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Context Statins and possibly other lipid modifiers increase type 2 diabetes risk and body mass index (BMI). However, to what extent BMI mediates the diabetogenic effects of lipid modifiers remains unclear. Objective We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to investigate the effects of commonly used lipid modifiers on type 2 diabetes risk and glycemic traits, and any mediation by BMI. Methods Using established genetic variants to mimic commonly used lipid modifiers (ie, statins, PCSK9 inhibitors, and ezetimibe), we assessed their associations with type 2 diabetes risk, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), fasting insulin, fasting glucose, and BMI in the largest relevant genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in people of European ancestry, and where possible, in East Asians. We used multivariable MR to examine the role of lipid modifiers independent of BMI. Results Genetically mimicked effects of statins and ezetimibe, but not PCSK9 inhibitors were associated with higher risk of type 2 diabetes (odds ratio [OR] 1.74 [95% CI, 1.49 to 2.03]; 1.92 [1.22 to 3.02]; 1.06 [0.87 to 1.29] per SD reduction in low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol). Of these lipid modifiers, only genetic mimics of statins were associated with higher BMI (0.33 SD [0.29 to 0.38] per SD reduction in LDL-cholesterol), which explained 54% of the total effect of statins on type 2 diabetes risk. Conclusion Higher BMI mediated more than half of the diabetogenic effects of statins, which did not extend to other commonly used lipid modifiers. Further investigations are needed to clarify drug-specific mechanisms underlying the effects of lipid modifiers on type 2 diabetes.

Background:Increasing childhood obesity is a global issue requiring potentially local solutions to ensure it does not continue into adulthood. We systematically identified potentially modifiable targets of obesity at the onset and end of puberty in Hong Kong, the most economically developed major Chinese city.Methods:We conducted an environment-wide association study (EWAS) and an epigenome-wide association study of obesity to systematically assess associations with body mass index (BMI) and waist–hip ratio (WHR) in Hong Kong’s population-representative ‘Children of 1997’ birth cohort. Univariable linear regression was used to select exposures related to obesity at ~11.5 years (BMI and obesity risk n ≤ 7119, WHR n = 5691) and ~17.6 years (n = 3618) at Bonferroni-corrected significance, and multivariable regression to adjust for potential confounders followed by replicated multivariable regression (n = 308) and CpG by CpG analysis (n = 286) at ~23 years. Findings were compared with evidence from published randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and Mendelian randomization (MR) studies.Results:At ~11.5 and~17.6 years the EWAS identified 14 and 37 exposures associated with BMI, as well as 7 and 12 associated with WHR, respectively. Most exposures had directionally consistent associations at ~23 years. Maternal second-hand smoking, maternal weight, and birth weight were consistently associated with obesity. Diet (including dairy intake and artificially sweetened beverages), physical activity, snoring, binge eating, and earlier puberty were positively associated with BMI at ~17.6 years, while eating before sleep was inversely associated with BMI at ~17.6 years. Findings for birth weight, dairy intake, and binge eating are consistent with available evidence from RCTs or MR studies. We found 17 CpGs related to BMI and 17 to WHR.Conclusions:These novel insights into potentially modifiable factors associated with obesity at the outset and the end of puberty could, if causal, inform future interventions to improve population health in Hong Kong and similar Chinese settings.Funding:This study including the follow-up survey and epigenetics testing was supported by the Health and Medical Research Fund Research Fellowship, Food and Health Bureau, Hong Kong SAR Government (#04180097). The DNA extraction of the samples used for epigenetic testing was supported by CFS-HKU1.

Observationally, the association of basal metabolic rate (BMR) with mortality is mixed, although some ageing theories suggest that higher BMR should reduce lifespan. It remains unclear whether a causal association exists. In this one-sample Mendelian randomization study, we aimed to estimate the casual effect of BMR on parental attained age, a proxy for lifespan, using two-sample Mendelian randomization methods. We obtained genetic variants strongly (p-value –8) and independently (r2

Diabetes and hyperlipidaemia are common comorbidities in people with hypertension. Despite similar protective effects on CVD, different classes of antihypertensive drugs have different effects on CVD risk factors, including diabetes, glucose metabolism and lipids. However, these pleiotropic effects have not been assessed in long-term, large randomised controlled trials, especially for East Asians.We used Mendelian randomisation to obtain unconfounded associations of ACE inhibitors, β-blockers (BBs) and calcium channel blockers (CCBs). Specifically, we used genetic variants in drug target genes and related to systolic BP in Europeans and East Asians, and applied them to the largest available genome-wide association studies of diabetes (74,124 cases and 824,006 controls in Europeans, 77,418 cases and 356,122 controls in East Asians), blood glucose levels, HbAAs expected, genetically proxied ACE inhibition, BBs and CCBs were related to lower risk of CAD in both ancestries. Genetically proxied ACE inhibition was associated with a lower risk of diabetes (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.78-0.93), and genetic proxies for BBs were associated with a higher risk of diabetes (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.09). The estimates were similar in East Asians, and were corroborated by systematic review and meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. In both ancestries, genetic proxies for BBs were associated with lower HDL-cholesterol and higher triacylglycerols, and genetic proxies for CCBs were associated with higher LDL-cholesterol. The estimates were robust to the use of different genetic instruments and analytical methods.Our findings suggest protective association of genetically proxied ACE inhibition with diabetes, while genetic proxies for BBs and CCBs possibly relate to an unfavourable metabolic profile. Developing a deeper understanding of the pathways underlying these diverse associations would be worthwhile, with implications for drug repositioning as well as optimal CVD prevention and treatment strategies in people with hypertension, diabetes and/or hyperlipidaemia.

Background Observationally, poorer maternal respiratory health is associated with poorer birth outcomes, possibly confounded by socioeconomic position and other maternal attributes. We used multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) to obtain unconfounded estimates of effect of maternal lung function on birthweight, independent of maternal height. Methods Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) in women were obtained from publicly available summary statistics from the UK Biobank. SNPs for asthma were obtained from the Trans-National Asthma Genetic consortium. SNPs for height in women were obtained from the Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits consortium and the genetic estimates were obtained the UK Biobank. The genetic associations with maternally-driven birthweight were obtained from the Early Growth Genetics consortium. Multivariable MR estimates were obtained using inverse variance weighting with multivariable MR-Egger as sensitivity analysis. Results Maternal lung capacity, as indicated by FVC, was positively associated with maternally-driven birthweight (0.08 per standard deviation, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15) independent of maternal height, whereas no clear such associations were shown for maternal airway function, indicated by FEV1 and peak expiratory flow, or for asthma, on maternally-driven birthweight. Similar findings were shown using MR-Egger. Conclusions These findings suggest that maternal lung function, especially lung capacity independent of maternal height, is directly associated with maternally-driven birthweight, and highlights the importance of maternal respiratory health in fetal growth.

