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The article focuses on the development and implementation of a simulation model that predicts the spread of chickenpox in a population. It addresses issues related to strategic planning and management of vaccination against the Varicella Zoster virus, with a specific focus on the Altai Krai. The article presents the results of economic efficiency calculations for a single vaccination program targeting 6-year-old children. The simulation model utilizes a computational algorithm to predict the dynamics of the spread of chickenpox. The study examines various types of vaccination programs for children and compares the simulation results with real medical data from the Altai Krai. Statistical data on the incidence of chickenpox is used to inform the model. The study identifies optimal vaccination parameters and strategies for the Altai Krai through testing the simulation model. The model is implemented using Python programming language and graphically visualizes the virus's spread for different types of vaccination programs and in the absence of vaccination., Статья посвящена построению и реализации имитационной модели распространения ветряной оспы среди населения, рассмотрены вопросы управления и стратегического планирования вакцинопрофилак-тики вируса Varicella Zoster, приведены результаты расчетов экономической эффективности программы однократной вакцинации детей в возрасте 6 лет на примере Алтайского края. Приведен вычислительный алгоритм для компьютерного моделирования динамики распространения ветряной оспы. Рассмотрены особенности различных типов вакцинации детей. Проведен сравнительный анализ результатов моделирования с реальными медицинскими данными. В качестве информационного обеспечения модели были использованы статистические данные заболеваемости ветряной оспой по Алтайскому краю. В процессе тестирования модели были определены оптимальные параметры и оптимальная стратегия вакцинопрофилактики против вируса ветряной оспы на территории Алтайского края. Программная реализация модели осуществлена на высокоуровневом языке программирования Python. С помощью библиотек Python построены графики динамики распространения вируса при различных типах вакцинирования и без проведения подобных процедур.

Стаття присвячена дослідженню проблем управління інноваційними технологіями. З метою вивчення процесу розро-блення та накопичення інноваційних технологічних знань здійснено ендогенний аналіз розподілу економічних факторів у різ-них секторах економіки, зокрема секторі досліджень і розробок. Методологія дослідження базується на підході системної динаміки, який дає змогу системно вивчати динаміку складних економічних і соціальних проблем, враховуючи інформаційні та матеріальні затримки, а також петлі зворотних зв’язків та ендогенні причинно-наслідкові співвідношення. Побудовано комп’ютерну імітаційну модель для опису динаміки інноваційних технологій, проведено аналіз чутливості економічних змін-них системи на зміну різних параметрів, що визначають економічне зростання та темпи росту технологічних інновацій. Управління інноваційними процесами включає методи обробки інформації, прийняття ефективних рішень, генерування інно-ваційних ідей, розроблення ефективних послідовностей, створення нових продуктів, запровадження сучасних засобів впливу на споживачів. Більшість з них розробляються у науково-дослідницьких секторах економіки поряд з неперервним процесом накопичення знань, що отримуються в результаті емпіричних досліджень та практичного досвіду підприємців і менеджерів. Результати моделювання засвідчують, що управлінські рішення реагують на зміну параметрів, які зазнають непередбачу-ваних шоків, але динаміка технологічного зростання не залежить від початкових умов системи за умови запровадження ефективної політики публічного управління. Відтак, інноваційні технології отримуються як один із видів знань у секторі досліджень та розробок і використовуються всіма економічними агентами, включаючи державу та бізнес, а конкурентні ринкові сили не можуть повністю контролювати процеси розповсюдження та виробництва знань, які створюють інно-ваційні технології. Характер розвитку інноваційних технологій особливо важливий сьогодні, у ситуації невизначеності та високого ризику, проблем та викликів, які ми спостерігаємо під час війни в Україні. The article focused on the innovative technologies management problems investigation. The endogenous distribution of economic factors for research and development sectors have been evaluated in order to study the accumulation process of innovation and technologies. The research methodology is based on the system dynamics approach that gives the advantage to delve in dynamic problems for complex economic and social issues taking into account information and material delays as well as feedback and endogenous causality. The computer simulation model has been built to describe the dynamic of innovative technologies a-nd to perform the sensitivity analysis in order to investigate how change in different parameter of system affect the economic growth and its dynamic properties. The simulation results confirm that management policy decisions can change dramatically if parameters are influenced by unpredictable shocks but the behavior of technological growth does not depend on initial conditions of system if an effective management policy has been provided.

Energy is the main driving force to raise the economy of a nation. The demand for energy grows proportionally with the population of the country. The combined cycle technology is one of the most efficient and widely used technologies for power generation these days if natural gas is utilized as fuel. To meet the ever-growing electric energy demand with decreasing fossil fuel resources, it is necessary to further improve the performances of power generation systems. This can be done either by installing new plants with improved technology or by reducing losses within the existing plants. The present work investigates the thermodynamic performance of the existing Brayton-Rankine power plant currently in operation in India with actual operating data. Energy and exergy analyses of the said plant have been carried out through a computational model coded in MATLAB taking into consideration the important aspect of identifying the places and components of maximum thermodynamic losses which is the originality in the present work. Using the combustion energy of the fuel, which is 759.290 MW, the theoretical value of net power generated, overall thermal efficiency and exergetic efficiency of the plant is estimated to be 317.381 MW, 41.79 %, and 40.19 % respectively. The combustion chambers of the two gas turbines are turned out to be the most irreversible component with the maximum percentage of exergy destruction (14.9 %).

The object of research is preprint processes for the manufacture of audiobooks. The analytical and experimental studies reported here are based on the application of the methodology for devising a simulation model for calculating the complexity of preprint processes in the production of printed books with sound applications. The basic assumption of the study is that the use of simulation will contribute to the improvement of calculations of the complexity of preprint processes for making audiobooks. This cannot be achieved without analyzing the factors influencing the convenience of perception of textual and sound information and establishing the objective function of mutual influence of the text of the publication and audio. A methodology has been proposed for calculating the complexity of the preprint process of making audiobooks based on the developed algorithm of the technological process, mathematical representation of the structural model, as well as its components. It is shown that the process of creating audio accompaniment is affected by the content of printed pages, font design parameters, the selected format of page assembly, and the presence of illustrations. Based on the obtained expert assessments, a hierarchical representation of factors influencing the convenience of information perception is built; the interaction of parameters at different technological stages is described. The dependence of the complexity of the process of making audiobooks on the volume of the book edition in the accounting and publishing sheets, the size and capacity of the font, as well as the speed of sound recording of the printed text, has been established. It is determined that with an increase in font capacity within 200...1000 thousand characters, the calculated labor intensity increases by 5% to 20%. The largest limits of changes in the complexity of creating an audio accompaniment are 9%, at the stage of processing graphic information – 50%

У статті розроблено та досліджено імітаційну модель (на базі математичного процесора MatLab Simulink) інформаційно-вимірювальної системи електричних характеристик (залишкового поверхневого електричного заряду, ємності поверхневого шару тощо) функціональних покриттів електронних пристроїв. Основною метою цієї імітаційної моделі було визначення раціональних параметрів вимірювання розробленої авторами інформаційновимірювальної системи та керування нею, які б спростили процес налагодження такої системи, а також дослідження динамічних режимів її роботи. Основною перевагою розробленої імітаційної моделі є можливість проведення інтерактивного дослідження роботи інформаційно-вимірювальної системи в різних, зокрема граничних, режимах. Випробування імітаційної моделі інформаційно-вимірювальної системи дозволили дослідити її роботу за різних умов і режимів вимірювального експерименту, а також віртуально визначити раціональні параметри роботи такої вимірювально-керуючої системи. Встановлено задовільну розбіжність експериментальних результатів 8-11,5 % порівняно з даними, отриманими аналітичним шляхом, що підтверджує правильність і адекватність складеної моделі. The article has developed and researched a simulation model (based on the MatLab Simulink mathematical processor) of the information-measuring system of electrical characteristics (residual surface electric charge, surface layer capacitance, etc.) of functional coatings of electronic devices. The main goal of this simulation model is to determine the rational parameters of measurement and control of the information-measuring system developed by the authors, which would simplify the process of setting up such a system, as well as to study the dynamic modes of its operation. The main advantage of the developed simulation model is the possibility of conducting an interactive study of the operation of the information-measuring system in various, including marginal, regimes. Testing of the simulation model of the information-measuring system makes it possible to investigate its operation under various conditions and regimes of the measurement experiment, as well as to virtually determine the rational parameters of the operation of such a measurement and control system. A satisfactory discrepancy of experimental results of 8-11.5% is established in comparison with the data obtained analytically, which confirms the correctness and adequacy of the developed model. The practical value of the conducted research lies in the possibility of designing high-precision informationmeasuring systems, that take into account the results of simulation modeling, thus ensuring high accuracy (the relative error of determining the residual surface electric charge does not exceed 8-8.5%, and the capacitance of the surface layer does not exceed 4.5%) and repeatability (about 0.998) of the results of the conducted research. In the future, it is planned to carry out hardware implementation and research of the information-measuring system of functional coatings of electronic devices, which will be created taking into account the data obtained from the simulation model about the modes of determining electrical characteristics.

