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In this article, we empirically investigate the industry determinants of value creation through Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) and the division of M&A gains for a sample of horizontal acquisitions in Europe during the period 1997-2008. We calculate the combined abnormal return around deal announcement to proxy for M&A value creation. Our results show that industry sales concentration and the ratio of the combined target and bidder size relative to the minimum efficient scale in the corresponding industry are significantly negatively associated with M&A value creation. The relation between industry sales growth and M&A gains is U-shaped. The extent of foreign competition within the industry, industry technological intensity and industry deregulation bear no significant association with M&A wealth effects, however. Finally, the data reveal that the division of M&A gains between target and bidder investors is determined by firm and deal characteristics rather than by industry conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates how the ownership and the selection procedure of firms operating in the Local Public Transport (LPT) sector affect their productivity. In order to compare different institutional regimes, we carry out a comparative analysis of 77 companies operating in large European cities over the period 1997 to 2006. This allows us to consider firms selected either through competitive tendering or negotiated procedures. Retrieving the residuals we obtain a measure of Total Factor Productivity (TFP), which we regress on firm and city characteristics. We find that totally or partially public firms display lower productivity than privately owned firms. Moreover, firms selected through competitive tendering display higher TFP. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This article analyses the impact of loan market competition on the interest rates applied by euro area banks to loans during the period 1994–2004, using a novel measure of competition called the Boone indicator. We find evidence that stronger competition implies significantly lower spreads between bank and market interest rates for most loan market products, in line with expectations. This result implies that stronger competition causes both lower bank interest rates and a stronger pass-through of market rate changes into bank rates. Evidence of the latter is also presented by our Error Correction Model (ECM) for bank rates. Further, banks compensate income losses from increased loan market competition by offering lower deposit rates. Our findings with respect to the loan market rates have important monetary policy implications, as they suggest that measures to promote competition in the European banking sector are likely to render the monetary policy transmission mechanism more effective. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

To identify and target lagging regions policy makers require statistics to be produced at regional level. In many instances it is not possible simply to compare regional-level statistics produced by Member State national statistical offices as there is variation in the methods and assumptions used to produce them. Capital stock statistics at the national level have been available for most countries of the EU27 for some time, but statistics at the regional level are absent for almost all countries. Where they do exist the methods used to produce them are not consistent across countries. This article assesses the feasibility of producing comparable estimates of the capital stock at NUTS2 regional level for the EU27 and makes some initial estimates. The article outlines the method and data employed, and the techniques used to fill missing values. The approach is a Perpetual Inventory Method (PIM) based on that outlined in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Manual on capital estimation, and the data employed were taken from Eurostat or other publicly available sources wherever possible. The article analyses the robustness of the capital stock estimates produced, as well as their impact on productivity analysis, and suggests how they can be improved in future updates. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this article, we empirically investigate the effect of Research and Development (R&D) flows on patent flows around the world. We do this using an unbalanced panel consisting primarily of Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries that have both patent and R&D expenditure information broken down by domestic and foreign sources. Our analysis shows that even among a fairly homogeneous group of countries, the sources of patents and R&D differ substantially. Using a dynamic panel framework, we find that domestic R&D per capita increases domestic patents per capita only for the European Patent Convention (EPC) countries that already have a decentralized approach to innovation. Foreign R&D per capita increases foreign patents per capita in all countries even though foreign R&D constitutes a very small fraction of total R&D. We find that some of these differences can be attributed to the locations of the patent applications, including those to the European Patent Office (EPO), United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) and triadic patent applications to the EPO, USPTO and Japan Patent Office (JPO) simultaneously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article contributes to the literature on price convergence in Europe by investigating the existence of stochastic and deterministic convergence of car prices in the EU15 countries. We apply recently developed econometric techniques that allow for multiple structural breaks to an up-to-date dataset. We find considerable evidence of both types of convergence in our sample of countries and car models, therefore suggesting a tendency for relative prices to equalize over time. In addition, we find evidence regarding the importance in this convergence process of both legislative changes taking place in the years 1996 and 2002, and the implementation of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study examines the degree of price-integration of equity indices between the major markets of Africa, namely Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Namibia and South Africa with the European markets of London and Paris. Vector Autoregressive and Autoregressive Distributed Lag methods reveal that African markets are largely price-segmented. The only markets that are price-integrated have shared economic and financial institutions, such as Namibia and South Africa, and Egypt, Tunisia and France. The evidence suggests that development policy should be focussed on enhancing existing institutions rather than embarking prematurely on regional integration. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We derive internal consistency restrictions on short-, medium- and long-term oil price forecasts. We then analyse whether oil price forecasts extracted from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB) satisfy these internal consistency restrictions. We find that neither short-term forecasts are consistent with medium-term forecasts nor that medium-term forecasts are consistent with long-term forecasts. Using a more complex expectation formation structure featuring a distributed lag structure, however, we find stronger evidence of internal consistency of medium-term forecasts with long-term forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study estimates the size and value of unpaid family caretaking activities at a European level. While at a country level several studies are available, a comprehensive evaluation for Europe as a whole was missing so far, mainly due to data limitations. This article fills this gap using a method that merges the information of the European Survey of Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) with the Harmonised European Time Use Surveys (HETUS). Monetary values of unpaid family domestic work and unpaid family childcare work are obtained applying both the opportunity cost and the market replacement approaches. For Europe as a whole, the total value of these activities ranges between 17% and 31.6% of the EU Gross Domestic Product (GDP), depending on the applied methodology. The national values of these activities are discussed and an interpretation of the country and gender differentials in family caretaking costs is given in terms of differences in culture, economic development and welfare state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the profitability of several simple technical trading rules for 16 European stock markets over the 1990 to 2006 period. Our results indicate that increasing moving average rules indeed have predictive power being able to discern recurring price patterns for profitable trading, even after accounting for the effects of data snooping bias. To assess the profitability of different technical trading rules and strategies, we adopt the White's (2000) Reality Check (RC) test that quantifies the data snooping bias and adjusts for its effects. Our empirical results also support the hypothesis that technical trading rules can outperform the buy and hold strategy after accounting for transaction costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article we want to shed light on two aspects of income mobility: relative total income mobility using the estimator by Fields and Ok (1999) and equalization of long-run incomes measured by the index of Fields (2009). The cross country comparison shows a negative relationship between total relative mobility and long-run income equalization, this result is contrary to the intuition given by Shorrocks (1978a) who stated that higher relative mobility will cause higher equalization of incomes when the accounting period is extended. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This article examines shifts in labour productivity growth in the US and in Europe between 1970 and 2007 based on econometric tests of structural breaks. Additionally, it makes use of time-series-based projections of labour productivity growth up to 2009 in order to detect breaks depending on confidence intervals of the projections. The identification of structural breaks in the US labour productivity growth is far from obvious. A statistically significant break is found in the late 1990s only if at least the 97.5th percentile of forecasts materializes in the future, which means that despite a clear pick up in productivity growth in the second half of the 1990s, the size of the hump is not large enough compared with past variations to make this change a statistically significant break. However, a significant break point is detected in the mid-1990s for the difference in labour productivity growth between the US and the EU15, even when controlling for the convergence of Europe towards the US productivity levels that has contributed to higher European performance in the early catch up phase. Finally, within Europe, the accumulation of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) capital seems to be related to differences in the shifts in structural labour productivity growth across countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyses financial markets' reaction to European Central Bank's (ECB) communication. We apply a novel indicator that quantifies the contents of the ECB's introductory statements and allows disentangling ECB statements on prices, the real and the monetary sector. We provide evidence that it matters what issue the ECB is speaking about: especially, the ECB's statements on price developments represent important news to financial markets. It also matters when the ECB affects markets: communication drives maturities above 4 months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing interest in the analysis and measurement of social exclusion, to complement the static and dynamic literature on income poverty. On theoretical grounds, social exclusion and income poverty are seen as different processes, but with closely interrelated dynamics. However, our empirical understanding of the way these two processes dynamically interact at the individual level is still very limited. To shed some light on the issue, we use a dynamic bivariate probit model, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and Wooldridge (2005)-type initial conditions. Both the first- and second-order Markov dynamics are examined. We estimate the model using the Italian sample of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP), waves 1–8, and find a sizable extent of state dependence in both poverty and social exclusion. Moreover, there are dynamic cross-effects implying that poverty and social exclusion are mutually reinforcing. Social policies aimed at eradicating poverty and avoiding individuals’ social and economic marginalization should take these interaction effects explicitly into account. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This article is the first that applies a new measure of competition, the Boone indicator, to the banking industry. This approach is able to measure competition of bank market segments, such as the loan market, whereas many well-known measures of competition can consider the entire banking market only. Like most other model-based measures, this approach ignores differences in bank product quality and design, as well as the attractiveness of innovations. We measure competition on the lending markets in the five major EU countries as well as, for comparison, the UK, the US and Japan. Our findings indicate that over the period 1994-2004 the US had the most competitive loan market, whereas overall loan markets in Germany and Spain were among the best competitive in the EU. The Netherlands occupied a more intermediate position, whereas in Italy competition declined significantly over time. The French, Japanese and UK loan markets were generally less competitive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

World economies, and especially European ones, have become strongly interconnected in the last decade and a joint modelling is required. We propose here the use of copulae to build flexible multivariate distributions, since they allow for a rich dependence structure and more flexible marginal distributions that better fit the features of empirical data, such as leptokurtosis. We use our approach to forecast industrial production series in the core European Monetary Union (EMU) countries and we provide evidence that the copula-Vector Autoregression (VAR) model outperforms or at worst compares similarly to normal VAR models, keeping the same computational tractability of the latter approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides a detailed empirical analysis of quarterly frequency dynamics in macroeconomic aggregates in 12 countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). It shows that business fluctuations in CEE countries are, in general, more pronounced than in developed ones, and are of similar size as in other emerging market economies. Private consumption is particularly volatile. Relative to major developed economies government spending is dominantly procyclical, and net exports are strongly countercyclical. The most frequent country outliers are the high inflation countries of Bulgaria, Romania and Russia, especially in labour market, price and exchange rate variables. Excluding these countries from the sample makes many of the observed patterns in cyclical dynamics more homogenous, and broadly similar to ones established in developed economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We empirically analyse convergence of European producer and consumer prices for diesel fuel and investigate the role of excise taxation. By comparing the speed of convergence of prices and taxes we find a surprisingly fast speed of convergence for consumer prices. While this can in part be explained by fuel tourism, the main driving force is producer price dynamics. Tax convergence contributes weakly to price convergence, but the overall effect is to slow down consumer relative to producer price convergence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To increase labour market participation is a major challenge currently faced by the EU, and attracting women into the labour force appears as a promising avenue to do so. Therefore, a clear understanding of what the factors influencing the evolution of female participation rates are in Europe is essential for a successful design of policy measures aiming at increasing participation rates. This article provides empirical evidence on the role that institutions have played in determining participation rates of women in the European labour markets. Our findings discard any doubt on the influence of institutions on women's participation in Europe. The strictness of labour market institutions negatively affects female participation rates. We also find that institutional features aimed at reconciling motherhood with professional life such as maternity leave schemes and part-time work favour participation rates of prime-age women. Additionally, fertility rates and education enrolment have been relevant for the evolution of participation rates during the sample period considered for prime-age and young females, respectively, while cohort effects drive the developments of older females. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International research has shown that schooling enhances within-groups wage dispersion. This assessment is typically based on private sector data and, up to date, the inequality implications of schooling have not been documented for the public sector. This article uses recent data from eight European countries to explicitly take into account differences between the private and public sectors. Using quantile regression, the article describes the effects of schooling on the location and shape of the conditional wage distribution in each sector. While the average impact of schooling on wages is similar across sectors, the impact of schooling on within-groups dispersion is found to be substantially larger in the private sector than in the public sector. This finding warns that the effects of the European educational expansion on overall within-groups dispersion may be lower than previously thought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we aim to model the level and structure of the dependence between the world's leading stock markets and those of the emerging market groups - Europe, Latin America and Far East. To this end we use a mixture model of Gaussian, Gumbel and Gumbel survival copulas. Our results indicate that none of the pairs of stock markets exhibit a right-tail dependence structure. All valid models exhibit a mixture of Gaussian