Statins have been suggested as a potential treatment for immune-related diseases. Conversely, statins might trigger auto-immune conditions. To clarify the role of statins in allergic diseases and auto-immune diseases, we conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) study. Using established genetic instruments to mimic statins via 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase (HMGCR) inhibition, we assessed the effects of statins on asthma, eczema, allergic rhinitis, rheumatoid arthritis (RA), psoriasis, type 1 diabetes, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), multiple sclerosis (MS), Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis in the largest available genome wide association studies (GWAS). Genetically mimicked effects of statins via HMGCR inhibition were not associated with any immune-related diseases in either study after correcting for multiple testing; however, they were positively associated with the risk of asthma in East Asians (odds ratio (OR) 2.05 per standard deviation (SD) decrease in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20 to 3.52, p value 0.009). These associations did not differ by sex and were robust to sensitivity analysis. These findings suggested that genetically mimicked effects of statins via HMGCR inhibition have little effect on allergic diseases or auto-immune diseases. However, we cannot exclude the possibility that genetically mimicked effects of statins via HMGCR inhibition might increase the risk of asthma in East Asians.

Background Statins have long been suspected to have pleiotropic effects via thrombotic factors. Randomized controlled trials are too limited to be definitive. We examined the associations of genetically mimicking effects of statins, PCSK9 inhibitors, and alternative lipid targets (in genes LDLR, APOC3, and LPL) on key indicators of coagulation system function, i.e., prothrombin time (PT) and activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT). Methods We assessed the effect of established genetic mimics of effects of lipid modifiers and alternative lipid treatment targets on PT (n = 58,110) and aPTT (n = 37,767), all transformed to z-scores, using Mendelian randomization taking advantage of Biobank Japan. Ischemic heart disease (IHD) was a control outcome. Results Genetically mimicked effects of statins increased PT by 0.31 standard deviation (SD) per SD increase in low-density lipoprotein (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.10–0.51) based on rs12916 but did not affect aPTT. Genetically mimicking effects of targeting LDLR increased PT based on rs688 (0.33 SD per SD increase in triglyceride, 95% CI: 0.03–0.63) but did not affect aPTT. Genetically mimicking effects of PCSK9 inhibitors or targeting APOC3 or LPL had no effect on PT or aPTT. Genetically mimicking effects of statins, PCSK9 inhibitors, and alternative lipid targets reduced risk of IHD in Biobank Japan. Conclusion Statins, and possibly targeting LDLR, may also act via a coagulation cascade factor, likely specific to the extrinsic or common pathway. Further elucidation of the mechanistic pathway may facilitate development of new interventions and inform use of statins particularly in relation to use of other anticoagulants.

Summary Background Since 2013, Hong Kong has sustained the world's highest life expectancy at birth—a key indicator of population health. The reasons behind this achievement remain poorly understood but are of great relevance to both rapidly developing and high-income regions. Here, we aim to compare factors behind Hong Kong's survival advantage over long-living, high-income countries. Methods Life expectancy data from 1960–2020 were obtained for 18 high-income countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development from the Human Mortality Database and for Hong Kong from Hong Kong's Census and Statistics Department. Causes of death data from 1950–2016 were obtained from WHO's Mortality Database. We used truncated cross-sectional average length of life (TCAL) to identify the contributions to survival differences based on 263 million deaths overall. As smoking is the leading cause of premature death, we also compared smoking-attributable mortality between Hong Kong and the high-income countries. Findings From 1979–2016, Hong Kong accumulated a substantial survival advantage over high-income countries, with a difference of 1·86 years (95% CI 1·83–1·89) for males and 2·50 years (2·47–2·53) for females. As mortality from infectious diseases declined, the main contributors to Hong Kong's survival advantage were lower mortality from cardiovascular diseases for both males (TCAL difference 1·22 years, 95% CI 1·21–1·23) and females (1·19 years, 1·18–1·21), cancer for females (0·47 years, 0·45–0·48), and transport accidents for males (0·27 years, 0·27–0·28). Among high-income populations, Hong Kong recorded the lowest cardiovascular mortality and one of the lowest cancer mortalities in women. These findings were underpinned by the lowest absolute smoking-attributable mortality in high-income regions (39·7 per 100 000 in 2016, 95% CI 34·4–45·0). Reduced smoking-attributable mortality contributed to 50·5% (0·94 years, 0·93–0·95) of Hong Kong's survival advantage over males in high-income countries and 34·8% (0·87 years, 0·87–0·88) of it in females. Interpretation Hong Kong's leading longevity is the result of fewer diseases of poverty while suppressing the diseases of affluence. A unique combination of economic prosperity and low levels of smoking with development contributed to this achievement. As such, it offers a framework that could be replicated through deliberate policies in developing and developed populations globally. Funding Early Career Scheme (RGC ECS Grant #27602415), Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee of Hong Kong.

Men are more vulnerable to ischemic heart disease (IHD) than women, possibly due to testosterone. Correspondingly, sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) which lowers circulating testosterone might protect men against IHD. SHBG may also affect IHD independent of testosterone, which has not previously been examined. To assess the sex-specific role of SHBG in IHD, in univariable Mendelian randomization (MR), we used sex-specific, genome-wide significant genetic variants to predict SHBG, and examined their association with IHD in the UK Biobank. We also replicated using genetic instruments from Japanese men and applied to Biobank Japan. To assess the role of SHGB independent of testosterone in men, we used multivariable MR controlling for testosterone. Genetically predicted SHBG was associated with lower IHD risk in men [odds ratio (OR) 0.78 per standard deviation, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70 to 0.87], and the association was less clear in women. The estimates were similar in Japanese. The inverse association remained after controlling for testosterone in men (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.88). SHBG might lower the risk of IHD in men, with a role independent of testosterone. Exploring intervention strategies that increase SHBG is important for targeting IHD treatments.

The role of interleukin (IL)-1 family members/receptors in lung cancer remains uncertain due to the susceptibility of observed associations to confounding. We appraised the association of IL-1 family members/receptors with lung cancer and its subtypes [lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) and squamous cell lung cancer (LUSC)] using two-sample Mendelian randomization. This study found that no IL-1 family members/receptors were significantly associated with lung cancer and its subtypes risk after correction for multiple testing. However, suggestive total effects of increased risk were noted for genetically predicted IL-1Racp with lung cancer (P = 0.006), IL-1α with LUAD (P = 0.027), and IL-1Racp with LUSC (P = 0.008). Suggestive direct effects were also noted for IL-1β, IL-1Ra, IL-36γ with lung cancer, IL-1α/β, IL-1Ra with LUAD, and IL-1β, IL-18BP with LUSC, after adjusting for genetically predicted effects of other IL-1 family members/receptors. Taken together, our findings suggest that interventions decreasing IL-1Racp might protect against lung cancer, perhaps via IL-1α/β or IL-1Ra.

