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Background: Cirrhosis comprises a significant health challenge in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region impacting healthcare systems and communities. This study sought to investigate trends in the burden of cirrhosis and other chronic liver disease, different etiologies, deaths, and the disability burden utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. Methods: Analyzing epidemiological trends from 1990 to 2021 across 21 MENA countries, this research utilized data on age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized death rates, and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to evaluate the burden of cirrhosis and other chronic liver disease. The study also examined national variations and sociodemographic relationships. Results: The study identified a 114.9% increase in cirrhosis and other chronic liver disease incidence within the MENA region between 1990 and 2021, with 7,344,030 incident cases reported in 2021. The ASIR showed a steeper rise in females (9.6%) compared to males (7.0%). Etiology-specific analysis revealed an increase in the ASIR for MASLD related cirrhosis and other chronic liver disease by 22.2%, while those due to alcohol as well as hepatitis B and C decreased by 28.1%, 59.3%, and 30%, respectively. Despite the rising incidence, overall age-standardized death rates across all etiologies decreased by 54.3%, with DALYs showing a 51.4% decrease during the same period. Country-specific trends varied significantly, with Oman recording the highest annual ASIR increase (0.64%), and Qatar observing the most substantial annual reduction in age-standardized death rates (-2.88%). Conclusion: The study highlights evolving trends in cirrhosis and other chronic liver disease within the MENA region, emphasizing the necessity for comprehensive, etiology, and gender-specific interventions. Despite an increasing incidence, the observed improvements in mortality rates and age-standardized disability burden indicate progress in public health efforts to mitigate cirrhosis's impact. These findings point to the complex nature of cirrhosis outcomes and the urgent need for tailored strategies to manage its increasing burden effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The built environment, as a critical factor influencing residents' cardiovascular health, has a significant potential impact on the incidence of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Methods: Taking Xixiangtang District in Nanning City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of China as a case study, we utilized the geographic location information of CVD patients, detailed road network data, and urban points of interest (POI) data. Kernel density estimation (KDE) and spatial autocorrelation analysis were specifically employed to identify the spatial distribution patterns, spatial clustering, and spatial correlations of built environment elements and diseases. The GeoDetector method (GDM) was used to assess the impact of environmental factors on diseases, and geographically weighted regression (GWR) analysis was adopted to reveal the spatial heterogeneity effect of environmental factors on CVD risk. Results: The results indicate that the built environment elements and CVDs samples exhibit significant clustering characteristics in their spatial distribution, with a positive correlation between the distribution density of environmental elements and the incidence of CVDs (Moran's I > 0, p < 0.01). Further factor detection revealed that the distribution of healthcare facilities had the most significant impact on CVDs (q = 0.532, p < 0.01), followed by shopping and consumption (q = 0.493, p < 0.01), dining (q = 0.433, p < 0.01), and transportation facilities (q = 0.423, p < 0.01), while the impact of parks and squares (q = 0.174, p < 0.01) and road networks (q = 0.159, p < 0.01) was relatively smaller. Additionally, the interaction between different built environment elements exhibited a bi-factor enhancement effect on CVDs. In the local analysis, the spatial heterogeneity of different built environment elements on CVDs further revealed the regional differences and complexities. Conclusions: The spatial distribution of built environment elements is significantly correlated with CVDs to varying degrees and impacts differently across regions, underscoring the importance of the built environment on cardiovascular health. When planning and improving urban environments, elements and areas that have a more significant impact on CVDs should be given priority consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: With the conflict between the promise of ageing in health and longevity and the limited availability of health resources and social support, older adults in China inevitably experience anxieties surrounding health risks. This study aims to investigate how older adults perceive the health risks that come with getting older, explore the degree to which health risks affect older adults, and advocate for active engagement in practices for managing health risks. Methods: Using purposive sampling, three districts of Beijing (Xicheng District, Fengtai District, and Daxing District, respectively) were selected for the research. Qualitative semi-structured and in-depth interviews were conducted with 70 community-dwelling older adults who participated in the study. Data were extracted and analyzed based on a thematic framework approach. Results: Three main themes were identified: (i) the anxieties of older adults concerning health risks in ageing; (ii) the priorities of older adults for health risk management in ageing; (iii) the expectations of older adults for health risk management in ageing. The primary health concerns among older adults included disease incidence and function decline. It was found that basic health management emerged as a critical need for older adults to mitigate health risks. Moreover, it was observed that healthcare support for older adults from familial, institutional, and governmental levels exhibited varying degrees of inadequacy. Conclusions: The primary source of anxieties among older adults regarding health risks predominantly stems from a perceived sense of health deprivation. It is often compounded by persistent barriers to primary care of priorities in managing health risks among older adults. In addition, the expectations of older adults for health risk management emphasize the necessity for integrated care approaches. Therefore, further research should give priority to the prevention and management of health risks, aim to reduce anxieties, provide integrated care to meet the primary needs and expectations of older adults, and ultimately strive toward the overarching goal of promoting health and longevity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Understanding the temporal and geographic distribution of disease incidences is crucial for effective public health planning and intervention strategies. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of disease incidences in Ethiopia, focusing on six major diseases: Malaria, Meningitis, Cholera and Dysentery, over the period from 2010 to 2022, whereas Dengue Fever and Leishmaniasis from 2018 to 2023. Methods Using data from Ethiopian public health institute: public health emergency management (PHEM), and Ministry of Health, we examined the occurrence and spread of each disease across different regions of Ethiopia. Spatial mapping and time series analysis were employed to identify hotspots, trends, and seasonal variations in disease incidence. Results The findings reveal distinct patterns for each disease, with varying cases and temporal dynamics. Monthly wise, Malaria exhibits a cyclical pattern with a peak during the rainy and humid season, while Dysentery, Meningitis and Cholera displays intermittent incidences. Dysentery cases show a consistent presence throughout the years, while Meningitis remains relatively low in frequency but poses a potential threat due to its severity. Dengue fever predominantly occurs in the eastern parts of Ethiopia. A significant surge in reported incident cases occurred during the years 2010 to 2013, primarily concentrated in the Amhara, Sidama, Oromia, Dire Dawa, and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. Conclusions This study helps to a better understanding of disease epidemiology in Ethiopia and can serve as a foundation for evidence-based decision-making in disease prevention and control. By recognizing the patterns and seasonal changes associated with each disease, health authorities can implement proactive measures to mitigate the impact of outbreaks and safeguard public health in the region.

effective public health planning and intervention strategies. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of disease incidences in Ethiopia, focusing on six major diseases: Malaria, Meningitis, Cholera and Dysentery, over the period from 2010 to 2022, whereas Dengue Fever and Leishmaniasis from 2018 to 2023. Methods Using data from Ethiopian public health institute: public health emergency management (PHEM), and Ministry of Health, we examined the occurrence and spread of each disease across different regions of Ethiopia. Spatial mapping and time series analysis were employed to identify hotspots, trends, and seasonal variations in disease incidence. Results The findings reveal distinct patterns for each disease, with varying cases and temporal dynamics. Monthly wise, Malaria exhibits a cyclical pattern with a peak during the rainy and humid season, while Dysentery, Meningitis and Cholera displays intermittent incidences. Dysentery cases show a consistent presence throughout the years, while Meningitis remains relatively low in frequency but poses a potential threat due to its severity. Dengue fever predominantly occurs in the eastern parts of Ethiopia. A significant surge in reported incident cases occurred during the years 2010 to 2013, primarily concentrated in the Amhara, Sidama, Oromia, Dire Dawa, and Benishangul-Gumuz regionsConclusions This study helps to a better understanding of disease epidemiology in Ethiopia and can serve as a foundation for evidence-based decision-making in disease prevention and control. By recognizing the patterns and seasonal changes associated with each disease, health authorities can implement proactive measures to mitigate the impact of outbreaks and safeguard public health in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Several studies have suggested a significant association of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) with ambient air pollutants. Existing studies have characterized the role of air pollutants on HFMD using only risk ratio measures while ignoring the attributable burden. And whether the geographical context (i.e., diverse topographic features) could modulate the relationships is unclear. Methods: Daily reported childhood HFMD counts, ambient air pollution, and meteorological data during 2015–2017 were collected for each of 21 cities in Sichuan Province. A multistage analysis was carried out in different populations based on geographical context to assess effect modification by topographic conditions. We first constructed a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) for each city to describe the relationships with risk ratio measures. Then, we applied a multivariate meta-regression to estimate the pooled effects of multiple air pollutants on HFMD from the exposure and lagged dimensions. Finally, attributable risks measures were calculated to quantify HFMD burden by air pollution. Results: Based on 207554 HFMD cases in Sichuan Province, significant associations of HFMD with ambient air pollutants were observed mainly at relatively high exposure ranges. The effects of ambient air pollutants on HFMD are most pronounced on lag0 or around lag7, with relative risks gradually approaching the reference line thereafter. The attributable risks of