effect in the regions with higher anthropogenic N inputs (i.e., atmospheric N deposition and agricultural fertilization). Overall, our analysis not only provides novel insight into the N effects on soil CO2 fluxes, but also presents a spatially explicit assessment of the N effects at the global scale, which are pivotal for understanding ecosystem carbon dynamics in future scenarios with more frequent anthropogenic activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil anammox is an environmentally friendly way to eliminate reactive nitrogen (N) without generating nitrous oxide. Nevertheless, the current earth system models have not incorporated the anammox due to the lack of parameters in anammox rates on a global scale, limiting the accurate projection for N cycling. A global synthesis with 1212 observations from 89 peer‐reviewed papers showed that the average anammox rate was 1.60 ± 0.17 nmol N g−1 h−1 in terrestrial ecosystems, with significant variations across different ecosystems. Wetlands exhibited the highest rate (2.17 ± 0.31 nmol N g−1 h−1), followed by croplands at 1.02 ± 0.09 nmol N g−1 h−1. The lowest anammox rates were observed in forests and grasslands. The anammox rates were positively correlated with the mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, soil moisture, organic carbon (C), total N, as well as nitrite and ammonium concentrations, but negatively with the soil C:N ratio. Structural equation models revealed that the geographical variations in anammox rates were primarily influenced by the N contents (such as nitrite and ammonium) and abundance of anammox bacteria, which collectively accounted for 42% of the observed variance. Furthermore, the abundance of anammox bacteria was well simulated by the mean annual precipitation, soil moisture, and ammonium concentrations, and 51% variance of the anammox bacteria was accounted for. The key controlling factors for soil anammox rates differed from ecosystem type, for example, organic C, total N, and ammonium contents in croplands, versus soil C:N ratio and nitrite concentrations in wetlands. The controlling factors in soil anammox rate identified by this study are useful to construct an accurate anammox module for N cycling in earth system models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human activity is leading to changes in the mean and variability of climatic parameters in most locations around the world. The changing mean has received considerable attention from scientists and climate policy makers. However, recent work indicates that the changing variability, that is, the amplitude and the temporal autocorrelation of deviations from the mean, may have greater and more imminent impact on ecosystems. In this paper, we demonstrate that changes in climate variability alone could drive cyclic predator–prey ecosystems to extinction via so‐called phase‐tipping (P‐tipping), a new type of instability that occurs only from certain phases of the predator–prey cycle. We construct a mathematical model of a variable climate and couple it to two self‐oscillating paradigmatic predator–prey models. Most importantly, we combine realistic parameter values for the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare with actual climate data from the boreal forest. In this way, we demonstrate that critically important species in the boreal forest have increased likelihood of P‐tipping to extinction under predicted changes in climate variability, and are most vulnerable during stages of the cycle when the predator population is near its maximum. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that stochastic resonance is the underlying mechanism for the increased likelihood of P‐tipping to extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is a remotely sensed optical signal emitted during the light reactions of photosynthesis. The past two decades have witnessed an explosion in availability of SIF data at increasingly higher spatial and temporal resolutions, sparking applications in diverse research sectors (e.g., ecology, agriculture, hydrology, climate, and socioeconomics). These applications must deal with complexities caused by tremendous variations in scale and the impacts of interacting and superimposing plant physiology and three‐dimensional vegetation structure on the emission and scattering of SIF. At present, these complexities have not been overcome. To advance future research, the two companion reviews aim to (1) develop an analytical framework for inferring terrestrial vegetation structures and function that are tied to SIF emission, (2) synthesize progress and identify challenges in SIF research via the lens of multi‐sector applications, and (3) map out actionable solutions to tackle these challenges and offer our vision for research priorities over the next 5–10 years based on the proposed analytical framework. This paper is the first of the two companion reviews, and theory oriented. It introduces a theoretically rigorous yet practically applicable analytical framework. Guided by this framework, we offer theoretical perspectives on three overarching questions: (1) The forward (mechanism) question—How are the dynamics of SIF affected by terrestrial ecosystem structure and function? (2) The inference question: What aspects of terrestrial ecosystem structure, function, and service can be reliably inferred from remotely sensed SIF and how? (3) The innovation question: What innovations are needed to realize the full potential of SIF remote sensing for real‐world applications under climate change? The analytical framework elucidates that process complexity must be appreciated in inferring ecosystem structure and function from the observed SIF; this framework can serve as a diagnosis and inference tool for versatile applications across diverse spatial and temporal scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperate perennial fruit and nut trees play varying roles in world food diversity—providing edible oils and micronutrient, energy, and protein dense foods. In addition, perennials reuse significant amounts of biomass each year providing a unique resilience. But they also have a unique sensitivity to seasonal temperatures, requiring a period of dormancy for successful growing season production. This paper takes a global view of five temperate tree fruit crops—apples, cherries, almonds, olives, and grapes—and assesses the effects of future temperature changes on thermal suitability. It uses climate data from five earth system models for two CMIP6 climate scenarios and temperature‐related indices of stress to indicate potential future areas where crops cannot be grown and highlight potential new suitable regions. The loss of currently suitable areas and new additions in new locations varies by scenario. In the southern hemisphere (SH), end‐century (2081–2100) suitable areas under the SSP 5–8.5 scenario decline by more than 40% compared to a recent historical period (1991–2010). In the northern hemisphere (NH) suitability increases by 20% to almost 60%. With SSP1‐2.6, however, the changes are much smaller with SH area declining by about 25% and NH increasing by about 10%. The results suggest substantial restructuring of global production for these crops. Essentially, climate change shifts temperature‐suitable locations toward higher latitudes. In the SH, most of the historically suitable areas were already at the southern end of the landmass limiting