The characteristics of the input energy converter of an electric locomotive with an induction traction electric drive were studied. The efficiency of the 4QS converter has been increased and the level of current harmonic distortions in the power supply system has been reduced. The research resulted in proposals for improving the control algorithm of the input energy converter to improve the traction-energy indicators of the electric drive and reduce the emission of high-frequency harmonics into the contact network. The results were obtained on the basis of simulation modeling of the "traction transformer – 4QS-converter" system on the example of the alternating current electric locomotive DS3 (Dnipro-Simens-3). Modeling of the operation of the 4QS-converter of the electric locomotive was performed for the case of the maximum load of the drive under a traction mode. Two versions of the input converter control algorithm were studied and compared: the basic version of the DS3 electric locomotive and the modified version proposed by us. It was found that in the case of the basic variant of the converter control algorithm, conditions are created at certain time intervals when the capacitor of the constant voltage link on the secondary winding of the traction transformer is discharged under a traction mode. The consequence of this is a decrease in the efficiency factor of the converter and a deterioration of the harmonic distortion factor of the rectified voltage. In the modified algorithm, the discharge time of the capacitor of the constant voltage link on the secondary winding of the traction transformer is significantly reduced and the efficiency of the 4QS converter is increased, Досліджуються характеристики вхідного перетворювача енергії електричного локомотива з асинхронним тяговим електроприводом. Підвищено коефіцієнт корисної дії 4QS-перетворювача та знижено рівень гармонійних спотворень струму в системі живлення. Результатом досліджень стали пропозиції щодо удосконалення алгоритму керування вхідним перетворювачем енергії для покращення тягово-енергетичних показників електроприводу та зменшення емісії високочастотних гармонік в контактну мережу. Результати отримано на основі імітаційного моделювання системи «тяговий трансформатор – 4QS-перетворювач» на прикладі електровоза змінного струму ДС3 (Дніпро-Simens-3). Моделювання роботи 4QS-перетворювача електровоза виконано для випадку максимального навантаження приводу в тяговому режимі. Досліджувались і порівнювались два варіанти алгоритму керування вхідним перетворювачем: базовий варіант електровоза ДС3 і модифікований варіант – запропонований авторами. З’ясовано, що у випадку базового варіанту алгоритму управління перетворювачем в певні проміжки часу створюються умови, коли в тяговому режимі відбувається розрядка конденсатора ланки постійної напруги на вторинну обмотку тягового трансформатора. Наслідком цього є зниження коефіцієнта ефективності перетворювача та погіршення коефіцієнта гармонійних спотворень випрямленої напруги. В модифікованому алгоритмі час розрядки конденсатора ланки постійної напруги на вторинну обмотку тягового трансформатора значно скорочується та підвищується коефіцієнт корисної дії 4QS-перетворювача

The object of this study is the process of goods delivery in international road transport using various types of logistics chains. The problem being solved is due to the need to develop recommendations for exporters of goods to reformat or design new supply chains during wartime. The expediency of organizing foreign trade operations by the cargo owners' own forces or with the involvement of enterprises providing logistics consulting services is considered. A simulation model of goods delivery in international road traffic was built and implemented in the GPSS World simulation automation package. The model involves the optimization of organizational and technological processes related to the activity of both a separate link and the entire supply chain. The study takes into account the components of the time characteristics of the performance of preparatory work when establishing cooperation with institutions and organizations, as well as the direct service of the exporter. The application of the developed model in practical activities will provide an opportunity for exporters to obtain information about the duration and reliability of the stages of a foreign trade operation and the feasibility of involving consulting enterprises in cooperation. At the same time, the simulation results reflect the performance indicators of the proposed supply chains when delivering goods by road transport along various routes. The proposed simulation model will make it possible to reduce the time spent searching for links in the formation of a supply chain by 8–12 %, and the duration of a foreign trade operation by 10–14 %. Thus, the reliability of cooperation with intermediary organizations will increase by 8–11 %, Об’єктом дослідження є процес доставки товарів у міжнародному автомобільному сполученні із застосуванням різних типів логістичних ланцюгів. Проблема, що вирішувалася, обумовлена потребою у розробці рекомендацій для експортерів товарів щодо переформатування або розробки нових ланцюгів постачання під час війни. Розглянуто доцільність організації зовнішньоторговельних операцій власними силами вантажовласників або із залученням підприємств, що надають послуги з логістичного консалтингу. Розроблено та реалізовано імітаційну модель доставки товарів у міжнародному автомобільному сполученні в пакеті автоматизації імітаційного моделювання GPSS World. Модель передбачає оптимізацію організаційно-технологічних процесів, пов’язаних з діяльністю як окремої ланки, так і усього ланцюга постачання. В дослідженні враховано складові часових характеристик виконання підготовчих робіт при налагодженні співпраці з установами та організаціями, а також безпосереднього обслуговування експортера. Застосування розробленої моделі у практичній діяльності надасть можливість експортерам отримати інформацію про тривалість і надійність виконання етапів зовнішньоторговельної операції та доцільність залучення консалтингових підприємств до співпраці. При цьому результати моделювання відображають показники ефективності функціонування запропонованих ланцюгів постачань при доставці товарів автомобільним транспортом за різними маршрутами. Запропонована імітаційна модель дасть можливість скоротити час на пошуки ланок при формуванні ланцюга постачань на 8–12%, а тривалість виконання зовнішньоторговельної операції на 10–14%. Тим самим надійність співпраці з посередницькими організаціями зросте на 8–11%

Double-twisted hexagonal gabion wire mesh is a type of reinforced soil material that is used in gabion retaining walls to stabilize the soil slope in geotechnical engineering. In this study, a series of tensile tests were conducted to investigate the tensile behavior of hexagonal gabion wire mesh. Meanwhile, numerical models of gabion wire mesh were built to investigate the whole tensile loading-strain process. The influence of wire diameter, mesh width, and mesh length on the tensile strength of hexagonal gabion wire mesh were evaluated based on laboratory tests and numerical simulation. The quantitative relationship of tensile strength versus wire diameter, mesh width, and mesh length was typically fitted by a quadratic function, linear function, and monotonically decreasing exponential function. The numerical result presents a good consistency with those obtained from the experiment. The result of the loading-strain curve obtained by both experiment and simulation exhibits an “S” shape with a distinct serrated characteristic. The loading-strain curve can be divided into the following four stages: mesh distortion stage, wire stretching stage, overall yield stage, and wire fracture stage, which well reflects the tensile behavior of double-twisted hexagonal wire mesh. The tensile behavior of gabion wire mesh is influenced by the structure pattern of wire mesh and the mechanical characteristic of steel wire.

The economic evaluation of mastitis control is challenging. The objective of this study was to perform the economic evaluation of mastitis control, under different intervention scenarios, quantifying the total cost of mastitis caused by S. aureus in Holstein cows in Argentina. A model was set for a dairy herd of Holstein cows endemically infected with S. aureus. A basic mastitis control plan including proper milking procedures, milking machine test, dry cow therapy, and treatment for clinical mastitis, was compared against other more complex and costly interventions, such as segregation and culling of chronically infected cows. Sensitivity analysis was performed by modifying the intramammary infection transition probabilities, economic parameters, and efficacy of treatment strategies. The basic mastitis control plan showed a median total cost of USD88.6/cow per year, which was close to the infected cows culling scenarios outputs. However, the segregation scenario was the most efficient, in which the total cost was reduced by about 50%. Such cost was more sensitive to probabilities and efficacy than the economic parameters. The model is flexible and can be customized by producers and veterinarians according to different control and herd settings.

A city’s transport and distribution system requires the effective organization of urban freight deliveries that take into consideration the economic, ecological, and social impact. Implementation of the concept of green logistics necessitates the use of environmentally friendly and energy-efficient modes of transport, which consider the existing infrastructure and the possibility of its development. The aim of this work was to facilitate the transfer to rail transport, using the existing tramway infrastructure, those shipments which previously entered the city center by road. The paper proposes a simulation model for small consignments delivered by freight trams in the city of Poznań, Poland. Operational planning is carried out in conditions of uncertainty and risk. The uncertainty is due to the stochastic nature of the demand for products. The risk is characterized by the probability that, due to technological and technical limitations, a given customer will not be fully served from the distribution center. The authors provide a decision support tool for evaluating the possible locations of tram depots and for route planning. The assignment of the routes, with the criterion of minimizing the costs for the carrier, and with a limitation on tram operating time, is based on the use of genetic algorithms, which makes it possible to obtain a solution that is close to optimal, within a reasonable time period. As a result of a series of simulation experiments and statistical data processing, the distribution laws and expected average values of the technological parameters were determined for the functioning of the city transport and distribution system under conditions of uncertainty and risk.

The article describes a study of ship delays on the Świnoujście-Szczecin waterway observed by the VTS operator. The research has led to an understanding of the factors that affect delays of ships calling at the ports of Szczecin and Police, as well as the possibilities of predicting and preventing these delays. This article presents the results of the study on the traffic intensity on the investigated waterway and the process of identifying the port regulation that causes the most frequent delays. Based on the obtained results from the statistical analysis and from using multiple regression, a statistical model has been developed that has the ability to estimate expected delays. Additionally, the model has been expanded to calculate financial losses resulting from delays, taking into account the daily cost of maintaining the studied ships. The study took place during ongoing project “Modernization of the Świnoujście-Szczecin waterway to a depth of 12.5 m” but does not include delays resulting from this project.

Surface irrigation methods enable a lower cost of investment and energy requirements than pressurized systems if they are designed and managed properly. The aim of this investigation was to devise a new simulation model that would enable the determination of the optimum water application time and furrow length in a blocked end furrow system. The infiltration properties of the soil, net irrigation water requirement of the crop and inflow to the furrow constitute the main variables of this process. Deep percolation and the cross-sectional area of the wetting pattern where the net irrigation water requirement of the crop is met along the furrow are the main components that were simulated interactively in the model. They were described as a function of time. The proposed model devised in this investigation was run for two different sample applications. While values of 93 and 94% water application efficiencies were obtained by running the USDA SCS method for the first and second sample applications, respectively, values of 92 and 94% were obtained, respectively, from the proposed model. These results indicate that the proposed model can be used in the design of a blocked end furrow system.

