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Paying ransoms to recover hostages endangers a larger population because it funds terrorist organizations’ operations. To achieve counterterrorism strategy objectives, it is crucial that states consistently adhere to the international ban on ransom payments. Analyzing the factors that influence democracies' decisions to pay or not pay ransoms provides a better understanding of the political peculiarities that shape a state's ransom payment policy over time and influence its decision-making during a hostage-taking crisis. This thesis examined twenty abduction cases involving nationals of four Western democracies (France, Spain, the United States, and the United Kingdom) that occurred between 2001 and 2015. This thesis’ findings demonstrate that public opinion and media perception of ransom payments are the most compelling factors influencing decision-makers. Also, policy legacies of paying or rejecting ransoms affected the political leaders of these four Western democracies. In addition to better preventing kidnappings, states should enact ransom payment bans through domestic laws and policy directives, which would likely constrain decision-making and alleviate public pressure. Moreover, educating the public and media about the greater risk created by ransom payments and the publicity given to kidnappings will help shape public opinion in favor of a ransom payment ban., Outstanding Thesis, Lieutenant Colonel, Algerian Air Force, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Various social media platforms have been used as tools by social movements and have propelled democratic ideals. Social media has also been used by autocratic leaders to control and repress populations. Both uses of social media have played a prominent role in Venezuela’s political discourse since 2000. However, while it is clear that social media has played a salient role in Venezuela’s politics, what remains unclear is how effective these platforms are at empowering the social movement sector versus helping authoritarian regimes. The case of Venezuela offers insights useful in this debate because it was one of the first countries in South America to experience democratic backsliding during the digital age. Therefore, this thesis originally sought to answer the following questions: How does social media help the Venezuelan authoritarian regime? How does social media help the social movement sector in Venezuela? How can we measure the impact of these tactics? Does social media help the regime or the social movement sector more? Because of the limited data available in secondary research, it is not possible to directly measure effectiveness. Nevertheless, the analysis did reveal that the regime’s and opposition’s use of social media in Venezuela has augmented their traditional strategies. Understanding which faction it helps more overall will require access to social media databases., Captain, United States Air Force, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

As competition between the U.S. and China intensifies, the U.S. Navy must plan and implement its overseas operations and diplomatic activities to advance U.S. influence. The main purpose of this study is to assess how the USN can leverage its operations and activities to reinforce U.S. economic programs and enhance U.S. influence. Building on an innovative influence framework developed by two of the investigators, it will systematically assess how USN activities and operations such as joint exercises, port calls, humanitarian assistance and disaster response, and training programs, generate influence in three important U.S. partner nations with significant Chinese investment and/or security presence: Chile, Senegal, and the United Arab Emirates. The project will also identify specific ways that USN activities can reinforce USG economic programs and build effective partnerships, specifying the most productive activity groupings, effective sequencing arrangements, and potential obstacles to interagency coordination. The project will produce a final report, as well as briefings to the sponsor and other interested audiences in the Navy. The report will consist of three country case studies and a comparative analysis of their findings. The precise organization and format of the deliverables will be designed to suit the needs of the topic sponsor. Interim reports will be provided to keep the sponsor apprised of our progress and to solicit feedback during the course of study.

Reissued 25 Apr 2022 with text correction to page 41., Since the inception of the U.S. War on Drugs in the 1970s, the United States has faced the challenge of balancing the interests of justice and diplomacy when dealing with Latin American government officials corrupted by the illicit drug trade. This thesis identifies, categorizes, and assesses examples of U.S. responses to this challenge into a range of options that the United States can take to pursue prosecution against wanted Latin American officials. These options, which range from the least forceful option of foreign prosecution to the most forceful option of using military intervention, each contain different tradeoffs between the reward of prosecuting a high-level actor and the risk of damaging bilateral cooperation. This thesis finds that the United States commonly conducts and should continue to conduct “arrests of opportunity,” which refers to when U.S. law enforcement officials arrest wanted Latin American officials after they enter a U.S. jurisdiction, because it balances legal pragmatism with respecting foreign sovereignty. Additionally, the United States also has an option to “turn a blind eye,” or take no prosecutorial option at all, but this option is a decision best made behind closed doors with serious consideration given to potential political consequences., Captain, United States Air Force, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The 2016 peace accords between the Colombian state and the FARC created great expectations of peace across the region. However, four years later, Colombia is experiencing a growing wave of violence from numerous actors, including former FARC dissidents. What drove the emergence of splinter groups after the 2016 peace accords? This thesis argues that insurgents’ levels of cohesiveness and ideological commitment during negotiations significantly condition the long-term prospects for successful accord implementation. When insurgencies enter these processes with low levels of these two factors, peace accords tend to transform, rather than end, the conflict. The thesis examines this argument through an analysis of the FARC’s organizational and ideological properties throughout history and finds that while the FARC had traditionally been a cohesive organization, during the 2000s the COIN strategy and Plan Colombia weakened its organizational structure. Furthermore, its incorporation in the drug trade contributed to the dilution of its ideological commitment. When accords were signed, the FARC lacked the necessary levels of cohesiveness and commitment to implement and enforce the accords in their ranks, causing the emergence of splinter groups. This thesis recommends that in an eventual negotiation with insurgencies, governments must give careful consideration to both the organizational and ideological properties of such organizations to avoid splintering and recurrence of violence., http://archive.org/details/howhasthecolombi1094566733, Lieutenant Colonel, National Army of Colombia, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

