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Postponement of first births is a key cause of declining fertility rates, especially in East Asia where recovery from delayed childbearing has been weak. This paper investigates achievement of ideal ages at marriage and first birth in Singapore using survey data on 657 married women aged 25–34. Almost 50 per cent marry within one year of their ideal age, but less than 30 per cent have their first child within six months of their ideal interval to first birth, with around 50 per cent waiting longer than ideal. The high proportion of women experiencing a longer-than-ideal first birth interval was observed across all age and educational groups. Regression results show that co-residence with a foreign domestic worker and paid leave entitlements are associated with higher probability of achieving their ideal first birth interval, whereas availability of parents/in-laws, husband's help and unpaid leave do not reduce time to childbearing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the question as to whether Pakistan's fertility transition is stalling. The paper reviews the trajectories of fertility and its various determinants and compares Pakistan's trends with those of India and Bangladesh. Countries in the South Asia region share features such as cultural similarities (e.g. the low status of women and son preference) and high poverty levels. However, while Bangladesh and India are near replacement fertility today with modern contraceptive prevalence rates well above 50 per cent, Pakistan still has one of the highest fertility and lowest contraceptive prevalence levels in Asia. Our main conclusion is that Pakistan's fertility transition is close to stalling in mid-transition. The key causes of this stall are a high and unchanging desired family size, stalling demand for contraception and relatively low satisfaction of this demand. These are important obstacles to future decline in fertility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper considers son preference effects оn actual fertility behaviour in Kyrgyzstan, a post-Soviet country of Central Asia. Using data from the DHS2012 and DHS1997, I argue that risks of transitions to parities from the second to the fifth are significantly higher among women with no sons. Furthermore, the relation of risks of parity progressions to sex composition of children already born is not generally stronger in families with strict gender asymmetries. Attempting to explain this, I show that in such families, contraceptive use is less frequent – and that could complicate the implementation of son preference in such families and weaken their expected contrast with other families in the role of son preference for fertility outcomes. The possibility also is discussed that son preference may be supported by factors not related to family-internal norms, such as the need for all families to have a male heir for securing family wealth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we pay tribute to the late Emeritus Professor Gavin W. Jones and his outstanding contributions to the scholarship on marriage. Following a chronological assessment of his large body of work on marriage, we reflect on Gavin’s general approach to research changing marriage patterns within and across diverse regions of Asia. His approach to studying marriage went beyond the conventional demographic focus on examining shifts in age at first marriage. He showed how examining shifting patterns across different, yet interrelated aspects of marriage offered an important window to understand the broader complexities of economic and socio-political change in the region; showing why there is much more to demography beyond counting births, deaths, and migration. As two generations of demographers, we reflected how his work and approach to research continue to influence our research and engagement with the region. Gavin’s legacy extends beyond demography and Indonesian/Malay studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the launch of family planning programs in the 1960s and 1970s, there has been a divergence in fertility transition across Muslim countries. Bangladesh and Pakistan provide an interesting contrast in the pace of fertility transition. Typical of the Muslim world, both countries had a high fertility level of around 6.6 children per woman in the middle of the twentieth century. While the fertility level in Bangladesh had declined to replacement level by 2016, Pakistan's fertility rate remained well above that level, at 3.5 children per woman. Drawing on data from multiple waves of the Demographic and Health Surveys to run bivariate analyses and negative binomial regression, the paper examines the determinants of fertility differentials within and across the two countries. Pakistani women had more children than Bangladeshi women across all socio-economic variables. Differences in socio-economic conditions, cultural practices such as childbearing norms, and access to family planning between the two countries are plausible reasons for the fertility variations. The paper concludes with implications of fertility differentials in developing countries, and some recommendations on strategies to enhance planned parenthood in high fertility countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Premarital family context is influential for the transition to first marriage. This study examines the extent to which coresidence with parents and family income is associated with the transition to first marriage in South Korea. Drawing on extended coresidence perspective, the study examines the extent to which premarital coresidence with parents is associated with the transition to first marriage. Furthermore, the study examines the influence of family income and its