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This paper develops a novel Bayesian heterogeneous panel vector autoregressive model (B-HP-VAR) that quantifies the impact of geopolitical risk shocks on the tourism industry of 14 emerging market and developing economies (EMDE). We find that increasing geopolitical tensions have a persistent negative effect on tourism demand in most of these countries, as shown by our impulse response estimates. Furthermore, evidence from forecast error variance decomposition reveals that geopolitical risk shocks in many EMDE economies constitute the main driver of tourism demand. Analysis from historical decompositions demonstrates that geopolitical tensions have been particularly influential in driving tourism demand in Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, China, Indonesia, Thailand, Colombia, and Mexico. Our main findings are robust to several perturbations to the benchmark specification. Our results have several important implications for policymakers in their efforts to strengthen the ability of the tourism industry to absorb shocks from geopolitical tensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show root‐T consistency of the smoothed AIC and smoothed BIC model averaging estimators (sAIC, sBIC) of impulse response coefficients in stationary vector autoregressive models of finite lag order. We also show that there is not one unique way to define the sAIC and sBIC estimators, but that instead there is a whole class of each of these defined by a weight scaling factor that allows the averaging estimator to become more similar to either its model selection counterpart or the equal weights averaging estimator. We also show asymptotic validity of a bootstrap method for estimating the averaging estimators' distributions. Simulations illustrate the benefits of using sAIC instead of AIC estimators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper extends the discussion on the effects of the two distinctive monetary surprises in the literature. First, we show that the proxy of conventional monetary shock Granger causes the endogenous variables in the vector autoregressive model. Second, we provide evidence that the existing model can be exposed to a weak instrument problem. With our alternative model mitigating these concerns, the second monetary shock can be interpreted as unconventional monetary news in general. The estimation results show contractionary effect of the unconventional policy. We find increases in output after a positive conventional monetary surprise, suggesting an important Fed's information effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the pass-through of unanticipated movements in growth and variance of exchange rate to inflation. First, it quantifies the volatility of the exchange rate by using the GARCH-X model. Foreign exchange reserves are considered as an exogenous variable that plays an instrumental role in stabilising the exchange rate. Second, the SVAR model is estimated to identify the responses of inflation to unanticipated shocks. The results indicate that there is a direct relationship between exchange rate volatility and inflation in the economies where the volatility is relatively high, such as Pakistan, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Turkiye. While, in economies with flexible exchange rate regimes and less volatile exchange rates, volatility tend to have either a negative or minimal effect on inflation. The findings on the effect of unexpected exchange rate fluctuations on inflation align with economic theory. Countries like Pakistan, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Hungary, Egypt, Georgia, and Poland, which experience greater exchange rate volatility, exhibit a positive pass-through to inflation. Consequently, the study concludes that exchange rate stability is crucial for controlling inflation in emerging economies. Additionally, the study suggests that these countries should prioritize building adequate foreign exchange reserves, and emphasizes the importance of central bank independence in monetary policy decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

All parameters in structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are locally identified when the structural shocks are independent and follow non‐Gaussian distributions. Unfortunately, standard inference methods that exploit such features of the data for identification fail to yield correct coverage for structural functions of the model parameters when deviations from Gaussianity are small. To this extent, we propose a locally robust semiparametric approach to conduct hypothesis tests and construct confidence sets for structural functions in SVAR models. The methodology fully exploits non‐Gaussianity when it is present, but yields correct size/coverage for local‐to‐Gaussian densities. Empirically, we revisit two macroeconomic SVAR studies where we document mixed results. For the oil price model of Kilian and Murphy (2012), we find that non‐Gaussianity can robustly identify reasonable confidence sets, whereas for the labor supply–demand model of Baumeister and Hamilton (2015) this is not the case. Moreover, these exercises highlight the importance of using weak identification robust methods to assess estimation uncertainty when using non‐Gaussianity for identification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the paper is to analyze changes and peculiarities of behavior of economic agents with bounded rationality in the New Keynesian model, in which imported equipment and technology are one of the factors of production, and households consume only domestic products. The formation of output gap and inflation expectations by agents is based on stationary values of these variables and on extrapolation of the latest available data on inflation and the output gap. The weight shares of agents applying these rules change