This thesis examines the port visits of two U.S. naval deployments to Latin America (USS AMERICA [LHA 6] in 2014 and the USS GUNSTON HALL [LSD 44] in 2018) to find what strategic effects the United States is achieving through this aspect of naval diplomacy. Using an original framework, the study compares primary Latin American news sources to U.S. press releases that cover the visits to identify influence and relates those findings to bilateral relationships, theater objectives, and routine operational activities. Overall, the United States is attaining positive diplomatic influence through the use of port calls; however, there is room for improvement and the Navy’s approach can be optimized to better achieve effects in support of strategic regional objectives. Particularly, matching U.S. actions and events in-port to overall U.S. security policies and enlisting the support of the relevant U.S. embassies can increase the opportunities and likelihood of success in acquiring influence. Attaining U.S. soft power through naval diplomacy in Latin America will only continue to grow in importance with the return to great power competition and the need to counter the encroachment of Chinese influence throughout the region., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Globally, only 23 countries recognize women as indispensable support in combat positions. American and Norwegian women are effectively utilized in Female Engagement Teams, and Israeli women are known to enhance combat effectiveness in infantry units. Nevertheless, gender gaps in equality still remain, particularly in Latin American militaries. In this thesis, Norway, Israel, and the United States illustrate the differing approaches and successes of female integration into combat positions. It seeks to identify what measures could be applied to Latin American militaries desiring added diversity. Evidence indicates that distinct cultural norms have either effectively assisted or impeded the advancement of women’s employment into combat specialties. In Norway and Israel, the inclusion of women in the armed forces was dependent on affirmative legislative action toward gender equality. The United States demonstrated a lack of leadership support that hindered women’s integration. In all cases, cultural norms featuring hegemonic masculinities impeded female participation in primary combat positions. Women in Latin America—a region with a similar cultural misogyny—will likely face the same types of obstacles to service in combat roles. By emulating Norway’s framework, Latin American states would have the ability to force cultural change that potentially closes gender gaps and empowers the region’s governments to improve the conditions of women wishing to serve in combat specialties., Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

The CIA's initial regime change operations between 1953 to 1961 were marred by intelligence leaks and lacked critical mission assessments. In addition, perceptions held by top-level decision makers were so distorted that unsupported claims of communist infiltration were made in order to support the decision to proceed with an operation. Three operations were conducted in the span of eight years with nearly indistinguishable similarity, and the third operation resulted in failure. It was only after that failure that investigations revealed the extent of the problem. After examining these three cases, this thesis concludes that the accrual of misperceptions with regard to intelligence and unexamined mission tactics led to the failure at the Bay of Pigs., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

The Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance, also known as the Rio Treaty, is one of the Organization of American States’ (OAS) founding agreements. The treaty includes language that provides for collective hemispheric defense, and it has been invoked on multiple occasions. However, Rio Treaty invocations have consistently struggled to generate salient multilateral security cooperation. This thesis hypothesizes, and finds, that the Rio Treaty has been unsuccessful at producing meaningful security cooperation because of repeated misuse by its signatories. To prove the hypothesis, this thesis examines OAS involvement in two regional crises, the 1965 Dominican Civil War and the Falklands/Malvinas War, in search of common themes. In both cases, a treaty signatory executed a fait accompli and then turned to the OAS in need of international legitimacy rather than strategic need. During the Dominican Civil War, the Rio Treaty was not invoked when it likely should have been. As a result, the Inter-American Peace Force (IAPF), which the OAS dispatched in response to the crisis, would remain forever unformalized. Argentina misused the Rio Treaty by invoking it after it had to face the military consequences of a conflict that it instigated with Great Britain. The vastly different OAS response to each case can be explained by vested U.S. interest in each conflict., http://archive.org/details/tepidpartnersthe1094567158, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Various social media platforms have been used as tools by social movements and have propelled democratic ideals. Social media has also been used by autocratic leaders to control and repress populations. Both uses of social media have played a prominent role in Venezuela’s political discourse since 2000. However, while it is clear that social media has played a salient role in Venezuela’s politics, what remains unclear is how effective these platforms are at empowering the social movement sector versus helping authoritarian regimes. The case of Venezuela offers insights useful in this debate because it was one of the first countries in South America to experience democratic backsliding during the digital age. Therefore, this thesis originally sought to answer the following questions: How does social media help the Venezuelan authoritarian regime? How does social media help the social movement sector in Venezuela? How can we measure the impact of these tactics? Does social media help the regime or the social movement sector more? Because of the limited data available in secondary research, it is not possible to directly measure effectiveness. Nevertheless, the analysis did reveal that the regime’s and opposition’s use of social media in Venezuela has augmented their traditional strategies. Understanding which faction it helps more overall will require access to social media databases.

Since the inception of the U.S. War on Drugs in the 1970s, the United States has faced the challenge of balancing the interests of justice and diplomacy when dealing with Latin American government officials corrupted by the illicit drug trade. This thesis identifies, categorizes, and assesses examples of U.S. responses to this challenge into a range of options that the United States can take to pursue prosecution against wanted Latin American officials. These options, which range from the least forceful option of foreign prosecution to the most forceful option of using military intervention, each contain different tradeoffs between the reward of prosecuting a high-level actor and the risk of damaging bilateral cooperation. This thesis finds that the United States commonly conducts and should continue to conduct “arrests of opportunity,” which refers to when U.S. law enforcement officials arrest wanted Latin American officials after they enter a U.S. jurisdiction, because it balances legal pragmatism with respecting foreign sovereignty. Additionally, the United States also has an option to “turn a blind eye,” or take no prosecutorial option at all, but this option is a decision best made behind closed doors with serious consideration given to potential political consequences.

How should political scientists navigate the ethical and methodological quandaries associated with analyzing leaked classified documents and other nonconsensually acquired sources? Massive unauthorized disclosures may excite qualitative scholars with policy revelations and quantitative researchers with big-data suitability, but they are fraught with dilemmas that the discipline has yet to resolve. This paper critiques underspecified research designs and opaque references in the proliferation of scholarship with leaked materials, as well as incomplete and inconsistent guidance from leading journals. It identifies provenance as the primary concept for improved standards and reviews other disciplines' approaches to this problem. It elaborates eight normative and evidentiary criteria for scholars by which to assess source legitimacy and four recommendations for balancing their trade-offs. Fundamentally, it contends that scholars need deeper reflection on source provenance and its consequences, more humility about whether to access new materials and what inferences to draw, and more transparency in citation and research strategies.

