1. Lietuvos energetikos sistemos energetinio saugumo lygio kitimo vertinimas.
- Author
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Augutis, Juozas and Martišauskas, Linas
- Abstract
The paper presents a new methodology for the energy security assessment and comparison of various energy development scenarios. Energy security is understood not only as the ability of the energy system to supply energy to consumers under normal conditions and at reasonable prices but also as the system's ability to resist to various potential disturbances arising from both technical and economic as well as from socio-political and geopolitical threats. The paper presents a probabilistic model of disturbance formation and an economic-optimization model of disturbance effects. Energy security is evaluated quantitatively taking into account changes in energy prices and unsupplied energy to consumers caused by the disturbances. The developed methodology was applied for energy security assessment of Lithuanian energy system development scenarios. The first scenario is characterized by the implementation of the liquefied natural gas terminal, electricity connections with Sweden and Poland as well as planned renewable energy development projects in the Lithuanian energy system. However, the majority of electricity is imported, especially after the shutdown of the old units at the Lithuanian power plant. Closed units at the Lithuanian power plant are replaced with new combined cycle units in the second scenario. A new nuclear power plant is placed in the third scenario. The combination of the second and third scenarios is done in the fourth scenario: a single gas combined cycle unit is installed and the nuclear power plant is placed afterward. Despite considerable investments in the nuclear power plant and the combined cycle unit, energy security is highest in the fourth scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2013
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