opportunities for adaptation. If breeding efforts can bring chilling requirements for the major cultivars closer to that currently seen in some cultivars, suitable areas at the end of the century are greater, but higher summer temperatures offset the extent. The high value of fruit crops provides adaptation opportunities such as cultivar selection, canopy cooling using sprinklers, shade netting, and precision irrigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractIncreased levels of atmospheric CO2 may alter the structure and composition of plant communities by affecting how species respond to their physical and biological environment. We investigated how elevated CO2 influenced the response of paper birch ( Betula papyrifera Marsh.) and yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britt.) seedlings to variation in soil moisture. Seedlings were grown for four months on a soil moisture gradient, individually and in mixed species stands, in controlled environment facilities at ambient (375 μL L–1) and elevated (700 μL L–1) atmospheric CO2. For both individually and competitively grown paper birch seedlings, there was a greater CO2 growth enhancement for seedlings watered less frequently than for well-watered seedlings. This differential change in CO2 responsiveness across the moisture gradient reduced the difference in seedling growth between high and low water levels and effectively broadened the regeneration niche of paper birch. In contrast, for yellow birch seedlings, elevated CO2 only produced a significant growth enhancement at the wet end of the soil moisture gradient, and increased the size difference between seedlings at the two ends of the gradient. Gas exchange measurements showed that paper birch seedlings were more sensitive than yellow birch seedlings to declines in soil moisture, and that elevated CO2 reduced this sensitivity. Additionally, elevated CO2 improved survival of yellow birch seedlings growing in competition with paper birch in dry stands. Thus, elevated CO2 may influence regeneration patterns of paper birch and yellow birch on sites of differing soil moisture. In the future, as atmospheric CO2 levels rise, growth of paper birch seedlings and survival of yellow birch seedlings may be enhanced on xeric sites, while yellow birch may show improved growth on mesic sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide a commentary on the review paper by Leites and Benito‐Garzón (2023) about the value of the existing multisite provenance forest genetic trials for forecasting species distribution and forest tree responses in a changing world. Providing knowledge on forest tree species' genetic variation, phenotypic plasticity and genetic variation in plasticity to climate changes is essential for predicting forest tree species' responses to the ongoing changes. We made a claim for a quick and coordinated international effort to establish a next generation of multisite, range‐wide provenance forest genetic trials focused on forest resilience and responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Near‐term freshwater forecasts, defined as sub‐daily to decadal future predictions of a freshwater variable with quantified uncertainty, are urgently needed to improve water quality management as freshwater ecosystems exhibit greater variability due to global change. Shifting baselines in freshwater ecosystems due to land use and climate change prevent managers from relying on historical averages for predicting future conditions, necessitating near‐term forecasts to mitigate freshwater risks to human health and safety (e.g., flash floods, harmful algal blooms) and ecosystem services (e.g., water‐related recreation and tourism). To assess the current state of freshwater forecasting and identify opportunities for future progress, we synthesized freshwater forecasting papers published in the past 5 years. We found that freshwater forecasting is currently dominated by near‐term forecasts of water quantity and that near‐term water quality forecasts are fewer in number and in the early stages of development (i.e., non‐operational) despite their potential as important preemptive decision support tools. We contend that more freshwater quality forecasts are critically needed and that near‐term water quality forecasting is poised to make substantial advances based on examples of recent progress in forecasting methodology, workflows, and end‐user engagement. For example, current water quality forecasting systems can predict water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and algal bloom/toxin events 5 days ahead with reasonable accuracy. Continued progress in freshwater quality forecasting will be greatly accelerated by adapting tools and approaches from freshwater quantity forecasting (e.g., machine learning modeling methods). In addition, future development of effective operational freshwater quality forecasts will require substantive engagement of end users throughout the forecast process, funding, and training opportunities. Looking ahead, near‐term forecasting provides a hopeful future for freshwater management in the face of increased variability and risk due to global change, and we encourage the freshwater scientific community to incorporate forecasting approaches in water quality research and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming intensifies the hydrological cycle, which results in changes in precipitation regime (frequency and amount), and will likely have significant impacts on soil respiration (Rs). Although the responses of Rs to changes in precipitation amount have been extensively studied, there is little consensus on how Rs will be affected by changes in precipitation frequency (PF) across the globe. Here, we synthesized the field observations from 296 published papers to quantify the effects of PF on Rs and its components using meta-analysis. Our results indicated that the effects of PF on Rs decreased with an increase in background mean annual precipitation. When the data were grouped by climate conditions, increased PF showed positive effects on Rs under the arid condition but not under the semi-humid or humid conditions, whereas decreased PF suppressed Rs across all the climate conditions. The positive effects of increased PF mainly resulted from the positive response of heterotrophic respiration under the arid condition while the negative effects of decreased PF were mainly attributed to the reductions in root biomass and respiration. Overall, our global synthesis provided for the first time a comprehensive analysis of the divergent effects of PF on Rs and its components across climate regions. This study also provided a framework for understanding and modeling responses of ecosystem carbon cycling to global precipitation change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rising temperatures associated with climate change have been shown to negatively affect the photosynthetic rates of boreal forest tree saplings at their southern range limits. To quantify the responses of ectomycorrhizal ( EM) fungal communities associated with poorly performing hosts, we sampled the roots of Betula papyrifera and Abies balsamea saplings growing in the B4Warmed (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment. EM fungi on the root systems of both hosts were compared from ambient and +3.4 °C air and soil warmed plots at two sites in northern Minnesota. EM fungal communities were assessed with high-throughput sequencing along with measures of plant photosynthesis, soil temperature, moisture, and nitrogen. Warming selectively altered EM fungal community composition at both the phylum and genus levels, but had no significant effect on EM fungal operational taxonomic unit ( OTU) diversity. Notably, warming strongly favored EM Ascomycetes and EM fungi with short-contact hyphal exploration types. Declining host photosynthetic rates were also significantly inversely correlated with EM Ascomycete and EM short-contact exploration type abundance, which may reflect a shift to less carbon demanding fungi due to lower photosynthetic capacity. Given the variation in EM host responses to warming, both within and between ecosystems, better understanding the link between host performance and EM fungal community structure will to clarify how climate change effects cascade belowground. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) is highlighted by conservation practitioners as an ongoing threat to many overharvested plant and animal species, including several charismatic threatened vertebrates. However, studies that provide evidence‐based and practical recommendations on how to better regulate the TCM trade for sustainability and biodiversity conservation remain limited. China is the biggest promotor of and market for TCM and understanding the TCM trade in China is important for global biodiversity conservation. In particular, conservation researchers need to better understand how the TCM trade and its regulations interact with China's development needs and should collaborate with TCM communities to propose locally adapted suggestions to decision makers. However, progress in these areas has been restricted by language, cultural, and knowledge barriers. In this paper, we provide an overview of the current status of TCM‐related regulations in China, identify weaknesses in regulation frameworks, and highlight issues that currently limit our understanding of the magnitude, dynamics, and impact of the trade. We propose changes in trade regulations, actions to enhance law enforcement, and future research directions to encourage a more sustainable TCM trade that benefits both global biodiversity conservation and TCM development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical savannas are globally extensive and ecologically invaluable ecosystems. As most ecosystems however, they are subject to serious anthropogenic stress. Defaunation, and especially the loss of large mammals, is pervasive in tropical savannas and known to trigger wide‐ranging ecological effects, from vegetation changes to the loss of ecosystem function. Despite what is currently known about the terrestrial consequences of defaunation, and the potential cross‐ecosystem influence of large mammals, virtually no research has investigated associated effects on small adjacent water bodies. This research gap persists because (1) tropical savannas have been historically neglected, (2) the ecological value of small water bodies (e.g. ponds) is only recently being recognized, and (3) empirical baseline data are often lacking. In this paper, we compared a rare pre‐change dataset with newly collected data on 213 freshwater assemblages, to investigate community structure and composition before and after a major defaunation event. Our research focused on a diverse species assemblage of amphibian larvae (i.e. tadpoles) in temporary savanna ponds. We found that pond vegetation cover increased from 16.0% to 45.6% post‐defaunation, that is, a near three‐fold increase. Such habitat changes seemed to have benefitted those species that use vegetation during reproduction (e.g. the leaf‐folding Afrixalus spp.), while others have declined. Interestingly, we found a strong correlation between tadpole community shifts and other freshwater organisms, which indicates that habitat changes have affected a wide variety of aquatic organisms. Given that organisms inhabiting temporary aquatic habitats often have complex life histories with terrestrial adult life stages, we propose that the terrestrial effects of defaunation have indirectly led to distinct aquatic communities, in addition to direct habitat effects. These results shed new light on the potential role of large‐bodied mammals in shaping adjacent ecosystems, and raise important questions concerning the functioning of temporary aquatic systems in the Anthropocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Factors constraining the geographic ranges of broadleaf tree species in eastern North America were examined in common gardens along a ~1500 km latitudinal transect travers in grange boundaries of four target species: trembling aspen ( Populus tremuloides) and paper birch ( Betula papyrifera) to the north vs. eastern cottonwood ( Populus deltoides) and sweet gum ( Liquidambar styraciflua) to the south. In 2006 and 2007, carbon-use efficiency ( CUE), the proportion of assimilated carbon retained in biomass, was estimated for seedlings of the four species as the quotient of relative growth rate ( RGR) and photosynthesis per unit tree mass ( Atree). In aspen and birch, CUE and RGR declined significantly with increasing growth temperature, which spanned 9 °C across gardens and years. The 37% (relative) CUE decrease from coolest to warmest garden correlated with increases in leaf nighttime respiration ( Rleaf) and the ratio of Rleaf to leaf photosynthesis ( R%A). For cottonwood and sweet gum, however, similar increases in Rleaf and R%A accompanied modest CUE declines, implying that processes other than Rleaf were responsible for species differences in CUE's temperature response. Our findings illustrate marked taxonomic variation, at least among young trees, in the thermal sensitivity of CUE, and point to potentially negative consequences of climate warming for the carbon balance, competitive ability, and persistence of two foundation species in northern temperate and boreal forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The resource‐use hypothesis, proposed by E.S. Vrba, states that habitat fragmentation caused by climatic oscillations would affect particularly biome specialists (species inhabiting only one biome), which might show higher speciation and extinction rates than biome generalists. If true, lineages would accumulate biome‐specialist species. This effect would be particularly exacerbated for biomes located at the periphery of the global climatic conditions, namely, biomes that have high/low precipitation and high/low temperature such as rainforest (warm‐humid), desert (warm‐dry), steppe (cold‐dry) and tundra (cold‐humid). Here, we test these hypotheses in swallowtail butterflies, a clade with more than 570 species, covering all the continents but Antarctica, and all climatic conditions. Swallowtail butterflies are among the most studied insects, and they are a model group for evolutionary biology and ecology studies. Continental macroecological rules are normally tested using vertebrates, this means that there are fewer examples exploring terrestrial invertebrate patterns at global scale. Here, we compiled a large Geographic Information System database on swallowtail butterflies' distribution maps and used the most complete time‐calibrated phylogeny to quantify diversification rates (DRs). In this paper, we aim to answer the following questions: (1) Are there more biome‐specialist swallowtail butterflies than biome