BackgroundIncreasing childhood adiposity is a global issue requiring potentially local solutions to ensure it does not continue into adulthood. We systematically identified potentially modifiable targets of adiposity at the onset and end of puberty in Hong Kong the most economically developed major Chinese city.MethodsWe conducted an environment-wide association study (EWAS) and an epigenome-wide association study of adiposity to systematically assess associations with body mass index (BMI) and waist-hip ratio (WHR) in Hong Kong’s population-representative “Children of 1997” birth cohort. Univariable linear regression was used to select exposures related to adiposity at ~11.5 years (BMI n≤7,119, WHR n=5,691) and ~17.6 years (n = 3,618) at Bonferroni-corrected significance, and multivariable linear regression to adjust for potential confounders followed by replication (n=308) and CpG by CpG analysis (n=286) at ~23 years. Findings were compared with evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and Mendelian randomization (MR) studies.ResultsAt ~11.5 and ~17.6 years the EWAS identified 14 and 37 exposures associated with BMI, as well as seven and 12 associated with WHR respectively. Most exposures had directionally consistent associations at ~23 years. Maternal second-hand smoking, maternal weight, and birth weight were consistently associated with adiposity. Diet (including dairy intake and artificially sweetened beverages), physical activity, snoring, binge eating, and earlier puberty were positively associated with BMI at ~17.6 years, while eating before sleep was inversely associated with BMI at ~17.6 years. Findings for birth weight, dairy intake, binge eating, and possibly earlier puberty are consistent with available evidence from RCTs or MR studies We found 21 CpGs related to BMI and 18 to WHR.ConclusionsThese novel insights into potentially modifiable factors associated with adiposity at the outset and the end of puberty could, if causal, inform future interventions to improve population health in Hong Kong and similar Chinese settings.FundingThis study was supported by the Health and Medical Research Fund Research Fellowship, Food and Health Bureau, Hong Kong SAR Government (#04180097). The DNA extraction was supported by CFS-HKU1.

Introduction Observational studies suggest earlier puberty is associated with higher adulthood blood pressure (BP), but these findings have not been replicated using Mendelian randomization (MR). We examined this question sex-specifically using larger genome-wide association studies (GWAS) with more extensive measures of pubertal timing. Methods We obtained genetic instruments proxying pubertal maturation (age at menarche [AAM] or voice breaking [AVB]) from the largest published GWAS. We applied them to summary sex-specific genetic associations with systolic and diastolic BP z-scores, and self-reported hypertension in women (n = 194 174) and men (n = 167 020) from the UK Biobank, using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis. We conducted sensitivity analyses using other MR methods, including multivariable MR adjusted for childhood obesity proxied by body mass index (BMI). We used late pubertal growth as a validation outcome. Results AAM (beta per 1-year later = -0.030 [95% confidence interval, -0.055 to -0.005] and AVB (beta -0.058 [95% CI, -0.100 to -0.015]) were inversely associated with systolic BP independent of childhood BMI, as were diastolic BP (-0.035 [95% CI, -0.060 to -0.009] for AAM and -0.046 [95% CI, -0.089 to -0.004] for AVB) and self-reported hypertension (odds ratio 0.89 [95% CI, 0.84-0.95] for AAM and 0.87 [95% CI, 0.79-0.96] for AVB). AAM and AVB were positively associated with late pubertal growth, as expected. The results were robust to sensitivity analysis using other MR methods. Conclusion Timing of pubertal maturation was associated with adulthood BP independent of childhood BMI, highlighting the role of pubertal maturation timing in midlife BP.

We aimed to evaluate whether genetically predicted HbA1c has an effect on the risk of cardiovascular diseases and investigate the shape of the relationship of genetically predicted HbA1c with cardiovascular diseases. We performed linear univariable, multivariable and non-linear Mendelian randomisation analyses in 373,571 white British participants (mean age 56.9) from the UK Biobank. In univariable linear Mendelian randomisation analysis, a 1 mmol/mol increase in genetically predicted HbA1c was associated with higher risk of coronary artery disease (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02, 1.05), stroke (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00, 1.05) and hypertension (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01, 1.03). Multivariable Mendelian randomisation adjusted for the effect of haemoglobin gave a consistent conclusion for coronary artery disease. The associations with stroke and hypertension were directionally similar but with wider CI overlapping the null. Non-linear Mendelian randomisation indicated that the shape of the effect of genetically predicted HbA1c on cardiovascular outcomes was likely linear. The study suggests a detrimental effect of HbA1c on coronary artery disease in both men and women, and the effect is via a glycaemic characteristic. The shape of the genetic association of HbA1c with these cardiovascular outcomes, in particular coronary artery disease, is likely to be linear.

Background l-carnitine is emerging as an item of interest for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention and treatment, but controversy exists. To examine the effectiveness and safety of l-carnitine, we assessed how genetically different levels of l-carnitine are associated with CVD risk and its risk factors. Given higher CVD incidence and l-carnitine in men, we also examined sex-specific associations. Methods We used Mendelian randomization to obtain unconfounded estimates. Specifically, we used genetic variants to predict l-carnitine, and obtained their associations with coronary artery disease (CAD), ischemic stroke, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation, as well as CVD risk factors (type 2 diabetes, glucose, HbA1c, insulin, lipid profile, blood pressure and body mass index) in large consortia and established cohorts, as well as sex-specific association in the UK Biobank. We obtained the Wald estimates (genetic association with CVD and its risk factors divided by the genetic association with l-carnitine) and combined them using inverse variance weighting. In sensitivity analysis, we used different analysis methods robust to pleiotropy and replicated using an l-carnitine isoform, acetyl-carnitine. Results Genetically predicted l-carnitine was nominally associated with higher risk of CAD overall (OR 1.07 per standard deviation (SD) increase in l-carnitine, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.11) and in men (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.16) but had a null association in women (OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.09). These associations were also robust to different methods and evident for acetyl-carnitine. Conclusions Our findings do not support a beneficial association of l-carnitine with CVD and its risk factors but suggest potential harm. l-carnitine may also exert a sex-specific role in CAD. Consideration of the possible sex disparity and exploration of the underlying pathways would be worthwhile.

BACKGROUND The impact of selenium on coronary artery disease (CAD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) remains unclear with inconsistent results from observational studies and randomized controlled trials. We used Mendelian randomization to obtain unconfounded estimates of the effect of selenium on CAD, T2D, lipids and glycemic traits. METHODS We applied genetic variants strongly (P

APOE genotypes are associated with ischemic heart disease (IHD), several other cardiovascular diseases and dementia. Previous studies have not comprehensively considered all genotypes, especially ε2ε2, nor associations by age and sex, although IHD incidence differs by sex. In the UK Biobank, including 391,992 white British participants, we compared effects of APOE genotypes on IHD and its risk factors. Compared to the ε3ε3 genotype, ε2ε2 was not clearly associated with IHD but was associated with lower plasma apolipoprotein B (apoB). The ε2ε3 genotype conferred lower IHD risk, systolic blood pressure (SBP), pulse pressure and plasma apoB than ε3ε3. ε3ε4 and ε4ε4 conferred higher IHD risk, higher pulse pressure and plasma apoB, but lower glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) than ε3ε3. The associations by age and sex were fairly similar, except ε2ε2 compared to ε3ε3 was marginally positively associated with IHD in the younger age group and nominally inversely associated with SBP in men. ε3ε4 compared to ε3ε3 was nominally positively associated with SBP in women. APOE genotypes affect IHD risk increasingly from ε2ε3, ε3ε3, ε3ε4 to ε4ε4, with similar patterns for pulse pressure and plasma apoB, but not for diabetes. Associations with blood pressure differed by sex. Greater understanding of products of APOE and their effects might generate targets of intervention.

