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Objective: This study investigated the association between gait speed, handgrip strength, and their combination, and the risk for developing clinically relevant depressive symptoms in community-dwelling older adults., Methods: A secondary analysis was conducted using data from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly study. Participants were community-dwelling older adults in Australia and the United States of America followed for a median (interquartile range) of 3.97 (2.26) years. Baseline handgrip strength and gait speed were used as exposure variables, and their combination categories were also explored. Depression was measured using the modified Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression 10-item scale (CES-D 10). Cox regression was used to estimate Adjusted Hazard Ratios (AHR) with 95 % Confidence Intervals (CI) after adjusting for a range of potential confounders., Result: A total of 17,231 participants (55.3 % women) were included in the analysis. Slow gait and weak grip at baseline were associated with the risk of depression (AHR: 1.20; CI: 1.11-1.29 and 1.14; 1.06-1.23, respectively). The combination of the two physical performance measures was associated with a 31 % increase in the risk of depression (1.31; 1.16-1.47) and a significant dose-response association was observed for quintiles of gait and grip with depression., Limitations: Although the CES-D 10 is a validated scale, it is a self-reported tool rather than a clinical diagnosis of depression., Conclusion: Low physical function may be a risk factor for depression in older adults. This highlights the inextricable link between the physical and mental health of older adults, which can inform potential clinical and public health prevention strategies for depression in later life., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest TC has received honoraria for lectures from Roche. The authors declare no conflicts of interest., (Crown Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Dietary patterns contribute to overall health and diseases of ageing but are understudied in older adults. As such, we first aimed to develop dietary indices to quantify Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) utilisation and Ultra-processed Food (UPF) intake in a well-characterised cohort of relatively healthy community-dwelling older Australian adults. Second, we aimed to understand the relationship between these scores and the association of these scores with prevalent cardiometabolic disease and frailty. Our major findings are that in this population of older adults, (a) pre-frailty and frailty are associated with reduced MDS and increased UPF intake; (b) adherence to MDS eating patterns does not preclude relatively high intake of UPF (and vice versa); and (c) high utilisation of an MDS eating pattern does not prevent an increased risk of frailty with higher UPF intakes. As such, the Mediterranean Diet pattern should be encouraged in older adults to potentially reduce the risk of frailty, while the impact of UPF intake should be further explored given the convenience these foods provide to a population whose access to unprocessed food may be limited due to socioeconomic, health, and lifestyle factors.

Artificial intelligence (AI) based predictive models for early detection of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk are increasingly being utilised. However, AI based risk prediction models that account for right-censored data have been overlooked. This systematic review (PROSPERO protocol CRD42023492655) includes 33 studies that utilised machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models for survival outcome in CVD prediction. We provided details on the employed ML and DL models, eXplainable AI (XAI) techniques, and type of included variables, with a focus on social determinants of health (SDoH) and gender-stratification. Approximately half of the studies were published in 2023 with the majority from the United States. Random Survival Forest (RSF), Survival Gradient Boosting models, and Penalised Cox models were the most frequently employed ML models. DeepSurv was the most frequently employed DL model. DL models were better at predicting CVD outcomes than ML models. Permutation-based feature importance and Shapley values were the most utilised XAI methods for explaining AI models. Moreover, only one in five studies performed gender-stratification analysis and very few incorporate the wide range of SDoH factors in their prediction model. In conclusion, the evidence indicates that RSF and DeepSurv models are currently the optimal models for predicting CVD outcomes. This study also highlights the better predictive ability of DL survival models, compared to ML models. Future research should ensure the appropriate interpretation of AI models, accounting for SDoH, and gender stratification, as gender plays a significant role in CVD occurrence., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

In 2014, a fire at an open cut coalmine in regional Victoria, Australia burned for 6 weeks. Residents of the nearby town of Morwell were exposed to smoke, which included high levels of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ). We investigated whether the long-term effects of PM 2.5 on respiratory health were moderated by diet quality. A cross-sectional analysis was conducted of data collected 8.5 years after the mine fire from 282 residents of Morwell and 166 residents from the nearby unexposed town of Sale. Primary outcomes were respiratory symptoms. Exposure was coalmine fire-related PM 2.5 and diet quality was assessed as Australian Recommended Food Score (ARFS) derived using the Australian Eating Survey (AES). The moderating effect of diet quality on respiratory outcomes associated with PM 2.5 was assessed using logistic regression models, adjusting for potential confounders. Diet quality was poor in this sample, with 60% in the lowest category of overall diet quality. Overall diet quality and fruit and vegetable quality significantly attenuated the association between PM 2.5 and prevalence of chronic cough and phlegm. Sauce/condiment intake was associated with a greater effect of PM 2.5 on COPD prevalence. No other moderating effects were significant. The moderating effects of overall diet quality and vegetable and fruit intake aligned with a priori hypotheses, suggesting potential protective benefits. While more evidence is needed to confirm these findings, improving diets, especially fruit and vegetable intake, may provide some protection against the effects of smoke exposure from fire events., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests:Thara Govindaraju, Matthew Carroll, Brigitte M. Borg, Catherine L. Smith, Caroline X. Gao, David Brown, David Poland, Shantelle Allgood, Jillian F. Skin, Michael J. Abrasion, Tyler J. Lane reports financial support was provided by Victoria Department of Health. Michael J. Abramson reports a relationship with Pfizer, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Sanofi, GSK that includes: funding grants. If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: Within the healthy population there is a large variation in the ability to perform smooth pursuit eye movements. Our purpose was to investigate the genetic and physiological bases for this variation., Methods: We carried out a whole-genome association study, recording smooth pursuit movements for 1040 healthy volunteers by infrared oculography. The primary phenotypic measure was root mean square error (RMSE) of eye position relative to target position. Secondary measures were pursuit gain, frequency of catch-up saccades, and frequency of anticipatory saccades. Ten percent of participants, chosen randomly, were tested twice, giving estimates of test-retest reliability., Results: No significant association was found with three genes previously identified as candidate genes for variation in smooth pursuit: DRD3, COMT, NRG1. A strong association (P = 3.55 × 10-11) was found between RMSE and chromosomal region 1q42.2. The most strongly associated marker (rs701232) lies in an intron of KCNK1, which encodes a two-pore-domain potassium ion channel TWIK-1 (or K2P1) that affects cell excitability. Each additional copy of the A allele decreased RMSE by 0.29 standard deviation. When a psychophysical test of visually perceived motion was used as a covariate in the regression analysis, the association with rs701232 did not weaken (P = 5.38 × 10-12)., Conclusions: Variation in the sequence or the expression of the pH-dependent ion channel TWIK-1 is a likely source of variance in smooth pursuit. The variance associated with TWIK-1 appears not to arise from sensory mechanisms, because the use of a perceptual covariate left the association intact.

Introduction: Poor social connection is considered a risk factor for dementia. Since socializing behaviors may cluster together or act compensatorily, we aimed to investigate social connection patterns and their association with dementia, for men and women separately., Methods: A total of 12,896 community-dwelling older adults (mean ± SD age: 75.2 ± 4.3 years, 54% women) without major cognitive impairment were included. Latent class analysis was conducted using 24 baseline social connection indicators. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the association between latent classes and incident dementia over 12 (median: 8.4) years follow-up., Results: Three distinct classes were identified in both genders: strong social connections with an intermediate friend-relative network (Class 1: men, 43.8%; women, 37.9%), weak social connections (Class 2: men, 29.6%; women, 27.4%), and strong social connections with a larger friend-relative network (Class 3: men, 26.6%; women, 34.7%). Compared to Class 1, men in Class 2 (HR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.08-1.77) and women in Class 3 (HR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.01-1.60) had an increased risk of dementia., Discussion: Dementia risk varies with different social connection patterns among older men and women., Highlights: Three distinct social connection patterns were identified based on 24 indicators. These patterns were related to dementia risk differently in men and women. In men, a weak social connection pattern was associated with a higher dementia risk. In women, a strong social connection with a relatively larger friend-relative network was associated with a greater dementia risk., (© 2024 The Author(s). Alzheimer's & Dementia published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Alzheimer's Association.)

