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Additional file 1: Circulating inflammatory biomarkers and breast cancer risk in the EPIC prospective study: Supplementary Tables S1- S7 and Figures S1-S3. Table S1. Geometric mean values for inflammatory biomarkers in breast cancer cases and matched controls. Table S2. Associations between inflammatory biomarkers and breast cancer risk by age at diagnosis. Table S3. Associations between inflammatory biomarkers and breast cancer risk by breast cancer molecular subtypes. Table S4. Associations between inflammatory biomarkers and breast cancer risk by time between blood collection and diagnosis. Table S5. Associations between inflammatory biomarkers and breast cancer risk by body mass index. Table S6. Associations between inflammatory biomarkers and breast cancer risk by waist circumference. Table S7. Associations between inflammatory biomarkers and breast cancer risk among non-hormone users at blood collection. Table S8. Associations between IL-10 and breast cancer risk overall and according to menopausal status at blood collection, after excluding women with values of IL-10 below the LOQ. Table S9. Associations between TNF-α and breast cancer risk overall and according to menopausal status at blood collection, after excluding women with values of TNF-α below the LOQ. Figure S1. Flow chart of the study population. Figure S2. Association between leptin and breast cancer risk, overall and by menopausal status, allowing for nonlinear effects (restricted cubic spline). Figure S3. Association between leptin-to-adiponectin ratio and breast cancer risk, overall and by menopausal status, allowing for nonlinear effects (restricted cubic spline). Figure S4. Association between CRP with breast cancer risk, overall and by menopausal status, allowing for nonlinear effects (restricted cubic spline).

The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by the European Commission (DG-SANCO) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The national cohorts are supported by the Danish Cancer Society (Kræftens Bekæmpelse) (Denmark), German Cancer Aid (Deutsche Krebshilfe), German Cancer Research Center (Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum, DKFZ), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Bundesministerium fu¨ r Bildung und Forschung, BMBF) (Germany), Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy and National Research Council (Italy), Swedish Cancer Society (Cancerfonden), Swedish Research Council (Vetenskapsra° det), County Councils of Ska°ne and Va¨sterbotten (Sweden), Cancer Research UK (14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C570/ A16491 and C8221/A19170 to EPIC-Oxford), Medical Research Council (1000143 to EPIC-Norfolk; MR/M012190/1 to EPICOxford) (UK). Infrastructure support for the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at Imperial College London (UK) was provided by the NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). The funders had no role in the design and conduct of the study; the collection, analysis and interpretation of the data; or the preparation, review and approval of the manuscript; or in the decision to submit the manuscript for publication., Background: The role of obesity and weight change in breast-cancer development is complex and incompletely understood. We investigated long-term weight change and breast-cancer risk by body mass index (BMI) at age 20 years, menopausal status, hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and hormone-receptor status. Methods: Using data on weight collected at three different time points from women who participated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, we investigated the association between weight change from age 20 years until middle adulthood and risk of breast cancer. Results: In total, 150 257 women with a median age of 51 years at cohort entry were followed for an average of 14 years (standard deviation¼3.9) during which 6532 breast-cancer cases occurred. Compared with women with stable weight (62.5 kg), long-term weight gain >10 kg was positively associated with postmenopausal breast-cancer risk in women who were lean at age 20 [hazard ratio (HR)¼1.42; 95% confidence interval 1.22–1.65] in ever HRT users (HR¼1.23; 1.04–1.44), in never HRT users (HR¼1.40; 1.16–1.68) and in oestrogen-and-progesterone-receptor-positive (ERþPRþ) breast cancer (HR¼1.46; 1.15–1.85). Conclusion: Long-term weight gain was positively associated with postmenopausal breast cancer in women who were lean at age 20, both in HRT ever users and non-users, and hormone-receptor-positive breast cancer., European Commission (DG-SANCO), International Agency for Research on Cancer, Danish Cancer Society (Kraftens Bekampelse), German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center, Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy and National Research Council, Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Research Council, County Councils of Skane and Vasterbotten, 14136 Cancer Research UK, C570/A16491 EPIC-Norfolk, 1000143 Medical Research Council, Infrastructure support for the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at Imperial College London (UK) was provided by the NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre (BRC)

Ovarian cancer risk factors differ by histotype; however, within subtype, there is substantial variability in outcomes. We hypothesized that risk factor profiles may influence tumor aggressiveness, defined by time between diagnosis and death, independent of histology. Among 1.3 million women from 21 prospective cohorts, 4,584 invasive epithelial ovarian cancers were identified and classified as highly aggressive (death in = 35 vs. 20 to < 25 kg/m(2), 1.93 [1.46-2.56] and current smoking (vs. never, 1.30 [1.07-1.57]) were associated with increased risk of highly aggressive disease. Results were similar within histotypes. Ovarian cancer risk factors may be directly associated with subtypes defined by tumor aggressiveness, rather than through differential effects on histology. Studies to assess biological pathways are warranted.

Endometrial cancer risk prediction models including lifestyle, anthropometric and reproductive factors have limited discrimination. Adding biomarker data to these models may improve predictive capacity; to our knowledge, this has not been investigated for endometrial cancer. Using a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, we investigated the improvement in discrimination gained by adding serum biomarker concentrations to risk estimates derived from an existing risk prediction model based on epidemiologic factors. Serum concentrations of sex steroid hormones, metabolic markers, growth factors, adipokines and cytokines were evaluated in a step-wise backward selection process; biomarkers were retained at p < 0.157 indicating improvement in the Akaike information criterion (AIC). Improvement in discrimination was assessed using the C-statistic for all biomarkers alone, and change in C-statistic from addition of biomarkers to preexisting absolute risk estimates. We used internal validation with bootstrapping (1000-fold) to adjust for over-fitting. Adiponectin, estrone, interleukin-1 receptor antagonist, tumor necrosis factor-alpha and triglycerides were select-ed into the model. After accounting for over-fitting, discrimination was improved by 2.0 percentage points when all evaluated biomarkers were included and 1.7 percentage points in the model including the selected biomarkers. Models including etiologic markers on independent pathways and genetic markers may further improve discrimination.