The European Union was established in order to create a more peaceful European continent through economic and social integration. To date, the EU has been successful; however, new challenges have begun to emerge. In particular, have the EU’s economic policies and German immigration procedures influenced the rise of populism in Germany, as represented by the populist group Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)? This question is answered by evaluating EU economic performance and mobility factors, as well as recent immigration trends in relation to the AfD’s formation and growing popularity. Furthermore, it appears that economic shortcomings and a declining workforce have created a demand for labor in Germany that has not been met by internal EU factors. As a result, over the past several years the German government has attempted to source its labor demand from outside the EU, namely through immigration from the Middle East and North Africa. However, many of the economic advantages often associated with immigration have yet to materialize. Over this same period, the AfD has experienced a significant increase of support within Germany. What is more, analysis indicates that the AfD’s recent success is potentially related to challenges associated with EU economic performance and immigration. Although the AfD’s recent success is troubling, the party likely does not pose near-term threat to the EU, unless the EU or global economy experiences another severe economic downturn., http://archive.org/details/theeconomicsofdi1094564856, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis explores specific conditions that may indicate a change in military-security relations between Brazil and the United States. Those conditions include Brazil's economic growth, both countries' leadership decisions on foreign policy, and Brazil's involvement in international security institutions. While one condition alone may not lead toward a definitive sign indicating future change of military-security relations, a great deal of these conditions collectively appear to show a framework of how to best forecast a potential change in military-security relations. Using these conditions, as researched between the United States and Brazil, as an initial focus with other emerging countries will enable policymakers to perhaps have a more effective way to develop greater military-security relations in order to facilitate greater cohesion and efforts to achieve global security.

This thesis seeks to determine the cause of the different economic outcomes in Ecuador and Bolivia after the drop in hydrocarbon prices in 2014. Why was Bolivia, under the administration of Evo Morales, seemingly able to escape the resource curse in recent years, while under Correa, Ecuador’s economy collapsed when confronted with a bust in commodity prices? Using five characteristics of the resource curse from existing literature, this thesis examines the policies of Correa and Morales to determine whether the leaders avoided the pitfalls of resource wealth while attempting to achieve sustained socioeconomic growth in their respective countries. This thesis hypothesizes that the Correa administration’s heavy use of Chinese loans exacerbated the resource curse in Ecuador, while the Morales administration executed conservative macroeconomic policies to partially mitigate the resource curse in Bolivia.

For the last 30 years, the Department of Defense (DoD) has been asked in various ways to measure the effectiveness of the DoD counterdrug mission. In this thesis, I advance the idea of using the drug purity data as the best and only stand-alone metric to determine if drug interdiction efforts are reducing the amount of illicit drugs available in the United States. I also present a cost-benefit equation the DoD can utilize to determine the cost effectiveness of the counterdrug mission. The intangible benefits and unintended consequences of the DoD counterdrug mission are relayed and include developing partner nation relations and building partner capacity, positive and negative impacts on military readiness, and promoting the incorrect idea that the military can and should be used to solve any national problem. I conclude that the DoD cannot measure the outcomes of the counterdrug mission; however, it can combine counterdrug mission data already collected with key performance indicators inside of a pattern and trend methodology to better correlate the DoD counterdrug mission and supply-side outcome goals., http://archive.org/details/departmentofdefe1094564072, Major, United States Air Force, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis seeks to determine the cause of the different economic outcomes in Ecuador and Bolivia after the drop in hydrocarbon prices in 2014. Why was Bolivia, under the administration of Evo Morales, seemingly able to escape the resource curse in recent years, while under Correa, Ecuador’s economy collapsed when confronted with a bust in commodity prices? Using five characteristics of the resource curse from existing literature, this thesis examines the policies of Correa and Morales to determine whether the leaders avoided the pitfalls of resource wealth while attempting to achieve sustained socioeconomic growth in their respective countries. This thesis hypothesizes that the Correa administration’s heavy use of Chinese loans exacerbated the resource curse in Ecuador, while the Morales administration executed conservative macroeconomic policies to partially mitigate the resource curse in Bolivia., Major, United States Air Force, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

This thesis explores specific conditions that may indicate a change in military-security relations between Brazil and the United States. Those conditions include Brazil's economic growth, both countries' leadership decisions on foreign policy, and Brazil's involvement in international security institutions. While one condition alone may not lead toward a definitive sign indicating future change of military-security relations, a great deal of these conditions collectively appear to show a framework of how to best forecast a potential change in military-security relations. Using these conditions, as researched between the United States and Brazil, as an initial focus with other emerging countries will enable policymakers to perhaps have a more effective way to develop greater military-security relations in order to facilitate greater cohesion and efforts to achieve global security., http://archive.org/details/agreaterperspect1094564879, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Operating under the assumption that proportional representation (PR) systems strengthen rather than undermine democracies, scholars have largely ignored the question of how this particular system interacts with presidentialism to shape stability outcomes. This thesis challenges that understanding. It argues that presidentialism, in interaction with PR for legislative elections, reduces coalition-formation incentives and makes inter-branch conflict in Latin American democracies more likely. Through a cross-regional comparative analysis and case studies on the Chilean and Venezuelan democratic experiences, this thesis shows that presidential systems experience higher levels of conflict when not subject to the systematic coalition incentives regularly produced by parliamentary or plurality-presidential systems. It also indicates that institutional factors can shape governing coalitions, independent of traditional political divides. Without electoral incentives to coalesce policy visions before elections or institutional mechanisms to ensure the formation of a majority coalition after the election, PR-presidential systems often create a multiparty result that is especially prone to inter-branch conflict and political crisis., Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

