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Background: To evaluate the associations between pre-diagnostic levels of serum insulin, glucose and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and future risk of incident primary liver cancer (PLC) or chronic liver disease (CLD)-related mortality., Methods: We used a nested case-control design to evaluate subjects over 22 years of follow-up. Glucose, insulin, and three markers of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus were measured in fasting baseline serum from 119 incident PLCs, 157 CLD-death cases and 512 matched controls. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using logistic regression to estimate the associations between insulin, glucose, HOMA-IR and the risk of PLC or CLD death., Results: Compared with the lowest quartile of insulin, multivariable adjusted models showed that subjects in the highest quartile had elevated odds of developing PLC (OR Q4/Q1  = 2.42, 95% CI = 1.26-4.75, P trend  = 0.007), particularly in HBV-positive subjects (P interaction  = 0.040), and of CLD death (OR Q4/Q1  = 1.80, 95% CI = 1.02-3.21, P trend  = 0.018). For glucose, in the HBV-positive group, subjects in the fourth quartile had an increased risk of PLC (OR Q4/Q1  = 2.18, 95% CI = 1.07-4.60, P trend  = 0.009), and of CLD mortality (OR Q4/Q1  = 1.75, 95% CI = 0.95-3.28, P trend  = 0.019). Subjects with the highest HOMA-IR values had a threefold risk of developing PLC (OR Q4/Q1  = 2.94, 95% CI = 1.54-5.87, P trend  = 0.001), and a twofold risk of CLD death (OR Q4/Q1  = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.25-3.94, P trend  = 0.005)., Conclusions: We found that serum insulin and HOMA-IR could potentially be risk factors for PLC or CLD death., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Background: Nut consumption has been inversely associated with gastric cancer incidence in US-based studies, but not with oesophageal cancer. However, there is aetiologic heterogeneity, among oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) cases in low-risk vs. high-risk populations. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between nut consumption and risk of ESCC in a high-risk population., Methods: The Golestan Cohort Study enroled 50,045 participants in Northeastern Iran, between 2004 and 2008. Intake of peanuts, walnuts and mixed nuts (including seeds) were assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire at baseline. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals for subsequent ESCC adjusted for potential confounders. Non-consumers of nuts were used as the reference category and the consumers were categorised into tertiles., Results: We accrued 280 incident ESCC cases during 337,983 person-years of follow up. Individuals in the highest tertiles of total nut consumption, and mixed nut consumption were significantly associated with lower risk of developing ESCC compared to non-consumers (HR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.39-0.93, p-trend = 0.02, and HR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.32-0.84, p trend = 0.002, respectively)., Conclusions: We found a statistically significant inverse association between total nut consumption and the risk of ESCC in this high-risk population.

Background: The absolute risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) among individuals with Barrett's oesophagus (BE) is low and a majority of EA cases are diagnosed among individuals with no prior BE diagnosis. To ensure that insights from EA case-control studies are transferable to clinical management of BE populations, we conducted a case-case study to compare the clinical presentation, medical history and survival of EA cases with and without a prior BE diagnosis in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Medicare database., Methods: Eligible EA cases were diagnosed at age ⩾68 years during 1994-2009. There were 5271 EA cases in this study, 87% of which did not have a prior diagnosis of BE (EA-no prior BE)., Results: Multivariable case-case comparisons evidenced adverse associations of GERD, ever cigarette smoking, hypertension, dyslipidemia, weight loss, peptic ulcer and irritable bowel disease each in EA-prior BE compared with EA-no prior BE. Obesity, metabolic syndrome, impaired fasting glucose and diabetes did not differ between groups. EA-prior BE cases were diagnosed with less advanced disease, were more likely to undergo surgery and less likely to receive chemotherapy and radiotherapy, and had better overall mean survival (2.5 vs 1.4 years). This survival advantage persisted in the multivariable Cox model (HR=0.69, 95%CI: 0.60, 0.78), despite adjustment for many factors including stage, grade and clinical interventions., Conclusions: This study provides evidence that EA cases occurring among individuals previously diagnosed with BE are different from the large majority of EA cases that occur without a prior BE diagnosis. Regardless of whether these differences emanate from aetiology, biology and/or selection biases, they underscore the importance of a prudent approach in using knowledge from EAC case-control studies in the management of BE populations.

