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Background: We examined the associations between germline variants and breast cancer mortality using a large meta-analysis of women of European ancestry., Methods: Meta-analyses included summary estimates based on Cox models of twelve datasets using ~10.4 million variants for 96,661 women with breast cancer and 7697 events (breast cancer-specific deaths). Oestrogen receptor (ER)-specific analyses were based on 64,171 ER-positive (4116) and 16,172 ER-negative (2125) patients. We evaluated the probability of a signal to be a true positive using the Bayesian false discovery probability (BFDP)., Results: We did not find any variant associated with breast cancer-specific mortality at P < 5 × 10 -8 . For ER-positive disease, the most significantly associated variant was chr7:rs4717568 (BFDP = 7%, P = 1.28 × 10 -7 , hazard ratio [HR] = 0.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.84-0.92); the closest gene is AUTS2. For ER-negative disease, the most significant variant was chr7:rs67918676 (BFDP = 11%, P = 1.38 × 10 -7 , HR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.16-1.39); located within a long intergenic non-coding RNA gene (AC004009.3), close to the HOXA gene cluster., Conclusions: We uncovered germline variants on chromosome 7 at BFDP < 15% close to genes for which there is biological evidence related to breast cancer outcome. However, the paucity of variants associated with mortality at genome-wide significance underpins the challenge in providing genetic-based individualised prognostic information for breast cancer patients.

Background: We report cardiac events in the Persephone trial which compares 6-12 months of adjuvant trastuzumab in women with confirmed HER2-positive, early-stage breast cancer., Methods: Clinical cardiac events were defined as any of the following: symptoms and/or signs of congestive heart failure (CHF) and new or altered CHF medication. In addition, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was measured at baseline and then 3 monthly for 12 months., Results: A total of 2500 patients, aged 22-82, were included: 1251 randomised to 12 months and 1249 to 6 months of trastuzumab treatment. A total of 93% (2335/2500) received anthracyclines, 49% of these (1136/2335) with taxanes. Cardiotoxicity delayed treatment in 6% of 12-month and 4% of 6-month patients (P=0.01), and stopped treatment early in 8% (96/1214) of 12-month and 4% (45/1216) of 6-month patients (P<0.0001). Between 7 and 12 months, more 12-month than 6-month patients had LVEFs<50% (8% vs 5%; P=0.004). LVEFs showed quadratic change over time, and 6-month patients had a more rapid recovery (P=0.02). In a landmark analysis twice as many 12-month patients, free of cardiac events at 6 months, had cardiac problems in months 7-12 (6% (66/1046) vs 3% (29/1035) of 6-month patients (P=0.0002)). Lower baseline LVEF predicted more cardiac dysfunction in both arms (reference ⩾65%: 55 to <65% OR 1.61 (95% CI 1.26-2.04); <55% OR 5.22 (3.42-7.95)) as did increasing age (reference <50: 50-59 OR 1.58 (1.17-2.12), 60-69 OR 1.91 (1.42-2.57)) 70+ OR 2.72 (1.82-4.08)) and prior use of cardiac medication (OR 8.46 (4.69-15.25)). >3 cycles of anthracycline was associated with higher risk of cardiac events only for 12-month patients (OR 1.41 (1.04-1.90)), and not for 6-month patients (OR 1.28 (0.91-1.79))., Conclusions: We demonstrate significantly fewer cardiac events from 6 months of adjuvant trastuzumab compared with that from 12 months. This cardiac signal adds importance to the question of the optimum duration of adjuvant trastuzumab treatment. If 6 months is proven to have non-inferior outcomes to 12 months treatment, these data would support 6 months as the standard of care., Competing Interests: HME reports grants from NIHR HTA during the conduct of the study. JD reports grants from NIHR HTA during the conduct of the study. SL reports grants from NIHR HTA during the conduct of the study. LH reports grants from NIHR HTA during the conduct of the study. AW reports personal fees from Roche, outside the submitted work. DC reports his institution was paid for consultancy work by DC from Roche, outside the submitted work. A-LV, EO, AH, IG, CP, DM, LH-D, KM and JH declare no conflicts of interest.

