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Horizon scans have emerged as a valuable tool to anticipate the incoming invasive alien species (IAS) by judging species on their potential impacts. However, little research has been conducted on quantifying actual impacts and assessing causes of species‐specific vulnerabilities to particular IAS due to persistent methodological challenges. The underlying interspecific mechanisms driving species‐specific vulnerabilities therefore remain poorly understood, even though they can substantially improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Given that interspecific interactions underlying ecological impacts of IAS are often shaped by phenological synchrony, we tested the hypothesis that temporal mismatches in breeding phenology between native species and IAS can mitigate their ecological impacts. Focusing on the invasive American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus), we combined an environmental DNA (eDNA) quantitative barcoding and metabarcoding survey in Belgium with a global meta‐analysis, and integrated citizen‐science data on breeding phenology. We examined whether the presence of native amphibian species was negatively related to the presence or abundance of invasive bullfrogs and whether this relationship was affected by their phenological mismatches. The field study revealed a significant negative effect of increasing bullfrog eDNA concentrations on native amphibian species richness and community structure. These observations were shaped by species‐specific vulnerabilities to invasive bullfrogs, with late spring‐ and summer‐breeding species being strongly affected, while winter‐breeding species remained unaffected. This trend was confirmed by the global meta‐analysis. A significant negative relationship was observed between phenological mismatch and the impact of bullfrogs. Specifically, native amphibian species with breeding phenology differing by 6 weeks or less from invasive bullfrogs were more likely to be absent in the presence of bullfrogs than species whose phenology differed by more than 6 weeks with that of bullfrogs. Taken together, we present a novel method based on the combination of aqueous eDNA quantitative barcoding and metabarcoding to quantify the ecological impacts of biological invaders at the community level. We show that phenological mismatches between native and invasive species can be a strong predictor of invasion impact regardless of ecological or methodological context. Therefore, we advocate for the integration of temporal alignment between native and IAS's phenologies into invasion impact frameworks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatially explicit prioritization of invasive species control is a complex issue, requiring consideration of trade‐offs between immediate and future benefits. This study aimed to prioritize management efforts to account for current and future threats from widespread invasions and examine the strength of the trade‐off between these different management goals. As a case study, we identified spatially explicit management priorities for the widespread invasion of introduced willow into riparian and wetland habitats across a 102,145‐km2 region in eastern Australia. In addition to targeting places where willow threatens biodiversity now, a second set of management goals was to limit reinfestation and further spread that could occur via two different mechanisms (downstream and by wind). A model of likely willow distribution across the region was combined with spatial data for biodiversity (native vegetation, threatened species and communities), ecological conditions, management costs, and two potential dispersal layers. We used systematic conservation planning software (Zonation) to prioritize where willow management should be focussed across more than 100,000 catchments for a range of different scenarios that reflected different weights between management goals. For willow invasion, we found that we could prioritize willow management to reduce the future threat of dispersal downstream with little reduction in the protection of biodiversity. However, accounting for future threats from wind dispersal resulted in a stronger trade‐off with protection of threatened biodiversity. The strongest trade‐off was observed when both dispersal mechanisms were considered together. This study shows that considering current and future goals together offers the potential to substantially improve conservation outcomes for invasive species management. Our approach also informs land managers about the relative trade‐offs among different management goals under different control scenarios, helping to make management decisions more transparent. This approach can be used for other widespread invasive species to help improve invasive species management decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluating the impacts of farming systems on biodiversity is increasingly important given the need to stem biodiversity loss, decrease fossil fuel dependency, and maintain ecosystem services benefiting farmers. We recorded woody and herbaceous plant species diversity, composition, and abundance in 43 wetland‐adjacent prairie remnants beside crop fields managed using conventional, minimum tillage, organic, or perennial cover (wildlife‐friendly) land management in the Prairie Pothole Region. We used a hierarchical framework to estimate diversity at regional and local scales (gamma, alpha), and how these are related through species turnover (beta diversity). We tested the expectation that gamma richness/evenness and beta diversity of all plants would be higher in remnants adjacent to perennial cover and organic fields than in conventional and minimum tillage fields. We expected the same findings for plants providing ecosystem services (bee‐pollinated species) and disservices (introduced species). We predicted similar relative effects of land management on alpha diversity, but with the expectation that the benefits of organic farming would decrease with increasing grassland in surrounding landscapes. Gamma richness and evenness of all plants were highest for perennial cover, followed by minimum tillage, organic, and conventional sites. Bee‐pollinated species followed a similar pattern for richness, but for evenness organic farming came second, after perennial cover sites, followed by minimum tillage and conventional. For introduced species, organic sites had the highest gamma richness and evenness. Grassland amount moderated the effect of land management type on all plants and bee‐pollinated plant richness, but not as expected. The richness of organic sites increased with the amount of grassland in the surrounding landscape. Conversely, for conventional sites, richness increased as the amount of grassland in the landscape declined. Our results are consistent with the expectation that adopting wildlife‐friendly land management practices can benefit biodiversity at regional and local scales, in particular the use of perennial cover to benefit plant diversity at regional scales. At more local extents, organic farming increased plant richness, but only when sufficient grassland was available in the surrounding landscape; organic farms also had the highest beta diversity for all plants and bee‐pollinated plants. Maintaining native cover in agroecosystems, in addition to low‐intensity farming practices, could sustain plant biodiversity and facilitate important ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses the management of invasive alien species (IAS) in China. It highlights the negative impacts of biological invasions on ecosystems, the environment, and the economy. The article presents 24 papers that cover a wide range of topics related to IAS management, including risk analysis, mechanisms of invasion success, performance of successful IAS, and impact and control of invasive species. The studies use various methods such as field surveys, experiments, ecological modeling, and molecular techniques to assess invasion risks, investigate mechanisms, and develop control strategies. The article emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary research and effective management strategies to address the increasing threat of IAS in China. [Extracted from the article]

Copyright of Ecological Applications is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Ecological Applications is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Ecological Applications is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Ecological Applications is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Fluctuating resource availability plays a critical role in determining non‐native plant invasions through mediating the competitive balance between non‐native and native species. However, the impact of fluctuating resource availability on interactions among non‐native species remains largely unknown. This represents a barrier to understanding invasion mechanisms, particularly in habitats that harbor multiple non‐native species with different responses to fluctuating resource availability. To examine the responses of non‐native plant species to nutrient fluctuations, we compared the growth of each of 12 non‐native species found to be common in local natural areas to nutrients supplied at a constant rate or supplied as a single large pulse in a pot experiment. We found that seven species produced more biomass with pulsed nutrients compared to constant nutrients (hereafter "benefitting species"), while the other five species did not differ between nutrient enrichment treatments (hereafter "non‐benefitting species"). To investigate how nutrient fluctuations influence the interactions among non‐native plant species, we established experimental non‐native communities in the field with two benefitting and two non‐benefitting non‐native species. Compared with constant nutrient supply, the single large pulse of nutrient did not influence community biomass, but strongly increased the biomass and cover of the benefitting species and decreased those of the non‐benefitting species. Furthermore, the benefitting species had higher leaf N content and greater plant height when nutrients were supplied as a single large pulse than at a constant rate, whereas the non‐benefitting species showed no differences in leaf N content and were shorter when nutrients were supplied as a single large pulse than at a constant rate. Our results add to the growing evidence that the individual responses of non‐native species to nutrient fluctuation are species‐specific. More importantly, benefitting species were favored by nutrients coming in a pulse, while non‐benefitting ones were favored by nutrients coming constantly when they grew together. This suggests that nutrient fluctuations can mediate the competitive balance among non‐native plants and may thus determine their