Background: Oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is a fatal disease with 5-year survival rates of <5% in Northern Iran. Oesophageal squamous dysplasia (ESD) is the precursor histologic lesion of ESCC. This pilot study was conducted to assess the feasibility, safety, and acceptability of non-endoscopic cytological examination of the oesophagus and to provide initial data on the accuracy of cytological atypia for identifying patients with ESD in this very-high-risk area., Methods: Randomly selected asymptomatic participants of the Golestan Cohort Study were recruited. A cytological specimen was taken using a capsule sponge device and evaluated for atypical cells. Sections of the cytological specimen were also stained for p53 protein. Patient acceptability was assessed using a visual analogue scale. The cytological diagnosis was compared with a chromoendoscopic examination using Lugol's solution., Results: Three hundred and forty-four subjects (43% male, mean (s.d.) age 55.6 (7.9) years) were referred to the study clinic. Three hundred and twelve met eligibility criteria and consented, of which 301 subjects (96.5%) completed both cytological and endoscopic examinations. There were no complications. Most of the participants (279; 92.7%) were satisfied with the examination. The sensitivity and specificity of the cytological examination for identifying subjects with high-grade ESD were 100 and 97%, respectively. We found an accuracy of 100% (95% CI=99-100%) for a combination of cytological examination and p53 staining to detect high-grade ESD., Conclusions: The capsule sponge methodology seems to be a feasible, safe, and acceptable method for diagnosing precancerous lesions of the oesophagus in this population, with promising initial accuracy data for the detection of high-grade ESD.

Background: Nutrients in the one-carbon metabolism pathway may be involved in carcinogenesis. Few cohort studies have investigated the intakes of folate and related nutrients in relation to gastric and esophageal cancer., Methods: We prospectively examined the association between self-reported intakes of folate, methionine, vitamin B6, and vitamin B12 and gastric and esophageal cancer in 492,293 men and women., Results: We observed an elevated risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma with low intake of folate (relative risk (95% confidence interval): Q1 vs Q3, 1.91 (1.17, 3.10)), but no association with high intake. Folate intake was not associated with esophageal adenocarcinoma, gastric cardia adenocarcinoma, or non-cardia gastric adenocarcinoma. The intakes of methionine, vitamin B6, and vitamin B12 were not associated with esophageal and gastric cancer., Conclusion: Low intake of folate was associated with increased risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Background: Although vitamin D deficiency has been noted in cross-sectional studies of chronic liver disease and laboratory studies suggest possible benefits of vitamin D in preventing liver cancer, little epidemiologic data are available., Methods: We performed a nested case-control study in the Linxian Nutrition Intervention Trials on participants developing incident liver cancer or dying from chronic liver disease over 22 years of follow-up. Baseline serum 25(OH) vitamin D was measured for 226 incident liver cancer cases, 282 chronic liver disease deaths and 1063 age-, sex- and trial-matched controls. Unconditional logistical regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs)., Results: The median serum vitamin D level in controls was low (20 nmol l(-1)). Compared with the lowest quartile, subjects in the fourth quartile had lower risk of chronic liver disease death (OR=0.34, 95% CI=0.21-0.55). For liver cancer incidence, risk estimates were below one, but were not statistically significant. Associations, however, were significant among participants with higher serum calcium levels (Q4 vs Q1, OR=0.43, 95% CI=0.21-0.89). Results for chronic liver disease did not vary by serum calcium level., Conclusion: In a low vitamin D population, higher serum 25(OH) vitamin D concentrations were associated with significantly lower risk of chronic liver disease deaths, and among those with higher serum calcium, incident liver cancer. Our results suggest a possible protective role for vitamin D in these diseases.

Background: Several studies have suggested an association between poor oral health and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). We conducted a case-control study in Kashmir, a region with relatively high incidence of ESCC in north India, to investigate the association between oral hygiene and ESCC risk., Methods: We recruited 703 histologically confirmed ESCC cases, and 1664 controls individually matched to the cases for age, sex, and district of residence. Conditional logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs)., Results: We found an inverse association between teeth cleaning and ESCC risk. As compared with never cleaning teeth, the OR (95% CI) was 0.41 (0.28-0.62) for cleaning less than daily and 0.44 (0.25-0.77) for cleaning at least once a day (P for trend=0.026) in models adjusted for multiple potential confounders, including several indicators of socioeconomic status. This association persisted after we limited our analyses to never tobacco users. The inverse association between cleaning teeth and ESCC was stronger with using brushes than with using sticks/fingers. We also found an association between the number of decayed, filled, and missing teeth and ESCC risk, but the trend of the associations was not statistically significant. Avoiding solid food and cold beverages because of teeth and oral problems were also associated with ESCC risk., Conclusion: We found an association between poor oral hygiene indicators and ESCC risk, supporting the previous studies that showed the same associations.