Background: Gender influences cardiovascular disease (CVD) through norms, social relations, roles and behaviours. This study identified gender-specific aspects of socialisation associated with CVD., Methods: A longitudinal study was conducted, involving 9936 (5,231 women and 4705 men) initially healthy, community-dwelling Australians aged 70 years or more from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study and ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons, with a median follow-up time of 6.4 years. Variable categorisation, variable selection (using machine learning (ML) models; Elastic Net and extreme gradient boosting) and Cox-regression were employed separately by binary gender to identity socialisation factors (n=25 considered) associated with CVD., Results: Different socialisation factors were identified using the ML models. In the Cox model, for both genders, being married/partnered was associated with a reduced risk of CVD (men: HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.96; women: HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.95). For men, having 3-8 relatives they felt close to and could call on for help (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.99; reference <3 relatives), having 3-8 relatives they felt at ease talking with about private matters (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.90; reference <3 relatives) or playing games such as chess or cards (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.00) was associated with reduced risk of CVD. For women, living with others (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.91) or having ≥3 friends they felt at ease talking with about private matters (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.95; reference <3 friends) was associated with a lower risk of CVD., Conclusions: This study demonstrates the need to prioritise gender-specific social factors to improve cardiovascular health in older adults., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To investigate the association between oral health status and all-cause mortality in older adults using prospective cohort study design., Setting and Participants: In total, 12 809 adults aged ≥70 years (54.3% females) were participants of the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP)., Methods: Participants self-reported the presence of natural teeth and oral health status. The association of self-reported oral health, edentulism and the integrative measure of the two with all-cause mortality were explored using the Cox-regression models adjusted for age, gender, socio-economic status, health-related behaviours, weight status, aspirin and polypharmacy. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were reported., Results: In total, 22.2% of participants reported edentulism and 13.8% had fair/poor oral health. After adjustment for confounders, risk of all-cause mortality was higher among those with edentulism (vs. no edentulism) HR (95% CI) 1.43 (1.18, 1.73); and those with edentulism and reporting poor/fair oral health HR (95% CI) 1.69 (1.02, 2.82), or with no edentulism but reporting poor/fair oral health HR (95% CI) 1.46 (1.19-1.80) vs. no edentulism and reporting good/very good/excellent oral health. No association was observed between self-reported oral health alone and all-cause mortality., Conclusions: The risk of all-cause mortality was 69% higher among older adults reporting both edentulism and poor/fair oral health compared with those with teeth and more favourable self-reported oral health. © 2023 Australian Dental Association., (© 2023 The Authors. Australian Dental Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australian Dental Association.)

Objectives: This study examines the gender-specific associations between a wide range of social activities and dementia risk., Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted involving community-dwelling older Australians (≥70 years) without significant cognitive impairment at enrolment. During the first year of enrolment, we assessed 25 self-reported social activities covering various aspects, including support from relatives and friends, community participation, social interactions with surroundings, and loneliness. Dementia diagnosis followed DSM-IV criteria, adjudicated by an international expert panel. To estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between social activities and dementia, we performed Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for age, educational attainment, baseline global cognition, and depressive symptoms., Results: Among 9,936 participants who completed all social activity questionnaires (median [IQR] age: 73.4 [71.6-77.1] years; 47.4% men), dementia was diagnosed in 3.8% of men (n = 181/4,705) and 2.6% of women (n = 138/5,231) over a median 6.4 years (IQR: 5.3-7.6, range: 0.2-10.1) follow-up. Gender-specific relationships emerged: caregiving for a person with illness/disability in women (HR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.42-0.99), and having ≥9 relatives feeling close to call for help in men (HR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.33-0.96; reference <9 relatives) were associated with reduced dementia risk. Unexpectedly, in women, having ≥5 friends with whom they felt comfortable discussing private matters were associated with a greater dementia risk (HR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.10-2.59; reference ≤2 friends). Imputed models further identified that babysitting/childminding was associated with lower dementia risk in men (HR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.56-0.99). No other social activities showed significant associations with dementia., Discussion: This study provides evidence of social activities influencing dementia risk. Further investigations are required to uncover the mechanisms driving these observed relationships., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America.)

Background: The validity of findings from epidemiological studies using self-report of ophthalmic conditions depends on several factors. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of self-reported age-related macular degeneration (AMD) among older Australians enroled in a primary prevention clinical trial and compared diagnostic accuracy between demographic subgroups., Methods: At baseline (2010-2015), Australian sub-study participants of the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial, underwent bilateral two-field, 45° non-mydriatic colour retinal photography. Beckman classification of any-stage AMD was used as the reference standard diagnosis. Participants were asked whether a doctor had ever diagnosed them with "macular degeneration" (the index test) via a paper-based questionnaire as part of the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP) within the first year of enrolment., Results: In total, 4193 participants were included (aged 70-92 years, 50.8% female). Of those, 262 (6.3%) reported having AMD and 92 (2.2%) were unsure. Retinal grading detected 2592 (61.8%) with no AMD, 867 (20.7%) with early, 686 (16.4%) with intermediate and 48 (1.1%) with late AMD (n = 1601 with any-stage AMD, 38.2%). Self-reported AMD had 11.4% sensitivity (95% CI 9.9-13.1) and 96.9% specificity (95% CI 96.2-97.6) for any-stage AMD, with 69.8% and 63.9% positive and negative predictive values. Sensitivity was higher among participants with late-stage AMD (87.5%), older participants (26.8%), and those with poorer vision (41.0%)., Conclusions: Although most participants with late-stage AMD were aware of having AMD, the majority with early and intermediate AMD were not. Therefore, findings from studies that rely on disease self-report should be interpreted with caution., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE), a placebo-controlled prevention trial of low dose aspirin, provided the opportunity to establish a biospecimen biobank from initially healthy persons aged 70+ years for future research. The ASPREE Healthy Ageing Biobank (ASPREE Biobank) collected, processed and stored blood and urine samples at -80degC or under nitrogen vapour at two timepoints, three years apart, from a willing subset of Australian ASPREE participants. Written informed consent included separate opt-in questions for biomarker and genetic testing. Fractionated blood and urine were aliquoted into multiple low-volume, barcoded cryotubes for frozen storage within 4 hours of collection. Specially designed and outfitted mobile laboratories provided opportunities for participation by people in regional and rural areas. Detailed, high quality demographic, physiological and clinical data were collected annually through the ASPREE trial. 12,219 participants contributed blood/urine at the first timepoint, 10,617 of these older adults provided 3-year follow-up samples, and an additional 1,712 provided saliva for DNA. The mean participant age was 74 years, 54% were female and 46% lived outside major cities. Despite geographical and logistical challenges, nearly 100% of blood/urine specimens were processed and frozen within 4 hours of collection into >1.4 million aliquots. After a median of 4.7 years, major clinical events among ASPREE Biobank participants included 332 with dementia, 613 with cardiovascular disease events, 1259 with cancer, 357 with major bleeds and 615 had died. The ASPREE Biobank houses and curates a large number of biospecimens collected prior to the clinical manifestations of major disease, and 3-year follow-up samples, all linked to high quality, extensive phenotypic information. This provides the opportunity to identify or validate diagnostic, prognostic and predictive biomarkers, and potentially study biological effectors, of ageing-related diseases or maintenance of older-age good health., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Parker et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: Inflammation has been implicated in the pathogenesis of diabetes. This study investigated the randomised treatment effect of low-dose aspirin on incident type 2 diabetes and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) concentrations among older adults., Methods: ASPREE was a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of daily oral low-dose aspirin. The study population included community-dwelling individuals aged 70 years or older (≥65 years for US minority ethnic groups) in the USA and Australia who were free of cardiovascular disease, independence-limiting physical disability, or dementia. For the post-hoc analysis, we excluded participants with diabetes at baseline or with incomplete or missing incident diabetes data during follow-up. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1 to oral 100 mg daily enteric-coated aspirin or placebo. Incident diabetes was defined as self-reported diabetes, commencement of glucose-lowering medication, or a FPG concentration of 7·0 mmol/L or more assessed at annual follow-up visits among participants with no diabetes at baseline. We used Cox proportional hazards models and mixed-model repeated measures to assess the effect of aspirin on incident diabetes and FPG concentrations in the intention-to-treat population. We assessed major bleeding in participants who had taken at least one dose of study medication., Findings: Between March 10, 2010, and Dec 24, 2014, a total of 16 209 participants were included (8086 [49·9%] randomly assigned to aspirin and 8123 [50·1%] randomly assigned to placebo). During a median follow-up of 4·7 years (IQR 3·6-5·7), 995 (in 6·1% individuals) incident cases of type 2 diabetes were recorded (459 in the aspirin group and 536 in the placebo group). Compared with placebo, the aspirin group had a 15% reduction in risk of incident diabetes (hazard ratio 0·85 [95% CI 0·75 to 0·97]; p=0·013) and a slower rate of increase in FPG concentration at year 5 (between-group difference estimate -0·048 mmol/L [95% CI -0·079 to -0·018]; p=0·0017). Major bleeding (major gastrointestinal bleeding, intracranial bleeding, and clinically significant bleeding at other sites) occurred in 510 (3·2%) of 16 104 participants (300 [3·7%] in the aspirin group and 210 [2·6%] in the placebo group). Compared with placebo, the aspirin group had a 44% increase in risk of major bleeding (hazard ratio 1·44 [95% CI 1·21 to 1·72]; p<0·0001)., Interpretation: Aspirin treatment reduced the incidence of type 2 diabetes and slowed the increase in FPG concentration but increased major bleeding among community-dwelling older adults. Given the increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes among older adults, the potential for anti-inflammatory agents such as aspirin to prevent type 2 diabetes or improve glucose levels warrants further study with a comprehensive assessment of all potential safety events of interest., Funding: US National Institute on Aging, US National Cancer Institute, National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, Monash University, and the Victorian Cancer Agency., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests MRN reported receiving a meeting honorarium from Bayer and trial product in ASPREE provided by Bayer and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council grant support for STAREE. CMR reported being funded through an Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Principal Research Fellowship. SZ has received payment to their institution from Eli Lilly Australia, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Merck Sharp & Dohme Australia, AstraZeneca, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, and Servier for consultancy work outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: The impact of long-term occupational exposures on health in older adults is increasingly relevant as populations age. To date, no studies have reported their impact on survival free of disability in older adults., Aims: We aimed to investigate the association between long-term occupational exposure and disability-free survival (DFS), all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in initially healthy older adults., Methods: We analysed data from 12 215 healthy participants in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study whose mean age was 75 years. Their work history was collated with the 'ALOHA-plus JEM' (Job Exposure Matrix) to assign occupational exposures. The primary endpoint, DFS, was a composite measure of death, dementia or persistent physical disability. The secondary endpoint, mortality, was classified according to the underlying cause. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals, adjusted for confounders., Results: A total of 1835 individuals reached the DFS endpoint during the median 4.7 years follow-up period. Both ever-high and cumulative exposure to all dusts and all pesticides during a person's working years were associated with reduced DFS. Compared to no exposure, men with high exposure to dusts and pesticides had a reduced DFS. Neither of these exposures were significantly associated with all-cause mortality. Men with high occupational exposure to solvents and women exposed to dusts experienced higher all-cause and cancer-related mortality., Conclusions: Long-term occupational exposure to all dusts and pesticides was associated with a reduced DFS and increased mortality in community-dwelling healthy older adults., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine.)