Endometrial cancer risk prediction models including lifestyle, anthropometric and reproductive factors have limited discrimina-tion. Adding biomarker data to these models may improve predictive capacity; to our knowledge, this has not been investigat-ed for endometrial cancer. Using a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, we investigated the improvement in discrimination gained by adding serum biomarker concentrations to risk estimates derived from an existing risk prediction model based on epidemiologic factors. Serum concentrations of sex steroid hormones, metabolic markers, growth factors, adipokines and cytokines were evaluated in a step-wise backward selec-tion process; biomarkers were retained at p < 0.157 indicating improvement in the Akaike information criterion (AIC). Improvement in discrimination was assessed using the C-statistic for all biomarkers alone, and change in C-statistic from addition of biomarkers to preexisting absolute risk estimates. We used internal validation with bootstrapping (1000-fold) to adjust for over-fitting. Adiponectin, estrone, interleukin-1 receptor antagonist, tumor necrosis factor-alpha and triglycerides were select-ed into the model. After accounting for over-fitting, discrimination was improved by 2.0 percentage points when all evaluated biomarkers were included and 1.7 percentage points in the model including the selected biomarkers. Models including eti-ologic markers on independent pathways and genetic markers may further improve discrimination.

Endometrial cancer (EC) is the fourth most frequent cancer in women in Europe, and as its incidence is increasing, prevention strategies gain further pertinence. Risk prediction models can be a useful tool for identifying women likely to benefit from targeted prevention measures. On the basis of data from 201,811 women (mostly aged 30-65 years) including 855 incident EC cases from eight countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, a model to predict EC was developed. A step-wise model selection process was used to select confirmed predictive epidemiologic risk factors. Piece-wise constant hazard rates in 5-year age-intervals were estimated in a cause-specific competing risks model, five-fold-cross-validation was applied for internal validation. Risk factors included in the risk prediction model were body-mass index (BMI), menopausal status, age at menarche and at menopause, oral contraceptive use, overall and by different BMI categories and overall duration of use, parity, age at first full-term pregnancy, duration of menopausal hormone therapy and smoking status (specific for pre, peri- and post-menopausal women). These variables improved the discriminating capacity to predict risk over 5 years from 71 % for a model based on age alone to 77 % (overall C statistic), and the model was well-calibrated (ratio of expected to observed cases = 0.99). Our model could be used for the identification of women at increased risk of EC in Western Europe. To achieve an EC-risk model with general validity, a large-scale cohort-consortium approach would be needed to assess and adjust for population variation.

Background In addition to HPV, high parity and hormonal contraceptives have been associated with cervical cancer (CC). However, most of the evidence comes from retrospective case-control studies. The aim of this study is to prospectively evaluate associations between hormonal factors and risk of developing cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3)/carcinoma in situ (CIS) and invasive cervical cancer (ICC). Methods and Findings We followed a cohort of 308,036 women recruited in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Study. At enrollment, participants completed a questionnaire and provided serum. After a 9-year median follow-up, 261 ICC and 804 CIN3/CIS cases were reported. In a nested case-control study, the sera from 609 cases and 1,218 matched controls were tested for L1 antibodies against HPV types 11,16,18,31,33,35,45, 52,58, and antibodies against Chlamydia trachomatis and Human herpesvirus 2. Multivariate analyses were performed to estimate hazard ratios (HR), odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). The cohort analysis showed that number of fullterm pregnancies was positively associated with CIN3/CIS risk (p-trend = 0.03). Duration of oral contraceptives use was associated with a significantly increased risk of both CIN3/CIS and ICC (HR = 1.6 and HR = 1.8 respectively for >= 15 years versus never use). Ever use of menopausal hormone therapy was associated with a reduced risk of ICC (HR = 0.5, 95% CI: 0.4-0.8). A non-significant reduced risk of ICC with ever use of intrauterine devices (IUD) was found in the nested case-control analysis (OR = 0.6). Analyses restricted to all cases and HPV seropositive controls yielded similar results, revealing a significant inverse association with IUD for combined CIN3/CIS and ICC (OR = 0.7). Conclusions Even though HPV is the necessary cause of CC, our results suggest that several hormonal factors are risk factors for cervical carcinogenesis. Adherence to current cervical cancer screening guidelines should minimize the increased risk of CC associated with these hormonal risk factors.

Background: Although smoking and HPV infection are recognized as important risk factors for oropharyngeal cancer, how their joint exposure impacts on oropharyngeal cancer risk is unclear. Specifically, whether smoking confers any additional risk to HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer is not understood. Methods: Using HPV serology as a marker of HPV-related cancer, we examined the interaction between smoking and HPV16 in 459 oropharyngeal (and 1445 oral cavity and laryngeal) cancer patients and 3024 control participants from two large European multicentre studies. Odds ratios and credible intervals [CrI], adjusted for potential confounders, were estimated using Bayesian logistic regression. Results: Both smoking [odds ratio (OR [CrI]: 6.82 [4.52, 10.29]) and HPV seropositivity (OR [CrI]: 235.69 [99.95, 555.74]) were independently associated with oropharyngeal cancer. The joint association of smoking and HPV seropositivity was consistent with that expected on the additive scale (synergy index [CrI]: 1.32 [0.51, 3.45]), suggesting they act as independent risk factors for oropharyngeal cancer. Conclusions: Smoking was consistently associated with increase in oropharyngeal cancer risk in models stratified by HPV16 seropositivity. In addition, we report that the prevalence of oropharyngeal cancer increases with smoking for both HPV16-positive and HPV16-negative persons. The impact of smoking on HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancer highlights the continued need for smoking cessation programmes for primary prevention of head and neck cancer.

