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Abstract: This paper investigates the role of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technologies as part of a portfolio for reducing CO2 emissions from the European electricity supply system until the year 2050. The analysis is carried out with a techno-economic model (minimizing the system cost) including a detailed description of the present stationary European electricity generation system (power plants) and potential CO2 storage sites as obtained from the Chalmers Energy Infrastructure Database. Since the ability of different EU Member States and regions to facilitate and to benefit from CCS will most likely depend on local conditions in terms of current energy mix, fuel supply chains and distance to suitable storage locations, special emphasize is put on analyzing turn-over in capital stock of the existing power plant infrastructure, timing of investments and the infrastructural implications of large scale introduction of CCS on a regional perspective. The paper discusses the role of and requirements on CCS for meeting strict emission targets of 85% reduction while having a continued growth in electricity demand (according to EU projections). The results show that it is possible to meet an 85% CO2 reduction target by 2050, but this will require large contribution from CCS. As expected, regions which are currently high in carbon intensity and which are located nearby suitable storage sites will benefit mostly from CCS as an option. With the assumption that CCS will be commercially available in 2020 the model results give a steep ramp-up in the use of CCS post 2020 which imposes challenges for timely investments in corresponding CCS infrastructure. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper investigates how the European electricity generation system can meet deep cuts in CO2 emissions until the year 2050 with special focus on national conditions for CCS. An 85% reduction in CO2 emissions until 2050 is imposed. The analysis is carried out with a techno-economic model (minimizing the system cost) including a detailed description of the present stationary European electricity generation system (power plants) and potential CO2 storage sites as obtained from the Chalmers Energy Infrastructure Database. The modeling puts a cap on CO2 emissions from the system which gives a price on these emissions, i.e. similar to the effect of the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), which is the main policy instrument for controlling GHG emissions within EU. Emphasize is put on analyzing turn-over in capital stock of the existing power plant infrastructure, timing of investments and the infrastructural implications of large scale introduction of CCS on a regional perspective, including the effect of investing in new transmission capacity between member states. The work compares two scenarios, one used in a previous work with significant growth in electricity consumption and one assuming that energy efficiency measures are successfully applied in line with the recent EU energy policy package. The results show that it is possible to meet an 85% CO2 reduction target by 2050 at a cost of some 50 to 80 € /ton CO2 over the period up to 2050, but this will require large contributions from CCS and electricity from renewable sources (mainly wind and biomass). Yet, without significant energy efficiency measures it is questionable if such large investments in generation technologies are feasible. Thus, to reach an 85% reduction in CO2 emissions from the electricity generation system by 2050 is not a matter of choice between different technologies and energy efficiency measures but all of these are required and the crucial point is if there will be a high enough price on CO2 emissions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper investigates conditions for a rapid ramp-up of a large-scale CO2 transport and storage infrastructure within the power and heat sector in EU’s Member States (MS). First, each MS is investigated individually with respect to the relevance of CCS in the power and heat sector. Second, the potential cost of CO2 transport and storage is evaluated and categorised into three levels for each MS with particular emphasis being put on power plant clusters, ownership concentration, source-sink distance and onshore storage potential. The chosen cost category for each member state is then used as input in a techno-economic modelling to evaluate the future electricity supply system in Europe as described elsewhere (Odenberger et al., 2008a). Finally, based on the modelling results, the study develops a detailed CO2 transportation and storage infrastructure for Germany and UK and discusses issues related to the ramp-up of such infrastructure. The analysis shows that most MS have identified structures that may be suitable for subsurface storage of CO2. Fourteen MS have so far identified onshore reservoirs only. Several MS have clusters of large power plants along with considerable national or regional concentration of plant ownership, factors that may both facilitate the ramp-up of a bulk CCS infrastructure. Phasing in of CCS plants over time will obviously play a key role in building up large-scale transport infrastructure. CCS plants are likely to be located on existing sites and coal plants currently under construction may choose to retrofit the plant for CCS instead of building new plants. CO2 pipeline trajectories are likely to follow existing trajectories for natural gas pipelines, minimising interference with the surroundings and facilitate and speed up permitting processes. Timing, conflicts of interest and public acceptance, especially onshore, are other factors that may become an issue with regard to transport and storage of CO2. According to model results, some 5.2 Gt CO2 is transported and stored in Germany between 2020 and 2050 while the corresponding figure in the UK is 3.7 Gt. Based on assumed injectivity, total system costs up to 2050 range between €18 and €23 billion in Germany and between €20 and €30 billion in the UK while specific costs range between €3.4 and €4.4 per ton of CO2 in Germany and between €5.4 and €8.1 in the UK. Finally, the modelling results indicate a rapid switch from gas based to coal based power generation with CCS. It is, however, likely that the large fuel switch from gas to coal will be moderated considerably by market dynamics and issues related to the fuel supply chain. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]