Digitalization in manufacturing is the conversion of information into digital format, the integration of this digital data and technologies into the manufacturing process and the use of those technologies (eg: simulation) to change a business model to provide new revenue and value-producing opportunities. Digitalization may be seen as the increased generation, analysis, and use of data to improve the efficiency of the overall manufacturing system. Simulation in manufacturing is often applied in situations where conducting experiments on a real system is impossible or very difficult due to cost or time to carry out the experiment is too long. A key input to the simulation model of automated equipment is the acquisition of valid data in relation to cycle time and reliability of various workstations on this line. As a consequence of being able to simulate equipment processes and interact with this validated simulation model, both the understanding of how the production system will perform under varying reliability and cycle time conditions is achieved. The simulation model then enables the experimentation of ‘what if scenarios’ that can be tested easily, while also providing a valuable tool to inform the maintenance personnel what station reliabilities they need to target in order to sustain a high performing manufacturing line. The author has adopted an open source simulation tool (JaamSim) to develop a digital model of an automated production line in a Johnson & Johnson Vision Care (JJVC) manufacturing facility. This research demonstrated how a digital model was validated for use. The validated digital model can then be used by the author/facility engineering teams to perform scenario testing during the design stage of the line. This simulation model can also be used as a subset of an optimization system to determine recommended optimum line parameters to maximize line performance, either during the line design or when line is in operation. yes

Hyper-compressors play an important role in polymer production. However, due to the extremely high pressure and complex geometries, it is difficult to monitor and calculate the thermodynamic characteristics and pressure pulsation. In this research, a three-dimensional (3D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of a hyper-compressor with a central valve and piston movements based on a real gas model (RGM) was developed to analyze the thermodynamic performance and pressure pulsation. Then, the p−θ diagram of the working chamber and the dynamic pressure internal pipe were constructed using a nondestructive testing approach and showed a strong correlation with the pressure sensor data. The 3D-CFD model’s results correlated well with the experimental data. The deviation error between simulation values and experimental data of the indicated power was 1.77%. Lastly, the numerical model was used to analyze the hyper-compressor’s performance, power loss, dynamic features of the central valve and pressure pulsation.

Background: As mental health in adulthood is related to mental status during adolescence, school-based interventions have been proposed to improve resilience. The objective of this study was to build a simulation model representing the natural history of mental disorders in childhood, adolescence and youth to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the UPRIGHT school-based intervention in promoting resilience and mental health in adolescence. Methods: We built a discrete event simulation model fed with real-world data (cumulative incidence disaggregated into eight clusters) from the Basque Health Service database (609,381 individuals) to calculate utilities (quality-adjusted life years [QALYs]) and costs for the general population in two scenarios (base case and intervention). The model translated changes in the wellbeing of adolescents into different risks of mental illnesses for a time horizon of 30 years. Results: The number of cases of anxiety was estimated to fall by 5,125 or 9,592 and those of depression by 1,269 and 2,165 if the effect of the intervention lasted 2 or 5 years respectively. From a healthcare system perspective, the intervention was cost-effective for all cases considered with incremental cost-utility ratios always lower than €10,000/QALY and dominant for some subgroups. The intervention was always dominant when including indirect and non-medical costs (societal perspective). Conclusions: Although the primary analysis of the trial did not did not detect significant differences, the UPRIGHT intervention promoting positive mental health was dominant in the economic evaluation from the societal perspective. Promoting resilience was more cost-effective in the most deprived group. Despite a lack of information about the spillover effect in some sectors, the economic evaluation framework developed principally for pharmacoeconomics can be applied to interventions to promote resilience in adolescents. As prevention of mental health disorders is even more necessary in the post-coronavirus disease-19 era, such evaluation is essential to assess whether investment in mental health promotion would be good value for money by avoiding costs for healthcare providers and other stakeholders. This work has been conducted within the UPRIGHT project, which is funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 framework programme for research and innovation under grant agreement No. 754919. This paper reflects only the views of the authors, and the European Union is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains. The funding body has had no role in the study design, writing of the protocol or the decision to submit the paper for publication.

A field water balance model for efficient irrigation water management of corn was developed using Excel VBA. The model consists of five sub-components or modules, namely, (1) a plant subcomponent, (2) an effective rainfall subcomponent, (3) an evapotranspiration subcomponent, (4) a soil water dynamics subcomponent for the modeling of water flow into and within the soil layers, and (5) an irrigation subcomponent for the estimation of the required amount and timing of irrigation. The model was calibrated and validated using observed data from field experiments and the results showed a reasonably good agreement between the observed and simulated soil moisture values (MAE = 5.76 mm to 12.00 mm, RMSE = 6.83 mm to 13.12 mm, NRMSE = 0.102 to 0.196, and NSE = 0.37 to 0.90). The simulations emphasized that a significant amount of water savings can be achieved when rainfall is properly accounted for in managing water in the field, and that the frequency of rainfall occurrences is as important as the magnitude of rainfall received by the crops. The wide-ranging user-friendliness and simplicity of the model developed in this study can pave the way to eliminating the barriers which cause farmers to resist advancements in their farming practices as the model can easily be used not only by researchers and scientists but also by farmers, especially those with basic knowledge of spreadsheets.

Operation mode of hot rolling mill finishing group stands of ArcelorMittal Temirtau JSC electric drives along with thyristor converter units, intended for the drives supply effect significantly the power network parameters. While being carried out the experimental research on operating modes of power network supplying the rolling mill, some oscillograms were constructed that indicate voltage during the rolling process. Analyzing the oscillograms it appears that there are unacceptable voltage drops throughout the network (more than 10%), that, in its turn, effects negatively the main and auxiliary electric drives functioning. Electric drive simulation model have been constructed with the aim accomplishment to learn more about operating modes features of finishing group stands electric drives as well as power network supplying the hot rolling mill, where the main objective is getting the decreased parameters of their mutual influence. The scientific project purpose is verification of the mathematical model choice correctness, construction of a simulation model of the electric drive control system for the main drives of the hot rolling mill stands, taking into consideration the parameters of the power supply network and checking its adequacy.

Robotic bin-picking performance has been gaining attention in recent years with the development of increasingly advanced camera and machine vision systems, collaborative and industrial robots, and sophisticated robotic grippers. In the random bin-picking process, the wide variety of objects in terms of shape, weight, and surface require complex solutions for the objects to be reliably picked. The challenging part of robotic bin-picking is to determine object pick-points correctly. This paper presents a simulation model based on ADAMS/MATLAB cosimulation for robotic pick-point evaluation for a 2-F robotic gripper. It consists of a mechanical model constructed in ADAMS/View, MATLAB/Simulink force controller, several support functions, and the graphical user interface developed in MATLAB/App Designer. Its functionality can serve three different applications, such as: (1) determining the optimal pick-points of the object due to object complexity, (2) selecting the most appropriate robotic gripper, and (3) improving the existing configuration of the robotic gripper (finger width, depth, shape, stroke width, etc.). Additionally, based on this analysis, new variants of robotic grippers can be proposed. The simulation model has been verified on a selected object on a sample 2-F parallel robotic gripper, showing promising results, where up to 75% of pick-points were correctly determined in the initial testing phase. Nasl. z nasl. zaslona. Opis vira z dne 27. 2. 2023. Bibliografija: str. 28-29. Abstract.

The pantograph–catenary arc of urban rail has the characteristic of high temperature, which directly acts on the surface of the pantograph–catenary system, will seriously ablate pantograph and contact line, and affect the flow of the pantograph–catenary system. In this paper, based on MHD, a mathematical model of the arcing of urban rail pantograph–catenary system is established. COMSOL finite element software was used to simulate the arc temperature field of the pantograph–catenary arc. Through the temperature distribution cloud diagram and related images, the relationship between the arc central temperature, the duration, and the gap of the pantograph arc were studied. It is found that the arc temperature increases with the increase in arc duration when the arc gap is fixed. When the arc duration is fixed, the arc center temperature changes inversely with the increase in the arc gap. The feasibility of the simulation model is verified by the pantograph–catenary arc experiment platform. The research conclusion of this paper can provide a certain basis for the research of arc erosion on the surface of the pantograph–catenary system.

In this article, a calculation model for a fuel system of a light helicopter was developed for experimental and operational testing. The model analyzes the operation of not only the units, but also the whole fuel system, offering the basis for functional tests and failure detection. For an actual model-based design, it is necessary to ensure that the model conforms to a real object or process. This article addressed the problems of ensuring the accuracy of the calculation and the computational speed when developing a reliable mathematical model of an actual technological system using structural modeling methods. A system with evaluation criteria allows complex field tests to be replaced with validated calculation models.