The role of endogenous androgens and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) in ovarian carcinogenesis is poorly understood. Epithelial invasive ovarian cancer (EOC) is a heterogeneous disease and there are no prospective data on endogenous androgens and EOC risk by tumor characteristics (histology, grade, stage) or the dualistic model of ovarian carcinogenesis (i.e. type I vs. type II, leading to less or more aggressive tumors). We conducted a nested case-control study in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort evaluating androgens and SHBG and invasive EOC risk by tumor characteristics. Female participants who provided a blood sample and were not using exogenous hormones at blood donation were eligible (n = 183,257). A total of 565 eligible women developed EOC; two controls (n = 1,097) were matched per case. We used multivariable conditional logistic regression models. We observed no association between androgens, SHBG and EOC overall. A doubling of androstenedione reduced risk of serous carcinomas by 21% (odds ratio (OR)log2 = 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] = [0.64-0.97]). Moreover, associations differed for low-grade and high-grade carcinomas, with positive associations for low-grade and inverse associations for high-grade carcinomas (e.g. androstenedione: low grade: ORlog2 = 1.99 [0.98-4.06]; high grade: ORlog2 = 0.75 [0.61-0.93], phet ≤ 0.01), similar associations were observed for type I/II tumors. This is the first prospective study to evaluate androgens, SHBG and EOC risk by tumor characteristics and type I/II status. Our findings support a possible role of androgens in ovarian carcinogenesis. Additional studies exploring this association are needed. What's new? There appear to be several types of epithelial invasive ovarian cancer (EOC), and hormone-related risk factors are poorly understood. In this study, the authors found that the impact of endogenous androgens on the risk of developing EOC differed depending upon tumor characteristics. Androgen concentrations were positively associated with the risk of low-grade and type-I carcinomas, but the study found an inverse association for high-grade tumors. These findings support a possible role for androgens in ovarian carcinogenesis, and emphasize the need for additional research.

Data on the role of dietary factors in endometrial cancer development are limited and inconsistent. We applied a “nutrient-wide association study” approach to systematically evaluate dietary risk associations for endometrial cancer while controlling for multiple hypothesis tests using the false discovery rate (FDR) and validating the results in an independent cohort. We evaluated endometrial cancer risk associations for dietary intake of 84 foods and nutrients based on dietary questionnaires in three prospective studies, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC; N = 1,303 cases) followed by validation of nine foods/nutrients (FDR

The role of endogenous androgens and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) in ovarian carcinogenesis is poorly understood. Epithelial invasive ovarian cancer (EOC) is a heterogeneous disease and there are no prospective data on endogenous androgens and EOC risk by tumor characteristics (histology, grade, stage) or the dualistic model of ovarian carcinogenesis (i.e. type I vs. type II, leading to less or more aggressive tumors). We conducted a nested case-control study in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort evaluating androgens and SHBG and invasive EOC risk by tumor characteristics. Female participants who provided a blood sample and were not using exogenous hormones at blood donation were eligible (n = 183,257). A total of 565 eligible women developed EOC; two controls (n = 1,097) were matched per case. We used multivariable conditional logistic regression models. We observed no association between androgens, SHBG and EOC overall. A doubling of androstenedione reduced risk of serous carcinomas by 21% (odds ratio (OR)log2=0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI]=[0.64-0.97]). Moreover, associations differed for low-grade and high-grade carcinomas, with positive associations for low-grade and inverse associations for high-grade carcinomas (e.g. androstenedione: low grade: ORlog2=1.99 [0.98-4.06]; high grade: ORlog2=0.75 [0.61-0.93], p(het)0.01), similar associations were observed for type I/II tumors. This is the first prospective study to evaluate androgens, SHBG and EOC risk by tumor characteristics and type I/II status. Our findings support a possible role of androgens in ovarian carcinogenesis. Additional studies exploring this association are needed. What’s new? There appear to be several types of epithelial invasive ovarian cancer (EOC), and hormone-related risk factors are poorly understood. In this study, the authors found that the impact of endogenous androgens on the risk of developing EOC differed depending upon tumor characteristics. Androgen concentrations were positively associated with the risk of low-grade and type-I carcinomas, but the study found an inverse association for high-grade tumors. These findings support a possible role for androgens in ovarian carcinogenesis, and emphasize the need for additional research.

Background: Evidence suggests an etiologic role for inflammation in ovarian carcinogenesis and heterogeneity between tumor subtypes and anthropometric indices. Prospective studies on circulating inflammatory markers and epithelial invasive ovarian cancer (EOC) have predominantly investigated overall risk; data characterizing risk by tumor characteristics (histology, grade, stage, dualistic model of ovarian carcinogenesis) and anthropometric indices are sparse. Methods: We conducted a nested case-control study in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort to evaluate C-reactive protein (CRP), IL6, and EOC risk by tumor characteristics. A total of 754 eligible EOC cases were identified; two controls (n = 1,497) were matched per case. We used multivariable conditional logistic regression to assess associations. Results: CRP and IL6 were not associated with overall EOC risk. However, consistent with prior research, CRP >10 versus CRP 88: ORlog2, 1.78 (1.28-2.48), P-heterogeneity

To evaluate prospectively the association between serological markers of selected infections, including HPV, and risk of developing cervical cancer (CC) and precancer, we performed a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study that included 184 cases of invasive CC (ICC), 425 cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 or carcinoma in situ (CIS), and 1,218 matched control women. At enrollment participants completed lifestyle questionnaires and provided sera. Subjects were followed-up for a median of 9 years. Immunoassays were used to detect serum antibodies to Human Herpes Virus 2 (HHV-2), Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Chlamydia pneumoniae, L1 proteins of mucosal and cutaneous HPV types, E6/E7 proteins of HPV16/18, as well as to four polyomaviruses. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) [and 95% confidence intervals (CI)] for CIN3/CIS and ICC risk were respectively: 1.6 (1.2-2.0) and 1.8 (1.1-2.7) for L1 seropositivity to any mucosal HPV type, 1.0 (0.4-2.4) and 7.4 (2.8-19.7) for E6 seropositivity to HPV16/18, 1.3 (0.9-1.9) and 2.3 (1.3-4.1) for CT seropositivity, and 1.4 (1.0-2.0) and 1.5 (0.9-2.6) for HHV-2 seropositivity. The highest OR for ICC was observed for HPV16 E6 seropositivity [OR=10.2 (3.3-31.1)]. Increasing number of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) was associated with increasing risk. Non-STIs were not associated with CC risk. In conclusion, this large prospective study confirms the important role of HPV and a possible contribution of CT and HHV-2 in cervical carcinogenesis. It further identifies HPV16 E6 seropositivity as the strongest marker to predict ICC well before disease development. What’s New? Limited data are available from prospective studies concerning the role of past exposure to human papillomavirus (HPV) and other infections in cervical carcinogenesis. This study assessed associations between cervical cancer and pre-cancer and serological markers of exposure to mucosal and cutaneous HPVs, Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Chlamydia pneumonia, human herpes virus-2 (HHV-2), and polyomaviruses using a nested case-control design within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Associations were found for mucosal HPVs, CT, and HHV-2. A greater number of sexually transmitted diseases further raised the risk of cervical cancer.