Background: Response to treatments is highly heterogeneous in cancer. Increased availability of biomarkers and targeted treatments has led to the need for trial designs that efficiently test new treatments in biomarker-stratified patient subgroups., Methods: We propose a novel Bayesian adaptive randomisation (BAR) design for use in multi-arm phase II trials where biomarkers exist that are potentially predictive of a linked treatment's effect. The design is motivated in part by two phase II trials that are currently in development. The design starts by randomising patients to the control treatment or to experimental treatments that the biomarker profile suggests should be active. At interim analyses, data from treated patients are used to update the allocation probabilities. If the linked treatments are effective, the allocation remains high; if ineffective, the allocation changes over the course of the trial to unlinked treatments that are more effective., Results: Our proposed design has high power to detect treatment effects if the pairings of treatment with biomarker are correct, but also performs well when alternative pairings are true. The design is consistently more powerful than parallel-groups stratified trials., Conclusions: This BAR design is a powerful approach to use when there are pairings of biomarkers with treatments available for testing simultaneously.

Background: Neo-tAnGo, a National Cancer Research Network (NCRN) multicentre randomised neoadjuvant chemotherapy trial in early breast cancer, enroled 831 patients in the United Kingdom. We report a central review of post-chemotherapy histopathology reports on the surgical specimens, to assess the presence and degree of response., Methods: A central independent two-reader review (EP and HME) of histopathology reports from post-treatment surgical specimens was performed. The quality and completeness of pathology reporting across all centres was assessed. The reviews included pathological response to chemotherapy (pathological complete response (pCR); minimal residual disease (MRD); and lesser degrees of response), laterality, the number of axillary metastases and axillary nodes, and the type of surgery. A consensus was reached after discussion., Results: In all, 825 surgical reports from 816 patients were available for review. Out of 4125 data items there were 347 discrepant results (8.4% of classifications), which involved 281 patients. These involved grading of breast response (169 but only 9 involving pCR vs MRD); laterality (6); presence of axillary metastasis (35); lymph node counts (108); and type of axillary surgery (29). Excluding cases with pCR, only 45% of reports included any comment regarding response in the breast and 30% in the axillary lymph nodes., Conclusion: We found considerable variability in the completeness of reporting of surgical specimens within this national neoadjuvant breast cancer trial. This highlights the need for consensus guidelines among trial groups on histopathology reporting, and the participation of histopathologists throughout the development and analysis of neoadjuvant trials.

Background: The National Epirubicin Adjuvant Trial (NEAT) and BR9601 trials tested the benefit of epirubicin when added to cyclophosphamide, methotrexate and 5-fluorouracil (E-CMF) compared with standard CMF in adjuvant chemotherapy for women with early breast cancer. This report details longer follow-up with interesting additional time-dependent analyses., Methods: National Epirubicin Adjuvant Trial used epirubicin (E) 3-weekly for four cycles followed by classical (c) CMF for four cycles (E-CMF) compared with cCMF for six cycles. BR9601 used E 3-weekly for four cycles followed by CMF 3-weekly for four cycles, compared with CMF 3-weekly for eight cycles., Results: In all, 2391 eligible patients were randomised and with a median 7.4-year follow-up, E-CMF confirmed a significant benefit over CMF in both relapse-free survival (RFS) (78% vs 71% 5 years RFS, respectively, hazard ratio (HR)=0.75 (95% CI: 0.65-0.86), P<0.0001) and overall survival (OS) (84% vs 78% 5 years OS, respectively, HR=0.76 (95% CI: 0.65-0.89), P=0.0007). Interaction of treatment effect and prognostic factors was demonstrated for duplication of chromosome 17 centromeric enumeration (Ch17CEP) as previously reported. Poor prognostic factors at diagnosis (ER and PR negative and HER2 positive) showed time-dependent annual hazard rates for RFS and OS. In univariate analysis, these factors demonstrated more favourable HRs for RFS after 5 years. Treatment effects also suggested a differential benefit for E-CMF within the first 5 years for poor prognosis tumours., Conclusion: Longer follow-up has confirmed E-CMF as significantly superior to CMF for all patients. Ch17CEP duplication was the only biomarker that demonstrated significant treatment interaction. Standard poor prognostic factors at diagnosis were time-dependent, and after 5 years disease-free, poor prognosis patients demonstrated favourable HRs for survival.