Background: Certain occupational characteristics have been linked with poor health and reduced longevity. However, the association between occupational characteristics and survival free of disability in a post-retirement age group has not been investigated., Methods: We investigated outcomes in 12,215 healthy older Australian adults in the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) and ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP) sub-study. The ISCO-88 major occupational groups, settings, and activity levels were assigned based on free-text job descriptions. The Finnish Job Exposure Matrix was used to assign occupational characteristics to the three longest-held jobs. The primary endpoint, disability-free survival, was defined as a composite measure of death, dementia, or persistent physical disability. The endpoint of all-cause mortality was analyzed separately. Because of multiple exploratory analyses, only those associations with a two-sided value of p less than 0.005 were considered statistically significant. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios., Results: Having worked in an 'elementary' occupation was associated with a reduction in disability-free survival. A specific impact on disability-free survival was observed among those whose work had involved high accident risk and adverse social climate. No significant relationship was identified with those previously exposed to sedentary work, vigorous physical activity, work primarily outdoors, or a range of other occupational characteristics. All-cause mortality was not increased among any of the occupational groups., Conclusion: This exploratory study found a reduction in disability-free survival among people who worked in 'elementary' occupations, with specific risks associated with occupations involving high accident risks and adverse social climate., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Alif, Benke, Ronaldson, Walker-Bone, Woods, Tran, Beilin, Tonkin, Owen and McNeil.)

Background: Physiological anisocoria is an asymmetry of pupil size in the absence of pathology., Methods: Images of the pupils under standard illumination were collected in the course of a whole-genome association study of a range of visual functions in 1060 healthy adults. DNA for each participant was extracted from saliva samples., Results: We found no relationship between anisocoria and the difference in refraction between the eyes, nor between anisocoria and difference in acuity. There was a small but significant relationship with lightness of the iris, in that the eye with the smaller pupil was associated with the lighter iris. There was a strong association between anisocoria and a local region of chromosome 13 (13q32.1), a region lying between the genes GPR180 and SOX21 . The strongest association was with the single-nucleotide polymorphism rs9524583., Conclusion: The very specific region associated with anisocoria is one where microdeletions (or microduplications) are known to lead to abnormal development of pupil dilator muscle and hence to the autosomal dominant condition of microcoria. It is possible that alterations at 13q32.1 act by altering the expression of SOX21 , which encodes a nuclear transcription factor., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: The protective effects of allopurinol on physical function in older adults are not well understood, despite its potential to improve functional gains and reduce sarcopenia. This study aims to determine the association between allopurinol, persistent physical disability, and frailty in older gout patients., Methods: This analysis used data from a randomized trial in an older cohort, ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE). ASPREE recruited 19,114 participants aged ≥65 years without prior cardiovascular events, dementia, or independence-limiting physical disability at trial enrolment. This analysis examined the association of baseline and time-varying allopurinol use with persistent physical disability and new-onset frailty in participants with gout at baseline (self-report or use of any anti-gout medications). Frailty was measured using the Fried frailty phenotype (score ≥3/5) and a deficit accumulation frailty index (FI) (score >0.21/1.0). Multivariable Cox proportional-hazards models were used for main analyses., Results: This analysis included 1155 gout participants, with 630 taking allopurinol at baseline and 525 not. During a median follow-up of 5.7 years, 113 new allopurinol users were identified. Compared with nonusers, baseline allopurinol use was associated with a significant risk reduction of persistent physical disability (Adjusted HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.23-0.92, p = 0.03). The strength of the association was modestly attenuated in the time-varying analysis (Adjusted HR 0.56, 0.29-1.08, p = 0.08). No significant associations with frailty measures were observed for either baseline allopurinol use (Fried frailty: Adjusted HR 0.83, 0.62-1.12; FI: Adjusted HR 0.96, 0.74-1.24) or time-varying allopurinol use (Fried frailty: Adjusted HR 0.92, 0.69-1.24; FI: Adjusted HR 1.02, 0.78-1.33)., Conclusions: Allopurinol use in older adults with gout is associated with a reduced risk of persistent physical disability but not associated with risk of frailty., (© 2023 The American Geriatrics Society.)

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the greatest contributor to global morbidity and mortality. Poor social health plays a critical role in CVD incidence. Additionally, the relationship between social health and CVD may be mediated through CVD risk factors. However, the underlying mechanisms between social health and CVD are poorly understood. Certain social health constructs (social isolation, low social support and loneliness) have complicated the characterisation of a causal relationship between social health and CVD., Aim: To provide an overview of the relationship between social health and CVD (and its shared risk factors)., Method: In this narrative review, we examined published literature on the relationship between three social health constructs (social isolation, social support, and loneliness) and CVD. Evidence was synthesised in a narrative format, focusing on the potential ways in which social health affects CVD, including shared risk factors., Results: The current literature highlights an established relationship between social health and CVD with a likelihood for bi-directionality. However, there is speculation and varied evidence regarding how these relationships may be mediated through CVD risk factors., Conclusions: Social health can be considered an established risk factor for CVD. However, the potential bi-directional pathways of social health with CVD risk factors are less established. Further research is needed to understand whether targeting certain constructs of social health may directly improve the management of CVD risk factors. Given the health and economic burdens of poor social health and CVD, improvements to addressing or preventing these interrelated health conditions would have societal benefits., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest Authors declare that they have no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Dietary supplement and complementary and alternative medication (CAM) use can contribute to drug interactions, polypharmacy, nonadherence with prescription medications, and healthcare expenses, whereas evidence supporting benefits of using these products is sparse. There is a lack of current published literature describing the patterns or predictors of their use in community-dwelling older adults., Materials and Methods: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of community-dwelling adults from Australia and the US, aged 70 years and older (65 years for US minorities), enrolled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study. At study enrollment, eligible participants were required to be without concurrent 5-year life-limiting illness and free of documented evidence of cardiovascular disease, dementia, or significant physical disability. During the final study visit, a questionnaire was administered to collect information about supplement/CAM use. Data from 15,729 participants who completed this questionnaire between January 2017 and January 2018 were analyzed. Descriptive statistics were used to report the prevalence and types of products used. Factors associated with use were determined using multivariate regression., Results: Mean age of respondents was 79.6 years; 56.4% were female, 88.8% were from Australia, 56.5% reported 12 years of education or less, and 98.7% were living at home. Two-thirds (66.2%) of participants reported use of one or more supplement/CAM in the previous month. Products most commonly used included vitamin D (33.8% of participants), fish oil (22.7%), calcium (20.6%), glucosamine (14.8%), and multivitamin (12.9%). Female sex, US residency, higher education, polypharmacy (prescription medications), and frailty (in women) were significantly associated with higher use of supplements/CAMs., Conclusions: Dietary supplement and CAM use is common among community-dwelling older adults in the United States and Australia. Given the high prevalence of use, collaboration between healthcare providers and older adult patients is important to insure safe and optimal use of these products., (© 2023 The Authors. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The American Geriatrics Society.)

Background: We aimed to describe the self-reported level of eyesight amongst a cohort of relatively healthy older Australian adults, and to investigate associations between poorer self-rated eyesight and demographic, health, and functional characteristics METHODS: The ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP) study was embedded in a multisite trial which recruited independently living Australians from general practices (2010-2014). Self-rated eyesight was recorded on a paper-based questionnaire as Excellent, Good, Fair, Poor, Very poor, or Completely blind at the baseline study wave RESULTS: Data from 14 592 participants (aged 70-95 years, 54.61% female) were included in this cross-sectional analysis. Eighty percent of participants reported excellent or good eyesight (n = 11 677). People with complete blindness were precluded from enrolling but 299 participants (2.0%) reported poor or very poor eyesight, and 2616 rated their eyesight as fair (17.9%). Lower levels of eyesight were associated with being older, female, fewer years of formal education, a primary language other than English, smoking, and self-reported macular degeneration, glaucoma, retinopathy, cataracts, and hearing problems (each p ≤ 0.021). People with lower levels of eyesight had a higher number of falls, frailty characteristics, and depressive symptoms, and lower mental and physical health functioning scores (each p < 0.001) CONCLUSIONS: Whilst most of these healthy older Australians reported good or excellent eyesight, a notable minority reported poor or very poor eyesight, and this was associated with a range of poorer health measures. These findings support the need for additional resources to prevent vision loss and associated sequelae., (© 2023 The Authors. Clinical & Experimental Ophthalmology published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.)