O3 were much greater than those of other air pollutants, particularly in basin and mountain regions. Conclusions: This study revealed significant pooled relationships between multiple air pollutants and HFMD incidence from both exposure and lag dimensions. However, the specific effects, including RRs and ARs, differ depending on the air pollution variable and geographical context. These findings provide local authorities with more evidence to determine key air pollutants and regions for devising and implementing targeted interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cholelithiasis is a common digestive system disease that imposes major burden on patients and society. Investigating the relationship between dietary factors and cholelithiasis risk can provide a basis for disease prevention. Previous studies on milk intake and cholelithiasis incidence have been limited.Therefore, the aim of our study was to assess the association between milk consumption and the incidence of cholelithiasis in males and females. Methods: We selected 14,722 adults (≥ 18 years old) from National Center for Health Statistics (NHANSE) 2017–2020, and collected general characteristics of patients in the database, such as age, gender, race and body mass index (BMI), as well as dietary information (milk consumption). The occurrence of cholelithiasis was used as the outcome event, and the group was divided into cholelithiasis and non-cholelithiasis groups according to the outcome event. We used logistic regression models in generalized linear model (GLM) functions, controlling for demographic, lifestyle, and dietary factors, to estimate the association between milk intake and the incidence of cholelithiasis in males and females. Results: A total of 14,722 adults were included. In the present study, the overall weighted prevalence of cholelithiasis was 10.96%, with 15.18% and 6.48% prevalence in females and males, respectively. Compared to infrequent milk intake, frequent milk intake (once a week or more) in females was associated with reduced cholelithiasis risk (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.61–0.90). Daily milk intake in males was also related to lower cholelithiasis risk (OR 0.69–0.82). As adjusted variables increased in the models, predictive performance was improved (AUC 0.711 in females, 0.730 in males). Conclusions: Appropriate milk intake may correlate with decreased cholelithiasis risk. Our study provides a basis for dietary interventions against gallstones, but prospective studies are needed to verify the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever are one of the most criticial public health issues worldwide, especially in developing countries. The incidence of this disease may be closely related to socio-economic factors, but there is a lack of research on the spatial level of relevant determinants of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever. Methods: In this study, we took Hunan Province in central China as an example and collected the data on typhoid and paratyphoid incidence and socio-economic factors in 2015–2019. Firstly spatial mapping was made on the disease prevalence, and again using geographical probe model to explore the critical influencing factors of typhoid and paratyphoid, finally employing MGWR model to analysis the spatial heterogeneity of these factors. Results: The results showed that the incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever was seasonal and periodic and frequently occurred in summer. In the case of total typhoid and paratyphoid fever, Yongzhou was the most popular, followed by Xiangxi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture, Huaihua and Chenzhou generally focused on the south and west. And Yueyang, Changde and Loudi had a slight increase trend year by year from 2015 to 2019. Moreover, the significant effects on the incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever from strong to weak were as follows: gender ratio(q = 0.4589), students in ordinary institutions of higher learning(q = 0.2040), per capita disposable income of all residents(q = 0.1777), number of foreign tourists received(q = 0.1697), per capita GDP(q = 0.1589), and the P values for these factors were less than 0.001. According to the MGWR model, gender ratio, per capita disposable income of all residents and Number of foreign tourists received had a positive effect on the incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever. In contrast, students in ordinary institutions of higher learning had a negative impact, and per capita GDP shows a bipolar change. Conclusions: The incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in Hunan Province from 2015 to 2019 was a marked seasonality, concentrated in the south and west of Hunan Province. Attention should be paid to the prevention and control of critical periods and concentrated areas. Different socio-economic factors may show other directions and degrees of action in other prefecture-level cities. To summarize, health education, entry-exit epidemic prevention and control can be strengthened. This study may be beneficial to carry out targeted, hierarchical and focused prevention and control of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever, and provide scientific reference for related theoretical research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chronic diseases are the leading cause of death worldwide. Many of these diseases have modifiable risk factors, including physical activity and sleep, and may be preventable. This study investigated independent associations of physical activity and sleep with eight common chronic illnesses.Methods: Data were from waves 1, 3 and 5 of The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (n = 5,680). Inverse probability weighted general estimating equations were used to examine longitudinal lifetime prevalence and cumulative incidence of self-reported conditions.Results: Sleep problems were significantly associated with increased odds of incident and prevalent arthritis and angina. Additionally sleep problems were associated with higher odds of lifetime prevalence of hypertension and diabetes. Physical activity was negatively associated incident osteoporosis and respiratory diseases and negatively associated with lifetime prevalence of hypertension, high cholesterol and diabetes.Conclusions: Worse sleep quality and lower physical activity were associated with higher odds of chronic diseases. Interventions to improve sleep and physical activity may improve health outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) is a major cause of pediatric morbidity and mortality. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) were introduced in the US in 2000 (PCV7) and 2010 (PCV13). This study estimated the annual incidence rates (IRs) and time trends of IPD to quantify the burden of disease in children before and after the introduction of PCV7 and PCV13 in the US.Methods: IPD episodes were identified in the IBM MarketScan Commercial and Medicaid Databases using claims with International Classification of Diseases 9/10th Revision, Clinical Modification codes. Annual IRs were calculated as the number of IPD episodes/100,000 person-years (PYs) for children < 18 years and by age group (< 2, 2-4, and 5-17 years). National estimates of annual IPD IRs were extrapolated using Census Bureau data. Interrupted time series (ITS) analyses were conducted to assess immediate and gradual changes in IPD IRs before and after introduction of PCV7 and PCV13.Results: In commercially insured children, IPD IRs decreased from 9.4 to 2.8 episodes/100,000 PY between the pre-PCV7 (1998-1999) and late PCV13 period (2014-2018) overall, and from 65.6 to 11.6 episodes/100,000 PY in children < 2 years. In the Medicaid population, IPD IRs decreased from 11.3 to 4.2 episodes/100,000 PY between the early PCV7 (2001-2005) and late PCV13 period overall, and from 42.6 to 12.8 episodes/100,000 PY in children < 2 years. The trends of IRs for meningitis, bacteremia, and bacteremic pneumonia followed the patterns of overall IPD episodes. The ITS analyses indicated significant decreases in the early PCV7 period, increases in the late PCV7 and decreases in the early PCV13 period in commercially insured children overall. However, increases were also observed in the late PCV13 period in children < 2 years. The percentage of cases with underlying risk factors increased in both populations.Conclusions: IRs of IPD decreased from 1998 to 2018, following introduction of PCV7 and PCV13, with larger declines during the early PCV7 and early PCV13 periods, and among younger children. However, the residual burden of IPD remains substantial. The impact of future PCVs on IPD IRs will depend on the proportion of vaccine-type serotypes and vaccine effectiveness in children with underlying conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Zambia has invested in several healthcare financing reforms aimed at achieving universal access to health services. Several evaluations have investigated the effects of these reforms on the utilization of health services. However, only one study has assessed the distributional incidence of health spending across different socioeconomic groups, but without differentiating between public and overall health spending and between curative and maternal health services. Our study aims to fill this gap by undertaking a quasi-longitudinal benefit incidence analysis of public and overall health spending between 2006 and 2014.Methods: We conducted a Benefit Incidence Analysis (BIA) to measure the socioeconomic inequality of public and overall health spending on curative services and institutional delivery across different health facility typologies at three time points. We combined data from household surveys and National Health Accounts.Results: Results showed that public (concentration index of - 0.003; SE 0.027 in 2006 and - 0.207; SE 0.011 in 2014) and overall (0.050; SE 0.033 in 2006 and - 0.169; SE 0.011 in 2014) health spending on curative services tended to benefit the poorer segments of the population while public (0.241; SE 0.018 in 2007 and 0.120; SE 0.007 in 2014) and overall health spending (0.051; SE 0.022 in 2007 and 0.116; SE 0.007 in 2014) on institutional delivery tended to benefit the least-poor. Higher inequalities were observed at higher care levels for both curative and institutional delivery services.Conclusion: Our findings suggest that the implementation of UHC policies in Zambia led to a reduction in socioeconomic inequality in health spending, particularly at health centres and for curative care. Further action is needed to address existing barriers for the poor to benefit from health spending on curative services and at higher levels of care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A stronger spatial clustering of cancer burden indicates stronger environmental and human behavioral effects. However, which common cancers in China have stronger spatial clustering and knowledge gaps regarding the environmental and human behavioral effects have yet to be investigated. This study aimed to compare the spatial clustering degree and hotspot patterns of 11 common cancers in mainland China and discuss the potential environmental and behavioral risks underlying the patterns.Methods: Cancer incidence data recorded at 339 registries in 2014 was obtained from the "China Cancer Registry Annual Report 2017". We calculated the spatial clustering degree of the common cancers using the global Moran's Index and identified the hotspot patterns using the hotspot analysis.Results: We found that esophagus, stomach and liver cancer have a significantly higher spatial clustering degree ([Formula: see text]) than others. When by sex, female esophagus, male stomach, male esophagus, male liver and female lung cancer had significantly higher spatial clustering degree ([Formula: see text]). The spatial clustering degree of male liver was significantly higher than that of