Abstract: Based on gray error GM (1,1) model, the paper proposed an improved error GM (1,1) model, and used this model to predict cultivated land in Yiyang. The results show that the improved error GM (1,1) model has high prediction accuracy, and better simulation results. And the results conform to the cultivated quantity change rule of Yiyang City, that is, the land area of Yiyang City, will appear in the next few years, modest growth trend, but the per capita arable land is still in the alert level of the United Nations. Therefore, protection of cultivated resources, rational utilization and protection of arable land are urgent tasks. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]