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This paper analyses the socio-demographic attributes and political attitudes of protesters in Germany. In doing so, the paper studies participation at demonstrations, one of the key forms of non-electoral political participation in Germany and a central political arena in which to negotiate political and cultural conflicts. Methodologically, we draw on original data from nine protest surveys collected between 2003 and 2020. The demonstrations under scrutiny address a wide variety of issues such as peace, climate change, global justice, immigration, international trade and social policy. Analysing protesters' profiles, we focus on differences both within and across demonstrations. We show that demonstrators' socio-demographic and attitudinal characteristics diverge considerably across the surveyed demonstrations. In particular, we identify two clusters of demonstrations, differing most prominently regarding participants' political trust, satisfaction with democracy, and perceptions of self-efficacy – the 'disenchanted critics' and the 'confident critics'. Based on a regression analysis across all nine demonstrations, we further show that the distinction of these two demonstration clusters is not the result of the presence or absence of certain groups of demonstrators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most observers point to the importance of short-time work (Kurzarbeit) as one of the key explanations for Germany's stellar employment performance during the economic downturn in 2008–09. In this paper, I reveal previously unidentified causal mechanisms that have led to the widespread application of Kurzarbeit: the Christian Democrats' embrace of the Social Market Economy, the formation of an 'informal' neo-corporatist alliance, the well-functioning communication channels within the public employment service and social partner organisations, and the 'watch dog' role of firm-level metal labour unions. This paper also reflects on the state of Germany's coordinated market economy despite the neoliberal discourse at European level, its labour market responses to the Corona pandemic of 2020, and the possible lessons for the Italian case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explains the extent to which the export-led growth strategies deployed in Germany and Italy turn out to be self-defeating. The problem lies in the impact of those strategies on the banking systems of the two countries. The German banks become more international; the Italian banks become more locally oriented. In turn, these changes create tensions that cannot be reconciled easily within the institutional framework that made the export-led growth model successful in the first place. The paper also seeks to explain why tensions in export-led growth models today do not always resemble those it experienced in the past – and it examines what are the implications both for how the two countries responded to the economic and financial crisis and how they are responding to the economic consequences of the novel coronavirus pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The new electoral law in the state of Hamburg, which was first used in the 2011 elections for the state parliament, abolished the optional overall list vote in the electoral districts and thus forced voters to cast preference votes for individual candidates. Supporters of the new electoral law assume that voters will inform themselves better about the candidates. This assumption contrasts with the voters' tendency to choose their favourite option based on the little information which is provided on the ballot paper. We show that the new electoral law has missed its target and that voters rely heavily on the ballot paper cues, resulting in the replication of the behaviour pattern they were used to under the optional list vote and earlier under the closed list. Most importantly the ballot position has the largest effect on being elected to the parliament. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares the evolution of critical characteristics of the party systems in Eastern and Western Germany since unification. While the institutionalisation hypothesis implies that the party system in Eastern Germany should adjust towards its Western German counterpart, the ongoing dealignment suggests a loosening of party-voter-linkages and, ultimately, non-institutionalisation in Eastern Germany and party system de-institutionalisation in Western Germany. However, both hypotheses predict a convergence. Against the backdrop of persisting regional differences in party strengths, a third hypothesis assumes that Eastern and Western Germany still have two distinct party systems thirty years after reunification. Using election results and survey data since the 1990s, we inspect the development of five indicators of party systems – volatility, vote-switching, electoral availability, fragmentation, and differences in vote shares – in light of the hypotheses. There are three main results: First, most of the indicators point to party system institutionalisation in Eastern Germany and convergence to Western Germany in the 1990s. Second, for the last 20 years or so, the indicators point to parallel developments of dealignment and partial party system de-institutionalisation. Third, regarding the specific parties and their vote shares, there has been no convergence between Eastern and Western Germany. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies of economic voting suggest that beyond the traditional valence conception of voters rewarding or punishing incumbent administrations for economic performance, there are patrimonial (assets) and positional (economic policy) dimensions to the economic vote too. To date, investigations of economic voting in Germany have primarily concentrated on the valence model. Using the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems Module 4 component included in the 2013 German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES), our paper examines the multifaceted nature of economic voting in Germany. Our analysis reveals there are patrimonial and positional economic dimensions to the vote in Germany, implying that the compleat economic voter is also a German phenomenon. Beyond contributing to studies of German voting behaviour, our paper breaks new ground by unpacking individual heterogeneity associated with patrimonial and positional economic voting. We demonstrate political sophistication moderates to some extent the prevalence of asset motivated and economic policy voting. Patrimonial voting is somewhat more likely among the less politically sophisticated, while positional economic voting is somewhat more probable among highly sophisticated citizens. Our study confirms the multidimensionality of economic voting and also highlights the conditionality of patrimonial and positional economic voting is an individual level phenomenon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines why the German Free Democratic Party (FDP) failed to gain electoral success in 2013 despite being well positioned in terms of left–right ideology. Indeed, its vote share dropped from its highest ever point in 2009 (14.6 per cent of the national vote) to its lowest ever in 2013 (4.8 per cent of the vote). The paper shows that the FDP’s valence dropped dramatically between 2009 and 2013. In addition, voting simulations show that the FDP was positioned close to its vote-maximising positions on policy and ideology. However, given the FDP’s extremely low valence it could not have taken any set of policy positions that would have significantly increased its vote share. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Presents a study which examined the role of the mass media in the political process in Germany. Discussion of issue selection and the selective emphasis on certain aspects of an issue as central to the process of opinion formation by the media; Content analysis of press editorials in Germany between 1994 and 1998; Findings of the study.