Aim. The study intends to optimize customs clearance formalities for goods of various nomenclature in the territory of customs checkpoints of freight customs complexes. The proposed development will allow customs authorities to plan the staffing level of inspectors capable of ensuring the uninterrupted operation of the infrastructure facility, taking into account the utilized capacity and the cargo flow structure. Methods. The quality assessment of the customs and logistics service of goods of various nomenclature in the organization of international transportation is carried out on the basis of a simulation model developed in the GPSS software environment. Results. The practical experience of customs authorities shows that the customs regime in which the goods are moved and their nomenclature bring about changes in how long customs formalities take. Accordingly, the procedures related to customs clearance and customs control by the types of goods will differ in their complexity, and therefore will affect the customs inspector`s workload. In turn, customs authorities` working efficiency will shape the capacity of the freight customs complex and its structural subdivisions. The main segment of customs and logistics service customers chooses infrastructure facilities, where there are small waiting lines and minimal procedure time without the loss of service quality. Scientific novelty. The developed simulation model of customs inspectors` work in the territory of the freight customs complex makes it possible to evaluate the effectiveness of the customs checkpoint as well as to determine the optimal staffing level to ensure the operation of the infrastructure facility. Practical implications. The practical implications of the work lie in the fact that the proposed model makes it possible to assess customs inspectors` workload taking into account the structure of the cargo flow, which may include goods of different nomenclature that are moved in different customs regimes by large-, medium-, small- and micro-sized enterprises. Based on the results of the simulation, the owner of a freight customs complex will have the opportunity to plan its material, technical and staffing support in order to provide high-quality customs and logistics services, and accordingly, the State Customs Service will organize the work of the customs checkpoint taking into account the demand of entities engaged in foreign economic activities for completing customs formalities., Метою роботи є оптимізація процесу митного оформлення товарів різної номенклатури на території митних постів вантажних митних комплексів. Запропонована розробка дозволить митним органам планувати штатну чисельність інспекторів, здатних забезпечити безперебійну роботу об’єкта інфраструктури з урахуванням рівня завантаженості та структури вантажопотоку. Методика. Оцінка якості митно-логістичного обслуговування товарів різної номенклатури при організації міжнародних перевезень виконувалась на основі імітаційної моделі, розробленої в програмному середовищі GPSS. Результати. Практичний досвід роботи митних органів свідчить про те, що в залежності від митного режиму в якому переміщується товар та його номенклатури прослідковуються зміни у тривалості виконання митних формальностей. Відповідно процедури пов’язані з виконанням митного оформлення та митного контролю за типами товарів будуть відрізнятися за своєю складністю, а отже впливатимуть на завантаженість митного інспектора. В свою чергу ефективність роботи митних органів формуватиме пропускну спроможність роботи вантажного митного комплексу та його структурних підрозділів. Основний сегмент замовників митно-логістичних послуг віддає перевагу в обслуговуванні об’єктам інфраструктури, де спостерігаються незначні черги очікування та мінімальний час виконання процесів без втрати якості сервісу. Наукова новизна. Розроблена імітаційна модель роботи митних інспекторів на території вантажного митного комплексу дозволяє здійснити оцінку ефективності діяльності митного поста та визначити оптимальну кількість фахівців для забезпечення роботи об’єкта інфраструктури. Практична значимість. Практична значимість роботи полягає в тому, що запропонована модель дозволяє здійснити оцінку завантаженості митних інспекторів з урахуванням структури вантажопотоку, до складу якого можуть входити товари різної номенклатури, що переміщується в різних митних режимах великими, середніми, малими та мікропідприємствами. Виходячи з результатів моделювання власник вантажного митного комплексу матиме можливість планувати матеріально-технічне та кадрове забезпечення об’єкта інфраструктури з метою надання якісного митно-логістичного сервісу, а відповідно, Державна митна служба організує роботу митного поста з урахуванням попиту суб’єктів зовнішньоекономічної діяльності на виконання митних формальностей.

In a world with high energy cost, the efficiency of motors becomes increasingly important. Thereby, the understanding of loss mechanics is of great significance and having accurate simulation models for the efficiency of motors is crucial. Bosch Rexroth Mellansel has developed a new radial piston hydraulic motor with high power, capable of operating at high torque and speed. In this master thesis the newly developed motor will be examined and undergo a lab test to determine its efficiency. The results from this will then be used to improve the current simulation model and aim for a physical model that align with the efficiency results. Furthermore, the loss mechanics of the motor is important and will be studied during this thesis. The loss mechanics in a motor can be split into two parts, hydro-mechanical and volumetric losses. Hydro-mechanical losses refer to the losses due to both friction and hydraulic flow. The losses in the fluid flow are in turn divided into two parts, the major losses and the minor losses which are the friction losses in the fluid and the losses due to geometric changes in the channels respectively. The volumetric losses are on the other hand the losses from internal and external leakage of the hydraulic fluid, and compression flow which is the extra flow that occurs when the fluid changes density. In order to determine efficiency values from a radial piston hydraulic motor, a test specification was written containing the information needed to perform the test, including two different methods, the pressure and torque method, and the sensors needed to measure the different parameters. For the hydro-mechanical efficiency the uncertainty is 0.1% for the pressure method and 0.15% for the torque method. The test was performed for several different rotational speeds and different pressure points. An improved model was developed from the test results by testing and optimization, and it was found that having the losses due to geometric changes in the channels, depend on Reynolds number agreed better with the test result. However, the improved simulation model does not align as well with the test result for all measured points. Hence a further investigation on the friction model and the dependence on pressure might improve the model further. However, it was found that for a specific sub test, the new model had a mean difference from the pressure method test result of 10^-3. While the mean difference for the unaltered simulation model was 10^-2, hence the new simulation model is an improvement. Therefore, the outcome of this master thesis is an improved simulation model for the newly developed radial piston hydraulic motor QMp 560-560 but also for future motors to come.

Simulacijsko modeliranje pokazalo se kao pouzdana metoda predviđanja zemljišnih promjena koja omogućuje bolje razumijevanje i upravljanje ljudskim utjecajem na okoliš. U radu su analizirane i modelirane promjene zemljišnoga pokrova i načina korištenja zemljišta u Donjoneretvanskom kraju u razdoblju od 1990. do 2035. godine. Konačni simulacijski model budućih promjena izrađen je na temelju staničnih automata i umjetnih neuronskih mreža, implementiranih u dodatku MOLUSCE za QGIS. Izrađen je i testni simulacijski model za 2020., čija je validacija pokazala visoku razinu točnosti. Ulazne varijable za konačni simulacijski model uključivale su digitalni model reljefa (DEM), nagib padina, udaljenost od vodenih površina, udaljenost od izgrađenih površina te gustoću naseljenosti po naseljima iz 2011. i 2021. Rezultati pokazuju da će se šume i travnjaci proširiti i zauzimati gotovo 45 % područja. Očekuje se da će izgrađene i poljoprivredne površine blago porasti, dok će udio močvara, vodenih površina i područja s oskudnom vegetacijom biti smanjen., It has been shown that simulation models are reliable tools for predicting land changes, which contributes to better understanding and management of human impact on the environment. Land use and land cover changes in the Lower Neretva Region between 1990 and 2035 have been analysed and modelled in this study. The final simulation model of future changes was created based on cellular automata and artificial neural networks, implemented in the MOLUSCE plugin for QGIS. In addition, a test simulation model for 2020 was created, which showed high accuracy. Input variables for the final simulation model included a digital elevation model (DEM), slope, distance from water bodies, distance from built-up areas, and population density by settlement in 2011 and 2021. According to the results, forests and grasslands will expand and occupy almost 45% of the area. A slight increase in built-up and agricultural areas is expected, while swamps, water bodies, and sparse vegetation areas will decrease.

В данной работе были рассмотрены различные испытательные машины, изучен принцип и особенности работы разрывной машины для статических испытаний металлов Р-10. Проведены расчеты геометрических параметров гидроцилиндров (основного рабочего и захватов), прочностной и расчет на устойчивость. Также, исходя из перечисленных расчетов подобран рабочий насос и среда – масло. Смоделированы детали модели в пакете программ SolidWorks, а в пакете MATLAB Simscape составлена сборка разрывной машины и добавлена система с гидроприводом. В результате исследования была получена имитационная модель статической разрывной машины для металлов, при помощи которой было проведено моделирование испытания на растяжение. Для этого был выбран образец стали известной марки с заранее определенными геометрическими параметрами. После чего к образцу были приложены различные усилия, и сняты показания удлинения образца. На основе этого был получен график. Затем с помощью данных усилие/перемещение и начальных геометрических параметров были рассчитаны пределы пропорциональности, текучести, прочности на основании которых и был определен материал образца. Данный пример демонстрирует правильность разработки подобных моделей в системе MATLAB, которые могут позволить провести детальные исследования процессов работы механизмов машины во время испытаний, в том числе оценить характеристики гидравлической системы разрывной испытательной машины. In this dissertation, various testing machines were considered, the principle and features of the operation of a tensile testing machine for static testing of metals R-10 were studied. Calculations of the geometrical parameters of hydraulic cylinders (main working and grippers), strength and stability calculations were carried out. Also, based on the above calculations, a working pump and a medium - oil were selected. The details of the model were modeled in SolidWorks, and the tensile testing machine assembly was assembled in MATLAB Simscape and the hydraulic actuator system was added. As a result of the study, a simulation model of a static tensile testing machine for metals was obtained, with the help of which a simulation of a tensile test was carried out. For this, a sample of well-known brand steel with predetermined geometric parameters was selected. After that, various forces were applied to the sample, and indications of the elongation of the sample were taken. Based on this, a graph was obtained. Then, using the force / displacement data and the initial geometric parameters, the limits of proportionality, yield, strength were calculated, on the basis of which the sample material was determined. This example demonstrates the correctness of developing such models in MATLAB. They can make it possible to conduct detailed studies of the operation of the machine mechanisms during testing, including the evaluation of the characteristics of the hydraulic system of the tensile testing machine.

