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Development and application of the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method, have been the subject of numerous reviews. In this paper, we consider the papers that apply DEA methods specifically to financial services, or which use financial services data to experiment with a newly introduced DEA model. We examine 620 papers published in journals indexed in the Web of Science database, from 1985 to April 2016. We analyse the sample applying citations network analysis. This paper investigates the DEA method and its applications in financial services. We analyse the diffusion of DEA in three sub-samples: (1) banking groups, (2) money market funds, and (3) insurance groups by identifying the main paths, that is, the main flows of the ideas underlying each area of research. This allows us to highlight the main approaches, models and efficiency types used in each research areas. No unique methodological preference emerges within these areas. Innovations in the DEA methodologies (network models, slacks based models, directional distance models and Nash bargaining game) clearly dominate recent research. For each subsample, we describe the geographical distribution of these studies, and provide some basic statistics related to the most active journals and scholars. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Supply chain management aims to designing, managing and coordinating material/product, information and financial flows to fulfill the customer requirements at low costs and thereby increasing supply chain profitability. In the last decades, data envelopment analysis has become the main topic of interest as a mathematical tool to evaluate supply chain management. While, various data envelopment analysis models have been suggested to measure and evaluate the supply chain management, there is a lack of research regarding to systematic literature review and classification of study in this field. Regarding this, some major databases including Web of Science and Scopus have been nominated and systematic and meta-analysis method which called “PRISMA” has been proposed. Accordingly, a review of 75 published articles appearing in 35 scholarly international journals and conferences between 1996 and 2016 have been attained to reach a comprehensive review of data envelopment analysis models in evaluation supply chain management. Consequently, the selected published articles have been categorized by author name, the year of publication, technique, application area, country, scope, data envelopment analysis purpose, study purpose, research gap and contribution, results and outcome, and journals and conferences in which they appeared. The results of this study indicated that areas of supplier selection, supply chain efficiency and sustainable supply chain have had the highest frequently than other areas. In addition, results of this review paper indicated that data envelopment analysis showed great promise to be a good evaluative tool for future evaluation on supply chain management, where the production function between the inputs and outputs was virtually absent or extremely difficult to acquire. The facility of multiple inputs and multiple outputs of the data envelopment analysis model was definitely an attractive one to most researchers and, therefore, the data envelopment analysis procedure had found many applications beyond supply chain management into organization and industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, devising an effective reverse logistics supply chain to clean up disaster medical waste is conducive to controlling and containing novel coronavirus transmission. Thus, the focus of this paper concentrates on multi-period multi-type disaster medical waste location-transportation integrated optimization problem with the concern of sustainability, which is formulated as a tri-objective mixed-integer programming model with the goals of maximizing total economic benefits, minimizing total carbon emissions and total potential social risks. Then, a real-world case from Wuhan using CPLEX solver is used to validate the developed model. Results indicate that constructing DMWTTSs with flexible capacity in different periods is encouraged to handle the sharply increasing disaster medical waste. The multi-period decision model outperforms the single-period one in disaster medical waste supply chains because the former has the capability of handling the uncertainties in the future periods. Increasingly, since the increase of budget doesn't always work well and social resources are limited, the estimation of minimum budget to obtain optimum overall performance is of great importance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale disasters occur worldwide, with a continuing surge in the frequency and severity of disruptive events. Researchers have developed several optimization models to address the critical challenges of disaster relief supply chains (e.g., emergency material reserving and scheduling inefficiencies). However, most developed algorithms are proven to have low fault tolerance, which makes it difficult for disaster relief supply chain managers to obtain optimal solutions and meet the emergency distribution requirements within a limited time frame. Considering the uncertainty and ambiguity of disaster relief information and using Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Set (IT2TFS), this paper presents a collaborative optimization model based on an integrative emergency material supplier evaluation framework. The optimal emergency material suppliers are first selected using a multi-attribute group decision-making ranking method. Multi-objective fuzzy optimization is then run in three emergency phases: early -, mid-, and late-disaster relief stages. Focusing on a massive flash flood disaster event in Yunnan Province as a case study, a comprehensive numerical analysis tests and validates the developed model. The results revealed that the proposed optimization method can optimize emergency material planning while ensuring that reserve material safety inventory is always maintained at a reasonable level. The presented method suggests a fuzzy interval to prevent emergency materials' safety inventory shortage and minimize continuous life/property losses in disaster-affected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The location planning of relief distribution centres (DCs) is crucial in humanitarian logistics as it directly influences the disaster response and service to the affected victims. In light of the critical role of facility location in humanitarian logistics planning, the study proposes a two-stage relief distribution location problem. The first stage of the model determines the minimum number of relief DCs, and the second stage find the optimal location of these DCs to minimize the total cost. To address a more realistic situation, restrictions are imposed on the coverage area and capacity of each DCs. In addition, for optimally solving this complex NP-hard problem, a novel two-phase algorithm with exploration and exploitation phase is developed in the paper. The first phase of the algorithm i.e., exploration phase identifies a near-optimal solution while the second phase i.e. exploitation phase enhances the solution quality through a close circular proximity investigation. Furthermore, the