Objective: To identify the socio-demographic, lifestyle, and clinical characteristics associated with self-reported weight status in early (age 18 years) and late (age ≥ 70 years) adulthood., Methods: The number of participants was 11,288, who were relatively healthy community-dwelling Australian adults aged ≥70 years (mean age 75.1 ± 4.2 years) in the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP) sub-study. Self-reported weight at the study baseline (age ≥ 70 years) and recalled weight at age 18 years were collected. Height measured at baseline was used to calculate the BMI at both time points. Individuals were categorised into one of five 'lifetime' weight status groups: healthy weight (at both age 18 year and ≥70 years), overweight (at either or both times), non-obese (age 18 year) to obesity (age ≥70 years), obesity (age 18 years) to non-obese (age ≥ 70 years), and early and later life obesity (at age 18 years and ≥70 years)., Results: Participants who experienced obesity in early and/or late adulthood were at a higher risk of adverse clinical characteristics. Obesity in late adulthood (regardless of early adulthood weight status) was associated with high proportions of hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidaemia, whereas obesity in early adulthood (regardless of late adulthood weight status) was associated with lower cognitive scores (on all four measures)., Discussion/conclusion: Healthy or overweight weight status in early and later adulthood was associated with more favourable socioeconomic, lifestyle, and clinical measures. Obesity in early adulthood was associated with lower cognitive function in later adulthood, whereas obesity in later adulthood was associated with hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidaemia.

Objectives: The extent to which body weight in early adulthood is associated with late-life mortality risk is unclear. This study aimed to determine the association between body mass index (BMI) in early adulthood (at 18 years of age) and older age (70 years and over), and the risk of mortality in later life., Design: Secondary analysis of the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP)., Setting, Participants: Data were from 14,853 relatively healthy community-dwelling Australians aged ≥ 70 years when enrolled in the study., Measurements: Self-reported weight at age ≥ 70 years and recalled weight at age 18 years were collected at ALSOP study baseline. Height was measured with a stadiometer and was used for calculation of BMI at both timepoints. BMI at each timepoint was defined as: underweight, normal weight, overweight and obese. Individuals were categorised into one of five 'lifetime' BMI groups: normal weight (BMI between 18.5 and 24.9 at both times), overweight (25.0-29.9 at either or both times), obesity to non-obese (≥30.0 at age 18 and <30.0 ≥ 70 years), non-obese to obesity (<30.0 at age 18 and ≥30.0 at age ≥ 70 years), and early and later life obesity (≥30.0 at both times)., Results: During a median 4.7 years follow-up, 715 deaths occurred. Obesity at 18 years, but not in older age (p=0.44), was significantly associated with the risk of mortality in later life, even after accounting for current health status (HR: 2.35, 95% CI: 1.53-3.58, p<0.001). Compared with participants with normal BMI at both time points, being obese at both time points was associated with increased mortality risk (HR=1.99, 95% CI: 1.04-3.81, p=0.03), and the risk was even greater for individuals who were obese at 18 years but were no longer obese in older age (HR=2.92, 95% CI: 1.65-5.16, p<0.001), in fully adjusted models. Participants who were normal weight at 18 years and were obese in later life, did not have an increased mortality risk (p=0.78)., Conclusions: Obesity in early adulthood, and obesity in both early and later life, were associated with increased mortality risk in later life. This highlights the importance of preventing obesity in early adulthood and maintaining a normal weight over an adult lifespan., Competing Interests: The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

In this cross-sectional analysis of 10,071 community dwelling adults aged ≥70 years, we examined factors associated with meal skipping (self-reported) using multivariable logistic regression. Prevalence of meal skipping in this study was 19.5%. The adjusted odds (aOR [95%CI]) of meal skipping were lower in those 85+ years (vs. 70-74.9 years, 0.56 [0.45-0.70]), and in those in regional areas (vs. urban area, 0.81 [0.72-0.92]). Higher odds of meal skipping were observed for those living alone (vs. living with someone, 1.84 [1.64-2.05]), current smokers (vs. non-smokers, 2.07 [1.54-2.80]), consumers of high amounts of alcohol (vs. abstainers 1.93 [1.35-2.75]), those with poor oral health (vs. excellent oral health, 1.71 [1.07 -2.73]) diabetes (vs. not 1.26 [1.06-1.50]), or frailty (vs. not, 1.63 [1.09-2.43]). This study identified socio-demographic, social, behavioural and biomedical correlates of meal skipping in later life, which may assist in targeting interventions to address meal skipping., Competing Interests: The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. The ASPREE study was supported by a grant (UA01AG029824 and U19AG062682) from the National Institute on Aging and the National Cancer Institute at the National Institutes of Health, and by grants (334047 and 1127060) from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, by Monash University and the Victorian Cancer Agency. The ALSOP sub-study was supported by Monash University and an unencumbered grant from the Wicking Trust. JR is supported by NHMRC Dementia Research Leader Fellowship (1135727). MB is supported by NHMRC Senior Principal Research Fellowships 1059660and 1156072.

Background: Statins are widely prescribed for the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but their effectiveness is dependent on the level of adherence and persistence., Objectives: This study aimed to explore the patterns of switching, adherence and persistence among the Australian general population with newly dispensed statins., Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using a random sample of data from the Australian national prescription claims data. Switching, adherence to and persistence with statins were assessed for people starting statins from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2019. Switching was defined as either switching to another intensity of statin, to another statin or to a non-statin agent. Non-persistence to treatment was defined as discontinuation (i.e. ≥90 days with no statin) of coverage. Adherence was measured using proportion of days covered (PDC), and patients with PDC < 0.80 were considered non-adherent. Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare discontinuation, switching and reinitiation between different statins., Results: A cohort of 141,062 people dispensed statins and followed over a median duration of 2.5 years were included. Of the cohort, 29.3% switched statin intensity, 28.4% switched statin type, 3.7% switched to ezetimibe and in 2.7%, ezetimibe was added as combination therapy during the study period. Overall, 58.8% discontinued statins based on the 90-day gap criteria, of whom 55.2% restarted. The proportion of people non-adherent was 24.0% at 6 months to 49.0% at 5 years. People on low and moderate intensity statins were more likely to discontinue compared to those on high-intensity statins (hazard ratio [HR] 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.31), (HR 1.28, 95%CI 1.14-1.42), respectively. Compared to maintaining same statin type and intensity, switching statins, which includes up-titration (HR 0.77, 95%CI 0.70 to 0.86) was associated with less likelihood of discontinuation after reinitiation., Conclusions: Long-term persistence and adherence to statins remains generally poor among Australians, which limits the effectiveness of these medicines and the consequent health impact they may provide for individuals (and by extension, the population impact when poor persistence and adherence is considered in the statin-taking population). Switching between statins is prevalent in one third of statin users, although any clinical benefit of the observed switching trend is unknown. This, combined with the high volume of statin prescriptions, highlights the need for better strategies to address poor persistence and adherence., (© 2021. Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.)

Background/objectives: Obesity poses one of the biggest public health challenges globally. In addition to the high costs of obesity to the healthcare system, obesity also impacts work productivity. We aimed to estimate the benefits of preventing obesity in terms of years of life, productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs) and associated costs over 10 years., Subjects/methods: Dynamic life table models were constructed to estimate years of life and PALYs saved if all new cases of obesity were prevented among Australians aged 20-69 years from 2021 to 2030. Life tables were sex specific and the population was classified into normal weight, overweight and obese. The model simulation was first undertaken assuming currently observed age-specific incidences of obesity, and then repeated assuming all new cases of obesity were reduced by 2 and 5%. The differences in outcomes (years of life, PALYs, and costs) between the two modelled outputs reflected the potential benefits that could be achieved through obesity prevention. All outcomes were discounted by 5% per annum., Results: Over the next 10 years, 132 million years of life and 81 million PALYs would be lived by Australians aged 20-69 years, contributing AU$17.0 trillion to the Australian economy in terms of GDP. A 5% reduction in new cases of obesity led to a gain of 663 years of life and 1229 PALYs, equivalent to AU$262 million in GDP., Conclusions: Prevention of obesity is projected to result in substantial economic gains due to improved health and productivity. This further emphasises the need for public health prevention strategies to reduce this growing epidemic., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Later life changes in body weight may be associated with an increased risk of mortality in older adults. The objective of this study was to examine whether weight change over four years was associated with a 17-year mortality risk in older adults. Participants were 1664 community-dwelling adults aged ≥65 years in the longitudinal Enquete de Sante’ Psychologique-Risques, Incidence et Traitement (ESPRIT) study. Outcomes were all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer mortality. Weight change was defined as difference between weight at baseline and 4 years, categorised into: weight stable (±<5% weight change), weight loss (≥5%) and weight gain (≥5%). Association between weight change and mortality risk was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models. Over 17 years of follow-up (median 15 years), 565 participants died. Compared to stable weight participants, those with ≥ 5% weight loss had an increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.00−1.56, p = 0.05) and CVD mortality (HR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.10−2.14, p = 0.01), but not cancer mortality (HR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.50−1.39, p = 0.49). Weight gain of ≥5% was not associated with increased mortality (HR: 1.05, 95% CI: 0.76−1.45, p = 0.74). Weight monitoring in older adults could help identify weight loss at its early stages to better target interventions to maintain nutritional reserve and prevent premature mortality.

