Search

Climatic warming can shift community composition driven by the colonization-extinction dynamics of species with different thermal preferences; but simultaneously, habitat fragmentation can mediate species' responses to warming. As this potential interactive effect has proven difficult to test empirically, we collected data on birds over 10 years of climate warming in a reservoir subtropical island system that was formed 65 years ago. We investigated how the mechanisms underlying climate-driven directional change in community composition were mediated by habitat fragmentation. We found thermophilization driven by increasing warm-adapted species and decreasing cold-adapted species in terms of trends in colonization rate, extinction rate, occupancy rate and population size. Critically, colonization rates of warm-adapted species increased faster temporally on smaller or less isolated islands; cold-adapted species generally were lost more quickly temporally on closer islands. This provides support for dispersal limitation and microclimate buffering as primary proxies by which habitat fragmentation mediates species range shift. Overall, this study advances our understanding of biodiversity responses to interacting global change drivers., Competing Interests: JL, MT, QW, PR, TJ, PD, XS No competing interests declared, (© 2024, Liu et al.)

Terrestrial species can respond to a warming climate in multiple ways, including shifting in space (via latitude or elevation) and time (via phenology). Evidence for such shifts is often assessed independent of other temperature-tracking mechanisms; critically, no study has compared shifts across all three spatiotemporal dimensions. Here we used two continental-scale monitoring databases to estimate trends in the breeding latitude (311 species), elevation (251 species) and phenology (111 species) of North American landbirds over 27 years, with a shared pool of 102 species. We measured the magnitude of shifts and compared them relative to average regional warming (that is, shift ratios). Species shifted poleward (1.1 km per year, mean shift ratio 11%) and to higher elevations (1.2 m per year, mean shift ratio 17%), while also shifting their breeding phenology earlier (0.08 days per year, mean shift ratio 28%). These general trends belied substantial variation among species, with some species shifting faster than climate, whereas others shifted more slowly or in the opposite direction. Across the three dimensions (n = 102), birds cumulatively tracked temperature at 33% of current warming rates, 64% of which was driven by advances in breeding phenology as opposed to geographical shifts. A narrow focus on spatial dimensions of climate tracking may underestimate the responses of birds to climate change; phenological shifts may offer an alternative for birds-and probably other organisms-to conserve their thermal niche in a warming world., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Climate change is shifting the phenology of migratory animals earlier; yet an understanding of how climate change leads to variable shifts across populations, species and communities remains hampered by limited spatial and taxonomic sampling. In this study, we used a hierarchical Bayesian model to analyse 88,965 site-specific arrival dates from 222 bird species over 21 years to investigate the role of temperature, snowpack, precipitation, the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on the spring arrival timing of Nearctic birds. Interannual variation in bird arrival on breeding grounds was most strongly explained by temperature and snowpack, and less strongly by precipitation and climate oscillations. Sensitivity of arrival timing to climatic variation exhibited spatial nonstationarity, being highly variable within and across species. A high degree of heterogeneity in phenological sensitivity suggests diverging responses to ongoing climatic changes at the population, species and community scale, with potentially negative demographic and ecological consequences., (© 2024 The Author(s). Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

In response to biodiversity loss and biotic community homogenization in urbanized landscapes, there are increasing efforts to conserve and increase biodiversity within urban areas. Accordingly, around the world, previously extirpated species are (re)colonizing and otherwise infiltrating urban landscapes, while other species are disappearing from these landscapes. Tracking the occurrence of traditionally urban intolerant species and loss of traditionally urban tolerant species should be a management goal of urban areas, but we generally lack tools to study this phenomenon. To address this gap, we first used species' occurrences from iNaturalist, a large collaborative dataset of species observations, to calculate an urban association index (UAI) for 967 native animal species that occur in the city of Los Angeles. On average, the occurrence of native species was negatively associated with our composite measure of urban intensity, with the exception of snails and slugs, which instead occur more frequently in areas of increased urban intensity. Next, we assessed 8,348 0.25 x 0.25 mile grids across the City of Los Angeles to determine the average grid-level UAI scores (i.e., a summary of the UAIs present in a grid cell, which we term Community Urban Tolerance Index or CUTI). We found that areas of higher urban intensity host more urban tolerant species, but also that taxonomic groups differ in their aggregate tolerance of urban areas, and that spatial patterns of tolerance vary between groups. The framework established here has been designed to be iteratively reevaluated by city managers of Los Angeles in order to track the progress of initiatives to preserve and encourage urban biodiversity, but can be rescaled to sample different regions within the city or different cities altogether to provide a valuable tool for city managers globally., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Curti et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Correlative species distribution models are widely used to quantify past shifts in ranges or communities, and to predict future outcomes under ongoing global change. Practitioners confront a wide range of potentially plausible models for ecological dynamics, but most specific applications only consider a narrow set. Here, we clarify that certain model structures can embed restrictive assumptions about key sources of forecast uncertainty into an analysis. To evaluate forecast uncertainties and our ability to explain community change, we fit and compared 39 candidate multi- or joint species occupancy models to avian incidence data collected at 320 sites across California during the early 20th century and resurveyed a century later. We found massive (>20,000 LOOIC) differences in within-time information criterion across models. Poorer fitting models omitting multivariate random effects predicted less variation in species richness changes and smaller contemporary communities, with considerable variation in predicted spatial patterns in richness changes across models. The top models suggested avian environmental associations changed across time, contemporary avian occupancy was influenced by previous site-specific occupancy states, and that both latent site variables and species associations with these variables also varied over time. Collectively, our results recapitulate that simplified model assumptions not only impact predictive fit but may mask important sources of forecast uncertainty and mischaracterize the current state of system understanding when seeking to describe or project community responses to global change. We recommend that researchers seeking to make long-term forecasts prioritize characterizing forecast uncertainty over seeking to present a single best guess. To do so reliably, we urge practitioners to employ models capable of characterizing the key sources of forecast uncertainty, where predictors, parameters and random effects may vary over time or further interact with previous occurrence states., (© 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Changes in phenology in response to ongoing climate change have been observed in numerous taxa around the world. Differing rates of phenological shifts across trophic levels have led to concerns that ecological interactions may become increasingly decoupled in time, with potential negative consequences for populations. Despite widespread evidence of phenological change and a broad body of supporting theory, large-scale multitaxa evidence for demographic consequences of phenological asynchrony remains elusive. Using data from a continental-scale bird-banding program, we assess the impact of phenological dynamics on avian breeding productivity in 41 species of migratory and resident North American birds breeding in and around forested areas. We find strong evidence for a phenological optimum where breeding productivity decreases in years with both particularly early or late phenology and when breeding occurs early or late relative to local vegetation phenology. Moreover, we demonstrate that landbird breeding phenology did not keep pace with shifts in the timing of vegetation green-up over a recent 18-y period, even though avian breeding phenology has tracked green-up with greater sensitivity than arrival for migratory species. Species whose breeding phenology more closely tracked green-up tend to migrate shorter distances (or are resident over the entire year) and breed earlier in the season. These results showcase the broadest-scale evidence yet of the demographic impacts of phenological change. Future climate change-associated phenological shifts will likely result in a decrease in breeding productivity for most species, given that bird breeding phenology is failing to keep pace with climate change.