В статье обоснована необходимость построения экономико-математической модели оценки уровня устойчивого развития предприятия в условиях smart-промышленности. В основу предлагаемой модели включены экономическая, экологическая и социальная составляющие устойчивого развития и определены основополагающие компоненты каждого вида устойчивости. Предложен агрегированный показатель для оценки уровня устойчивого развития предприятия в условиях smart-промышленности. На основе предложенного агрегированного показателя устойчивого развития предприятия в условиях smart-промышленности выведена динамическая система эконометрических уравнений и тождеств. По предложенному агрегированному показателю на основе регрессионного анализа построены модели для предприятий технологической отрасли и предприятий, осуществляющих деятельность в сфере добыче углеводородов. Для определения уровня устойчивого развития анализируемых предприятий на период 2022-2026 гг. рассчитаны прогнозные значения комплексного показателя устойчивого развития предприятий на основе модели Хольта-Винтерса. По прогнозным значениям построена матрица сравнительного уровня устойчивого развития предприятий в условиях smart-промышленности, которая позволяет распределить хозяйствующие субъекты по сегментам и предложить дальнейшие направления их развития. На основе построенной матрицы выявлено, к какому сегменту в будущем будут относится анализируемые предприятия., The article substantiates the need to build an economic and mathematical model for assessing the level of sustainable development of an enterprise in a smart industry. The proposed model is based on the economic, environmental and social components of sustainable development and identifies the fundamental components of each type of sustainability. An aggregate indicator has been proposed to assess the level of sustainable development of an enterprise in a smart industry. On the basis of the proposed aggregated indicator of sustainable development of an enterprise in a smart industry, a dynamic system of econometric equations and identities has been derived. Based on the proposed aggregated indicator, based on regression analysis, models were built for enterprises in the technology industry and enterprises operating in the field of hydrocarbon production. To determine the level of sustainable development of the analyzed enterprises for the period 2022-2026 predictive values of a complex indicator of sustainable development of enterprises are calculated based on the Holt-Winters model. Based on the predicted values, a matrix of the comparative level of sustainable development of enterprises in the conditions of smart industry was built, which allows distributing economic entities by segments and suggesting further directions for their development. Based on the constructed matrix, it was revealed which segment the analyzed enterprises will belong to in the future., Экономика и предпринимательство, Выпуск 5 (154) 2023, Pages 1053-1058

U ovom diplomskom radu analizirane su prostorno-vremenske promjene LU/LC-a za prostor Značajnog krajobraza „Baraćeve špilje“ u razdoblju od 1960. do 2021. godine. Osnovna svrha istraživanja je kroz analizu prostorno-vremenske dinamike promjena zemljišnog pokrova dobivenim spoznajama pomoći stručnim službama i donosiocima odluka u upravljanju „Baraćevih špilja“. Ispitana je mogućnost primjene zračnih snimaka DGU-a u slučaju da zbog male površine istraživanja nije moguća primjena besplatno dostupnih satelitskih snimaka slabije prostorne rezolucije. Hibridnom metodom klasifikacije izvedeni su LU/LC modeli za odabrane godine unutar proučavanog razdoblja. Kao najtočniji klasifikacijski algoritam u izdvajanju LU/LC modela se pokazao SVM. Izrađen je simulacijski modela LU/LC „Baraćevih špilja“ 2031. godinu primjenom ekstenzije MOLUSCE u QGIS programu. Promjene u izvedenim LU/LC modelima utvrđene kroz deskriptivnu statistiku unutar promatranog razdoblja uključuju smanjenje površina klasa niska vegetacija i kultivirane površine te povećanje površina klasa šume, grmolika vegetacija i urbani objekti. Navedene promjene su rezultat procesa prirodne sukcesije vegetacije, sekundarne sukcesije, deagrarizacije, deruralizacije i urbanizacije. Izvorni krajolik ZK je bio prekriven travnjacima i pašnjacima koji je s vremenom, a time i zaštitom tog prostora postupno počeo obrastati u šikare i šume. Glavni razlog pojave sekundarne sukcesije jest prestanak antropogenog utjecaja na prostor koji je u konačnici omogućio širenje navedenim vrstama. Porast površine klase urbani objekti rezultat je izgradnje infrastrukture nakon zaštite prostora. Poticanjem „tradicionalnog“ oblika antropogenog utjecaja dopuštenog na ovoj razini zaštite sačuvat će se izvornost prirodnog i kulturnog krajolika. Ovim postupcima omogućit će se očuvanje bioraznolikosti te održati uvjete zbog kojih prostor valoriziran. In this research, spatio-temporal changes of LU/LC for the area of the Significant Landscape "Baraćeve špilje" in the period from 1960 to 2021 were analyzed. The main purpose of the research was to help decision-makers in the management of the "Barać Caves" through the analysis of the spatio-temporal dynamics of LU/LC changes. The possibility of using aerial images of DGU was examined in the event that, due to the small area of research, it is not possible to use freely available satellite images of lower spatial resolution. LU/LC models for selected years within the studied period were derived using the hybrid classification method. SVM proved to be the most accurate classification algorithm in extracting LU/LC models. A simulation model of the LU/LC "Barac Caves" was created for 2031 using the MOLUSCE extension in the QGIS program. Changes in the derived LU/LC models determined through descriptive statistics within the observed period include a decrease in the areas of the low vegetation and cultivated areas and an increase in the areas of the forest, bushy vegetation and urban objects classes. The mentioned changes are the result of the process of natural succession of vegetation, secondary succession, deagrarization, deruralization and urbanization. The original landscape of ZK was covered with lawns and pastures, which over time, and thus with the protection of this area, gradually began to grow into bushy vegetation and forests. The main reason for the appearance of secondary succession is the cessation of anthropogenic influence on the area, which ultimately enabled the spread of the mentioned species. The increase in the area of the class urban objects is the result of the construction of infrastructure after the protection of the area. Encouraging the "traditional" form of anthropogenic impact, allowed at this level of protection, will preserve the originality of the natural and cultural landscape. These procedures will enable the preservation of biodiversity and maintain the conditions due to which the space is valorized.

Представлены три подхода к описанию боевых действий и результаты их моделирования: теоретико-игровые модели оптимального распределения сил и средств сторон по направлениям и эшелонам (задачам) в тактических моделях встречного боя, наступления и обороны; расширение моделей динамики боевых действий Осипова – Ланчестера; имитационные модели боя подразделений. В качестве показателя эффективности боевых действий предложено использовать вероятностную функцию победы одной из сторон, зависящую от их численностей и боевого превосходства одной из сторон. Теоретико-игровые модели «наступление–оборона» (встречный бой) решаются в два этапа. На первом этапе по одному из трех критериев (прорыв слабейшего пункта, прорыв хотя бы одного пункта, средневзвешенная вероятность прорыва с учетом ценности пунктов) находятся оптимальные распределения сил и средств сторон по пунктам (по фронту) и значения игры. На втором этапе по двум критериям находятся оптимальные распределения сил и средств между тактическими задачами (эшелонами) в предположении, что при решении ближайшей задачи стороны руководствуются критерием прорыва слабейшего пункта обороны. Также приведена формулировка задачи маскировки с использованием подхода рефлексивных игр. В последнем разделе предложен алгоритм с дискретным временем для моделирования боя подразделений. Предложено учитывать характеристики места боя, динамику положения боевых единиц сторон, типы единиц (от которых зависит средняя скорость единиц, дальность обнаружения и эффективного поражения), БЛА, угол обстрела, влияние маскировки. Для проверки предложенного алгоритма построена имитационная модель встречного боя, с помощью которой получены зависимости победы одной стороны от параметра решительности. Обсуждаются перспективы подходов., The paper presents three approaches to the description of combat operations and the modeling results: game-theoretic models of the optimal distribution of forces and means of the parties in directions and echelons (tasks) in tactical models of oncoming combat offensive and defense; expansion of the Osipov-Lanchester models of the dynamics of combat operations; simulation models of combat units. As an indicator of the effectiveness of combat operations, it is proposed to use the probability function of the victory of one of the parties, depending on their numbers and the combat superiority of one of the parties. Game-theoretic models of "offensive-defense" (oncoming combat) are solved in two stages. At the first stage, according to one of the three criteria (breakthrough of the weakest point, breakthrough of at least one point, weighted average probability of a breakthrough taking into account the value of the points), the optimal distribution of the forces and means of the parties by points (along the front) and the value of the game are found. At the second stage, according to two criteria, the optimal distribution of forces and means between tactical tasks (echelons) is found under the assumption that when solving the immediate task, the parties are guided by the criterion of breaking through the weakest point of defense. The formulation of the masking problem using the approach of reflexive games is also given. The last section proposes a discrete-time algorithm for simulating units combat. It is proposed to take into account the characteristics of the battlefield, the dynamics of the position of combat units of the parties, the types of units (which determine the average speed of units, the range of detection and effective defeat), UAVs, the angle of fire, the effect of camouflage. To test the proposed algorithm, a simulation model of an oncoming battle was built, with the help of which the dependencies of the victory of one side on the decisiveness parameter were obtained. The perspectives of the approaches are discussed., Управление большими системами: сборник трудов, Выпуск 103 2023, Pages 40-77

Описана методика создания имитационной прогнозной модели и использование ее в антимонопольном регулировании экономической деятельности железной дороги. The article describes the method of creating a simulation predictive model and its use in the antimonopoly regulation of the economic activity of the railway.