A total of 308,036 women were selected from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study to evaluate the association between tobacco smoking and the risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 3 (CIN3)/carcinoma in situ (CIS) and invasive cervical cancer (ICC). At baseline, participants completed a questionnaire and provided blood samples. During a mean follow-up time of 9 years, 261 ICC cases and 804 CIN3/CIS cases were reported. In a nested case-control study, the baseline sera from 609 cases and 1,218 matched controls were tested for L1 antibodies against HPV types 11, 16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 45, 52, 58, and antibodies against Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), and Human Herpes Virus 2 (HHV-2). Cervical samples were not available for HPV-DNA analysis in this study. Multivariate analyses were used to estimate associations between smoking and risk of CIN3/CIS and ICC in the cohort and the case-control studies. In the cohort analyses smoking status, duration and intensity showed a two-fold increased risk of CIN3/CIS and ICC, while time since quitting was associated with a two-fold reduced risk. In the nested case-control study, consistent associations were observed after adjustment for HPV, CT and HHV-2 serostatus, in both HPV seronegative and seropositive women. Results from this large prospective study confirm the role of tobacco smoking as an important risk factor for both CIN3/CIS and ICC, even after taking into account HPV exposure as determined by HPV serology. The strong beneficial effect of quitting smoking is an important finding that will further support public health policies for smoking cessation. What’s new? Tobacco smoking is a cited cause of cervical cancer, but whether it causes cervical malignancy independent of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is unclear. Here, strong associations were found between most measures of tobacco smoking and the risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 3/carcinoma in situ and invasive cervical cancer, after taking into account past exposure to HPV infection. Quitting smoking was associated with a 2-fold risk reduction. The findings confirm the role of tobacco smoking in cervical carcinogenesis and show that quitting the habit has important benefits for cancer protection.

Recent cohort studies suggest that increased breast cancer risks were associated with longer smoking duration, higher pack-years and a dose-response relationship with increasing pack-years of smoking between menarche and first full-term pregnancy (FFTP). Studies with comprehensive quantitative life-time measures of passive smoking suggest an association between passive smoking dose and breast cancer risk. We conducted a study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition to examine the association between passive and active smoking and risk of invasive breast cancer and possible effect modification by known breast cancer risk factors. Among the 322,988 women eligible for the study, 9,822 developed breast cancer (183,608 women with passive smoking information including 6,264 cases). When compared to women who never smoked and were not being exposed to passive smoking at home or work at the time of study registration, current, former and currently exposed passive smokers were at increased risk of breast cancer (hazard ratios (HR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] 1.16 [1.05-1.28], 1.14 [1.04-1.25] and 1.10 [1.01-1.20], respectively). Analyses exploring associations in different periods of life showed the most important increase in risk with pack-years from menarche to FFTP (1.73 [1.29-2.32] for every increase of 20 pack-years) while pack-years smoked after menopause were associated with a significant decrease in breast cancer risk (HR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.34-0.82 for every increase of 20 pack-years). Our results provide an important replication, in the largest cohort to date, that smoking (passively or actively) increases breast cancer risk and that smoking between menarche and FFTP is particularly deleterious.

Recent cohort studies suggest that increased breast cancer risks were associated with longer smoking duration, higher pack-years and a dose-response relationship with increasing pack-years of smoking between menarche and first full-term pregnancy (FFTP). Studies with comprehensive quantitative life-time measures of passive smoking suggest an association between passive smoking dose and breast cancer risk. We conducted a study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition to examine the association between passive and active smoking and risk of invasive breast cancer and possible effect modification by known breast cancer risk factors. Among the 322,988 women eligible for the study, 9,822 developed breast cancer (183,608 women with passive smoking information including 6,264 cases). When compared to women who never smoked and were not being exposed to passive smoking at home or work at the time of study registration, current, former and currently exposed passive smokers were at increased risk of breast cancer (hazard ratios (HR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] 1.16 [1.05-1.28], 1.14 [1.04-1.25] and 1.10 [1.01-1.20], respectively). Analyses exploring associations in different periods of life showed the most important increase in risk with pack-years from menarche to FFTP (1.73 [1.29-2.32] for every increase of 20 pack-years) while pack-years smoked after menopause were associated with a significant decrease in breast cancer risk (HR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.34-0.82 for every increase of 20 pack-years). Our results provide an important replication, in the largest cohort to date, that smoking (passively or actively) increases breast cancer risk and that smoking between menarche and FFTP is particularly deleterious.

Background: In 2007 the World Cancer Research Fund Report concluded that there was limited and inconsistent evidence for an effect of coffee and tea consumption on the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). Objective: In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), we aimed to investigate whether coffee intakes, tea intakes, or both are associated with the risk of EOC. Design: All women participating in the EPIC (n = 330,849) were included in this study. Data on coffee and tea consumption were collected through validated food-frequency questionnaires at baseline. HRs and 95% CIs were estimated by using Cox proportional hazards models. Furthermore, we performed an updated meta-analysis of all previous prospective studies until April 2011 by comparing the highest and lowest coffee- and tea-consumption categories as well as by using dose-response random-effects meta-regression analyses. Results: During a median follow-up of 11.7 y, 1244 women developed EOC. No association was observed between the risk of EOC and coffee consumption [HR: 1.05 (95% CI: 0.75, 1.46) for the top quintile compared with no intake] or tea consumption [HR: 1.07 (95% Cl: 0.78, 1.45) for the top quintile compared with no intake]. This lack of association between coffee and tea intake and EOC risk was confirmed by the results of our meta-analysis. Conclusion: Epidemiologic studies do not provide sufficient evidence to support an association between coffee and tea consumption and risk of ovarian cancer. Am J Clin Nutr 2012;95:1172-81.