The NEAT trial reported considerable benefit for ECMF (epirubicin followed by cyclophosphamide, methotrexate and 5-fluorouracil) of 28% for relapse-free survival (RFS) and 30% for overall survival (OS), when compared with classical CMF in early breast cancer. To assess tolerability, toxicity, dose intensity and quality of life (QoL) analyses were undertaken. All 2021 eligible patients had common toxicity criteria (CTC), delivered chemotherapy and supportive treatments details and long-term morbidities recorded. The QoL substudy used multiple validated measures. ECMF produced low CTC scores, although higher than CMF for nausea, vomiting, alopecia, constipation, stomatitis (P<0.001), infection (P=0.001) and fatigue (P=0.03). Supportive treatments required, however, were similar across randomised treatments. On-treatment deaths were more common with CMF (13) than ECMF(5). Optimal course-delivered dose intensity (CDDI > or =85%) was received more often by ECMF patients (83 vs 76%: P=0.0002), and was associated with better RFS (P=0.0006). QoL over 2 years was equivalent across treatments, despite minimally worse side effects for ECMF during treatment. ECMF benefit spanned all levels of toxicity, CDDI and QoL. There are no reported acute myeloid leukaemias or cardiac dysfunctions. ECMF is tolerable, deliverable, and significantly more effective than CMF, with no serious long-term toxicity or QoL detriment.

tAnGo is a large randomised trial assessing the addition of gemcitabine(G) to paclitaxel(T), following epirubicin(E) and cyclophosphamide(C) in women with invasive higher risk early breast cancer. To assess the safety and tolerability of adding G, a detailed safety substudy was undertaken. A total of 135 patients had cardiac, pulmonary and hepatic function assessed at (i) randomisation, (ii) mid-chemotherapy, (iii) immediately post-chemotherapy and (iv) 6 months post-chemotherapy. Skin toxicity was assessed during radiotherapy. No differences were detected in FEV(1) or FVC levels between treatment arms or time points. Diffusion capacity (TL(CO)) reduced during treatment (P<0.0001), with a significantly lower drop in EC-GT patients (P=0.02). Most of the reduction occurred during EC and recovered by 6-months post treatment. There was no difference in cardiac function between treatment arms. Only 11 patients had echocardiography/MUGA results change from normal to abnormal during treatment, with only five having LVEF<50%. Transient transaminitis occurred in both treatment arms with significantly more in EC-GT patients post-chemotherapy (AST P=0.03, ALT P=0.003), although the majority was low grade. There was no correlation between transaminitis and other toxicities. Both treatment regimens reported temporary reductions in pulmonary functions and transient transaminitis levels. Despite these being greater with EC-GT, both regimens appear well tolerated.

Contrast-enhanced (CE) MRI was used to monitor breast cancer response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Patients underwent CE MRI before and after therapy, together with conventional assessment methods (CAM). CE MRI was carried out at 1.5 T in the coronal plain with 3D sequences before and after bolus injection. An expert panel determined chemotherapy response using both CE MRI and CAM. Histopathological response in the surgical specimen was then used to determine the sensitivity and specificity of CE MRI and CAM. In total, 67 patients with 69 breast cancers were studied (mean age of 46 years). Tumour characteristics showed a high-risk tumour population: median size 49 mm: histopathological grade 3 (55%): oestrogen receptor (ER) negative (48%). Histopathological response was as follows: - complete pathological response (pCR) 17%; partial response (pPR) 68%; no response (NR) 15%. Sensitivity of CAM for pCR or pPR was 98% (CI 91-100%) and specificity was 50% (CI 19-81%). CE MRI sensitivity was 100% (CI 94-100%), and specificity was 80% (CI 44-97%). The absolute agreement between assessment methods and histopathology was marginally higher for CE MRI than CAM (81 vs 68%; P=0.09). In 71%, CE MRI increased diagnostic knowledge, although in 20% it was judged confusing or incorrect. The 2nd MRI study significantly increased diagnostic confidence, and in 19% could have changed the treatment plan. CE MRI persistently underestimated minimal residual disease. In conclusion, CE MRI of breast cancer proved more reliable for predicting histopathological response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy than conventional assessment methods.