This thesis approaches the study of identity politics in Latin America through the two cases of Guatemala and Bolivia. Both countries have similar histories of racism, indigenous demographic majorities, indigenous mobilization, democratization moments, and institutions, and yet the 1999 Guatemalan referendum failed where the 2009 Bolivian referendum succeeded at delivering indigenous rights. Why? This thesis seeks to understand Latin America's indigenous movements and identity politics with implications for conflict resolution or management, combating inequality, and expanding notions of democratic governance. The leading explanations for indigenous movements and politics in Latin America tend to revolve around institutions, social movements, and party systems. However, by examining national histories, contemporary news sources, relevant scholarship, and original materials from relevant political actors, this study proposes another explanation. It stipulates that the success of an indigenous movement in constitutionalizing its demands rests upon the unification of the movement, its programmatic appeal, and its ability to form coalitions with meaningful political allies, thus explaining the disparities in the Guatemalan and Bolivian movements. The Pan-Mayan movement did not meet the preponderance of criteria whereas Bolivia’s indigenous movement did, highlighting the importance of unity and broad appeal in diversifying the region’s politics., Major, United States Air Force, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

The European Union was established in order to create a more peaceful European continent through economic and social integration. To date, the EU has been successful; however, new challenges have begun to emerge. In particular, have the EU’s economic policies and German immigration procedures influenced the rise of populism in Germany, as represented by the populist group Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)? This question is answered by evaluating EU economic performance and mobility factors, as well as recent immigration trends in relation to the AfD’s formation and growing popularity. Furthermore, it appears that economic shortcomings and a declining workforce have created a demand for labor in Germany that has not been met by internal EU factors. As a result, over the past several years the German government has attempted to source its labor demand from outside the EU, namely through immigration from the Middle East and North Africa. However, many of the economic advantages often associated with immigration have yet to materialize. Over this same period, the AfD has experienced a significant increase of support within Germany. What is more, analysis indicates that the AfD’s recent success is potentially related to challenges associated with EU economic performance and immigration. Although the AfD’s recent success is troubling, the party likely does not pose near-term threat to the EU, unless the EU or global economy experiences another severe economic downturn.

Over the last decade there has been significant focus, particularly in national security circles, on the rise of China and its expansion in regions such as Latin America, Africa, and Asia. While it is relatively easy to identify literature examining China's rationale for expanding into Latin America, there is notably less that focuses on the reasons why Latin American countries let China in. This thesis seeks to understand why Latin American countries choose to economically cooperate with China through the form of accepting loans. By centering the agency of the countries receiving loans, this thesis identifies the economic and political decisions and institutions that have made Latin American countries potential partners for an emerging China. Overall, pre-existing commodity-based economic relationships and the presence of a centrist or left-wing government were the two factors most linked with accepting loans from China.

The 2016 peace accords between the Colombian state and the FARC created great expectations of peace across the region. However, four years later, Colombia is experiencing a growing wave of violence from numerous actors, including former FARC dissidents. What drove the emergence of splinter groups after the 2016 peace accords? This thesis argues that insurgents’ levels of cohesiveness and ideological commitment during negotiations significantly condition the long-term prospects for successful accord implementation. When insurgencies enter these processes with low levels of these two factors, peace accords tend to transform, rather than end, the conflict. The thesis examines this argument through an analysis of the FARC’s organizational and ideological properties throughout history and finds that while the FARC had traditionally been a cohesive organization, during the 2000s the COIN strategy and Plan Colombia weakened its organizational structure. Furthermore, its incorporation in the drug trade contributed to the dilution of its ideological commitment. When accords were signed, the FARC lacked the necessary levels of cohesiveness and commitment to implement and enforce the accords in their ranks, causing the emergence of splinter groups. This thesis recommends that in an eventual negotiation with insurgencies, governments must give careful consideration to both the organizational and ideological properties of such organizations to avoid splintering and recurrence of violence.

Military innovation studies have largely relied on monocausal accounts—rationalism, institutionalism, or culture—to explain technologically innovative and adaptive outcomes in defense organizations. None of these perspectives alone provided a compelling explanation for the adoption outcomes of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the U.S. military from 1991 to 2015. Two questions motivated this research: Why, despite abundant material resources, mature technology, and operational need, are the most-capable UAVs not in the inventory across the services? What accounts for variations and patterns in UAV innovation adoption? The study selected ten UAV program episodes from the Air Force and Navy, categorized as high-, medium-, and low-end cases, for within-case and cross-case analysis. Primary and secondary sources, plus interviews, enabled process tracing across episodes. The results showed a pattern of adoption or rejection based on a logic-of-utility effectiveness and consistent resource availability: a military problem to solve, and a capability gap in threats or tasks and consistent monetary capacity; furthermore, ideational factors strengthened or weakened adoption. In conclusion, the study undermines single-perspective arguments as sole determinants of innovation, reveals that military culture is not monolithic in determining outcomes, and demonstrates that civil-military relationships no longer operate where civilian leaders hold inordinate sway over military institutions.

Within the last decade, Russia and China have greatly expanded their presence in Latin America—often in ways deemed threatening to U.S. national interests. Partly echoing the first half of the Cold War, the U.S. aims to maintain influence in the region while these states seek to counter any advances. At the same time, the current administration has proposed major cuts to the foreign aid budget. Many experts worry that large cuts could diminish U.S. influence and harm bilateral partnerships. Accordingly, the two case studies contained in this thesis assessed the impact of U.S. bilateral aid on influence in LATAM during the 1950s and 1960s. They both relied on primary U.S. sources (e.g., embassy reporting, congressional hearings, and now-declassified documents), as well as LATAM officials' statements. The research found that bilateral U.S. aid is an effective means to gain influence in the region when it (1) meets needs of recipients, (2) is cooperative and encourages interaction between U.S. personnel and Latin Americans, (3) is somewhat altruistic, and (4) respects recipients' autonomy. Conversely, aid damages influence when these conditions are reversed. Other tools of U.S. foreign policy, as well as many other factors, also contributed to shifts in influence. These are briefly addressed in each chapter to highlight the complexity and fleeting nature of U.S. influence overall., http://archive.org/details/aidandinfluencet1094564900, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Can public diplomacy help resolve protracted international conflicts? Both rationalist and constructivist traditions identify significant domestic obstacles to international peacemaking. However, Robert Putnam’s concept of “reverberation” implies that diplomats can expand their adversaries’ win-sets for cooperation by engaging foreign publics. This paper analyzes a most-likely case, with archival evidence: Argentine Ambassador Oscar Camilión’s unsuccessful quest for Argentine-Brazilian rapprochement in 1976–77. Although the two countries later overcame rivalry, public diplomacy contributed negligibly to this success: internal Argentine divisions created mixed messages toward Brazil, Brazilian leaders launched a competing public relations operation, and these two currents obstructed and nearly terminated Camilión’s mission. This case illuminates the paradoxes of Argentine foreign policymaking under military rule and offers a cautionary tale for scholars and practitioners of public diplomacy and conflict resolution.