Background: The chromosome 9p21.3 region has been implicated in the pathogenesis of multiple cancers., Methods: We systematically examined up to 203 tagging SNPs of 22 genes on 9p21.3 (19.9-32.8 Mb) in eight case-control studies: thyroid cancer, endometrial cancer (EC), renal cell carcinoma, colorectal cancer (CRC), colorectal adenoma (CA), oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), gastric cardia adenocarcinoma and osteosarcoma (OS). We used logistic regression to perform single SNP analyses for each study separately, adjusting for study-specific covariates. We combined SNP results across studies by fixed-effect meta-analyses and a newly developed subset-based statistical approach (ASSET). Gene-based P-values were obtained by the minP method using the Adaptive Rank Truncated Product program. We adjusted for multiple comparisons by Bonferroni correction., Results: Rs3731239 in cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitors 2A (CDKN2A) was significantly associated with ESCC (P=7 × 10(-6)). The CDKN2A-ESCC association was further supported by gene-based analyses (Pgene=0.0001). In the meta-analyses by ASSET, four SNPs (rs3731239 in CDKN2A, rs615552 and rs573687 in CDKN2B and rs564398 in CDKN2BAS) showed significant associations with ESCC and EC (P<2.46 × 10(-4)). One SNP in MTAP (methylthioadenosine phosphorylase) (rs7023329) that was previously associated with melanoma and nevi in multiple genome-wide association studies was associated with CRC, CA and OS by ASSET (P=0.007)., Conclusion: Our data indicate that genetic variants in CDKN2A, and possibly nearby genes, may be associated with ESCC and several other tumours, further highlighting the importance of 9p21.3 genetic variants in carcinogenesis.

Background: Gastric fundal atrophy has been hypothesised to increase the risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC), but studies have shown inconsistent results., Methods: We measured serum pepsinogen I (PGI) and pepsinogen II (PGII) among 293 incident cases and 524 matched neighbourhood controls in a high-risk area of Northern Iran. Conditional logistic regression model was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs)., Results: After controlling for age, sex, residence area and other potential confounders, gastric atrophy (defined by a validated criterion, PGI <55 μg dl(-1)) was associated with a two-fold increased risk (OR=2.01, 95% CI: 1.18, 3.45) of OSCC in the absence of nonatrophic pangastritis (defined as PGII <11.8 μg dl(-1)). Stratification by PGII decreased the misclassification errors due to cancer-induced gastritis. Presence of both poor dental health, indicated by higher than median sum of decayed, missing, and filled teeth (DMFT score), and gastric atrophy further increased the risk of OSCC (OR=4.15, 95% CI: 2.04, 8.42) with relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) of 1.47 (95% CI: -1.15, 4.1). Coexistence of poor oral hygiene habit with gastric atrophy elevated OSCC risk eight times (OR=8.65, 95% CI: 3.65, 20.46) and the additive interaction index was marginally statistically significant (RERI=4.34, 95% CI: -1.07, 9.76)., Conclusion: Gastric atrophy is a risk factor for OSCC, and poor dental health and oral hygiene habit may act synergistically in increasing the risk.

Background: Circulating pepsinogens can indicate atrophic gastritis, a precursor of gastric cancer. We tested the association between gastric cancer and plasma pepsinogens and antibodies against Helicobacter pylori in a case-control study nested in a prospective cohort., Methods: We selected 141 gastric cancer cases and 282 incidence-density sampled controls. Plasma concentrations of pepsinogens 1 and 2 were measured using ELISA kits, and anti-H. pylori antibodies were measured using a kit specific to Chinese strains. Associations were estimated using conditional logistic regression models adjusted for potential confounders., Results: Gastric cancer subjects were more likely to be anti-H. pylori positive than controls, 97 vs 92%. A plasma pepsinogen 1 (PG1) concentration <50 ng ml(-1) (15% of cases) was associated with a significantly increased risk of gastric cancer (OR 4.23; (95% CI: 1.86-9.63), whereas a plasma pepsinogen 2 (PG2) concentration >6.6 ng ml(-1) (75% of cases) was also associated with a significantly increased risk of gastric cancer (OR 3.62; (95% CI: 1.85-7.09). We also found that the PG1 : 2 ratio had a nearly linear association with gastric cancer risk., Conclusion: Lower plasma PG1 : 2 ratios are associated with a higher risk of gastric cancer. Furthermore, it appears that circulating pepsinogens 1 and 2 may be independently associated with the risk of gastric cancer.