comparative analysis of the proposed algorithm with other well-known algorithms such as genetic algorithm, pattern search, fmincon, multistart and hybrid heuristics is also reported and computationally tested from small to large data sets. The results reveal that the proposed two-phase algorithm is more efficient and effective when compared to the conventional metaheuristic methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disruption from the COVID-19 pandemic has caused major upheavals for manufacturing, and has severe implications for production networks, and the demand and supply chains underpinning manufacturing operations. This paper is the first of its kind to pull together research on both—the pandemic-related challenges and the management interventions in a manufacturing context. This systematic literature review reveals the frailty of supply chains and production networks in withstanding the pressures of lockdowns and other safety protocols, including product and workforce shortages. These, altogether, have led to closed facilities, reduced capacities, increased costs, and severe economic uncertainty for manufacturing businesses. In managing these challenges and stabilising their operations, manufacturers are urgently intervening by—investing in digital technologies, undertaking resource redistribution and repurposing, regionalizing and localizing, servitizing, and targeting policies that can help them survive in this altered economy. Based on holistic analysis of these challenges and interventions, this review proposes an extensive research agenda for future studies to pursue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world is facing an unprecedented humanitarian crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Humanitarian service systems are being empowered to tackle this crisis through the use of vast amounts of structured and unstructured data to protect vulnerable individuals and communities. Analytics has emerged as a powerful platform to visualise, predict, and prescribe solutions to humanitarian crises, such as disease containment, healthcare capacity, and emergency food supply. However, there is a paucity of research on the microfoundations of the humanitarian analytics empowerment capability. As such, drawing on dynamic capability theory and by means of a systematic literature review and thematic analysis, this study proposes an analytics empowerment capability framework for humanitarian service systems. The findings show that analytics culture, technological sophistication, data-driven insights, decision making autonomy, knowledge and skills, and training and development are crucial components of the analytics empowerment's capability to sense, seize, and remedy crisis situations. The paper discusses both theoretical and practical research implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The governments' isolation measures to contain the transmission of COVID-19 imposed a dilemma for the people at the bottom of the pyramid. Since these people have very unreliable sources of income, a dilemma arises: they must either work under risky conditions or refrain from work and suffer from income cuts. Emergency donations of food and cleaning supplies in a pandemic context might be overlooked by government and civil society actors. This paper aims to model the effects of donations on mitigating the negative effects of COVID-19 on vulnerable communities. Applying the system dynamics method, we simulated the behaviour of the pandemic in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) communities and the impacts that donations of food and cleaning supplies have in these settings. We administered surveys to the beneficiaries and local organisations responsible for the final distribution of donations to gather information from the field operations. The results show that increasing access to cleaning supplies in communities through donations can significantly reduce coronavirus transmission, particularly in high-density and low-resource areas, such as slums in urban settings. In addition, we also show that food donations can increase the vulnerable population's ability to afford necessities, alleviating the stress caused by the pandemic on this portion of the population. Therefore, this work helps decision-makers (such as government and non-governmental organisations) understand the impacts of donations on controlling outbreaks, especially under COVID-19 conditions, in a low-resource environment and, thus, aid these hard-to-reach populations in a pandemic setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID 19 has brought unprecedented changes in the way we communicate. There is a greater accent on Virtual communication. This paper aims to establish a relationship between Emotional intelligence and the effectiveness of Virtual communication on Decision making. This empirical study is based on a sample drawn from 296 working professionals at five different levels of organizational hierarchy. A standardized questionnaire (ɑ = 0.824) was used to collect the responses of Emotional intelligence, Virtual communication, and Decision-making effectiveness. Hierarchical regression using PROCESS Macro model 1 was used to identify the moderating effect of Emotional intelligence on Virtual communication and Decision making effectiveness. Since the p-value (p ≤.007) is found significant, Emotional intelligence acts as a moderator that affects the strength of the relationship between Virtual communication effectiveness and Decision making. Validation of Task Technology fit theory is the theoretical implication of the study. Manipulation of individual dimensions in the model can reduce the dependence on technology for task completion with enhanced performance effectiveness. The findings are relevant to educators, consultants, and any professional who need to adapt Virtual communication platforms on an ongoing basis. Since work-life balance is projected as a constraint in this study, policymakers can consider policy amendments to reduce the stress caused due to Virtual communication which intrudes into their personal space. This empirical study is the first of its kind to benchmark the organizational practice of Emotional intelligence training to enhance Virtual communication and Decision making effectiveness during unprecedented times of pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Supply chain viability (SCV) is an emerging concept of growing importance in operations management. This paper aims to conceptualize, develop, and validate a measurement scale for SCV. SCV is first defined and operationalized as a construct, followed by content validation and item measure development. Data have been collected through three independent samplings comprising a total of 558 respondents. Both exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses are used in a step-wise manner for scale development. Reliability and validity are evaluated. A nomological model is theorized and tested to evaluate nomological validity. For the first time, our study frames SCV as a novel and distinct construct. The findings show that SCV is a hierarchical and multidimensional construct, reflected in organizational structures, organizational resources, dynamic design capabilities, and operational aspects. The findings reveal that a central characteristic of SCV is the dynamic reconfiguration of SC