New data regarding a positive association between smoking and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC), especially the mucinous tumor type, has started to emerge. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between different measures of smoking exposures and subtypes of EOC in a large cohort of women from 10 European countries. The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort is a multicenter prospective study initiated in 1992. The questionnaires included data about dietary, lifestyle, and health factors. Information about cigarette smoking was collected from individuals in all participating countries. We used Cox proportional hazard regression models to estimate hazard ratio (HR) of EOC overall and serous, mucinous, and endometroid histological subtypes, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with different measures of smoking exposures adjusting for confounding variables. Altogether 836 incident EOC cases were identified among 326,831 women. The tumors were classified as 400 serous, 83 mucinous, 80 endometroid, 35 clear cell, and 238 unspecified. Compared with never smokers, current smokers had a significantly increased risk for mucinous tumors [HR = 1.85 (95% CI 1.083.16)] and those smoking more than 10 cigarettes per day had a doubling in risk [HR = 2.25(95% CI 1.264.03)] as did those who had smoked less than 15 pack-years of cigarettes [HR = 2.18 (95% CI 1.074.43)]. The results from the EPIC study add further evidence that smoking increases risk of mucinous ovarian cancer and support the notion that the effect of smoking varies according to histological subtype.

Background: Many epidemiological studies have examined fruit and vegetable consumption in relation to the risk of urothelial cell carcinoma (UCC) of the bladder, but results are inconsistent. The association between fruit and vegetable consumption and UCC risk may vary by bladder tumour aggressiveness. Therefore, we examined the relation between fruit and vegetable consumption and the risk of aggressive and non-aggressive UCC in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Methods: After 8.9 years of follow-up, 947 UCC were diagnosed among 468,656 EPIC participants. Of these, 421 could be classified as aggressive UCC and 433 as non-aggressive UCC cases. At recruitment, fruit and vegetable consumption was assessed by validated dietary questionnaires. Multivariable hazard ratios were estimated using Cox regression stratified by age, sex and center and adjusted for smoking status, duration and intensity of smoking, and energy intake. Results: Total consumption of fruits and vegetables was not associated with aggressive UCC nor with non-aggressive UCC. A 25 g/day increase in leafy vegetables and grapes consumption was associated with a reduced risk of non-aggressive UCC (hazard ratio (HR) 0.88; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78-1.00 and HR 0.87; 95% CI 0.77-0.98, respectively), while the intake of root vegetables was inversely associated with risk of aggressive UCC (HR 0.87; 95% CI 0.77-0.98). Conclusion: Our study did not confirm a protective effect of total fruit and/or vegetable consumption on aggressive or non-aggressive UCC. High consumption of certain types of vegetables and of fruits may reduce the risk of aggressive or non-aggressive UCC; however chance findings cannot be excluded. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Purpose Our aim was to assess the impact of cigarette smoking on the risk of the tumors classified by the International Agency for Research on Cancer as causally associated with smoking, referred to as tobacco-related cancers (TRC). Methods The study population included 441,211 participants (133,018 men and 308,193 women) from the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition. We investigated 14,563 participants who developed a TRC during an average follow-up of 11 years. The impact of smoking cigarettes on cancer risk was assessed by the population attributable fraction (AF(p)), calculated using the adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CI for current and former smokers, plus either the prevalence of smoking among cancer cases or estimates from surveys in representative samples of the population in each country. Results The proportion of all TRC attributable to cigarette smoking was 34.9% (95% CI, 32.5 to 37.4) using the smoking prevalence among cases and 36.2% (95% CI, 33.7 to 38.6) using the smoking prevalence from the population. The AF(p) were above 80% for cancers of the lung and larynx, between 20% and 50% for most respiratory and digestive cancers and tumors from the lower urinary tract, and below 20% for the remaining TRC. Conclusion Using data on cancer incidence for 2008 and our AF(p) estimates, about 270,000 new cancer diagnoses per year can be considered attributable to cigarette smoking in the eight European countries with available data for both men and women (Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Greece, Germany, Sweden, Denmark). J Clin Oncol 30:4550-4557. (C) 2012 by American Society of Clinical Oncology

Background: Published associations between dietary carotenoids and vitamin C and bladder cancer risk are inconsistent. Biomarkers may provide more accurate measures of nutrient status. Objective: We investigated the association between plasma carotenoids and vitamin C and risk of urothelial cell carcinoma (UCC) in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Design: A total of 856 patients with newly diagnosed UCC were matched with 856 cohort members by sex, age at baseline, study center, date and time of blood collection, and fasting status. Plasma carotenoids (alpha- and beta-carotene, beta-cryptoxanthin, lycopene, lutein, and zeaxanthin) were measured by using reverse-phase HPLC, and plasma vitamin C was measured by using a colorimetric assay. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated by using conditional logistic regression with adjustment for smoking status, duration, and intensity. Results: UCC risk decreased with higher concentrations of the sum of plasma carotenoids (IRR for the highest compared with the lowest quartile: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.44, 0.93; P-trend = 0.04). Plasma beta-carotene was inversely associated with aggressive UCC (IRR: 0.51; 95% CI: 0.30, 0.88; P-trend = 0.02). Plasma lutein was inversely associated with risk of nonaggressive UCC (IRR: 0.56; 95% CI: 0.32, 0.98; P-trend = 0.05). No association was observed between plasma vitamin C and risk of UCC. Conclusions: Although residual confounding by smoking or other factors cannot be excluded, higher concentrations of plasma carotenoids may reduce risk of UCC, in particular aggressive UCC. Plasma lutein may reduce risk of nonaggressive UCC. Am J Clin Nutr 2012;96:902-10.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There has been consistent evidence for a relationship between smoking and colorectal cancer (CRC), although it is not clear whether the colon or rectum is more sensitive to the effects of smoking. We investigated the relationships between cigarette smoking and risk of CRC and tumor location. METHODS: We analyzed data from 465,879 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study; 2741 developed CRC during the follow-up period (mean, 8.7 years). Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: The risk of colon carcinoma was increased among ever smokers (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.06-1.32) and former cigarette smokers (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.08-1.36), compared with never smokers; the increased risk for current smokers was of borderline significance (HR, 1.13; 95% Cl, 0.98-1.31). When stratified for tumor location, the risk of proximal colon cancer was increased for former (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.04-1.50) and current smokers (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.06-1.64), but the risks for cancers in the distal colon or rectum were not. Subsite analyses showed a nonsignificant difference between the proximal and distal colon (P=.45) for former smokers and a significant difference for current smokers (P=.02). For smokers who had stopped smoking for at least 20 years, the risk of developing colon cancer was similar to that of never smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Ever smokers have an increased risk of colon cancer, which appeared to be more pronounced in the proximal than the distal colon location.