A tacit understanding of the influence of healthy eating on chronic disease risk and quality of life among older adults is essential for successful design and roll-out of healthy ageing policies. Existing research on dietary determinants among older adults is largely outdated owing to the changing geopolitical scenarios including advancements in health and technology and global migration. Studies published between 2000 and 2020 that explored determinants of diet in older adults were identified using five databases, following Preferred Reporting of Systematic review and Meta-Analyses extended for Scoping Review (PRISMA ScR) guidelines. The final 51 studies (25 quantitative, 22 qualitative and 4 mixed methods) were analysed and interpreted to corroborate existing evidence and identify research gaps. The review identified past influences including childhood affluence and future apprehensions regarding loss of independence and fear of disability to be major drivers of food choices. Current socio-economic status, health conditions and cultural contexts were congruent with past and future influences, implying the role of behavioural change programmes in early life to achieve long term health goals for older adults., (Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Background and Aims: A better understanding of the relationship between cardiovascular disease risk factors and quality of life (QoL) in older age is needed to inform development of risk reduction strategies. This cross-sectional study investigated the association of QoL with health-related behaviours in older adults at risk of heart failure., Methods and Results: Older adults (N = 328) at risk of heart failure residing in Melbourne, Australia, provided data on QoL and health-related behaviours including physical activity, diet, smoking and alcohol consumption. Multiple linear regression modelling was used to examine associations between health-related behaviours, QoL and its constituent domains. After adjustment for age, gender, body mass index and comorbidities, current smoking was found to have a negative association with the mental component score (MCS) of QoL (β = -0.174, p ≤ 0.01), with a positive association seen between MCS and physical activity (β = 0.130, p = 0.01). Current alcohol use had a positive association with the physical component score (PCS) (β = 0.120, p = 0.02) and saturated fat intake consumption had a negative association with the physical functioning domain of QoL (β = -0.105, p = 0.03) but was not associated with either PCS or MCS., Conclusion: Engagement of older adults at increased cardiovascular risk with behavioural risk factor modification using QoL as a driver of change may offer new opportunities to promote healthy ageing. Development of such strategies should consider that for some behaviours which are cardiovascular risk factors (alcohol intake, in particular), the positive association to QoL is complicated and needs further deliberation., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare., (Copyright © 2022 The Italian Diabetes Society, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: Physical health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is associated with adverse health outcomes, including hospitalizations and all-cause mortality. However, little is known about how physical HRQoL changes over time in older people and the predictors of this trajectory. This study (a) identified trajectories of physical HRQoL among older people and (b) explored whether economic factors, social health or stressful life events impact physical HRQoL trajectories., Method: A cohort of 12,506 relatively 'healthy' community-dwelling Australians aged ≥ 70 years (54.4% females), enrolled in the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP) study and was followed for six years. Economic factors, social health and life events in the last 12 months were assessed through a questionnaire at baseline. Physical HRQoL was measured by using the 12-item short form at baseline and annual follow-ups. Growth mixture and structural equation modelling were used to identify physical HRQoL trajectories and their predictors., Results: Four physical HRQoL trajectories were identified-stable low (7.1%), declining (9.0%), stable intermediate (17.9%) and stable high (66.0%). Living in more disadvantaged areas, having a lower household income, no paid work, no voluntary work, loneliness and stressful life events (i.e. spousal illness, friend/family illness, financial problem) were associated with a 10%-152% higher likelihood of being in the stable low or declining physical HRQoL trajectory than the stable high group., Conclusion: Specific stressful life events had a greater impact on adverse physical HRQoL trajectories in older people than other factors. Volunteering may prevent physical HRQoL decline and requires further investigation., (© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Background: There is limited evidence about lifetime burden of child malnutrition. This study aimed to estimate the lifetime impact of being underweight or overweight/obese during childhood in Vietnam., Methods: We developed a life table model in combination with a Markov model for Vietnamese children aged 5-19 years and simulated until they reached 75 years of age or died using published data. The starting year was 2019 and the model estimated number of deaths, years of life lived and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) with an annual discount rate of 3%. We performed scenario, one-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of uncertainties in input parameters., Results: The model estimated 9.68 million deaths (6.44 million men and 3.24 million women), 622 million years of life lived (317 million men and 305 million women), and 601 million QALYs (308 million men and 293 million women). Scenario analyses showed that the reduction in either underweight or overweight/obesity alone, and reduction in both underweight and overweight/obesity resulted in fewer deaths, more years of life lived and more QALYs gained. In the scenario where everyone was a healthy weight, the model estimated 577,267 fewer deaths (6.0% less), 2 million more years of life lived (0.3% more), and 3 million QALYs gained (0.6% more) over base-case results which represents current situation in Vietnam., Conclusions: Our results suggest that addressing underweight and overweight/obesity will contribute to reducing deaths and increasing years of life lived and QALYs. Policies and interventions in alignment with Sustainable Development Goals to address underweight and overweight/obesity are necessary to achieve health for all., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Study Objective: What is the association between anticholinergic burden and specific domains of cognitive function in older adults who are initially without major cognitive impairment?, Design: Post-hoc analysis of longitudinal observational data from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study., Patients: 19,114 participants from Australia and the United States aged 70 years and older (65 years and older for US minorities) were recruited and followed for a median of 4.7 years. At enrollment, participants were free of known cardiovascular disease, major physical disability, or dementia., Measurements: Cognitive assessments administered at baseline and biennially at follow-up visits included the Modified Mini-Mental State examination (3MS), Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised (HVLT-R) delayed recall, Controlled Oral Word Association Test (COWAT), and Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT). Anticholinergic burden was calculated at baseline using the Anticholinergic Cognitive Burden (ACB) scale and grouped as scores of 0 (no burden), 1-2 (low to moderate), or 3+ (high)., Main Results: Linear mixed effects models were used to assess the relationship between ACB score and cognition over time. After adjusting for sex, age, education, minority status, smoking status, hypertension, diabetes, depression, chronic kidney disease, country, and frailty, participants with a high ACB score had worse performance over time for 3MS (Adjusted [Adj] B=-0.092, P=0.034), HVLT-R delayed recall (Adj B=-0.104, P<0.001), COWAT (Adj B=-0.151, P<0.001), and SDMT (Adj B=-0.129, P=0.026), than participants with an ACB score of 0. A low to moderate ACB score was also associated with worse performance over time for HVLT-R delayed recall (Adj B=-0.037, P=0.007) and COWAT (Adj B=-0.065, P=0.003), compared to those with no ACB., Conclusions: Anticholinergic burden predicts worse cognitive function over time in initially dementia-free older adults, particularly for executive function (COWAT) and episodic memory (HVLT-R)., (© 2021 Pharmacotherapy Publications, Inc.)