endogenously. Histograms of the frequency distribution of the degree of buoyancy and the impulse responses of monetary policy shocks and technology shocks to the variables under study show that a less open economy tends to go through an economic cycle with a smaller amplitude than a more rigid economy. Analyses of the trade-offs between the volatility of inflation and the output gap at different parameter values in the Taylor rule show their non-linear nature (in contrast to standard models with rational expectations). An important result obtained in this analysis is that the rational expectations hypothesis is more consistent with a closed economy than with an open one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a new bootstrap algorithm for inference for impulse responses in structural vector autoregressive models identified with an external proxy variable. Simulations show that the new bootstrap algorithm provides confidence intervals for impulse responses which often have more precise coverage than and similar length to the competing moving-block bootstrap intervals. An empirical example shows how the new bootstrap algorithm can be applied in the context of identifying monetary policy shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well known that Local Projections (LP) residuals are autocorrelated. Conventional wisdom says that LP have to be estimated by OLS and that GLS is not possible because the autocorrelation process is unknown and/or because the GLS estimator would be inconsistent. I show that the autocorrelation process of LP can be written as a Vector Moving Average (VMA) process of the Wold errors and impulse responses and that autocorrelation can be corrected for using a consistent GLS estimator. Monte Carlo simulations show that estimating LP with GLS can lead to more efficient estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of unconventional monetary policy on inflation and economic growth in Algeria. To investigate this impact, we estimated a SVAR model, covering the period from 2006 to 2022 using quarterly data. The originality of this study is the use of the estimated dynamic effects of shocks (stylized facts) as a benchmark for assessing the effectiveness and pass-through of unconventional policies. Our results show that the shock induced by unconventional monetary policy is not transmitted to inflation, neither in the short run nor in the long run, even under theoretical restrictions. In addition, unconventional monetary shocks have no effect on real variables (economic growth). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We construct an agricultural policy uncertainty (APU) index from leading national and local newspapers in major agricultural states in the United States from January 1999 to September 2021. Our analysis shows that economic policy uncertainty Granger causes APU linearly in the short run, but the relationship is nonlinear and bidirectional in the long run. When economic policy uncertainty is considered, APU significantly reduces hedgers' net short positions and speculators' net long positions (except for corn hedgers) in the corn and soybean markets. APU also has a significant positive impact on the log returns of corn and soybean futures prices, consistent with the theory of storage where commodity returns and volatility are positively correlated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conducted a study analyzing the impact of productivity shocks on equity returns in the U.S. economy from Q1 1960 to Q1 2022 using an RBC DSGE model. Our results suggest that while initial productivity shocks lead to higher equity returns, this effect fades within eight quarters. Nonetheless, such shocks can still provide valuable signals for investors to strategically allocate their investments in sectors that may benefit the most. Our study also found that the responses of key macroeconomic variables, including real GDP, are consistent with those observed in other calibration based DSGE models of the U.S. in previous research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Summary: This paper focuses on the identification and quantitative estimation of sanctions on the Iranian economy over the period 1989–2019. It provides a new time series approach and proposes a novel measure of sanctions intensity based on daily newspaper coverage. In absence of sanctions, Iran's average annual growth could have been around 4–5%, as compared to the 3% realized. Estimates of the proposed sanctions‐augmented structural VAR show that sanctions significantly decrease oil export revenues and result in substantial depreciation of Iranian rial, followed by subsequent increases in inflation and falls in output growth. Keeping other shocks fixed, 2 years of sanctions can explain up to 60% of output growth forecast error variance, although a single quarter sanction shock proves to have quantitatively small effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose and scientific novelty of this work is to analyze the changes and features of economic agents' behavior when incorporating wage rigidity into a new Keynesian model under cognitive constraints of agents. The working hypothesis is the assumption that the forecasting of the output gap, inflation of prices and wages occurs with the help of fundamentalist and extrapolation rules. The first rule is based on forecasting the variables under study on the basis of their stationary values. The second rule is based on extrapolation of the latest available data on inflation and the output gap. The weight shares of agents applying these heuristic rules change endogenously, which is the source of endogenous waves of optimism and pessimism. An analysis of the impulse responses of interest rate and technology shocks suggests that a more flexible economy (an economy with flexible wages and rigid prices) is less prone to a spike in the economic cycle caused by