Habitat fragmentation and climate change are two of the greatest threats to biodiversity, yet their combined impacts and potential interactions are poorly understood, particularly in the context of demographic rates. The Usambara Mountains, Tanzania, comprise a highly fragmented landscape where temperatures have increased by 0.58 °C over the last three decades. Here, we used a 34-year bird banding dataset from 14 forest fragments (0.2-908 ha) to examine the combined effects of fragment area and mean annual temperature on the demographic rates of 24 understory bird species. The population growth rates of two-thirds of species were negatively associated with at least one of the stressors, and, overall, population growth rates were 12-20 % lower in the warmest year compared to the coolest year, depending on fragment size. When temperature and fragment area were combined in models of recruitment, survival, and population growth, their effects were more frequently interactive than additive, however these interactions were rarely synergistic. Independently, temperature also received more model support than fragment area and tended to have a greater impact on demographic rates across species. Despite the complexity of the interactions between fragment area and temperature, their total effects on tropical bird demographic rates were largely detrimental. The development of effective conservation strategies for montane tropical bird species needs to account for these combined impacts., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the USEPA. Any mention of trade names, products, or services does not imply an endorsement by the USEPA.

Spatial and temporal variation in fire characteristics-termed pyrodiversity-are increasingly recognized as important factors that structure wildlife communities in fire-prone ecosystems, yet there have been few attempts to incorporate pyrodiversity or post-fire habitat dynamics into predictive models of animal distributions and abundance to support post-fire management. We use the black-backed woodpecker-a species associated with burned forests-as a case study to demonstrate a pathway for incorporating pyrodiversity into wildlife habitat assessments for adaptive management. Employing monitoring data (2009-2019) from post-fire forests in California, we developed three competing occupancy models describing different hypotheses for habitat associations: (1) a static model representing an existing management tool, (2) a temporal model accounting for years since fire, and (3) a temporal-landscape model which additionally incorporates emerging evidence from field studies about the influence of pyrodiversity. Evaluating predictive ability, we found superior support for the temporal-landscape model, which showed a positive relationship between occupancy and pyrodiversity and interactions between habitat associations and years since fire. We incorporated the new temporal-landscape model into an RShiny application to make this decision-support tool accessible to decision-makers., (© 2023 The Ecological Society of America. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.)

As human density increases, biodiversity must increasingly co-exist with urbanization or face local extinction. Tolerance of urban areas has been linked to numerous functional traits, yet few globally consistent patterns have emerged to explain variation in urban tolerance, which stymies attempts at a generalizable predictive framework. Here, we calculate an Urban Association Index (UAI) for 3,768 bird species in 137 cities across all permanently inhabited continents. We then assess how this UAI varies as a function of ten species-specific traits and further test whether the strength of trait relationships vary as a function of three city-specific variables. Of the ten species traits, nine were significantly associated with urban tolerance. Urban-associated species tend to be smaller, less territorial, have greater dispersal ability, broader dietary and habitat niches, larger clutch sizes, greater longevity, and lower elevational limits. Only bill shape showed no global association with urban tolerance. Additionally, the strength of several trait relationships varied across cities as a function of latitude and/or human population density. For example, the associations of body mass and diet breadth were more pronounced at higher latitudes, while the associations of territoriality and longevity were reduced in cities with higher population density. Thus, the importance of trait filters in birds varies predictably across cities, indicating biogeographic variation in selection for urban tolerance that could explain prior challenges in the search for global patterns. A globally informed framework that predicts urban tolerance will be integral to conservation as increasing proportions of the world's biodiversity are impacted by urbanization., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Reports of declines in abundance and biomass of insects and other invertebrates from around the world have raised concerns about food limitation that could have profound impacts for insectivorous species. Food availability can clearly affect species; however, there is considerable variation among studies in whether this effect is evident, and thus a lack of clarity over the generality of the relationship. To understand how decreased food availability due to invertebrate declines will affect bird populations, we conducted a systematic review and used meta-analytic structural equation modelling, which allowed us to treat our core variables of interest as latent variables estimated by the diverse ways in which researchers measure fecundity and chick body condition. We found a moderate positive effect of food availability on chick body condition and a strong positive effect on reproductive success. We also found a negative relationship between chick body condition and reproductive success. Our results demonstrate that food is generally a limiting factor for breeding songbirds. Our analysis also provides evidence for a consistent trade-off between chick body condition and reproductive success, demonstrating the complexity of trophic dynamics important for these vital rates., (© 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