moderating influence on the relationship between coresidence and transition to marriage. Utilising the representative data from the Youth Panel, this paper examines the effects of family income and coresidence with parents on marital formation over time using discrete-time hazard models. Results show that coresidence with parents is negatively associated with the transition to marriage. Yet, at the same time, family income has shown to be positively associated with transition to marriage. While findings of interactive effect suggest that the odds of marriage for those coresiding decreases, as family income increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study compares fertility-related behaviour in the adjacent regions of West Bengal (a state in eastern India) and Bangladesh. The starting premise of the paper is that common history and language has led to diffusion of fertility practices from West Bengal to Bangladesh. This is hypothesised to create a homogenous pattern of fertility behaviour in the bordering districts of both political regions. The study uses Demographic Health Survey (DHS) and District level Household Survey data for 1992, 2002, and 2012. Despite some reservations – as DHS is directed to produce state-level estimates, while DLHS is geared to yield district-level estimates – the similarity in sampling strategies and coverage of all districts (in West Bengal) and divisions (in Bangladesh) implies that the two data sets may be pooled, particularly in the absence of any alternatives. We tested whether fertility behaviour in (i) bordering districts differs from non-border districts in both countries, and (ii) bordering districts of both countries are similar using multi-level linear and logistic models. Outcome variables are contraceptive prevalence rate, and number of ever born children. The results reveal similarities in fertility behaviour between border divisions of Bangladesh and West Bengal, indicating possible cross-border diffusion of fertility practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is a country with a unique history of gender traditions and birth-control regulations. Traditional gender role attitudes, closely related to son preference, exert entrenched influence on the fertility intentions and behaviours of women in China. In recent years, despite the fact that employment characteristics and educational attainment of women have caught up with men, China has witnessed a resurgence of patriarchal Confucian tradition. Gender relations in the private sphere are increasingly regulated by traditional gender norms. Considering the declining fertility in China and recent fertility policy adjustments, this paper analyses the varying effects of gender role attitudes on fertility intentions of women under different birth control policies, utilising data from 1,422 questionnaires conducted in 2015 in the Shaanxi Province in northwestern China and using the Multinomial Logistic Model. Our findings imply that the relationship between women's gender role attitudes and fertility intention differs between women affected by different birth control policies. We find that among married women with one child who are restricted to one child, the more egalitarian the gender role attitude, the more likely they intend to have a second child. Among married women who have had one child and are allowed to have two children, the more egalitarian the gender role attitude, the less likely they intend to have a second child. The results also indicate that traditional gender role attitudes and norms still play an important role in Chinese women's fertility intentions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines emerging patterns of low fertility in regions of India. Using data from the National Family Health Survey, I find that, on average, women in India's low-fertility states follow an ordered life course of marriage followed by first birth, but limit higher-parity births through sterilisation at earlier ages and at higher rates. For a longitudinal perspective, I focus on the Indian state of Kerala, where the total fertility rate has been at- or below-replacement levels for more than 20 years. Women across successive birth cohorts in Kerala are marrying later, but, once married, they transition to first birth at similar rates across birth cohorts. Unlike in most of Europe and East Asia where non-marriage and substantial delays in marriage and childbearing drive low fertility, widespread female sterilisation and the restriction of childbearing to the period soon after marriage are important factors driving below-replacement fertility in regions of India. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Fertility in Singapore has been at lowest-low levels of below 1.3 since 2003. Analysis on fertility trends in Singapore has thus far focused on period fertility. Cohort fertility analysis would be useful in examining whether current cohorts of women of childbearing age are likely to catch up on fertility in the near future. This paper briefly introduces the period fertility trends in Singapore, with an analysis of age-parity specific fertility rates. It then examines, in detail, cohort fertility using official administrative data, as well as census and survey data over time. Estimates of cohort fertility show that low period fertility in Singapore is mainly due to quantum rather than tempo effects. In the absence of any fundamental value changes in society in the near future, the declining cohort fertility means that period fertility in Singapore is unlikely to experience increases to levels higher than a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long-term trend towards later and less marriage in the low-fertility countries of East and Southeast Asia has continued into the early years of the