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ABSTRACTClimate change may increase the risk of dengue and yellow fever transmission by urban and sylvatic mosquito vectors. Previous research primarily focused on Aedes aegyptiand Aedes albopictus. However, dengue and yellow fever have a complex transmission cycle involving sylvatic vectors. Our aim was to analyze how the distribution of areas favorable to both urban and sylvatic vectors could be modified as a consequence of climate change. We projected, to future scenarios, baseline distribution models already published for these vectors based on the favorability function, and mapped the areas where mosquitoes’ favorability could increase, decrease or remain stable in the near (2041–2060) and distant (2061–2080) future. Favorable areas for the presence of dengue and yellow fever vectors show little differences in the future compared to the baseline models, with changes being perceptible only at regional scales. The model projections predict dengue vectors expanding in West and Central Africa and in South-East Asia, reaching Borneo. Yellow fever vectors could spread in West and Central Africa and in the Amazon. In some locations of Europe, the models suggest a reestablishment of Ae. aegypti, while Ae. albopictuswill continue to find new favorable areas. The results underline the need to focus more on vectors Ae. vittatus, Ae. luteocephalusand Ae. africanusin West and Central sub-Saharan Africa, especially Cameroon, Central Africa Republic, and northern Democratic Republic of Congo; and underscore the importance of enhancing entomological monitoring in areas where populations of often overlooked vectors may thrive as a result of climate changes.

La Alcarria is one of the most significant regions for honey production in Spain. Times series data of the annual Alcarria honey production from 2000 to 2013 revealed that the total production was highly variable ranging from ca. 60,000 kg in 2000 to almost three times as much in 2011, but without a remarkable trend through time. We hypothesized that these local fluctuations in honey production may be explained by broad-scale climatic patterns. Based on the multiple linear models, we found a significant positive relationship between honey production as a function of the overall means of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and precipitation in January, which accounts for 80% of the variability in the Alcarria honey production. We propose that the effect of a negative phase of the NAO and precipitation in January could predict the Alcarria honey production a few months in advance.

Observed species richness (OSR) is a widely used and well-studied biodiversity metric. However, non-observed species in favorable ecosystems are also relevant. Two metrics that include observed and potential species were recently defined: potential biodiversity (hereafter potential species richness-PSR) and geometric mean of favorabilities (GMF). We used these metrics to evaluate the national park network of mainland Spain at two time periods (2002 and 2015), using terrestrial mammals on a UTM 100-km2grid. PSR and GMF are based on the favorability function, a species distribution model that assesses how favorable an area is for the presence of a species, over and above its prevalence in the study area. For each park and for the whole network, we calculated the mean and sum of OSR, PSR, and GMF in each time period, as well as changes between periods. OSR and PSR were higher inside than outside the park network in both time periods. Thus, although the network covers a very small proportion of the country, it performs well for the representation of mammal species and their favorable areas. However, mean PSR was lower in 2015 than in 2002 inside the national park network, whereas the opposite was the case outside the network. Mountainous Parks generally not only concentrated highly favorable areas for mammals, but they also showed less favorable areas in 2015 compared to 2002, although the reduction was moderate to low. This is a result to consider for future analyses because if the tendency increases, it may have consequences for the conservation of mammals and for the adequacy of the national park network.

Abstract: The idea of analysing the general favourability for the occurrence of an event was presented in 2006 through a mathematical function. However, even when favourability has been used in species distribution modelling, the conceptual framework of this function is not yet well perceived among many researchers. The present paper is conceived for providing a wider and more in-depth presentation of the idea of favourability; concretely, we aimed to clarify both the concept and the main distinctive characteristics of the favourability function, especially in relation to probability and suitability, the most common outputs in species distribution modelling. As the capabilities of the favourability function go beyond species distribution modelling, we also illustrate its usefulness for different research disciplines for which this function remains unknown. In particular, we stressed that the favourability function has potential to be applied in all the cases where the probability of occurrence of an event is analysed, such as, for example, habitat selection or epidemiological studies.

The aim of our work is to predict potentially optimal areas for red-legged partridge Alectoris rufahunting success in Andalusia (southern Spain) according to topographic, climatic and vegetation factors and their interaction. We analysed 32,134 annual hunting reports from the period 1993–2001 reported by 6,049 game estates to estimate the average hunting yields of red-legged partridge in each Andalusian municipality (N= 771). We modelled the favourability for obtaining good hunting yields using generalised linear models (GLM) on a set of climatic, topographic, land use and vegetation variables. The variables that affected hunting yields of red-legged partridge were dry herbaceous and wood crops, annual number of frost days, altitude and mean annual temperature. Vegetation was the most important factor of those considered in our study explaining the distribution of good hunting yields of the red-legged partridge in Andalusia. The favourability equation was used to create a downscaled image representing the favourability of obtaining good hunting yields for the red-legged partridge in 1 × 1-km squares in Andalusia, using the Idrisi Image Calculator. Downscaling the model from municipalities to 1 × 1-km squares provided a much higher spatial resolution when predicting the optimal areas for good hunting yields for the red-legged partridge.

AbstractWe carried out a biogeographical analysis of the genera Audouinella(Rhodophyta), Cystoseira(Phaeophyceae) and Cladophora(Chlorophyta), as well as the species in the three genera pooled together, in the western Mediterranean Sea and Adriatic Sea. For this purpose, the continental shelves close to 13 hydrographical watersheds were used as operational geographical units. The analysis was performed in accordance with a hypothetical–deductive approach. Four weak boundaries and five biotic regions were obtained for Audouinella; one strong and two weak boundaries, separating four biotic regions, were found for Cystoseira; two weak boundaries delimiting three biotic regions were obtained for Cladophora. The species of the three genera pooled together allowed us to separate three biotic regions delimited by two weak boundaries. The environmental factors that can explain the presence of the boundaries between biotic regions were run-off, distance of a given region from the Strait of Gibraltar following the course of the main current of the Mediterranean Sea, current flow, and salinity. The characterization of each biotic region and the relationships with the environmental factors that could explain the biotic boundaries are discussed.