structures in an adaptive manner to ensure survival in the long-term perspective. This research conceptualizes and provides specific, validated dimensions and item measures for SCV. Practitioner directed guidance and suggestions are offered for improving SCV during the COVID-19 pandemic and future severe disruptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Entering the COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on supply chains. Reacting to the pandemic and adaptation in the "new normal" have been challenging tasks. Exiting the pandemic can lead to some after-shock effects such as "disruption tails." While the research community has undertaken considerable efforts to predict the pandemic's impacts and examine supply chain adaptive behaviors during the pandemic, little is known about supply chain management in the course of pandemic elimination and post-disruption recovery. If capacity and inventory management are unaware of the after-shock risks, this can result in highly destabilized production–inventory dynamics and decreased performance in the post-disruption period causing product deficits in the markets and high inventory costs in the supply chains. In this paper, we use a discrete-event simulation model to investigate some exit strategies for a supply chain in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our model can inform managers about the existence and risk of disruption tails in their supply chains and guide the selection of post-pandemic recovery strategies. Our results show that supply chains with postponed demand and shutdown capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic are particularly prone to disruption tails. We then developed and examined two strategies to avoid these disruption tails. First, we observed a conjunction of recovery and supply chain coordination which mitigates the impact of disruption tails by demand smoothing over time in the post-disruption period. Second, we found a gradual capacity ramp-up prior to expected peaks of postponed demand to be an effective strategy for disruption tail control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is the first attempt to provide a comprehensive account of pricing and informational efficiency of the US and EU natural gas markets. We rely on Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet decomposition (MODWT) of daily data of US Henry Hub, British NBP and Dutch TTF natural gas physical and futures returns at different maturities between 2013 and 2019. Multiscale linear and nonlinear Granger causality and random walk testing are investigated. We find that futures prices and spot prices of Henry Hub, NBP, and TTF are cointegrated. Moreover, multiscale causality testing shows that Henry Hub markets exhibit strong bidirectional causality between spot and futures markets. EU markets are globally efficient in terms of pricing despite some inconsistencies on the causality direction across time scales and maturities of the futures contracts. Finally, for the three selected futures markets, informational efficiency is reached only in the long-run. The results make it possible to establish an evaluation of the hubs in terms of their capacity to provide reliable reference prices for the quantities of gas under contract through a discussion on the crucial role of liquidity and storage capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, in order to serve credit risk management, we introduce a pricing model for a vulnerable Bull Spread options in a Mixed Modified Fractional Hull-White-Vasicek stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rate model. We use Milstein scheme to find the sample paths of asset price and its volatility, and the sample paths of interest rates of asset price movement. We use the double Mellin transform to obtain an analytical vulnerable bull spread call option formula and an analytical vulnerable bull spread put option formula under fractional stochastic volatility and fractional stochastic interest rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the implications of investors' short-term oriented asset holding and portfolio decisions (or short-termism), and its consequences on green investments. We adopt a dynamic portfolio model, which contrary to conventional static mean-variance models, allows us to study optimal portfolios for different decision horizons. Our baseline model contains two assets, one asset with fluctuating returns and another asset with a constant risk-free return. The asset with fluctuating returns can arise from fossil-fuel based sectors or from clean energy related sectors. We consider different drivers of short-termism: the discount rate, the nature of discounting (exponential vs. hyperbolic), and the decision horizon of investors itself. We study first the implications of these determinants of short-termism on the portfolio wealth dynamics of the baseline model. We find that portfolio wealth declines faster with a higher discount rate, with hyperbolic discounting, and with shorter decision horizon. We extend our model to include a portfolio of two assets with fluctuating returns. For both model variants, we explore the cases where innovation efforts are spent on fossil fuel or clean energy sources. Detailing dynamic portfolio decisions in such a way may allow us for better pathways to empirical tests and may provide guidance to some online financial decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we extend the research on the effect of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on firm risk by analyzing the CSR–idiosyncratic risk nexus and how CSR can be integrated as insurance in a global risk management strategy. First, the causality between CSR and risk was tested. Second, copulas were estimated to strengthen the existing results on the structure of the dependence between the different dimensions of CSR activities and idiosyncratic risk levels. The empirical analysis was conducted on a sample of 254 European-listed firms over the 2018–2020 period. The main results showed a directional causality effect between CSR and idiosyncratic risk, and the dependences were modeled between CSR and realized idiosyncratic risk. This allows a better understanding of the risk implications of CSR for investors, corporate managers, and policy makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the double-edged sword effect of investor attention on market liquidity. Based on the analysis on 597 cryptocurrencies from 2014 to 2020, our findings show that static investor attention improves cryptocurrency market liquidity over the next three months by attracting more investors into the market and stimulating buy and sell transactions. By contrast, abnormal attention persistently and negatively affects the liquidity and leads to excessive net buying pressure in the market and a crowded buyers' market, resulting in a sharp deterioration of liquidity. Moreover, these effects intensify during low global economic policy uncertainty periods and for cryptocurrencies with small market capitalization and low idiosyncratic volatility. Overall, our results have important implications for investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monte-Carlo based valuation in life insurance involves the simulation of various components of the balance sheet: portfolios, guarantees, assets mix, market conditions and many other specific risk