Electoral systems are a fundamental feature of any democratic system, and the design of an electoral system can have a tremendous impact on party-, candidate-, and voter-behaviour. However, in order to use all features of an electoral system as intended, voters must have a clear understanding of how their electoral system actually works. While earlier studies have already shown that many German voters have limited knowledge about the characteristics of their electoral systems, we shift the focus to the more fundamental understanding of electoral systems' objectives. Therefore, this paper addresses the question of how competent voters are in understanding and applying six core functions of electoral systems: (1) proportionality, (2) minority representation, (3) party system concentration, (4) personalisation, (5) legitimacy, and (6) comprehensibility. Based on an original representative survey of German citizens, we demonstrate that only a minority of the electorate is competent enough to capture these functions. We further demonstrate how education and political interest influence voters' understanding of electoral systems. While the political logic of compromises in electoral reforms tends to create electoral systems of growing complexity, our findings strongly suggest policymakers must bear in mind voters' limited resources and capabilities to fully understand electoral systems' functions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When the Covid-19 pandemic hit internationally in March 2020, governments and political incumbents received exceptionally high approval ratings. Such a sudden spike of public support in times of crisis is often explained as the 'rally 'round the flag' effect. This paper has three goals: first, to examine whether a rally effect indeed occurred; second, to analyse whether and how much it is related to (i) affectedness, i.e. the occurrence of infections on individual and aggregate level, and (ii) fear of Covid-19; and third, to examine an assumed moderating effect of partisanship. We merged individual survey data from an online survey conducted in September 2020 as part of the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) with infection rates on the state level (Bundesländer) published by the Robert Koch Institute. We detect a striking rally effect in all partisan camps. Furthermore, we identify fear of Covid-19 as the driving mechanism while there is no evidence that affectedness is a major force behind the rally effect. Furthermore, we show that partisanship takes on a moderating role for fear of Covid-19 regarding satisfaction with government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While communication generally embodies an essential part of public leadership, this is even more true in times of crisis when uncertainty prevails, and the public expects the leader not only to take adequate measures to mitigate the crisis, but also to justify and explain these measures. In the COVID-19 pandemic, Angela Merkel's communication differed from other Western political leaders who strongly relied on a war narrative. This paper focuses on the framing by the German Chancellor during the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic (March--July 2020). We examine Merkel's crisis communication in three different public arenas: her public speeches, her press conference appearances and her weekly podcasts. Based on a qualitative content analysis, our study provides three relevant insights. First, it proves that the claim for solidarity -- national as well as European solidarity - represents the crucial element of Merkel's meaning-making narrative. Second, the study shows that both statements on the protection of public health and of economy strongly resonate in her communication, but that the prioritisation shifted over time. Finally, our analysis manifests how Merkel's framing differs in the three communicative arenas. Additionally, our findings indicate that Merkel followed a modified leadership style during the COVID- 19 crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As one of the founding states of the European Union (EU) and a long-standing member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), Germany has made significant contributions to both organisations and to European security. Despite being frequently accused as a free rider, this article claims that Germany takes the position of balancer in the EU-NATO relationship whereby it facilitates cooperation through mediating between both organisations and their member states. This article analyses Germany's role and conceptualises it as balancer in interorganisational relations. As a member of both organisations, the debates concern how Germany can make effective use of its geographical, cultural and economic positions to contribute to European security. It takes a 'midstream' position in which it balances between the EU and NATO and among other member states. This article argues that due to its expansive network of bilateral and minilateral relations, Germany emphasises its role as balancer by using its diplomatic skills to broker among fellow member states. A well-working and amicable EU-NATO relationship is indispensable for its own interests. This paper therefore takes into account its particular position and capabilities as well as its multilateral linkages to examine how Germany positions itself as balancer in the EU-NATO relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the financial crisis at the end of the last decade, Germany is regarded again as a successful coordinated market economy. However, a closer look at labour and working conditions reveals disturbing phenomena like an increase of psychical stress, growing shares of low wage employment or the erosion of collective bargaining or works councils' coverage. Finance capitalism has become the most popular concept among German sociologists to explain why and how industrial relations and working conditions have been put under pressure in the last one or two decades. But how coherent is the finance capitalism story? This question is tackled in the paper, based on literature review and empirical findings. The