Background and Aims: Associations between overweight/obesity and television (TV) viewing have been identified in high-income countries, but little evidence is available from low- and middle-income countries. This study examined the trends and correlates of television viewing and overweight/obesity among Nepalese women between 2006 and 2016., Methods and Results: We analysed the data from 22,161 women aged 15-49 years who took part in Nepal Demographic Health Surveys 2006 (n = 10,115), 2011 (n = 5,881) or 2016 (n = 6,165). Trained staff collected data on TV viewing and sociodemographic attributes from a face-to-face survey while height and weight were measured objectively to determine body mass index. Around 38% of the study participants watched TV at least once a week in 2006, which increased to 49% in 2011 and 46% in 2016. The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased from 8% in 2006 to 14.6% in 2011 and 19.8% in 2016. Compared to those who did not watch TV at all, those watching it at least once a week were at 1.54 (95% CI: 1.02-2.33), 1.79 (95% CI: 1.23-2.60) and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.13-1.88) times higher odds of being overweight/obese in 2006, 2011 and 2016 respectively., Conclusion: The prevalence of TV viewing rose among women in Nepal between 2006 and 2016 and was associated with overweight/obesity, which also increased dramatically over this period. Future studies examining the use of multiple screen devices, daily usage duration and content viewed are recommended to understand better the health impacts of transitions to more sedentary living in Nepal and similar settings., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2021 The Italian Diabetes Society, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Aims: Risk factors for asymptomatic echocardiographic abnormalities that predict symptomatic heart failure (HF) may provide insight into early mechanisms of HF pathogenesis. We examined risk factors associated with asymptomatic echocardiographic structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities, separately and in combination, and interactions between risk factors, in the prospective community-based SCReening Evaluation of the Evolution of New HF (SCREEN-HF) Study cohort of 3190 participants at increased risk of cardiovascular disease., Methods and Results: Inclusion criteria were age ≥ 60 years with one or more of hypertension, diabetes, ischaemic heart disease, valvular heart disease, abnormal heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease, or renal impairment. Exclusion criteria were known HF, ejection fraction < 50%, or >mild valve abnormality. Structural, systolic, and diastolic echocardiographic abnormalities were defined according to the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study criteria, and risk factors for asymptomatic structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities were identified using logistic regression analysis. In multivariable analysis, increased body mass index (BMI), non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug therapy, and alcohol intake were risk factors for isolated structural abnormality, whereas male gender, increased heart rate, atrial fibrillation (AF), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor therapy, and obstructive sleep apnoea were associated with a lower risk. Moreover, male gender, smoking, increased systolic blood pressure, and physical inactivity were risk factors for isolated systolic abnormality, whereas increased pulse pressure and antihypertensive therapy were associated with a lower risk. Furthermore, increased age, blood pressure, amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level, and warfarin therapy (associated with AF) were risk factors for isolated diastolic abnormality, whereas increased heart rate and triglyceride level (associated with BMI) were associated with a lower risk. The association of increased heart rate with lower risk of structural and diastolic abnormalities was independent of β-blocker therapy. Interactions between risk factors differed for structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities., Conclusions: The different risk factors for asymptomatic structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities that predict symptomatic HF, and the interactions between risk factors, illustrate how these structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities represent unique trajectories that lead to symptomatic HF. Improved understanding of these trajectories may assist in the design of HF prevention strategies., (© 2021 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology.)

Objectives: The objectives of this study were to examine whether weight loss, weight status (based on body mass index [BMI] categories), and abdominal obesity (based on waist circumference [WC]) were associated with a 17-year mortality risk in community-dwelling older adults., Methods: Participants were 2,017 community-dwelling adults aged 65 years or above in the longitudinal Enquête de Santé Psychologique-Risques, Incidence et Traitement study. Self-reported weight loss was collected at baseline during face-to-face interviews. Bodyweight (kg), height (m), and WC (cm) were independently measured at the baseline. BMI was categorized as follows: underweight (BMI <18.5 kg/m2), normal weight (18.5-24.9 kg/m2), overweight (25-29.9 kg/m2), and obese (≥30 kg/m2). Abdominal obesity was defined by a WC of ≥102 cm in men and ≥88 cm in women. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine associations of weight loss, weight status, and abdominal obesity with all-cause mortality., Results: Over 17 years of follow-up (median 15.5 years), 812 participants died. Abdominal obesity compared to nonabdominal obesity was associated with a 49% increased mortality risk (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.22-1.83). However, being overweight (but not obese) was associated with a 20% decreased risk (95% CI: 0.66-0.97) compared to a normal BMI. Gender did not affect these associations. In the whole cohort, self-reported weight loss at baseline was not associated with an increased mortality risk after adjusting for health and lifestyle factors. However, in men, a baseline self-reported recent weight loss of >3 kg was associated with a 52% increase in mortality risk (95% CI: 1.05-2.18) in a fully adjusted model., Conclusion: In community-dwelling adults aged ≥65 years, abdominal obesity was strongly associated with increased mortality risk. Being overweight appeared, however, to be protective against mortality. Modest self-reported weight loss was not associated with all-cause mortality in community-dwelling older adults after adjusting for health and lifestyle factors. However, men reporting recent weight loss of more than 3 kg may be at increased risk. The findings of this study support the use of WC, rather than BMI, as a predictor of mortality risk in older adults., (© 2022 The Author(s). Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.)

Background: Poor social health is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Recent research suggests that different social health domains should be considered separately as the implications for health and possible interventions may differ., Aim: To assess social isolation, low social support and loneliness as predictors of CVD., Methods: Secondary analysis of 11,486 community-dwelling, Australians, aged 70 years and over, free of CVD, dementia, or significant physical disability, from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial. Social isolation, social support (Revised Lubben Social Network Scale), and loneliness were assessed as predictors of CVD using Cox proportional-hazard regression. CVD events included fatal CVD, heart failure hospitalization, myocardial infarction and stroke. Analyses were adjusted for established CVD risk factors., Results: Individuals with poor social health were 42 % more likely to develop CVD (p = 0.01) and twice as likely to die from CVD (p = 0.02) over a median 4.5 years follow-up. Interaction effects indicated that poorer social health more strongly predicted CVD in smokers (HR 4.83, p = 0.001, p-interaction = 0.01), major city dwellers (HR 1.94, p < 0.001, p-interaction=0.03), and younger older adults (70-75 years; HR 2.12, p < 0.001, p-interaction = 0.01). Social isolation (HR 1.66, p = 0.04) and low social support (HR 2.05, p = 0.002), but not loneliness (HR 1.4, p = 0.1), predicted incident CVD. All measures of poor social health predicted ischemic stroke (HR 1.73 to 3.16)., Conclusions: Among healthy older adults, social isolation and low social support may be more important than loneliness as cardiovascular risk factors. Social health domains should be considered in future CVD risk prediction models., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Objective: Diabetes increases the risk of premature mortality and considerably impacts on work productivity. We sought to examine the impact of diabetes in India, in terms of excess premature mortality, years of life lost (YLL), productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs) lost, and its associated economic impact., Research Design and Methods: A life table model was constructed to examine the productivity of the Indian working-age population currently aged 20-59 years with diabetes, followed until death or retirement age (60 years). The same cohort was resimulated, hypothetically assuming that they did not have diabetes. The total difference between the two cohorts, in terms of excess deaths, YLL and PALYs lost reflected the impact of diabetes. Data regarding the prevalence of diabetes, mortality, labor force dropouts, and productivity loss attributable to diabetes were derived from published sources., Results: In 2017, an estimated 54.4 million (7.6%) people of working-age in India had diabetes. With simulated follow-up until death or retirement age, diabetes was predicted to cause 8.5 million excess deaths (62.7% of all deaths), 42.7 million YLL (7.4% of total estimated years of life lived), and 89.0 million PALYs lost (23.3% of total estimated PALYs), equating to an estimated Indian rupee 176.6 trillion (U.S. dollars 2.6 trillion; purchasing power parity 9.8 trillion) in lost gross domestic product., Conclusions: Our study demonstrates the impact of diabetes on productivity loss and highlights the importance of health strategies aimed at the prevention of diabetes., (© 2021 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Background: Social health reflects one's ability to form interpersonal relationships. Poor social health is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), however an in-depth exploration of the link through CVD risk factors is lacking., Aim: To examine the relationship between social health (social isolation, social support, loneliness) and CVD risk factors among healthy older women and men., Methods: Data were from 11,498 healthy community-dwelling Australians aged ≥70 years from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial and the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons sub-study. Ten-year CVD risk was estimated using the Atherosclerotic CVD Risk Scale (ASCVDRS) and the Framingham Risk Score (FRS)., Results: Physical inactivity and experiencing depressive symptoms were the only CVD risk factors that consistently differed by all three social health constructs. Loneliness was associated with greater ASCVDRS (women: β = 0.01, p < 0.05; men: β = 0.03, p < 0.001), social isolation with greater FRS (women: β = 0.02, p < 0.01; men: β = 0.03, p < 0.01) and the social health composite of being lonely (regardless of social isolation and/or social support status) with greater ASCVDRS (women: β = 0.01, p = 0.02; men: β = 0.03, p < 0.001). Among men, loneliness was also associated with greater FRS (β = 0.03, p < 0.001) and social support with greater ASCVDRS (β = 0.02, p = 0.01). Men were more socially isolated, less socially supported and less lonely than women., Conclusion: Social isolation, social support and loneliness displayed diverse relationships with CVD risk factors and risk scores, emphasising the importance of distinguishing between these constructs. These findings inform on potential avenues to manage poor social health and CVD risk among older adults., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Purpose: Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a rare hematologic malignancy accounting for 0.8% of new cancer diagnoses in Australia. High mortality and morbidity affect work productivity through workforce dropout and premature death. This study sought to estimate the productivity loss attributable to AML in the Australian population over 10 years and to estimate the costs of this productivity loss. Productivity was measured using productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs), a similar concept to quality-adjusted life years, but adjusts for the productivity loss attributable to disease, rather than impaired health., Materials and Methods: Dynamic life tables modeled the Australian working population (age 15-65 years) between 2020 and 2029. The model population had two cohorts: those with and without AML. Differences in life years, PALYs, and costs represented the health and productivity impact of AML. Secondary analyses evaluated the impact of different scenarios., Results: Over the next 10 years, there will be 7,600 years of life lost and 7,337 PALYs lost because of AML, amounting to Australian dollars (AU$) 1.43 billion in lost gross domestic product ($971 million in US dollars). Secondary analyses highlight potential savings of approximately AU$52 million if survival rates were improved by 20% and almost AU$118 million in savings if the return-to-work rates increased by 20% on the current estimates., Conclusion: Our study demonstrates that even in low-incidence cancer, high mortality and morbidity translate to profound impacts on years of life, productivity, and the broader economy. Better treatment strategies are likely to result in significant economic gains. This highlights the value of investing in research for improved therapies., Competing Interests: Danny LiewConsulting or Advisory Role: Novartis, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, CSL BehringResearch Funding: AmgenTravel, Accommodations, Expenses: Novartis Andrew WeiHonoraria: Amgen, Servier, Novartis, Celgene, Abbvie/Genentech, Pfizer, Janssen Oncology, Astellas Pharma, Macrogenics, AstraZenecaConsulting or Advisory Role: Servier, Novartis, Amgen, Abbvie/Genentech, Celgene, Macrogenics, Pfizer, Astellas Pharma, AstraZeneca, JanssenSpeakers' Bureau: Abbvie/Genentech, Novartis, Celgene/Bristol Myers SquibbResearch Funding: Novartis, Celgene, Abbvie, AstraZeneca, Servier, Amgen, RochePatents, Royalties, Other Intellectual Property: A.W. is a former employee of the Walter and Eliza Hall Institute which receives milestone and royalty payments related to venetoclax, and is eligible for benefits related to these payments. A.W. receives payments from WEHI related to venetoclax Ella ZomerConsulting or Advisory Role: Amgen, AstraZeneca, Pfizer, ShireNo other potential conflicts of interest were reported.