twenty-first century, and indeed accelerated in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. This paper examines the extent to which this is a general trend cutting across all educational attainment groups, and the extent to which it can be explained by increasing proportions in the educational categories characterized by higher levels of singlehood (in the case of females, the higher levels of education). In the countries where the rise in singlehood has been the steepest, changing educational composition has played a relatively minor role in the case of women. For men, in all countries examined, it has played only a minor role, or actually worked against rising singlehood. The paper examines likely reasons for these trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely documented that Thailand's National Family Planning Program (NFPP) has been successful in increasing contraceptive prevalence and reducing fertility. In this paper, we investigate to what extent setting up the NFPP between the mid 1960s and the early 1990s in local communities per se has added to this success. For this, we use data from the 1992/93 Survey on the Status of Women and Fertility in Thailand (SWAFT). We find that presence of the NFPP in a community is associated with less than two percentage points higher proportion of women with contraceptive experience at ages 15–19, to about six percentage points higher proportion at ages 35–39, and with about a 3 per cent lower completed fertility. Although these associations are relatively small, they are significant and may suggest that setting up the NFPP in local communities per se has been important for a small group of hard-to-reach women with unmet contraceptive needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After a swift decline during the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union, period fertility rates have either been stagnating or increasing in all countries of Central Asia. In this paper, I investigate the role of data artifacts, population composition effect, economic context and shifting tempo effect in explaining fertility changes in Central Asia. The analysis is primarily based on comparison of fertility data from the vital registration system with estimates from other data sources. The results show that the recent changes to be real and not a result of data artifact. The most plausible explanations are to be found in the three other non-exclusive factors (population composition effect, economic context and shifting tempo effect) that contributed jointly and simultaneously to push up the period fertility rates in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Preparation of the base population plays a substantial role in the accuracy of projections. This paper reviews analytical strategies involved in the preparation of the UN World Population Prospects to reconcile existing discrepancies between data sources and derive robust estimates of population counts, distribution, and demographic changes. The case study of India is used to illustrate the challenges and benefits of using a cohort-component population projection approach in reconstructing its population between 1950 and 2010, including the preparation of bias-free population counts and distributions by age and sex; estimation of consistent fertility and mortality trends; and integration of all demographic components for obtaining a reliable base population for projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The family planning literature considers behavioural family planning methods ‘ineffective’ because their users are not motivated to control their fertility. While this is true for the initial stages of fertility transition, studies report that urban, educated, and affluent women—propelled by a reaction against the medicalisation of the female body by Western technology—mainly use behavioural family planning methods. This elite group has the skill and knowledge to use such methods effectively. The term ‘ultramodern contraception’ has been coined to describe this phenomenon. This paper critically re-examines the ‘ultramodern contraception’ theory, and argues that it has certain limitations. Analysing three rounds of National Family Health Survey data for India, we argue that reliance on such methods may be a transient phase in the reproductive cycle of women, specifically before the desired gender parity of children is attained. Moreover, it may also be a manifestation of son preference. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

High parity has been hypothesised to lead to a shorter and less healthy life. Using the 2007 Taft Ageing Health and Fertility Survey consisting of 696 women aged 50–79, this paper examines the extent to which women's health in middle and older ages is affected by their childbearing histories. The results show that high parity (>8) is associated with a reduction of GP-rated health by 0.094 points on a scale from 1 to 10. These health reductions are four times as large as those of an extra year of age, and are robust to controlling for birth interval, age, area of residence, education, marital status, work history, economic satisfaction and surviving daughters. There is a positive but curvilinear relationship between shorter birth intervals (<2 years) and GP-rated health accounting for socio-demographic factors. Our analysis suggests that parity and birth intervals, along with socio-demographic characteristics, affect women's well-being in later life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents empirical evidence to support the labour demand theory of rising reproductive fertility in colonial Indonesia. According to this theory, birth rates in nineteenth-century Java rose as a direct result of the labour burden imposed upon women and their