paper argues that the concept is overexpanded and that, first, financial market capitalism is refractured by agency and actors on different instituitonal levels and that, second, there are other and independent developments influencing industrial relations like globalisation or the deregulation of labour markets that have to be taken into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies party-movement interactions in Germany, focusing on Die Linke and the AfD, the two most recent additions to Germany's multi-party system. The electoral rise of both challenger parties went along with mass protests, opposition to Hartz IV in the mid-2000s and anti-Islamic PEGIDA mobilisation in the mid-2010s. We shift the emphasis from how social movements turn into political parties, including significant organisational and personal overlap, to more indirect ways of how protest and electoral politics interact. Specifically, we identify a process composed of two interrelated mechanisms: an external politicisation spiral and an intra-party innovation spiral. We show how mass protest triggers both discursive shifts in the public sphere and internal strategic realignment, providing an opportunity for parties to ride the wave, secure their competitive advantages, and mobilise on the protestors' grievances in the electoral arena. In such a way, challenger parties can take advantage of street protests even when they do not directly emerge from a movement. Methodologically, the article is based on a paired comparison, relying on survey data and an original protest event analysis that provides novel data on anti-Hartz IV and PEGIDA protest mobilisation in Germany. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the third-largest exporting country in the world, Germany is a clear beneficiary and proponent of free trade. Few, therefore, expected the magnitude of contention that emerged within Germany during the negotiations between the EU and the United States for a transatlantic trade deal (TTIP). This paper explores the politicisation process of TTIP within the context of the broader transformations of German politics including not only the entry of new issues and new players in the electoral and protest arenas but also the increased hybridisation of forms of protest. Theoretically, we draw on the 'Players and Arenas' framework to put forward a sequential, strategic interactionist approach to the unfolding process of politicisation, in which various types of players face dilemmas when interacting with each other over time. Applying this analytical framework to the politicisation of TTIP in Germany, we reveal previously overlooked players, interactions and dilemmas, while opening up multiple opportunities for empirical analysis of cases beyond this area. We show how the politicisation of TTIP brought about an important intensification of relations between Germany's protest and electoral arenas, and confronted all players involved with choices with long-lasting consequences for both mobilisation and coalition building dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the connection between economic context, voters’ individual assessment of the economy, and party identification, taking the German national elections of 2009 as an example. Based on the results of multinomial and multilevel regression models, the article shows that partisanship moderates how the economy affects the vote. In cases of increasing unemployment in the constituency, voters are less likely to vote for the Social Democrats instead of the CDU and the opposition. This effect is particularly strong amongst voters who report that they identify with the Social Democrats. Regarding the effect of voters’ assessment of the national economy, the results are different. In this case, a better evaluation of the regional economy increases the probability to vote for right-wing parties – notably amongst voters without partisanship. These findings suggest that the moderating effect of partisanship on the economy’s impact on voting behaviour should not be overestimated. What is more, this analysis implies that research on economic voting should always account for both contextual factors and voters’ personal assessment of the economy, as these measures reveal different dimensions of economic voting. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Since the beginning of Angela Merkel's chancellorship, German care policy changed considerably. Social policy has gained in prominence and this has affected people with caring responsibilities. Against this background, this paper compares childcare and elderly care policies in terms of gender equality. We focus on policy measures introduced and implemented during the Merkel era and we consider Chancellor Merkel's role in shaping these policies. Based on interviews with parents of young children as well as male and female elderly carers, our analysis discusses the impacts of Merkel-era care policies on lived experiences. We concentrate on effects on caregivers' employment status (maintaining, reducing, or leaving gainful employment for caring). Furthermore, we focus on gender equality effects depending on socio-economic status (SES). The comparison of both policy fields shows that gender in/equality and the gendered division of labour are essentially moderated by Merkel's way of facilitating reconciliation policies. We argue that recent childcare and elderly care policies particularly address middle-class caregivers. In both fields, care policies offer a framework that is used, interpreted, and negotiated differently by individuals, couples, and families, depending on their SES and existing gender norms. Consequently, Merkel-era care policies can reinforce or mitigate gender inequalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Marriage Equality Act (2017) provides an example for Chancellor Angela Merkel's strategy of 'leading from behind' in the form of evolved facilitation as she changed her stance from publicly resisting to enabling this policy. Merkel's objections against marriage equality were shared by large parts of the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU): A draft version of the bill was postponed for two years in the justice committee due to internal conflicts in the CDU/CSU. Scholars argue that Merkel's shift from blocking to enabling the reform has been influenced by international as well as domestic developments. The focus of this paper is on a domestic factor that has been neglected so far, namely interactions between the far right and the conservative camp. Based on data from a case study on 'anti-gender' mobilisations against marriage equality in Germany and their influence on the parliamentary process, this article analyses shifts in the conservative camp. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European research has largely ignored the role that religion has played in the recent growth of right-wing populist (RWP) parties. In this paper we focus on how religiosity affects electoral support for RWP parties in Germany. Based on a tripartite concept of religiosity (religious practice, religious affiliation, and religious beliefs), we assume that the effect of religiosity is mediated by two intervening determinants of RWP support, namely, anti-immigrant attitudes and party identification. The existing studies have not covered Germany because until recently no significant RWP party existed. To test our hypotheses, we use pooled data from the Long-term Online Tracking of the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES). The results show that anti-immigrant attitudes are strongly correlated with RWP support and that citizens with party identification are less likely to vote for an RWP party. More importantly, religiosity influences the RWP vote because, first, church attendance is negatively correlated with anti-immigrant attitudes, and, second, all dimensions of religiosity are positively associated with identification with established parties. Our results confirm the thesis that religiosity tends to indirectly 'immunise' citizens against voting for RWP parties. We conclude that the recent success of RWP parties in East Germany is partly due to advanced secularisation in this part of the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I present an election forecasting approach to predict the vote share of the governing coalition in German national elections. The model is composed of two independent prediction components: the first is based on poll data, the second on fundamental variables. Both approaches have their advantages and disadvantages when used in isolation. The basic idea is to use both and find a better informed overall forecast. The predictions are combined using a shrinkage estimator, where the predictions are weighted by their respective prediction uncertainty. The uncertainty of the poll prediction is modelled time-dependent. The result is a dynamic model allowing for predictions longer before the elections highly relying on fundamental variables. With the elections coming closer predictions rely more and more on the polling data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last two decades, the German political economy has increasingly relied on export specialisation as a strategy for economic recovery. This export-led development strategy turned out to be a mixed blessing. While, on the one hand, specialisation in high-quality manufactured goods has preserved Germany’s competitive edge vis-à-vis many other industrialised countries, it has, on the other hand, led to an increasing dependency on exports as the engine for growth. There has been no equally strong evolution of a domestic service economy beyond manufacturing-related services. The issue of export dependency becomes increasingly important in light of the financial crisis and global imbalances, vis-à-vis Greece and the Eurozone but also globally. Weak aggregate demand depresses both domestic employment and endangers the still fragile construction of the Eurozone. The paper argues that Germany finds itself in an export-dependency trap due to imbalances between domestic services and export-driven manufacturing. It analyses three sources for the over-reliance on export-oriented manufacturing and weak employment in domestic services: firstly, the industrial relations system, secondly, the social insurance financing of the welfare state and thirdly, fiscal federalism. All three are fundamental pillars of the German political economy and locked into political coalitions that are not easily changed. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The article examines the impact of organised interests on the passage of legislation in the German Bundestag through an empirical analysis of the position papers presented in the public hearings of its standing committees in 2011. These committees are the most important forums to revise legislative proposals. Drawing on resource dependency theory, we employ GLM regression analyses to study if interest groups act as change agents that bring legislation closer to their own policy preferences. Controlling for institutional and bill characteristics, we discuss two major findings that shed light on the role of interest groups in legislation. First, business groups' opposition to government bills triggers legislative changes because their members control the means of production and make investment decisions. In contrast, fundamental opposition of non-business groups has no impact. Second, bills debated and opposed by a greater number of interest groups undergo more changes pointing to the importance of the density of interest groups and balance of opinions on a proposal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Banking union is arguably the most important EU reform since the Maastricht Treaty, transferring substantial authority to European regulators and taking a significant step toward fiscal union. However, it remains incomplete, as Germany has repeatedly blocked progress on the European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS). This opposition contrasts with German support for an expansive Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) and limited Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM). This paper explains the inconsistent German position on banking union's components by examining the interests of the different elements of the German banking industry in a multi-level governance perspective. While the savings banks and cooperatives have staunchly opposed any form of banking union, preferring local regulation, the commercial banks' position is more complex. They saw the SSM as a way to eliminate their competitors' national or local regulatory advantages both within Germany and elsewhere in Europe. The SRM similarly offered benefits for large banks by ensuring that resolution was funded at the European level. However, EDIS threatened their private deposit insurance scheme, so they joined with the other German banks in opposing its development. In doing so, they blocked completion of banking union. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do political parties position themselves neutrally on policy issues for strategic reasons and, if so, why? We conceptualise neutral position-taking as strategic responses made by parties to reconcile several conflicting political objectives simultaneously and theorise why these actors should take such a position. The empirical focus lies on the Christian Democratic Union's (CDU) position-taking on the policy topic of agricultural biotechnology at the federal and regional levels (Thuringia) in Germany. The results show that parties take neutral positions and do this for various reasons. The federal CDU took a neutral position in 2017 in order to reconcile its moderate GMO agenda with its objective of forming a coalition with the Greens and to respond to the increasingly diverging policy preferences of its regional branches. The Thuringian CDU took neutral positions from 1999 to 2009 in order to reconcile its pro-GMO agenda with its aspirations for forming coalitions with the SPD and to reduce electoral losses that might result from anti-GMO sentiment. The paper shows that neutral position-taking represents