Objectives: Mis-reporting is common in dietary assessment, leading to misinterpretation of disease risk and could be important in older adults with increased chronic disease risk. This study investigated the prevalence and characteristics of mis-reporting among older adults and its association with health outcomes including quality of life (QoL)., Methods: The study was conducted in 335 community-dwelling older adults at increased risk for cardiovascular disease, participating in the SCReening Evaluation of the Evolution of New Heart Failure Study dietary substudy. Diet was assessed using 4-day weighed food diaries, QoL measured through Short Form 36, and physical activity assessed using the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition physical activity questionnaire. Dietary mis-reporting was defined based on Goldberg cutoffs, using individual physical activity levels. Odds ratios were determined to establish associations between mis-reporting and health outcomes., Results: The prevalence of mis-reporting among older adults was 49.3%, with 44.5% of women mis-reporting their energy intake. The study found under-reporting of energy to be associated with body mass index, specifically being overweight (odds ratio: 3.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.54-6.15) and obese (odds ratio: 6.60; 95% CI, 3.05-4.26), as well as physical inactivity (odds ratio: 0.24; 95% CI, 0.14-0.43). Only physical inactivity predicted over-reporting of dietary intake (odds ratio: 7.52; 95% CI, 1.57-36.0)., Conclusions: Dietary under-reporting was associated with being overweight, obese, and physically inactive in addition to the absence of comorbidities, reinforcing the need for further research in older adults to factor in dietary mis-reporting for meaningful diet-disease relationship analyses., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Aim: To assess the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin in addition to standard care versus standard care alone in patients with chronic heart failure and reduced ejection fraction., Methods: A Markov model was constructed based on the Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure trial to assess the clinical outcomes and costs of 1000 hypothetical subjects with established heart failure and reduced ejection fraction. The model consisted of three health states: 'alive and event-free', 'alive after non-fatal hospitalisation for heart failure' and 'dead'. Costs and utilities were estimated from published sources. The main outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life-year gained. An Australian public healthcare perspective was employed. All outcomes and costs were discounted at a rate of 5% annually., Results: Over a lifetime horizon, the addition of dapagliflozin to standard care in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction prevented 88 acute heart failure hospitalisations (including readmissions) and yielded an additional 416 years of life and 288 quality-adjusted life-years (discounted) at an additional cost of A$3,692,440 (discounted). This equated to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of A$12,482 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, well below the Australian willingness-to-pay threshold of A$50,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Subanalyses in subjects with and without diabetes resulted in similar incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of A$13,234 and A$12,386 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively., Conclusion: Dapagliflozin is likely to be cost-effective when used as an adjunct therapy to standard care compared with standard care alone for the treatment of chronic heart failure and reduced ejection fraction., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2020. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: With economic and social changes, participation in occupational and transport-related physical activity is declining among Nepalese adults, highlighting the growing importance of leisure-time physical activity. However, limited information is available to guide public health policies and interventions to promote leisure-time physical activity in Nepal. This study aimed to qualitatively explore the socioecological influences of participation in leisure-time physical activity among Nepalese adults aged 40 years and above., Methods: A total of 51 adults (30 females and 21 males) participated in one of the nine focus groups conducted in Kathmandu, Nepal. A semi-structured guide based on the social-ecological model of physical activity was used to facilitate these focus groups. Data were analysed using a reflexive thematic analysis approach in NVivo 12., Results: Participation in leisure-time physical activity was minimal and leisure time was mostly spent resting, socialising, or engaging in sedentary activities such as watching television. Walking was the most common form of leisure-time physical activity, and men reported being more active than women. Individual-level barriers included lack of knowledge, lack of skill, lack of motivation, considering oneself as sufficiently active and engagement in sedentary screen activities. Family and household responsibilities, lack of support and fear of being judged constituted the interpersonal barriers while environmental barriers included an absence of a supportive social norm, lack of open spaces, weather conditions and perceived lack of safety. Health benefits, prioritising physical activity, social support, provision of group-based activities and age-appropriate public exercise facilities were identified as major facilitators., Conclusion: Critical issues that need to be addressed to increase leisure-time physical activity among Nepalese adults include traditional gender roles, family and social support, and social norms. Modifications of the built environment, such as public exercise facilities, offer further opportunities and will require coordination beyond the health sector., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Objective: Evaluate the Pain Impact Index, a simple, brief, easy-to-use, and novel tool to assess the impact of chronic pain in community-dwelling older adults., Methods: A Rasch modelling analysis was undertaken in Stata using a partial credit model suited to the Likert-type items that comprised the Index. The Index was evaluated for ordering of category thresholds, unidimensionality, overall fit to the Rasch model, measurement bias (Differential Item Functioning, DIF), targeting, and construct validity., Results: The four-item Pain Impact Index was self-completed by 6454 community-dwelling Australians who were aged at least 70 years and experienced pain on most days. Two items showed evidence of threshold disordering, and this was resolved by collapsing response categories (from 5 to 3) for all items. The rescored Index conformed to the unidimensionality assumption and had satisfactory fit with the Rasch model (analyses conducted on a reduced sample size to mitigate the potential for overpowering: n = 377, P > 0.0125, power > 77%). When considering uniform DIF, the most frequent sources of measurement bias were age, knee pain, and upper back pain. When considering nonuniform DIF, the most frequent source of measurement bias was knee pain. The Index had good ability to differentiate between respondents with different levels of pain impact and had highest measurement precision for respondents located around the average level of pain impact in the study sample. Both convergent and discriminant validity of the Index were supported., Conclusion: The Pain Impact Index showed evidence of unidimensionality, was able to successfully differentiate between levels of pain impact, and had good evidence of construct validity., (© 2020 World Institute of Pain.)

Aims: To determine the impact of preventing new (incident) cases of coronary heart disease (CHD) on years of life and productivity, using the novel measure 'productivity-adjusted life year' (PALY), over the next 10 years., Methods and Results: A dynamic life table model was constructed for the total Australian working-age population (15-69 years) over 10 years (2020-2029), separated by CHD status. Productivity estimates were sourced from the literature. The PALY was ascribed a financial value in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) per equivalent full-time worker. The total number of years lived, PALYs, and economic burden (in terms of GDP per PALY) were estimated. The model simulation was repeated assuming incidence was reduced, and the differences represented the impact of CHD prevention. All outcomes were discounted by 5% per annum. Over 10 years, the total projected years lived and PALYs in the Australian working-age population (with and without CHD) were 133 million and 83 million, respectively, amounting to A$17.2 trillion in GDP. We predicted more than 290 000 new (incident) CHD cases over the next 10 years. If all new cases of CHD could be prevented during this period, a total of 4 000 deaths could be averted, resulting in more than 8 000 years of life saved and 104 000 PALYs gained, equivalent to a gain of nearly A$21.8 billion (US$14.8 billion) in GDP., Conclusion: Prevention of CHD will prolong years of life lived and productive life years, resulting in substantial economic benefit. Policy makers and employers are encouraged to engage in preventive measures addressing CHD., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2020. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objective: there may be age-related differences in the impact of weight change on health. This study systematically reviewed the evidence on the relationship between weight change and all-cause mortality in adults aged 65 years and older., Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL were searched from inception to 11 June 2020, PROSPERO CRD 42019142268. We included observational studies reporting on the association between weight change and all-cause mortality in older community-dwelling adults. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed to calculate pooled hazard ratios and scored based on the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality guidelines., Results: a total of 30 studies, including 1,219,279 participants with 69,255 deaths, demonstrated that weight loss was associated with a 59% increase in mortality risk (hazard ratio (HR): 1.59; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.45-1.74; P < 0.001). Twenty-seven studies that reported outcomes for weight gain (1,210,116 participants with 65,481 deaths) indicated that weight gain was associated with a 10% increase in all-cause mortality (HR: 1.10; 95%CI: 1.02, 1.17; P = 0.01). Four studies investigated weight fluctuation (2,283 events among 6,901 participants), which was associated with a 63% increased mortality risk (HR: 1.66; 95%CI: 1.28, 2.15). No evidence of publication bias was observed (all P > 0.05)., Conclusion: for community-dwelling older adults, weight changes (weight loss, gain or weight fluctuation) are associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality risk relative to stable weight. Further research is needed to determine whether these associations vary depending upon initial weight, and whether or not the weight loss/gain was intentional., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Previous research suggests that a range of factors influence an individual's physical activity (PA) participation, but studies among Nepalese adults are limited. In this qualitative study, we aimed to explore the multilevel influences upon PA participation among community-dwelling adults aged 40 years and above living in an urban setting in Kathmandu, Nepal. Men ( n = 21) and women ( n = 30) were purposively sampled to participate in one of nine focus group discussions. Types of PA undertaken constituted activities related to housework, farm work, and active travel. Individual-level barriers included lack of knowledge, lack of motivation, perceptions of already being active, personal limitations, and lack of time. Interpersonal barriers included household responsibilities and lack of support. Broader environmental barriers included lack of infrastructure for active commuting, poor safety, rising use of motorized transport, lack of resting areas, weak social norms about PA, declining agricultural engagement, mechanization, and improved access to technology and facilities. Some differences were observed between the gender and disease groups. Health benefits, integration into domestic work, opportunities for social interaction, and social support were the facilitators. Interventions focusing on families, highlighting the short- and long-term benefits of PA, addressing gender roles, and ensuring women are better supported represent opportunities to promote PA. Community-based interventions will be essential to establish social norms around PA and improve social support.