and left-tail dependence structure. Our findings imply that Gaussian dependence structure is dominant in most of the models. The emerging equity markets in the European region exhibit the most significant dependence structure with the world leaders. Furthermore, most of the emerging equity markets have a significant dependence structure with the US stock market. We further compare our findings with the results of the conventional correlation coefficients and conclude the importance of using copula models in analysing the portfolio diversification opportunities. Our findings overall indicate two important remarks: First, the copula models reveal better indicators for global investors to establish a diversified portfolio; Second, international equity markets exhibit significant dependence, which leaves a smaller opportunity to benefit from international portfolio diversification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyses the intra-family distribution of paid-work time in five European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK). To that end, we formulate a collective model, which allows us to characterize the efficient labour supply decisions of each spouse. This two-equation model is then simultaneously estimated by using national panel data drawn from the European Community Household Panel-ECHP (1994-2001). Empirical results clearly show that, in all sample countries, the labour supply of wives is affected by own wages, household and own nonlabour incomes and the number of children, whereas evidence for husbands differs across countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent literature makes a distinction between 'voluntary' and 'involuntary' early retirement, where 'involuntary' early retirement results from employment constraints rather than from a preference for leisure relative to work. This article analyses 'voluntary' and 'involuntary' early retirement based on international microdata covering 19 industrialized countries. The results show that 'involuntary' early retirement is particularly widespread in Continental Europe. Countries facing economic recessions and having strict employment protection legislation have higher shares of 'involuntary' retirements among early retirees. Generous early retirement provisions of the social security system do not only make 'voluntary' early retirement more attractive for individuals, but also induce firms to push more employees to retire early. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the effect of results of football matches on the stock market performance of football teams. We analyse 1274 matches of eight teams in the national and European competition during 2000-2004. We find that the stock market response is significant and positive for victories and negative for defeats. The response is significantly stronger in the case of defeat. The response is stronger for matches in the European competition than for those in the national competition. Unexpected results have a stronger impact for European matches than expected ones but this is not the case in the national competition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates whether there has been a structural increase in financial market integration in nine European countries and the US in the period 1980 to 2003. We employ a GARCH model with a smoothly time-varying correlation to estimate the date of change and the speed of the transition between the low and high correlation regimes. Our test produces strong evidence of greater comovement across the board for both stock markets and government bond markets. Dates of change and speeds of adjustment vary widely across country linkages. Stock market integration is a more gradual process than bond market integration. The impact of European monetary union (EMU) is rather limited, as it has mainly affected the timing of bond market correlation gains (but hardly their size) and has had little discernible effect on stock market integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article evaluates the economic performance of European railways over the period 1972 to 1999. The cost structure of the railway industry is analysed using a stochastic frontier approach estimated within the framework of a translog cost system. The results confirm that European railways experience significant cost increases due to inefficient behaviour. In contrast to previous studies, however, the estimates indicate a much greater role for allocative rather than technical inefficiency. Overall, inefficiencies can essentially be explained by the supply of excess capacity and by the over-employment of labour inputs. Regarding productivity, it appears to be technological progress, and not levels of efficiency or scale economies, that provide the most convincing explanation for variance in growth rates within the sample. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quality of service (QoS) is of major economic significance in natural monopoly infrastructure industries. In this article, we present an efficiency analysis of electricity distribution networks from seven European countries. We apply the stochastic frontier analysis method to multi-output translog input distance function models to estimate cost efficiency and scale economies. We show that introducing the quality dimension into the analysis affects estimated efficiency significantly, especially that smaller utilities' efficiency seems to decrease. Our results emphasize that QoS should be an integrated part of efficiency and economic analysis of regulated natural monopolies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pension plans and funds represent a substantial part of the welfare systems in both Europe and Spain. One of the most important factors in the choice of a plan or fund is the performance it obtains. In view of the influence that fees have on performance, the objective of this study is to analyse the variables that determine the management and custodial fees of individual pension plans. The Spanish market for pension plans and funds sets legal caps on these fees, and at the same time the majority of them are commercialized and managed by financial institutions, which can in turn generate a conflict of interests. In this article, we estimate models with censured