invasion success in a community harboring multiple non‐native plant species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Ecological Applications is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Ecological Applications is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Ecological Applications is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Despite growing interest in conservation and re‐establishment of ecological connectivity, few studies have explored its context‐specific social–ecological outcomes. We aimed to explore social and ecological outcomes to changing stream connectivity for both stakeholders and native fish species impacted by habitat fragmentation and nonnative species. We (1) investigated stakeholder perceptions of the drivers and outcomes of stream connectivity, and (2) evaluated the effects of stakeholder‐identified connectivity and nonnative species scenarios on Yellowstone cutthroat trout (YCT) populations. Our study was conducted in the Teton River, Idaho, USA. We integrated two modeling approaches, mental modeling and individual‐based ecological modeling, to explore social–ecological outcomes for stakeholders and YCT populations. Aggregation of mental models revealed an emergent pattern of increasing complexity as more types of stakeholders were considered, as well as gaps and linkages among different stakeholder knowledge areas. These results highlight the importance of knowledge sharing among stakeholders when making decisions about connectivity. Additionally, the results from the individual‐based models suggested that the potential for a large, migratory life history form of YCT, in addition to self‐preference mating where they overlap with rainbow trout, had the strongest effects on outcomes for YCT. Exploring social and ecological drivers and outcomes to changing connectivity is useful for anticipating and adapting to unintended outcomes, as well as making decisions for desirable outcomes. The results from this study can contribute to the management dialogue surrounding stream connectivity in the Teton River, as well as to our understanding of connectivity conservation and its outcomes more broadly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Averting climate change‐induced forest diebacks increasingly relies on tree species planted outside of their natural range and on the addition of non‐native tree species to mixed‐species forests. However, the consequences of such changes for associated biodiversity remain poorly understood, especially for the forest canopy as a largely understudied forest stratum. Here, we used flight interception traps and a metabarcoding approach to study the taxonomic and functional (trophic guilds) composition and taxon richness of canopy arthropods. We sampled 15 monospecific and mixed stands of native European beech, native Norway spruce—planted outside its natural range—and non‐native Douglas fir in northwest Germany. We found that the diversity of arthropods was lower in non‐native Douglas fir compared with native beech stands. Taxon richness of herbivores was reduced by both conifer species. Other functional guilds, however, were not affected by stand type. Arthropod composition differed strongly between native broadleaved beech and monospecific coniferous (native spruce or non‐native Douglas fir) stands, with less pronounced differences between the native and non‐native conifers. Beech–conifer mixtures consistently hosted intermediate arthropod diversity and community composition compared with the respective monospecific stands. Moreover, arthropod diversity had a positive relationship with the number of canopy microhabitats. Our study shows that considering arthropod taxa of multiple functional groups reveals the multifaceted impact of non‐native tree species on forest canopy arthropod communities. Contrasting with previous studies that primarily focused on the forest floor, we found that native beech hosts a rich diversity of arthropods, compared with lower diversity and distinct communities in economically attractive, and especially in non‐native, conifers with few canopy microhabitats. Broadleaf–conifer mixtures did not perform better than native beech stands, but mitigated the negative effects of conifers, making such mixtures a compromise to foster both forest‐associated diversity and economic yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many degraded ecosystems have altered nutrient dynamics due to invaders' possessing a suite of traits that allow them to both outcompete native species and alter the environment. In ecosystems where invasive species have increased nutrient turnover rates, it can be difficult to reduce nutrient availability. This study examined whether a functional trait‐based restoration approach involving the planting of species with conservative nutrient‐use traits could slow rates of nutrient cycling and consequently reduce rates of invasion. We examined a functional trait restoration initiative in a heavily invaded lowland wet forest site in Hilo, Hawaiʻi. Native and introduced species were chosen to create four experimental hybrid forest communities, in comparison to the invaded forest, with a factorial design in which communities varied in rates of carbon turnover (slow or moderate [SLOW, MOD]), and in the relationship of species in trait space (redundant or complementary [RED, COMP]). After the first 5 years, we evaluated community‐level outcomes related to nutrient cycling: carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) via litterfall, litter decomposition, and outplant productivity and rates of invasion. We found that (1) regardless of treatment, the experimental communities had low rates of nutrient cycling through litterfall relative to the invaded reference forest, (2) the MOD communities had greater nutrient release via litterfall than the SLOW communities, (3) introduced species had greater nutrient release than native species in the two MOD experimental communities, and (4) within treatments, there was a positive relationship between nutrient levels and outplant basal area, but outplant basal area was negatively associated with rates of invasion. The negative relationships among basal area and weed invasion, particularly for the two COMP treatments, suggest species existing in different parts of trait space may help confer some degree of invasion resistance. The diversification of trait space was facilitated by the use of introduced species, a new concept in Hawaiian forest management. Although challenges remain in endeavors to restore this heavily degraded ecosystem, this study provides evidence that functional trait‐based restoration approaches using carefully crafted hybrid communities can reduce rates of nutrient cycling and invasion in order to reach management goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Restoration in dryland ecosystems often has poor success due to low and variable water availability, degraded soil conditions, and slow plant community recovery rates. Restoration treatments can mitigate these constraints but, because treatments and subsequent monitoring are typically limited in space and time, our understanding of their applicability across broader environmental gradients remains limited. To address this limitation, we implemented and monitored a standardized set of seeding and soil surface treatments (pits, mulch, and ConMod artificial nurse plants) designed to enhance soil moisture and seedling establishment across RestoreNet, a growing network of 21 diverse dryland restoration sites in the southwestern USA over 3 years. Generally, we found that the timing of precipitation relative to seeding and the use of soil surface treatments were more important in determining seeded species emergence, survival, and growth than site‐specific characteristics. Using soil surface treatments in tandem with seeding promoted up to 3× greater seedling emergence densities compared with seeding alone. The positive effect of soil surface treatments became more prominent with increased cumulative precipitation since seeding. The seed mix type with species currently found within or near a site and adapted to the historical climate promoted greater seedling emergence densities compared with the seed mix type with species from warmer, drier conditions expected to perform well under climate change. Seed mix and soil surface treatments had a diminishing effect as plants developed beyond the first season of establishment. However, we found strong effects of the initial period seeded and of the precipitation leading up to each monitoring date on seedling survival over time, especially for annual and perennial forbs. The presence of exotic species exerted a negative influence on seedling survival and growth, but not initial emergence. Our findings suggest that seeded species recruitment across drylands can generally be promoted, regardless of location, by (1) incorporation of soil surface treatments, (2) employment of near‐term seasonal climate forecasts, (3) suppression of exotic species, and (4) seeding at multiple times. Taken together, these results point to a multifaceted approach to ameliorate harsh environmental conditions for improved seeding success in drylands, both now and under expected aridification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many invasive and some native tree species in North America exhibit strong allelopathic effects that may contribute to their local dominance. Pyrogenic carbon (PyC; including soot, charcoal, and black carbon) is produced by the incomplete combustion of organic matter and is widespread in forest soils. Many forms of PyC have sorptive properties that can reduce the bioavailability of allelochemicals. We investigated the potential for PyC produced by controlled pyrolysis of biomass ("biochar" [BC]) to reduce the allelopathic effects of black walnut (Juglans nigra) and Norway maple (Acer platanoides), a common native tree species and a widespread invasive species in North America, respectively. Seedling growth of two native tree species (Acer saccharinum [silver maple] and Betula papyrifera [paper birch]) in response to leaf‐litter‐incubated soils was examined; litter incubation treatments included leaves of black walnut, Norway maple, and a nonallelopathic species (Tilia americana [American basswood]) in a factorial design with varying dosages; responses to the known primary allelochemical of black walnut (juglone) were also examined. Juglone and leaf litter of both allelopathic species strongly suppressed seedling growth. BC treatments substantially mitigated these effects, consistent with the sorption of allelochemicals; in contrast no positive effects of BC were observed in leaf litter treatments involving controls or additions of nonallelopathic leaf litter. Treatments of leaf litter and juglone with BC increased the total biomass of silver maple by ~35% and in some cases more than doubled the biomass of paper birch. We conclude that BCs have the capacity to largely counteract allelopathic effects in temperate forest systems, suggesting the effects of natural PyC in determining forest community structure, and also the applied use of BC as a soil amendment to mitigate allelopathic effects of invasive tree species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Island florae are under threat from habitat loss and competition with introduced species worldwide. In the Galapagos Islands, the endemic tree daisy Scalesia pedunculata (Asteraceae) is the dominant tree in the cloud forest of Santa Cruz Island but suffers from competition with the invasive blackberry Rubus niveus. At the site Los Gemelos, a S. pedunculata population was monitored from 2014 to 2021 following mechanical and chemical removal of R. niveus from 17 plots and compared with 17 additional plots where R. niveus remained. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impacts of the R. niveus invasion on S. pedunculata by characterizing the effects of R. niveus removal. Parameters measured in S. pedunculata were diameter at breast height (DBH, from which annual growth rates were determined), total height, survival of individual plants, and recruitment. In the presence of R. niveus, S. pedunculata trees had smaller DBH stems and shorter asymptotic maximum heights, growth rates declined for thin trees, the mortality of larger trees was elevated, and S. pedunculata recruitment was absent. R. niveus removal resulted in DBH‐ratios of S. pedunculata more frequently meeting our threshold for fast growth (1.2), trees growing significantly thicker and taller, annual mortality being lower (12.5% vs. 16.2% per year), and recruitment being successful. In the presence of R. niveus, lower survival, growth, and absent recruitment suggested that S. pedunculata could reach quasi‐extinction in ~20 years. Swift and decisive management action is needed to prevent the Scalesia forest on Santa Cruz Island from disappearing in less than two decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest removal for livestock grazing is a striking example of human‐caused state change leading to a stable, undesirable invasive grass system that is resistant to restoration efforts. Understanding which factors lead to resilience to the alternative grass state can greatly benefit managers when planning forest restoration. We address how thresholds of grass cover and seed rain might influence forest recovery in a restoration project on Hawaiʻi Island, USA. Since the 1980s, over 400,000 Acacia koa (koa) trees have been planted across degraded pasture, and invasive grasses still dominate the understory with no native woody‐plant recruitment. Between this koa/grass matrix are remnant native Metrosideros polymorpha (ʻōhiʻa) trees beneath which native woody plants naturally recruit. We tested whether there were threshold levels of native woody understory that accelerate recruitment under both tree species by monitoring seed rain at 40 trees (20 koa and ʻōhiʻa) with a range of native woody understory basal area (BA). We found a positive relationship between total seed rain (but not bird‐dispersed seed rain) and native woody BA and a negative relationship between native woody BA and grass cover, with no indication of threshold dynamics. We also experimentally combined grass removal levels with seed rain density (six levels) of two common understory species in plots under koa (n = 9) and remnant ʻōhiʻa (n = 9). Few seedlings emerged when no grass was removed despite adding seeds at densities two to 75 times higher than naturally occurring. However, seedling recruitment increased two to three times once at least 50% of grass was removed. Existing survey data of naturally occurring seedlings also supported a threshold of grass cover below which seedlings were able to establish. Thus, removal of all grasses is not necessary to achieve system responses: Even moderate reductions (~50%) can increase rates of native woody recruitment. The nonlinear thresholds found here highlight how incremental changes to an inhibitory factor lead to limited restoration success until a threshold is crossed. The resources needed to fully eradicate an invasive species may be unwarranted for state change, making understanding where thresholds lie of the utmost importance to prioritize resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long‐distance dispersal is a key factor explaining the success of invasive alien species, particularly across oceanic islands. However, it is often not feasible to reliably measure long‐distance seed dispersal (LDD) over many kilometers in the field. Here, we used a three‐dimensional kinematic trajectory model (Computing Atmospheric Trajectory tool [CAT]) initiated on the basis of regional wind field data to assess the potential for LDD of a wind‐dispersed invasive tree, Spathodea campanulata (African tulip tree), across the Society Islands (French Polynesia, South Pacific Ocean) following its initial planting and spread on the island of Tahiti. The main objective of our study was to determine whether S. campanulata could be expected to spread naturally among islands. Atmospheric dynamics, seed terminal velocity, precipitation, and temperature of air masses were considered to assess the potential for LDD between oceanic islands, with the island of Tahiti serving as the island source for multiple, geographically distant invasions. Aerial trajectories of modeled S. campanulata seeds indicated that wind‐dispersed seeds originating from trees on the island of Tahiti could reach most of the Society Islands and disperse as far as 1364 km. This result suggests that Spathodea can be expected to spread naturally among the Society Islands. When rainfall events were modeled as causal agents of seed settlement, fewer seeds reached distant islands, but more seeds settled on the closest island (20 km away). Including effects of island topography ("barrier effects") also resulted in more seeds settling on the closest island and fewer seeds reaching the most distant islands. Overall, our findings suggest that recent atmospheric models can provide valuable insights into LDD and invasion patterns of wind‐dispersed invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive species such as insects, pathogens, and weeds reaching new environments by traveling with the wind, represent unquantified and difficult‐to‐manage biosecurity threats to human, animal, and plant health in managed and natural ecosystems. Despite the importance of these invasion events, their complexity is reflected by the lack of tools to predict them. Here, we provide the first known evidence showing that the long‐distance aerial dispersal of invasive insects and wildfire smoke, a potential carrier of invasive species, is driven by atmospheric pathways known as Lagrangian coherent structures (LCS). An aerobiological modeling system combining LCS modeling with species biology and atmospheric survival has the potential to transform the understanding and prediction of atmospheric invasions. The proposed modeling system run in forecast or hindcast modes can inform high‐risk invasion events and invasion source locations, making it possible to locate them early, improving the chances of eradication success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite efforts to prevent their establishment, many invasive species continue to spread and threaten food production, human health, and natural biodiversity. Slowing the spread of established species is often a preferred strategy; however, it is also expensive and necessitates treatment over large areas. Therefore, it is critical to examine how to distribute management efforts over space cost‐effectively. Here we consider a continuous‐space bioeconomic model and we develop a novel algorithm to find the most cost‐effective allocation of treatment efforts throughout a landscape. We show that the optimal strategy often comprises eradication in the yet‐uninvaded area, and under certain conditions, it also comprises maintaining a "suppression zone," an area between the invaded and the uninvaded areas, where treatment reduces the invading population but without eliminating it. We examine how the optimal strategy depends on the demographic characteristics of the species and reveal general criteria for deciding when a suppression zone is cost effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive species and emerging infectious diseases are two of the greatest threats to biodiversity. American Bullfrogs (Rana [Lithobates] catesbeiana), which have been introduced to many parts of the world, are often linked with declines in native amphibians via predation and the spread of emerging pathogens such as amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis [Bd]) and ranaviruses. Although many studies have investigated the potential role of bullfrogs in the decline of native amphibians, analyses that account for shared habitat affinities and imperfect detection have found limited support for clear effects. Similarly, the role of bullfrogs in shaping the patch‐level distribution of pathogens is unclear. We used eDNA methods to sample 233 sites in the southwestern USA and Sonora, Mexico (2016–2018) to estimate how the presence of bullfrogs affects the occurrence of four native amphibians, Bd, and ranaviruses. Based on two‐species, dominant‐subordinate occupancy models fitted in a Bayesian context, federally threatened Chiricahua Leopard Frogs (Rana chiricahuensis) and Western Tiger Salamanders (Ambystoma mavortium) were eight times (32% vs. 4%) and two times (36% vs. 18%), respectively, less likely to occur at sites where bullfrogs occurred. Evidence for the negative effects of bullfrogs on Lowland Leopard Frogs (Rana yavapaiensis) and Northern Leopard Frogs (Rana pipiens) was less clear, possibly because of smaller numbers of sites where these native species still occurred and because bullfrogs often occur at lower densities in streams, the primary habitat for Lowland Leopard Frogs. At the community level, Bd was most likely to occur where bullfrogs co‐occurred with native amphibians, which could increase the risk to native species. Ranaviruses were estimated to occur at 33% of bullfrog‐only sites, 10% of sites where bullfrogs and native amphibians co‐occurred, and only 3% of sites where only native amphibians occurred. Of the 85 sites where we did not detect any of the five target amphibian species, we also did not detect Bd or ranaviruses; this suggests other hosts do not drive the distribution of these pathogens in our study area. Our results provide landscape‐scale evidence that bullfrogs reduce the occurrence of native amphibians and increase the occurrence of pathogens, information that can clarify risks and aid the prioritization of conservation actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent ecological research suggests that, in general, mixtures are more resistant to insect herbivores and pathogens than monocultures. However, we know little about mixtures with non‐native trees, where enemy release could lead to patterns that differ from commonly observed relationships among native species. This becomes particularly relevant when considering that adaptation strategies to climate change increasingly promote a larger share of non‐native tree species, such as North American Douglas fir in Central Europe. We studied leaf damage on European beech (Fagus sylvatica) saplings and mature trees across a wide range of site conditions in monocultures and mixtures with phylogenetically distant conifers native Norway spruce (Picea abies) and non‐native Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii). We analyzed leaf herbivory and pathogen damage in relation to tree diversity and composition effects, as well as effects of environmental factors and plant characteristics. We observed lower sapling herbivory and tree sucking damage on beech in non‐native Douglas fir mixtures than in beech monocultures, probably due to a lower herbivore diversity on Douglas fir trees, and higher pathogen damage on beech saplings in Norway spruce than Douglas fir mixtures, possibly because of higher canopy openness. Our findings suggest that for low diversity gradients, tree diversity effects on leaf damage can strongly depend on tree species composition, in addition to modifications caused by feeding guild and tree ontogeny. Moreover, we found that nutrient capacity modulated the effects of tree diversity, composition, and environmental factors, with different responses in sites with low or high nutrient capacity. The existence of contrasting diversity effects based on tree species composition provides important information on our understanding of the relationships between tree diversity and plant–herbivore interactions in light of non‐native tree species introductions. Especially with recent Norway spruce die‐off, the planting of Douglas fir as replacement is likely to strongly increase in Central Europe. Our findings suggest that mixtures with Douglas fir could benefit the survival or growth rates of beech saplings and mature trees due to lower leaf damage, emphasizing the need to clearly identify and compare the potential benefits and ecological trade‐offs of non‐native tree species in forest management under ongoing environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant species invasion represents one of the major drivers of biodiversity change globally, yet there is confusion about the nature of nonindigenous species (NIS) impact. This confusion stems from differing notions of what constitutes invasive species impact and the scales at which it should be assessed. At local scales, the mechanisms of the impact on local competitors can be classified into four scenarios: (1) minimal impact from NIS inhabiting unique niches; (2) neutral impact spread across the community and proportional to NIS abundance; (3) targeted impact on a small number of competitors with overlapping niches; and (4) pervasive impact that is disproportionate to NIS abundance and caused by modifications that filter out other species. I developed a statistical test to distinguish these four mechanism scenarios based on plant community rank‐abundance curves and then created a scale‐independent standardized impact score. Using an example long‐term dataset with high native plant diversity and an abundance gradient of the invasive vine, Vincetoxicum rossicum, I show that the impact resulted in either targeted or pervasive extirpations. Regardless of whether the NIS impact is neutral, targeted, or pervasive, the net outcome will be the homogenization of ecosystems and reduced biodiversity at larger scales, perhaps reducing ecosystem resilience. The framework and statistical evaluation of impact presented in this paper provide researchers and managers with an objective approach to quantifying NIS impact and prioritizing species for further management actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive species cause environmental degradation, decrease biodiversity, and alter ecosystem function. Invasions can also drive changes in vector‐borne and zoonotic diseases by altering important traits of wildlife hosts or disease vectors. Managing invasive species can restore biodiversity and ecosystem function, but it may have cascading effects on hosts, parasites, and human risk of infection. Water hyacinth, Eichhornia crassipes, is an extremely detrimental invader in many sites of human schistosome transmission, especially in Lake Victoria, where hyacinth is correlated with high snail abundance and hotspots of human schistosome infection. Hyacinth is often managed via removal or in situ destruction, but the effects of these strategies on snail intermediate hosts and schistosomes are not known. We evaluated the effects of water hyacinth invasion and these management strategies on the dynamics of human schistosomes, Schistosoma mansoni, and snails, Biomphalaria glabrata, in experimental mesocosms over 17 weeks. We hypothesized that hyacinth, which is inedible to snails, would affect snail growth, reproduction, and cercariae production through the balance of its competitive effects on edible algae and its production of edible detritus. We predicted that destruction would create a pulse of edible detrital resources, thereby increasing snail growth, reproduction, and parasite production. Conversely, we predicted that removal would have small or negligible effects on snails and schistosomes, because it would alleviate competition on edible algae without generating a resource pulse. We found that hyacinth invasion suppressed algae, changed the timing of peak snail abundance, and increased total production of human‐infectious cercariae ~6‐fold relative to uninvaded controls. Hyacinth management had complex effects on algae, snails, and schistosomes. Removal increased algal growth and snail abundance (but not biomass), and slightly reduced schistosome production. In contrast, destruction increased snail biomass (but not abundance), indicating increases in body size. Destruction caused the greatest schistosome production (10‐fold more than the control), consistent with evidence that larger snails with greater access to food are most infectious. Our results highlight the dynamic effects of invasion and management on a globally impactful human parasite and its intermediate host. Ultimately, preventing or removing hyacinth invasions would simultaneously benefit human and environmental health outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some introduced species cause severe damage, although the majority have little impact. Robust predictions of which species are most likely to cause substantial impacts could focus efforts to mitigate those impacts or prevent certain invasions entirely. Introduced herbivorous insects can reduce crop yield, fundamentally alter natural and managed forest ecosystems, and are unique among invasive species in that they require certain host plants to succeed. Recent studies have demonstrated that understanding the evolutionary history of introduced herbivores and their host plants can provide robust predictions of impact. Specifically, divergence times between hosts in the native and introduced ranges of a nonnative insect can be used to predict the potential impact of the insect should it establish in a novel ecosystem. However, divergence time estimates vary among published phylogenetic datasets, making it crucial to understand if and how the choice of phylogeny affects prediction of impact. Here, we tested the robustness of impact prediction to variation in host phylogeny by using insects that feed on conifers and predicting the likelihood of high impact using four different published phylogenies. Our analyses ranked 62 insects that are not established in North America and 47 North American conifer species according to overall risk and vulnerability, respectively. We found that results were robust to the choice of phylogeny. Although published vascular plant phylogenies continue to be refined, our analysis indicates that those differences are not substantial enough to alter the predictions of invader impact. Our results can assist in focusing biosecurity programs for conifer pests and can be more generally applied to nonnative insects and their potential hosts by prioritizing surveillance for those insects most likely to be damaging invaders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ecological integrity of US national parks and other protected areas are under threat in the Anthropocene. For Yellowstone National Park (YNP), the impacts that global change has already had on the park's capacity to sustain its large migratory herds of wild ungulates is incompletely understood. Here we examine how two understudied components of global change, the historical increase in atmospheric CO2 and the spread of nonnative, invasive plant species, may have altered the capacity of YNP to provide forage for ungulates over the last 200‐plus years. We performed two experiments: (1) a growth chamber study that determined the growth rates of important invasive and native YNP grasses that are forages for ungulates under preindustrial (280 ppm) versus modern (410 ppm) CO2 levels and (2) a field study that compared the effect of defoliation (clipping) on the shoot growth of invasive and native mesic grassland plants under ambient CO2 conditions in 2019. The growth chamber experiment revealed that modern CO2 increased the growth rates of both invasive and native grasses, and invasive grasses grew faster regardless of CO2 conditions. The field results showed a continuum of positive to negative responses of shoot growth to defoliation, with a subgroup of invasive species responding most positively. Altogether the results indicated that the historical increase in CO2 and the spread of invasive species, some of which were planted to provide forage for ungulates in the early and mid‐1900s, have likely increased the capacity of forage production in YNP. However, rising CO2 has also resulted in regional warming and increased aridity in YNP, which will likely reduce grassland productivity. The challenge for global change biologists and park managers is to determine how competing components of global change have already affected and will increasingly affect forage dynamics and the sustainability of Yellowstone's iconic ungulate herds in the Anthropocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding has shown promise as a tool for estimating biodiversity and early detection of invasive species. In aquatic systems, advantages of this method include the ability to concurrently monitor biodiversity and detect incipient invasions simply