Для выявления недостатков гидропривода щеточного узла коммунальной машины и разработки мероприятий по их устранению необходима имитационная модель с возможностью изменения кинематических и динамических параметров. В ходе данной работы создана твердотельная имитационная модель щеточного узла МК2000 с подключенным гидроприводом используя пакета программ MATLAB Simulink Multibody/Fluids. Наличие имитационной модели позволяет в дальнейшем анализировать изменения в динамике механизма на этапе проектирования. In order to identify the shortcomings of the hydraulic drive of the brush unit of a utility vehicle and develop measures to eliminate them, a simulation model with the possibility of changing kinematic and dynamic parameters is needed. In the course of this work, a solid-state simulation model of the MK2000 brush assembly with a connected hydraulic drive was created using the MATLAB Simulink Multibody/Fluids software package. The presence of a simulation model allows further analysis of changes in the dynamics of the mechanism at the design stage.

В статье представлены информационно-аналитическая модель и алгоритмы поддержки управления оповещением населения при лесных и ландшафтных (природных) пожарах (далее пожарах). Предлагается решение проблемы своевременного оповещения населения, оценки достаточности сил и средств, а также повышения эффективности функционирования единой государственной системы предупреждения и ликвидации чрезвычайных ситуаций (далее РСЧС) с использованием математического аппарата, имитационного моделирования и прогноза развития лесных и ландшафтных (природных) пожаров. Разработанный инструмент предназначен для поддержки принятия управленческих решений - председателей комиссии по предупреждению чрезвычайных ситуаций и обеспечению пожарной безопасности, на этапе прогнозирования пожаров., The article presents an information-analytical model and algorithms for supporting the management of public notification during forest and landscape (natural) fires (hereinafter referred to as fires). A solution to the problem of timely notification of the population, assessment of the sufficiency of forces and means, as well as improving the efficiency of the functioning of the unified state system for the prevention and elimination of emergency situations (hereinafter RSChS) using a mathematical apparatus, simulation modeling and forecasting the development of forest and landscape (natural) fires is proposed. The developed tool is designed to support managerial decision-making - the chairmen of the commission for the prevention of emergency situations and ensuring fire safety, at the stage of fire forecasting., Сибирский пожарно-спасательный вестник, Выпуск 2 (29) 2023, Pages 95-106

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 is considered endemic in most parts of Indonesia and constitutes an important risk for broiler production, especially in Western Java which has the highest poultry population in the country. Most broiler farms in Western Java are smallholder farms that operate under different business types: independent (i.e., revenues based on market price and live bird weight), price-contract (i.e., revenues based on a contract selling price and live bird weight) or makloon (i.e., revenues based on a management fee per sold bird). Many studies focus on the epidemiological impacts of HPAI at the regional level, and insights into the economic impact at the farm level are scarce, especially in the Indonesian context. Meanwhile, a single HPAI outbreak could disrupt smallholder broiler farmers' primary source of income. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the economic impact of HPAI outbreaks under different response scenarios (i.e., no action, stamping out, and early selling) on typical Western Java smallholder broiler farms. Furthermore, the effect of different farm business types and the existence of a sick-bird market on the economic effects of HPAI outbreaks were evaluated. We developed a dynamic stochastic bio-economic simulation model to simulate epidemiological and economic impacts of HPAI outbreaks on a typical Western Java smallholder broiler farm during one production round. Our results show that the economic consequences of HPAI outbreaks for independent and price-contract farms are considerable, ranging from, on average, 1.2-62.7 million Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) losses (€76.9 to €3919), depending on the moment of and response to infection, compared to an expected gross margin of 5.3 million IDR (€331) under normal circumstances. The economic loss for makloon farms was substantially lower than for other business types, reducing their incentive to implement biosecurity. The economic impacts were sensitive to changes in a diverse set of parameters, including disease transmission rate, detection threshold, and stamping-out compensation. The losses in a scenario with stamping out were higher than in other scenarios, especially when stamping out happened near the end of the production round. Moreover, reacting to an outbreak by selling chickens early gave the lowest economic losses, incentivizing farmers to engage in behavior with a high disease transmission risk. Therefore, the results of this study suggest that it is important to consider the economic perspective of individual farmers when designing HPAI mitigation programs. Financial incentives for farmers to control HPAI differ largely between farm business types.

Energy demand forecasting has been more vital in recent years with countries setting goals to become climate neutral by 2050. Indeed, energy demand forecasting allows the understanding of drivers of the energy demand in all sectors of the economy. It also allows the planning of transformation of the future energy system. This study focuses on forecasting energy demand in Europe using a multi-country bottom-up modelling approach. The work explores ways of collecting large quantity of data to feed an energy model and method of completion for missing data series. It also aims at studying attributes that make a model user friendly and easy to use for the modelling of several countries. A model and a database are developed to answer these questions. A case application is conducted on the specific topic of the phase out of internal combustion engines in the EU to validate model dynamics and practical use. It is found that an energy demand forecasting model is easier and more time efficient to use with an included historical database. The case study shows that multi-country modelling can be relevant for policy assessment. Finally, improvements and future developments are proposed for the present work. Prognoser för energiefterfrågan har blivit allt viktigare under de senaste åren i och med att länder har satt upp mål om att bli klimatneutrala senast 2050. Prognoser för energiefterfrågan gör det möjligt att förstå drivkrafterna bakom energiefterfrågan inom alla ekonomiska sektorer. Det gör det också möjligt att planera omvandlingen av det framtida energisystemet. Denna studie fokuserar på prognoser för energiefterfrågan i Europa med hjälp av en bottom-up-modelleringsmetod för flera länder. I arbetet undersöks olika sätt att samla in stora mängder data för att mata en energimodell och metoder för att komplettera saknade dataserier. Det syftar också till att studera attribut som gör en modell användar vänlig och lätt att använda för modellering av flera länder. En modell och en databas utvecklas för att besvara dessa frågor. För att validera modellens dynamik och praktiska användning genomförs en fallstudie om utfasningen av förbränningsmotorer i EU. Det visar sig att en modell för prognostisering av energiefterfrågan är enklare och mer tidseffektiv att använda med en inkluderad historisk databas. Fallstudien visar att modeller för flera länder kan vara relevanta för policybedömning. Slutligen föreslås förbättringar och framtida utveckling för det aktuella arbetet.

We use a simulation model to explore the theoretical impact of technology, recycling, household propensity for material consumption, and nature conservation policies on economic growth and possible stabilization of the global economy within biophysical boundaries. The model dynamics, which arise from the autocatalytic loop between production and household sectors that deplete finite natural resources, qualitatively reproduce historically observed global GDP growth. The simulation results show that a sustainable but unstable steady-state can be reasonably reached only by the simultaneous application of policies that increase nature conservation and promote environmentally efficient technologies, a circular economy, and less-intensive material lifestyles. These policy measures, if realized, would reflect the anticipatory behavior of the human system to prevent future hazards by taking adequate actions in the present. The unstable steady-state suggests long-term sustainability would depend on continuous behavioral, institutional, and policy adjustments rooted in anticipatory behavior.

В статье рассмотрена возможность управления подключением (отключением) переднего моста в зависимости от дорожных условий, в которых используются полноприводные автомобили, и массовой нагрузкой, приходящейся на ведущие мосты, для чего разработана имитационная модель гидравлического привода, а также предложено запатентованное техническое решение для ее реализации. The article considers the possibility of controlling the connection (disconnection) of the front axle depending on the road conditions in which four-wheel drive cars are used and the mass load on the drive axles, for which a simulation model of a hydraulic drive has been developed, and a patented technical solution for its implementation has been proposed.

У роботі досліджено теоретико-методичні основи моделювання процесу забезпечення населення України банківськими соціальними картками у період воєнного стану Побудовано імітаційну модель процесу забезпечення населення України банківськими соціальними картками у період воєнного стану. Практичні розрахунки засвідчили, що українці, які бажають придбати соціальну картку складають 29,7%, а такі, що не мають наміру володіти даною карткою – 70,3%. Тобто визначено, що 40 проаналізована вибірка соціально вразливого населення не бажає мати картки, а залишається «вірною» традиційним способам отримання допомоги або грошових виплат з каси банку. The theoretical and methodological bases of modeling the process of providing the population of Ukraine with bank social cards during the period of martial law were studied. Practical calculations showed that 29.7% of Ukrainians who want to purchase a social card, and 70.3% of those who do not intend to own this card. That is, it was determined that the analyzed sample of the socially vulnerable population does not want to have cards, but remains "faithful" to the traditional ways of receiving assistance or cash payments from the bank cash register.

The possibility of optimizing production is being considered, as well as solving the tasks of the national productivity improvement program through the introduction of digital twins, which are provided by creating a simulation model with a contact parametric interface with the ability to monitor the process flow in real time and adjust its controlled parameters. Рассматривается возможность оптимизации производства, а также решение задач национальной программы повышения производительности с помощью внедрения цифровых двойников, обеспечение которых происходит за счет создания имитационной модели, имеющей контактный параметрический интерфейс с возможностью мониторинга в режиме реального времени потока процесса и корректировкой его управляемых параметров.

С использованием функциональных схем и имитационных моделей асинхронно-вентильного каскада произведен расчет и анализ действующего значения электромагнитного момента электроприводов на основе асинхронно-вентильного каскада с транзисторным и тиристорным преобразователями в роторной цепи. Using functional diagrams and simulation models of an asynchronous-valve cascade, the calculation and analysis of the effective value of the electromagnetic torque of electric drives based on an asynchronous-valve cascade with transistor and thyristor converters in a rotor was carried out.