generalists? (2) Is DR related to biome specialization? (3) If so, do swallowtail butterflies inhabiting extreme biomes show higher DRs? (4) What is the effect of species distribution area? Our results showed that swallowtail family presents a great number of biome specialists which showed substantially higher DRs compared to generalists. We also found that biome specialists are unevenly distributed across biomes. Overall, our results are consistent with the resource‐use hypothesis, species climatic niche and biome fragmentation as key factors promoting isolation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Neotropical realm still represents a great challenge to our understanding of species distribution patterns and the role played by different drivers of biodiversity. The paper by Coutant et al. (2022) is a great advance towards a holistic approach to quantifying the contribution of environmental and anthropogenic factors that drive community assembly in the Amazon, and how we can apply such knowledge to guide future monitoring programmes. Disentangling the relative roles played by multiple drivers of biodiversity allowed them to also highlight hotspot areas hosting unique freshwater fish diversity and to pinpoint conservation priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Offshore platforms, subsea pipelines, wells and related fixed structures supporting the oil and gas (O&G) industry are prevalent in oceans across the globe, with many approaching the end of their operational life and requiring decommissioning. Although structures can possess high ecological diversity and productivity, information on how they interact with broader ecological processes remains unclear. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the role of O&G infrastructure in maintaining, altering or enhancing ecological connectivity with natural marine habitats. There is a paucity of studies on the subject with only 33 papers specifically targeting connectivity and O&G structures, although other studies provide important related information. Evidence for O&G structures facilitating vertical and horizontal seascape connectivity exists for larvae and mobile adult invertebrates, fish and megafauna; including threatened and commercially important species. The degree to which these structures represent a beneficial or detrimental net impact remains unclear, is complex and ultimately needs more research to determine the extent to which natural connectivity networks are conserved, enhanced or disrupted. We discuss the potential impacts of different decommissioning approaches on seascape connectivity and identify, through expert elicitation, critical knowledge gaps that, if addressed, may further inform decision making for the life cycle of O&G infrastructure, with relevance for other industries (e.g. renewables). The most highly ranked critical knowledge gap was a need to understand how O&G structures modify and influence the movement patterns of mobile species and dispersal stages of sessile marine species. Understanding how different decommissioning options affect species survival and movement was also highly ranked, as was understanding the extent to which O&G structures contribute to extending species distributions by providing rest stops, foraging habitat, and stepping stones. These questions could be addressed with further dedicated studies of animal movement in relation to structures using telemetry, molecular techniques and movement models. Our review and these priority questions provide a roadmap for advancing research needed to support evidence‐based decision making for decommissioning O&G infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change scenarios have significant implications for the livelihoods and food security of particular groups in society and will necessitate a range of adaptation actions. While there is a significant literature on the social as well as biophysical factors and limits to adaptation, less is known about the interactions between these, and what such interactions mean for the prospects of achieving sustainable and resilient food systems. This paper is an attempt at addressing this gap by examining changing biophysical and social factors, with specific consideration of vulnerable groups, across four case studies (Ghana, Malawi, Norway and Spain). In each case, future climate change scenarios and associated biophysical limits are mapped onto four key social factors that drive vulnerability and mediate adaptation, namely, scale, history, power and politics, and social differentiation. We then consider what the interaction between biophysical limits and socio‐political dynamics means for the options for and limits to future adaptation, and how climate may interact with, and reshape, socio‐political elements. We find that biophysical limits and socio‐political factors do not operate in isolation, but interact, with dynamic relationships determining the 'space' or set of options for sustainable adaptation. By connecting the perspectives of biophysical and social factors, the study illuminates the risks of unanticipated outcomes that result from the disregard of local contexts in the implementation of adaptation measures. We conclude that a framework focusing on the space for sustainable adaptation conditioned by biophysical and social factors, and their interactions, can help provide evidence on what does and does not constitute sustainable adaptation, and help to counter unhelpful narratives of climate change as a sole or dominant cause of challenges in food systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document is a response to concerns raised by Reershemius and Suhrhoff regarding a study conducted by Kantola et al. The authors of the response acknowledge that Reershemius and Suhrhoff did not find any faults with the derivation in the paper, which they state are factually true. They also mention that Reershemius and Suhrhoff arrived at a similar result in their own unpublished work. The response addresses specific implementation details raised by Reershemius and Suhrhoff and argues that these concerns lack merit. The authors appreciate the constructive engagement and transparency of data. [Extracted from the article]

A multitude of actions to protect, sustainably manage and restore natural and modified ecosystems can have co‐benefits for both climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation. Reducing greenhouse emissions to limit warming to less than 1.5 or 2°C above preindustrial levels, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, can yield strong co‐benefits for land, freshwater and marine biodiversity and reduce amplifying climate feedbacks from ecosystem changes. Not all climate mitigation strategies are equally effective at producing biodiversity co‐benefits, some in fact are counterproductive. Moreover, social implications are often overlooked within the climate‐biodiversity nexus. Protecting biodiverse and carbon‐rich natural environments, ecological restoration of potentially biodiverse and carbon‐rich habitats, the deliberate creation of novel habitats, taking into consideration a locally adapted and meaningful (i.e. full consequences considered) mix of these measures, can result in the most robust win‐win solutions. These can be further enhanced by avoidance of narrow goals, taking long‐term views and minimizing further losses of intact ecosystems. In this review paper, we first