through the collection and analysis of water samples. However, depending on the molecular markers chosen for a given study, reference libraries containing target sequences from present species may limit the usefulness of eDNA metabarcoding. To explore the extent of this issue and how it may be resolved to aid biodiversity and invasive species early detection goals, we focus on fishes in the well‐studied Laurentian Great Lakes region. First, we provide a synthesis of species currently known from the region and of non‐indigenous species identified as threats by international, national, regional, and introduction pathway‐specific fish risk assessments. With these species lists, we then evaluate 23 primer pairs commonly used in fish eDNA metabarcoding with available databases of sequence coverage and species specificity. Finally, we identify established and potentially invasive non‐indigenous fish that should be prioritized for genetic sequencing to ensure robust eDNA metabarcoding for the region. Our results should increase confidence in using eDNA metabarcoding for fisheries conservation and management in the Great Lakes region and help prioritize reference sequencing efforts. The ultimate utility of eDNA metabarcoding approaches will come when conservation management of existing fish communities is integrated with early detection efforts for invasive species surveillance to assess total fish biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southwestern ponderosa pine forests are vulnerable to fire‐driven conversion in a warming and drying climate, yet little is known about what kinds of ecological communities may replace them. To characterize postfire vegetation trajectories and their environmental determinants, plant assemblages (361 sample plots including 229 vascular plant species, surveyed in 2017) were sampled within eight burns that occurred between 2000 and 2003. I used nonmetric multidimensional scaling, k‐means clustering, principal component analysis, and random forest models to assess relationships between vegetation pattern, topographic and landscape factors, and gridded climate data. I describe seven postfire community types, including regenerating forests of ponderosa pine, aspen, and mixed conifers, shrub‐dominated communities of Gambel oak and mixed species, and herb‐dominated communities of native bunchgrasses and mixtures of ruderal, native, and nonnative species. Forest recovery was generally associated with cooler, mesic sites in proximity to forested refugia; shifts toward scrub and grassland types were most common in warmer, dryer locations distant from forested refugia. Under future climate scenarios, models project decreases in postfire forest recovery and increases in nonforest vegetation. However, forest to nonforest conversion was partially offset under a scenario of reduced burn severity and increased retention of forested refugia, highlighting important management opportunities. Burning trends in the southwestern United States suggest that postfire vegetation will occupy a growing landscape fraction, compelling renewed management focus on these areas and paradigm shifts that accommodate ecological change. I illustrate how management decisions around resisting, accepting, or directing change could be informed by an understanding of processes and patterns of postfire community variation and likely future trajectories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globalization and economic growth are recognized as key drivers of biological invasions. Alien species have become a feature of almost every biological community worldwide, and rates of new introductions continue to rise as the movement of people and goods accelerates. Insects are among the most numerous and problematic alien organisms, and are mainly introduced unintentionally with imported cargo or arriving passengers. However, the processes occurring prior to insect introductions remain poorly understood. We used a unique dataset of 1,902,392 border interception records from inspections at air, land, and maritime ports in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Japan, USA, and Canada to identify key commodities associated with insect movement through trade and travel. In total, 8939 species were intercepted, and commodity association data were available for 1242 species recorded between 1960 and 2019. We used rarefaction and extrapolation methods to estimate the total species richness and diversity associated with different commodity types. Plant and wood products were the main commodities associated with insect movement across cargo, passenger baggage, and international mail. Furthermore, certain species were mainly associated with specific commodities within these, and other broad categories. More closely related species tended to share similar commodity associations, but this occurred largely at the genus level rather than within orders or families. These similarities within genera can potentially inform pathway management of new alien species. Combining interception records across regions provides a unique window into the unintentional movement of insects, and provides valuable information on establishment risks associated with different commodity types and pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat‐suitability indices (HSI) have been employed in restoration to identify optimal sites for planting native species. Often, HSI are based on abiotic variables and do not include biotic interactions, even though similar abiotic conditions can favor both native and nonnative species. Biotic interactions such as competition may be especially important in invader‐dominated habitats because invasive species often have fast growth rates and can exploit resources quickly. In this study, we test the utility of an HSI of microtopography derived from airborne LiDAR to predict post‐disturbance recovery and native planting success in native shrub‐dominated and nonnative, invasive grass‐dominated dryland habitats in Hawaiʻi. The HSI uses high‐resolution digital terrain models to classify sites' microtopography as high, medium, or low suitability, based on wind exposure and topographic position. We used a split‐plot before‐after‐control‐impact design to implement a disturbance experiment within native shrub (Dodonaea viscosa) and nonnative, invasive grass (Cenchrus clandestinus)‐dominated ecosystems across three microtopography categories. In contrast to previous studies using the same HSI, we found that microtopography was a poor predictor of pre‐disturbance conditions for soil nutrients, organic matter content, or foliar C:N, within both Dodonaea and Cenchrus vegetation types. In invader‐dominated Cenchrus plots, microtopography helped predict cover, but not as expected (i.e., highest cover would be in high‐suitability plots): D. viscosa had the greatest cover in low‐suitability and C. clandestinus had the greatest cover in medium‐suitability plots. Similarly, in native‐dominated Dodonaea plots, microtopography was a poor predictor of D. viscosa, C. clandestinus, and total plant cover. Although we found some evidence that microtopography helped inform post‐disturbance plant recovery of D. viscosa and total plant cover, vegetation type was a more important predictor. Important for considering the success of plantings, percent cover of D. viscosa decreased while percent cover of C. clandestinus increased within both vegetation types 20 months after disturbance. Our results are evidence that HSIs based on topographic features may prove most useful for choosing planting sites in harsh habitats or those already dominated by native species. In more productive habitats, competition from resident species may offset any benefits gained from "better" suitability sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive species management is key to conserving critically threatened native prairie ecosystems. While prescribed burning is widely demonstrated to increase native diversity and suppress invasive species, elucidating the conditions under which burning is most effective remains an ongoing focus of applied prairie ecology research. Understanding how conservation management interacts with climate is increasingly pressing, because climate change is altering weather conditions and seasonal timing around the world. Increasingly early growing seasons due to climate change are shifting the timing and availability of resources and niche space, which may disproportionately advantage invasive species and influence the outcome of burning. We estimated the effects of burning, start time of the growing season, and their interaction on invasive species relative cover and frequency, two metrics for species abundance and dominance. We used 25 observed prairie sites and 853 observations of 267 transects spread throughout Minnesota, USA from 2010 to 2019 to conduct our analysis. Here, we show that burning reduced the abundance of invasive cool‐season grasses, leading to reduced abundance of invasive species as a whole. This reduction persisted over time for invasive cover but quickly waned for their frequency of occurrence. Additionally, and contrary to expectations that early growing season starts benefit invasive species, we found evidence that later growing season starts increased the abundance of some invasive species. However, the effects of burning on plant communities were largely unaltered by the timing of the growing season, although earlier growing season starts weakened the effectiveness of burning on Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis) and smooth brome (Bromus inermis), two of the most dominant invasive species in the region. Our results suggest that prescribed burning will likely continue to be a useful conservation tool in the context of earlier growing season starts, and that changes to growing season timing will not be a primary mechanism driving increased invasion due to climate change in these ecosystems. We propose that future research seek to better understand abiotic controls on invasive species phenology in managed systems and how burning intensity and timing interact with spring conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dispersal drives invasion dynamics of nonnative species and pathogens. Applying knowledge of dispersal to optimize the management of invasions can mean the difference between a failed and a successful control program and dramatically improve the return on investment of control efforts. A common approach to identifying optimal management solutions for invasions is to optimize dynamic spatial models that incorporate dispersal. Optimizing these spatial models can be very challenging because the interaction of time, space, and uncertainty rapidly amplifies the number of dimensions being considered. Addressing such problems requires advances in and the integration of techniques from multiple