Background Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and/or in combination with calcium channel blockers (CCBs) are generally recommended as the first-line antihypertensive therapy for people with hypertension and kidney dysfunction. Evidence from large randomized controlled trials comprehensively comparing renal effects of different classes of antihypertensive drugs is lacking. Methods We used a Mendelian randomization study to obtain unconfounded associations of genetic proxies for antihypertensives with kidney function. Specifically, we used published genetic variants in genes regulating target proteins of these drugs and then applied to a meta-analysis of the largest available genome-wide association studies of kidney function (estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR), and albuminuria). Inverse variance weighting was used as the main analysis and to combine estimates from different sources. Results Genetically predicted ACE inhibition was associated with higher eGFR (effect size 0.06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.008, 0.11), while genetic proxies for beta-blockers were associated with lower eGFR (− 0.02, 95% CI − 0.04, − 0.004) when meta-analyzing the UK Biobank and CKDGen. Genetic proxies for CCBs were associated with lower UACR (− 0.15, 95% CI − 0.28, − 0.02) and lower risk of albuminuria (odds ratio 0.58, 95% CI 0.37, 0.90) in CKDGen. The associations were robust to using different analysis methods and different genetic instruments. Conclusions Our findings suggest the reno-protective associations of genetically proxied ACE inhibitors and CCBs, while genetic proxies for beta-blockers may be related to lower eGFR. Understanding the underlying mechanisms would be valuable, with implications for drug development and repositioning of treatments for kidney disease.

This study aims to evaluate the causal association of blood pressure (BP) with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Two-sample Mendelian randomization was performed using a large genome-wide association study (n=299 024) and the UK Biobank cohort (n=375 256). We identified 327 and 364 single-nucleotide polymorphisms strongly and independently associated with systolic BP and diastolic BP, respectively, as genetic instruments to assess the causal association of BP with total CVD, CVD mortality, and 14 cardiovascular conditions. Nonlinearity was examined with nonlinear instrumental variable assumptions. Genetically predicted BP was significantly positively associated with total CVD (systolic BP, per 10 mm Hg: odds ratio [OR], 1.32 [95% CI, 1.25–1.40]; diastolic BP, per 5 mm Hg: OR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.15–1.26]). Similar positive causal associations were observed for 14 cardiovascular conditions including ischemic heart disease (systolic BP, per 10 mm Hg: OR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.24–1.41]; diastolic BP, per 5 mm Hg: OR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.14–1.27]) and stroke (systolic BP, per 10 mm Hg: OR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.24–1.48]; diastolic BP, per 5 mm Hg: OR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.12–1.28]). Nonlinearity Mendelian randomization test demonstrated linear causal association of BP with these outcomes. Consistent estimates were observed in sensitivity analyses, suggesting robustness of the associations and minimal horizontal pleiotropy. The linear positive causal association of BP and CVD was consistent with previous findings that lower BP is better, thus consolidating clinical knowledge on hypertension management in CVD risk reduction.

BACKGROUND: Kidney function declines faster in men. Testosterone levels may mediate the sex disparity. Correspondingly, levels of sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG), which modulates sex hormones, might also be relevant to the lower kidney function in men. The sex-specific role of SHBG is unclear. METHODS: A sex-specific, Mendelian randomization (MR) study provided unconfounded estimates of SHBG levels among the United Kingdom Biobank population. Univariable MR applied 357 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in men and 359 SNPs in women. These published SNPs strongly (P

Background Systemic inflammation has been suggested to be associated with Alzheimer’s-disease progression, although whether it is a cause or a downstream effect is still controversial. This study aims to assess the effect of systemic inflammatory regulators on Alzheimer’s disease within a bidirectional Mendelian-randomization design. Methods Genetic associations with Alzheimer’s disease were obtained from the largest and most up-to-date genome-wide association study (GWAS) (cases and proxy cases: 71 880; controls: 383 378) and with inflammatory regulators from two recent GWASs on the human proteome and cytokines. Estimates were obtained by inverse-variance weighting with sensitivity analyses using MR-Egger, weighted median and MR-PRESSO. Possible bias due to selective survival and competing risk was also considered. Results None of 41 systemic inflammatory regulators was associated with risk of Alzheimer’s disease with consistent results in validation analysis. Conversely, Alzheimer’s disease was suggestively associated with five systemic inflammatory regulators, i.e. basic fibroblast growth factor, granulocyte-colony-stimulating factor, interferon gamma, interleukin-13 and interleukin-7. Conclusion The systemic inflammatory regulators considered did not appear to be associated with the risk of Alzheimer’s disease. Conversely, specific systemic inflammatory regulators may be downstream effects of Alzheimer’s disease or consequences of common factors causing both inflammation and Alzheimer’s disease.

Alzheimer's disease may have an autoimmune component, but the association is unclear.The objective of this Mendelian randomization (MR) study was to evaluate the association of liability to autoimmune diseases with Alzheimer's disease.A systematic search was done using PubMed to identify autoimmune diseases that have been suggested as associated with Alzheimer's disease. Genetic predictors of these autoimmune diseases were obtained from the largest and most recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Genetic associations with clinically-diagnosed Alzheimer's disease were obtained from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project GWAS (21982 cases; 41944 controls); and with parental and sibling history of Alzheimer's disease from the UK Biobank GWAS (27696 maternal, 14338 paternal and 2171 sibling cases). MR estimates were obtained using inverse variance weighting, MR-Egger and weighted median. To address possible selection bias due to inevitably recruiting only survivors, the analysis was repeated in younger people, i.e., UK Biobank siblings and adjusting for competing risk of Alzheimer's disease.Of the 7 autoimmune diseases considered, liability to psoriasis and sarcoidosis were not associated with Alzheimer's disease. Some evidence was found for liability to multiple sclerosis being associated with higher risk and liability to Sjogren's syndrome with lower risk of Alzheimer's disease. Associations found for liability to giant cell arteritis, type 1 diabetes and rheumatoid arthritis were inconsistent in sensitivity analyses.Liability to multiple sclerosis and Sjogren's syndrome could be associated with Alzheimer's disease. The underlying mechanisms, such as the role of myelin and neuroinflammation, should be further investigated.

Earlier pubertal development is only partially explained by childhood body mass index; the role of other factors, such as childhood infections, is less understood. Using data from the LEGACY Girls Study (North America, 2011–2016), we prospectively examined the associations between childhood viral infections (cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), herpes simplex virus (HSV) 1, HSV2) and pubertal timing. We measured exposures based on seropositivity in premenarcheal girls (n = 490). Breast and pubic hair development were classified based on mother-reported Tanner Stage (TS) (TS2+ compared with TS1), adjusting for age, body mass index, and sociodemographic factors. The average age at first blood draw was 9.8 years (standard deviation, 1.9 years). The prevalences were 31% CMV+, 37% EBV+, 14% HSV1+, 0.4% HSV2+, and 16% for both CMV+/EBV+ coinfection. CMV+ infection without coinfection was associated with developing breasts an average of 7 months earlier (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.12, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32, 3.40). CMV infection without coinfection and HSV1 and/or HSV2 infection were associated with developing pubic hair 9 months later (HR = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.24, 0.71, and HR = 0.42, 95% CI: 0.22, 0.81, respectively). Infection was not associated with menarche. If replicated in larger cohorts with blood collection prior to any breast development, this study supports the hypothesis that childhood infections might play a role in altering pubertal timing.