В статье рассмотрена проблема совершенствования процессов технической эксплуатации транспортных и технологических машин. Предложено использование технологии цифрового прототипирования в части графической визуализации результатов моделирования. Для развития ранее созданной авторами имитационной модели процесса ТО и Р предложена 3D-модель пункта технического обслуживания. В приведенной модели результаты имитационного моделирования используются для построения и анимации объекта - в данном случае перемещения каждой машины по специализированным постам ТО и Р. Результаты исследовательской работы могут использоваться для проектирования новых и совершенствования существующих ремонтно-обслуживающих баз парка техники. The article deals with the problem of improving the processes of technical operation of transport and technological machines. For this purpose, the paper proposes the use of digital prototyping technology in terms of graphical visualization of modeling results. For the development of the simulation model of the maintenance and P process previously created by the authors, a 3D model of the maintenance point was proposed. In the given model, the results of simulation modeling are used to build and animate the object, in this case, the movement of each machine to specialized maintenance and repair. The results of research work can be used to design new and improve existing repair and maintenance bases of the fleet of equipment.

The article considers the application of the finite element method for the process of local pressing wood in longitudinal direction. A simulation model of a wooden billet has been created for calculations in the CAE system. A layered structure of the model is proposed, which will make it possible to predict the behavior of a wooden blank when pressing rectangular lugs. В статье рассмотрено применение метода конечных элементов для моделирования процесса местного торцового прессования древесины. Для расчетов в CAE-системе создана имитационная модель деревянной заготовки. Предложена слоистая структура модели, которая позволит прогнозировать поведение деревянной заготовки при прессовании прямоугольных проушин.

In this paper, the main objective of using numerical simulation was to highlight and analyse details that are very difficult to highlight through experimental tests. The development of the simulation model was also done for predictive purposes. In other words, after validation of the model, it can be used to estimate the filter load in other conditions than the experimental ones, respectively to evaluate how the particulate filter affects the operation of the internal combustion engine. In order to achieve the desired result, the creation of the model was done in two stages, the first stage was the creation of a model containing all the components of the engine, except the particle filter in order to identify the parameters of the combustion process and pollutant emissions - model validated on the basis of the indicated pressure curves, and the second stage was to complete the initial model with a particle filter and validate it from the point of view of the pressure drop, respectively of the engine performance, the aim was to obtain a trend, respectively values similar to the experimental ones.

O b j e c t i v e s. To develop a control system for the movement of a mobile robot along a color-contrast line, as well as to find the values of the coefficients of a proportional-integral-differentiating (PID) controller that allows the robot to move along the line at a given speed.M e t ho d s. To adjust the values of the coefficients of the PID controller, methods of enumeration, automatic tuning and a genetic algorithm are used.Re s u l t s. A software package for tuning the PID controller of the educational mobile robot RoboCake, designed to move along a closed color-contrast line at a given speed, has been developed. The software package consists of a simulation model of the specified robot in the Simulink environment, several virtual traces-polygons and a specialized solver based on the developed genetic algorithm. With the help of the proposed fitness function, a mobile robot control system that satisfies the stated conditions is implemented. Based on the conducted model experiments, the desired values of the parameters of the PID controller are obtained.Co n c l u s i o n. A comparison of the effectiveness of various methods of tuning the PID controller is carried out. The developed software package is designed to solve the practical problem of moving a mobile robot along a color-contrast line at a speed of 1 m/s. The results obtained can be used to study methods of evolutionary tuning of stabilization systems for transport robots, ensuring their movement without overshoot.

Objectives.Simulation modeling is increasingly being used for the study of complex economic, technical, biological, etc. systems. Such systems are characterized by multifactorial relationships of their functioning, nonlinear dependencies between system elements and stochasticity of their parameters, etc. The purpose of this work is to develop a simulation model based on the C# programming language for the energy-saving CCGT-110 and ABCM system based on the results of manual analysis according to the data of a full-scale experiment.Method.Methods of linear and nonlinear approximation, methods of energy and thermodynamic analysis, as well as methods of mathematical simulation modeling are used to develop the simulation model.Result.The result of this work is the developed software SAESS 3.0, which allows you to analyze the operation of the CCGT-110 and ABCM systems together and separately in a wide range of parameters and in real time. Conclusion.To assess the adequacy of the developed program, a comparative analysis of software and manual calculation was carried out. Deviations do not exceed an average of 3 %, which confirms the reliability of the simulation model.

The main link in the logistics supply chain is the cargo customs complex. It provides customs and logistics services to cargo owners during the export and import of goods, complex services, placement of goods in a customs warehouse and a temporary storage warehouse. To substantiate the choice of the optimal logistics supply chain and optimize the work of the cargo customs complex, it is proposed to use simulation modeling. The model of operation of the logistics chain and the cargo customs complex is presented in a general form. The proposed model is implemented in the GPSS World simulation automation package. Testing the simulation model involved checking its adequacy. Checking the adequacy of the simulation model, which showed the maximum value of the t-statistic of 1.424 with a critical value of 1.85, proved its compliance with the work of a real object. After completing the adequacy check, the simulation error was estimated, which was 3% with an allowable 5%, due to the presence of pseudo-random number generators in the simulation model. Thus, the simulation error is insignificant for this study. For the cargo customs complex, an example of the simulation results is given. Based on the results of simulation modeling, it is possible to determine: the optimal type of the logistics supply chain and the optimal structure of the cargo customs complex. A wide range of tasks that the proposed simulation model can solve is presented. Thus, the developed simulation model will make it possible to analyze and improve the modes of operation of the cargo customs complex. In addition, it will allow to get an informed decision regarding the use of a certain type of logistics supply chain

The pumps in RHPP Bajina Bašta are started via a static frequency converter (SFC). This resulted in increased level of higher harmonics within the RHPP. However, it was not known whether the operation of this SFP could endanger the consumers supplied from the mentioned RHPP via the distribution transformer. For this purpose, it is necessary to check the possibilities of the existence of a parallel resonant circuit, both in the RHPP itself, and in the part of the distribution network that was of interest. Analyzes were performed in the linear simulation model created in the DIgSILENT PowerFactory software package. The simulation model was created so that it corresponds to the state of minimum load of the distribution area supplied by TS Metaljka. Also, several variants were analyzed in TS Đurići (depending on the number of motor engines in operation). The results show the existence of parallel resonant circuit in the vicinity of the 13th harmonic at the level of 10 kV busbars in TS Metaljka, while its existence was not identified at the transmission system busbar, which is in accordance with the measurements

The object of research is preprint processes for the manufacture of audiobooks. The analytical and experimental studies reported here are based on the application of the methodology for devising a simulation model for calculating the complexity of preprint processes in the production of printed books with sound applications. The basic assumption of the study is that the use of simulation will contribute to the improvement of calculations of the complexity of preprint processes for making audiobooks. This cannot be achieved without analyzing the factors influencing the convenience of perception of textual and sound information and establishing the objective function of mutual influence of the text of the publication and audio. A methodology has been proposed for calculating the complexity of the preprint process of making audiobooks based on the developed algorithm of the technological process, mathematical representation of the structural model, as well as its components. It is shown that the process of creating audio accompaniment is affected by the content of printed pages, font design parameters, the selected format of page assembly, and the presence of illustrations. Based on the obtained expert assessments, a hierarchical representation of factors influencing the convenience of information perception is built; the interaction of parameters at different technological stages is described. The dependence of the complexity of the process of making audiobooks on the volume of the book edition in the accounting and publishing sheets, the size and capacity of the font, as well as the speed of sound recording of the printed text, has been established. It is determined that with an increase in font capacity within 200...1000 thousand characters, the calculated labor intensity increases by 5 % to 20 %. The largest limits of changes in the complexity of creating an audio accompaniment are 9 %, at the stage of processing graphic information – 50 %, Об’єктом дослідження є додрукарські процеси виготовлення книг з аудіосупроводом. Проведені аналітичні та експериментальні дослідження ґрунтуються на застосуванні методики розроблення імітаційної моделі розрахунку трудомісткості додрукарських процесів виготовлення друкованих книг зі звуковими додатками. Основне припущення дослідження полягає в тому, що використання імітаційного моделювання сприятиме удосконаленню розрахунків трудомісткості додрукарських процесів виготовлення книг з аудіосупроводом. Цього неможливо досягнути без аналізу факторів впливу на зручність сприйняття текстової й звукової інформації та встановлення цільової функції взаємовпливу тексту видання та аудіосупроводу. Запропоновано методику розрахунку трудомісткості додрукарського процесу виготовлення книг з аудіосупроводом на основі розробленого алгоритму технологічного процесу, математичного представлення структурної моделі та її компонентів. Показано, що на процес створення аудіосупроводу впливає місткість друкованих сторінок, параметри шрифтового оформлення, обраний формат сторінок складання, наявність ілюстрацій. На основі визначених експертних оцінок побудовано ієрархічне представлення факторів впливу на зручність сприйняття інформації, описано взаємодію параметрів на різних технологічних етапах. Встановлено залежності трудомісткості процесу виготовлення книг з аудіосупроводом від обсягу книжкового видання в обліково-видавничих аркушах, кегля та місткості шрифту, швидкості звукозапису друкованого тексту. Визначено, що зі збільшенням місткості шрифту у межах 200…1000 тис. знаків, розрахована трудомісткість зростає від 5% до 20%. Збільшувальні межі змін трудомісткості створення аудіосупроводу складають 9%, етапу обробки графічної інформації 50%