variables and our findings show how the average investment per plan, the legal status and the size of the management company to which the plan belongs, and the style of the plan are all relevant determinants of the management fee. In turn, the custodial fee is determined by the legal status of the custodial company, the size, the return and the type of plan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A panel data set for six countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia) is used to estimate money demand with panel cointegration methods over the recent disinflation period. The basic money demand model is able to convincingly explain the long-run dynamics of M2 in the selected countries. However, money demand is found to have been significantly determined by the euro area interest rates and the exchange rate against the euro, which indicates possible instability of money demand functions in the Central and Eastern European countries. Therefore, direct inflation targeting is an appropriate monetary regime before the eventual adoption of the euro. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a general equilibrium endogenous growth model of a monetary union between two countries that differ in economic dimension and level of development. By solving transitional dynamics towards the steady state, we examine the impact of fiscal shocks that may lead to excessive deficits. Results suggest that the individual and the whole impact of such deficits depend on which country they occur. In such context, we argue that the small and less developed country should be allowed to temporarily run an excessive deficit, in order to improve economic convergence within the union. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses the ideas creation model that was initially formulated by Romer and later generalized and empirically applied by Jones. In particular, we generalize Jones' model to include catching up to a technological frontier, which improves the empirical results for European countries, and ensures convergence to the technological frontier in the steady state [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent developments in time series analysis allow proper modelling of nonlinearities in economic and financial variables. A growing body of research was dedicated to investigation of potential nonlinearities in conditional mean of many economic and financial variables, mainly concentrating in developed economies. However, nonlinearities in financial variables in developing economies have not been fully examined yet. In this article we investigate potential nonlinearity and cyclical behaviour of stock returns in Europe's two largest emerging stock markets, mainly in the Greek and Turkish stock markets. Specifically, we use STAR family models, which allow to model nonlinearities in the conditional mean, for modelling monthly returns on stock exchange indices of the Athens Stock Exchange and Istanbul Stock Exchange. Although we find no nonlinearity in conditional variance, we do find strong evidence in favour of nonlinear adjustment of stock returns. It is found that allowing for nonlinearity in conditional mean results in a superior model and provides good out-of-sample forecasts, which contradicts to efficient market hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The theoretically necessary and sufficient condition for the correspondence between 'revealed' comparative advantage and pre-trade relative prices derived by Hillman (1980) is analysed empirically for virtually all countries of the world over an extended period of time. This yields 10 stylized facts, including that (i) violations of the Hillman condition are small as a share of the number of observations, but substantial as a share of the value of world exports, (ii) violations occur relatively frequently in the period 1970-1984 and more rarely in the period 1985-1997 and (iii) violations occur foremost in primary product and natural resource intensive sectors and for countries in Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe. An additional bonus of verifying the Hillman condition in empirical research is its ability to identify erroneously classified trade flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines inflation dynamics in Europe. Econometric specification tests with pooled European data are used to compare the empirical performance of the New Classical, New Keynesian and Hybrid specifications of the Phillips curve. Instead of imposing any specific form of expectations formation, direct measures, i.e. Consensus Economics survey data are used to proxy economic agents' inflation expectations. According to the results, the New Classical Phillips curve has satisfactory statistical properties. Moreover, the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve is clearly outperformed by the New Classical and Hybrid Phillips curves. We interpret our results as indicating that the European inflation process is not purely forward looking and inflation cannot instantaneously adjust to changes in expectations. Consequently, even allowing for possible nonrationality in expectations results in a lagged inflation term entering the New Keynesian Phillips curve for inflation dynamics in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses the effect of USD-Euro parity on a small open economy where exports are predominantly denominated in Euros and imports are denominated in USD. Empirical evidence from Turkey suggests that a positive change in the USD value of the Euro appreciates the local currency, decreases inflation and increases output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present empirical evidence regarding unemployment dynamics for women and men in eight OECD countries. Unit-root tests are used to examine the unemployment dynamics of women and men. Failure to reject the unit-root hypothesis is consistent with unemployment hysteresis. Rejection of the unit-root hypothesis indicates that unemployment dynamics are best explained by the natural rate of unemployment or the structuralist view. We find evidence of gender differences in unemployment dynamics in Canada, Germany and the US, but not in other countries. While there are some differences in the extent of persistence across gender