Aim Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE 2) is the binding domain for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and SARSCoV-2. Some antihypertensive drugs affect ACE2 expression or activity (ACE inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor blockers [ARBs]), suggesting use of other hypertensives might be preferable, such as calcium channel blockers (CCBs). Given the limited evidence, the International Society of Hypertension does not support such a policy. Methods We used a Mendelian randomization study to obtain unconfounded associations of antihypertensives, instrumented by published genetic variants in genes regulating target proteins of these drugs, with immune (lymphocyte and neutrophil percentage) and inflammatory (tumour necrosis factor alpha [TNF-α]) markers in the largest available genome-wide association studies. Results Genetically predicted effects of ACE inhibitors increased lymphocyte percentage (0.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.35, 1.22), decreased neutrophil percentage (-0.64, 95% CI -1.09, -0.20) and possibly lowered TNF-α (-4.92, 95% CI -8.50, -1.33). CCBs showed a similar pattern for immune function (lymphocyte percentage 0.21, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.36; neutrophil percentage -0.23, 95% CI -0.39 to -0.08) but had no effect on TNF-α, as did potassium-sparing diuretics and aldosterone antagonists, and vasodilator antihypertensives. ARBs and other classes of hypertensives had no effect on immune function or TNF-α. Conclusion Varying effects of different classes of antihypertensives on immune and inflammatory markers do not suggest antihypertensive use based on their role in ACE2 expression, but instead suggest investigation of the role of antihypertensives in immune function and inflammation might reveal important information that could optimize their use in SARSCoV-2.

This study was carried out to assess the effect of amyloid and tau on Alzheimer’s disease using two-sample Mendelian randomization design. Genetic associations with plasma amyloid species (amyloid precursor protein, amyloid-like protein 2, serum amyloid P-component, amyloid beta peptide), cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) amyloid beta, total tau, and phosphorylated tau181 were extracted from the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) available. Genetic associations with Alzheimer’s disease were obtained from a GWAS of proxy-cases based on family history of Alzheimer’s disease with 314,278 participants from the UK Biobank and a GWAS with clinically diagnosed Alzheimer’s disease from the International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project (IGAP) with 21,982 cases and 41,944 controls. Estimates were obtained using inverse variance weighting with sensitivity analyses including MR-Egger, weighted median and MR-PRESSO. Presence of bias due to selective survival and competing risk was also considered. Plasma amyloid species, CSF total tau and phosphorylated tau181 were not associated with Alzheimer’s disease. For CSF Aβ42, no association was found using the proxy-cases but an inverse association was found after removing outliers with MR-PRESSO using IGAP. Higher genetically predicted (p

The mammalian Target of Rapamycin complex 1 (mTORC1) nutrient-sensing pathway is a central regulator of cell growth and metabolism and is dysregulated in diabetes. The eukaryotic translation initiation factor 4E (EIF-4E) protein, a key regulator of gene translation and protein function, is controlled by mTORC1 and EIF-4E Binding Proteins (EIF4EBPs). Both EIF4EBPs and ribosomal protein S6K kinase (RP-S6K) are downstream effectors regulated by mTORC1 but converge to regulate two independent pathways. We investigated whether the risk of type 2 diabetes varied with genetically predicted EIF-4E, EIF-4A, EIF-4G, EIF4EBP, and RP-S6K circulating levels using Mendelian Randomization. We estimated the causal role of EIF-4F complex, EIF4EBP, and S6K in the circulation on type 2 diabetes, based on independent single nucleotide polymorphisms strongly associated (p = 5 × 10–6) with EIF-4E (16 SNPs), EIF-4A (11 SNPs), EIF-4G (6 SNPs), EIF4EBP2 (12 SNPs), and RP-S6K (16 SNPs). The exposure data were obtained from the INTERVAL study. We applied these SNPs for each exposure to publically available genetic associations with diabetes from the DIAbetes Genetics Replication And Meta-analysis (DIAGRAM) case (n = 26,676) and control (n = 132,532) study (mean age 57.4 years). We meta-analyzed SNP-specific Wald-estimates using inverse variance weighting with multiplicative random effects and conducted sensitivity analysis. Mendelian Randomization (MR-Base) R package was used in the analysis. The PhenoScanner curated database was used to identify disease associations with SNP gene variants. EIF-4E is associated with a lowered risk of type 2 diabetes with an odds ratio (OR) 0.94, 95% confidence interval (0.88, 0.99, p = 0.03) with similar estimates from the weighted median and MR-Egger. Similarly, EIF-4A was associated with lower risk of type 2 diabetes with odds ratio (OR) 0.90, 95% confidence interval (0.85, 0.97, p = 0.0003). Sensitivity analysis using MR-Egger and weighed median analysis does not indicate that there is a pleiotropic effect. This unbiased Mendelian Randomization estimate is consistent with a protective causal association of EIF-4E and EIF-4A on type 2 diabetes. EIF-4E and EIF-4A may be targeted for intervention by repurposing existing therapeutics to reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes.

Reasons for the sexual disparity in chronic kidney disease (CKD) are unclear. To provide insight we contextualised these differences within evolutionary biology, and explored sex-specific effects of insulin resistance because it may have sex-specific effects on the reproductive axis. Impaired kidney function may also cause insulin resistance. We assessed these possibilities using bi-directional, sex-specific, two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR). Given that fasting insulin, fasting glucose and HbA1c are related, we used MR-Bayesian model averaging (MR-BMA) to identify the best-fitting model and most influential exposure. Genetic associations with glycaemic traits were obtained from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in Europeans without diabetes (n = 108,557 for fasting insulin, as a proxy for insulin resistance, and for fasting glucose, n = 123,665 for HbA1c in the Meta-Analyses of Glucose and Insulin-related traits Consortium [MAGIC]), and applied to GWAS of 480,698 Europeans for overall associations with CKD (cases n = 41,395) and eGFR. We also used sex-specific individual information in white British (179,917 men, 6016 CKD cases; 212,079 women, 5958 CKD cases) from the UK Biobank. Univariable or multivariable MR was used to assess the role of glycaemic trait(s) selected by MR-BMA in CKD and kidney function. Genetic variants predicting eGFR were used to assess the role of kidney function in the most influential exposure(s). Fasting insulin was selected as the most likely exposure by both overall and sex-specific MR-BMA. It increased CKD in men (OR 7.23 per pmol/l higher fasting insulin [95% CI 2.46, 21.2]) but not in women (OR 1.05 [95% CI 0.21, 5.21]), and reduced eGFR in men (−0.04 [95% CI −0.07, −0.01]) but not in women (0.01 [95% CI −0.02, 0.03]). Genetically predicted eGFR was unrelated to fasting insulin. Genetically predicted fasting insulin was sex-specifically associated with CKD and unhealthier kidney function but was not affected by kidney function.