fields, including ecology, decision analysis, bioeconomics, natural resource management, and optimization. By synthesizing recent advances from these diverse fields, we provide a workflow for applying ecological theory to advance optimal management science and highlight priorities for optimizing the control of invasions. One of the striking gaps we identify is the extremely limited consideration of dispersal uncertainty in optimal management frameworks, even though dispersal estimates are highly uncertain and greatly influence invasion outcomes. In addition, optimization frameworks rarely consider multiple types of uncertainty (we describe five major types) and their interrelationships. Thus, feedbacks from management or other sources that could magnify uncertainty in dispersal are rarely considered. Incorporating uncertainty is crucial for improving transparency in decision risks and identifying optimal management strategies. We discuss gaps and solutions to the challenges of optimization using dynamic spatial models to increase the practical application of these important tools and improve the consistency and robustness of management recommendations for invasions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is widely known to affect plant phenology, but little is known about how these impacts manifest in the widespread sagebrush ecosystem of the Western United States, which supports a number of wildlife species of concern. Shifts in plant phenology can trigger consequences for the plants themselves as well as the communities of consumers that depend upon them. We assembled historical observations of first‐flowering dates for 51 species collected in the 1970s and 1980s in a montane sagebrush community in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and compared these to contemporary phenological observations targeting the same species and locations (2016–2019). We also assembled regional climate data (average spring temperature, day of spring snowmelt, and growing degree days) and tested the relationship between first‐flowering time and these variables for each species. We observed the largest change in phenology in early‐spring flowers, which, as a group, bloomed on average 17 days earlier, and as much as 36 days earlier, in the contemporary data set. Mid‐summer flowers bloomed on average 10 days earlier, nonnative species 15 days earlier, and berry‐producing shrubs 5 days earlier, while late summer flowering plants did not shift. The greatest correlates of early‐spring and mid‐summer flowering were average spring temperature and day of snowmelt, which was 21 days earlier, on average, in 2016–2019 relative to the 1973–1978 observations. The shifts in flowering phenology that we observed could indicate developing asynchronies or novel synchronies of these plant resources and wildlife species of conservation concern, including Greater Sage‐grouse, whose nesting success is tied to availability of spring forbs; grizzly bears, which rely heavily on berries for their fall diet; and pollinators. This underscores the importance of maintaining a diverse portfolio of native plants in terms of species composition, genetics, phenological responsiveness to climatic cues, and ecological importance to key wildlife and pollinator species. Redundancy within ecological niches may also be important considering that species roles in the community may shift as climate change affects them differently. These considerations are particularly relevant to restoration and habitat‐enhancement projects in sagebrush communities across western North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Planned fire is increasingly recognized as an important tool in conservation, but other factors such as land‐use change may hinder the ability of land managers to use fire for the benefit of biodiversity. The mosaic of past fires in native vegetation may interact with the mosaic of other land‐cover types in human‐modified landscapes, yet the effects of these interactions on mammal communities are unknown. We investigated the responses of ground‐dwelling mammal community composition and species richness to interactions between land cover and post‐fire vegetation growth‐stage mosaics in southern Australia. This fire‐prone, human‐modified landscape features a fine‐scale fire mosaic in native vegetation patches surrounded by pasture, horticulture, and peri‐urban environments. We measured the composition of land‐cover types and fire mosaics (landscape structure) at multiple scales of up to 1257 ha surrounding 129 study sites, and considered native and introduced species together and separately. Land‐cover composition was the primary driver of community composition: native species favored areas with a greater proportion of native heathy woodland, whereas introduced species were associated with landscapes comprising more cleared land. The fire mosaic also influenced community composition and species richness: greater growth‐stage diversity was associated with native habitat‐specialist communities and fewer introduced species. In areas with more cleared land, native species richness increased when there was a greater proportion of mid‐successional vegetation, demonstrating that the effect of fire mosaics on mammal diversity depended on land‐cover composition. The positive relationship between introduced species richness and cleared land extent was also stronger in recently burned sites than in other growth stages, suggesting that introduced species are well suited to more modified areas of the landscape. Land managers need to consider the underlying land‐cover composition and the potential interactions it may have with fire mosaics and species composition. In this landscape a greater diversity of growth stages may disadvantage introduced species yet an increase in mid‐successional vegetation in more modified areas would be likely to benefit native mammal communities. Our study highlights that fire management may need to be tailored depending on the context of land use and the species of interest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insect taxa vary in their phenology across space creating dissimilar patterns of species abundance over time. The role of human disturbances and invasive species in these patterns of temporal dissimilarity (phenological differences) across space, however, remain largely unexplored. To dissect these patterns, we evaluated four common pests and one newly invasive species (Contarinia nasturtii; Swede midge) at 220 time points across 2 years on organic and conventional farms. We first summarized across time and evaluated differences in pest abundance between farm management (organic and conventional). We then used generalized additive models to describe temporal patterns of abundance, disentangling phenological differences across management systems. Last, we conducted a temporal beta diversity analysis to identify which species and management practices contribute most to dissimilarity. We found that aggregating pest abundance across time and species masked differences in pest phenology across management systems and concealed variation in pest abundance that was strongly driven by an invasive species, respectively. Overall, our results suggest that organic and conventional farms may be only superficially similar in pest abundance. Rather, by accounting for time, we demonstrate a more nuanced understanding of pest communities moving beyond abundance that may be particularly important for management of newly invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The January 2024 issue of Ecological Applications focuses on the topic of biological invasions and their impact on the global environment and economy. The issue includes a special feature on the Management of Biological Invasions in China, which explores strategies for controlling and mitigating invasive species. The cover image of the issue shows the invasion range of S. alterniflora in salt marshes in the Yellow River Delta, China, and highlights the process and pattern of its landward expansion along tidal channels. The image suggests that the meandering geomorphology of tidal channels could facilitate the spread of cordgrass by creating invasion windows. [Extracted from the article]

Agricultural biosecurity interventions are aimed at minimizing introductions of harmful non‐native organisms to new areas via agricultural trade. To prioritize such interventions, historical data on interceptions have been used to elucidate which factors determine the likelihood that a particular import is carrying a harmful organism. Here we use an interception data set of arthropod contaminants recorded on plant imports arriving in South Africa from 2005 to 2019, comprising 13,566 samples inspected for arthropod contaminants, of which 4902 were positive for the presence of at least one arthropod. We tested 29 predictor variables that have previously been used to explain variation in rates of detection and three variables describing possible sources of additional variation and grouped these into six mutually exclusive "factor classes." We used boosted regression trees as a non‐parametric stochastic machine‐learning method to build models for each factor class and interactions between them. We explored the influence of these variables with data split either randomly or chronologically. While we identified some specific patterns that could be explained post‐hoc by historical events, only inspected volumes were reliably correlated with detection of arthropod contaminants across the whole data set. However, inspected volumes could not predict future interceptions of arthropods, which instead relied on contextual factors such as country, crop or year of import. This suggests that, although certain factors may be important in certain circumstances or for particular crops or commodities, there is little general predictive power in the current data. Instead, an idiographic approach would be most beneficial in biosecurity to ascertain the details of why a particular pest arrived on a particular pathway and how it might move (and be stopped) in future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trees can have large effects on soil nutrients in ways that alter succession, particularly in the case of nitrogen‐(N)‐fixing trees. In Hawaiʻi, forest restoration relies heavily on use of a native N‐fixing tree, Acacia koa (koa), but this species increases soil‐available N and likely facilitates competitive dominance of exotic pasture grasses. In contrast, Metrosideros polymorpha ('ōhi'a), the dominant native tree in Hawaiʻi, is less often planted because it is slow growing; yet it is typically associated with lower soil N and grass biomass, and greater native understory recruitment. We experimentally tested whether it is possible to reverse high soil N under koa by adding 'ōhi'a litter, using additions of koa litter