The association between menopausal hormone therapy (HT) and risk of ovarian cancer was assessed among 126,920 post-menopausal women recruited into the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. After an average of 9-year follow-up, 424 incident ovarian cancers were diagnosed. Cox models adjusted for body mass index, smoking status, unilateral ovariectomy, simple hysterectomy, age at menarche, number of full-term pregnancies, and duration of oral contraceptives were used. Compared with baseline never use, current use of any HT was positively associated with risk (HR [hazard ratio], 1.29; 95% CI [confidence interval], 1.01-1.65), while former use was not (HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.70-1.30). Current estrogen-only HT was associated with a 63% higher risk (HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.08-2.47), while current estrogen plus progestin was associated with a smaller and non-significant higher risk (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.89-1.62). Use of tibolone was associated with a twofold greater risk (HR, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.06-4.50), but was based on small numbers. In conclusion, women who currently use HT have a moderate increased risk of ovarian cancer, and which may be stronger for estrogen-only than estrogen plus progestin preparations.

Background: Height and BMI are risk factors for several types of cancer and may be related to circulating concentrations of insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I), a peptide associated with increased cancer risk. Aim: To assess the associations between height, BMI and serum concentrations of IGF-I and IGF binding protein (IGFBP)-1, -2 and -3. Subjects and methods: This cross-sectional analysis included 1142 men and 3589 women aged 32-77 years from the multi-centre study, the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Results: In men, there was a positive association between height and IGF-I; each 10 cm increment in height was associated with an increase in IGF-I concentrations of 4.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3-7.5%, p for trend = 0.005), but this association was not statistically significant for women (0.9%, 95% CI: -0.7 to 2.6%, p for trend = 0.264). In both men and women, the association between IGF-I and BMI was non-linear and those with a BMI of 26-27 kg/m(2) had the highest IGF-I concentration. BMI was strongly inversely related to concentrations of IGFBP-1 and IGFBP-2 in men and in women (p for trend for all < 0.001). Conclusion: Height and BMI are associated with IGF-I and its binding proteins, which may be mechanisms through which body size contributes to increased risk of several cancers.

Results from previous studies investigating the association between fluid intake and urothelial cell carcinomas (UCC) are inconsistent. We evaluated this association among 233,236 subjects in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), who had adequate baseline information on water and total fluid intake. During a mean follow-up of 9.3 years, 513 first primary UCC occurred. At recruitment, habitual fluid intake was assessed by a food frequency questionnaire. Multivariable hazard ratios were estimated using Cox regression stratified by age, sex and center and adjusted for energy intake, smoking status, duration of smoking and lifetime intensity of smoking. When using the lowest tertile of intake as reference, total fluid intake was not associated with risk of all UCC (HR 1.12; 95% CI 0.86-1.45, p-trend = 0.42) or with risk of prognostically high-risk UCC (HR 1.28; 95% CI 0.85-1.93, p-trend = 0.27) or prognostically low-risk UCC (HR 0.93; 95% CI 0.65-1.33, p-trend = 0.74). No associations were observed between risk of UCC and intake of water, coffee, tea and herbal tea and milk and other dairy beverages. For prognostically low-risk UCC suggestions of an inverse association with alcoholic beverages and of a positive association with soft drinks were seen. Increased risks were found for all UCC and prognostically low-risk UCC with higher intake of fruit and vegetable juices. In conclusion, total usual fluid intake is not associated with UCC risk in EPIC. The relationships observed for some fluids may be due to chance, but further investigation of the role of all types of fluid is warranted.

Background: We investigated whether a varied consumption of vegetables and fruits is associated with lower lung cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Methods: After a mean follow-up of 8.7 years, 1,613 of 452,187 participants with complete information were diagnosed with lung cancer. Diet diversity scores (DDS) were used to quantify the variety in fruit and vegetable consumption. Multivariable proportional hazards models were used to assess the associations between DDS and lung cancer risk. All models were adjusted for smoking behavior and the total consumption of fruit and vegetables. Results: With increasing variety in vegetable subgroups, risk of lung cancer decreases [hazard ratios (HR), 0.77; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.64-0.94 highest versus lowest quartile; P trend = 0.02]. This inverse association is restricted to current smokers (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.57-0.93 highest versus lowest quartile; P trend = 0.03). In continuous analyses, in current smokers, lower risks were observed for squamous cell carcinomas with more variety in fruit and vegetable products combined (HR/two products, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.82-0.95), vegetable subgroups (HR/subgroup, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.79-0.97), vegetable products (HR/two products, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.79-0.96), and fruit products (HR/two products, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.72-0.97). Conclusion: Variety in vegetable consumption was inversely associated with lung cancer risk among current smokers. Risk of squamous cell carcinomas was reduced with increasing variety in fruit and/or vegetable consumption, which was mainly driven by the effect in current smokers. Impact: Independent from quantity of consumption, variety in fruit and vegetable consumption may decrease lung cancer risk. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 19(9); 2278-86. (C) 2010 AACR.