and across countries, the degree of persistence for both female and male unemployment rates is fairly low in all countries. Our results, therefore, contrast with substantial empirical evidence of high levels of unemployment persistence in European countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article constructs a labour transition model combining the features of job loss and job creation in the formal sector of an economy. The theoretical model examines the impact of trade liberalization on net job transition from formal to informal sector. In the light of our model we establish certain pre-conditions based on simulations under which trade liberalization is accompanied by rising informal sector. The model outcome conforms to the empirical evidence of rising informality with openness which we find in 18 Central Eastern European and Former Soviet Union countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the territorial imbalances in European agriculture during the period 1980 to 2001, by means of the information provided by various methodological instruments which allow us to overcome the drawbacks of conventional convergence analysis. The results obtained reveal that the regional distribution of productivity in the agricultural sector is characterized by the presence of positive spatial dependence. This fact implies that the European regions in close spatial proximity register similar levels of the variable under study, which highlights the relevance of geographical location in this context. The empirical evidence presented also shows that regional disparities have remained almost constant during the time interval considered. However, the increase in density around the European average explains the observed reduction in the degree of bipolarization, while intra-distribution mobility is relatively limited. Finally, the analysis carried out allows us to assess the role of variables such as country of origin, investment per worker in the agricultural sector, regional per capita income or the size of the agrifood industry, in explaining the dynamics of the distribution under analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extension of publicly provided or subsidized child care is currently one of the priorities of the political agenda in many European countries. In this article, the excess demand for subsidized child care slots in Germany is estimated using a partial observability model. The results show that there is considerable excess demand for child care for children aged less than 3 years in East and West Germany, even among children with working mothers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Commission conducts an annual survey regarding planned and realized business fixed investment across various manufacturing sectors in Euroland. In this study we investigate the predictive content of survey-based expectations on investment. In addition, we empirically test the rationality of respondents both in a time series as well as in a panel context. According to our results, based on pooling the data, efficiency is rejected since expectations are biased predictors of actual outcomes. Furthermore, expectations revisions are found to be correlated with components of the information set known at the time of decision making. Finally, our results qualify regressive expectations as the mechanism that more adequately describes the formation of expectations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A cointegrating approach is undertaken in this study to determine if there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between budget deficits and long-term interest rates for the United States and nine European countries. The cointegration approach consists of conducting cointegration tests and then testing several hypothesized values for the deficit and price expectations variables. The cointegration results suggest the existence of several significant cointegrating vectors for each of the ten countries, which would seem to appeal to the view of budget deficits having a positive impact on long-term interest rates. The hypothesized values for the deficit and price expectations variables are found to be too strict since the hypotheses are rejected in every case but one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study affiliations for the countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) with Germany and the USA, using various business cycle measures derived from quarterly real GDP. These measures are Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King filtered series and annual growth rates. By using rolling contemporaneous and maximum (over a short lead/lag interval) correlations, we document increasing correlations of EMU countries with Germany, with these typically being largest during the 1990s. We also document a strong leading role for the USA in relation to these countries in the period since 1993, thereby correcting the fallacy that the European business cycle was disjointed from the USA for most of the 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluate the performance of composite leading indicators of turning points of inflation in the Euro area, constructed by combining the techniques of Fourier analysis and Kalman filters with the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology. In addition, the study compares the empirical performance of Euro Simple Sum and Divisia monetary aggregates and provides a tentative answer to the issue of whether or not the UK should join the Euro area. Our findings suggest that, first, the cyclical pattern of the different composite leading indicators very closely reflect that of the inflation cycle for the Euro area; second, the empirical performance of the Euro Divisia is better than its Simple Sum counterpart and third, the UK is better out of the Euro area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the long run relationship between government size and unemployment rate, the Abrams curve, using ten European countries over the period 1961–1999. To this end, panel cointegration analysis and estimation techniques appropriate for heterogeneous panels are made use of. The results support the idea that there is an Abrams curve, and the relation between government size and the unemployment