waves of optimism and pessimism than a more rigid economy (an economy with rigid prices and wages) due to the inability of agents to respond immediately to exogenous disturbances in rigid conditions. Thus, these shocks cause wave effects in the economy, i.e., cyclical movements, i.e., a rigid economy will be more prone to booms and busts caused by alternating optimism and pessimism than a flexible economy. The model with an imperfect labor market is characterized by an increased concentration of vital forces at the values of 0 and 1, as well as in the mid-distribution compared to the base model. This feature provides a key explanation for the abnormal dynamics of the evolution of variables in this model. It is concluded that the difference between the degree of optimism and pessimism in the base model and in the model with rigid wages and prices is the full trust of agents in the central bank in targeting wage inflation in the absence of the stabilization of this inflation by the bank. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study examines the dynamic responses of five different daily energy prices to a pulse shock affecting the daily price of oil. Design/methodology/approach: Daily data for energy prices from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for January 7, 1997, through February 8, 2021, are analyzed. A bivariate structural vector error correction model and generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic model are combined and extended by adding the volatility of the growth rate of daily oil prices as an explanatory variable for the growth rates of energy prices. This model is estimated and used to generate impulse responses for energy prices. Findings: The empirical results show that the levels of the daily energy prices examined have unit roots, are integrated of order one, are cointegrated, and generally revert slowly to their long-term equilibrium relationships with the price of oil. The growth rates for the daily energy prices have autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity, generally are positively related to the volatility of daily oil prices, respond quickly to a pulse shock to daily oil prices, and have cumulative responses that last at least one month. Originality/value: This paper allows for simultaneous estimation of extended bivariate structural vector error correction and generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic models that include the volatility of oil as an explanatory variable and uses these models to generated cumulative impulse responses for the growth rates of daily energy prices to oil price shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article considers online input signal design for kernel-based estimation of impulse responses where the input signal is designed one bit at a time while simultaneously performing the identification. A method referred to as the direct spectrum shaping (DSS) method is proposed based on the biased Cramér–Rao lower bound, combined with detailed analysis of two popular choices of kernels. With no gradient computations, the DSS technique is able to achieve comparable accuracy but with a significant reduction in computational times by a factor of more than 370 compared with the existing Bayesian A-optimality (BAO) technique. The BAO technique, in general, attains higher estimation accuracy for oscillatory systems whereas the DSS approach is superior for systems with smoother impulse responses. The DSS method possesses further advantages of simplicity of implementation and low crest factor due to the signal being binary. An application example on a simulated curing oven in the glove manufacturing industry illustrates the potential impact of the DSS method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, the effects of 103 bilateral regional trade agreements (RTAs: partial scope agreements — PSAs — and free trade agreements — FTAs) are studied in a dynamic way. The analysis of quarterly trade flows from Q4-1982 to Q4-2018 shows dynamic differences between RTAs and among trade partners. Results show that countries benefit unevenly from bilateral RTAs and that their economic size is not determinant. The positive global trade trend since the 1990s and the negative effect of the 2008 economic crisis are captured by the factor analysis in order to study specifically how trade agreements affect bilateral trade asymmetrically. On average, RTAs promote a 10% increase in bilateral trade flows above the mean trend, but PSAs tend to enhance bilateral trade more than FTAs (21% compared to 9%). Additionally, PSAs gather most of the effects during the first four quarters after the agreements are enforced whereas FTAs have longer effects over time. The current study allows a classification of bilateral trade series in homogeneous groups according to the dynamic impact of the bilateral RTAs by the means of a cluster analysis. Heterogeneity between clusters is therefore explored. Moreover, a difference concerning the economic crisis starting in 2008 is noticed: overall, for agreements in force before 2008, their impact on bilateral trade is positive (30%) while it is negative for agreements signed after 2008 (− 9%). This indicates that RTAs play a heterogeneous role as a smoothing cycle mechanism. Finally, evidence of the anticipation effect is found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically investigates the dynamics between budget deficit and government debt in the U.S. using two different measures of the budget deficit: the current budget deficit and cyclically-adjusted budget deficit. A threshold Vector autoregression (VAR) model is estimated to explore the dynamics in different regimes using quarterly data from 1947:Q1 to 2017:Q3. The specification test rejects a linear VAR model against the threshold VAR. When we use the current budget deficit, regime 1 resemble governments prioritize minimizing budget