Background: Given the age-related decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in healthy individuals, we examined the association of all-cause death or cardiovascular event with the Kidney age - Chronological age Difference (KCD) score, whereby an individual's kidney age is estimated from their estimated GFR (eGFR) and the age-dependent eGFR decline reported for healthy living potential kidney donors., Methods: We examined the association between death or cardiovascular event and KCD score, age-dependent stepped eGFR criteria (eGFRstep), and eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m 2 (eGFR60) in a community-based high cardiovascular risk cohort of 3837 individuals aged ≥60 (median 70, interquartile range 65, 75) years, followed for a median of 5.6 years., Results: In proportional hazards analysis, KCD score ≥ 20 years (KCD20) was associated with increased risk of death or cardiovascular event in unadjusted analysis and after adjustment for age, sex and cardiovascular risk factors. Addition of KCD20, eGFRstep or eGFR60 to a cardiovascular risk factor model did not improve area under the curve for identification of individuals who experienced death or cardiovascular event in receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. However, addition of KCD20 or eGFR60, but not eGFRstep, to a cardiovascular risk factor model improved net reclassification and integrated discrimination. KCD20 identified individuals who experienced death or cardiovascular event with greater sensitivity than eGFRstep for all participants, and with greater sensitivity than eGFR60 for participants aged 60-69 years, with similar sensitivities for men and women., Conclusions: In this high cardiovascular risk cohort aged ≥60 years, the KCD score provided an age-adapted measure of kidney function that may assist patient education, and KCD20 provided an age-adapted criterion of eGFR-related increased risk of death or cardiovascular event. Further studies that include the full age spectrum are required to examine the optimal KCD score cut point that identifies increased risk of death or cardiovascular event, and kidney events, associated with impaired kidney function, and whether the optimal KCD score cut point is similar for men and women., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00400257 , NCT00604006 , and NCT01581827 .

Background: Kidney disease is associated with impaired work productivity. However, the collective effect of missed work days, reduced output at work, and early withdrawal from the workforce is rarely considered in health-economic evaluations., Methods: To determine the effect on work productivity of preventing incident cases of kidney disease, using the novel measure "productivity-adjusted life year" (PALY), we constructed a dynamic life table model for the Australian working-age population (aged 15-69 years) over 10 years (2020-2029), stratified by kidney-disease status. Input data, including productivity estimates, were sourced from the literature. We ascribed a financial value to the PALY metric in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) per equivalent full-time worker and assessed the total number of years lived, total PALYs, and broader economic costs (GDP per PALY). We repeated the model simulation, assuming a reduced kidney-disease incidence; the differences reflected the effects of preventing new kidney-disease cases. Outcomes were discounted by 5% annually., Results: Our projections indicate that, from 2020 to 2029, the estimated number of new kidney-disease cases will exceed 161,000. Preventing 10% of new cases of kidney disease during this period would result in >300 premature deaths averted and approximately 550 years of life and 7600 PALYs saved-equivalent to a savings of US$1.1 billion in GDP or US$67,000 per new case avoided., Conclusions: Pursuing a relatively modest target for preventing kidney disease in Australia may prolong years of life lived and increase productive life years, resulting in substantial economic benefit. Our findings highlight the need for investment in preventive measures to reduce future cases of kidney disease., (Copyright © 2021 by the American Society of Nephrology.)

Objective: Diabetes imposes a heavy burden on both health and productivity. In this study, we sought to estimate the potential productivity gains associated with the prevention of type 2 diabetes over the next 10 years in Australia., Research Design and Methods: Dynamic life table models were constructed to estimate years of life lived and productivity-adjusted life-years (PALYs) lived by Australians aged 20-69 years over the period from 2020 to 2029. The models distinguished people with and without type 2 diabetes. PALYs were ascribed a financial value equivalent to gross domestic product (GDP) per full-time worker in Australia (∼200,000 Australian dollars [AUD]). The model simulation was first undertaken assuming currently expected trends in the incidence of type 2 diabetes and then repeated assuming hypothetically that the incidence was reduced. The difference between the modeled outputs reflected the impact of new cases of type 2 diabetes on productivity as well as the potential benefits of prevention. An annual 5% discount rate was applied to all outcomes., Results: Over the next decade, 140 million years of life and 87 million PALYs will be lived by Australians of working age, contributing AUD 18.0 trillion to the country's GDP. A 10% reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes would result in a gain of 2,510 PALYs and AUD 532 million in GDP., Conclusions: This study illustrates the health and economic impact of type 2 diabetes and the gains that could be potentially achieved from the implementation of effective prevention strategies. However, cost-effectiveness evaluations of these prevention strategies are needed., (© 2021 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Objective: As a result of the coronavirus-19 disease (COVID-19) pandemic, Australia adopted emergency measures on 22 March 2020. This study reports the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown on appetite and overeating in Australian adults during the first month of emergency measures., Design: This study reports analysis of data from the population-based, self-completed survey. The main outcome measure was an item from the Patient Health Questionnaire 9 asking: 'Over the past 2 weeks, how often have you been bothered by poor appetite or overeating?'. Data on sociodemographic factors, symptoms of anxiety and depression, and the impact of COVID-19 and lockdown were also collected. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine associations with poor appetite or overeating., Setting: An anonymous online survey available from 3 April to 2 May 2020., Participants: A total of 13 829 Australian residents aged 18 years or over., Results: The weighted prevalence of being bothered by poor appetite or overeating in the past 2 weeks was 53·6 %, with 11·6 % (95 % CI 10·6, 12·6) of the cohort reporting poor appetite or overeating nearly every day. High levels of anxiety, concern about contracting COVID-19, being in lockdown with children and reporting a severe impact of the lockdown were associated with increased odds of poor appetite or overeating., Conclusions: Given the widespread prevalence of being bothered by poor appetite or overeating, universal public health interventions to address emotion-focused or situational eating during periods of lockdown may be appropriate.

The purposes of this study were to (i) develop a field-goal shooting performance analysis template and (ii) explore the impact of each identified variable upon the likely outcome of a field-goal attempt using binary logistic regression modelling in elite men's wheelchair basketball. First, a field-goal shooting performance analysis template was developed that included 71 Action Variables (AV) grouped within 22 Categorical Predictor Variables (CPV) representing offensive, defensive and game context variables. Second, footage of all 5,105 field-goal attempts from 12 teams during the men's 2016 Rio De Janeiro Paralympic Games wheelchair basketball competition were analysed using the template. Pearson's chi-square analyses found that 18 of the CPV were significantly associated with field-goal attempt outcome (p < 0.05), with seven of them reaching moderate association (Cramer's V: 0.1-0.3). Third, using 70% of the dataset (3,574 field-goal attempts), binary logistic regression analyses identified that five offensive variables (classification category of the player, the action leading up to the field-goal attempt, the time left on the clock, the location of the shot, and the movement of the player), two defensive variables (the pressure being exerted by the defence, and the number of defenders within a 1-meter radius) and 1 context variable (the finishing position of the team in the competition) affected the probability of a successful field-goal attempt. The quality of the developed model was determined acceptable (greater than 65%), producing an area under the curve value of 68.5% when the model was run against the remaining 30% of the dataset (1,531 field-goal attempts). The development of the model from such a large sample of objective data is unique. As such it offers robust empirical evidence to enable coaches, performance analysts and players to move beyond anecdote, in order to appreciate the potential effect of various and varying offensive, defensive and contextual variables on field-goal success., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.