CCS in the European electricity supply system — Assessment of national conditions to meet common EU targets.

Abstract: This paper investigates how the European electricity generation system can meet deep cuts in CO₂ emissions until the year 2050 with special focus on national conditions for CCS. An 85% reduction in CO₂ emissions until 2050 is imposed. The analysis is carried out with a techno-economic model (minimizing the system cost) including a detailed description of the present stationary European electricity generation system (power plants) and potential CO₂ storage sites as obtained from the Chalmers Energy Infrastructure Database. The modeling puts a cap on CO₂ emissions from the system which gives a price on these emissions, i.e. similar to the effect of the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), which is the main policy instrument for controlling GHG emissions within EU. Emphasize is put on analyzing turn-over in capital stock of the existing power plant infrastructure, timing of investments and the infrastructural implications of large scale introduction of CCS on a regional perspective, including the effect of investing in new transmission capacity between member states. The work compares two scenarios, one used in a previous work with significant growth in electricity consumption and one assuming that energy efficiency measures are successfully applied in line with the recent EU energy policy package. The results show that it is possible to meet an 85% CO₂ reduction target by 2050 at a cost of some 50 to 80 € /ton CO₂ over the period up to 2050, but this will require large contributions from CCS and electricity from renewable sources (mainly wind and biomass). Yet, without significant energy efficiency measures it is questionable if such large investments in generation technologies are feasible. Thus, to reach an 85% reduction in CO₂ emissions from the electricity generation system by 2050 is not a matter of choice between different technologies and energy efficiency measures but all of these are required and the crucial point is if there will be a high enough price on CO₂ emissions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]