deficit and debt, whereas, regime 2 resemble otherwise. When we use the cyclically adjusted budget deficit, regime 1 resemble economic expansions, whereas, regime 2 resemble recessions. The impulse responses show evidence of asymmetry and counter-cyclicality. The impulse responses also indicate that an increase in the debt dictate the government's response towards minimizing the budget deficit and tend to prioritize budget deficit less when the economy expands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between the trade-weighted dollar exchange rates and the oil prices in the world market. Monthly data during 1980–2017 are used for this purpose. Design/methodology/approach: The symmetric and asymmetric generalized impulse response functions are estimated for these important economic indicators. Findings: The empirical findings show that if the dollar rate increases (i.e. the dollar depreciates), the oil price will increase. The reverse relationship is also supported empirically meaning that an increase in the oil price will results in a significant depreciation of the dollar rate. Based on the asymmetric impulses responses, it can also be claimed that the negative interaction is only significant for the positive changes and not for the negative ones. Thus, the underlying variables are negatively interrelated only for the positive shocks since a negative shock from any variable does not seem to have any significant impact on the other variable. These results have implications for cross hedging of price risk. Originality/value: To the best knowledge, this is the first attempt to investigate the relationship between the dollar weighted exchange rate and the oil pieces via the asymmetric impulse response functions. Both of these variables and their interactions are very important for investors as well as policy makers worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates dynamic interactions and feedback effects between financial market risk proxied by VIX and key macroeconomic stability variables that include the rate of unemployment, headline inflation and market-based inflation expectations reflected by the breakeven inflation. We argue that market risk should play a stronger role in macroeconomic modeling and forecasting than it has been recognized thus far in the literature. We employ vector autoregression with impulse response functions, as well as two-state Markov switching tests to examine these interactions on the longest available US monthly data. The empirical tests show that the association between market risk and macroeconomic fundamentals is predominantly neutral at normal, predictable economic conditions. It becomes very pronounced at times of financial distress, in the environment of elevated market risk coupled with uncertain expectations for macroeconomic variables. Shocks in VIX have a longer impact on macroeconomic stability than that generally claimed in the prior literature. The Markov switching tests for CPI and breakeven inflation indicate that households and businesses are concerned primarily about episodes of increasing inflation, while bond market participants worry mainly about declining inflation and deflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the effects of government spending shocks on real effective exchange rate in South Africa over the period 1970Q1–2019Q2. In doing so, a version of vector autoregressive impulse response model developed by Jordà is employed and the shocks are identified recursively. The impulse responses show that government spending shock has a significant appreciation effect on real effective exchange rate and its effect depends on the nature of the fiscal shock. Although the effect of government spending on real effective exchange rate does not depend on the sign of the shock, it varies over economic cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates a block recursive VAR to evaluate the relative impacts of US and Chinese GDP growth shocks on Australia's growth, controlling for the impacts of these shocks on growth in three of Australia's other major trading partners. For the sample 1984–2016, shocks to US GDP growth have a larger impact on Australian GDP growth than do shocks to Chinese GDP growth. In rolling windows through the sample, the impact of Chinese GDP shocks on Australia's growth increases substantially. For the sub‐sample 2000–2016, shocks to United States and Chinese GDP growth impact Australian GDP growth by the same magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the study is to explore the short-run and long-run dynamic relationships between exchange rate fluctuations and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in China. The justification is that the undertaken topic is preeminent for devising strategies to promote economic development, thus, a course that carries much at stake not only for China but also for other developing countries. Methodology used in the study consists of co-integration tests, vector error correction models, Wald tests and impulse responses. Monthly time series data from the National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China are analyzed. The main empirical results indicate that a change in exchange rates negatively affects FDI inflows in the long run while there exists no evidence of short-run dynamics and reciprocal feedback between exchange rate fluctuations and FDI inflows. Furthermore, a structural break occurs during the 2007-2009 global financial crisis shock to FDI inflows in China. In conclusions, this research expands knowledge of factors that affect FDI inflows. To generalize the results obtained from this study, recommendations for future research include studies encompassing different economies where data are available. Such research will contribute towards improving our understanding of exchange rate systems and responses in each market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective - The objective of this study is to test direction of causality between components of public expenditure and economic growth in India. Methodology/Technique - The paper uses annual data for the period 1980-2015. To measure public expenditure, plan expenditure and non-plan expenditure are used. The econometric methodology employed is Vector Auto regression (VAR) model. Findings - First, the stationary properties of the data were tested using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Dickey- Fuller (DF) test, and the Phillip-Perron (PP) test and found that variables were non-stationary in level, but stationary in first differences. Then, Johansen- Jueslius cointegration test was employed to test the long-run association among the variables and results suggest an absence of any long-run association between plan expenditure and non-plan expenditure and economic growth in India. The Granger Causality test suggests there is unidirectional causality running from economic growth and non-plan expenditure and plan expenditure and non-plan expenditure and absence of causality public expenditure and economic growth. Novelty - The results of the Forecast Error Variance Decompositions test indicated that innovations in the variables are mostly explained by their own shocks. The impulse responses of the economic growth, plan expenditure and non-plan expenditure with respect to identified shocks are consistent with the results of Variance Decomposition Analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a methodology to investigate which shocks drive asynchrony of business cycles. It unites two strands of literature, those on common features and on structural VAR analysis. In particular, a lack of a common cycle between two GDPs can be traced back to at least one shock with non-collinear structural impulse responses. We apply a Wald test to the collinearity hypothesis. Empirical results on the eurozone reveal that differences in the business cycles in several peripheral countries compared to a eurozone core are triggered mainly by local shocks. Depending on the country, real or nominal shocks turn out to play a more important role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effects of foreign official purchases of U.S. treasuries on mortgage rates from January 1985 to June 2007 using a proxy structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, where shocks to foreign official inflows to treasuries are identified by their correlation with foreign exchange interventions. Although mortgage rates significantly decrease in response to positive shocks to foreign official purchases of U.S. treasuries, these shocks only explain a small fraction of the variation in the U.S. mortgage rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the focused information criterion and plug-in average for vector autoregressive models with local-to-zero misspecification. These methods have the advantage of focusing on a quantity of interest rather than aiming at overall model fit. Any (sufficiently regular) function of the parameters can be used as a quantity of interest. We determine the asymptotic properties and elaborate on the role of the locally misspecified parameters. In particular, we show that the inability to consistently estimate locally misspecified parameters translates into suboptimal selection and averaging. We apply this framework to impulse response analysis. A Monte Carlo simulation study supports our claims. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose an empirical framework for analyzing the macroeconomic effects of quantitative easing (QE) and apply it to Japan. The framework is a regime‐switching structural vector autoregression in which the monetary policy regime, chosen by the central bank responding to economic conditions, is endogenous and observable. QE is modeled as one of the regimes. The model incorporates an exit condition for terminating QE. We find that higher reserves at the effective lower bound raise inflation and output, and that terminating QE may be contractionary or expansionary, depending on the state of the economy at the point of exit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper derives the determination of external finance premium (EFP) in the context of banking sector profit maximisation behaviour. EFP/credit spread stems from the managerial cost, associated with the intermediation process, of factor payments to collateral and labour services. The stake of entrepreneurs is relevant to determine the EFP on two grounds: (a) the ratio of entrepreneurial net wealth to collateral value influences the total managerial cost; and (b) entrepreneurs' net worth (fraction of total collateral) helps mitigate the EFP from extracting rebate from collateral service. Based on these, we can derive an observationally similar relationship between EFP and entrepreneurial leverage, as in previous studies. This provides a rationale for us to understand the financial friction from a novel perspective. Besides the leverage ratio, the EFP is shown to be determined also by the resource cost of financial intermediation, for which the model generates a mechanism that contains broader ingredients in determining the behaviour of EFP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study considers structure preserving balanced proper orthogonal decomposition for second‐order form systems via shifted Legendre polynomials. The proposed approach is to use time interval empirical Gramians of the first‐order representation, which are constructed from impulse responses by solving block tridiagonal linear systems, to generate approximate balanced system for the large‐scale second‐order form system. The balancing transformation is directly computed from the expansion coefficients of impulse responses in the space spanned by shifted Legendre polynomials, without computing the full Gramians for the first‐order representation. Then, the reduced second‐order model is constructed by truncating the states corresponding to the small approximate singular values. Furthermore, in combination with the dominant subspace projection method, the authors modify the reduction procedure to alleviate the shortcoming of the above method, which may unexpectedly lead to unstable systems even though the original one is stable. The stability preservation of the reduced model is briefly discussed. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed methods is demonstrated by two numerical experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Propagation of waves within media supporting reverberation is usually regarded as a direct extension of the case of multi-path propagation, where a set of independent paths, equivalent to plane-wave contributions, can be drawn between a transmitter and a receiver. This paper adopts an alternative approach, based on modal theory, in order to derive models of the stochastic behavior of impulse responses (IRs) measured within such media. IRs can be represented as stationary Gaussian random processes whose amplitude is modulated by a decay function that converges to an exponential only if the time constants of each mode are similar, otherwise displaying a decay rate slowing with time as the modal time constants become more diverse. The asymptotic convergence to a Gaussian process is controlled by the number of available modes, which modal theory predicts to increase linearly with the bandwidth, but quadratically with the frequency. Modal theory implies that groups of typically more than eight propagation paths must be coherently related in order to give rise to reverberation. As a result, fewer degrees of freedom may be available than expected from the number of propagation paths involved, thus leading to a slower convergence to Gaussian propagation models. The stochastic model introduced is further applied in order to understand how far IRs can locally fluctuate away from their root-mean-square amplitude profiles. All theoretical predictions are supported by experimental results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model to investigate the relationship among financial stress, inflation and growth in 19 advanced economies over the 1999-2016 period. To measure financial stress, we construct a financial stress index (FSI) that provides a signal of financial stress. We apply the PVAR approach along with impulse response functions (IRFs), variance decomposition, and Granger causality tests to FSI data on monetary stability, economic growth, housing markets and government policies. The analysis shows negative responses of the macroeconomic variables to financial stress shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a new nonparametric method of constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions of vector autoregressive models. The estimation uncertainty is captured by means of bootstrapping, and the highest density region (HDR) approach is used to construct the bands. A Monte Carlo comparison of the HDR bands with existing alternatives shows that the former are competitive with the bootstrap-based Bonferroni and Wald confidence regions. The relative tightness of the HDR bands matched with their good coverage properties makes them attractive for applications. An application to corporate bond spreads for Germany highlights the potential for empirical work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We employ a non-recursive identification scheme to identify the effects of a monetary policy shock in a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model for the US post-WWII quarterly data. The identification of the shock is achieved via heteroskedasticity, and different on-impact macroeconomic responses are allowed for (but not imposed) in each volatility regime. We show that the impulse responses obtained with the suggested non-recursive identification scheme are quite similar to those conditional on a recursive VAR estimated with pre-1984 data. In contrast, recursive vs. non-recursive identification schemes return different short-run responses of output and investment during the Great Moderation. Robustness checks dealing with a different definition of investment, an alternative break-point, and federal funds futures rates as an indicator of the monetary policy stance are documented and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically investigates how the policy rate as a monetary policy stance reacts to output and price level in Thailand during 2005 and 2016. An empirical relationship that characterizes the way the Bank of Thailand adjusts its policy rate to output growth and inflation is identified. The results from Johansen cointegration test show that there exists a long-run relationship of the policy rate with real GDP and prices. This long-run equation differs from the empirical Taylor-type rule. However, the result from short-run dynamics captures the short-run interest rate equation. The partial adjustment coefficient in the estimated interest rate equation is negative and highly significant, which indicates that any deviation of the policy rate from its equilibrium value is corrected by monetary policy actions. Furthermore, there is long-run causality running from inflation and economic growth to a change in the policy rate. In the short run, economic growth does not negatively cause a change in the policy rate while inflation positively causes a change in the policy rate. Also, impulse response analysis from an unrestricted VAR model indicates that a shock to inflation has a stronger impact on the fluctuations in the policy rate a shock to output growth does. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the response of income concentration in the US to the occurrence of major systemic banking crises since the beginning of the twentieth century. In doing so, the paper analyzes the shape of the upper income tail as well as the national income shares accruing to different groups within the richest decile. The findings suggest that systemic banking crises reduce income concentration within the top decile of the US pre-tax and transfers income distribution, and more generally, that the effect is highly heterogeneous across different top income groups. While the richest income group loses ground, the lower half of the top decile appears to gain in relative terms. However, evidence suggests that the estimated short-term effect of market forces stemming from banking crises can be relatively small in magnitude and even temporary in nature, as it may be quickly reabsorbed. These findings lend indirect support to the idea that only substantial changes in government policies and institutional frameworks can bring about radical changes in income distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the impact of macroeconomic shocks on US public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a primary balance, or austerity, shock, the debt ratio initially declines but at a cost of lower growth. The debt ratio then rises to its pre-shock path, suggesting the austerity shock could be self-defeating. An inflation shock reduces the debt ratio initially, while a positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. Our specification, properly incorporating the debt equation, produces different debt impulse responses and forecasts from VAR models either excluding debt or including debt linearly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is evidence that estimates of long-run impulse responses of structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models based on long-run identifying restrictions may not be very accurate. This finding suggests that using short-run identifying restrictions may be preferable. We compare structural VAR impulse response estimates based on long-run and short-run identifying restrictions and find that long-run identifying restrictions can result in much more precise estimates for the structural impulse responses than restrictions on the impact effects of the shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically investigates how the policy rate as a monetary policy stance reacts to output and price level in Thailand during 2005 and 2016. An empirical relationship that characterizes the way the Bank of Thailand adjusts its policy rate to output growth and inflation is identified. The results from Johansen cointegration test show that there exists a long-run relationship of the policy rate with real GDP and prices. This long-run equation differs from the empirical Taylor-type rule. However, the result from short-run dynamics captures the short-run interest rate equation. The partial adjustment coefficient in the estimated interest rate equation is negative and highly significant, which indicates that any deviation of the policy rate from its equilibrium value is corrected by monetary policy actions. Furthermore, there is long-run causality running from inflation and economic growth to a change in the policy rate. In the short run, economic growth does not negatively cause a change in the policy rate while inflation positively causes a change in the policy rate. Also, impulse response analysis from an unrestricted VAR model indicates that a shock to inflation has a stronger impact on the fluctuations in the policy rate a shock to output growth does. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A factor structure for VAR model error terms is adopted to examine the dynamic relationships of major macroeconomic time series. The structure, which is testable, is used to trace the consequences of a contemporaneously 'ceteris paribus' (or idiosyncratic) change in each variable in the VAR model. The impulse responses to idiosyncratic shocks are shown to be a dynamic representation of the Granger causality. In the analyses of the US monthly data from 1954 to 2011 for four key variables, inflation is found to respond negatively (positively) to an increase in unemployment (the federal funds rate), holding other variables contemporaneously fixed. The real variables (output and unemployment) appear unresponsive to idiosyncratic changes in the nominal variables (the federal funds rate and inflation). A common factor is observed to have a positive effect on unemployment and negative effects on output, inflation and the federal funds rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigated the impact of the macroeconomic environment on family demographic outcomes in Greece at the macro level. We focused on the dynamic relationship between births, marriages, and economic indicators, using time-series data covering the period 1960-2014. Our empirical analysis was based on impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition in the framework of vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Our main results showed that birth rate and marriage rate positively responded to income and employment shocks, with the estimated responses being sizable, especially for the birth rate. Income effects and status-shifts effects (proxied by private consumption) influenced the birth rate and marriage rate in opposite ways. The unemployment rate produced strong negative effects on births, while marriage rate responses were substantially lower. Innovation accounting showed that a large proportion of the h-step forecast error variance of birth and marriage rate was accounted for by innovations (shocks) in the economic indicator variables for long-term horizons. The ongoing Greek economic crisis has contributed to the (negative) responses of births and marriages to income and employment shocks. Responses to the unemployment rate were still large when excluding the crisis years or when removing crisis effects on the series' long-run component (trend). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To interrelate K-complexes, spindles, evoked response potentials (ERPs), and spontaneous electroencephalography (EEG) using neural field theory (NFT), physiology-based NFT of the corticothalamic system is used to model cortical excitatory and inhibitory populations and thalamic relay and reticular nuclei. The impulse response function of the model is used to predict the responses to impulses, which are compared with transient waveforms in sleep studies. Fits to empirical data then allow underlying brain physiology to be inferred and compared with other waves. Spontaneous K-complexes, spindles, and other transient waveforms can be reproduced using NFT by treating them as evoked responses to impulsive stimuli with brain parameters appropriate to spontaneous EEG in sleep stage 2. Using this approach, spontaneous K-complexes and sleep spindles can be analyzed using the same single theory as previously been used to account for waking ERPs and other EEG phenomena. As a result, NFT can explain a wide variety of transient waveforms that have only been phenomenologically classified to date. This enables noninvasive fitting to be used to infer underlying physiological parameters. This physiology-based model reproduces the time series of different transient EEG waveforms; it has previously reproduced experimental EEG spectra, and waking ERPs, and many other observations, thereby unifying transient sleep waveforms with these phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the relationship between fiscal consolidations and changes in income distribution.Design/methodology/approach Looking at a sample of 27 emerging market economies between 1980 and 2014, the authors resort to both static panel techniques as well as dynamic impulse response function analysis using local projection methods to uncover the direct impact of adjustments on inequality.Findings The authors find that fiscal consolidations tend to lead to an increase in income inequality and reduce the redistributive role of fiscal policy. Spending-based consolidations are more detrimental to income distribution than tax based ones and fiscal retrenchment during bad times raises inequality. In times of fiscal expansion inequality seems to rise in the medium term and this effect is larger if the economy is booming.Research limitations/implications The distributional effects of consolidation, i.e. whether consolidation can confer benefits, must be balanced against the potential longer term benefits. It should be recognized that there is scope for improving the targeting and efficiency of public programs and that fiscal adjustments would not unavoidably run into such an efficiency vs equity trade-off.Originality/value The paper, applying a consistent methodology, documents the set of fiscal episodes emerging market economies experienced over time. The authors empirically examine both the static and dynamic links between fiscal consolidation and inequality. Since composition matters, the authors explore how spending and tax-based fiscal consolidations affect income distribution. The authors conduct several robustness checks including the use of alternative income distribution proxies and state-contingent estimations on the phase of the business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article considers a multivariate system of fractionally integrated time series and investigates the most appropriate way for estimating Impulse Response (IR) coefficients and their associated confidence intervals. The article extends the univariate analysis recently provided by Baillie and Kapetanios (2013), and uses a semiparametric, time domain estimator, based on a vector autoregression (VAR) approximation. Results are also derived for the orthogonalized estimatedIRswhich are generally more practically relevant. Simulation evidence strongly indicates the desirability of applying the Kilian small sample bias correction, which is found to improve the coverage accuracy of confidence intervals forIRs. The most appropriate order of theVARturns out to be relevant for the lag length of theIRbeing estimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we show that inflation, both in the short and long run, negatively affects durable and non-durable consumption and output, and positively influences the current account balance. In particular, the impact of inflation is more pronounced on durable relative to non-durable goods. Using quarterly data from Canada, the UK and the USA, we demonstrate that these findings are consistent and robust across different econometric specifications. An open economy model with durable and non-durable consumption, households with labor/leisure choice and money introduced through cash-in-advance (CIA) constraint on consumption expenditure alone could meaningfully explain these empirical observations. Our empirical findings of non-neutral and negative effects of inflation on real growth are significant for many economic models in the asset pricing literature that support a negative co-movement of stock prices and expected inflation. Moreover, such positive inflation premium in our model could provide economic explanation for a positive slope of the nominal term structure in the data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With a panel VAR of 10 Euro area countries, we studied the budgetary determinants of government bond yield spreads vis-à-vis Germany between 1999Q1 and 2012Q4. We find that rising bid ask, VIX and debt differentials increase yield spreads; and improvements in the budget balance, higher growth prospects and depreciation lower the spreads. Moreover, rises in public wages or in social expenditure increase spreads, while increases in direct and indirect taxes lower the yield spreads. In the post-2007Q3 crisis period, rising expenditure components (except subsidies) increased spreads. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]