In conifer forests of western North America, wildlife populations can change rapidly in the decade following wildfire as trees die and animals respond to concomitant resource pulses that occur across multiple trophic levels. In particular, black-backed woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus) show predictable temporal increases then declines following fire; this trajectory is widely believed to be a response to the woodpeckers' main prey, woodboring beetle larvae of the families Buprestidae and Cerambycidae, but we lack understanding of how abundances of these predators and prey may be associated in time or space. Here, we pair woodpecker surveys over 10 years with surveys of woodboring beetle sign and activity, collected at 128 survey plots across 22 recent fires, to ask whether accumulated beetle sign indicates current or past black-backed woodpecker occurrence, and whether that relationship is mediated by the number of years since fire. We test this relationship using an integrative multi-trophic occupancy model. Our results demonstrate that woodboring beetle sign is a positive indicator of woodpecker presence 1-3 years following fire, an uninformative indicator from 4-6 years after fire, and a negative indicator beginning 7 years following fire. Woodboring beetle activity, itself, is temporally variable and dependent on tree species composition, with beetle sign generally accumulating over time, particularly in stands with diverse tree communities, but decreasing over time in Pinus-dominated stands where faster bark decay rates lead to brief pulses of beetle activity followed by rapid degradation of tree substrate and accumulated beetle sign. Altogether, the strong connections of woodpecker occurrence to beetle activity support prior hypotheses of how multi-trophic interactions govern rapid temporal dynamics of primary and secondary consumers in burned forests. While our results indicate that beetle sign is, at best, a rapidly shifting and potentially misleading measure of woodpecker occurrence, the better we understand the interacting mechanisms underlying temporally dynamic systems, the more successfully we will be able to predict the outcomes of management actions., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.)

Rare birds known as "accidentals" or "vagrants" have long captivated birdwatchers and puzzled biologists, but the drivers of these rare occurrences remain elusive. Errors in orientation or navigation are considered one potential driver: migratory birds use the Earth's magnetic field-sensed using specialized magnetoreceptor structures-to traverse long distances over often unfamiliar terrain. Disruption to these magnetoreceptors or to the magnetic field itself could potentially cause errors leading to vagrancy. Using data from 2 million captures of 152 landbird species in North America over 60 years, we demonstrate a strong association between disruption to the Earth's magnetic field and avian vagrancy during fall migration. Furthermore, we find that increased solar activity-a disruptor of the avian magnetoreceptor-generally counteracts this effect, potentially mitigating misorientation by disabling the ability for birds to use the magnetic field to orient. Our results link a hypothesized cause of misorientation to the phenomenon of avian vagrancy, further demonstrating the importance of magnetoreception among the orientation mechanisms of migratory birds. Geomagnetic disturbance may have important downstream ecological consequences, as vagrants may experience increased mortality rates or facilitate range expansions of avian populations and the organisms they disperse., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Advances in spring migratory phenology comprise some of the most well-documented evidence for the impacts of climate change on birds. Nevertheless, surprisingly little research has investigated whether birds are shifting their migratory phenology equally across sex and age classes-a question critical to understanding the potential for trophic mismatch. We used 60 years of bird banding data across North America-comprising over 4 million captures in total-to investigate both spring and fall migratory phenology for a total of 98 bird species across sex and age classes, with the exact numbers of species for each analysis depending on season-specific data availability. Consistent with protandry, in spring (n = 89 species), adult males were the first to arrive and immature females were the last to arrive. In fall (n = 98), there was little difference between sexes, but adults tended to depart earlier than juveniles. Over 60 years, adult males advanced their phenology the fastest (-0.84 days per decade, 95 CrI = -1.22 to -0.47, n = 36), while adult and immature females advanced at a slower pace, causing the gap in male and female arrival times to widen over time. In the fall, there was no overall trend in phenology by age or sex (n = 57), driven in part by high interspecific variation related to breeding and molt strategies. Our results indicate consistent and predictable age- and sex-based differences in the rates at which species' springtime phenology is shifting. The growing gap between male and female migratory arrival indicates sex-based plasticity in adaptation to climate change that has strong potential to negatively impact current and future population trends., (© 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Quantifying environment-morphology relationships is important not only for understanding the fundamental processes driving phenotypic diversity within and among species but also for predicting how species will respond to ongoing global change. Despite a clear set of expectations motivated by ecological theory, broad evidence in support of generalizable effects of abiotic conditions on spatial and temporal intraspecific morphological variation has been limited. Using standardized data from >250,000 captures of 105 landbird species, we assessed intraspecific shifts in the morphology of adult male birds since 1989 while simultaneously measuring spatial morphological gradients across the North American continent. We found strong spatial and temporal trends in average body size, with warmer temperatures associated with smaller body sizes both at more equatorial latitudes and in more recent years. The magnitude of these thermal effects varied both across and within species, with results suggesting it is the warmest, rather than the coldest, temperatures that drive both spatial and temporal trends. Stronger responses to spatial-rather than temporal-variation in temperature suggest that morphological change may not be keeping up with the pace of climate change. Additionally, as elevation increases, we found that body size declines as relative wing length increases, probably due to the benefits that longer wings confer for flight in thin air environments. Our results provide support for both existing and new large-scale ecomorphological 'rules' and highlight how the response of functional trade-offs to abiotic variation drives morphological change., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Habitat loss disrupts species interactions through local extinctions, potentially orphaning species that depend on interacting partners, via mutualisms or commensalisms, and increasing secondary extinction risk. Orphaned species may become functionally or secondarily extinct, increasing the severity of the current biodiversity crisis. While habitat destruction is a major cause of biodiversity loss, the number of secondary extinctions is largely unknown. We investigate the relationship between habitat loss, orphaned species, and bipartite network properties. Using a real seed dispersal network, we simulate habitat loss to estimate the rate at which species are orphaned. To be able to draw general conclusions, we also simulate habitat loss in synthetic networks to quantify how changes in network properties affect orphan rates across broader parameter space. Both real and synthetic network simulations show that even small amounts of habitat loss can cause up to 10% of species to be orphaned. More area loss, less connected networks, and a greater disparity in the species richness of the network's trophic levels generally result in more orphaned species. As habitat is lost to land-use conversion and climate change, more orphaned species increase the loss of community-level and ecosystem functions. However, the potential severity of repercussions ranges from minimal (no species orphaned) to catastrophic (up to 60% of species within a network orphaned). Severity of repercussions also depends on how much the interaction richness and intactness of the community affects the degree of redundancy within networks. Orphaned species could add substantially to the loss of ecosystem function and secondary extinction worldwide., (© 2022 The Ecological Society of America.)