Background: The etiologies of glioma and meningioma tumors are largely unknown. Although reproductive hormones are thought to influence the risk of these tumors, epidemiologic data are not supportive of this hypothesis; however, few cohort studies have published on this topic. We examined the relation between reproductive factors and the risk of glioma and meningioma among women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Methods: After a mean of 8.4 years of follow-up, 193 glioma and 194 meningioma cases were identified among 276,212 women. Information on reproductive factors and hormone use was collected at baseline. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to determine hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results: No associations were observed between glioma or meningioma risk and reproductive factors, including age at menarche, parity, age at first birth, menopausal status, and age at menopause. A higher risk of meningioma was observed among postmenopausal women who were current users of hormone replacement therapy (HR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.18-2.71) compared with never users. Similarly, current users of oral contraceptives were at higher risk of meningioma than never users (HR, 3.61; 95% CI, 1.75-7.46). Conclusion: Our results do not support a role for estrogens and glioma risk. Use of exogenous hormones, especially current use, seems to increase meningioma risk. However, these findings could be due to diagnostic bias and require confirmation. Impact: Elucidating the role of hormones in brain tumor development has important implications and needs to be further examined using biological measurements. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 19(10); 2562-9. (C) 2010 AACR.

Cigarette smoking is an established risk factor for pancreatic cancer. However, prospective data for most European countries are lacking, and epidemiologic studies on exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) in relation to pancreatic cancer risk are scarce. We examined the association of cigarette smoking and exposure to ETS with pancreatic cancer risk within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). This analysis was based on 465,910 participants, including 524 first incident pancreatic cancer cases diagnosed after a median follow-up of 8.9 years. Estimates of risk were obtained by Cox proportional hazard models and adjusted for weight, height, and history of diabetes mellitus. An increased risk of pancreatic cancer was found for current cigarette smokers compared with never smokers (HR = 1.71, 95% Cl = 1.36 2.15), and risk increased with greater intensity and pack-years. Former cigarette smokers who quit for less than 5 years were at increased risk of pancreatic cancer (HR = 1.78, 95% Cl = 1.23-2.56), but risk was comparable to never smokers after quitting for 5 years or more. Pancreatic cancer risk was increased among never smokers daily exposed to ETS (for many hours) during childhood (HR = 2.61, 95% Cl = 0.96-7.10) and exposed to ETS at home and/or work (HR = 1.54, 95% Cl = 1.00-2.39). These results suggest that both active cigarette smoking, as well as exposure to ETS, is associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer and that risk is reduced to levels of never smokers within 5 years of quitting.

Circulating concentrations of insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) and IGF binding proteins (IGFBP) have been associated with the risk of several types of cancer. Dietary correlates of IGF-I and IGFBPs are not yet well established. The objective of this study was to assess the association between dietary intake and serum concentrations of IGF-I, IGFBP-1, IGFBP-2, and IGFBP-3 in a cross-sectional analysis of 4,731 men and women taking part in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Diet was assessed using country-specific validated dietary questionnaires. Serum concentrations of IGF-I, IGFBP-1, IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3 were measured, and the associations between diet and IGF-I and IGFBPs were assessed using multiple linear regression adjusting for sex, age, body mass index, smoking status, and alcohol and energy intake. Each I SD increment increase in total and dairy protein and calcium intake was associated with an increase in IGF-I concentration of 2.5%, 2.4%, and 3.3%, respectively (P for trend

Studies in many countries have reported higher lung cancer incidence and mortality in individuals with lower socioeconomic status. To investigate the role of smoking in these inequalities, we used data from 391 251 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study, a cohort of individuals in 10 European countries. We collected information on smoking (history and quantity), fruit and vegetable consumption, and education through questionnaires at study entry and gathered data on lung cancer incidence for a mean of 8.4 years. Socioeconomic status was defined as the highest attained level of education, and participants were grouped by sex and region of residence (Northern Europe, Germany, or Southern Europe). Relative indices of inequality (RIIs) of lung cancer risk unadjusted and adjusted for smoking were estimated using Cox regression models. Additional analyses were performed by histological type. During the study period, 939 men and 692 women developed lung cancer. Inequalities in lung cancer risk (RIImen = 3.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.77 to 4.73, 117 vs 52 per 100 000 person-years for lowest vs highest education level; RIIwomen = 2.39, 95% CI = 1.77 to 3.21, 46 vs 25 per 100 000 person-years) decreased after adjustment for smoking but remained statistically significant (RIImen = 2.29, 95% CI = 1.75 to 3.01; RIIwomen = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.18 to 2.13). Large RIIs were observed among men and women in Northern European countries and among men in Germany, but inequalities in lung cancer risk were reverse (RIIs < 1) among women in Southern European countries. Inequalities differed by histological type. Adjustment for smoking reduced inequalities similarly for all histological types and among men and women in all regions. In all analysis, further adjustment for fruit and vegetable consumption did not change the estimates. Self-reported smoking consistently explains approximately 50% of the inequalities in lung cancer risk due to differences in education.

BACKGROUND: Cancer Antigen 125 (CA125) is currently the best available ovarian cancer screening biomarker. However, CA125 has been limited by low sensitivity and specificity in part due to normal variation between individuals. Personal characteristics that influence CA125 could be used to improve its performance as screening biomarker. METHODS: We developed and validated linear and dichotomous (≥35 U/mL) circulating CA125 prediction models in postmenopausal women without ovarian cancer who participated in one of five large population-based studies: Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO, n = 26,981), European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC, n = 861), the Nurses' Health Studies (NHS/NHSII, n = 81), and the New England Case Control Study (NEC, n = 923). The prediction models were developed using stepwise regression in PLCO and validated in EPIC, NHS/NHSII and NEC. RESULT: The linear CA125 prediction model, which included age, race, body mass index (BMI), smoking status and duration, parity, hysterectomy, age at menopause, and duration of hormone therapy (HT), explained 5% of the total variance of CA125. The correlation between measured and predicted CA125 was comparable in PLCO testing dataset (r = 0.18) and external validation datasets (r = 0.14). The dichotomous CA125 prediction model included age, race, BMI, smoking status and duration, hysterectomy, time since menopause, and duration of HT with AUC of 0.64 in PLCO and 0.80 in validation dataset. CONCLUSIONS: The linear prediction model explained a small portion of the total variability of CA125, suggesting the need to identify novel predictors of CA125. The dichotomous prediction model showed moderate discriminatory performance which validated well in independent dataset. Our dichotomous model could be valuable in identifying healthy women who may have elevated CA125 levels, which may contribute to reducing false positive tests using CA125 as screening biomarker.