discuss various climate mitigation actions that evidence demonstrates can negatively impact biodiversity, resulting in unseen and unintended negative consequences. We then examine climate mitigation actions that co‐deliver biodiversity and societal benefits. We give examples of these win‐win solutions, categorized as 'protect, restore, manage and create', in different regions of the world that could be expanded, upscaled and used for further innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this concept paper, we propose a new view on soil organic matter (SOM) formation: microorganisms use most of the organics entering the soil as energy rather than as a source of carbon (C), while SOM accumulates as a residual by‐product because the microbial energy investment in its decomposition exceeds the energy gain. During the initial stages of decomposition, the nominal oxidation state of C (NOSC) in remaining litter decreases, and the energy content increases. This reflects the rapid mineralization of available compounds with positive and neutral NOSC (carboxylic acids, sugars, some amino acids). Consequently, the NOSC of the remaining compounds drops to −0.3 units, and the oxidation rate decreases due to the residual relative accumulation of aromatic and aliphatic compounds (which are hydrolized later) and entombment of the necromass. Ultimately, incompletely decomposed plant residues will have 1%–2.5% more energy per C unit than the initial litter. The linear decrease in energy density of a broad range of organic substances by 106 kJ mol−1 C per NOSC unit upon oxidation is supported by experimental data on litter decomposition. Preferential recycling of energy‐rich reduced (lipids, aromatics, certain amino acids, amino sugars) and the microbial degradation of oxidized compounds (carboxylic acids) also energetically enrich SOM. Despite the high energy content, the availability of energy stored in SOM is lower than in litter. This explains why SOM is not fully mineralized (thermodynamically unfavorable), especially in the absence of plant C to provide new energy (e.g., in bare soil). Energy from litter activates decomposers to mine nutrients stored in SOM (the main ecological function of priming effects) because the nutrient content in SOM is 2–5 times higher than that of litter. This results in only 0.4%–5% year−1 of litter‐derived C being sequestered in SOM, whereas SOM stores 1%–10% year−1 of the total litter‐derived energy. Thus, the energy captured by photosynthesis is the main reason why microorganisms utilize organic matter, whereby SOM is merely a residual by‐product of nutrient storage and a mediator of energy fluxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The denitrification process profoundly affects soil nitrogen (N) availability and generates its byproduct, nitrous oxide, as a potent greenhouse gas. There are large uncertainties in predicting global denitrification because its controlling factors remain elusive. In this study, we compiled 4301 observations of denitrification rates across a variety of terrestrial ecosystems from 214 papers published in the literature. The averaged denitrification rate was 3516.3 ± 91.1 µg N kg−1 soil day−1. The highest denitrification rate was 4242.3 ± 152.3 µg N kg−1 soil day−1 under humid subtropical climates, and the lowest was 965.8 ± 150.4 µg N kg−1 under dry climates. The denitrification rate increased with temperature, precipitation, soil carbon and N contents, as well as microbial biomass carbon and N, but decreased with soil clay contents. The variables related to soil N contents (e.g., nitrate, ammonium, and total N) explained the variation of denitrification more than climatic and edaphic variables (e.g., mean annual temperature (MAT), soil moisture, soil pH, and clay content) according to structural equation models. Soil microbial biomass carbon, which was influenced by soil nitrate, ammonium, and total N, also strongly influenced denitrification at a global scale. Collectively, soil N contents, microbial biomass, pH, texture, moisture, and MAT accounted for 60% of the variation in global denitrification rates. The findings suggest that soil N contents and microbial biomass are strong predictors of denitrification at the global scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It remains unclear how warming will affect resource flows during soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition, in part due to uncertainty in how exoenzymes produced by microbes and roots will function. Rising temperatures can enhance the activity of most exoenzymes, but soil pH can impose limitations on their catalytic efficiency. The effects of temperature and pH on enzyme activity are often examined in environmental samples, but purified enzyme kinetics reveal fundamental attributes of enzymes' intrinsic temperature responses and how relative release of decay‐liberated resources (their flow ratios) can change with environmental conditions. In this paper, we illuminate the principle that fundamental, biochemical limitations on SOM release of C, N, and P during decay, and differential exoenzymes' responses to the environment, can exert biosphere‐scale significance on the stoichiometry of bioavailable soil resources. To that end, we combined previously published intrinsic temperature sensitivities of two hydrolytic enzymes that release C and N during decay with a novel data set characterizing the kinetics of a P‐releasing enzyme (acid phosphatase) across an ecologically relevant pH gradient. We use these data to estimate potential change in the flow ratios derived from these three enzymes' activities (C:N, C:P, and N:P) at the global scale by the end of the century, based on temperature projections and soil pH distribution. Our results highlight how the temperature sensitivity of these hydrolytic enzymes and the influence of pH on that sensitivity can govern the relative availability of bioavailable resources derived from these enzymes. The work illuminates the utility of weaving well‐defined kinetic constraints of microbes' exoenzymes into models that incorporate changing SOM inputs and composition, nutrient availability, and microbial functioning into their efforts to project terrestrial ecosystem functioning in a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land‐use changes and the expansion of protected areas (PAs) have amplified the interaction between protected and unprotected areas worldwide. In this context, 'interface processes' (human–nature and cross‐boundary interactions inside and around PAs) have become central to issues around the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This scientific literature review aimed to explore current knowledge and research gaps on interface processes regarding terrestrial PAs. At first, 3,515 references related to the topic were extracted through a standardized search on the Web of Science and analyzed with scientometric techniques. Next, a full‐text analysis was conducted on a sample of 240 research papers. A keyword analysis revealed a wide diversity of research topics, from 'pure' ecology to sociopolitical research. We found a bias in the geographical distribution of research, with half the papers focusing on eight countries. Additionally, we found that the spatial extent of cross‐boundary interactions was rarely assessed, preventing any clear delimitation of PA interactive zones. In the 240 research papers we scanned, we identified 