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Estimates of the present and future extent of the prevalence of HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) infection throughout the world are continually updated by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Global Programme on AIDS (GPA), using available data and annual progression rates. Large increases in the number of AIDS cases have been projected for the early 1990s. The Delphi method of estimation is now being used by WHO to supply qualified estimates by knowledgeable 'experts' via questionnaire responses. The Delphi projection of cases of HIV infection for the year 2000 is between 3 and 4 times the 1988 estimate of 5.1 million cases. This figure takes into account the successful prevention of almost half of all new HIV infections, which would otherwise occur between 1988 and 2000 without HIV/AIDS prevention and control programmes. Recent data suggest that only minor variations occur in the progression rate of HIV infection to the development of AIDS in various areas of the world, and among infection transmission routes. The only clear exception to this rule is that AIDS progression is much faster in HIV-infected children than in adults. To date the only progression estimates that are available for the adult population are that 20 percent of infected individuals will have AIDS within 5 years, and 50 percent will develop AIDS within 10 years. These statistical estimates lead to grim conclusions. The Delphi group estimates that the second decade of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, the 1990s, will be much worse than the first one, with cumulative adult AIDS cases rising from one million by 1990, to over five million during the 1990s. These estimates highlight the importance of developing health and social service networks capable of responding to this greatly increasing need. (Consumer Summary produced by Reliance Medical Information, Inc.)

In many parts of the world, reporting of the incidence of AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) is very incomplete or has just been started. An epidemiologically-based model has been developed to estimate the number of AIDS cases which exist and to predict the number of cases that will develop in the next ten years. The model is based upon the current understanding of HIV (human immunodeficiency virus), including the number of infected persons and what proportion of them will develop AIDS. Because of the long incubation period of approximately eight to nine years from infection to the development of AIDS, individuals who will develop the disease from 1989 to 1994 will primarily be those who were infected in or before the year 1987. The World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated that in 1987 there were five to ten million people worldwide who were infected with HIV. Using the lower figure of five million who were infected in 1987, the projected number of AIDS cases by late 1991 is greater than one million, and for the mid-to-late 1990s is two to three million. AIDS will be a major health care problem worldwide. Accurate prediction is necessary to effectively plan medical services and to prevent further spread of the disease. A typical level of AIDS for a given geographical area or population will eventually be established. That level will depend upon the effectiveness of prevention programs that are now being established. (Consumer Summary produced by Reliance Medical Information, Inc.)

One reason why HIV/AIDS is a formidable foe is its capacity to attack the body's immune cells. Life-prolonging antiretroviral drugs are efficacious because they can block viral assault on the [...]

HIV prevalence levels remain comparatively low in most countries of Asia and the Pacific. That, though, offers no cause for comfort. In vast, populous countries such as China, India and [...]

South Africans have made substantial changes to their sexual behaviour and fewer people are living with HIV than was previously estimated, according to results from the biggest household HIV/AIDS study [...]