Fire is an integral component of ecosystems globally and a tool that humans have harnessed for millennia. Altered fire regimes are a fundamental cause and consequence of global change, impacting people and the biophysical systems on which they depend. As part of the newly emerging Anthropocene, marked by human-caused climate change and radical changes to ecosystems, fire danger is increasing, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Increasing fire danger is a vexing problem that requires deep transdisciplinary, trans-sector, and inclusive partnerships to address. Here, we outline barriers and opportunities in the next generation of fire science and provide guidance for investment in future research. We synthesize insights needed to better address the long-standing challenges of innovation across disciplines to (i) promote coordinated research efforts; (ii) embrace different ways of knowing and knowledge generation; (iii) promote exploration of fundamental science; (iv) capitalize on the "firehose" of data for societal benefit; and (v) integrate human and natural systems into models across multiple scales. Fire science is thus at a critical transitional moment. We need to shift from observation and modeled representations of varying components of climate, people, vegetation, and fire to more integrative and predictive approaches that support pathways toward mitigating and adapting to our increasingly flammable world, including the utilization of fire for human safety and benefit. Only through overcoming institutional silos and accessing knowledge across diverse communities can we effectively undertake research that improves outcomes in our more fiery future., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences 2022.)

Species' response to rapid climate change can be measured through shifts in timing of recurring biological events, known as phenology. The Gulf of Maine is one of the most rapidly warming regions of the ocean, and thus an ideal system to study phenological and biological responses to climate change. A better understanding of climate-induced changes in phenology is needed to effectively and adaptively manage human-wildlife conflicts. Using data from a 20+ year marine mammal observation program, we tested the hypothesis that the phenology of large whale habitat use in Cape Cod Bay has changed and is related to regional-scale shifts in the thermal onset of spring. We used a multi-season occupancy model to measure phenological shifts and evaluate trends in the date of peak habitat use for North Atlantic right (Eubalaena glacialis), humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae), and fin (Balaenoptera physalus) whales. The date of peak habitat use shifted by +18.1 days (0.90 days/year) for right whales and +19.1 days (0.96 days/year) for humpback whales. We then evaluated interannual variability in peak habitat use relative to thermal spring transition dates (STD), and hypothesized that right whales, as planktivorous specialist feeders, would exhibit a stronger response to thermal phenology than fin and humpback whales, which are more generalist piscivorous feeders. There was a significant negative effect of western region STD on right whale habitat use, and a significant positive effect of eastern region STD on fin whale habitat use indicating differential responses to spatial seasonal conditions. Protections for threatened and endangered whales have been designed to align with expected phenology of habitat use. Our results show that whales are becoming mismatched with static seasonal management measures through shifts in their timing of habitat use, and they suggest that effective management strategies may need to alter protections as species adapt to climate change., (© 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Many species have not tracked their thermal niches upslope as predicted by climate change, potentially because higher elevations are associated with abiotic challenges beyond temperature. To better predict whether organisms can continue to move upslope with rising temperatures, we need to understand their physiological performance when subjected to novel high-elevation conditions. Here, we captured Anna's hummingbirds - a species expanding their elevational distribution in concordance with rising temperatures - from across their current elevational distribution and tested their physiological response to novel abiotic conditions. First, at a central aviary within their current elevational range, we measured hovering metabolic rate to assess their response to oxygen conditions and torpor use to assess their response to thermal conditions. Second, we transported the hummingbirds to a location 1200 m above their current elevational range limit to test for an acute response to novel oxygen and thermal conditions. Hummingbirds exhibited lower hovering metabolic rates above their current elevational range limit, suggesting lower oxygen availability may reduce performance after an acute exposure. Alternatively, hummingbirds showed a facultative response to thermal conditions by using torpor more frequently and for longer. Finally, post-experimental dissection found that hummingbirds originating from higher elevations within their range had larger hearts, a potential plastic response to hypoxic environments. Overall, our results suggest lower oxygen availability and low air pressure may be difficult challenges to overcome for hummingbirds shifting upslope as a consequence of rising temperatures, especially if there is little to no long-term acclimatization. Future studies should investigate how chronic exposure and acclimatization to novel conditions, as opposed to acute experiments, may result in alternative outcomes that help organisms better respond to abiotic challenges associated with climate-induced range shifts., Competing Interests: Competing interests The authors declare no competing or financial interests., (© 2022. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.)

Widespread woody encroachment is a prominent concern for savanna systems as it is often accompanied by losses in productivity and biodiversity. Extensive ecosystem-level work has advanced our understanding of its causes and consequences. However, there is still debate over whether local management can override regional and global drivers of woody encroachment, and it remains largely unknown how encroachment influences woody community assemblages. Here, we examined species-level changes in woody plant distributions and size structure from the late 1980s to the late 2000s based on spatially intensive ground-based surveys across Kruger National Park, South Africa. This study region spans broad gradients in rainfall, soil texture, fire frequency, elephant density, and other topographic variables. Species-level changes in frequency of occurrence and size class proportion reflected widespread woody encroachment primarily by Dichrostachys cinerea and Combretum apiculatum, and a loss of large trees mostly of Sclerocarya birrea and Acacia nigrescens. Environmental variables determining woody species distributions across Kruger varied among species but did not change substantially between two sampling times, indicating that woody encroachers were thickening within their existing ranges. Overall, more areas across Kruger were found to have an increased number of common woody species through time, which indicated an increase in stem density. These areas were generally associated with decreasing fire frequency and rainfall but increasing elephant density. Our results suggest that woody encroachment is a widespread but highly variable trend across landscapes in Kruger National Park and potentially reflects an erosion of local heterogeneity in woody community assemblages. Many savanna managers, including in Kruger, aim to manage for heterogeneity in order to promote biodiversity, where homogenization of vegetation structure counters this specific goal. Increasing fire frequency has some potential as a local intervention. However, many common species increased in commonness even under near-constant disturbance conditions, which likely limits the potential for managing woody encroachment in the face of drivers beyond the scope of local control. Regular field sampling coupled with targeted fire management will enable more accurate monitoring of the rate of encroachment intensification., (© 2021 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Animals and plants are shifting the timing of key life events in response to climate change, yet despite recent documentation of escalating phenological change, scientists lack a full understanding of how and why phenological responses vary across space and among species. Here, we used over 7 million community-contributed bird observations to derive species-specific, spatially explicit estimates of annual spring migration phenology for 56 bird species across eastern North America. We show that changes in the spring arrival of migratory birds are coarsely synchronized with fluctuations in vegetation green-up and that the sensitivity of birds to plant phenology varied extensively. Bird arrival responded more synchronously with vegetation green-up at higher latitudes, where phenological shifts over time are also greater. Critically, species' migratory traits explained variation in sensitivity to green-up, with species that migrate more slowly, arrive earlier and overwinter further north showing greater responsiveness to earlier springs. Identifying how and why species vary in their ability to shift phenological events is fundamental to predicting species' vulnerability to climate change. Such variation in sensitivity across taxa, with long-distance neotropical migrants exhibiting reduced synchrony, may help to explain substantial declines in these species over the last several decades.