Within the last decade, Russia and China have greatly expanded their presence in Latin America—often in ways deemed threatening to U.S. national interests. Partly echoing the first half of the Cold War, the U.S. aims to maintain influence in the region while these states seek to counter any advances. At the same time, the current administration has proposed major cuts to the foreign aid budget. Many experts worry that large cuts could diminish U.S. influence and harm bilateral partnerships. Accordingly, the two case studies contained in this thesis assessed the impact of U.S. bilateral aid on influence in LATAM during the 1950s and 1960s. They both relied on primary U.S. sources (e.g., embassy reporting, congressional hearings, and now-declassified documents), as well as LATAM officials' statements. The research found that bilateral U.S. aid is an effective means to gain influence in the region when it (1) meets needs of recipients, (2) is cooperative and encourages interaction between U.S. personnel and Latin Americans, (3) is somewhat altruistic, and (4) respects recipients' autonomy. Conversely, aid damages influence when these conditions are reversed. Other tools of U.S. foreign policy, as well as many other factors, also contributed to shifts in influence. These are briefly addressed in each chapter to highlight the complexity and fleeting nature of U.S. influence overall.

The United States and Cuba have long had a contentious relationship. Following Fidel Castro’s revolution, the antagonism was bolstered by the Soviet Union’s support for Cuba. After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, it was predicted by some that the end of Castro’s regime was near and the United States would be there to help with democratization of Cuba. Instead, Castro has managed to stay in power and the U.S. and Cuba have failed to achieve rapprochement. This thesis analyzes the Balsero rafter crisis of 1994, the use of Guantanamo Bay (and subsequent controversy) as a detention center for enemy combatants from the Afghanistan conflict, Obama’s normalization of diplomatic relations with Cuba, and finally the enactment of the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act (LIBERTAD), otherwise known as Helms-Burton. In doing so, the aim is to determine whether culture, structure, or the actions of individual leaders factored more predominately into the outcome of the four events., http://archive.org/details/uscubarelationsa1094562785, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

What are the conditions and factors affecting intrastate conflict recurrence? This thesis tests the effect of the type of conflict outcome, the use of peacekeeping forces, and the presence of lootable resources on the recurrence of intrastate conflict. Using the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) datasets, this thesis performs a linear regression analysis for internal conflicts from 1946 to 2014. Results confirm that the risk of conflict recurrence reduces over time. Peace agreements show a lower likelihood of conflict recurrence than military victories. The thesis finds ambiguous results for lootable and non-lootable resources. Lootable diamonds, opium/poppy, and petroleum correlate with more conflict recurrence, whereas non-lootable diamonds correlates with less recurrence. Coca, cannabis, and opium/poppy production yielded ambiguous results. The presence of peacekeeping forces does not demonstrate a statistically significant effect on conflict recurrence. Analyzing the conflict in Colombia, this work finds that illicit drugs and onshore oil production have led to conflict recurrence. The study also shows that peace agreements have helped Colombia avoid conflict recurrence. Overall, the study shows some dynamics of conflict recurrence and provides new venues for future research., http://archive.org/details/intrastateconfli1094561236, Colonel, Air Force, Colombia, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The Saudi–Iranian rivalry forms one of the most important components of the security dynamics of the Middle East. The rivalry has intensified with each country toiling to undermine the other. This dynamic directly affects the prevailing fragile security situation of the Middle East. Although their competition appears to be an ideological one, geo-political motives primarily drive this rivalry. Both countries use religion as an instrument to influence populations across the region. Saudi Arabia and Iran have not directly confronted each other except to exchange hatred rhetoric. Both countries, however, are effectively utilizing the prevailing unrest and instability in adjoining countries and further complementing the instability by sponsoring proxy wars. Their unending quest for influence even at the cost of other countries’ turmoil has devastating impacts for the region. It is imperative to understand the methods both countries are using to enhance their influence and undermine the other in the arena outside their own territory. Understanding the inherent motives of the Saudi-Iranian rivalry and their methods of execution can assist the international comity of nations to play a more productive role in engaging both countries for peace in the region., http://archive.org/details/thesaudiiranianr1094561358, Lieutenant Colonel, Army, Pakistan, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis explores the motivations behind Bolivia’s refusal to sell natural gas to neighboring country Chile. It focuses on the backlash surrounding the 2003 Gas Wars and the non-cooperation that followed. Specifically, it analyzes two cases—in the 2000s and 1950s—when Bolivia successfully cooperated with Chile in the petroleum sector. While many scholars argue that rivalry has motivated Bolivia's decision to avoid cooperating with Chile, this thesis challenges that position. This thesis hypothesizes that three factors, when all present, contribute to Bolivia’s decision not to cooperate with Chile in the natural gas sector. The first factor that influences this decision is disillusionment with the governing administration’s economic policy. This disillusionment leads to both the administration losing credibility and the populace approaching its policy with distrust. If this factor is present, it creates the opportunity for oppositional political elites to leverage the other two factors, resource nationalism and rivalry with Chile—Bolivia’s most politically charged and compelling narratives—to fully impede cooperation. This thesis tests this theory on both case studies., http://archive.org/details/doesrivalryalone1094561372, Captain, United States Air Force, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Mired in turmoil, the current state of Venezuelan politics is rife with political corruption and abuses of power. This thesis uses resource curse theory and governance datasets to analytically study changes in Venezuela over time to identify how the 2014 petroleum market crash affected the instances of political corruption. The argument shows that, when petroleum rents plummeted, financial and political incentives caused the focus of the Venezuelan government’s corruption behaviors to change from controlling the economy’s profits to regime survival. The governance data used reveals that in the period surrounding the 2014 petroleum market price decline, incentives behind political corruption shifted from cashing in on oil profits to consolidating political power, which affected the types of corruption actions used by government officials. The findings in this thesis demonstrate that governments without institutional constraints are likely to use different kinds of politically corrupt activities to stay in power during periods of decreased petroleum rent than they do when experiencing windfall incomes. The lack of institutional constraint in Venezuela caused by the willful abuse of power, as well as insufficient government capacity, signals that hurried efforts to rebuild Venezuela must emphasize the quality of governance and the policing of corruption before focusing on repairing the economy., http://archive.org/details/theeffectofdecli1094562257, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The factors that fuel the success or failure of insurgencies are an important and debated topic in national security circles. This work examines the cases of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) in Colombia, an insurgency failure, and the Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN) in Nicaragua, an insurgency success, to determine why certain Latin American insurgencies succeed while others fail. Common theories, particularly in Latin America, attribute successful insurgencies to U.S. intervention on behalf of the host nation government, or focus on structural and material factors or regime type. Though these factors play a role, insurgent success in Latin America relies more heavily on the insurgency’s ability to cultivate a broad-based coalition of support both externally and domestically, coupled with shrewd political strategy that focuses on pragmatism and compromise. By examining state strategies for dealing with insurgents and best practices for counterinsurgency, the author concludes that efforts focused on alleviating the population’s concerns through legitimate societal and political reform, coupled with attempts to undermine the insurgent’s critical base of support, are the most efficient strategies for successful counterinsurgency operations.