female liver cancer ([Formula: see text]), whereas the spatial clustering degree of female lung was significantly higher than that of male lung cancer ([Formula: see text]). The high-risk areas of esophagus and stomach cancer were mainly in North China, Huai River Basin, Yangtze River Delta and Shaanxi Province. The hotspots for liver and male liver cancer were mainly in Southeast China and south Hunan. Hotspots of female lung cancer were mainly located in the Pearl River Delta, Shandong, North and Northeast China. The Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta were high-risk areas for multiple cancers.Conclusions: The top highly clustered cancer types in mainland China included esophagus, stomach and liver cancer and, by sex, female esophagus, male stomach, male esophagus, male liver and female lung cancer. Among them, knowledge of their spatial patterns and environmental and behavioral risk factors is generally limited. Potential factors such as unhealthy diets, water pollution and climate factors have been suggested, and further investigation and validation are urgently needed, particularly for male liver cancer. This study identified the knowledge gap in understanding the spatial pattern of cancer burdens in China and offered insights into targeted cancer monitoring and control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To compare an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with a model that combines ARIMA with the Elman recurrent neural network (ARIMA-ERNN) in predicting the incidence of pertussis in mainland China.Background: The incidence of pertussis has increased rapidly in mainland China since 2016, making the disease an increasing public health threat. There is a pressing need for models capable of accurately predicting the incidence of pertussis in order to guide prevention and control measures. We developed and compared two models for predicting pertussis incidence in mainland China.Methods: Data on the incidence of pertussis in mainland China from 2004 to 2019 were obtained from the official website of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. An ARIMA model was established using SAS (ver. 9.4) software and an ARIMA-ERNN model was established using MATLAB (ver. R2019a) software. The performances of these models were compared.Results: From 2004 to 2019, there were 104,837 reported cases of pertussis in mainland China, with an increasing incidence over time. The incidence of pertussis showed obvious seasonal characteristics, with the peak lasting from March to September every year. Compared with the mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the ARIMA model, those of the ARIMA-ERNN model were 81.43%, 95.97% and 80.86% lower, respectively, in fitting performance. In terms of prediction performance, the MAE, MSE and MAPE were 37.75%, 56.88% and 43.75% lower, respectively.Conclusion: The fitting and prediction performances of the ARIMA-ERNN model were better than those of the ARIMA model. This provides theoretical support for the prediction of infectious diseases and should be beneficial to public health decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pneumoconiosis refers to a class of serious diseases threatening the health of workers exposed to coal or silicosis dust. However, the burden of pneumoconiosis is unavailable in China.Methods: Incident cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from pneumoconiosis and its subtypes in China were estimated from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 using a Bayesian meta-regression method. The trend of the burden from pneumoconiosis was analyzed using percentage change and annualized rate of change (ARC) during the period 1990-2019. The relationship between subnational socio-demographic index (SDI) and the ARC of age-standardised death rate was measured using Spearman's Rank-Order Correlation.Results: In 2019, there were 136.8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 113.7-162.5) thousand new cases, 10.2 (8.1-13.6) thousand deaths, and 608.7 (473.6-779.4) thousand DALYs from pneumoconiosis in China. Of the global burdens from pneumoconiosis, more than 60% were in China. Both the total number of new cases and DALYs from pneumoconiosis was keeping increasing from 1990 to 2019. In contrast, the age-standardised incidence, death, and DALY rates from pneumoconiosis and its subtypes, except for the age-standardised incidence rate of silicosis, and age-standardised death rate of asbestosis, experienced a significant decline during the same period. The subnational age-standardised death rates were higher in western China than in eastern China. Meanwhile, the subnational ARC of age-standardised death rates due to pneumoconiosis and its subtypes were significantly negatively correlated with SDI in 2019.Conclusion: China suffers the largest health loss from pneumoconiosis in the world. Reducing the burden of pneumoconiosis is still an urgent task in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Female soldiers comprise an important component of any modern army, yet little research has been performed to investigate differences in the profiles of injuries reported by qualified female and male army personnel.Aim: The aim of this study was to compare injury rates and patterns between female and male soldiers of the Australian Regular Army (ARA).Methods: Data pertaining to all injuries reported by ARA members over a two-year period were accessed from the SENTINEL database and analysed descriptively. Findings regarding injury patterns were reported by most common location, nature, mechanism, and activity being performed at the time of injury. Injury incidence rates (IR) were calculated based on population size, and injury incidence rate ratios (IRR) comparing female and male injury rates were determined.Results: A total of 8750 injuries were recorded across the two-year time period (2018-2020) of the study (minor injuries: n = 1766 female, n = 6870 male; serious injuries: n = 19 female, n = 95 male). Higher incidence rates of minor injuries were reported for female soldiers (IR = 20.75 injuries/100 soldiers/year) when compared to male soldiers (IR = 13.60 injuries/100 soldiers/year), with an IRR of 1.53 [95% CI = 1.46-1.60]. More serious injuries were reported at a similar rate between female (IR = 0.22/100 soldiers/year) and male soldiers (IR = 0.21/100 soldiers/year), with an IRR of 1.05 [95% CI = 0.65-1.72]. Female soldiers tended to report more ankle injuries than male soldiers who reported more knee injuries. Physical training and combat training were the most common causes of injury for both sexes.Discussion: There were subtle differences in body locations of minor injuries within female and male soldiers. Both minor and more serious injury profiles were otherwise similar between sexes. Therefore, strategies required to minimise injuries in female soldiers may be similar in many respects to strategies required for male soldiers but require some differences to account for the subtle differences in body locations of injury, and so to ensure effectiveness across all personnel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Liver cancer (LC) is considered as one of the most dominant malignant tumors which ranked 4th and in terms of global mortality and incidence, respectively. This work aimed to investigate the global temporal trends in LC mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) and its components, with a particular focus on examining long-term effect of human development index (HDI) on these metrics in a 30-year follow-up.Methods: The age-standardized LC incidence and mortality data were derived from the global burden of disease (GBD) study 2019. We first leveraged joinpoint piecewise linear regression analysis to ascertain time trends in LC incidence, mortality, and MIR complement [1-MIR] and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the rates over the period 1990-2019. Then, the association between the metrics and HDI was explored through longitudinal multilevel models (LMMs).Results: The incidence rates paralleled the mortality rates worldwide and they had similar significant monotonic decrementing trends with AAPC values of - 1.10% (95% confidence interval (CI): - 1.40, - 0.90%) and - 1.40% (- 1.50, - 1.30%), respectively from 1990 to 2019. The [1-MIR] rates were around 0 and showed an increasing pattern from 1.70 to 8.10 per 100,000 people (AAPC, 4.90%) at the same period of time. Results from the LMMs displayed that the majority of the variation lies at the country level accounted for about 88% of the total variance. Moreover, our analysis supported that the HDI was negatively associated with either incidence or mortality over time (p < 0.05).Conclusions: Our findings highlighted that the global long-term temporal trends of LC incidence and mortality decreased slightly during 1990-2019 which may reflect improved therapeutic strategies and public health interventions. Besides, the low rates of [1-MIR] revealed the five-year relative survival rate was poor implying LC is diagnosed late in its development. Thereby, the policymakers' focus must be on early screening and detection of liver cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) causes high fatality in untreated patients alongside long-term sequelae in 20% survivors. For a comprehensive assessment of epidemiology, an analysis of these sequelae is required. This study aims to investigate the epidemiology of disease between 2008 and 2017 including a description of the sequelae, through the analysis of data collected from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked with data from the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES), and Office for National Statistics (ONS) mortality registry data.Methods: This was a 10-year retrospective observational cohort study designed to describe the incidence, case-fatality rate (CFR) and occurrence of sequelae due to meningococcal disease, in the UK between 2007 and 2017 using data from the UK CPRD-HES-ONS. Cases were identified and matched on age, gender, date of diagnosis of IMD and followed-up-time with a control group without IMD. Demographics, clinical characteristics, mortality, and IMD-related sequelae were examined for IMD cases and compared with matched controls for a more comprehensive assessment.Results: The study analysed 640 IMD patients with majority of the cases diagnosed (76.9%) in a hospital setting. Age-group analysis showed a decrease in the incidence rate of IMD in patients aged <1 year (30.4 - 7.5%) and an increase in those >50 years (10.4 - 27.8%). CFR was slightly higher among females, toddlers, and adults >50 years. No significant change in CFR was observed over study period. Case-control study showed a higher number of IMD sequelae among cases compared to age- and gender-matched controls, especially in those ≥ 50 years.Conclusion: The study showed that, despite a relatively low incidence rate, IMD is responsible for a high CFR, namely in older age groups and by a high number of IMD sequelae. The study showed that leveraging data from existing databases can be used to complement surveillance data in truly assessing the epidemiology of IMD. Despite the availability of routine vaccination programs, IMD still poses a significant burden in the healthcare system of the UK. Optimization of vaccination programs may be required to reduce the disease burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Burkina Faso experienced an epidemic resurgence of dengue in 2016, which led to the implementation of several control strategies. In order to allow a better adaptation of these strategies, we studied the spatio-temporal distribution of dengue.Methods: Monthly dengue cases from 2016 to 2019, aggregated at the health district level, were used to map the crude incidence, excess risk, and smoothed incidence of dengue in Burkina Faso with GeoDa software. A Kulldoff scan on Satscan software was then used to identify spatio-temporal clustering of cases.Results: The results show that the distribution of dengue fever across the health districts of Burkina Faso is heterogeneous. Dengue was considered non-endemic in 9 out of the 70 health districts, minimally endemic in 45 districts (< 10 incidences), moderately endemic (10-100 incidences) in 12 districts, and highly endemic (> 100 incidences) in 4 districts. The main cluster covered the health districts of Baskuy, Nongr-massom, Sig-noghin, Boulmiougou, and Bogodogo. The months of October and November corresponded to the peak of cases and a significant temporal cluster in 2017.Conclusion: This study identified the spatial and temporal clustering of dengue cases in Burkina Faso. These results may help to develop better preventive strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dengue is the major mosquito-borne disease in Sri Lanka. After its first detection in January 2020, COVID-19 has become the major health issue in Sri Lanka. The impact of public health measures, notably restrictions on movement of people to curb COVID-19 transmission, on the incidence of dengue during the period March 2020 to April 2021 was investigated.Methods: The incidence of dengue and COVID-19, rainfall and the public movement restrictions implemented to contain COVID-19 transmission were obtained from Sri Lanka government sources. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used to predict the monthly dengue incidence from March 2020 to April 2021 for each of the country's 25 districts based on five years of pre-pandemic data, and compared with the actual recorded incidence of dengue during this period. Ovitrap collections of Aedes larvae were performed in Jaffna city in the Jaffna district from August 2020 to April 2021 and the findings compared with similar collections made in the pre-pandemic period from March 2019 to December 2019.Results: The recorded numbers of dengue cases for every month from March 2020 to April 2021 in the whole country and for all 25 districts over the same period were lower than the numbers of dengue cases predicted from data for the five years (2015-2019) immediately preceding the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of dengue cases recorded nationwide represented a 74% reduction from the predicted number of dengue cases for the March 2020 to April 2021 period. The numbers of Aedes larvae collected from ovitraps per month were reduced by 88.6% with a lower proportion of Ae. aegypti than Ae. albopictus in Jaffna city from August 2020 until April 2021 compared with March 2019 to December 2019.Conclusion: Public health measures that restricted movement of people, closed schools, universities and offices to contain COVID-19 transmission unexpectedly led to a significant reduction in the reported numbers of dengue cases in Sri Lanka. This contrasts with findings reported from Singapore. The differences between the two tropical islands have significant implications for the epidemiology of dengue. Reduced access to blood meals and lower vector densities, particularly of Ae. aegypti, resulting from the restrictions on movement of people, are suggested to have contributed to the lower dengue incidence in Sri Lanka. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Direct observation of the household spread of influenza and respiratory infections is limited; much of our understanding comes from mathematical models. The study aims to determine household incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI), lower (LRTI) and upper (URTI) respiratory infections within a primary care routine data and identify factors associated with the diseases’ incidence. Methods We conducted two five-year retrospective analyses of influenza-like illness (ILI), lower (LRTI) and upper (URTI) respiratory infections using the England Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) primary care sentinel network database; a cross-sectional study reporting incident rate ratio (IRR) from a negative binomial model and a retrospective cohort study, using a shared gamma frailty survival model, reporting hazard ratios (HR). We reported the following household characteristics: children

Abstract Background Acute gastroenteritis (AGE) is a highly transmissible condition spreading rapidly between individuals and within households. Rotavirus vaccination was introduced in the UK in 2013. The study objectives were to investigate how acute gastroenteritis incidence changed over 25 years and household incidence of AGE since 2013. Methods Repeated cross-sectional study of Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre network. We used a negative binomial model to report incidence rate ratio (IRR) using the last 5 years data. We also conducted a retrospective cohort analysis, using a shared gamma frailty model (2013–2017). We explored the impact of child under 5- years, household size, socioeconomic status quintile, and rurality. Results In the cross-sectional analysis, the IRR of AGE in households with a child of under 5 years was 12.20 (95%CI 11.08–13.45-, p

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) disparities vary by country and population group, but often have spatial features. This study of the United States state of Virginia assessed CRC outcomes, and identified demographic, socioeconomic and healthcare access contributors to CRC disparities.Methods: County- and city-level cross-sectional data for 2011-2015 CRC incidence, mortality, and mortality-incidence ratio (MIR) were analyzed for geographically determined clusters (hotspots and cold spots) and their correlates. Spatial regression examined predictors including proportion of African American (AA) residents, rural-urban status, socioeconomic (SES) index, CRC screening rate, and densities of primary care providers (PCP) and gastroenterologists. Stationarity, which assesses spatial equality, was examined with geographically weighted regression.Results: For incidence, one CRC hotspot and two cold spots were identified, including one large hotspot for MIR in southwest Virginia. In the spatial distribution of mortality, no clusters were found. Rurality and AA population were most associated with incidence. SES index, rurality, and PCP density were associated with spatial distribution of mortality. SES index and rurality were associated with MIR. Local coefficients indicated stronger associations of predictor variables in the southwestern region.Conclusions: Rurality, low SES, and racial distribution were important predictors of CRC incidence, mortality, and MIR. Regions with concentrations of one or more factors of disparities face additional hurdles to improving CRC outcomes. A large cluster of high MIR in southwest Virginia region requires further investigation to improve early cancer detection and support survivorship. Spatial analysis can identify high-disparity populations and be used to inform targeted cancer control programming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Myocardial Infarction (MI) is a major important public health concern and has huge burden on health system across the world. This study aimed to explore the spatial and temporal analysis of the incidence of MI to identify potential clusters of the incidence of MI patterns across rural areas in Zanjan province, Iran.Materials& Methods: This was a retrospective and geospatial analysis study of the incidence of MI data from nine hospitals during 2014-2018. Three different spatial analysis methods (Spatial autocorrelation, hot spot analysis and cluster and outlier analysis) were used to identify potential clusters and high-risk areas of the incidence of MI at the study area.Results: Three thousand eight hundred twenty patients were registered at Zanjan hospitals due to MI during 2014-2018. The overall age-adjusted incidence rate of MI was 343 cases per 100,000 person which was raised from 88 cases in 2014 to 114 cases in 2018 per 100,000 person-year (a 30% increase, P < 0.001). Golabar region had the highest age-adjusted incidence rate of MI (515 cases per 100,000 person). Five hot spots and one high-high cluster were detected using spatial analysis methods.Conclusion: This study showed that there is a great deal of spatial variations in the pattern of the incidence of MI in Zanjan province. The high incidence rate of MI in the study area compared to the national average, is a warning to local health authorities to determine the possible causes of disease incidence and potential drivers of high-risk areas. The spatial cluster analysis provides new evidence for policy-makers to design tailored interventions to reduce the incidence of MI and allocate health resource to unmet need areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Measles accounts for high morbidity and mortality in children, especially in developing countries. In 2017, about 11,190 measles cases were recorded in Nigeria, including Bauchi State. The aim of this study was to describe the trend and burden of measles in Bauchi State, Nigeria.Method: We analyzed secondary data of measles cases extracted from the Measles Surveillance data system in Bauchi State from January 2013 to June 2018. The variables extracted included age, sex, doses of vaccination, case location and outcome. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, logistic regression, and multiplicative time series model (α = 0.05).Results: A total of 4935 suspected measles cases with an average annual incidence rate of 15.3 per 100,000 population and 57 deaths (Case Fatality Rate, CFR: 1.15%) were reported. Among the reported cases, 294 (6%;) were laboratory-confirmed, while clinically compatible and epi-linked cases were 402 (8%) and 3879 (70%), respectively. Of the 4935 measles cases, 2576 (52%) were males, 440 (9%) were under 1 year of age, and 3289 (67%) were between 1 and 4 years. The average annual incidence rate among the 1-4 year age-group was 70.3 per 100,000 population. The incidence rate was lowest in 2018 with 2.1 per 100,000 and highest in 2015 with 26.2 per 100,000 population. The measles cases variation index per quarter was highest in quarter 1 (198.86), followed by quarter 2 (62.21) and least in quarter 4 (10.37) of every year. Only 889 (18%) of the measles cases received at least one dose of measles vaccine, 2701 (54.7%) had no history of measles vaccination while 1346 (27.3%) had unknown vaccination status. The fatality of measles in Bauchi State were significantly associated with being under 5 years (AOR = 5.58; 95%CI: 2.19-14.22) and not having at least a dose of MCV (OR = 7.14; 95%CI: 3.70-14.29).Conclusion: Measles burden remains high in Bauchi State despite a decrease in its incidence over the study years. Most of the cases occurred in the first quarter of every year. Improved routine measles surveillance for prompt case management could reduce the burden of the disease in Bauchi State. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although colorectal cancer screening has contributed to decreased incidence and mortality, disparities are present by race/ethnicity. The Citywide Colon Cancer Control Coalition (C5) and NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH) promoted screening colonoscopy from 2003 on, and hypothesized future reductions in CRC incidence, mortality and racial/ethnic disparities.Methods: We assessed annual percent change (APC) in NYC CRC incidence, stage and mortality rates through 2016 in a longitudinal cross-sectional study of NY State Cancer Registry, NYC Vital Statistics, and NYC Community Health Survey (CHS) data. Linear regression tested associations between CRC mortality rates and risk factors.Results: Overall CRC incidence rates from 2000 decreased 2.8% yearly from 54.1 to 37.3/100,000 population in 2016, and mortality rates from 2003 decreased 2.9% yearly from 21.0 to 13.9 in 2016 at similar rates for all racial/ethnic groups. Local stage disease decreased overall with a transient increase from 2002 to 2007. In 2016, CRC incidence was higher among Blacks (42.5 per 100,000) than Whites (38.0), Latinos (31.7) and Asians (30.0). In 2016, Blacks had higher mortality rates (17.9), than Whites (15.2), Latinos (10.4) and Asians (8.8). In 2016, colonoscopy rates among Blacks were 72.2%, Latinos 71.1%, Whites 67.2%, and Asians, 60.9%. CRC mortality rates varied by neighborhood and were independently associated with Black race, CRC risk factors and access to care.Conclusions: In a diverse urban population, a citywide campaign to increase screening colonoscopy was associated with decreased incidence and mortality among all ethnic/racial groups. Higher CRC burden among the Black population demonstrate more interventions are needed to improve equity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Effective reduction of tuberculosis (TB) requires information on the distribution of TB incidence rate across time and location. This study aims to identify the spatio-temporal pattern of TB incidence rate in Iran between 2008 and 2018.Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on aggregated TB data (50,500 patients) at the provincial level provided by the Ministry of Health in Iran between 2008 and 2018. The Anselin Local Moran's I and Getis-Ord Gi* were performed to identify the spatial variations of the disease. Furthermore, spatial scan statistic was employed for purely temporal and spatio-temporal analyses. In all instances, the null hypothesis of no clusters was rejected at p ≤ 0.05.Results: The overall incidence rate of TB decreased from 13.46 per 100,000 (95% CI: 13.19-13.73) in 2008 to 10.88 per 100,000 (95% CI: 10.65-11.11) in 2018. The highest incidence rate of TB was observed in southeast and northeast of Iran for the whole study period. Additionally, spatial cluster analysis discovered Khuzestan Province, in the West of the country, having significantly higher rates than neighbouring provinces in terms of both total TB and smear-positive pulmonary TB (SPPTB). Purely temporal analysis showed that high-rate and low-rate clusters were predominantly distributed in the time periods 2010-2014 and 2017-2018. Spatio-temporal results showed that the statistically significant clusters were mainly distributed from centre to the east during the study period. Some high-trend TB and SPPTB statistically significant clusters were found.Conclusion: The results provided an overview of the latest TB spatio-temporal status In Iran and identified decreasing trends of TB in the 2008-2018 period. Despite the decreasing incidence rate, there is still need for screening, and targeting of preventive interventions, especially in high-risk areas. Knowledge of the spatio-temporal pattern of TB can be useful for policy development as the information regarding the high-risk areas would contribute to the selection of areas needed to be targeted for the expansion of health facilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The high prevalence of COVID-19 has made it a new pandemic. Predicting both its prevalence and incidence throughout the world is crucial to help health professionals make key decisions. In this study, we aim to predict the incidence of COVID-19 within a two-week period to better manage the disease.Methods: The COVID-19 datasets provided by Johns Hopkins University, contain information on COVID-19 cases in different geographic regions since January 22, 2020 and are updated daily. Data from 252 such regions were analyzed as of March 29, 2020, with 17,136 records and 4 variables, namely latitude, longitude, date, and records. In order to design the incidence pattern for each geographic region, the information was utilized on the region and its neighboring areas gathered 2 weeks prior to the designing. Then, a model was developed to predict the incidence rate for the coming 2 weeks via a Least-Square Boosting Classification algorithm.Results: The model was presented for three groups based on the incidence rate: less than 200, between 200 and 1000, and above 1000. The mean absolute error of model evaluation were 4.71, 8.54, and 6.13%, respectively. Also, comparing the forecast results with the actual values in the period in question showed that the proposed model predicted the number of globally confirmed cases of COVID-19 with a very high accuracy of 98.45%.Conclusion: Using data from different geographical regions within a country and discovering the pattern of prevalence in a region and its neighboring areas, our boosting-based model was able to accurately predict the incidence of COVID-19 within a two-week period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To predict the trend of AIDS in specific age groups and to determine the objective population for AIDS screening, this study explored the three transmission routes and characterized each patient group using the APC model based on the whole, local, and immigrant populations in Zhejiang, China.Methods: The data recruited in this paper was obtained from the national Comprehensive AIDS Prevention and Control Information System - Antiviral Therapy Management database and the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System and the Statistical Yearbook of Zhejiang, China. An APC model was used to estimate the impact of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of AIDS, as well as to predict the AIDS incidence in specific age groups based on different sexes with different transmission routes.Results: The AIDS incidence peaked in males aged 20-35 years; the incidence of males was higher than that of females due to the impact of period; obvious cohort effect was observed among the immigrants. In the whole and local populations, the incidences of males in all age groups and females in both the 35-year-old group and the whole age group were predicted to increase sharply in 5 years. In the immigrant population, the AIDS incidences in both sexes in all age groups were expected to increase significantly in 5 years. Under the influence of period, the incidence of AIDS via homosexual transmission in the whole population and the local population increased and remained stable after 2015. At the same time, the incidence of AIDS transmitted by homosexual and heterosexual routes in the immigrants also showed an increasing trend.Conclusions: The results elucidate that there are sex differences in AIDS incidence, and the incidence of AIDS through various transmission routes in all groups is predicted to exhibit an upward trend in the 5 years to come. Effective intervention strategies should be developed and implemented by the public health departments in Zhejiang to control the epidemic of AIDS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Many studies have been conducted to assess the incidence of congenital heart disease (CHD). However, results were greatly inconsistent among these studies with a broad range of findings.Methods: A prospective census-based cohort study was conducted in Qingdao, China, from August 1, 2018 to April 30, 2019. All of the local registered pregnant women were continuously investigated and followed from 15 to 20 weeks of gestation to delivery, tracking the CHD cases in both the fetal and neonatal stages. A logistic regression model was applied to assess the association between CHD and possible risk factors.Results: The positive rate of prenatal CHD screening was 14.36 per 1000 fetuses and the incidence of CHD was 9.38 per 1000 live births. Results from logistic regression indicated that, living in the countryside (odds ratio, (OR): 0.771; 95% confidence interval, (CI): 0.628-0.946) and having a childbearing history (OR: 0.802; 95%CI: 0.676-0.951) were negatively associated with CHD. However, twin pregnancy (OR: 1.957, 95% CI: 1.245-3.076), illness in the first trimester (OR: 1.306; 95% CI: 1.048-1.628), a family history of CHD (OR: 7.156; 95% CI: 3.293-15.552), and having a child with a birth defect (OR: 2.086; 95% CI: 1.167-3.731) were positively associated with CHD.Conclusion: CHD is a serious health problem in Qingdao. The CHD incidence found in this study was similar to existing research. The positive rate of prenatal CHD screening was higher than the incidence of neonatal CHD. Moreover, CHD risk factors were identified in our study, and our findings may have great implications for formation CHD intervention strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prevention of TB is paramount to achieving elimination targets as recommended by the World Health Organization's action framework for low incidence countries striving to eliminate TB. Although the rates of TB in Canada are low, understanding the latent TB infection (LTBI) cascade is paramount to identifying gaps in care and treatment barriers, thereby increasing the effectiveness of preventive strategies. The purpose of this study was to examine the LTBI cascade of care and identify barriers to treatment completion in adults referred from primary care to a regional tertiary care TB clinic in Ottawa, Canada.Methods: Electronic medical records between January 2010 and December 2016 were reviewed retrospectively and an LTBI cascade of care was constructed from The Ottawa Hospital TB clinic and surrounding primary care clinics. A cohort of 2207 patients with untreated LTBI was used to ascertain the associations between demographic and clinical factors for both treatment non-initiation and non-completion using log-binomial univariable and multivariable regression models.Results: Of 2207 patients with untreated LTBI who were seen in the clinic during the study period, 1771 (80.2%) were offered treatment, 1203 (67.9% of those offered) started treatment, and 795 (66.1% of those started) completed treatment. In multivariable analysis, non-initiation of treatment was associated with older age (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 1.06 per 5-year increase, 95% CI: 1.03-1.08) and female gender (aRR 1.28, 95% CI: 1.11-1.47). Non completion of treatment was associated with referral from the TB Clinic back to the primary care team following initial consult (aRR 1.62, 95% CI: 1.35-1.94) and treatment with the standard of 9 months of Isoniazid (9H) compared to 4 months of Rifampin (4R) (aRR 1.45, 95% CI:1.20-1.74).Conclusions: LTBI treatment completion was significantly decreased among patients who were referred back to primary care from the TB clinic. The 4R regimen resulted in more people completing LTBI treatment compared to 9H in keeping with a recently published RCT. Improved education, communication, and collaboration between tertiary care TB clinics and primary care teams may improve treatment completion rates and address the TB burden in low incidence communities in Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most common malignant disease of the endocrine system. Based on the previously published reports, the incidence of TC has been increasing in the past 25 years, and the reason for the increase is not yet clear. The present study aims to reveal the long-term trends and age-period-cohort effects for the incidence of TC in China and the U.S. from 1990 to 2017.Methods: We examined the trends of TC incidence and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of rate using the Joinpoint regression analysis in the two countries, for the different genders (men/women) in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2017). We further used an age-period-cohort model to analyze age-period-cohort effects on TC incidence.Results: The ASIR of China increased markedly with AAPC of 4.