Context Glucagon acts reciprocally with insulin to regular blood glucose. However, the effect of glucagon on cardiovascular disease has not been widely studied. It has been suggested that insulin may increase the risk of ischemic heart disease. Objective To investigate whether glucagon, the main counteracting hormone of insulin, plays a role in development of ischemic heart disease. Design, Setting, and Participants In this 2-sample Mendelian randomization study, we estimated the causal effect of glucagon on ischemic heart disease and its risk factors using the inverse-variance weighted method with multiplicative random effects and multiple sensitivity analyses. Genetic associations with glucagon and ischemic heart disease and its risk factors, including type 2 diabetes and fasting insulin, were obtained from publicly available genome-wide association studies. Main Outcome Measure Odds ratio for ischemic heart disease and its risk factors per 1 standard deviation change in genetically predicted glucagon. Results Twenty-four single-nucleotide polymorphisms strongly (P < 5 × 10−6) and independently (r2 < 0.05) predicting glucagon were obtained. Genetically predicted higher glucagon was associated with an increased risk of ischemic heart disease (inverse-variance weighted odds ratio, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.0003-1.05) but not with type 2 diabetes (inverse-variance weighted odds ratio, 0.998, 95% confidence interval, 0.97-1.03), log-transformed fasting insulin (inverse-variance weighted beta, 0.002, 95% confidence interval, -0.01 to 0.01), other glycemic traits, blood pressure, reticulocyte, or lipids. Conclusion Glucagon might have an adverse impact on ischemic heart disease. Relevance of the underlying pathway to existing and potential interventions should be investigated.

Background Blood pressure (BP) and body mass index (BMI) trends during childhood and adolescence are complex, making context-specific projections necessary to inform prevention and presage changes. Objective This study aimed to project BP and BMI in Hong Kong Chinese children and adolescents from 2015 to 2024 based on trends in BP and BMI observed from 1996/99 to 2014. Methods We decomposed recent trends into sex-specific contributions of age, period and cohort using age-period-cohort linear regression with Bayesian inference and autoregressive priors based on BP in children and adolescents aged 9–18 years from 1999 to 2014 and BMI in those aged 6–18 years from 1996 to 2014. We then used the resultant models to project BP and BMI from 2015 to 2024. Results During the study period, systolic BP decreased from 1999 to 2004/5 before gradually increasing to 2014 during childhood (for boys: from 104.6 to 101.9 and then to 103.4 mmHg) and during adolescence. Similar patterns were observed for diastolic BP. BMI generally increased from 1996 to 2009 before falling to 2014 during childhood (e.g. for boys: from 17.2 to 18.0 and then to 17.1 kg/m2). From 2015 onwards, systolic BP was projected to increase in girls, but remain stable in boys. For both sexes, diastolic BP was projected to increase, whereas BMI was projected to decrease to 2024. Conclusions In this economically developed Chinese setting, future trends in BP and BMI in children and adolescents are predicted to be divergent, consistent with prior discordant trends in BP and BMI.

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a term that applies to the use of genetic variation to address causal questions about how modifiable exposures influence different outcomes. The principles of MR are based on Mendel's laws of inheritance and instrumental variable estimation methods, which enable the inference of causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding. In this Primer, we outline the principles of MR, the instrumental variable conditions underlying MR estimation and some of the methods used for estimation. We go on to discuss how the assumptions underlying an MR study can be assessed and give methods of estimation that are robust to certain violations of these assumptions. We give examples of a range of studies in which MR has been applied, the limitations of current methods of analysis and the outlook for MR in the future. The difference between the assumptions required for MR analysis and other forms of non-interventional epidemiological studies means that MR can be used as part of a triangulation across multiple sources of evidence for causal inference.

Background Rapid growth is related to adverse respiratory outcomes although possibly confounded or limited by growth modelling methods. We investigated the association of infant and pubertal growth with lung function, wheezing and asthma in a non-Western setting. Methods In Hong Kong’s ‘Children of 1997’ Chinese birth cohort (n = 8327), weight during infancy and weight, height and body mass index (BMI) during puberty were modelled using a super-imposition by translation and rotation model to identify (larger or smaller) size, (earlier or later) tempo and (slower or faster) velocity. Sex-specific associations with forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1), FEV1/FVC (Global Lung function Initiative z-score) and self-reported wheezing and asthma at ∼17.5 years were assessed. Results For each fraction higher than average weight growth velocity during infancy, FVC was higher in boys (0.90 SD, 95% CI 0.35; 1.44) and girls (0.77 SD, 95% CI 0.24; 1.30), FEV1/FVC was lower (–0.74 SD, 95% CI –1.38; –0.10) and wheezing was higher (odds ratio 6.92, 95% CI 1.60; 29.99) in boys and an inverse association with FVC was observed for tempo but not for size. Associations for weight growth velocity in puberty were similar but weaker. Greater size and higher velocity of BMI growth was associated with higher FVC, lower FEV1/FVC and higher asthma and wheezing risk. Conclusion Accelerated infant and pubertal weight growth were associated with disproportionate lung size and airway growth, and higher risk of asthma; optimizing early-life growth patterns could be important.

Increases in minimum wages have been associated with reductions in suicide rates in the United States, but little evidence is available for Asia where social and contextual factors, as well as drivers of suicide, may be different. We investigated the impact of the introduction of the minimum wage in Hong Kong in May 2011 on suicide rates using an interrupted time series design for the period January 2006 to December 2016. We investigated both immediate and gradual changes in monthly suicide rates after the introduction of the minimum wage taking into account secular trends. We conducted stratified analyses by age and gender. In total 9396 suicides were recorded in Hong Kong during the 11-year study period. Introduction of the minimum wage was associated with an immediate decrease of 13.0% in the monthly suicide rate (95% confidence interval (CI) 5.4%-19.9%, P = 0.001). There was an immediate decrease of 15.8% in older working aged (25-64 years) men (95% CI: 4.2%-25.9%, P = 0.009). Point estimates of immediate effect for other subgroups were also in a negative direction, but were not statistically significant. There was no evidence of a gradual effect on suicide rates at the population level or by subgroup other than a small increase in younger working aged men. We estimate that 633 suicides were prevented by the minimum wage legislation for the period from May 2011 to December 2016, the majority in older working aged men. Our results provide new evidence that, similar to findings in Western settings, minimum wages may help to reduce suicide in Asia, particularly for working age men. Our study highlights the importance of examining the health impacts of government economic policy and suggests minimum wages may provide policy makers with an upstream population-based strategy to reduce suicide rates.

The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) blood pressure (BP) guidelines lowered the hypertension threshold to ≥ 130/80 mmHg, but the role of diastolic BP remains contested. This two-sample mendelian randomisation study used replicated genetic variants predicting systolic and diastolic BP applied to the UK Biobank and large genetic consortia, including of cardiovascular diseases and parental lifespan, to obtain total and direct effects. Systolic and diastolic BP had positive total effects on CVD (odds ratio (OR) per standard deviation 2.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.95, 2.37 and OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.73, 2.11, respectively). Direct effects were similar for systolic BP (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.48, 2.25) but completely attenuated for diastolic BP (1.18, 95% CI 0.97, 1.44), although diastolic BP was associated with coronary artery disease (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.03, 1.50). Systolic and diastolic BP had similarly negative total (− 0.20 parental attained age z-score, 95% CI − 0.22, − 0.17 and − 0.17, 95% CI − 0.20, − 0.15, respectively) and direct negative effects on longevity. Our findings suggest systolic BP has larger direct effects than diastolic BP on CVD, but both have negative effects (total and direct) on longevity, supporting the 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines lowering both BP targets.