403 processes that were studied. The ecological effects of PAs were well documented and appeared to be positive overall. In contrast, the effects of PAs on local communities were understudied and, according to the literature focusing on these, were very variable according to local contexts. Our findings highlight key research advances on interface processes, especially regarding the ecological outcomes of PAs, the influence of human activities on biodiversity, and PA governance issues. In contrast, main knowledge gaps concern the spatial extent of interactive zones, as well as the interactions between local people and conservation actions and how to promote synergies between them. While the review was limited to terrestrial PAs, its findings allow us to propose research priorities for tackling environmental and socioeconomic challenges in the face of a rapidly changing world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought, widely studied as an important driver of ecosystem dynamics, is predicted to increase in frequency and severity globally. To study drought, ecologists must define or at least operationalize what constitutes a drought. How this is accomplished in practice is unclear, particularly given that climatologists have long struggled to agree on definitions of drought, beyond general variants of "an abnormal deficiency of water." We conducted a literature review of ecological drought studies (564 papers) to assess how ecologists describe and study drought. We found that ecologists characterize drought in a wide variety of ways (reduced precipitation, low soil moisture, reduced streamflow, etc.), but relatively few publications (~32%) explicitly define what are, and are not, drought conditions. More troubling, a surprising number of papers (~30%) simply equated "dry conditions" with "drought" and provided little characterization of the drought conditions studied. For a subset of these, we calculated Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index values for the reported drought periods. We found that while almost 90% of the studies were conducted under conditions quantifiable as slightly to extremely drier than average, ~50% were within the range of normal climatic variability. We conclude that the current state of the ecological drought literature hinders synthesis and our ability to draw broad ecological inferences because drought is often declared but is not explicitly defined or well characterized. We suggest that future drought publications provide at least one of the following: (a) the climatic context of the drought period based on long‐term records; (b) standardized climatic index values; (c) published metrics from drought‐monitoring organizations; (d) a quantitative definition of what the authors consider to be drought conditions for their system. With more detailed and consistent quantification of drought conditions, comparisons among studies can be more rigorous, increasing our understanding of the ecological effects of drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil gross nitrogen (N) mineralization (GNM), a key microbial process in the global N cycle, is mainly controlled by climate and soil properties. This study provides for the first time a comprehensive analysis of the role of soil physicochemical properties and climate and their interactions with soil microbial biomass (MB) in controlling GNM globally. Through a meta‐analysis of 970 observations from 337 published papers from various ecosystems, we found that GNM was positively correlated with MB, total carbon, total N and precipitation, and negatively correlated with bulk density (BD) and soil pH. Our multivariate analysis and structural equation modeling revealed that GNM is driven by MB and dominantly influenced by BD and precipitation. The higher total N accelerates GNM via increasing MB. The decrease in BD stimulates GNM via increasing total N and MB, whereas higher precipitation stimulates GNM via increasing total N. Moreover, the GNM varies with ecosystem type, being greater in forests and grasslands with high total carbon and MB contents and low BD and pH compared to croplands. The highest GNM was observed in tropical wet soils that receive high precipitation, which increases the supply of soil substrate (total N) to microbes. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic activities that affect soil microbial population size, BD, soil substrate availability, or soil pH may interact with changes in precipitation regime and land use to influence GNM, which may ultimately affect ecosystem productivity and N loss to the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land‐use change is considered the greatest threat to nature, having caused worldwide declines in the abundance, diversity, and health of species and ecosystems. Despite increasing research on this global change driver, there are still challenges to forming an effective synthesis. The estimated impact of land‐use change on biodiversity can depend on location, research methods, and taxonomic focus, with recent global meta‐analyses reaching disparate conclusions. Here, we critically appraise this research body and our ability to reach a reliable consensus. We employ named entity recognition to analyze more than 4000 abstracts, alongside full reading of 100 randomly selected papers. We highlight the broad range of study designs and methodologies used; the most common being local space‐for‐time comparisons that classify land use in situ. Species metrics including abundance, distribution, and diversity were measured more frequently than complex responses such as demography, vital rates, and behavior. We identified taxonomic biases, with vertebrates well represented while detritivores were largely missing. Omitting this group may hinder our understanding of how land‐use change affects ecosystem feedback. Research was heavily biased toward temperate forested biomes in North America and Europe, with warmer regions being acutely underrepresented despite offering potential insights into the future effects of land‐use change under novel climates. Various land‐use histories were covered, although more research in understudied regions including Africa and the Middle East is required to capture regional differences in the form of current and historical land‐use practices. Failure to address these challenges will impede our global understanding of land‐use change impacts on biodiversity, limit the reliability of future projections and have repercussions for the conservation of threatened species. Beyond identifying literature biases, we highlight the research priorities and data gaps that need urgent attention and offer perspectives on how to move forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Treatment effects are traditionally quantified in controlled experiments. However, experimental control is often achieved at the expense of representativeness. Here, we present a data‐driven reciprocal modelling framework to quantify the individual effects of environmental treatments under field conditions. The framework requires a representative survey data set describing the treatment (A or B), its responding target variable and other environmental properties that cause variability of the target within the region or population studied. A machine learning model is trained to predict the target only based on observations in group A. This model is then applied to group B, with predictions