Pyrodiversity, defined as variation in fire history and characteristics, has been shown to catalyse post-fire biodiversity in a variety of systems. However, the demographic and behavioural mechanisms driving the responses of individual species to pyrodiversity remain largely unexplored. We used a model post-fire specialist, the black-backed woodpecker (Picoides arcticus), to examine the relationship between fire characteristics and juvenile survival while controlling for confounding factors. We radio-tracked fledgling black-backed woodpeckers in burned forests of California and Washington, USA, and derived information on habitat characteristics using ground surveys and satellite data. We used hierarchical Bayesian mixed-effects models to determine the factors that influence both fledgling and annual juvenile survival, and we tested for effects of fledgling age on movement rates. Burn severity strongly affected fledgling survival, with lower survival in patches created by high-severity fire compared to patches burned at medium to low severity or left unburned. Time since leaving the nest was also a strong predictor of fledgling survival, annual juvenile survival and fledgling movement rates. Our results support the role of habitat complementation in generating species-specific benefits from variation in spatial fire characteristics-one axis of pyrodiversity-and highlight the importance of this variation under shifting fire regimes. High-severity fire provides foraging and nesting sites that support the needs of adult black-backed woodpeckers, but fledgling survival is greater in areas burned at lower severity. By linking breeding and foraging habitat with neighbouring areas of reduced predation risk, pyrodiversity may enhance the survival and persistence of animals that thrive in post-fire habitat., (Published 2021. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.)

Phenotypic plasticity plays a critical role in adaptation to novel environments. Behavioural plasticity enables more rapid responses to unfamiliar conditions than evolution by natural selection. Urban ecosystems are one such novel environment in which behavioural plasticity has been documented. However, whether such plasticity is adaptive, and if plasticity is convergent among urban populations, is poorly understood. We studied the nesting biology of an 'urban-adapter' species, the dark-eyed junco ( Junco hyemalis ), to understand the role of plasticity in adapting to city life. We examined (i) whether novel nesting behaviours are adaptive, (ii) whether pairs modify nest characteristics in response to prior outcomes, and (iii) whether two urban populations exhibit similar nesting behaviour. We monitored 170 junco nests in urban Los Angeles and compared our results with prior research on 579 nests from urban San Diego. We found that nests placed in ecologically novel locations (off-ground and on artificial surfaces) increased fitness, and that pairs practiced informed re-nesting in site selection. The Los Angeles population more frequently nested off-ground than the San Diego population and exhibited a higher success rate. Our findings suggest that plasticity facilitates adaptation to urban environments, and that the drivers behind novel nesting behaviours are complex and multifaceted.

Fire has been a source of global biodiversity for millions of years. However, interactions with anthropogenic drivers such as climate change, land use, and invasive species are changing the nature of fire activity and its impacts. We review how such changes are threatening species with extinction and transforming terrestrial ecosystems. Conservation of Earth's biological diversity will be achieved only by recognizing and responding to the critical role of fire. In the Anthropocene, this requires that conservation planning explicitly includes the combined effects of human activities and fire regimes. Improved forecasts for biodiversity must also integrate the connections among people, fire, and ecosystems. Such integration provides an opportunity for new actions that could revolutionize how society sustains biodiversity in a time of changing fire activity., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Fire creates challenges and opportunities for wildlife through rapid destruction, modification and creation of habitat. Fire has spatially variable effects on landscapes; however, for species that benefit from the ephemeral resource patches created by fire, it is critical to understand characteristics of fires that promote postfire colonization and persistence and the spatial scales on which they operate. Using a model postfire specialist, the black-backed woodpecker (Picoides arcticus), we examined how colonization and persistence varied across two spatial scales as a function of four characteristics of fire regimes-fire severity, fire size, fire ignition date and number of years since fire. We modelled black-backed woodpecker colonization and persistence using data from 108 recently burned forests in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades ecoregions of California, USA, that we monitored for up to 10 years following fire. We employed a novel, spatially hierarchical, dynamic occupancy framework which differentiates colonization and persistence at two spatial scales: across fires and within fires. We found strong effects of fire characteristics on dynamic rates, with colonization and persistence declining across both spatial scales with increasing years since fire. Additionally, at sites within fires, colonization decreased with fire size and increased with fire severity and for fires with later ignition dates. Our results support the notion that different aspects of a species' environment are important for population processes at different spatial scales. As habitat quality is ephemeral for any given postfire area, our results illustrate the importance of time since fire in structuring occupancy at the fire level, with other characteristics of fires playing larger roles in determining abundance within individual fires. Our results contribute to the broader understanding of how variation in fire characteristics influences the colonization and persistence of species using ephemeral habitats, which is necessary for conserving and promoting postfire biodiversity in the context of rapidly shifting fire regimes., (© 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2018 British Ecological Society.)