Use of aspirin or other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) may reduce the risk of gastric or oesophageal adenocarcinomas. We examined the association between self-reported use of aspirin or non-aspirin NSAIDs in the earlier 12 months and gastric non-cardia (N=182), gastric cardia (N=178), and oesophageal adenocarcinomas (N=228) in a prospective cohort (N=311 115) followed for 7 years. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) come from Cox models adjusted for potential confounders. Use of any aspirin (HR, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.47-0.86) or other NSAIDs (0.68, 0.51-0.92) was associated with a significantly lower risk of gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma. Neither aspirin (0.86, 0.61-1.20) nor other NSAIDs (0.91, 0.67-1.22) had a significant association with gastric cardia cancer. We found no significant association between using aspirin (1.00, 0.73-1.37) or other NSAIDs (0.90, 69-1.17) and oesophageal adenocarcinoma. We also performed a meta-analysis of the association between the use of NSAIDs and risk of gastric and oesophageal adenocarcinoma. In this analysis, aspirin use was inversely associated with both gastric and oesophageal adenocarcinomas, with summary odds ratios (95% CI) for non-cardia, cardia, and oesophageal adenocarcinomas of 0.64 (0.52-0.80), 0.82 (0.65-1.04), and 0.64 (0.52-0.79), respectively. The corresponding numbers for other NSAIDs were 0.68 (0.57-0.81), 0.80 (0.67-0.95), and 0.65 (0.50-0.85), respectively.

The very high incidence of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in Golestan Province in northeastern Iran was suggested by studies in the 1970s as partly due to opium use, which is not uncommon in this area, but based on limited numbers. From December 2003 to June 2007, we administered a validated structured questionnaire to 300 ESCC cases and 571 controls, matched on neighbourhood of residence, age (+/-2 years), and sex. We used conditional logistic regression models to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) adjusted for potential confounders. Compared with those who used neither tobacco nor opium, risk of ESCC was increased in those who used tobacco only (OR, 95% CI: 1.70, 1.05-2.73), in those who used opium only (2.12, 1.21-3.74), and in those who used both tobacco and opium (2.35, 1.50-3.67). All forms of tobacco use (cigarettes, hookah, and nass) were associated with higher ESCC risk. Similarly, use of both crude opium and other forms of opium were associated with higher risk. Alcohol consumption was seen in only 2% of the cases and 2% of the controls, and was not associated with ESCC risk.

Among 185 cases of gastric cancer and 200 controls in Linxian, China, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) seropositivity was not associated with increased risk of gastric cancer. High EBV nuclear antigen titres were associated with longer survival in cardia cancer cases, possibly due to chance.

We prospectively examined the relation between pretrial serum vitamin D status and risk of oesophageal and gastric cancers among subjects who developed cancer over 5.25 years of follow-up, including 545 oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas (ESCC), 353 gastric cardia adenocarcinomas, 81 gastric noncardia adenocarcinomas, and an age- and sex-stratified random sample of 1105 subjects. The distribution of serum 25(OH)D was calculated using the known sampling weights. For the cohort as a whole, the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile concentrations of 25(OH)-vitamin D were 19.6, 31.9, and 48.7 nmol l(-1), respectively, and we found that higher serum 25(OH)D concentrations were associated with monotonically increasing risk of ESCC in men, but not in women. Comparing men in the fourth quartile of serum 25(OH)D concentrations to those in the first, we found a hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval (CI)) of 1.77 (1.16-2.70), P trend=0.0033. The same comparison in women had a HR (95% CI) of 1.06 (0.71-1.59), P trend=0.70. We found no associations for gastric cardia or noncardia adenocarcinoma. Among subjects with low vitamin D status, higher serum 25(OH)D concentrations were associated with significantly increased risk of ESCC in men, but not in women. Further refinements of the analysis did not suggest any factors, which could explain this unexpected result.