a real phenomenon of partisan activity. Hence, rather than ignoring supposed non-positions, scholars should consider the possibility that these may actually represent neutral stances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 1989 the building of new Polish-German relations has been carried out in the dimensions of both time (historical reconciliation) and space (reintegration eastern and western parts of Europe). This determines their fundamental importance for contemporary Europe. This article presents an analysis of Polish-German relations from the perspective of issue salience. The source base of this paper comprises Addresses by the Ministers of Foreign Affairs (AMFAs), i.e. annual speeches given by foreign ministers presenting the major goals of Poland's foreign policy. It makes it possible to adopt a long-term perspective (1990-2018). The quantitative analysis was based on the rules of the Comparative Manifesto Project. Its results allowed the author to determine the position of Germany in Poland's foreign policy; to identify the major periods in mutual relations; to indicate the main concepts of the Polish governments concerning Polish-German relations; and to specify the major problematic issues in mutual relations. The performed analysis shows that relations with Germany play the dominant role in the structure of Polish foreign policy, and particularly European policy. This stands in stark contrast to the ambivalence of the Polish political elites, especially those on the right side of the political spectrum, towards the western neighbour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Bureaucratic Politics Model (BPM) is usually employed to explain crisis decision-making in US foreign policy. Proponents of the model argue, however, that its explanatory scope also encompasses non-crisis decision-making in domestic political issues in parliamentary systems. This paper takes up this claim and applies the BPM to the reform of the German Federal Criminal Police Office. In line with the BPM's predictions, the paper finds that the policy preferences of the key actors were indeed strongly influenced by their bureaucratic position and the outcome of the decision-making process was a compromise solution. However, the model cannot account for the impact of two non-executive institutions, that is, the Federal Constitutional Court and the Bundesrat, on the executive bargaining process. This finding suggests that the BPM could be an even better analytical tool if it were expanded to systematically incorporate the influence of non-bureaucratic actors into its framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Faced with steadily growing expenditures of the public health care insurance companies, rising statutory contributions for health care insurance and constantly high unemployment, the German government decided to introduce a reform of the public health care insurance scheme that came into force in January 2004. The first part of this paper discusses the reasons for the reform and presents its central elements. Since the reform was introduced to contribute to an increase of legal employment by a reduction of statutory contributions to the public health care scheme, I will discuss the reform's potential to increase employment. In the next step the paper illustrates alternative models of health care reform (citizen's scheme and individual health care premium) and compares their potential for job growth. Although the health care reform of the government considers both the need to reduce statutory contributions to public health care insurance and to ease income tax in order to compensate for higher individual payments for medical treatment, its potential for job growth is limited because it lacks support from the health care bureaucracy and the pharmaceutical industry. A reform of welfare state politics resembles a fight with a Goliath made up of powerful interest groups, a reluctant bureaucracy and uncertain socio-economic outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing on the characterisation of the European Council as an arena for 'integrative bargaining', the paper shows the importance of two factors that influence whether a country can act as 'first among equals' or ('Primus Inter Pares') in a system designed to respect national sovereignty: alignment among the 'Big Three', and 'voice opportunities' for smaller member states. We support this argument with view of Germany's divergent role in two recent international crises - the 2011 uprisings in Libya and the violent protests in Ukraine in 2014/2015. On the basis of these findings, we conclude that the ability to create consent among all Member States is both a key prerequisite and a serious challenge for effective leadership in EU foreign policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At the height of the migration crisis (between autumn 2015 and summer 2016), Germany's role in EU migration policy and EU-Turkey affairs went through a period of change. Searching for effective instruments, the German government attempted to lead European policies, managing the crisis first through an 'open door' approach and then through an agreement with Turkey. The notion of 'Merkel's migration deal' and a 'German Alleingang' became prominent in political, public and academic debate. With the aim of assessing whether or not these terms correctly describe Germany's role, this article unpacks the complex Ankara-Berlin-Brussels triangle. It examines how structural and institutional power influenced the German role. We argue that, under extreme time pressure, Germany took refuge in a constrained type of leadership. Positions of other EU member states and institutions, as well as domestic factors (social tension, public opinion and the rise of the far right) inhibited the leadership potential. Additionally, the paper elaborates on differences between the EU's internal and external crisis management. In external migration policy, German leadership took the form of a flexible 'institutional directoire', through which Germany successfully negotiated an EU-Turkey statement on migration, in consultation with EU institutions and selected national leaders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For most of her political career Angela Merkel has been perceived as a pragmatic political leader, avoiding tough and divisive decisions wherever possible, and joining decision-making coalitions on contested issues when they emerged. To some extent, this remarkable ability appears to explain her extended hold on the German chancellorship. In the midst of her third term, however, her behaviour changed suddenly and unexpectedly, or so it seemed. When in July 2015 the euro crisis flared up again due to the standoff between Greece and its EU partners on the second bail-out, Merkel let her European convictions prevail and backed another support package against the wishes of many in her party. Moreover, when Germany was hit by a wave of refugees only a few months later, Merkel became the torch-bearer of a 'culture of welcome' and defended her 'open-door' policies