factors; which can be time-consuming. In view of the time needed to achieve this task, insurers are then facing a trade-off of balancing the number of simulations against the uncertainty surrounding the estimated quantity. In the current paper, we propose a variance-reduction methodology using a machine learning technique. It roots from the unsupervised learning literature in conjunction with the quantization of random processes. The goal is to reduce the number of simulated Brownian paths, using auxiliary scenarios that can be seen as path clusters, which efficiently and accurately approximate the initial ones with regards to an adequate measure of distance. Moreover, we introduce penalty to accommodate for various inputs of the initial conditions of risk factors. By doing so, we implicitly assign labels to the scenarios and thus advocate using a semi-supervised learning to enhance the performance of the scenarios reduction by imposing an additional impurity condition on the clusters based on these labels. This is made possible thanks to a decomposition property of the insurers cash-flows, which allows to disentangle the initial conditions of risk factors from the Brownian motions driving their dynamics. The training of the proposed learning algorithm is based on an adaptation of the well-known k-means algorithm. An intensive numerical study is carried out over a range of simulation setups to compare the performances of the proposed methodology. We show, numerically, that the proposed methodology outperforms some classical variance reduction approach. Also, using a real-life dataset, we show that our methodology outperforms some conventional variance reduction used by life insurance practitioners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of this paper is to examine the effect of high liquidity creation on systemic risk. We use a hand-collected dataset on 94 banks from 16 Western European countries over the 2004–2020 period, including the crisis (2008–2009) period and sound periods (2004–2007 and 2010–2020). We assess banks' systemic risk using two different proxies: banks' systemic risk exposure, measured by the marginal expected shortfall (MES), and banks' systemic risk contribution, measured by the delta conditional value at risk (ΔCoVaR). Based on panel regressions, our results mainly show that, during calm periods, high liquidity creation is associated with high systemic risk exposure. Moreover, we show that the effect of liquidity creation on banks' systemic risk exposure is stronger during turmoil periods. Interestingly, our results show that banks' liquidity creation increases the systemic contribution only during the financial crisis of 2008–2009. Our findings contribute to the literature and the regulatory debate by suggesting that regulators should pay more attention to high liquidity-creating banks as they may cause aggregate financial fragility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to emphasize the differences between a call and a warrant as well as the different valuation methods of warrants which have been introduced in the financial literature. For the sake of simplicity and applicability, we only consider a debt-free equity-financed firm. More recently a formal distinction between structural and reduced form pricing models has been introduced. This distinction is important whether one wishes to price a new warrant issue or outstanding warrants. If we are interested in pricing a new issue of warrants, e.g. in the context of a management incentive package, one has to rely on a structural model. However most of practitioners use the simple Black-Scholes formula. In this context, we analyze the accuracy of the approximation of the "true" price of a warrant by the Black-Scholes formula. We show that in the current low interest rate environment, the quality of the approximation deteriorates and the sensitivity of this approximation to the volatility estimate increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the stock performance of Islamic banks relative to their conventional counterparts during the initial phase of the COVID-19 crisis (from December 31, 2019, to March 31, 2020). Using 426 banks from 48 countries, we find that stock returns of Islamic banks were about 10–13% higher than those of conventional banks after controlling for a host of the bank- and country-level variables. This study explains the Islamic banks' superior crisis stock performance by exploring the potential role of pre-crisis bank efficiency. In a univariate analysis, we document higher non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) efficiency levels for Islamic banks than conventional banks in the year preceding the COVID-19 crisis. Our multivariate regressions show that the risk-adjusted DEA efficiency scores can explain crisis stock returns for Islamic banks but not conventional banks. The evidence is robust to alternative measures of stock returns, efficiency models, and other empirical strategies. Finally, we present insight on the importance of key bank characteristics in determining the stock returns of conventional banks during the crisis period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the interpretability problem of non-parametric option pricing models by using the explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) approach. We study call options written on the S&P 500 stock market index across three market regimes: pre-COVID-19, COVID-19 market crash, and post-COVID-19 recovery. Our comparative option pricing exercise demonstrates the superiority of the random forest and extreme gradient boosting models for each market regime. We also show that the model's pricing accuracy has worsened from the pre-COVID-19 to the recovery period. Moneyness was the most important price determinants across the market regimes, while the implied volatility and time-to-maturity inputs contributed intermittently to a lesser extent. During the COVID-19 crash, open interest gained more economic importance due to the increased behavioral tendencies of traders consistent with market distress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the use of loan loss reserves (LLRs) in the banking production process and treats it as one variable with a dual role. We establish a three-stage network Data Envelopment Analysis model to address this issue. Using a sample of 43 Chinese commercial banks over the period 2011–2019, the results show that the banks with the ratio between LLRs and total loans less than 1% have higher level of efficiency compared to the ones holding the ratio greater than 1%. The results show that when excluding LLRs in the production process, the efficiency scores are significantly inflated. We find that small and medium sized banks are more efficient than their big counterparts, however, the results show that big banks hold more than enough amounts of LLRs than the one required by the regulatory authority. When LLRs are excluded from the production process, it shows that big banks perform better than small and medium sized banks. Our findings show that less liquid banks perform better than the ones with higher levels of liquidity no matter in which way LLRs are treated. Finally, we find that lower capitalized banks, compared to the ones with high levels of capitalization, are less efficient. however, it shows that higher capitalized banks consistently keep more than 