Selection bias is increasingly acknowledged as a limitation of Mendelian randomization (MR). However, few methods exist to assess this issue. We focus on two plausible causal structures relevant to MR studies and illustrate the data-generating process underlying selection bias via simulation studies. We conceptualize the use of control exposures to validate MR estimates derived from selected samples by detecting potential selection bias and reproducing the exposure–outcome association of primary interest based on subject matter knowledge. We discuss the criteria for choosing the control exposures. We apply the proposal in an MR study investigating the potential effect of higher transferrin with stroke (including ischemic and cardioembolic stroke) using transferrin saturation and iron status as control exposures. Theoretically, selection bias affects associations of genetic instruments with the outcome in selected samples, violating the exclusion-restriction assumption and distorting MR estimates. Our applied example showing inconsistent effects of genetically predicted higher transferrin and higher transferrin saturation on stroke suggests the potential selection bias. Furthermore, the expected associations of genetically predicted higher iron status on stroke and longevity indicate no systematic selection bias. The routine use of control exposures in MR studies provides a valuable tool to validate estimated causal effects. Like the applied example, an antagonist, decoy, or exposure with similar biological activity as the exposure of primary interest, which has the same potential selection bias sources as the exposure–outcome association, is suggested as the control exposure. An additional or a validated control exposure with a well-established association with the outcome is also recommended to explore possible systematic selection bias.

Background Previous large observational cohort studies showed higher blood pressure (BP) positively associated with cancer. We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to obtain less confounded estimates of BP on total and site-specific cancers. Methods We applied replicated genetic instruments for systolic and diastolic BP to summary genetic associations with total cancer (37387 cases, 367856 non-cases) from the UK Biobank, and 17 site-specific cancers (663–17881 cases) from a meta-analysis of the UK Biobank and the Kaiser Permanente Genetic Epidemiology Research on Adult Health and Aging. We used inverse-variance weighting with multiplicative random effects as the main analysis, and sensitivity analyses including the weighted median, MR-Egger and multivariable MR adjusted for body mass index and for smoking. For validation, we included breast (Breast Cancer Association Consortium: 133384 cases, 113789 non-cases), prostate (Prostate Cancer Association Group to Investigate Cancer Associated Alterations in the Genome Consortium: 79194 cases, 61112 non-cases) and lung (International Lung and Cancer Consortium: 10246 cases, 38295 non-cases) cancer from large consortia. We used asthma as a negative control outcome. Results Systolic and diastolic BP were unrelated to total cancer (OR 0.98 per standard deviation higher [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89, 1.07] and OR 1.00 [95% CI 0.92, 1.08]) and to site-specific cancers after accounting for multiple testing, with consistent findings from consortia. BP was nominally associated with melanoma and possibly kidney cancer, and as expected, not associated with asthma. Sensitivity analyses using other MR methods gave similar results. Conclusions In contrast to previous observational evidence, BP does not appear to be a risk factor for cancer, although an effect on melanoma and kidney cancer cannot be excluded. Other targets for cancer prevention might be more relevant.

Background and Purpose: Experimental studies showed vitamin D (Vit-D) could promote vascular regeneration and repair. Prior randomized studies had focused mainly on primary prevention. Whether Vit-D protects against ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction recurrence among subjects with prior ischemic insults was unknown. Here, we dissected through Mendelian randomization any effect of Vit-D on the secondary prevention of recurrent ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction. Methods: Based on a genetic risk score for Vit-D constructed from a derivation cohort sample (n=5331, 45% Vit-D deficient, 89% genotyped) via high-throughput exome-chip screening of 12 prior genome-wide association study–identified genetic variants of Vit-D mechanistic pathways ( rs2060793 , rs4588 , and rs7041 ; F statistic, 73; P Results: In the ischemic disease subsample, 11.1% (n=49/441) had developed recurrent ischemic stroke or MI and 13.3% (n=58/441) had developed recurrent or de novo ischemic stroke/MI. Kaplan-Meier analyses showed that genetic risk score predicted improved event-free survival from recurrent ischemic stroke or MI (log-rank, 13.0; P =0.001). Cox regression revealed that genetic risk score independently predicted reduced risk of recurrent ischemic stroke or MI combined (hazards ratio, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.48–0.81]; P Conclusions: Genetically predicted lowering in Vit-D level is causal for the recurrence of ischemic vascular events in persons with prior ischemic stroke or MI.

Background: Basal metabolic rate is associated with cancer, but these observations are open to confounding. Limited evidence from Mendelian randomization studies exists, with inconclusive results. Moreover, whether basal metabolic rate has a similar role in cancer for men and women independent of insulin-like growth factor 1 increasing cancer risk has not been investigated.Methods: We conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization study using summary data from the UK Biobank to estimate the causal effect of basal metabolic rate on cancer. Overall and sex-specific analysis and multiple sensitivity analyses were performed including multivariable Mendelian randomization to control for insulin-like growth factor 1.Results: We obtained 782 genetic variants strongly (p-value < 5 × 10–8) and independently (r2 < 0.01) predicting basal metabolic rate. Genetically predicted higher basal metabolic rate was associated with an increase in cancer risk overall (odds ratio, 1.06; 95% confidence interval, 1.02–1.10) with similar estimates by sex (odds ratio for men, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 1.002–1.14; odds ratio for women, 1.06; 95% confidence interval, 0.995–1.12). Sensitivity analyses including adjustment for insulin-like growth factor 1 showed directionally consistent results.Conclusion: Higher basal metabolic rate might increase cancer risk. Basal metabolic rate as a potential modifiable target of cancer prevention warrants further study.

Cell culture and animal studies suggest puerarin could prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, trials in human are scare, not primarily designed for prevention, and inadequately powered. We assessed the effect of puerarin supplementation on CVD risk factors in men using a crossover trial.In total, 217 Chinese men aged 18-50 years without a history of CVD were recruited. They were randomized to take a puerarin supplement (90.2 mg daily) or a placebo, followed by a 4-week wash-out period, and then crossed over to the other intervention. An intention-to-treat analysis was used. Differences in primary outcomes (lipid profile such as low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol) and secondary outcomes (other CVD risk factors such as blood pressure and fasting glucose, and some potential mediating pathways such as testosterone) between supplementation and placebo within participants were compared using a paired t-test, or a crossover (CROS)-based analysis where a period effect existed.Lipid profile was similar after the puerarin supplementation or placebo (e.g., mean difference in LDL cholesterol: -0.02 mmol/L, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.09 to -0.06). Conversely, fasting glucose was reduced after the puerarin supplementation (-0.13 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.25 to -0.008). There were no differences in blood pressure, testosterone, high-sensitive C-reactive protein, prothrombin time, liver or renal function.In young-to-middle-aged Chinese men, short-term puerarin supplementation did not improve the primary outcome of lipid profile, but an exploratory analysis suggested that puerarin could be beneficial for one of the secondary outcomes, i.e., fasting glucose.

