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In regions heavily affected by recurrent typhoons, the need for more resilient electricity infrastructure is pressing. This emphasizes the importance of integrating resilience assessment, including incorporating resilience metrics, into the planning process of power distribution systems against any disruptive events. Although standardized metrics exist for assessing distribution system reliability, the absence of formalized resilience metrics hampers informed investments in critical infrastructure such as microgrid development. In this work, a set of resilience metrics is proposed by reconceptualizing reliability metrics. The metrics were formulated to account for both the type of extreme event and its specific impact on loads with varying levels of criticality. The effectiveness of the proposed metrics is demonstrated through a Philippine microgrid case study. A Monte Carlo framework incorporating an extreme event model, component fragility model, and system response model was used to quantify the resilience improvement before and after stand-alone microgrid operation of the power distribution system. Results show that the proposed metrics can effectively evaluate resilience enhancement and highlight the value of a holistic approach of considering critical loads and types of extreme events to strengthen societal and community resilience, making a compelling case for strategic investments in infrastructure upgrades such as microgrids.

Renewable energy (RE) utilization is expected to increase in the coming years due to its decreasing costs and the mounting socio-political pressure to decarbonize the world’s energy systems. On the other hand, lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are on track to hit the target 100 USD/kWh price in the next decade due to economy of scale and manufacturing process improvements, evident in the rise in Li-ion gigafactories. The forecast of RE and Li-ion technology costs is important for planning RE integration into existing energy systems. Previous cost predictions on Li-ion batteries were conducted using conventional learning curve models based on a single factor, such as either installed capacity or innovation activity. A two-stage learning curve model was recently investigated wherein mineral costs were taken as a factor for material cost to set the floor price, and material cost was a major factor for the battery pack price. However, these models resulted in the overestimation of future prices. In this work, the future prices of Li-ion nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) battery packs - a battery chemistry of choice in the electric vehicle and stationary grid storage markets - were projected up to year 2025 using multi-factor learning curve models. Among the generated models, the two-factor learning curve model has the most realistic and statistically sound results having learning rates of 21.18% for battery demand and 3.0% for innovation. By year 2024, the projected price would fall below the 100 USD/kWh industry benchmark battery pack price, consistent with most market research predictions. Techno-economic case studies on the microgrid applications of the forecasted prices of Li-ion NMC batteries were conducted. Results showed that the decrease in future prices of Li-ion NMC batteries would make 2020 and 2023 the best years to start investing in an optimum (solar photovoltaic + wind + diesel generator + Li-ion NMC) and 100% RE (solar photovoltaic + wind + Li-ion NMC) off-grid energy system, respectively. A hybrid grid-tied (solar photovoltaic + grid + Li-ion NMC) configuration is the best grid-tied energy system under the current net metering policy, with 2020 being the best year to deploy the investment.

The industrial sector is a major contributor to the economic growth of the Philippines. However, it is also one of the top consumers of energy, which is produced mainly from fossil fuels. The Philippine industrial sector must therefore be supported economically while minimizing the emissions associated with energy consumption. A potential strategy for minimizing costs and emissions is the installation of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules on the rooftops of industrial facilities, but this approach is hindered by existing energy policies in the country. In this work, we performed a techno-economic assessment on the implementation of rooftop solar PV in Philippine industrial facilities under different policy scenarios. Our study considered 139 randomly sampled industrial plants under MERALCO franchise area in the Philippines. Under the current net metering policy, 132 of the evaluated facilities were economically viable for the integration of rooftop solar PV. This corresponds to an additional 1035 MWp of solar PV capacity and the avoidance of 8.4 million tons of CO2 emissions with minimal financial risk. In comparison, an expanded net metering policy supports the deployment of 4653 MWp of solar PV and the avoidance of 38 million tons of CO2. By enabling an enhanced net metering policy, the widespread application of rooftop solar PV may present considerable savings and emission reduction for energy-intensive industries (electrical and semiconductors, cement and concrete, steel and metals, and textile and garments) and lower generation costs for less energy intensive industries (construction and construction materials, transportation and logistics, and food and beverages).

Philippine off-grid islands are mostly electrified by diesel generators, resulting in costly electricity that is interrupted by fuel supply disruptions. The archipelagic nature of the country also impedes off-grid electrification due to the high capital cost of grid extension. Transitioning from diesel-only systems to hybrid renewable energy systems and interconnecting the island microgrids can solve these problems while promoting cleaner energy production. In this work, a comparative study on decentralized and clustered hybrid renewable energy system microgrids in the Polillo group of islands in the Philippines, using HOMER Pro, was performed. Microgrids comprising solar photovoltaics, lithium-ion battery energy storage, and diesel generators were designed on each island. Clustered systems encompassing multiple islands in the island group were simulated by also considering the least-cost interconnection paths. The techno-economics of each decentralized or clustered system and the four-island system were evaluated based on the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Reliability was assessed using the change in LCOE upon the failure of a component and during weather disturbances. Transitioning from diesel-only systems to hybrid systems reduces generation costs by an average of 42.01% and increases the renewable energy share to 80%. Interconnecting the hybrid systems results in an average increase of 2.34% in generation costs due to the cost of submarine cables but improves system reliability and reduces the optimum solar photovoltaic and lithium-ion storage installations by 6.66% and 8.71%, respectively. This research serves as a framework for the interconnection pre-feasibility analysis of other small off-grid islands.