The article is devoted to research aimed at obtaining mathematical dependencies and, on this basis, constructing a simulation model of the formation of a microgeometric pattern on the cylindrical surfaces of antifriction composite parts of printing machines after fine machining with an abrasive grinding tool. To compile mathematical transformations that describe the abrasive grains movement relative to the part’s machined surface, it was consistently presented a mathematical description of the movement of the grinding wheel’s abrasive grain on the plane, transformation the plane of grain movement into a cylinder, and transformation the coordinates in the spatial cylindrical system. The use of the Matplotlib library in the Python programming language allowed obtaining a three-dimensional spatial simulation model in a cylindrical coordinate system, which made it possible to emphasize the spatial picture of the surface microrelief’s formation features, taking into account the mode factors of precision abrasive grinding, namely, longitudinal and transverse feeds (Vn and Vs). The results of the study demonstrated modifications in the trajectory of both a single abrasive grain and an ensemble of grains relative to the processed part’s surface and visualized the possible nature of the formation process of a complex surface microtopography. It was shown that a possible microgeometric surface pattern can be represented as a result of superposition of the movement trajectories of the abrasive grains ensemble in the forward and reverse directions during fine grinding process. Changes in the cutting direction during fine grinding can be caused by both a change in the direction of the cylindrical part rotation and irregular orientation of the abrasive grains’ cutting edges relative to the machining surface, which is associated with the features of grinding wheels production when the grains are arranged randomly and are disoriented in the wheel bond. This leads to the formation of a crossed microgeometric pattern on the machined part’s surface. The simulation model construction of the formation of the antifriction composite parts’ surface microrelief during fine grinding with abrasive wheels makes it possible not only to visualize the phenomena of surface relief geometric transformations, but also to preliminarily assess the effectiveness of fine grinding process, which directly influences on the surface roughness parameters, and, as a result, the high functional properties of antifriction parts for printing machines., Стаття присвячена дослідженням математичних залежностей і побудові імітаційної моделі утворення мікрогеометричного рисунку на циліндричних поверхнях антифрикційних композитних деталей друкарських машин після тонкої механічної обробки абразивним шліфувальним інструментом. Для складання математичних перетворень, що описують рух абразивних зерен відносно оброблюваної поверхні деталі, спочатку розроблено послідовний математичний опис руху абразивного зерна шліфувального кругу на площині, далі виконано трансформацію площини руху зерна в циліндр та перетворення координат у просторовій циліндричній системі. Використання бібліотеки Matplotlib мовою програмування Python дозволило одержати тривимірну просторову імітаційну модель у циліндричній системі координат, що надало можливість увиразнити просторову картину особливостей формування мікрорельєфу поверхні з урахуванням режимних чинників прецизійної абразивної обробки шліфуванням, а саме — поздовжньої та поперечної подач (Vn та Vs). Результати досліджень продемонстрували видозміни траєкторії руху як одиничного абразивного зерна, так і ансамблю зерен відносно оброблюваної поверхні деталі, та візуалізовано можливий характер процесу утворення складної мікротопографії поверхні. Показано, що можливий мікрогеометричний рисунок поверхні може бути представлено як результат накладання траєкторій руху ансамблю абразивних зерен у прямому та зворотному напрямах у процесі тонкого шліфування. Зміна напряму різання при тонкій обробці може бути викликана як зміною напряму обертання циліндричної деталі, так і нерегулярною орієнтацією ріжучих кромок абразивних зерен відносно поверхні оброблення, що пов’язано з особливостями виготовлення шліфувальних кругів, коли зерна розташовані довільно і розорієнтовані у зв’язці кругу. Це призводить до утворення схрещеного мікрогеометричного рисунку на поверхні обробленої деталі. Побудова імітаційної моделі формування мікрорельєфу поверхні композитних деталей при тонкому шліфуванні абразивними кругами дає можливість не тільки візуалізувати явища геометричних перетворень поверхневого рельєфу, а й попередньо оцінювати ефективність тонкої обробки шліфуванням, що безпосередньо впливає на параметри шорсткості поверхонь, і, як наслідок, на високі функціональні властивості антифрикційних деталей друкарських машин.

Risks are involved in every aspect of earthwork projects. This paper specifically discusses the cost risk associated with the volume calculation of such projects. In the design phase, it is not possible to accurately predict the quantity per soil type underground of the site. As a result, there are uncertainties in the excavation cost that may cause cost overrun. There is a need for an innovative method to forecast, control, monitor, and manage excavation cost from design phase to completion. There is, however, an innovative method for calculating volume accurately using a digital surface model method. The digital surface model can be acquired using GPS and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). This paper proposes a simulation model which is able to analyze, control, and monitor the cost based on excavation volume so stakeholders are able to gain the actual volume quickly and accurately. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to the excavation volume per soil type, resulting in a range of possible outcomes for excavation cost. The developed model was verified by applying it to an actual case project. Throughout the project, the cost was successfully monitored and maintained below the maximum expected cost. However, the final actual cost in the last simulation almost reached the maximum expected cost, indicating the need for cost monitoring. By periodically comparing the simulation result to the actual excavated volume obtained from the UAV, the proposed model can assist stakeholders in controlling the cost overrun risk and developing strategies during the earthwork life cycle.

The objectives of this study are the development and verification of a simulation model of the partial PST (power-shift transmission) tractor based on actual field operations. The PST simulation model was verified for the asphalt driving condition, and performance was evaluated for asphalt driving, plow, and rotary tillage. In this study, the traditional, APS (Auto Power Shift) ECO, and APS power engine modes were used to analyze fuel consumption. The statistical analysis proved that the experimental and simulation results were in a linear relationship, with an accuracy of over 98%. Finally, the results suggested that users could utilize the 95-kW partial PST tractor in the APS ECO engine mode with higher fuel economy compared to the traditional and APS power modes.

The method of simulation modeling is currently one of the most powerful and effective methods of researching processes and production systems. The simulation model should reflect a large number of parameters, logic and patterns of behavior of the simulated object. Simulation modeling allows you to reproduce the process of functioning of the system in time while preserving elementary phenomena, their logical structure and sequence of flow in time. This makes it possible to obtain information about the state of the process in the future at certain points in time based on the source data. The distribution of dump truck operating time and speed of movement with and without cargo, idle time for technical reasons and waiting time in the queue were obtained based on a formal analysis of experimental data. These dependencies obey the exponential law. The simulation model for managing the maintenance of technological routes has been improved, which, unlike the existing ones, takes into account the parameters of the transport service cycles (the intensity of the filling of bunkers, the average time of loading cars, the intensity of the occurrence of abnormal time, the coefficient of downtime and repair), which made it possible to minimize the time of the transport service cycles, and to reduce idle time in the queue by 27% for an average value of 23.4 min. for this parameter. With the help of the proposed simulation model, it is possible not only to evaluate options for countering deviations and failures that occurred during production by redistributing resources, changing the order of starting and releasing work items, but also to predict tense and emergency situations., На сьогоднішній день саме метод імітаційного моделювання є одним із найпотужніших та найефективніших методів дослідження процесів та виробничих систем. Імітаційна модель повинна відображати велику кількість параметрів, логіку та закономірності поведінки об'єкта, що моделюється. Імітаційне моделювання дозволяє відтворювати процес функціонування системи у часі із збереженням елементарних явищ, їхньої логічної структури та послідовності протікання у часі. Це дозволяє за вихідними даними отримати інформацію про станах процесу у майбутньому у певні моменти часу. В даний час імітаційний метод є найбільш ефективним, а найчастіше, і єдиним методом дослідження складних систем на етапі їх проектування. Імітаційна модель є динамічною моделлю, в якій всі процеси розглядаються в незменшному масштабі часу. При аналізі події в імітаційній моделі здійснюється прогнозування часу настання події, що ініціюється даними отриманими у програмі Tecnomatix Plant Simulation. Tecnomatix Plant Simulation — це комплексний пакет рішень для цифрового виробництва, що поєднує всі галузі виробництва та розробки виробу, від схеми виробничого процесу та проектування, моделювання та перевірки процесів до виробництва, що базується на принципах управління життєвим циклом виробу (PLM) виробничої платформи. Визначено взаємозв'язок між параметрами циклу транспортного обслуговування, що дозволяє змоделювати ситуації, що виникають у процесі руху вантажних автомобілів на гірничодобувних підприємствах. Складність і різноманіття процесів функціонування проектованих систем не завжди дозволяють одержати для них окремі математичні моделі традиційного вигляду, тому у роботи було використанні методики імітаційного моделювання. Отримано розподіл часу роботи самоскида та швидкість руху з вантажем та без вантажу, простою з технічних причин і часу очікування в черзі на основі формального аналізу експериментальних даних. Ці залежності підпорядковуються експоненційному закону. Удосконалено імітаційну модель управління обслуговуванням технологічних маршрутів, яка на відміну від існуючих, враховує параметри циклів транспортного обслуговування (інтенсивність заповнення бункерів, середній час навантаження автомобілів, інтенсивність виникнення ненормованого часу, коефіцієнт простою та ремонту), що дало можливість мінімізувати час циклів транспортного обслуговування, а саме скоротити час простою в черзі на 27% за середнього значення 23,4 хв. для цього параметра. За допомогою запропонованої імітаційної моделі можна не тільки оцінювати варіанти парирування відхилень і збоїв, що виникли в ході виробництва шляхом перерозподілу ресурсів, зміни порядку запуску-випуску предметів праці, а й прогнозувати напружені та аварійні ситуації.