Smoking increases the risk of severe COVID-19, but whether lung function or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mediate the underlying associations is unclear. We conducted the largest Mendelian randomization study to date, to our knowledge, to address these questions.Mendelian randomization study using summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), FinnGen and UK Biobank. The main analysis was the inverse variance weighted method, and we included a range of sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the findings.GWAS which included international consortia, FinnGen and UK Biobank.The sample size ranged from 193 638 to 2 586 691.Genetic determinants of life-time smoking index, lung function [e.g. forced expiratory volume in 1 sec (FEVSmoking increased the risk of COVID-19 compared with population controls for overall COVID-19 [odds ratio (OR) = 1.19 per standard deviation (SD) of life-time smoking index, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.11-1.27], hospitalized COVID-19 (OR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.42-1.97) or severe COVID-19 (OR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.10-1.98), with directionally consistent effects from sensitivity analyses. Lung function and COPD liability did not appear to mediate these associations.There is genetic evidence that smoking probably increases the risk of severe COVID-19 and possibly also milder forms of COVID-19. Decreased lung function and increased risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease do not seem to mediate the effect of smoking on COVID-19 risk.

BACKGROUND: No screening program is recommended for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in adults based on current clinical practice guidelines. Risk prediction models for COPD developed in Western settings may not be directly applicable to older Chinese adults. To evaluate the performance of an existing risk prediction model for COPD developed in a Western setting in Chinese adults and investigate whether a new risk prediction model performs better in predicting 5-year risk of COPD (EHS-COPD). METHODS: This study is based on 135,822 participants aged 65+ years from Hong Kong’s Elderly Health Service (EHS) cohort. We assessed the performance of an existing risk prediction model in the entire cohort, and in a random sub-sample of 91,133 participants, we recalibrated the existing model and derived a new model using extended Cox proportional hazards regression. Candidate risk predictors from the literature and the EHS cohort were considered for inclusion. Risk prediction performance, discrimination, and calibration of the newly derived models were assessed in the remaining 44,689 participants. RESULTS: The existing risk prediction model overestimated the 5-year risk of COPD in older Chinese adults (65+ years); after recalibration, it still overestimated the 5-year risk of COPD for both men and women. The new EHS-COPD risk prediction model, including time-varying factors (i.e., age and smoking status) and time-invariant factors (i.e., education level, public assistance, alcohol use, body mass index, physical activity, existing hypertension, recent falls, cognitive function, and self-rated health status), had an improved performance. For men, EHS-COPD explained 19.5% of COPD risk, the D statistic was 23.1, and Harrell’s C statistic was 0.93. The corresponding values for women were 8.5%, 21.1, and 0.93. CONCLUSIONS: The existing COPD risk prediction model overpredicted COPD risk in older Chinese and could not be recalibrated to predict well. A revised prediction model using time-invariant and time-varying factors provides a better tool for identifying older Chinese adults at high risk of developing COPD.

The associations between absolute vs. relative income at the household or neighborhood level and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk remain understudied in the Chinese context. Further, it is unclear whether stress biomarkers, such as cortisol, are on the pathway from income to CVD risk. We examined the associations of absolute and relative income with CVD risk observationally, as well as the mediating role of cortisol, and validated the role of cortisol using Mendelian Randomization (MR) in Hong Kong Chinese. Within Hong Kong's FAMILY Cohort, associations of absolute and relative income at both the individual and neighborhood levels with CVD risk [body mass index (BMI), body fat percentage, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, self-reported CVD and self-reported diabetes] were examined using multilevel logistic or linear models (n = 17,607), the mediating role of cortisol using the mediation analysis (n = 1,562), and associations of genetically predicted cortisol with CVD risk using the multiplicative generalized method of moments (MGMMs) or two-stage least squares regression (n = 1,562). In our cross-sectional observational analysis, relative household income deprivation (per 1 SD, equivalent to USD 128 difference in Yitzhaki index) was associated with higher systolic blood pressure (0.47 mmHg, 95% CI 0.30–0.64), but lower BMI (−0.07 kg/m2, 95% CI −0.11 to −0.04), independent of absolute income. Neighborhood income inequality was generally unrelated to CVD and its risk factors, nor was absolute income at the household or neighborhood level. Cortisol did not clearly mediate the association of relative household income deprivation with systolic blood pressure. Using MR, cortisol was unrelated to CVD risk. Based on our findings, relative household income deprivation was not consistently associated with cardiovascular health in Hong Kong Chinese, nor were neighborhood income inequality and absolute income, highlighting the context-specific ways in which relative and absolute income are linked to CVD risk.

Background Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) allows the use of freely accessible summary association results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to estimate causal effects of modifiable exposures on outcomes. Some GWAS adjust for heritable covariables in an attempt to estimate direct effects of genetic variants on the trait of interest. One, both or neither of the exposure GWAS and outcome GWAS may have been adjusted for covariables. Methods We performed a simulation study comprising different scenarios that could motivate covariable adjustment in a GWAS and analysed real data to assess the influence of using covariable-adjusted summary association results in two-sample MR. Results In the absence of residual confounding between exposure and covariable, between exposure and outcome, and between covariable and outcome, using covariable-adjusted summary associations for two-sample MR eliminated bias due to horizontal pleiotropy. However, covariable adjustment led to bias in the presence of residual confounding (especially between the covariable and the outcome), even in the absence of horizontal pleiotropy (when the genetic variants would be valid instruments without covariable adjustment). In an analysis using real data from the Genetic Investigation of ANthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium and UK Biobank, the causal effect estimate of waist circumference on blood pressure changed direction upon adjustment of waist circumference for body mass index. Conclusions Our findings indicate that using covariable-adjusted summary associations in MR should generally be avoided. When that is not possible, careful consideration of the causal relationships underlying the data (including potentially unmeasured confounders) is required to direct sensitivity analyses and interpret results with appropriate caution.

Lead is pervasive, although lead exposure has fallen in response to public health efforts. Observationally, lead is positively associated with cardiovascular disease and hypertension. We used separate-sample instrumental variable analysis with genetic instruments (Mendelian randomization) based on 13 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP), from a genome wide association study, strongly (p-value −6) and independently associated with blood lead. These SNPs were applied to a large extensively genotyped coronary artery disease (CAD) study (cases = ABO. Exogenous lead may have different effects from endogenous lead; nevertheless, this study raises questions about the role of blood lead in CAD.

Loneliness has a strong neurobiological basis reflected by its specific relationships with structural brain connectivity. Critically, affect traits are highly related to loneliness, which shows close association with the onset and severity of major depressive disorder. This diffusion imaging study was conducted on a sample of adolescent siblings to examine whether positive and negative affect traits were related to loneliness, with brain network efficiency playing a mediating role. The findings of this study confirmed that both global and average local efficiency negatively mediated the association between low positive affect and high negative affect and loneliness, and the mediation was more sensitive to sibling-shared affect traits. The findings have important implications for interventions targeted at reducing the detrimental impact of familiar negative emotional experiences and loneliness.