The United States and Cuba have long had a contentious relationship. Following Fidel Castro’s revolution, the antagonism was bolstered by the Soviet Union’s support for Cuba. After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, it was predicted by some that the end of Castro’s regime was near and the United States would be there to help with democratization of Cuba. Instead, Castro has managed to stay in power and the U.S. and Cuba have failed to achieve rapprochement. This thesis analyzes the Balsero rafter crisis of 1994, the use of Guantanamo Bay (and subsequent controversy) as a detention center for enemy combatants from the Afghanistan conflict, Obama’s normalization of diplomatic relations with Cuba, and finally the enactment of the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act (LIBERTAD), otherwise known as Helms-Burton. In doing so, the aim is to determine whether culture, structure, or the actions of individual leaders factored more predominately into the outcome of the four events.

Mired in turmoil, the current state of Venezuelan politics is rife with political corruption and abuses of power. This thesis uses resource curse theory and governance datasets to analytically study changes in Venezuela over time to identify how the 2014 petroleum market crash affected the instances of political corruption. The argument shows that, when petroleum rents plummeted, financial and political incentives caused the focus of the Venezuelan government’s corruption behaviors to change from controlling the economy’s profits to regime survival. The governance data used reveals that in the period surrounding the 2014 petroleum market price decline, incentives behind political corruption shifted from cashing in on oil profits to consolidating political power, which affected the types of corruption actions used by government officials. The findings in this thesis demonstrate that governments without institutional constraints are likely to use different kinds of politically corrupt activities to stay in power during periods of decreased petroleum rent than they do when experiencing windfall incomes. The lack of institutional constraint in Venezuela caused by the willful abuse of power, as well as insufficient government capacity, signals that hurried efforts to rebuild Venezuela must emphasize the quality of governance and the policing of corruption before focusing on repairing the economy.

The factors that fuel the success or failure of insurgencies are an important and debated topic in national security circles. This work examines the cases of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) in Colombia, an insurgency failure, and the Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN) in Nicaragua, an insurgency success, to determine why certain Latin American insurgencies succeed while others fail. Common theories, particularly in Latin America, attribute successful insurgencies to U.S. intervention on behalf of the host nation government, or focus on structural and material factors or regime type. Though these factors play a role, insurgent success in Latin America relies more heavily on the insurgency’s ability to cultivate a broad-based coalition of support both externally and domestically, coupled with shrewd political strategy that focuses on pragmatism and compromise. By examining state strategies for dealing with insurgents and best practices for counterinsurgency, the author concludes that efforts focused on alleviating the population’s concerns through legitimate societal and political reform, coupled with attempts to undermine the insurgent’s critical base of support, are the most efficient strategies for successful counterinsurgency operations., http://archive.org/details/thefarcandthefsl1094562783, Outstanding Thesis, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

With the growing discussion on great power competition between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), few studies offer a quantitative analysis of the growing influence of the PRC across the globe. We hypothesized that the various national levers employed by the PRC would be associated with more favorable foreign policies from Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries, though not to the extent that some believe. In order to measure influence, United Nations general assembly votes (specifically votes relating to human rights issues) were utilized to assess the relationship between the voting patterns of LAC countries and the voting patterns of the PRC. Our statistical analysis finds that many factors thought to be consequential have no consistent relationship to China’s geopolitical influence. However, military arms sales were found to be positively related to agreement with China’s UN votes. In contrast, recognition of Taiwan and relative trade balance were found to have negative effects. Taken as whole, the available evidence undercuts the claim that the PRC is making significant strides, or hurting America's standing, in the LAC region.