restricted to the model's space of applicability. The resulting residuals represent case‐specific effect size estimates and thus provide a quantification of treatment effects. This paper illustrates the new concept of such data‐driven reciprocal modelling to estimate spatially explicit effects of land‐use change on organic carbon stocks in European agricultural soils. For many environmental treatments, the proposed concept can provide accurate effect size estimates that are more representative than could feasibly ever be achieved with controlled experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the prospects of low short‐term emissions reduction, carbon removals (CDRs) are expected to play an important role in achieving ambitious mitigation targets in future scenarios of integrated assessment models (IAMs), particularly Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). In this paper, we explore the IAMC 1.5℃ database to depict the characteristics of the two main CDR options present in mitigation scenarios: BECCS and afforestation/reforestation. We apply a linear mixed‐effect model to capture the specific regional and cross‐IAM effects. Results reveal that the distribution of BECCS and afforestation deployment differs across IAMs and regions and, to a second extent, time. BECCS is preferred in the scenarios not for its ability to expand energy use but actually because it appears as an alternative to afforestation, which is associated with a decrease in energy use. However, the regional distribution of CDR deployment does not show a common pattern across scenarios and IAMs. Therefore, a more comprehensive investigation is needed before it can support policy proposals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an increasing evidence that smallholder farms contribute substantially to food production globally, yet spatially explicit data on agricultural field sizes are currently lacking. Automated field size delineation using remote sensing or the estimation of average farm size at subnational level using census data are two approaches that have been used. However, both have limitations, for example, automatic field size delineation using remote sensing has not yet been implemented at a global scale while the spatial resolution is very coarse when using census data. This paper demonstrates a unique approach to quantifying and mapping agricultural field size globally using crowdsourcing. A campaign was run in June 2017, where participants were asked to visually interpret very high resolution satellite imagery from Google Maps and Bing using the Geo‐Wiki application. During the campaign, participants collected field size data for 130 K unique locations around the globe. Using this sample, we have produced the most accurate global field size map to date and estimated the percentage of different field sizes, ranging from very small to very large, in agricultural areas at global, continental, and national levels. The results show that smallholder farms occupy up to 40% of agricultural areas globally, which means that, potentially, there are many more smallholder farms in comparison with the two different current global estimates of 12% and 24%. The global field size map and the crowdsourced data set are openly available and can be used for integrated assessment modeling, comparative studies of agricultural dynamics across different contexts, for training and validation of remote sensing field size delineation, and potential contributions to the Sustainable Development Goal of Ending hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture. This paper demonstrates a unique approach to quantifying and mapping agricultural field size globally using crowdsourcing. A campaign was run in June 2017 where participants were asked to visually interpret very high resolution satellite imagery from Google Maps and Bing using the Geo‐Wiki application. The results show that smallholder farms occupy up to 40% of agricultural areas globally, which means that, potentially, there are many more smallholder farms in comparison with the two different current global estimates of 12% and 24%. The global field size map and the crowdsourced data set are openly available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and increased anthropogenic activities are expected to elevate the potential of introducing nonindigenous species (NIS) into the Arctic. Yet, the knowledge base needed to identify gaps and priorities for NIS research and management is limited. Here, we reviewed primary introduction events to each ecoregion of the marine Arctic realm to identify temporal and spatial patterns, likely source regions of NIS, and the putative introduction pathways. We included 54 introduction events representing 34 unique NIS. The rate of NIS discovery ranged from zero to four species per year between 1960 and 2015. The Iceland Shelf had the greatest number of introduction events (n = 14), followed by the Barents Sea (n = 11), and the Norwegian Sea (n = 11). Sixteen of the 54 introduction records had no known origins. The majority of those with known source regions were attributed to the Northeast Atlantic and the Northwest Pacific, 19 and 14 records, respectively. Some introduction events were attributed to multiple possible pathways. For these introductions, vessels transferred the greatest number of aquatic NIS (39%) to the Arctic, followed by natural spread (30%) and aquaculture activities (25%). Similar trends were found for introductions attributed to a single pathway. The phyla Arthropoda and Ochrophyta had the highest number of recorded introduction events, with 19 and 12 records, respectively. Recommendations including vector management, horizon scanning, early detection, rapid response, and a pan‐Arctic biodiversity inventory are considered in this paper. Our study provides a comprehensive record of primary introductions of NIS for marine environments in the circumpolar Arctic and identifies knowledge gaps and opportunities for NIS research and management. Ecosystems worldwide will face dramatic changes in the coming decades due to global change. Our findings contribute to the knowledge base needed to address two aspects of global change—invasive species and climate change. This paper examines the current status and future risks of biological invasions in the marine environments of the Arctic, within the context of climate change, natural resource development, and expanded Arctic shipping. The number of nonindigenous species introductions varied across the region with the greatest number of introductions recorded in the Iceland Shelf, followed by the Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea. Most introductions were attributed to vessels, natural spread, and aquaculture activities. Vector management, horizon scanning, early detection, rapid response, and a pan‐Arctic biodiversity inventory are recommended to address future invasion risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystems integrity and services are threatened by anthropogenic global changes. Mitigating and adapting to these changes require knowledge of ecosystem functioning in the expected novel environments, informed in large part through experimentation and modelling. This paper describes 13 advanced controlled environment facilities for experimental ecosystem studies, herein termed ecotrons, open to the international community. Ecotrons enable simulation of a wide range