BACKGROUND:Cancer Antigen 125 (CA125) is currently the best available ovarian cancer screening biomarker. However, CA125 has been limited by low sensitivity and specificity in part due to normal variation between individuals. Personal characteristics that influence CA125 could be used to improve its performance as screening biomarker. METHODS:We developed and validated linear and dichotomous (≥35 U/mL) circulating CA125 prediction models in postmenopausal women without ovarian cancer who participated in one of five large population-based studies: Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO, n = 26,981), European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC, n = 861), the Nurses' Health Studies (NHS/NHSII, n = 81), and the New England Case Control Study (NEC, n = 923). The prediction models were developed using stepwise regression in PLCO and validated in EPIC, NHS/NHSII and NEC. RESULT:The linear CA125 prediction model, which included age, race, body mass index (BMI), smoking status and duration, parity, hysterectomy, age at menopause, and duration of hormone therapy (HT), explained 5% of the total variance of CA125. The correlation between measured and predicted CA125 was comparable in PLCO testing dataset (r = 0.18) and external validation datasets (r = 0.14). The dichotomous CA125 prediction model included age, race, BMI, smoking status and duration, hysterectomy, time since menopause, and duration of HT with AUC of 0.64 in PLCO and 0.80 in validation dataset. CONCLUSIONS:The linear prediction model explained a small portion of the total variability of CA125, suggesting the need to identify novel predictors of CA125. The dichotomous prediction model showed moderate discriminatory performance which validated well in independent dataset. Our dichotomous model could be valuable in identifying healthy women who may have elevated CA125 levels, which may contribute to reducing false positive tests using CA125 as screening biomarker.

Previous in vitro and case–control studies have found an association between the insulin‐like growth factor (IGF)‐axis and bladder cancer risk. Circulating concentrations of IGF‐I have also been found to be associated with an increased risk of several cancer types; however, the relationship between pre‐diagnostic circulating IGF‐I concentrations and bladder cancer has never been studied prospectively. We investigated the association of pre‐diagnostic plasma concentrations of IGF‐I with risk of overall bladder cancer and urothelial cell carcinoma (UCC) in a case–control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. A total of 843 men and women diagnosed with bladder cancer between 1992 and 2005 were matched with 843 controls by recruitment centre, sex, age at recruitment, date of blood collection, duration of follow‐up, time of day and fasting status at blood collection using an incidence density sampling protocol. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using conditional logistic regression with adjustment for smoking status. No association was found between pre‐diagnostic circulating IGF‐I concentration and overall bladder cancer risk (adjusted OR for highest versus lowest fourth: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.66–1.24, p trend = 0.40) or UCC (n of cases = 776; 0.91, 0.65–1.26, p trend = 0.40). There was no significant evidence of heterogeneity in the association of IGF‐I with bladder cancer risk by tumour aggressiveness, sex, smoking status, or by time between blood collection and diagnosis (p heterogeneity > 0.05 for all). This first prospective study indicates no evidence of an association between plasma IGF‐I concentrations and bladder cancer risk., What's new? Past prospective studies have shown a positive association between circulating insulin‐like growth factor I (IGF‐I) concentration and colorectal, prostate, and breast cancer risk. However, the association between circulating IGF‐I concentrations and bladder cancer risk remains uncertain. Using a nested‐case control study with 843 bladder cancer cases across 9 European countries, for the first time here the authors examined prospectively the association between pre‐diagnostic circulating IGF‐I concentrations and bladder cancer risk. IGF‐I was not associated with overall risk of bladder cancer or urothelial cell carcinoma. Further prospective data, including on tumour aggressiveness, are required to examine the association in greater detail.

BACKGROUND: Although smoking and HPV infection are recognized as important risk factors for oropharyngeal cancer, how their joint exposure impacts on oropharyngeal cancer risk is unclear. Specifically, whether smoking confers any additional risk to HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer is not understood.METHODS: Using HPV serology as a marker of HPV-related cancer, we examined the interaction between smoking and HPV16 in 459 oropharyngeal (and 1445 oral cavity and laryngeal) cancer patients and 3024 control participants from two large European multi-centre studies. Odds ratios and credible intervals [CrI], adjusted for potential confounders, were estimated using Bayesian logistic regression.RESULTS: Both smoking [odds ratio (OR [CrI]: 6.82 [4.52, 10.29]) and HPV seropositivity (OR [CrI]: 235.69 [99.95, 555.74]) were independently associated with oropharyngeal cancer. The joint association of smoking and HPV seropositivity was consistent with that expected on the additive scale (synergy index [CrI]: 1.32 [0.51, 3.45]), suggesting they act as independent risk factors for oropharyngeal cancer.CONCLUSIONS: Smoking was consistently associated with increase in oropharyngeal cancer risk in models stratified by HPV16 seropositivity. In addition, we report that the prevalence of oropharyngeal cancer increases with smoking for both HPV16-positive and HPV16-negative persons. The impact of smoking on HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancer highlights the continued need for smoking cessation programmes for primary prevention of head and neck cancer.

Endometrial cancer (EC) is the fourth most frequent cancer in women in Europe, and as its incidence is increasing, prevention strategies gain further pertinence. Risk prediction models can be a useful tool for identifying women likely to benefit from targeted prevention measures. On the basis of data from 201,811 women (mostly aged 30–65 years) including 855 incident EC cases from eight countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, a model to predict EC was developed. A step-wise model selection process was used to select confirmed predictive epidemiologic risk factors. Piece-wise constant hazard rates in 5-year age-intervals were estimated in a cause-specific competing risks model, five-fold-cross-validation was applied for internal validation. Risk factors included in the risk prediction model were body-mass index (BMI), menopausal status, age at menarche and at menopause, oral contraceptive use, overall and by different BMI categories and overall duration of use, parity, age at first full-term pregnancy, duration of menopausal hormone therapy and smoking status (specific for pre, peri- and post-menopausal women). These variables improved the discriminating capacity to predict risk over 5 years from 71 % for a model based on age alone to 77 % (overall C statistic), and the model was well-calibrated (ratio of expected to observed cases = 0.99). Our model could be used for the identification of women at increased risk of EC in Western Europe. To achieve an EC-risk model with general validity, a large-scale cohort-consortium approach would be needed to assess and adjust for population variation.