children by the Cultivation System of compulsory labour services. The theory was conceived in the 1970s as a reaction against the assumption that rapid population growth in colonial Indonesia must have reflected improvements in economic and health conditions under Dutch rule. The difficulty of testing the labour demand theory empirically, together with its counterintuitive quality and its ideological origins, led it to be sceptically received. However, newly-assembled statistical data from Minahasa-one of the few areas outside Java where compulsory cultivation services were introduced in the nineteenth century-suggest that the theory is in fact correct. The existence of a positive link between labour demand and fertility helps explain not only the paradox of population growth without rapid economic growth or public health improvements in nineteenth-century Java, but also the 'involutionary' cycle of agricultural intensification, population growth and impoverishment which seems to be a recurrent feature of Southeast Asian history. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the effect of childcare leave on married women's fertility in Japan, based on data from the 2007 National Survey on Work and Family. The analysis takes into account how childcare leave influences fertility through its intermediate effects on women's selection into the labor market, job tenure, wages and the opportunity cost of children. Results indicate a strong effect of childcare leave on years of continuous job tenure with the same employer, and on predicted wages for full-time working women. Taking childcare leave for the first child increases the percentage progressing from first to second birth by six percentage points. There is also clear evidence that lowering the opportunity cost of children increases fertility, net of the effect of childcare leave, which affects fertility via the opportunity cost of children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mongolia has never been a member of the USSR, but the collapse of the Soviet Union deeply affected this country. While a growing body of literature documents the consequences of this collapse on fertility and family formation behaviour for the former socialist countries in Central and Eastern Europe, the Baltic countries, Russia and Ukraine, and more recently, countries in Central Asia, Mongolia received only limited attention. This paper aims to fill this gap. As a consequence of the transition to democracy and a market economy, Mongolia experienced an impressive fertility reduction; total fertility fell from 4.6 children per woman to 2.5 between 1989 and 1993. Through the application of the synthetic parity progression ratios method to the 1998 Reproductive Health Survey data, this study analyses the reproductive responses of Mongolian couples in a context of deep social and economic changes. Paralleling other ex-socialist countries, it is shown that the transition affected the reproductive behaviour in Mongolia. Marriage declined discernibly for Mongolian women, but was shortly followed by a first birth. The changes took place at parities higher than two. These results suggest that people adjust their reproductive behaviour according to strongly-rooted cultural values that balance the standard economic motivations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimates of Thai crude birth and death rates date from 1920, when the former was around 20 per thousand higher than the latter, implying natural increase of two per cent per annum. Such disequilibrium cannot have been the norm over the long-term historical past, when population growth must have been comparatively slow. This paper explores the bases for likely past relative equilibrium between Siamese birth and death rates, then seeks to explain the disequilibrium apparent by 1920. Classic demographic transition theory postulates initially high birth and death rates, this equilibrium eventually being broken by falling mortality. In Thailand, however, there is likely to have been both significant mortality decline and appreciable fertility increase after 1850, as the virtual elimination of indigenous warfare, rapid growth of the export rice economy and the demise of slavery and corvee labour created a new domestic environment. Characterized by more dispersed, often frontier, settlement, this environment was unprecedentedly sedate and settled, afforded ordinary households a previously unknown level of control over their resources of labour, and generated optimism about prospects for the next generation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the accuracy of the United Nations' population projections since the late 1950s for six South-east Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. The study uses available projected and estimated age-structured data as well as published assumptions on fertility and mortality trends. A decomposition of the total projection errors into base errors (wrong estimates of demographic conditions at the beginning of projection interval) and change errors (wrong assumptions about the trends) shows that the base errors have generally been decreasing over time presumably as a consequence of improving demographic monitoring systems. The change errors, however, do not seem to decline over time. This seems to be due to a number of country-specific cultural and political factors whose effect was not anticipated as well as to a lack of good theories with predictive power. These findings suggest the need to give more explicit attention to the treatment of uncertainty in future population projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Korea has experienced marital transition since the 1920s, but recent data reveal rapid changes in marital behaviour and norms. Analysts usually relate these