Global surveillance and forecasting of AIDS

In many parts of the world, reporting of the incidence of AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) is very incomplete or has just been started. An epidemiologically-based model has been developed to estimate the number of AIDS cases which exist and to predict the number of cases that will develop in the next ten years. The model is based upon the current understanding of HIV (human immunodeficiency virus), including the number of infected persons and what proportion of them will develop AIDS. Because of the long incubation period of approximately eight to nine years from infection to the development of AIDS, individuals who will develop the disease from 1989 to 1994 will primarily be those who were infected in or before the year 1987. The World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated that in 1987 there were five to ten million people worldwide who were infected with HIV. Using the lower figure of five million who were infected in 1987, the projected number of AIDS cases by late 1991 is greater than one million, and for the mid-to-late 1990s is two to three million. AIDS will be a major health care problem worldwide. Accurate prediction is necessary to effectively plan medical services and to prevent further spread of the disease. A typical level of AIDS for a given geographical area or population will eventually be established. That level will depend upon the effectiveness of prevention programs that are now being established. (Consumer Summary produced by Reliance Medical Information, Inc.)