or no litter as controls, over 2.5 yr. We then quantified natural litterfall and decomposition rates of 'ōhi'a and koa litter to place litter additions in perspective. Finally, we quantified whether litter additions altered grass biomass and if this had effects on native outplants. Adding 'ōhi'a litter increased soil carbon, but increased rather than decreased inorganic soil N pools. Contrary to expectations, koa litter decomposed more slowly than 'ōhi'a, although it released more N per unit of litter. We saw no reduction in grass biomass due to 'ōhi'a litter addition, and no change in native outplanted understory survival or growth. We conclude that the high N soil conditions under koa are difficult to reverse. However, we also found that outplanted native woody species were able to decrease exotic grass biomass over time, regardless of the litter environment, making this a better strategy for lowering exotic species impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Processes of spread and patterns of persistence of invasive species affect species and communities in the new environment. Predicting future rates of spread is of great interest for timely management decisions, but this depends on models that rely on understanding the processes of invasion and historic observations of spread and persistence. Unfortunately, the rates of spread and patterns of persistence are difficult to model or directly observe, especially when multiple rates of spread and diverse persistence patterns may be co-occurring over the geographic distribution of the invaded ecosystem. Remote sensing systematically acquires data over large areas at fine spatial and spectral resolutions over multiple time periods that can be used to quantify spread processes and persistence patterns. We used airborne imaging spectroscopy data acquired once a year for 5 years from 2004 to 2008 to map an invaded submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) community across 2220 km2 of waterways in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, California, USA, and measured its spread rate and its persistence. Submerged aquatic vegetation covered 13-23 km2 of the waterways (6-11%) every year. Yearly new growth accounted for 40-60% of the SAV area, ~50% of which survived to following year. Spread rates were overall negative and persistence decreased with time. From this dataset, we were able to identify both radial and saltatorial spread of the invaded SAV in the entire extent of the Delta over time. With both decreasing spread rate and persistence, it is possible that over time the invasion of this SAV community could decrease its ecological impact. A landscape-scale approach allows measurements of all invasion fronts and the spatial anisotropies associated with spread processes and persistence patterns, without spatial interpolation, at locations both proximate and distant to the focus of invasion at multiple points in time.

Trade‐offs exist between the point of early detection and the future cost of controlling any invasive species. Finding optimal levels of early detection, with post‐border active surveillance, where time, space and randomness are explicitly considered, is computationally challenging. We use a stochastic programming model to find the optimal level of surveillance and predict damages, easing the computational challenge by combining a sample average approximation (SAA) approach and parallel processing techniques. The model is applied to the case of Asian Papaya Fruit Fly (PFF), a highly destructive pest, in Queensland, Australia. To capture the non‐linearity in PFF spread, we use an agent‐based model (ABM), which is calibrated to a highly detailed land‐use raster map (50 m × 50 m) and weather‐related data, validated against a historical outbreak. The combination of SAA and ABM sets our work apart from the existing literature. Indeed, despite its increasing popularity as a powerful analytical tool, given its granularity and capability to model the system of interest adequately, the complexity of ABM limits its application in optimizing frameworks due to considerable uncertainty about solution quality. In this light, the use of SAA ensures quality in the optimal solution (with a measured optimality gap) while still being able to handle large‐scale decision‐making problems. With this combination, our application suggests that the optimal (economic) trap grid size for PFF in Queensland is ˜0.7 km, much smaller than the currently implemented level of 5 km. Although the current policy implies a much lower surveillance cost per year, compared with the $2.08 million under our optimal policy, the expected total cost of an outbreak is $23.92 million, much higher than the optimal policy of roughly $7.74 million. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As part of national biosecurity programs, cargo imports, passenger baggage, and international mail are inspected at ports of entry to verify compliance with phytosanitary regulations and to intercept potentially damaging nonnative species to prevent their introduction. Detection of organisms during inspections may also provide crucial information about the species composition and relative arrival rates in invasion pathways that can inform the implementation of other biosecurity practices such as quarantines and surveillance. In most regions, insects are the main taxonomic group encountered during inspections. We gathered insect interception data from nine world regions collected from 1995 to 2019 to compare the composition of species arriving at ports in these regions. Collectively, 8,716 insect species were intercepted in these regions over the last 25 yr, with the combined international data set comprising 1,899,573 interception events, of which 863,972 were identified to species level. Rarefaction analysis indicated that interceptions comprise only a small fraction of species present in invasion pathways. Despite differences in inspection methodologies, as well as differences in the composition of import source regions and imported commodities, we found strong positive correlations in species interception frequencies between regions, particularly within the Hemiptera and Thysanoptera. There were also significant differences in species frequencies among insects intercepted in different regions. Nevertheless, integrating interception data among multiple regions would be valuable for estimating invasion risks for insect species with high likelihoods of introduction as well as for identifying rare but potentially damaging species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimates of species abundance are critical to understand population processes and to assess and select management actions. However, capturing and marking individuals for abundance estimation, while providing robust information, can be economically and logistically prohibitive, particularly for species with cryptic behavior. Camera traps can be used to collect data at temporal and spatial scales necessary for estimating abundance, but the use of camera traps comes with limitations when target species are not uniquely identifiable (i.e., "unmarked"). Abundance estimation is particularly useful in the management of invasive species, with herpetofauna being recognized as some of the most pervasive and detrimental invasive vertebrate species. However, the use of camera traps for these taxa presents additional challenges with relevancy across multiple taxa. It is often necessary to use lures to attract animals in order to obtain sufficient observations, yet lure attraction can influence species' landscape use and potentially induce bias in abundance estimators. We investigated these challenges and assessed the feasibility of obtaining reliable abundance estimates using camera‐trapping data on a population of invasive brown treesnakes (Boiga irregularis) in Guam. Data were collected using camera traps in an enclosed area where snakes were subject to high‐intensity capture–recapture effort, resulting in presumed abundance of 116 snakes (density = 23/ha). We then applied spatial count, random encounter and staying time, space to event, and instantaneous sampling estimators to photo‐capture data to estimate abundance and compared estimates to our presumed abundance. We found that all estimators for unmarked populations performed poorly, with inaccurate or imprecise abundance estimates that limit their usefulness for management in this system. We further investigated the sensitivity of these estimators to the use of lures (i.e., violating the assumption that animal behavior is unchanged by sampling) and camera density in a simulation study. Increasing the effective distances of a lure (i.e., lure attraction) and camera density both resulted in biased abundance estimates. Each estimator rarely recovered truth or suffered from convergence issues. Our results indicate that, when limited to unmarked estimators and the use of lures, camera traps alone are unlikely to produce abundance estimates with utility for brown treesnake management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A greater understanding and effective management of biological invasions is a priority for biodiversity conservation globally. Many freshwater ecosystems are experiencing the colonization and spread of multiple co‐occurrent alien species. Here the implications of both the relative abundance and richness of alien invaders on aquatic macroinvertebrate taxonomic and functional richness, ecosystem quality, and functional redundancy are assessed using long‐term data from rivers in England. Based on the most common aquatic invaders, results indicated that their richness, rather than abundance, was the most important factor negatively affecting aquatic macroinvertebrate biodiversity. However, the response of functional redundancy was negatively affected by invader abundance at the river basin scale. The response of communities varied as the number of invading taxa increased, with the most marked reductions following the colonization of the first few invaders. Results indicate that different facets of multiple biological invasions influence distinct aspects of aquatic biodiversity. Preventing the establishment of new invaders and limiting invader taxa richness within a community should therefore be a conservation priority. These findings will assist river scientists in understanding mechanisms driving changes in biodiversity and facilitate the testing of ecological theories while also ensuring environmental managers and regulators can prioritize conservation / management opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive mosquitoes are expanding their ranges into new geographic areas and interacting with resident mosquito species. Understanding how novel interactions can affect mosquito population dynamics is necessary to predict transmission risk at invasion