to the second fertility transition, fast growing gender equality, economic developments, and ideational changes, pointing to the necessity of understanding the process of change in marital behaviour in the context of societal transformation as well as demographic transition. With this background in mind, this paper constructs refined measures, such as age-specific first marriage rates and total first marriage rates, for different time periods and for different cohorts to present a clearer picture of marriage trends. The results are then examined in relation to various social and demographic factors, a procedure which provides an indirect check on the validity and usefulness of the method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the role of induced abortions in the fertility decline in South Korea and estimates the covariates of type of pregnancy termination in recent years. The use of induced abortions have played an important role in fertility control in South Korea, even under nearly universal access to contraceptive services and restrictive law on induced abortions. Among pregnancies of women in reproductive ages in 2003, 23 per cent ended in induced abortions and ten per cent ended in spontaneous abortions or stillbirths. Pregnancies of women who marry at age 30 or later and who are employed have a high risk of ending in spontaneous abortions or stillbirths. Pregnancies that are not wanted as well as the pregnancies of women who are employed and live in small cities have high risk of ending in induced abortions. Reproductive health programmes need to make special efforts to minimize unwanted pregnancies as well as to protect wanted pregnancies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Broad-based social changes such as fertility decline partly result from modernization in developing countries such as Yemen. The transition to small family norms are often spearheaded by a small group of innovators or change agents called demographic innovators. Demographic innovators often sharply differ from the rest in terms of a number of demographic characteristics. The purpose of this paper is to identify the presence and magnitude of the size of demographic innovators in the Republic of Yemen, a country at the very early stage of demographic transition. This study uses data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), 1991–92 and 1997 conducted in Yemen. Latent class analysis is used to identify the presence and size of the demographic innovator class. About three to four per cent of the sample respondents belong to the demographic innovators class. The members of the demographic innovator group are highly likely to prefer small ideal family size than are the rest. They are also more likely to have ever used modern birth control methods than the rest. We discuss the theoretical as well policy implications of our findings for Yemen, which has one of the highest fertility rates in the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Immediately after World War Two, Japan's fertility declined by more than 50 per cent in 10 years. This unprecedented decline of fertility resulted in a substantial shift in personal resource allocation away from childrearing and induced a rapid accumulation of physical capital in the 1950s, which provided a strong base for achieving Japan's phenomenal economic growth from the late 1950s to the early 1970s. By heavily drawing upon two simulation models, this paper attempts to show how large the demographic bonus was in post-war Japan and how serious the demographic onus is likely to be over the period 2000–2025. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compared to other settings, COVID-19 infection and death rates in Hong Kong were very low until 2022, due to top-down interventions (e.g. quarantines, 'mask mandates') and community activation. However, in addition to these epidemiological circumstances, Hong Kong has also undergone significant social and political change stemming from the social movement beginning in 2019 through the enacting, and aftermath, of the National Security Law. We draw on registered birth and marriage data from 2015 through 2021 to explore how fertility and nuptiality changed after the social movement followed by the first four waves of the COVID pandemic. We describe how fertility and marriage rates have changed in Hong Kong and to what extent the changes are associated with the social movement and the COVID pandemic. We further disaggregate the fertility and nuptiality trends by Hong Kong-born and non-Hong Kong-born population, with a specific focus on migrants from the Mainland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bangladesh, one of the world's poorest countries, has experienced a dramatic decline in fertility since 1985, with a decline in the total fertility rate from 5.5–2.1. International researchers have debated the reasons for this rapid decline, with some studies attributing it primarily to family planning programmes and others pointing at the simultaneous increase in the education of women and other socioeconomic factors. Using data from seven-rounds of the Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS), we comprehensively review fertility trends by reconstructing cohort and period fertility indicators by educational attainment. Multilevel regression shows a robust negative association between fertility and educational attainment at the individual and community levels. Pathway's analysis reveals that female education has a significant effect on declining fertility desires dominating all other effects. Increased women's education and the associated diffusion of smaller desired family size might be the primary factor driving the impressive fertility decline in Bangladesh. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Births outside of marriage are comparatively rare in East Asia, but numbers appear to be rising. Such fertility tends to be concentrated among lower educational and socioeconomic groups which can entrench pre-existing inequalities in systems where such 'non-traditional' family forms are penalised. Most research in this area, however, has focused on the relationship between marriage and first birth. Using a large microdataset from Hong Kong, we explore the relationship between marriage and childbearing across the life-course. In particular, we examine the frequency of marriage between parities, and the various predictors of marrying (or not). Rather than 'life-long' cohabiters, we find roughly half of all couples who have a first birth outside of marriage do, in fact, marry before having their second child. The study concludes with some exploratory reasons for the apparently strong continuation of the relationship between marriage and childbearing in Hong Kong and in East Asia more generally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study estimates the impact of women's college education on their fertility-related outcomes by taking advantage of a natural experiment known as the graduation quota program that massively expanded women's opportunities to attend college in South Korea. After the 1979 military coup, the military regime in South Korea ordered all public and private colleges to expand their college admission levels by 30 per cent in 1981 and 50 per cent in 1982. This study implemented instrumental variable (IV) analysis using the Korean Longitudinal Survey of Women and Families (KLoWF). Specifically, our IV analysis uses the birth cohorts that were differently exposed to this sudden and exogenous policy change as an instrumental variable to identify the longer-term effects of college education on women's fertility-related outcomes. It is found that college education caused those women who were induced to attend college by the graduation quota program to have fewer children. Furthermore, this study finds that this impact can be partially explained by women being less likely to get married. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 1990 and 2015, several post-communist countries experienced a decline in fertility, followed by a rise in the period fertility rate of roughly one child per woman. Mongolia is a good case-in-point. Its period fertility dropped further after the demise of socialism in 1990 but has increased again since 2005 and fluctuated around 3.0 children per woman in recent years. Political factors have been suggested as the explanation of these changes. This research investigates whether demographic factors also provide explanations for the period fertility changes in Mongolia. We study this through reconstructing the fertility rates, by age and birth order, from data collected by several social and demographic surveys. The fertility rates are adjusted to examine the role of tempo effects in recent fertility changes. The results show that the demographic influences, in particular childbearing postponement and recuperation, have contributed to recent changes in fertility trends and levels in Mongolia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the progress achieved in transformational development in socioeconomic domains, in Oman, like other Gulf Cooperation Council states, fertility rates are higher compared with those in other Middle East nations. Reproductive behaviour often varies geographically; consequently, analysing and modelling this phenomenon should be conducted at subnational and finer levels to capture spatial heterogeneity patterns. In this research, data from the last Omani census are used and local indicators of spatial associations (LISA) as well as spatial econometric models have been employed to examine the effects of sociocultural factors, particularly foreign female domestic workers, on local fertility variations. Remarkable spatial differences were observed in the effects of structural covariates on fertility rates. Several spatial clusters indicate a correlation between higher fertility rates and higher values of other explanatory sociocultural variables. Furthermore, the subnational variations of fertility rates are significantly explained by geographical and sociocultural factors, such a surban-rural settlement, education, female employment in governmental sectors, unemployed women, and the proportion of foreign female domestic workers. The findings also reveal that the rural and Bedouin communities, particularly in the internal governorates, not only displayed higher fertility rates, but also had more unemployed women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of government policy in fertility change has been a central inquiry in understanding global demographic changes in the last half century. We return to this inquiry with longitudinal data for over 150 countries from 1976 to 2013 and use fixed-effects models to address common methodological concerns. Our results reveal that while government anti-natalist policies fail to show clear effects for all countries included, they are associated with significantly lower fertility in Asia and Latin America, two regions that have seen the most rapid fertility decline. For pro-natalist policies, which are becoming more popular in recent years, we detect only short-term positive effects, and effects limited to countries where fertility has not sunk below the ultra-low level of 1.4 children per woman. Combined, these results suggest that government policies are important in global fertility change, though the policy impacts vary by geographic location, timing, and fertility level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study focused on the effects of the neighbourhood on the fertility