with a measure of conviction that few observers would have considered possible. This paper looks at Merkel's leadership performance during her third term through the lens of the concept of 'conviction leadership', and inquires if, or to what extent, Merkel can be meaningfully considered a 'conviction leader'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In modern representative democracies political parties are the main institutions responsible for providing linkage between citizens and the state. One way to do this is through organizational linkage mechanisms, especially the representation of a party's voters through the party membership. This paper tries to describe the attitudinal representativeness of German party memberships in terms of left-right positions using data from two party membership studies from 1998 and 2009. In a second step, the determinants of divergent attitudes of party members from the position of the parties' voters are analyzed on an individual level, testing four possible explanations for this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While political parties in Germany have been steadily losing members for more than two decades, there has been no sign of a breakdown in their day-to-day grass-roots activities. Despite many prophecies of doom, the 'party on the ground' does not seem to be dead yet. There is some evidence that the declining number of party members is compensated for by an increasing share of party activists. The question is how the erosion of the political parties' member-ship base affects their levels and types of activity. This paper aims to describe and explain these two dimensions of activity in German political parties, using data from German party membership studies from 1998 and 2009. The analyses show that parties are partly able to compensate for membership losses via an increased activity of the remaining members, but at the same time, it is possible that changes in the social profile and motivations of the most active group of members may lead to future difficulties in coping with party work and canvassing new members. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How has the Netherlands sought to influence the redesign of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) since the financial crisis? Based on the case studies of the 'New Hanseatic League' and the 'Frugal Four' this study finds, firstly, that the Netherlands chooses strategies of foot-dragging when initiatives are brought up to deepen integration when the Dutch prefer the status quo. Secondly, its strategy is more bargaining-based but at times also persuasion-based; the bargaining occurs in part because the Netherlands builds occasional alliances with like-minded member states to counterbalance the asymmetry of power between it and Germany. Finally, the Netherlands oscillates between trying to influence Germany directly and bypassing it by reaching out to like-minded member states on various dossiers and tempting them to declare their positions in advance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

German governments and European Union (EU) member states forming the New Hanseatic League (HL) have had very similar preferences on EU / Eurozone financial support mechanisms. We would expect German and HL governments to be close allies on these matters. However, empirically, we detect differences. German governments have repeatedly resisted participating in HL joint positions on EU financial support mechanisms and accepted compromises with France. In order to explain this divergence we consider the relative explanatory merit of economic preferences, based on both material interests and economic ideas—here ordoliberalism—on the one hand, and norms of cooperation—here Franco-German 'embedded bilateralism'—and geo-strategic interests on the other hand. We disentangle economic preference formation and the choice in favour of a political strategy to pursue these preferences. Economic preferences are one factor explaining the extent of concessions made by Germany to the HL countries and France. However, norms of cooperation and geostrategic interests explain the choice of German governments on how and with whom best to pursue their preferences. German governments have performed a balancing act between the HL and France, skewed towards the latter. The presence of economic crises increases the degree to which this balancing act is skewed towards France. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In contrast to national elections, both parties and voters are assumed to think that ‘less is at stake’ in European elections: Campaigns are less intense, turnout is lower, and citizens are more inclined to ‘vote with their hearts’. The latter should be reflected in differing rationales of voting – party choice should not be based on identical determinants in national and European elections. However, this hypothesis has not been sufficiently tested and most of the research is based on the analysis of aggregated data while causal explanations are located on the micro level. This paper compares vote functions of individuals in regard to the 2009 European Parliament election as well as the 2009 German Federal election. Using data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES), comparison of explanatory models shows that party choice on both levels is neither fundamentally different nor does it fit into the pattern of second-order electoral behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

State elections are one of the most prominent features of Germany's multi-level political system. The prevailing view is that the standing of the national governing parties has a major influence on the results of state elections. Still, two perspectives on the nexus between national party preferences and state election results have so far received less scholarly attention: First, it remains unclear if short-term changes in the national government's popularity also have an effect on state election results. Second, do results of state elections also influence the standing of the national government? A reason for this might be that short-term factors are becoming more important for government evaluation and vote choices. This paper responds to these two questions by examining the nexus between state elections and the standing of the national government in a long-term perspective from 1977 to 2005 and by means of cross-sectional and time-series analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last five years the forces of organised right-wing extremism have made electoral advances across many states in contemporary Europe. Germany has not been immune and the extreme right party, the National Democratic Party of Germany won its first seat in the European Parliament since 1989. The recent successes of the extreme right pose issues for European society about tolerance and immigration policy, but this scene has also been associated with an upsurge in racially motivated political violence and acts of right-wing terrorism. Much of this violence is perpetrated by small neo-Nazi styled groups. This paper looks at the most notorious and recent of such groups to emerge in Germany, the National Socialist Underground. The paper explores the origins and personalities behind this terror cell, provides derails of its criminal activities and murder spree, and questions why it took so long for the authorities to identify the NSU. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper examines the influences of candidate perceptions on Germany's spring 2016 Länder election results. It takes a comparative approach, using a modified Michigan model on the data collected simultaneously in three Lnder (Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate, and Saxony-Anhalt). It explains why the Green party was successful in Baden-Württemberg but not in the other Länder, the impact of the major candidates, and what distinguishes the influences of the current prime ministers running for these elections. Whereas Winfried Kretschmann's (Green party, Baden-Württemberg) high impact on the election results was driven mainly by a warmth dimension (sympathy), Malu Dreyer (SPD, Rhineland-Palatinate) was viewed as being competent. Both candidates were assets to their parties and co-responsible for the results. In comparison, in Saxony-Anhalt, none of the candidates were as important to the outcomes of the electoral success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In mixed-member proportional systems with closed party lists, such as the German Bundestag election, candidates’ electoral fate is widely determined by their placement on party lists. Despite its importance for the final composition of parliaments, candidates’ list placement in such systems is still under-researched. The literature on political careers has revealed a number of prevalent recruitment factors, but how these factors actually affect candidates’ placement on party lists has rarely been tested. This paper puts forward the question of what recruitment factors affected candidates’ chances to be allocated viable list positions in the 2013 German Bundestag election. The findings suggest that in particular candidates’ incumbency status, their number of prior candidacies and district nominations play key roles in shaping candidates’ electoral viability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do natural disasters affect electoral participation? The existing social science literature offers contradictory predictions. A considerable body of research in sociology and psychology suggests that traumatic events can inspire pro-social behaviour, which might increase turnout. Yet, political science has long held that even minor changes to participation costs of low benefit activities can lead to considerable drops in civic engagement. Consequently, natural disasters should reduce electoral participation. We show how these distinct views can be jointly analysed within the Riker-Ordeshook model of voting. This paper then reports results on the impact of the 2002 and 2013 floods in Germany on turnout in federal and state elections in Saxony and Bavaria, conducted few weeks after the floods. Analysing community level turnout data, and drawing on a difference-in-differences framework, we find that flood exposure has a consistent negative effect on turnout. This indicates that the increase in the costs of voting outweighed any increase in political engagement in our case and stands in contrast to findings from developing contexts, where flood management was convincingly linked to electoral participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The large influx of refugees into Germany in late 2015 gave rise to a period of intensified party competition over a single issue: refugees. This paper examines German parties’ reactions to this issue suddenly becoming highly important and voter preferences shifting to a more restrictive stance. It does so by analysing the parties’ positions on the issue from August to November 2015 based on statements from more than 1000 quality newspaper articles. The analysis shows that there was no uniform shift in line with the change in public opinion but a pattern of polarisation. Moreover, converging party position changes sparked intra-party criticism that was in turn followed by divergence – a pattern observable for the Green Party as well as for the Christian Democrats. Altogether, these findings suggest that policy motives, which induce intra-party dissent, impede parties opportunistically trying to follow shifts in public opinion in the short term. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper utilises survey data from the 1999 European Value Study to conduct a quasi-experimental analysis of the relationship between the left-right self-identification and policy preferences of Germany's electorate. Given the German division until 1990 it is plausible that citizens from East and West Germany had different ideological socialisation experiences swayed by the political discourse of their times. This paper models the influence of this diverse experience on ideological thinking, and examines the effects on the understanding of political issues. The findings suggest that differences do exist in the ideological consistency and attitude structuring of respondents. Compared to respondents in the West, East Germans are more likely to understand the term 'left' in socio-economic terms. On the other hand, they seem to connect the term 'right' rather to xenophobic issues. These results have crucial implications for political communication in representative democracies, as they question the one-level dimensionality of the left-right concept. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Liberal-idealist and constructivist approaches to German foreign and security policy share a rejection of power politics and a 'normalisation' of the use of force. Wedded to a 'civilian power' lens, these approaches cannot explain actual policy in terms other than a re-socialisation into power politics or a decline of Germany's normative preferences. This paper argues that these approaches no longer adequately reflect the choices German leaders face. They confine analysis to normatively acceptable forms of power and structural frameworks that are increasingly in flux. As a result, they are unable to explain the impact of systemic transformation on German foreign policy and lack the analytical tools to incorporate systemic change. This paper proposes instead that a different, and more accurate, conclusion can be reached if we reassess how power, norms and structure interact in shaping German foreign policy choices. What we find is that Germany is actively engaged in developing an approach to foreign policy-making that takes account of the structural transformations in Europe and beyond and its legacy of strong normative convictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the central projects on the Grand Coalition's agenda 2005 was a reform of the German federal system. And while an earlier Reform Commission had failed, the Grand Coalition was indeed more successful: the first stage of the reform came into force in September 2006. Does that mean