fronts. Mosquito life‐history traits are extremely sensitive to temperature, and this can lead to temperature‐dependent competition between competing invasive mosquito species. We explored temperature‐dependent competition between Aedes aegypti and Anopheles stephensi, two invasive mosquito species whose distributions overlap in India, the Middle East, and North Africa, where An. stephensi is currently expanding into the endemic range of Ae. aegypti. We followed mosquito cohorts raised at different intraspecific and interspecific densities across five temperatures (16–32°C) to measure traits relevant for population growth and to estimate species' per capita growth rates. We then used these growth rates to derive each species' competitive ability at each temperature. We find strong evidence for asymmetric competition at all temperatures, with Ae. aegypti emerging as the dominant competitor. This was primarily because of differences in larval survival and development times across all temperatures that resulted in a higher estimated intrinsic growth rate and competitive tolerance estimate for Ae. aegypti compared to An. stephensi. The spread of An. stephensi into the African continent could lead to urban transmission of malaria, an otherwise rural disease, increasing the human population at risk and complicating malaria elimination efforts. Competition has resulted in habitat segregation of other invasive mosquito species, and our results suggest that it may play a role in determining the distribution of An. stephensi across its invasive range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geographic profiling, a mathematical model originally developed in criminology, is increasingly being used in ecology and epidemiology. Geographic profiling boasts a wide range of applications, such as finding source populations of invasive species or breeding sites of vectors of infectious disease. The model provides a cost‐effective approach for prioritizing search strategies for source locations and does so via simple data in the form of the positions of each observation, such as individual sightings of invasive species or cases of a disease. In doing so, however, classic geographic profiling approaches fail to make the distinction between those areas containing observed absences and those areas where no data were recorded. Absence data are generated via spatial sampling protocols but are often discarded during the inference process. Here we construct a geographic profiling model that resolves these issues by making inferences via count data, analyzing a set of discrete sentinel locations at which the number of encounters has been recorded. Crucially, in our model this number can be zero. We verify the ability of this new model to estimate source locations and other parameters of practical interest via a Bayesian power analysis. We also measure model performance via real‐world data in which the model infers breeding locations of mosquitoes in bromeliads in Miami‐Dade County, Florida, USA. In both cases, our novel model produces more efficient search strategies by shifting focus from those areas containing observed absences to those with no data, an improvement over existing models that treat these areas equally. Our model makes important improvements upon classic geographic profiling methods, which will significantly enhance real‐world efforts to develop conservation management plans and targeted interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contribution of urban greenspaces to support biodiversity and provide benefits for people is increasingly recognized. However, ongoing management practices favor vegetation oversimplification, often limiting greenspaces to lawns and tree canopy rather than multi‐layered vegetation that includes under‐ and midstorey, and the use of nonnative species. These practices hinder the potential of greenspaces to sustain indigenous biodiversity, particularly for taxa like insects that rely on plants for food and habitat. Yet, little is known about which plant species may maximize positive outcomes for taxonomically and functionally diverse insect communities in greenspaces. Additionally, while cities are expected to experience high rates of introductions, quantitative assessments of the relative occupancy of indigenous vs. introduced insect species in greenspace are rare, hindering understanding of how management may promote indigenous biodiversity while limiting the establishment of introduced insects. Using a hierarchically replicated study design across 15 public parks, we recorded occurrence data from 552 insect species on 133 plant species, differing in planting design element (lawn, midstorey, and tree canopy), midstorey growth form (forbs, lilioids, graminoids, and shrubs) and origin (nonnative, native, and indigenous), to assess (1) the relative contributions of indigenous and introduced insect species and (2) which plant species sustained the highest number of indigenous insects. We found that the insect community was overwhelmingly composed of indigenous rather than introduced species. Our findings further highlight the core role of multi‐layered vegetation in sustaining high insect biodiversity in urban areas, with indigenous midstorey and canopy representing key elements to maintain rich and functionally diverse indigenous insect communities. Intriguingly, graminoids supported the highest indigenous insect richness across all studied growth forms by plant origin groups. Our work highlights the opportunity presented by indigenous understory and midstorey plants, particularly indigenous graminoids, in our study area to promote indigenous insect biodiversity in urban greenspaces. Our study provides a blueprint and stimulus for architects, engineers, developers, designers, and planners to incorporate into their practice plant species palettes that foster a larger presence of indigenous over regionally native or nonnative plant species, while incorporating a broader mixture of midstorey growth forms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is considerable evidence that keeping propagule pressure low can drastically reduce establishment probability of potential invasive species. Yet, most management plans and research efforts fail to explicitly acknowledge all three of the components of propagule pressure: size, number, and the risk–release relationship. It is unclear how failing to specify one or more of these components can influence the efficacy of management plans in preventing invasive species establishment. Furthermore, even if all components are acknowledged and quantified, there currently is no mathematical tool available to calculate the levels of propagule pressure that ensure attainment of a predetermined, and system‐specific, target establishment probability. Here, we quantify the resulting uncertainty in establishment probability when one or more components of propagule pressure is unknown by using parameter uncertainty analysis on realistic values of propagule pressure. In addition, to aid in the development of management plans that explicitly set propagule pressure limits, we develop a propagule‐pressure sensitivity analysis that we use to determine the required reduction in levels for propagule size and number (representative of management actions) to maintain a target establishment probability. We show that the precision of establishment estimates is highly dependent on knowledge of all three propagule pressure components, where the possible range of values for establishment probability can vary by over 50% without full specification. In addition, our sensitivity analysis showed that propagule size and number can be altered independently or in conjunction to lower establishment probability below a target level. Importantly, our sensitivity analysis was able to specifically quantify how much reduction in a propagule pressure component(s) is needed to reach a given target establishment probability. Our findings suggest that quantifying the three components of propagule pressure should be a priority for invasive species prevention moving forward. Furthermore, our sensitivity analysis tool can serve to guide the development of new invasive species management plans in a transparent and quantitative manner. Together with information on the costs associated with approaches to reducing propagule pressure, our tool can be used to identify the most cost‐effective approach to prevent invasive species establishments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Managing ecosystems in the face of complex species interactions, and the associated uncertainty, presents a considerable ecological challenge. Altering those interactions via actions such as invasive species management or conservation translocations can result in unintended consequences, supporting the need to be able to make more informed decisions in the face of this uncertainty. We demonstrate the utility of ecosystem models to reduce uncertainty and inform future ecosystem management. We use Phillip Island, Australia, as a case study to investigate the impacts of two invasive species management options and consider whether a critically endangered mammal is likely to establish a population in the presence of invasive species. Qualitative models are used to determine the effects of apex predator removal (feral cats) and invasive prey removal (rabbits, rats, and mice). We extend this approach using Ensemble Ecosystem Models to consider how suppression, rather than eradication influences the species community; and consider whether an introduction of the critically endangered eastern barred bandicoot is likely to be successful in the presence of invasive species. Our analysis revealed the potential for unintended outcomes associated with feral cat control operations, with rats and rabbits expected to increase in abundance. A strategy based on managing prey species appeared to have the most ecosystem‐wide benefits, with rodent control showing more favorable responses than a rabbit control strategy. Eastern barred bandicoots were predicted to persist under all feral cat control levels (including no control). Managing ecosystems is a complex and imprecise process. However, qualitative modeling and ensemble ecosystem modeling address uncertainty and are capable of improving and optimizing management practices. Our analysis shows that the best conservation outcomes may not always be associated with the top‐down control of apex predators, and land managers should think more broadly in relation to managing bottom‐up processes as well. Challenges faced in continuing to conserve biodiversity mean new, bolder, conservation actions are needed. We suggest that endangered species are capable of surviving in the presence of feral cats, potentially opening the door for more conservation translocations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]