1% LLRs out of total loans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Islamic banking is among rapidly-growing components in the world's financial system. Within its institutions, continuous criteria of efficiency facilitate the evaluation of the impact of the reforms and policies on the banks' performance. In this paper, we employ the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) method for estimating the efficiency of Islamic banks in developed and developing countries. MARS is a well-known efficient method for the flexible modelling of high-dimensional data. Unlike previous work, using a nonparametric technique of such a robustness instead of parametric approaches contributes to the improvement of the various estimates, which provides investors with accurate and timely information they can immediately react upon for a better decision-making in turbulent times. On the one hand, the results of the experiments show that, in the emerging region, there is evidence of a strong linkage between Islamic banking efficiency and gross domestic product. On the other hand, in the developed region, the efficiency is rather based upon Sharia Supervisory Board and board committees. These outcomes confirm previous works showing that governance-related variables have a significant positive effect on Islamic banking efficiency. Furthermore, the overall MARS-based predictions reveal that Islamic banks operating in developed countries are relatively more efficient than their counterparts in emerging countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has given rise to a spike in financial market volatility. In this paper, we attempt to assess the effects of financial & news-driven uncertainty shocks in growing Asian economies, using country-specific bond volatility shocks as a measure of local interest rate uncertainty. Also, we contrast the effects of local uncertainty with global stock market uncertainty. Using bond market data from nine Asian markets, we uncover a transmission mechanism of uncertainty shocks via the bond market. The mechanism works as a crowding-out effect due to government-led excessive market borrowing with supply-side consequences for the private sector, as opposed to economic policy or global stock market uncertainty which works more like a demand shock as in the literature. We conclude that countries with growing fiscal deficits that entail a larger government bond market or higher current account deficits, tend to experience an increase in the cost of borrowing due to this bond market volatility or interest rate uncertainty shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the issue of modelling the volatility of futures prices in agricultural markets. We develop a multi-factor model in which the stochastic volatility dynamics incorporate a seasonal component. In addition, we employ a maturity-dependent damping term to account for the Samuelson effect. We give the conditions under which the volatility dynamics are well defined and obtain the joint characteristic function of a pair of futures prices. We then derive the state-space representation of our model in order to use the Kalman filter algorithm for estimation and prediction. The empirical analysis is carried out using daily futures data from 2007 to 2019 for corn, cotton, soybeans, sugar and wheat. In-sample, the seasonal models clearly outperform the nested non-seasonal models in all five markets. Out-of-sample, we predict volatility peaks with high accuracy for four of these five commodities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial institutions, investors, mining companies and related firms need an effective accurate forecasting model to examine gold price fluctuations in order to make correct decisions. This paper proposes an innovative approach to accurately forecast gold price movements and to interpret predictions. First, it compares six machine learning models. These models include two very recent methods: the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and CatBoost. The empirical findings indicate the superiority of XGBoost over other advanced machine learning models. Second, it proposes Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) in order to help policy makers to interpret the predictions of complex machine learning models and to examine the importance of various features that affect gold prices. Our results illustrate that the utilization of XGBoost along with SHAP approach could provide a significant boost in increasing the gold price forecasting performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Payment cards offer a simple and convenient method for making purchases. Owing to the increase in the usage of payment cards, especially in online purchases, fraud cases are on the rise. The rise creates financial risk and uncertainty, as in the commercial sector, it incurs billions of losses each year. However, real transaction records that can facilitate the development of effective predictive models for fraud detection are difficult to obtain, mainly because of issues related to confidentially of customer information. In this paper, we apply a total of 13 statistical and machine learning models for payment card fraud detection using both publicly available and real transaction records. The results from both original features and aggregated features are analyzed and compared. A statistical hypothesis test is conducted to evaluate whether the aggregated features identified by a genetic algorithm can offer a better discriminative power, as compared with the original features, in fraud detection. The outcomes positively ascertain the effectiveness of using aggregated features for undertaking real-world payment card fraud detection problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disaster management (DM), within a broad field of operations management, is becoming an emergent area of interest for academics and practitioners. This study examines the literature evolving on disaster management linked to application of simulation modelling. Many literature review studies on disaster management are offered by numerous authors. However, broad analysis of various applications of simulation based modelling within a DM context are not adequate. As a result, the proposed research carries out a review of 100 papers published in numerous peer-reviewed academic journals during the period 2000 and January 2016. In particular, the paper presents a classification of publications based on the simulation technique(s) used; examines the disaster issues addressed by the technique (s) used; analyzes trends and identifies the impact of published research on simulation modeling pertaining to DM. This study would enable researchers to understand the significance of various simulation modelling techniques in resolving a variety of disaster related challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The field of supply chain management has been extensively studied, while its role in disaster relief operations has received limited contributions. Recent dedicated special issues on Humanitarian Operations and Supply Chain Management (HOSCM) and a dedicated Journal focusing on humanitarian logistics and supply chain management clearly indicate the growing popularity of the HOSCM literature. The purpose of our current study is to undertake an extensive review of extant literature published in