Incorporating imperfect detection when estimating species richness has become commonplace in the past decade. However, the question of how imperfect detection of species affects estimates of functional and phylogenetic community structure remains untested. We used long-term counts of breeding bird species that were detected at least once on islands in a land-bridge island system, and employed multi-species occupancy models to assess the effects of imperfect detection of species on estimates of bird diversity and community structure by incorporating species traits and phylogenies. Our results showed that taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity were all underestimated significantly as a result of species' imperfect detection, with taxonomic diversity showing the greatest bias. The functional and phylogenetic structure calculated from observed communities were both more clustered than those from the detection-corrected communities due to missed distinct species. The discrepancy between observed and estimated diversity differed according to the measure of biodiversity employed. Our study demonstrates the importance of accounting for species' imperfect detection in biodiversity studies, especially for functional and phylogenetic community ecology, and when attempting to infer community assembly processes. With datasets that allow for detection-corrected community structure, we can better estimate diversity and infer the underlying mechanisms that structure community assembly, and thus make reliable management decisions for the conservation of biodiversity., (© 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Peer review is widely considered fundamental to maintaining the rigour of science, but it often fails to ensure transparency and reduce bias in published papers, and this systematically weakens the quality of published inferences. In part, this is because many reviewers are unaware of important questions to ask with respect to the soundness of the design and analyses, and the presentation of the methods and results; also some reviewers may expect others to be responsible for these tasks. We therefore present a reviewers' checklist of ten questions that address these critical components. Checklists are commonly used by practitioners of other complex tasks, and we see great potential for the wider adoption of checklists for peer review, especially to reduce bias and facilitate transparency in published papers. We expect that such checklists will be well received by many reviewers.

Longstanding theory predicts that competitive interactions set species' range limits in relatively aseasonal, species-rich regions, while temperature limits distributions in more seasonal, species-poor areas. More recent theory holds that species evolve narrow physiological tolerances in aseasonal regions, with temperature being an important determining factor in such zones. We tested how abiotic (temperature) and biotic (competition) factors set range limits and structure bird communities along strong, opposing, temperature-seasonality and species-richness gradients in the Himalayas, in two regions separated by 1500 km. By examining the degree to which seasonal elevational migration conserves year-round thermal niches across species, we show that species in the relatively aseasonal and speciose east are more constrained by temperature compared with species in the highly seasonal west. We further show that seasonality has a profound effect on the strength of competition between congeneric species. Competition appears to be stronger in winter, a period of resource scarcity in the Himalayas, in both the east and the west, with similarly sized eastern species more likely to segregate in thermal niche space in winter. Our results indicate that rather than acting in isolation, abiotic and biotic factors mediate each other to structure ecological communities., (© 2018 The Author(s).)

Species respond to climate change in two dominant ways: range shifts in latitude or elevation and phenological shifts of life-history events. Range shifts are widely viewed as the principal mechanism for thermal niche tracking, and phenological shifts in birds and other consumers are widely understood as the principal mechanism for tracking temporal peaks in biotic resources. However, phenological and range shifts each present simultaneous opportunities for temperature and resource tracking, although the possible role for phenological shifts in thermal niche tracking has been widely overlooked. Using a canonical dataset of Californian bird surveys and a detectability-based approach for quantifying phenological signal, we show that Californian bird communities advanced their breeding phenology by 5-12 d over the last century. This phenological shift might track shifting resource peaks, but it also reduces average temperatures during nesting by over 1 °C, approximately the same magnitude that average temperatures have warmed over the same period. We further show that early-summer temperature anomalies are correlated with nest success in a continental-scale database of bird nests, suggesting avian thermal niches might be broadly limited by temperatures during nesting. These findings outline an adaptation surface where geographic range and breeding phenology respond jointly to constraints imposed by temperature and resource phenology. By stabilizing temperatures during nesting, phenological shifts might mitigate the need for range shifts. Global change ecology will benefit from further exploring phenological adjustment as a potential mechanism for thermal niche tracking and vice versa., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

The study of the ecology and natural history of species has traditionally ceased when a species goes extinct, despite the benefit to current and future generations of potential findings. We used the extinct Carolina parakeet as a case study to develop a framework investigating the distributional limits, subspecific variation, and migratory habits of this species as a means to recover important information about recently extinct species. We united historical accounts with museum collections to develop an exhaustive, comprehensive database of every known occurrence of this once iconic species. With these data, we combined species distribution models and ordinal niche comparisons to confront multiple conjectured hypotheses about the parakeet's ecology with empirical data on where and when this species occurred. Our results demonstrate that the Carolina parakeet's range was likely much smaller than previously believed, that the eastern and western subspecies occupied different climatic niches with broad geographical separation, and that the western subspecies was likely a seasonal migrant while the eastern subspecies was not. This study highlights the novelty and importance of collecting occurrence data from published observations on extinct species, providing a starting point for future investigations of the factors that drove the Carolina parakeet to extinction. Moreover, the recovery of lost autecological knowledge could benefit the conservation of other parrot species currently in decline and would be crucial to the success of potential de-extinction efforts for the Carolina parakeet.

Consistent with a warming climate, birds are shifting the timing of their migrations, but it remains unclear to what extent these shifts have kept pace with the changing environment. Because bird migration is primarily cued by annually consistent physiological responses to photoperiod, but conditions at their breeding grounds depend on annually variable climate, bird arrival and climate-driven spring events would diverge. We combined satellite and citizen science data to estimate rates of change in phenological interval between spring green-up and migratory arrival for 48 breeding passerine species across North America. Both arrival and green-up changed over time, usually in the same direction (earlier or later). Although birds adjusted their arrival dates, 9 of 48 species did not keep pace with rapidly changing green-up and across all species the interval between arrival and green-up increased by over half a day per year. As green-up became earlier in the east, arrival of eastern breeding species increasingly lagged behind green-up, whereas in the west-where green-up typically became later-birds arrived increasingly earlier relative to green-up. Our results highlight that phenologies of species and trophic levels can shift at different rates, potentially leading to phenological mismatches with negative fitness consequences.

Camera trapping is a standard tool in ecological research and wildlife conservation. Study designs, particularly for small-bodied or cryptic wildlife species often attempt to boost low detection probabilities by using non-random camera placement or baited cameras, which may bias data, or incorrectly estimate detection and occupancy. We investigated the ability of non-baited, multi-camera arrays to increase detection probabilities of wildlife. Study design components were evaluated for their influence on wildlife detectability by iteratively parsing an empirical dataset (1) by different sizes of camera arrays deployed (1-10 cameras), and (2) by total season length (1-365 days). Four species from our dataset that represented a range of body sizes and differing degrees of presumed detectability based on life history traits were investigated: white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), bobcat (Lynx rufus), raccoon (Procyon lotor), and Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana). For all species, increasing from a single camera to a multi-camera array significantly improved detection probability across the range of season lengths and number of study sites evaluated. The use of a two camera array increased survey detection an average of 80% (range 40-128%) from the detection probability of a single camera across the four species. Species that were detected infrequently benefited most from a multiple-camera array, where the addition of up to eight cameras produced significant increases in detectability. However, for species detected at high frequencies, single cameras produced a season-long (i.e, the length of time over which cameras are deployed and actively monitored) detectability greater than 0.75. These results highlight the need for researchers to be critical about camera trap study designs based on their intended target species, as detectability for each focal species responded differently to array size and season length. We suggest that researchers a priori identify target species for which inference will be made, and then design camera trapping studies around the most difficult to detect of those species.