For the last 30 years, the Department of Defense (DoD) has been asked in various ways to measure the effectiveness of the DoD counterdrug mission. In this thesis, I advance the idea of using the drug purity data as the best and only stand-alone metric to determine if drug interdiction efforts are reducing the amount of illicit drugs available in the United States. I also present a cost-benefit equation the DoD can utilize to determine the cost effectiveness of the counterdrug mission. The intangible benefits and unintended consequences of the DoD counterdrug mission are relayed and include developing partner nation relations and building partner capacity, positive and negative impacts on military readiness, and promoting the incorrect idea that the military can and should be used to solve any national problem. I conclude that the DoD cannot measure the outcomes of the counterdrug mission; however, it can combine counterdrug mission data already collected with key performance indicators inside of a pattern and trend methodology to better correlate the DoD counterdrug mission and supply-side outcome goals.

This thesis analyzes the political responses of Ecuador and Bolivia to the economic crisis in Venezuela. The primary question I have sought to answer is why the Ecuadorian and Bolivian governments have realigned politically or continue to embrace Hugo Chávez’s Bolivarian policies. Ecuador and Bolivia were among many countries that elected leftist populist leaders influenced by Chávez’s success and are among the few Latin American countries that still have a leftist government. Methods used are the analysis of political reforms and legislation, and public statements of leaders. This thesis demonstrates that Ecuador has distanced itself from its institutional alliances with Venezuela as a result of an economic downturn and the emergence of corruption scandals but continues to implement leftist policies, while Bolivia is still benefiting from a natural gas boom and has done little to change course considering Venezuela’s economic demise.

This thesis analyzes the political responses of Ecuador and Bolivia to the economic crisis in Venezuela. The primary question I have sought to answer is why the Ecuadorian and Bolivian governments have realigned politically or continue to embrace Hugo Chávez’s Bolivarian policies. Ecuador and Bolivia were among many countries that elected leftist populist leaders influenced by Chávez’s success and are among the few Latin American countries that still have a leftist government. Methods used are the analysis of political reforms and legislation, and public statements of leaders. This thesis demonstrates that Ecuador has distanced itself from its institutional alliances with Venezuela as a result of an economic downturn and the emergence of corruption scandals but continues to implement leftist policies, while Bolivia is still benefiting from a natural gas boom and has done little to change course considering Venezuela’s economic demise., http://archive.org/details/ecuadorianandbol1094563499, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis asks to what extent and why Chinese engagement has influenced the Latin American economic outlook and foreign policy changes in the twenty-first century and uses Chile and Mexico as case studies. The extent of Chinese engagement is established first because it is variable by country. Economic and foreign policy changes are then examined through the lens of Chinese engagement. This research found that economic and foreign policy changes were influenced by a mixture of domestic agency and growing Chinese hegemony, with Chinese engagement and influence being commensurate with the level of economic compatibility., http://archive.org/details/theextentofchine1094561258, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The purpose of this thesis is to assess how a small nation like Costa Rica, which is committed to peace and lacks a military, is able to safeguard national security and territorial sovereignty while responding to a series of hostile external disputes with neighboring Nicaragua. It examines how Costa Rica’s actions and decisions in response to these disputes supports or impugns established tenets of international relations theory. Three case studies examine distinct periods of Costa Rican relations with Nicaragua, extending from the abolition of Costa Rica’s military in 1948 to the present-day. The findings are evaluated with respect to realist, liberal and constructivist theory. Costa Rica’s behavior best supports tenets of constructivist theory as it is undoubtedly influenced by socially constructed norms. These norms include a strong commitment to diplomatic dispute resolution, a general public perception that Nicaragua cannot be trusted and that some domestic capacity to employ force is an acceptable deviation from the nation’s commitment to diplomacy., http://archive.org/details/costaricaapeacef1094561320, Major, United States Air Force, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

American society conventionally expects immigrants to assimilate, yet contemporary views question whether Latin American immigrants are choosing to conform to this standard. However, this perspective does not account for the structural constraints placed upon immigrants through the influence of U.S. foreign and immigration policy. During the Cold War, two cases—Cuba in the 1960s and El Salvador in the 1980s—demonstrated differential U.S. policy responses to sustained, large-scale exile migrations to the United States, particularly to Miami and Los Angeles. In these cases, the U.S. response was to welcome and provide a positive reception to Cubans in Miami, while Salvadorans were excluded and constrained by the negative reception afforded to them as illegal migrants in Los Angeles, with both responses stemming from U.S. foreign policy interests in Latin America. Twenty-five years after the first wave of exiles from each of these countries, both second generations appear to be assimilating in terms of educational attainment, but Salvadoran-Americans lag behind Cuban-Americans in occupational attainment and income levels. These differential outcomes indicate that reception contexts—government responses, economic opportunity, societal attitudes, and presence of ethnic communities—may accelerate or delay exile groups’ rates of structural assimilation, with legal status playing a major role in determining whether groups assimilate upward or downward., http://archive.org/details/cubanandsalvador1094559562, Major, United States Air Force, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Over the last decade, the U.S. military and homeland security research groups have contemplated the issue of how to counter unmanned drones. Recently, border security agencies responsible for securing the U.S.–Mexico border are having to contend with the emerging threat of Mexico’s drug cartel narcotics-smuggling drones, also known as narco-drones. Narco-drones are an example of cartel innovation for smuggling, among other deviant purposes, that U.S. border security will need a strategy to counter. This study aimed to build on the conceptual framework related to hostile drones in the airspace and specifically to find a strategy that the Department of Homeland Security could pursue to manage the narco-drone problem in the border-zone airspace. The author argues that the Mexican drug cartels adopt innovative drone tactics in response to border security measures or lack thereof, as well as through organizational learning. This thesis concludes that leveraging U.S. military experience, anti-drone doctrine, and detection assets -developed for countering terrorist drones in the war zones of Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan is an effective strategy for countering narco-drones at the U.S.–Mexico border.