Germany will finally escape the 'joint decision trap' and the well-known Reformstau? The paper will argue that the outcome is a result of the same strategies to avoid deadlock that have been observed in the past. Instead of opening the 'joint decision trap', Bund and Lander were at best able to adjust it slightly. And a first outlook on the ongoing second stage of the reform suggests that a very similar outcome can be expected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In general, the 'mega-trends' represented by, for example, globalisation, the shift to a service economy coupled with high levels of technological change and a long-term shrinkage in the working population all make a more adaptable and skilled workforce in high income countries necessary. The pervasive effects of these mega-trends are often interpreted as suggesting that there is only one optimal institutional configuration to achieve good employment outcomes, which therefore needs to be adopted by all countries. As Britain seems closer to this ideal type than Germany, one would expect a better labour market performance in the former than in the latter, as well as a convergence in labour market policies and outcomes in Germany towards the British model. Taking into account the different starting positions of Germany and Britain, particularly with regard to important differences in monetary policy contexts, the paper evaluates whether and to what extent national public policy patterns are actually converging towards a higher level of flexibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At first glance, the Europeanisation of the German Bundestag seems quite straightforward: in reaction to the process of European integration the Bundestag acquired a set of comparatively strong participation and scrutiny rights in EU politics. It therefore seems rather astonishing that German members of parliament make only very little use of these rights. Different explanations have been put forward in the literature, such as the complicated decision-making system of the EU and the government's gate-keeper position within it, institutional flaws of the German scrutiny system as well as the overall consensus on European integration and the low electoral salience of EU issues. The paper contributes to this discussion in two respects: On the one hand, it offers an additional explanation for the infrequent use of formal instruments. The main argument is that the formal instruments of scrutiny in EU affairs are incompatible with both the overall logic of a parliamentary system as well as the challenges of policy-making in the EU multilevel system. On the other hand, the paper argues that the exclusive focus on the use of formal parliamentary scrutiny rights leads us to overlook more informal means of parliamentary influence and therefore to underestimate the involvement of German parliamentarians in EU affairs. Thus, in order to fully assess processes of parliamentary Europeanisation, we need to take forms of informal or strategic Europeanisation into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines some of the constitutional aspects of the ‘Future of Europe’ reform process in the light of interactions between German and ‘European’ federalism. Many aspects of the traditions of German federalism and German post-war constitutionalism have been influential, if not to say formative, for the evolution of the EU. These aspects are set out as a frame for the paper, before more detailed analysis of the constitutional process and a particular focus on the division of competences. The constitutional outcome reveals clear German ‘fingerprints’, though that finding needs to be balanced by a recognition of the constitutional debate as multi-perspectival, involving all member states both separately and collectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite a growing convergence in the attitudes and behaviours of voters in the unified Germany, research shows that eastern and western German voters continue to differ over general ideological issues. How well does the party system in the unified Germany represent this ideological diversity? To answer this question, this paper analyses the extent to which (1) parties-in-electorates, (2) parties-in-parliament and (3) parties-in-government agree ideologically with voters from both regions between 1980 and 2013. Hypothetically, a lop-sided representation pattern, where the ideological location of parties converges primarily with those of western voters, suggests that existing ideological differences become institutionalised. Contrary to this scenario, we find that the German party system effectively articulates the ideological preferences of western and eastern voters. The same applies to parliaments and governments where the election outcome rather than any institutional bias affects the distance of parties to voters in the East and the West. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper addresses the assertion that preferences for a comprehensive welfare state hamper and delay the emergence of a liberal-democratic culture in East Germany. Two questions are explored: first, has the impact of welfare-state values on support of the German democratic regime declined in East Germany since re-unification and adapted to the lower levels observed in West Germany? Second, are attitudes towards different welfare-state programmes equally important for citizens’ approval of the German democratic regime? Empirical analyses on the basis of representative public opinion surveys conducted between 1991 and 2012 confirm that the effect of welfare-state values in East Germany has converged to the smaller effect size observed in West Germany. Furthermore, attitudes to welfare-state programmes aimed at reducing income inequalities turn out to be a significant determinant of regime support in both parts of Germany. It is the higher demand for inequality-reducing governmental activities which still restrains the approval of the liberal-democratic regime among citizens in East Germany. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study explores the financialisation of sovereign debt through an in-depth study of institutional change in German debt management. Between 1998 and 2006, the Ministry of Finance fundamentally altered the management of federal public debt by not only disempowering the Bundesbank and Federal Debt Administration as debt managers and outsourcing this task to a new agency, the Federal Finance Agency; moreover, the conservative debt strategy was replaced by strict market orientation. Conceptualising this change as institutional innovation, the paper argues that the Ministry of Finance played a leading role in the reform process. It shows that the arrival of the Euro brought with it a power struggle between the Ministry and the Bundesbank. The evidence fits better the concept of institutional innovation as a result of entrepreneurship than approaches which conceptualise institutional innovations as consequences of profit maximisation or layering and displacement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]