operations and supply chain management journals as well as popular interdisciplinary journals. A review of 362 papers published between 2011 and 2017 provides a thematic outline of the study. The study pivots around nine key themes, which have gained prominent attention from HOSCM scholars, and draws a roadmap from reviewing earlier review papers to performance evaluation of HOSCM related studies. Some of the key themes include humanitarian logistics, theory focused research, case studies, mathematical models, humanitarian supply chain properties and resources needed for efficient and effective management of humanitarian operations. Finally, our study offers several research directions which may take the existing debates to a next level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we give a list of ATM related papers. This is not a complete list. Rather, it represents the bulk of the references in this ever-growing area. For easier use of this reference list, we have classified the papers into the following six categories: general, source characterization, switching, congestion control, routing, and transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main idea of conditional ordering is to sharpen the ordering results in such a way that even conditionally on some kind of additional information on the underlying ‘experiment’ the ordering is valid. In this paper, some sufficient conditions for conditional variability and conditional dispersion orderings are established. The main idea is to find sufficient assumptions which are stable by conditioning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a mixed-integer linear programming model is discussed to provide joint decision making for facility location and production–distribution across countries for both forward and reverse logistics. A hybrid facility network is considered for cost-cutting and equipment sharing where the facilities of forward logistics are also equipped to provide reverse logistics services. The model considers the dynamic production and storage capacity of the facilities which can be expanded if required. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the model is tested to deal with disruptions due to man-made or natural disasters. The dynamic facility allocation enables the model to withstand the demand/supply disruptions in a disaster-affected zone. Besides this, the model considers carbon emissions caused due to manufacturing, remanufacturing, repair, storage and transportation. These emissions are regulated using cap and trade policy Thus, the proposed model balances resilience and sustainability under uncertain market demand and product returns. The chance-constrained approach is used to obtain the deterministic equivalence of the stochastic demand and returns. The paper also investigates the changes in emission and production level in each country under demand and supply disruptions. The parameters of the model are mapped with the various dimensions of big data such as volume, velocity and variety. The proposed model is solved using randomly generated data sets having realistic parameters with essential big data characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fake news, misinformation and disinformation have significantly increased over the past years, and they have a profound effect on societies and supply chains. This paper examines the relationship of information risks with supply chain disruptions and proposes blockchain applications and strategies to mitigate and manage them. We critically review the literature of SCRM and SCRES and find that information flows and risks are relatively attracting less attention. We contribute by suggesting that information integrates other flows, processes and operations, and it is an overarching theme that is essential in every part of the supply chain. Based on related studies we create a theoretical framework that incorporates fake news, misinformation and disinformation. To our knowledge, this is a first attempt to combine types of misleading information and SCRM/SCRES. We find that fake news, misinformation and disinformation can be amplified and cause larger supply chain disruptions, especially when they are exogenous and intentional. Finally, we present both theoretical and practical applications of blockchain technology to supply chain and find support that blockchain can actually advance risk management and resilience of supply chains. Cooperation and information sharing are effective strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) has evolved since its inception and has contributed mainly to multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) to solve complex problems. It is a widespread technique that uses group decision-making approach to solve problems in business operations, mathematics, and numerous other scientific fields. While its applications are numerous, a handful of researchers have studied the growth trajectory of AHP. Whilst these seminal works have discussed the evolution of AHP in different contexts and using contemporary techniques, we complement them by presenting and reflecting on the unchartered and pressing need of charting the managerial and theoretical evolution of AHP, over the last decade. We do this through a systematic and thematic review of the extant literature. This study uses the Scopus database to extract papers published between 2012 and 2021 in decision science with an overlap with operations research and information systems. The study follows Tranfield et al. (2003)'s guidelines to understand the past trends of AHP along three key dimensions and offers future directions. The study also showcases key trends using historiography and uses data visualization techniques to understand the use of AHP with other MCDM techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Consistency Index and the Consistency Ratio of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) were designed to measure the ratio of inconsistent judgments among pairwise comparisons (PCs), which have been the principal indices for the past four decades. Definitions of inconsistency measures for PCs have yet to be established, however, because of the difficulty in quantifying subjectivity in judgments. Therefore, an empirical review that can take such subjective factors into account is essential. In this paper, the Consistency Ratio is thus reviewed using subjective data, and then a new inconsistency index for PCs is proposed based on the review. The review is based on subjective data obtained from two opinion surveys, which focuses on the relationship between the Consistency Ratio and two indicators: (1) the conformity of the results of the AHP and that of the ranking method, and (2) the goodness-of-fit of weight elicited by the AHP to human perception. A new inconsistency index is then proposed based on the mathematical property of a pairwise comparison matrix and further validated based on the conformity and the goodness-of-fit of weight. The results show that the proposed index detects inconsistency among real-world PCs more sensitively than could the Consistency Ratio; the index might suggest the reliability of the output of a pairwise comparison matrix. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes novel multi-objective optimization strategies to develop a weighted ensemble model. The comparison of the performance of the proposed strategies against simulated data suggests that the multi-objective strategy based on joint entropy is superior to other proposed strategies. For the application, generalization, and practical implications of the proposed approaches, we implemented the model on two real datasets related to the prediction of credit risk default and the adoption of the innovative business model by firms. The scope of this paper can be extended in ordering the solutions of the proposed multi-objective strategies and can be generalized for other similar predictive tasks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the general problem of designing ordinal classification methods based on comparing actions with limiting boundaries of ordered classes (categories). The fundamental requirement of the method consists of setting a relational system (D,S), where S and D are reflexive and transitive relations, respectively, S should be compatible with the order of the set of classes, and D is a subset of S. An asymmetric preference relation P is defined from S. Other requirements are imposed on the actions which compose the limiting boundaries between adjacent classes, in such a way that each class is closed below and above. The paper proposes S-based and P-based assignment procedures. Each of them is composed of two complementary assignment procedures, which correspond through the transposition operation and should be used conjointly. The methods work under several basic conditions on the set of limiting boundaries. Under other more demanding separability requirements, each procedure fulfills the set of structural properties established for other outranking-based ordinal classification methods. Our proposal avoids the conflict between the required correspondence through the transposition operation and the assignment of limiting actions to the classes to which they belong. We thus propose very diverse S and P-based ordinal classification approaches with desirable properties, which can be designed by using decision models with the capacity to build preference relations fulfilling the basic requirements to S and D. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Implied winning probabilities are usually derived from betting odds by the normalization: inverse odds are divided by the booksum (sum of the inverse odds) to ensure that the implied probabilities add up to 1. Another, less frequently used method, is Shin's model, which endogenously accounts for a possible favourite-longshot bias. In this paper, we compare these two methods in two betting markets on soccer games. The method we use for the comparison is new and has two advantages. Unlike the binning method that is used predominantly, it is based on match-level data. The method allows for residual favourite-longshot bias, and also allows for incorporation of match specific variables that may determine the relation between the actual probability of the outcome and the implied winning probabilities. The method can be applied to any probabilistic classification problem. In our application, we find that Shin's model yields unbiased estimates for the actual probability of outcome in the English Premier League. In the Spanish La Liga, implied probabilities derived from the betting odds using either the method of normalization or Shin's model suffer from favourite bias: favourites tend to win their matches more frequently than the implied probabilities suggest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of age on performance is a fundamental component to models of player valuation and prediction across sport. Age effects are typically measured using age curves, which reflect the expected average performance at each age among all players that are eligible to participate. Most age curve methods, however, ignore the reality that age likewise influences which players receive opportunities to perform. In this paper we begin by highlighting how selection bias is linked to the ages in which we observe players perform. Next, using underlying distributions of how players move in and out of sport organizations, we assess the performance of various methods for age curve estimation under the selection bias of player entry and issues of small samples at younger and older ages. We propose several methods for player age curve estimation, introduce a missing data framework, and compare these new methods to more familiar approaches including both parametric and semi-parametric modeling. We then use simulations to compare several approaches for estimating aging curves. Imputation-based methods, as well as models that account for individual player skill, tend to generate lower root mean squared error (RMSE) and age curve shapes that better match the truth. We implement our approach using data from the National Hockey League. All of the data and code for this paper are available in a Github repository. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzing sports data has become a challenging issue as it involves not standard data structures coming from several sources and with different formats, being often high dimensional and complex. This paper deals with a dyadic structure (athletes/coaches), characterized by a large number of manifest and latent variables. Data were collected in a survey administered within a joint project of University of Naples Federico II and Italian Swimmer Federation. The survey gathers information about psychosocial aspects influencing swimmers' performance. The paper introduces a data processing method for dyadic data by presenting an alternative approach with respect to the current used models and provides an analysis of psychological factors affecting the actor/partner interdependence by means of a quantile regression. The obtained results could be an asset to design strategies and actions both for coaches and swimmers establishing an original use of statistical methods for analysing athletes psychological behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the significant challenges in the sports industry is identifying the factors influencing match results and their respective weightage. For appropriate recommendations to the team management and the team players, there is a need to predict the match and quantify the important factors for which prediction models need to be developed. The second thing required is identifying talented and emerging players and performing an associative analysis of the important factors to the match-winning outcome. This paper formulates a hybrid machine learning-clustering-associative rules model. This paper also implements the framework for cricket matches, one of the most popular sports globally watched by billions around the world. We predict the match outcome for One day Internationals (ODIs) and Twenty 20 s (T20s) (two formats of Cricket representing fifty over and twenty over versions respectively) adopting state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and Deep neural networks. The variable importance is computed using machine-learning techniques and further statistically validated through the regression model. The emerging talented players are identified by clustering. Association rules are generated for determining the best possible winning outcome. The results show that environmental conditions are equally crucial for determining a match result, as are internal quantitative factors. The model is thus helpful for both team management and for players to improve their winning strategy and also for discovering emerging players to form an unbeatable team. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper surveys the increasing use of statistical approaches in non-parametric efficiency studies. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Free Disposable Hull (FDH) are recognized as standard non-parametric methods developed in the field of operations research. Kneip et al. (Econom Theory, 14:783–793, 1998) and Park et al. (Econom Theory, 16:855–877, 2000) develop statistical properties of the variable returns-to-scale (VRS) version of DEA estimators and FDH estimators, respectively. Simar & Wilson (Manag Sci 44, 49–61, 1998) show that conventional bootstrap methods cannot provide valid inference in the context of DEA or FDH estimators and introduce a smoothed bootstrap for use with DEA or FDH efficiency estimators. By doing so, they address the main drawback of non-parametric models as being deterministic and without a statistical interpretation. Since then, many articles have applied this innovative approach to examine efficiency and productivity in various fields while providing confidence interval estimates to gauge uncertainty. Despite this increasing research attention and significant theoretical and methodological developments in its first two decades, a specific and comprehensive bibliometric analysis of bootstrap DEA/FDH literature and subsequent statistical approaches is still missing. This paper thus, aims to provide an extensive overview of the key articles and their impact in the field. Specifically, in addition to some summary statistics such as citations, the most influential academic journals and authorship network analysis, we review the methodological developments as well as the pertinent software applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Waste management is an important issue in the field of green logistics. It has consequently drawn the attention of the scientific community and has been extensively investigated over the past few years. Through an analysis of the existing waste management literature, we attempt in this paper to better understand past developments in this area as well as emerging trends and recent developments. Emphasis will be put mainly on Operations Research and Management Science techniques when dealing with waste management problems. To reach this target, we follow bibliometric-based methods, specifically Co-citation Analysis, Betweenness Centrality and Burst Detection combined with network visualization. After identifying the research papers published between 1990 and 2018 within the Thomson Reuters Web of Science database, a Co-citation network has been constructed. We propose an algorithm for modularity-based clustering in small networks that iteratively solves a sequence of Mixed Integer Non-linear Programming problems to maximize the modularity therefore providing a non-overlapping partition of the network. A display of the principal research areas and landmark articles that shape the intellectual structure of the waste management problems during the last 30 years is reported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) is a family of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) methods dealing with incomplete, imprecise, and uncertain information on the evaluations and preference model parameters. As it provides a general framework that has extensions to deal with various specificities in MCDM problems, the development of SMAA methods and their applications in real-life decision-making problems have been increased over the recent years. This paper provides an up-to-date literature review of different SMAA methods and their applications in various areas. First, we selected, from different on-line data base, 118 articles published between 1998 and 2017. We categorized the selected papers into theoretical and applied. While the theoretical papers were analyzed based on the method's aggregation procedure, type of problem, type of method's outputs and inputs, the applied papers were separated and analyzed by application areas. Then, we provide some descriptive statistics, analyzing the papers regarding to publication year and journals of publication. Finally, we provide some guidelines to assist decision-makers in the choice of a SMAA method on a specific decision-making context and some future research directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This special issue of the I Annals of Operations Research i comprises a selection of papers from worldwide researchers in the field. We encouraged submissions from the 3rd Symposium on Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis (QFRA) held in June 2017 at the island of Corfu in Greece, although the call for papers was open to all researchers in the field. We extend our gratitude to all the referees for their devotion and time to reading, assessing, and providing high-quality reports for the papers they reviewed that definitely helped the authors enhance their papers and us to make our final decision. [Extracted from the article]

One of the mandates of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Topological Network Design was to assess the state of the art, and to identify directions for future research. This discussion paper summarizes those discussions at the workshop, both formal and informal, pertaining to network reliability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents the preface for the April 2005 issue of "Annals of Operations Research."

Computational methods for rostering and personnel scheduling has been a subject of continued research and commercial interest since the 1950s. This annotated bibliography puts together a comprehensive collection of some 700 references in this area, focusing mainly on algorithms for generating rosters and personnel schedules but also covering related areas such as workforce planning and estimating staffing requirements. We classify these papers according to the type of problem addressed, the application areas covered and the methods used. In addition, a short summary is provided for each paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A preface for the 2008 issue of "Annals of Operations Research" is presented.

Since early 2010s, the Green Routing Problem (GRP) has dominated the literature of logistics and transportation. The problem itself consists of finding a set of vehicle routes for a set of customers while minimizing the detrimental effects of transportation activities. These negative externalities have been intensively tackled in the last decade. Operations research studies have particularly focused on minimizing the energy consumption and emissions. As a result, the rich literature on GRPs has already reached its peak, and several early literature reviews have been conducted on various aspects of related vehicle routing and scheduling problem variants. The major contribution of this paper is that it represents a comprehensive review of the current reviews on GRP studies. In addition to that, it is an up-to-date review based on a new chronological taxonomy of the literature. The detailed analysis provides a useful framework for understanding the research gaps for the future studies and the potential impacts for the academic community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]