outcomes among marriage immigrant wives in Taiwan. In particular, we investigated the effects of the proportion of marriage immigrants in the neighbourhood and ethnic composition of the neighbours on fertility behaviours of foreign wives. The study further explored whether and to what extent commercialised cross-border marriages moderate the relationships. Micro-data from the 2013 Living Demand of Foreign and Mainland Spouses and administrative data for 21 cities and counties were utilised in this study. We found that immigrant wives in an area with a higher proportion of marriage immigrants were likely to have higher fertility and shorter intervals between births. Immigrant wives who married through a broker were likely to have lower fertility if they were living in a neighbourhood with a higher proportion of marriage immigrants. The proportion of immigrants from Mainland China in the neighbourhood was negatively associated with fertility among immigrant wives from Mainland China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although Japan has entered a phase of population decline due to decades of low fertility, studies on the determinants of fertility choices among Japanese couples remain sparse. Previous studies, mostly conducted in Europe, suggest that men’s active involvement in household labour may promote childbearing. We tested whether men’s participation in childcare and housework has an influence on parity progression in Japan. Our results show a positive relationship between men’s participation in childcare and parity progression but no consistent relationship between men’s participation in housework and parity progression. We also observed that other factors such as the sex composition of existing children influences couples’ decision to have another child. Our findings add to the scarce literature on Japanese people’s fertility behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using General Social Survey data from Japan and the US (N = 5101), we examine the effect of non-standard or non-regular work status on men’s fertility. We employ a cross-national comparative approach to explore how this relationship differs both within and across the two countries. Consistent with features of the Japanese context which make it challenging for non-regular workers to realise the breadwinner role we find a negative effect of non-standard work status on men’s fertility in Japan, but not the US. Specifically, Japanese men employed as non-regular workers have the lowest chances of having a child. Non-regular work status has no such effect on men’s fertility in the US. We also find that the difference in the non-standard work effect between the two countries can be accounted for by differences in the effect of marriage, which illustrates the close connection between marriage and fertility in Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taiwan has one of the lowest fertility rates in Asia. High direct and indirect costs of childbearing have been identified as key drivers behind this at the macro-level, but little is known about the mechanism of these influences at the individual-level. In 32 qualitative interviews with parents in Taipei, we sought to explore the salient factors for couples in their decisions about having further children. We identified a tension between gendered expectations of childcare responsibilities and women's desire to ‘build a life of one's own’ – a life with options and the freedom to pursue career and social aspirations. Based on our grounded analysis, we reflect on the high relevance of individualisation, risk society and incomplete gender revolution theories for understanding why many couples – and women in particular – choose to cease childbearing at parity one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When China’s decades-long one-child policy was replaced by a two-child policy, the circumstances under which women intend to have a second child become of great concern. This study examines the determinants of women’s second birth intention, as well as how the intention changes over time alongside changes in other life circumstances. Using panel data from the Jiangsu Fertility Intention and Behaviour Study (JFIBS, 2007, 2010), we find that women with more economic and familial/social resources are more likely to want a second child, while women who work in non-agriculture sectors and have higher decision-making power in the family are less inclined to have a second child. We also find that a sizeable increase of family income encourages women to upwardly revise their intention towards a desire for two children. The role of policy change on Chinese women’s second birth intention is also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South Korea experienced below replacement fertility for the first time in 1983, which also marked the point from which fertility rates continued to decline over the next 20 years to reach a low of 1.2 in 2003. In spite of recent pronatalist policies, the fertility rate has remained near this level and has not increased appreciably. The reasons for sustained low fertility in South Korea are complex and solutions remain elusive. One option that has been suggested is reunification with North Korea, which could address the eventual decline in the population and mitigate the increasing proportion of the elderly. Although the conditions surrounding the German reunification experience were vastly different than what Korea will likely undergo, it is informative to look at Germany as a guide to the demographic parameters of reunification. Three projection models for 2015–2050 are presented; even the highest fertility models show that reunification will not be the answer to population restructuring already underway in South Korea as a result of sustained low fertility. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Drawing on data from the Korea Labour and Income Panel Study 1998−2008, this article attempts to assess the impact of female labour force participation on childbirth decisions in South Korea. To control for the dynamic processes through which soon-to-be mothers choose to get out of the labour force to give birth, empirical datasets using three different birth-month lag scenarios are examined: no lag; five-month lag; and eight-month lag. In addition parity-specific effects for the first and second childbirth are evaluated in consideration of previous findings showing different effects by birth order. Results suggest that, regarding the first birth, female labour force participation does not seem to have significantly diminished transition probability to first birth. Female labour force participation, however, appears to affect the second childbirth decision in a negative direction, although the impacts are not as great as have been widely publicised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United Nations' (UN) World Population Prospects are perhaps the most widely used population projections in both academic and policy discourses. In this short research note, we examine six advanced Asian economies, and compare the fertility assumptions used by the UN with those derived from local statistical offices (LSOs). We identify a significant divergence between them. When translated into total projected population size of younger age groups (0–14 years), the use of the UN rather than the LSO ‘medium’ projection can increase the total projected population size by up to 50% by 2040. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Limited studies document the fertility changes in Central Asia. Using survey and official data, this study describes the fertility changes since 1980 in Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan. I first consider the swift decline in fertility in the 1980s and 1990s through the analysis of Synthetic Parity Progression Ratios (SPPRs). SPPRs show that women still have at least one child despite economic difficulties and that the end of communism affected more the transition to higher-order births. These results are however influenced by economic and demographic factors specific to each country. I investigate then the fertility upturn that is observed since the early 2000s—an issue neglected so far by demographers. Results from the analysis of official and household data show that in each country, the recent fertility increase resulted from the increase of distinct birth orders and was concentrated in specific ethnic groups. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Education, unlike most other determinants of social status, causes a significant delay in fertility timing and depresses fertility outcomes. It also operates as a self-reinforcing status-seeking spiral mechanism, with important consequences for aggregate fertility over time. Later-born cohorts of women, in order to maintain a given position in the education distribution compared to their same-age peers, must attain increasingly higher levels of education. This implies that the process of status-seeking is having increasingly strong effects in terms of reducing global fertility levels. This can be particularly important for Asian nations where schooling levels have risen rapidly in recent decades and there has been an increase in the ages at childbearing and a depression of fertility outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The article discusses the use of demography theory for prediction of the future fertility level of post-demographic transition societies. Topics discussed include rates of childlessness and lowest fertility, planning for family formation, and study of contemporary social theory in the understanding of demographic change in Asia.

Based on a longitudinal study in rural India, this article examines whether (i) women in unmet need are more likely to use contraception compared to those in no need; (ii) meeting unmet need can reduce unwanted pregnancies; (iii) contraceptive intentions with fertility preferences can enhance the utility of unmet need. The study covered 6303 women interviewed in 1998 and followed-up in 2002 in the states of Bihar, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. During the four years, one-fifth of the women transited from unmet to met need in Bihar compared to three-fifths in Maharashtra and half in Tamil Nadu. As acceptance of contraception becomes the norm, women in unmet need tend to become a selective group with less urge to use contraception. For a population in the transitional stage of contraceptive adoption, use of unmet need is beneficial and useful in predicting unwanted pregnancies. Further, contraceptive intentions with fertility preferences enhance the scope of unmet need. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Singapore's labour force participation rates are at high levels. Age-specific rates, especially of men, have approached those of developed countries. The current very low total fertility rate of 1.25 would have major implications for Singapore's labour supply and economy in a closed population. Multi-pronged approaches such as measures to increase fertility, increase labour force participation, and to augment the local workforce with migrants are discussed. In the context of Singapore's physical land constraint, continued growth in the labour force in the long term would be challenging. Future gross domestic product growth is likely to be more sustainable via labour productivity growth. Identifying new niche areas of growth and having a nimble and quality workforce would become more important than labour force growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]