The trade in wild animals involves one-third of the world's bird species and thousands of other vertebrate species. Although a few species are imperiled as a result of the wildlife trade, the lack of field studies makes it difficult to gauge how serious a threat it is to biodiversity. We used data on changes in bird abundances across space and time and information from trapper interviews to evaluate the effects of trapping wild birds for the pet trade in Sumatra, Indonesia. To analyze changes in bird abundance over time, we used data gathered over 14 years of repeated bird surveys in a 900-ha forest in southern Sumatra. In northern Sumatra, we surveyed birds along a gradient of trapping accessibility, from the edge of roads to 5 km into the forest interior. We interviewed 49 bird trappers in northern Sumatra to learn which species they targeted and how far they went into the forest to trap. We used prices from Sumatran bird markets as a proxy for demand and, therefore, trapping pressure. Market price was a significant predictor of species declines over time in southern Sumatra (e.g., given a market price increase of approximately $50, the log change in abundance per year decreased by 0.06 on average). This result indicates a link between the market-based pet trade and community-wide species declines. In northern Sumatra, price and change in abundance were not related to remoteness (distance from the nearest road). However, based on our field surveys, high-value species were rare or absent across this region. The median maximum distance trappers went into the forest each day was 5.0 km. This suggests that trapping has depleted bird populations across our remoteness gradient. We found that less than half of Sumatra's remaining forests are >5 km from a major road. Our results suggest that trapping for the pet trade threatens birds in Sumatra. Given the popularity of pet birds across Southeast Asia, additional studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and magnitude of the threat posed by the pet trade., (© 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.)

There is clear evidence that species' ranges along environmental gradients are constrained by both biotic and abiotic factors, yet their relative importance in structuring realized distributions remains uncertain. We surveyed breeding bird communities while collecting in situ temperature and vegetation data along five elevational transects in the Himalayas differing in temperature variability, habitat zonation, and bird richness in order to disentangle temperature, habitat, and congeneric competition as mechanisms structuring elevational ranges. Our results from species' abundance models representing these three mechanisms differed markedly from previous, foundational research in the tropics. Contrary to general expectations, we found little evidence for competition as a major determinant of range boundaries, with congeneric species limiting only 12% of ranges. Instead, temperature and habitat were found to structure the majority of species' distributions, limiting 48 and 40% of ranges, respectively. Our results suggest that different mechanisms may structure species ranges in the temperate Himalayas compared to tropical systems. Despite recent evidence suggesting temperate species have broader thermal tolerances than tropical species, our findings reinforce the notion that the abiotic environment has significant control over the distributions of temperate species., (© 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.)

An emerging hypothesis in fire ecology is that pyrodiversity increases species diversity. We test whether pyrodiversity-defined as the standard deviation of fire severity-increases avian biodiversity at two spatial scales, and whether and how this relationship may change in the decade following fire. We use a dynamic Bayesian community model applied to a multi-year dataset of bird surveys at 1106 points sampled across 97 fires in montane California. Our results provide strong support for a positive relationship between pyrodiversity and bird diversity. This relationship interacts with time since fire, with pyrodiversity having a greater effect on biodiversity at 10 years post-fire than at 1 year post-fire. Immediately after fires, patches of differing burn severities hold similar bird communities, but over the ensuing decade, bird assemblages within patches of contrasting severities differentiate. When evaluated at the scale of individual fires, fires with a greater heterogeneity of burn severities hold substantially more species. High spatial heterogeneity in severity, sometimes called 'mixed-severity fire', is a natural part of wildfire regimes in western North America, but may be jeopardized by climate change and a legacy of fire suppression. Forest management that encourages mixed-severity fire may be critical for sustaining biodiversity across fire-prone landscapes., (© 2016 The Author(s).)

Birds have long been hypothesized as primary dispersal agents of the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand). Although A. tsugae eggs and mobile first instars (crawlers) have been collected from wild birds, key mechanistic elements necessary for avian dispersal have never been examined. To evaluate the mechanisms of bird-mediated A. tsugae dispersal, we conducted both stationary (i.e., where crawlers must actively disperse) and disturbance (i.e., where crawlers may transfer from substrates due to mechanical abrasion) dispersal trials. For stationary trials, we tested the role of perching duration, ovisac density, and seasonal timing on the rate of crawler transfer to immobile preserved bird mounts at a single site in Connecticut. For disturbance trials, we explored if transfer rates were different when branches were actively brushed against birds. Both stationary and disturbance trials resulted in successful transfers of A. tsugae to bird mounts, with disturbance trials having significantly higher rates of transfers. Crawler counts from stationary trials increased significantly with local ovisac density. Additionally, we found a nonlinear relationship between crawler transfer and experimental week, with crawler transfer highest at the beginning of sampling in May, coinciding with avian spring migration in Connecticut and the emergence of progrediens crawlers, and spiking again near 14 June, when sistens generation crawlers began to emerge. While many aspects of potential avian dispersal of A. tsugae remain unknown, these results suggest that crawler transfer to birds may occur most often when peak crawler emergence coincides with the northward migration of many small passerine bird species., (© The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Resurveys of historical collecting localities have revealed range shifts, primarily leading edge expansions, which have been attributed to global warming. However, there have been few spatially replicated community-scale resurveys testing whether species' responses are spatially consistent. Here we repeated early twentieth century surveys of small mammals along elevational gradients in northern, central and southern regions of montane California. Of the 34 species we analysed, 25 shifted their ranges upslope or downslope in at least one region. However, two-thirds of ranges in the three regions remained stable at one or both elevational limits and none of the 22 species found in all three regions shifted both their upper and lower limits in the same direction in all regions. When shifts occurred, high-elevation species typically contracted their lower limits upslope, whereas low-elevation species had heterogeneous responses. For high-elevation species, site-specific change in temperature better predicted the direction of shifts than change in precipitation, whereas the direction of shifts by low-elevation species was unpredictable by temperature or precipitation. While our results support previous findings of primarily upslope shifts in montane species, they also highlight the degree to which the responses of individual species vary across geographically replicated landscapes.