of natural environmental conditions in replicated and independent experimental units while measuring various ecosystem processes. This capacity to realistically control ecosystem environments is used to emulate a variety of climatic scenarios and soil conditions, in natural sunlight or through broad‐spectrum lighting. The use of large ecosystem samples, intact or reconstructed, minimizes border effects and increases biological and physical complexity. Measurements of concentrations of greenhouse trace gases as well as their net exchange between the ecosystem and the atmosphere are performed in most ecotrons, often quasi continuously. The flow of matter is often tracked with the use of stable isotope tracers of carbon and other elements. Equipment is available for measurements of soil water status as well as root and canopy growth. The experiments ran so far emphasize the diversity of the hosted research. Half of them concern global changes, often with a manipulation of more than one driver. About a quarter deal with the impact of biodiversity loss on ecosystem functioning and one quarter with ecosystem or plant physiology. We discuss how the methodology for environmental simulation and process measurements, especially in soil, can be improved and stress the need to establish stronger links with modelling in future projects. These developments will enable further improvements in mechanistic understanding and predictive capacity of ecotron research which will play, in complementarity with field experimentation and monitoring, a crucial role in exploring the ecosystem consequences of environmental changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The necessary reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may lead in the future to an increase in solar irradiance (solar brightening). Anthropogenic aerosols (and their precursors) that cause solar dimming are in fact often co‐emitted with GHGs. While the reduction of GHG emissions is expected to slow down the ongoing increase in the greenhouse effect, an increased surface irradiance due to reduced atmospheric aerosol load might occur in the most populated areas of the earth. Increased irradiance may lead to air warming, favour the occurrence of heatwaves and increase the evaporative demand of the atmosphere. This is why effective and sustainable solar radiation management strategies to reflect more light back to space should be designed, tested and implemented together with GHG emission mitigation. Here we propose that new plants (crops, orchards and forests) with low‐chlorophyll (Chl) content may provide a realistic, sustainable and relatively simple solution to increase surface reflectance of large geographical areas via changes in surface albedo. This may finally offset all or part of the expected local solar brightening. While high‐Chl content provides substantial competitive advantages to plants growing in their natural environment, new plants with low‐Chl content may be successfully used in agriculture and silviculture and be as productive as the green wildtypes (or even more). The most appropriate strategies to obtain highly productive and highly reflective plants are discussed in this paper and their mitigation potential is examined together with the challenges associated with their introduction in agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land‐use change is a significant cause of anthropogenic extinctions, which are likely to continue and accelerate as habitat conversion proceeds in most biomes. One way to understand the effects of habitat loss on biodiversity is through improved tools for predicting the number and identity of species losses in response to habitat loss. There are relatively few methods for predicting extinctions and even fewer opportunities for rigorously assessing the quality of these predictions. In this paper, we address these issues by applying a new method based on rarefaction to predict species losses after random, but aggregated, habitat loss. We compare predictions from three rarefaction models, individual‐based, sample‐based, and spatially clustered, to those derived from a commonly used extinction estimation method, the species–area relationship (SAR). We apply each method to a mesocosm experiment, in which we aim to predict species richness and extinctions of arthropods immediately following 50% habitat loss. While each model produced strikingly accurate predictions of species richness immediately after the habitat loss disturbance, each model significantly underestimated the number of extinctions occurring at both the local (within‐mesocosm) and regional (treatment‐wide) scales. Despite the stochastic nature of our small‐scale, short‐term, and randomly applied habitat loss experiment, we found surprisingly clear evidence for extinction selectivity, for example, when abundant species with low extinction probabilities were extirpated following habitat loss. The important role played by selective extinction even in this contrived experimental system suggests that ecologically driven, trait‐based extinctions play an equally important role to stochastic extinction, even when the disturbance itself has no clear selectivity. As a result, neutrally stochastic null models such as the SAR and rarefaction are likely to underestimate extinctions caused by habitat loss. Nevertheless, given the difficulty of predicting extinctions, null models provide useful benchmarks for conservation planning by providing minimum estimates and probabilities of species extinctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peatlands are carbon‐rich ecosystems that cover 185–423 million hectares (Mha) of the earth's surface. The majority of the world's peatlands are in temperate and boreal zones, whereas tropical ones cover only a total area of 90–170 Mha. However, there are still considerable uncertainties in C stock estimates as well as a lack of information about depth, bulk density and carbon accumulation rates. The incomplete data are notable especially in tropical peatlands located in South America, which are estimated to have the largest area of peatlands in the tropical zone. This paper displays the current state of knowledge surrounding tropical peatlands and their biophysical characteristics, distribution and carbon stock, role in the global climate, the impacts of direct human disturbances on carbon accumulation rates and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Based on the new peat extension and depth data, we estimate that tropical peatlands store 152–288 Gt C, or about half of the global peatland emitted carbon. We discuss the knowledge gaps in research on distribution, depth, C stock and fluxes in these ecosystems which play an important role in the global carbon cycle and risk releasing large quantities of GHGs into the atmosphere (CO2 and CH4) when subjected to anthropogenic interferences (e.g., drainage and deforestation). Recent studies show that although climate change has an impact on the carbon fluxes of these ecosystems, the direct anthropogenic disturbance may play a greater role. The future of these systems as carbon sinks will depend on advancing current scientific knowledge and incorporating local understanding to support policies geared toward managing and conserving peatlands in vulnerable regions, such as the Amazon where recent records show increased forest fires and deforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]