We investigated the relation between head and neck cancer risk and alcohol consumption in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study. During 2,203,500 person-years of follow-up, 611 men and 183 women developed head and neck cancer. With moderate drinking (up to one alcoholic drink per day) as the referent group, non-drinkers showed an increased risk of head and neck cancer (men: hazard ratio (HR) 1.68, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.37-2.06; women: 1.46, 1.02-2.08). Among male and female alcohol drinkers, we observed a significant dose-response relationship between alcohol consumption and risk. The HR for consuming >3 drinks per day was significantly higher in women (2.52, 1.46-4.35) than in men (1.48, 1.15-1.90; P for interaction=0.0036). The incidence rates per 100 000 person-years for those who consumed >3 drinks per day were similar in men (77.6) and women (75.3). The higher HRs observed in women resulted from lower incidence rates in the referent group: women (14.7), men (34.4). In summary, drinking >3 alcoholic beverages per day was associated with increased risk in men and women, but consumption of up to one drink per day may be associated with reduced risk relative to non-drinking.

In a cohort of 29,584 residents of Linxian, China, followed from 1985 to 2001, we conducted a case-cohort study of the magnitude of the association of Helicobacter pylori seropositivity with cancer risk in a random sample of 300 oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas, 600 gastric cardia adenocarcinomas, all 363 diagnosed gastric non-cardia adenocarcinomas, and a random sample of the entire cohort (N=1050). Baseline serum was evaluated for IgG antibodies to whole-cell and CagA H. pylori antigens by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Risks of both gastric cardia and non-cardia cancers were increased in individuals exposed to H. pylori (Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals=1.64; 1.26-2.14, and 1.60; 1.15-2.21, respectively), whereas risk of oesophageal squamous cell cancer was not affected (1.17; 0.88-1.57). For both cardia and non-cardia cancers, HRs were higher in younger individuals. With longer time between serum collection to cancer diagnosis, associations became stronger for cardia cancers but weaker for non-cardia cancers. CagA positivity did not modify these associations. The associations between H. pylori exposure and gastric cardia and non-cardia adenocarcinoma development were equally strong, in contrast to Western countries, perhaps due to the absence of Barrett's oesophagus and oesophageal adenocarcinomas in Linxian, making all cardia tumours of gastric origin, rather than a mixture of gastric and oesophageal malignancies.

To investigate the incidence of oesophageal cancer (EC) in the Golestan province of North-East Iran, we invited 1349 rural and urban inhabitants of Golestan province aged 35-80 to undergo extensive lifestyle interviews and to provide biological samples. The interview was repeated on a subset of 130 participants to assess reliability of questionnaire and medical information. Temperature at which tea was consumed was measured on two occasions by 110 subjects. Samples of rice, wheat and sorghum were tested for fumonisin contamination. An active follow-up was carried out after 6 and 12 months. A total of 1057 subjects (610 women and 447 men) participated in this feasibility study (78.4% participation rate). Cigarette smoking, opium and alcohol use were reported by 163 (13.8%), 93 (8.8%) and 39 (3.7%) subjects, respectively. Tobacco smoking was correlated with urinary cotinine (kappa = 0.74). Most questionnaire data had kappa > 0.7 in repeat measurements; tea temperature measurement was reliable (kappa = 0.71). No fumonisins were detected in the samples analysed. During the follow-up six subjects were lost (0.6%), two subjects developed EC (one dead, one alive); in all, 13 subjects died (with cause of death known for 11, 84.6%). Conducting a cohort study in Golestan is feasible with reliable information obtained for suspected risk factors; participants can be followed up for EC incidence and mortality.

Previous studies have shown that oesophageal and gastric cancers are the most common causes of cancer death in the Golestan Province, Iran. In 2001, we established Atrak Clinic, a referral clinic for gastrointestinal (GI) diseases in Gonbad, the major city of eastern Golestan, which has permitted, for the first time in this region, endoscopic localisation and histologic examination of upper GI cancers. Among the initial 682 patients seen at Atrak Clinic, 370 were confirmed histologically to have cancer, including 223 (60%) oesophageal squamous cell cancers (ESCC), 22 (6%) oesophageal adenocarcinomas (EAC), 58 (16%) gastric cardia adenocarcinomas (GCA), and 58 (16%) gastric noncardia adenocarcinomas. The proportional occurrence of these four main site-cell type subdivisions of upper GI cancers in Golestan is similar to that seen in Linxian, China, another area of high ESCC incidence, and is markedly different from the current proportions in many Western countries. Questioning of patients about exposure to some known and suspected risk factors for squamous cell oesophageal cancer confirmed a negligible history of consumption of alcohol, little use of cigarettes or nass (tobacco, lime and ash), and a low intake of opium, suggesting that the high rates of ESCC seen in northeastern Iran must have other important risk factors that remain speculative or unknown. Further studies are needed to define more precisely the patterns of upper GI cancer incidence, to test other previously suspected risk factors, and to find new significant risk factors in this high-risk area.