As species adapt to a changing climate, so too must humans adapt to a new conservation landscape. Classical frameworks have distinguished between fine- and coarse-filter conservation strategies, focusing on conserving either the species or the landscapes, respectively, that together define extant biodiversity. Adapting this framework for climate change, conservationists are using fine-filter strategies to assess species vulnerability and prioritize the most vulnerable species for conservation actions. Coarse-filter strategies seek to conserve either key sites as determined by natural elements unaffected by climate change, or sites with low climate velocity that are expected to be refugia for climate-displaced species. Novel approaches combine coarse- and fine-scale approaches--for example, prioritizing species within pretargeted landscapes--and accommodate the difficult reality of multiple interacting stressors. By taking a diversified approach to conservation actions and decisions, conservationists can hedge against uncertainty, take advantage of new methods and information, and tailor actions to the unique needs and limitations of places, thereby ensuring that the biodiversity show will go on., (© 2014 New York Academy of Sciences.)

Estimates of species richness and diversity are central to community and macroecology and are frequently used in conservation planning. Commonly used diversity metrics account for undetected species primarily by controlling for sampling effort. Yet the probability of detecting an individual can vary among species, observers, survey methods, and sites. We review emerging methods to estimate alpha, beta, gamma, and metacommunity diversity through hierarchical multispecies occupancy models (MSOMs) and multispecies abundance models (MSAMs) that explicitly incorporate observation error in the detection process for species or individuals. We examine advantages, limitations, and assumptions of these detection-based hierarchical models for estimating species diversity. Accounting for imperfect detection using these approaches has influenced conclusions of comparative community studies and creates new opportunities for testing theory., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Although there are numerous examples of individual species moving up in elevation and poleward in latitude in response to 20th century climate change, how communities have responded is less well understood and requires fully accounting for changes in species-specific detectability over time, which has been neglected in past studies. We use a hierarchical Bayesian occupancy model to examine bird species richness change and turnover along three elevation gradients surveyed 80-100 years apart in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA. Richness declined over the 20th century across all elevations. Turnover was greatest at the highest and the lowest elevations. These findings were only apparent, however, after species' detectability was incorporated into measures of species richness. Further partitioning of species richness changes by elevational life zone showed that numbers of low- and high-elevation species declined, without a concurrent expansion by mid-elevation species. Our results provide empirical evidence for biodiversity loss in protected montane areas during the 20th century and highlight the importance of accounting for detectability in comparisons of species richness over time.

The ability of species to respond to novel future climates is determined in part by their physiological capacity to tolerate climate change and the degree to which they have reached and continue to maintain distributional equilibrium with the environment. While broad-scale correlative climatic measurements of a species' niche are often described as estimating the fundamental niche, it is unclear how well these occupied portions actually approximate the fundamental niche per se, versus the fundamental niche that exists in environmental space, and what fitness values bounding the niche are necessary to maintain distributional equilibrium. Here, we investigate these questions by comparing physiological and correlative estimates of the thermal niche in the introduced North American house sparrow (Passer domesticus). Our results indicate that occupied portions of the fundamental niche derived from temperature correlations closely approximate the centroid of the existing fundamental niche calculated on a fitness threshold of 50% population mortality. Using these niche measures, a 75-year time series analysis (1930-2004) further shows that: (i) existing fundamental and occupied niche centroids did not undergo directional change, (ii) interannual changes in the two niche centroids were correlated, (iii) temperatures in North America moved through niche space in a net centripetal fashion, and consequently, (iv) most areas throughout the range of the house sparrow tracked the existing fundamental niche centroid with respect to at least one temperature gradient. Following introduction to a new continent, the house sparrow rapidly tracked its thermal niche and established continent-wide distributional equilibrium with respect to major temperature gradients. These dynamics were mediated in large part by the species' broad thermal physiological tolerances, high dispersal potential, competitive advantage in human-dominated landscapes, and climatically induced changes to the realized environmental space. Such insights may be used to conceptualize mechanistic climatic niche models in birds and other taxa.

In the face of environmental change, species can evolve new physiological tolerances to cope with altered climatic conditions or move spatially to maintain existing physiological associations with particular climates that define each species' climatic niche. When environmental change occurs over short temporal and large spatial scales, vagile species are expected to move geographically by tracking their climatic niches through time. Here, we test for evidence of niche tracking in bird species of the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, focusing on 53 species resurveyed nearly a century apart at 82 sites on four elevational transects. Changes in climate and bird distributions resulted in focal species shifting their average climatological range over time. By comparing the directions of these shifts relative to the centroids of species' range-wide climatic niches, we found that 48 species (90.6%) tracked their climatic niche. Analysis of niche sensitivity on an independent set of occurrence data significantly predicted the temperature and precipitation gradients tracked by species. Furthermore, in 50 species (94.3%), site-specific occupancy models showed that the position of each site relative to the climatic niche centroid explained colonization and extinction probabilities better than a null model with constant probabilities. Combined, our results indicate that the factors limiting a bird species' range in the Sierra Nevada in the early 20th century also tended to drive changes in distribution over time, suggesting that climatic models derived from niche theory might be used successfully to forecast where and how to conserve species in the face of climate change.

The difficulty of making valid comparisons between historical and contemporary data is an obstacle to documenting range change in relation to environmental modifications. Recent statistical advances use occupancy modeling to estimate simultaneously the probability of detection and the probability of occupancy, and enable unbiased comparisons between historical and modern data; however, they require repeated surveys at the same locations within a time period. We present two models for explicitly comparing occupancy between historical and modern eras, and discuss methods to measure range change. We suggest that keepers of historical data have crucial roles in curating and aiding accessibility to data, and we recommend that collectors of contemporary specimen data organize their sampling efforts to include repeated surveys to estimate detection probabilities.