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.0, 5.0%) and 1.8% (1.6, 2.0%) for men and women during 1990-2017. The ASIR of the U. S increased by 1.4% (1.0, 1.8%) and 1.3% (0.9, 1.7%) for men and women from 1990 to 2017.TC increased with the age and period. Aging was one of the most influential factors of TC in China. The age effect increased markedly in the U.S. compared with China. The period effect showed an increase in China while that tended to grow steadily during 1990-2017 in the U.S. The cohort effect peaked in 1963-1967 birth cohorts for men and women in China and declined consistently in the birth cohort in the U.S.Conclusion: From 1990 to 2017, due to ionizing radiation and over-diagnosis, age-standardized TC incidence rates in both genders rose in China and the U.S. The standardized incidence rate of women is higher than that of men. It is necessary to provide women with reasonable prevention and protection measures for TC. We need to apply for health services and screening to reduce ionizing radiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The unclear mechanisms and severity of injuries in the injury pyramids for Chinese children and adolescents prevent the prioritization of interventions. This study aimed to describe the injury mechanisms and injury pyramids in this population to provide a priority for injury prevention strategies.Methods: Death, hospitalization, and outpatient/emergency department visit data from patients aged 0 ~ 17 years with injuries were obtained from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2017, in Zhuhai City, China. The injury mechanism ratios were calculated, and the injury pyramid ratios were drawn in proportion using injury mortality and the incidence of both injury hospitalizations and outpatient/emergency department injury visits.Results: The top three mechanisms for injuries in children and adolescents treated in outpatient/emergency departments were falls (52.02%), animal bites (14.57%), and blunt injuries (10.60%). The top three mechanisms for injury hospitalizations were falls (37.33%), road traffic injuries (17.87%), and fire/burns (14.29%), while the top three mechanisms for injury deaths were drowning (32.91%), road traffic injuries (20.25%) and falls (13.92%). The incidence rate of outpatient/emergency department injury visits for children and adolescents was 11,210.87/100,000; the incidence rate of injury hospitalization was 627.09/100,000, and the injury death rate was 10.70/100,000. For each injury death, there were 59 injury hospitalizations and 1048 outpatient/emergency injury visits.Conclusions: The injury mechanisms were different for injury-related outpatient/emergency department visits, hospitalizations, and deaths among children and adolescents. The injury mechanisms by sex at different stages of child development, and interventions should be formulated based on this finding. The ratios of the injury pyramids varied by age, sex, region, and injury mechanisms; minor nonfatal injuries were more common in children and adolescents. The differences in the severity and extent of the injuries suggested that injury interventions in children and adolescents still have a long way to go. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mumps is classified as a class C infection disease in China, and the Chongqing area has one of the highest incidence rates in the country. We aimed to establish a prediction model for mumps in Chongqing and analyze its seasonality, which is important for risk analysis and allocation of resources in the health sector.Methods: Data on incidence of mumps from January 2004 to December 2018 were obtained from Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention. The incidence of mumps from 2004 to 2017 was fitted using a seasonal autoregressive comprehensive moving average (SARIMA) model. The root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to compare the goodness of fit of the models. The 2018 incidence data were used for validation.Results: From 2004 to 2018, a total of 159,181 cases (93,655 males and 65,526 females) of mumps were reported in Chongqing, with significantly more men than women. The age group of 0-19 years old accounted for 92.41% of all reported cases, and students made up the largest proportion (62.83%), followed by scattered children and children in kindergarten. The SARIMA(2, 1, 1) × (0, 1, 1)12 was the best fit model, RMSE and MAPE were 0.9950 and 39.8396%, respectively.Conclusion: Based on the study findings, the incidence of mumps in Chongqing has an obvious seasonal trend, and SARIMA(2, 1, 1) × (0, 1, 1)12 model can also predict the incidence of mumps well. The SARIMA model of time series analysis is a feasible and simple method for predicting mumps in Chongqing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Incarceration has been associated with higher cardiovascular risk, yet data evaluating its association with cardiovascular disease events are limited. The study objective was to evaluate the association between incarceration and incident fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) events.Methods: Black and white adults from the community-based Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adult (CARDIA) study (baseline 1985-86, n = 5105) were followed through August 2017. Self-reported incarceration was measured at baseline (1985-1986) and Year 2 (1987-1988), and fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease events, including coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure, and all-cause mortality, were captured through 2017. Analyses were completed in September 2019. Cumulative CVD incidence rates and Cox proportional hazards were compared overall by incarceration status. An interaction between incarceration and race was identified, so results were also analyzed by sex-race groups.Results: 351 (6.9%) CARDIA participants reported a history of incarceration. Over 29.0 years mean follow-up, CVD incidence rate was 3.52 per 1000 person-years in participants with a history of incarceration versus 2.12 per 1000 person-years in participants without a history of incarceration (adjusted HR = 1.33 [95% CI, 0.90-1.95]). Among white men, incarceration was associated with higher risk of incident cardiovascular disease (adjusted HR = 3.35 [95% CI, 1.54-7.29) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR = 2.52 [95% CI, 1.32-4.83]), but these associations were not statistically significant among other sex-race groups after adjustment.Conclusions: Incarceration was associated with incident cardiovascular disease rates, but associations were only significant in one sex-race group after multivariable adjustment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Colombia has the fourth highest incidence rate of HIV/AIDS among all Latin American countries and it has been increasing since the 1980s. However, the number of studies that addresses this trend is limited. Here, we employed spatial and temporal trend analyses to study the behaviour of the epidemic in the Colombian territory.Methods: Our sample included 72,994 cases of HIV/AIDS and 21,898 AIDS-related deaths reported to the National Ministry of Health between 2008 and 2016. We employed the joinpoint regression model to analyse the annual HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality rates. In the spatial analysis, we used univariate autocorrelation techniques and the Kernel density estimator.Results: While the HIV/AIDS incidence had an increasing trend in Colombia, the AIDS mortality rate was stable. HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality showed a downward trend in the 0-14 age group. An upward trend was observed for HIV/AIDS incidence in people older than 15 years and with the highest trend in the 65 years and above group. AIDS mortality showed an increasing trend among people aged 65 years or older. The comparison between the sexes showed an upward trend of HIV/AIDS incidence in all age groups and AIDS-mortality rates in 65 years and above in men, while in women, the incidence was upward among those aged 45 years and above, and concerning the AIDS-mortality rate in the 45-64 group. The high-high clusters of HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality were located in the Andean and Caribbean regions.Conclusion: Our study found an upward trend in HIV/AIDS incidence and a stable trend in the AIDS mortality rate in Colombia. The downward trend in HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality rate in the 0-14 age group reflects the downwards mother-to-child HIV transmission. The upward trend in HIV/AIDS incidence in older women and AIDS mortality in younger women rates, compared with men, may be due to late diagnosis and treatment. The Caribbean and the 'coffee belt' regions were the most impacted by the HIV epidemic, most likely due to sexual tourism. Our results provide crucial information that may help Colombian health authorities fight HIV transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The study aimed to estimate the incidence of and period of progression to stage 2 hypertension from normal blood pressure.Methods: We selected a total of 21,172 normotensive individuals between 2003 and 2004 from the National Health Insurance Service-Health Screening and followed them up until 2015. The criteria for blood pressure were based on the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association 2017 guideline (normal BP: SBP < 120 and DBP < 80 mmHg, elevated BP: SBP 120-129 and DBP < 80 mmHg, stage 1 hypertension: SBP 130-139 or DBP 80-89 mmHg, stage 2 hypertension: SBP ≥140 or DBP ≥ 90 mmHg). We classified the participants into four courses (Course A: normal BP → elevated BP → stage 1 hypertension→ stage 2 hypertension, Course B: normal BP → elevated BP → stage 2 hypertension, Course C: normal BP → stage 1 hypertension → stage 2 hypertension, Course D: normal BP → stage 2 hypertension) according to their progression from normal blood pressure to stage 2 hypertension.Results: During the median 12.23 years of follow-up period, 52.8% (n= 11,168) and 23.6% (n=5004) of the participants had stage 1 and stage 2 hypertension, respectively. In particular, over 60 years old had a 2.8-fold higher incidence of stage 2 hypertension than 40-49 years old. After the follow-up period, 77.5% (n=3879) of participants with stage 2 hypertension were found to be course C (n= 2378) and D (n=1501). After the follow-up period, 77.5% (n=3879) of participants with stage 2 hypertension were found to be course C (n= 2378) and D (n=1501). The mean years of progression from normal blood pressure to stage 2 hypertension were 8.7±2.6 years (course A), 6.1±2.9 years (course B), 7.5±2.8 years (course C) and 3.2±2.0 years, respectively.Conclusions: This study found that the incidence of hypertension is associated with the progression at each stage. We suggest that the strategies necessary to prevent progression to stage 2 hypertension need to be set differently for each target course. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We aimed to clarify the predisposing factors for adolescent constipation in a longitudinal study, because while factors associated with childhood constipation have been reported, prospective studies on the incidence of constipation are lacking.Methods: We enrolled 5540 adolescents aged 12 to 13 years from the Toyama Birth Cohort Study-a community-based prospective study examining children's health. The incidence of constipation, defined as bowel movement frequency of less than once every 2 days, was surveyed during the three-year period from baseline (grade 4) to follow-up (grade 7). Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to explore the association between the incidence of adolescent constipation and their lifestyle variables.Results: A total of 261 adolescents (4.7%) developed constipation during the three-year period. Female sex (odds ratio [OR] = 2.62,) overweight (OR = 0.60), and infrequent intake of fruits (OR = 1.50) at baseline were associated with the incidence of constipation. Furthermore, factors related to lifestyle changes and psychological status such as skipping breakfast (OR = 1.73), becoming physically inactive (OR = 1.55), and being persistently irritated (OR = 1.80) were significantly associated with the incidence of constipation.Conclusion: Our prospective study demonstrated that female sex, insufficient fruit intake, and deteriorating lifestyles such as skipping breakfast and becoming inactive during the 3-year period were associated with the incidence of adolescent constipation. Beyond anecdotal, maintaining a healthy lifestyle is recommended to reduce the incidence of adolescent constipation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mapping the spatial distribution of disease occurrence is a strategy to identify contextual factors that could be useful for public health policies. The purpose of this ecological study was to examine to which extent the socioeconomic deprivation and the urbanization level can explain gender difference of geographic distribution in stroke incidence in Pays de Brest, France between 2008 and 2013.Methods: Stroke cases aged 60 years or more were extracted from the Brest stroke registry and combined at the census block level. Contextual socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic variables at the census block level come from the 2013 national census. We used spatial and non-spatial regression models to study the geographic correlation between socioeconomic deprivation, degree or urbanization and stroke incidence. We generated maps using spatial geographically weighted models, after longitude and latitude smoothing and adjustment for covariates.Results: Stroke incidence was comparable in women and men (6.26 ± 3.5 vs 6.91 ± 3.3 per 1000 inhabitants-year, respectively). Results showed different patterns of the distribution of stroke risk and its association with deprivation or urbanisation across gender. For women, stroke incidence was spatially homogeneous over the entire study area, but was associated with deprivation level in urban census blocks: age adjusted risk ratio of high versus low deprivation = 1.24, [95%CI 1.04-1.46]. For men, three geographic clusters were identified. One located in the northern rural and deprived census blocks with a 9-14% increase in the risk of stroke. Two others clusters located in the south-eastern (mostly urban part) and south-western (suburban and rural part) with low deprivation level and associated with higher risk of stroke incidence between (3 and 8%) and (8.5 and 19%) respectively. There were no differences in profile of cardiovascular risk factors, stroke type and stroke severity between clusters, or when comparing clusters cases to the rest of the study population.Conclusions: Understanding whether and how neighborhood and patient's characteristics influence stroke risk may be useful for both epidemiological research and healthcare service planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Women's health remains a global public health concern, as enshrined in the Sustainable Development Goals. This study, therefore, sought to assess the individual and contextual factors associated with barriers to accessing healthcare among women in Ghana.Methods: The study was conducted among 9370 women aged 15-49, using data from the 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey. Barrier to healthcare, derived from four questions- whether a woman faced problems in getting money, distance, companionship, and permission to see a doctor-was the outcome variable. Descriptive and multilevel logistic regression analyses were carried out. The fixed effect results of the multilevel logistic regression analyses were reported using adjusted odds ratios at a 95% confidence interval.Results: More than half (51%) of the women reported to have at least one form of barrier to accessing healthcare. Women aged 45-49 (AOR = 0.65, CI: 0.49-0.86), married women (AOR = 0.71, CI:0.58-0.87), those with a higher level of education (AOR = 0.51, CI: 0.37-0.69), those engaged in clerical or sales occupation (AOR = 0.855, CI: 0.74-0.99), and those who were covered by health insurance (AOR = 0.59, CI: 0.53-0.66) had lower odds of facing barriers in accessing healthcare. Similarly, those who listened to radio at least once in a week (AOR =0.77, CI: 0.66-0.90), those who watched television at least once a week (AOR = 0.75, CI: 0.64-0.87), and women in the richest wealth quintile (AOR = 0.47, CI: 0.35-0.63) had lower odds of facing barriers in accessing healthcare. However, women who were widowed (AOR = 1.47, CI: 1.03-2.10), those in the Volta Region (AOR 2.20, CI: I.38-3.53), and those in the Upper West Region (AOR =2.22, CI: 1.32-3.74) had the highest odds of facing barriers to healthcare accessibility.Conclusion: This study shows that individual and contextual factors are significant in predicting barriers in healthcare access in Ghana. The factors identified include age, marital status, employment, health insurance coverage, frequency of listening to radio, frequency of watching television, wealth status, and region of residence. These findings highlight the need to pay critical attention to these factors in order to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals 3.1, 3.7, and 3.8. It is equally important to strengthen existing strategies to mitigate barriers to accessing healthcare among women in Ghana. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We aim to study the profile, and pathological characteristics of sudden death in young in purpose of recommendations for prevention.Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study using autopsy data from the Department of Forensic Medicine of Monastir (Tunisia). A review of all autopsies performed for 28 years was done (August 1990 to December 2018). In each case, clinical information, and circumstances of death were obtained. A complete forensic autopsy and histological, and toxicological investigations were performed. We have included all sudden death in persons aged between 18 and 35 years.Results: We collected 137 cases of sudden death during the studied period. The mean age of the studied population was 26.47 years. Almost 72% deaths were classified as cardiac death, and was due to ischemic heart disease in 32.32%. Sudden death was attributed to a pleuropulmonary cause in 7.4%, an abdominal cause in 6%, and from a neurological origin in 4.5%. The cause of sudden death in this group was not established by 9.5%.Conclusion: In this series, sudden death in young adults occurs mainly in a smoking male, aged between 18 and 24 years old, occurring at rest, in the morning, and early in the week. It is more common, especially in summer. Sudden death is most often the first manifestation of pathologies, especially unsuspected heart diseases. The predominance of cardiovascular causes is the common denominator of almost all studies reported in the literature. Our findings suggest that prevention of sudden death among young adults under the age of 35 years should also focus on evaluation for causes not associated with structural heart disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In any study with voluntary participation, self-selection risks leading to invalid conclusions. If the determinants of selection are observed, it is however possible to restore the parameters of interest by reweighting the sample to match the population, but this approach has seldom been applied in epidemiological research.Methods: We reweighted the Malmö Diet and Cancer (MDC) study based on population register data on background variables, including socio-demographics and hospital admissions for both participants and the background population. Following individuals from baseline in 1991-1996 and at most until 2016, we studied mortality (all-cause, cancer, and CVD), incidences (cancer and CVD), and associations between these outcomes and background variables. Results from the unweighted and reweighted participant sample were compared with those from the background population.Results: Mortality was substantially lower in participants than in the background population, but reweighting the sample helped only little to make the numbers similar to those in the background population. For incidences and associations, numbers were generally similar between participants and the background population already without reweighting, rendering reweighting unnecessary.Conclusion: Reweighting samples based on an extensive range of sociodemographic characteristics and previous hospitalizations does not necessarily yield results that are valid for the population as a whole. In the case of MDC, there appear to be important factors related to both mortality and selection into the study that are not observable in registry data, making it difficult to obtain accurate numbers on population mortality based on cohort participants. These issues seem less relevant for incidences and associations, however. Overall, our results suggest that representativeness must be judged on a case-by-case basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To investigate the regional and age-specific distribution of AIDS/HIV in China from 2004 to 2017 and to conduct time series analysis of the epidemiological trends.Method: Using official surveillance data from publicly accessible database of the national infectious disease reporting system, we described long-term patterns of incidence and death in AIDS/HIV, analyzed age group and regional epidemic characteristics, and established Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis.Result: The incidence and death of AIDS/HIV have increased rapidly from 2004 to 2017, with significant difference regarding age groups and provincial regions (a few provinces appear as hot spots). With goodness-of-fit criteria and using data from 2004 to 2015, ARIMA (0,1,3) × (2,0,0), ARIMA (3,1,0) × (1,0,1), and ARIMA (0,1,2) × (2,0,0) were chosen as the optimal model for the incidence of AIDS, HIV, and combined; ARIMA (0,1,3) × (1,0,0) was chosen as the optimal model for the death of AIDS, HIV, and combined. ARIMA models robustly predicted the incidence and death of AIDS/HIV in 2016 and 2017.Conclusion: A focused intervention strategy targeting specific regions and age groups is essential for the prevention and control of AIDS/HIV. ARIMA models function as data-driven and evidence-based methods to forecast the trends of infectious diseases and formulate public health policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: As global progress to reduce malaria transmission continues, it is increasingly important to track changes in malaria incidence rather than prevalence. Risk estimates for Africa have largely underutilized available health management information systems (HMIS) data to monitor trends. This study uses national HMIS data, together with environmental and geographical data, to assess spatial-temporal patterns of malaria incidence at facility catchment level in Uganda, over a recent 5-year period.Methods: Data reported by 3446 health facilities in Uganda, between July 2015 and September 2019, was analysed. To assess the geographic accessibility of the health facilities network, AccessMod was employed to determine a three-hour cost-distance catchment around each facility. Using confirmed malaria cases and total catchment population by facility, an ecological Bayesian conditional autoregressive spatial-temporal Poisson model was fitted to generate monthly posterior incidence rate estimates, adjusted for caregiver education, rainfall, land surface temperature, night-time light (an indicator of urbanicity), and vegetation index.Results: An estimated 38.8 million (95% Credible Interval [CI]: 37.9-40.9) confirmed cases of malaria occurred over the period, with a national mean monthly incidence rate of 20.4 (95% CI: 19.9-21.5) cases per 1000, ranging from 8.9 (95% CI: 8.7-9.4) to 36.6 (95% CI: 35.7-38.5) across the study period. Strong seasonality was observed, with June-July experiencing highest peaks and February-March the lowest peaks. There was also considerable geographic heterogeneity in incidence, with health facility catchment relative risk during peak transmission months ranging from 0 to 50.5 (95% CI: 49.0-50.8) times higher than national average. Both districts and health facility catchments showed significant positive spatial autocorrelation; health facility catchments had global Moran's I = 0.3 (p < 0.001) and districts Moran's I = 0.4 (p < 0.001). Notably, significant clusters of high-risk health facility catchments were concentrated in Acholi, West Nile, Karamoja, and East Central - Busoga regions.Conclusion: Findings showed clear countrywide spatial-temporal patterns with clustering of malaria risk across districts and health facility catchments within high risk regions, which can facilitate targeting of interventions to those areas at highest risk. Moreover, despite high and perennial transmission, seasonality for malaria incidence highlights the potential for optimal and timely implementation of targeted interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is endemic in Iran and has a high fatality rate. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between CCHF incidence and meteorological variables in Zahedan district, which has a high incidence of this disease.Methods: Data about meteorological variables and CCHF incidence was inquired from 2010 to 2017 for Zahedan district. The analysis was performed using univariate and multivariate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models and Generalized Additive Models (GAM) using R software. AIC, BIC and residual tests were used to test the goodness of fit of SARIMA models, and R2 was used to select the best model in GAM/GAMM.Results: During the years under study, 190 confirmed cases of CCHF were identified in Zahedan district. The fatality rate of the disease was 8.42%. The disease trend followed a seasonal pattern. The results of multivariate SARIMA showed the (0,1,1) (0,1,1)12 model with maximum monthly temperature lagged 5 months, forecasted the disease better than other models. In the GAM, monthly average temperature lagged 5 months, and the monthly minimum of relative humidity and total monthly rainfall without lag, had a nonlinear relation with the incidence of CCHF.Conclusions: Meteorological variables can affect CCHF occurrence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Direct observation of the household spread of influenza and respiratory infections is limited; much of our understanding comes from mathematical models. The study aims to determine household incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI), lower (LRTI) and upper (URTI) respiratory infections within a primary care routine data and identify factors associated with the diseases' incidence.Methods: We conducted two five-year retrospective analyses of influenza-like illness (ILI), lower (LRTI) and upper (URTI) respiratory infections using the England Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) primary care sentinel network database; a cross-sectional study reporting incident rate ratio (IRR) from a negative binomial model and a retrospective cohort study, using a shared gamma frailty survival model, reporting hazard ratios (HR). We reported the following household characteristics: children < 5 years old, each extra household member, gender, ethnicity (reference white), chronic disease, pregnancy, and rurality.Results: The IRR where there was a child < 5 years were 1·62 (1·38-1·89, p < 0·0001), 2·40 (2.04-2.83, p < 0·0001) and 4·46 (3.79-5.255, p < 0·0001) for ILI, LRTI and URTI respectively. IRR also increased with household size, rurality and presentations and by female gender, compared to male. Household incidence of URTI and LRTI changed little between years whereas influenza did and were greater in years with lower vaccine effectiveness. The HR where there was a child < 5 years were 2·34 (95%CI 1·88-2·90, p < 0·0001), 2·97 (95%CI 2·76-3·2, p < 0·0001) and 10·32 (95%CI 10.04-10.62, p < 0·0001) for ILI, LRTI and URTI respectively. HR were increased with female gender, rurality, and increasing household size.Conclusions: Patterns of household incidence can be measured from routine data and may provide insights for the modelling of disease transmission and public health policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The incidence of preterm birth (PTB, < 37 weeks of gestation) has been increasing in China and many other countries in recent years. However, the causes of the increase were not well understood. The current study aims to examine the contribution of maternal age, period of delivery, and maternal birth cohorts to long-term trends in preterm birth in Guangzhou, China.Methods: In a retrospective population-based study, data were obtained from 2,535,000 singleton live births with 20-43 gestational weeks from 2001 to 2016 and recorded in the Guangzhou Perinatal Health Care and Delivery Surveillance System, in China. The age-period-cohort models were applied to investigate the temporal changes in incidences of PTB, stratified by parity.Results: The incidence of preterm birth steadily increased from 5.1% in 2001 to 5.9% in 2016, with larger rise in primiparous mothers (from 5.0 to 5.9%) compared to multiparous mothers (from 5.6 to 5.9%). A J-shaped and a V-shaped relationship were found between maternal age and PTB among primiparous and multiparous mothers, respectively. A linear cohort effect was found among primiparous mothers with the lowest risk of PTB [risk ratio (RR) = 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.74 to 0.89] in 1961 and the highest risk (RR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.13) in 1997 compared to the mothers born in 1981. An inverse U-shaped association between maternal birth cohort and PTB was found in multiparous mothers. There were weak decreasing period effects on the trend of overall PTB among multiparous mothers and on the trend of extremely (< 27 weeks) or very (28-31 weeks) PTB among both parity groups during the period of 2001-2012.Conclusions: Our findings showed the PTB incidences had been increasing in the past 16 years in Guangzhou, China and both maternal age and cohort effects contributed to these trends. Further studies are recommended on the impact of altered maternal age and parity on premature births and corresponding public education and public health policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Following the global upward trend of cardiovascular diseases (CVD/CHD), much attention has been paid to lifestyle behaviors such as physical activity (PA). However, most of previous studies were conducted in developed countries and with just one measurement of physical activity. The aim of the current study is to assess the effect of changes in the PA on the incidence of CVD/CHD in middle-aged and older men and women in an Eastern-Mediterranean population, over a decade follow-up.Methods: This study has been conducted within the framework of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) including 4073 (57% women) participants without CVD/CHD at baseline. The participants were followed up for an average period of 12 years. The Iranian version of Modified Activity Questionnaire (MAQ) was used to measure PA at baseline and at the closest follow-up to the outcome. Subsequently, participants were categorized as "compliers", "non-compliers", "adopters" and "relapsers", based on their adherence to the PA guideline recommendations. All analysis has been conducted in two separate age groups including middle-aged and elderly in both men and women. The effect of PA patterns on incidence of CVD/CHD was investigated using Cox proportional hazard model. Variables including marital status, job status, education, smoking, and family history of CVD/CHD were adjusted in the models.Results: Adherence to guideline recommendation increased from 63.5 to 66.6% between the two measurements. At the second measurement of PA, the percentages of compliers, non-compliers, adopters and relapsers were 48.4, 18.3, 18.2, and 15.1%, respectively. In fully adjusted models, HRs of CVD and CHD for men aged 40-60 years in the complier group were 0.58 (95% CI: 0.38-0.87, P = 0.008) and 0.58 (95% CI: 0.38-0.89, P = 0.01), respectively. HRs of CVD and CHD for men aged 40-60 years in adopter group were 0.61 (95% CI: 0.38-0.96, P = 0.03) and 0.60 (95% CI: 0.37-0.97, P = 0.04) respectively. The corresponding values were not significant in women.Conclusions: Adhering to established PA recommendations have a protective effect on the incidence of CVD/CHD among middle-aged men; findings which need to be considered in reducing cardiovascular outcomes in this population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the major infectious diseases that seriously endanger people's health. In Shandong province, the relationship between the level of economic development and TB incidence has not been studied. This study aims to provide more research basis for the government to prevent and control TB by exploring the impact of different economic factors on TB incidence.Methods: By constructing threshold regression model (TRM), we described the extent to which different economic factors contribute to TB registered incidence and differences in TB registered incidence among seventeen cities with different levels of economic development in Shandong province, China, during 2006-2017. Data were retrieved from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.Results: Per capita medical expenditure (regression coefficient, -0.0314462; SD, 0.0079305; P > |t|, 0.000) and per capita savings (regression coefficient, 0.0001924; SD, 0.0000566; P > |t|, 0.001) passed the significance test at the level of 1%.They are the two economic indicators that have the greatest impact on TB registered incidence. Through the threshold test, we selected the per capita savings as the threshold variable. In the three stages of per capita savings (<9772.8086 China Yuan(CNY); 9772.8086-33,835.5391 CNY; >33,835.5391 CNY), rural per capita income always has a significant negative impact on the TB registered incidence (The regression coefficients are - 0.0015682, - 0.0028132 and - 0.0022253 respectively. P is 0.007,0.000 and 0.000 respectively.).In cities with good economies, TB registered incidence was 38.30% in 2006 and dropped to 25.10% by 2017. In cities with moderate economies, TB registered incidence peaked in 2008 at 43.10% and dropped to 27.1% by 2017.In poorer cities, TB registered incidence peaked in 2008 at 56.30% and dropped to 28.9% in 2017.Conclusion: We found that per capita savings and per capita medical expenditure are most closely related to the TB incidence. Therefore, relevant departments should formulate a more complete medical system and medical insurance policy to effectively solve the problem of "difficult and expensive medical treatment". In order to further reduce the TB incidence, in addition to timely and accurate diagnosis and treatment, it is more important for governments to increase investment in medicine and health care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The aim of this study is to quantify the burden caused by viral hepatitis in China from 1990 to 2016.Methods: Data from the GBD 2016 study were extracted to calculate incidence, prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Trends in DALYs were assessed in 33 provinces/regions.Results: From 1990 to 2016, the total incidence of hepatitis decreased by 88.5%. However, the prevalence of hepatitis (counts in thousands), increased by 37.6% from 153,856 (95% UI: 136,047-172,319) in 1990 to 211,721 (95% UI: 179,776-240,981) in 2016, with age-standardized prevalence rates changing slightly. The number and age-standardized rates of prevalence increased by 35.9 and 1.6% for hepatitis B, respectively, and by 81.8 and 30.4% for hepatitis C. Guangxi, Guangdong and Hainan had the highest age-standardized prevalence rates (≥16,500 per 100,000). Tibet, Qinghai and Gansu had the highest age-standardized DALYs rates (≥40 per 100,000). The largest absolute number of DALYs was observed in the 15-49 year age group in 2016. The highest rate of DALYs occurred in males aged 50-69 years and in females aged ≧70 years.Conclusion: The incidence and DALYs of viral hepatitis decreased dramatically from 1990 to 2016. However, the prevalence still remains at a high level, which may result in heavy burdens in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]