The international cocaine market has transformed the Caribbean Basin into the most violent region in the world. Against the onslaught of drugs and violence, interstate security cooperation and intelligence sharing are increasingly prominent features of state security strategies. The evolution of security cooperation has pushed cocaine flows from the Caribbean to Central America and the Eastern Pacific. Overtime, increasing state capacity and cooperation has shaped cocaine trafficking and cut into the profit margins of cartel organizations. This thesis examines the evolution of maritime countertrafficking networks and argues that increased cooperation in the Insular Caribbean caused narcotraffickers to shift trafficking routes to regions without multilateral security mechanisms. Using naval strengths, interdiction data, and government estimates, this thesis determined that security cooperation shaped current smuggling routes. This thesis concludes that multilateral security arrangements are more effective against transnational criminal networks than unilateral state action. It points to holes in the regional security network and calls for a unified approach to transnational criminal networks. The regional hegemon has an outsized impact on regional security and must take steps to build and maintain multilateral relationships between Mexico and Central America to effectively control smuggling in the Eastern Pacific.

In this paper, I examined U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America, primarily during the Cold War. I sought to answer the following questions: (1) What factors influenced the behavior of lower-level U.S. officials stationed in Latin America at the time? and (2) How much policy-affecting agency did these officials have? Using primary source documentation contained in the State Department’s Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS) volumes to the maximum extent possible, I examined the following case studies: Guatemala circa 1954, Costa Rica circa 1948, and lastly, present-day Bolivia. In my research and analysis, I shed light on the dynamic that existed between Washington policymakers and lower-level officials stationed in-region, mainly ambassadors. My analysis resulted in the following conclusions: (1) anti-communist Cold War hysteria clouded the judgment of lower-level officials, (2) pressure from Washington elites largely influenced the behavior of these officials, and (3) U.S. officials stationed in-region had relatively little policy-affecting agency. Ultimately, I make a case for a U.S. foreign policy apparatus that empowers lower-level officials stationed in-region. This arrangement will prove most effective in observing, analyzing, and appreciating the nuances present in foreign countries, which would result in a flexible and tailored U.S. foreign policy.

Theory attempting to explain poverty and development is vast, varied, and, in many ways, inconclusive. In this thesis, I review core literature on the Industrial Revolution and the rise of Western Europe and the Asian Tigers, finding that their economic development rested on a cycle of three fundamental principles: rule of law, access to capital, and strong, yet restrained, bureaucratic capacity. With an emphasis on Latin America, I then conduct a two-step analysis to determine the universal applicability of these factors. First, I analyze the implementation and outcomes of import substitution industrialization, finding an ambiguous correlation between this landmark set of economic policies and economic outcomes. Second, I develop a case study of Mexico that demonstrates a strong correlation between economic development and the three underpinnings of rule of law, access to capital, and strong, yet restrained, bureaucratic capacity. The thesis concludes that these three factors are universally crucial for sustained growth and development. This research also finds that the institutions that provide for these principles can take vastly different forms, and, in doing so, it joins a growing body of scholarship that emphasizes the significance of institutional function over institutional form.

What are the conditions and factors affecting intrastate conflict recurrence? This thesis tests the effect of the type of conflict outcome, the use of peacekeeping forces, and the presence of lootable resources on the recurrence of intrastate conflict. Using the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) datasets, this thesis performs a linear regression analysis for internal conflicts from 1946 to 2014. Results confirm that the risk of conflict recurrence reduces over time. Peace agreements show a lower likelihood of conflict recurrence than military victories. The thesis finds ambiguous results for lootable and non-lootable resources. Lootable diamonds, opium/poppy, and petroleum correlate with more conflict recurrence, whereas non-lootable diamonds correlates with less recurrence. Coca, cannabis, and opium/poppy production yielded ambiguous results. The presence of peacekeeping forces does not demonstrate a statistically significant effect on conflict recurrence. Analyzing the conflict in Colombia, this work finds that illicit drugs and onshore oil production have led to conflict recurrence. The study also shows that peace agreements have helped Colombia avoid conflict recurrence. Overall, the study shows some dynamics of conflict recurrence and provides new venues for future research.

States (principals) frequently employ pro-government militias (agents) in low intensity conflicts with mixed results. In some cases, principal and agent interests diverge or the principal loses control over its agent, which devolves into an autonomous terrorist, warlord, or criminal organization. Looking at historical cases of Latin American pro-government militias from Colombia (Self-Defense groups, Convivirs, and Hometown Soldiers) and Peru (Rondas Campesinas), I examined the principal-agent problem in the context of state-sponsored, pro-government militias and answered the following question: How do sponsor states succeed or fail in maintaining positive control and influence over pro-government militias? States fail when they grant too much autonomy and firepower to militias and succeed when they limit militias’ autonomy by subjecting them to a tailored combination of control mechanisms: monitoring, screening, sanctions, and rewards. Cases from Colombia and Peru demonstrate that the best way to control militias and employ them in counterinsurgency is by incorporating them as legitimate auxiliaries of the armed forces. Incorporation of a militia into the armed forces greatly reduces the principal-agent problem, the associated risk of diverging interests and objectives, and the future pain of demobilization. Arming militias with restricted use weapons, outsourcing their financing to private benefactors, and granting them too much autonomy is a recipe for disaster., http://archive.org/details/theprincipalagen1094559551, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Theory attempting to explain poverty and development is vast, varied, and, in many ways, inconclusive. In this thesis, I review core literature on the Industrial Revolution and the rise of Western Europe and the Asian Tigers, finding that their economic development rested on a cycle of three fundamental principles: rule of law, access to capital, and strong, yet restrained, bureaucratic capacity. With an emphasis on Latin America, I then conduct a two-step analysis to determine the universal applicability of these factors. First, I analyze the implementation and outcomes of import substitution industrialization, finding an ambiguous correlation between this landmark set of economic policies and economic outcomes. Second, I develop a case study of Mexico that demonstrates a strong correlation between economic development and the three underpinnings of rule of law, access to capital, and strong, yet restrained, bureaucratic capacity. The thesis concludes that these three factors are universally crucial for sustained growth and development. This research also finds that the institutions that provide for these principles can take vastly different forms, and, in doing so, it joins a growing body of scholarship that emphasizes the significance of institutional function over institutional form., http://archive.org/details/foundationsforec1094559678, Captain, United States Air Force, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.