rate is positive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most panel data studies have employed overall suicide rates (male and female) to identify the determinants of suicide. This research has also neglected the use of country specific linear time trends. Neglecting these factors may confound the empirical estimates of socio-economic variables due to the impact of unobserved country specific determinants of suicide that are time-varying. Empirical results from 15 European countries between 1970 and 1998 support this hypothesis. Specifically, economic growth, fertility rate, and alcohol consumption seem to have a significant impact on male and female suicide rates after the inclusion of country specific linear trends. Contrary to prior studies, suicide rates were not sensitive to income levels, female labour participation rates and unemployment. In addition, the effect of divorce rate is specific to gender. Finally, the results also illustrate the importance of employing age-specific suicide rates compared to what has been traditionally used, in trying to evaluate the factors responsible for suicide mortality. In particular, the impact of socio-economic factors is not equal across age groups, and policies aimed at the prevention of suicide should take this into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic thought has often regarded business cycles as asymmetric. This study examines the existence of asymmetries over the business cycle in seven European countries: France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands and the United Kingdom. To analyse this issue, industrial production in these countries from 1957 to 1998 is examined, and quarterly contractions and expansions in this variable are compared. The results obtained with both parametric and non- parametric methods allow the existence of asymmetries in these countries to be questioned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the regime changes in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS), applying the duration model approach to weekly data of eight currencies participating in the ERM, covering the complete EMS history. When using the non-parametric (univariate) analysis, it was found that for those regimens with long durations, the ERM would have been relatively stable, while for the (more common) regimes associated with short durations would have been more unstable. The probability of maintaining a certain regime is estimated to be 0.685. When applying a parametric (multivariate) analysis to investigate the role of other variables in the probability of a regime change, it is concluded that the interest rate differential with Germany and the magnitude of the realignment would have negatively affected the duration of a given regime, while credibility would have positively influenced such duration. Finally, when distinguishing between groups of currencies, it is observed that those in the core are more stable than those in the periphery, obtaining evidence against equality of survival functions among these groups of currencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ten years after the initial Climate Change Convention from Rio in 1992 the industrialized world is finally likely to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, which will impose legally binding greenhouse gas emission reductions on the developed world. However, the Kyoto Protocol will enter into force without the USA, which withdrew under President Bush in March 2001. Accounting for hot air and market power of the Former Soviet Union on emission permit markets, it is shown that US withdrawal has important consequences on environmental effectiveness, compliance costs, and excess costs of market power under the Kyoto Protocol. Non-compliance of the USA implies a dramatic decrease in environmental effectiveness as well as compliance costs of OECD countries whereas the Former Soviet Union and transitional economies in Eastern Europe suffer from a huge decline in permit sales revenues. Excess costs of market power in permit trade increase in relative terms, but decline substantially in absolute terms due to US withdrawal. Policy options are quantified to bypass the problems of hot air and market power through compensation mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study branching costs and competitiveness of European banks are measured by fitting a monopolistic competition model to a representative sample drawn from nine EEC banking industries in the period from 1990 to 1996. In the theoretical model, banks decide strategically the size of their branching network anticipating the degree of competition faced on interest rates. From the structural equations of the model an econometric test is derived in order to measure branching costs and degree of competition in banking services. The empirical analysis captures their changing over time together with the impact of various European directives aiming at deregulating the banking industry. Furthermore the study shows persistence of segmentation acoss EEC banking industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study has two principal objectives. The first objective is to measure and compare the performance of European railways. The second objective is to illustrate the usefulness of econometric distance functions in the analysis of production in multioutput industries, where behavioural assumptions such as cost minimization or profit maximization, are unlikely to be applicable. Using annual data on 17 railways companies during 1988-1993, multioutput distance functions are estimated using corrected ordinary least squares (COLS). The resulting technical efficiency estimates range from 0.980 for the Netherlands to 0.784 for Italy, with a mean of 0.863. The distance function results are also compared with those obtained from single-output production functions, where aggregate output measures are formed using either total revenue or a Tornqvist index. The results obtained indicate substantial differences in parameter estimates and technical efficiency rankings, casting significant doubt upon the reliability of these single-output models, particularly when a total revenue measure is used to proxy aggregate output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]