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The incidence of dengue virus disease has increased globally across the past half-century, with highest number of cases ever reported in 2019 and again in 2023. We analyzed climatological, epidemiological, and phylogenomic data to investigate drivers of two decades of dengue in Cambodia, an understudied endemic setting. Using epidemiological models fit to a 19-y dataset, we first demonstrate that climate-driven transmission alone is insufficient to explain three epidemics across the time series. We then use wavelet decomposition to highlight enhanced annual and multiannual synchronicity in dengue cycles between provinces in epidemic years, suggesting a role for climate in homogenizing dynamics across space and time. Assuming reported cases correspond to symptomatic secondary infections, we next use an age-structured catalytic model to estimate a declining force of infection for dengue through time, which elevates the mean age of reported cases in Cambodia. Reported cases in >70-y-old individuals in the 2019 epidemic are best explained when also allowing for waning multitypic immunity and repeat symptomatic infections in older patients. We support this work with phylogenetic analysis of 192 dengue virus (DENV) genomes that we sequenced between 2019 and 2022, which document emergence of DENV-2 Cosmopolitan Genotype-II into Cambodia. This lineage demonstrates phylogenetic homogeneity across wide geographic areas, consistent with invasion behavior and in contrast to high phylogenetic diversity exhibited by endemic DENV-1. Finally, we simulate an age-structured, mechanistic model of dengue dynamics to demonstrate how expansion of an antigenically distinct lineage that evades preexisting multitypic immunity effectively reproduces the older-age infections witnessed in our data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we investigate an effect of alternative food on an eco-epidemiological predatorprey model with disease in predator and allee effect in prey species. We consider type-II functional response between the spices of this model. Here we have discussed local stability of the boundary equilibrium point and the interior equilibrium point. The Hopf Bifurcation analysis around the interior equilibrium point are analyzed. We notice that the system indicate chaotic behaviour at high level infection rate. Again it is observed from the numerical experiments that being present of alternative food and Allee effect, the system reveal a stable characteristics therefore Allee effect and alternative food source significantly play an important role to the control of chaotic dynamics of prey-predator system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present an epidemiological model for the crayfish plague, a disease caused by an invasive oomycete Aphanomyces astaci, and its general susceptible freshwater crayfish host. The pathogen shows high virulence with resulting high mortality rates in freshwater crayfishes native to Europe, Asia, Australia, and South America. The crayfish plague occurrence shows complicated dynamics due to the several types of possible infection routes, which include cannibalism and necrophagy. We explore this complexity by addressing the roles of host cannibalism and the multiple routes of transmission through (1) environment, (2) contact, (3) cannibalism, and (4) scavenging of infected carcasses. We describe a compartment model having six classes of crayfish and a pool of crayfish plague spores from a single nonevolving strain. We show that environmental transmission is the decisive factor in the development of epidemics. Compared with a pathogen‐free crayfish population, the presence of the pathogen with a low environmental transmission rate, regardless of the contact transmission rate, decreases the crayfish population size with a low risk of extinction. Conversely, a high transmission rate could drive both the crayfish and pathogen populations to extinction. High contact transmission rate with a low but nonzero environmental transmission rate can have mixed outcomes from extinction to large healthy population, depending on the initial values. Scavenging and cannibalism have a relevant role only when the environmental transmission rate is low, but scavenging can destabilize the system by transmitting the pathogen from a dead to a susceptible host. To the contrary, cannibalism stabilizes the dynamics by decreasing the proportion of infected population. Our model provides a simple tool for further analysis of complex host parasite dynamics and for the general understanding of crayfish disease dynamics in the wild. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the relationship between various aspects of socio-economic vulnerability and the magnitude of the Covid-19 force of infection in Jakarta using a spatial method. To analyse this relationship, the study uses a networked metapopulation epidemiological model employing village-level data on daily cases of Covid-19 during the period in which large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) were implemented in Jakarta. The results provide strong evidence that socio-economic vulnerability significantly affects the force of infection, with the direction of the effect differing depending on the aspect of socio-economic vulnerability under examination. Moreover, this study finds that socio-economic vulnerability has spillover effects on the force of infection in neighbouring subpopulations, albeit the magnitudes are not substantial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lyme borreliosis is the leading tick-related illness in Europe, caused by Borrelia Burgdorferi s.l. Lower Saxony, Germany, including its capital, Hanover, has a higher proportion of infected ticks than central European countries, justifying a research focus on the potential human consequences. The current knowledge gap on human incident infections, particularly in Western Germany, demands serological insights, especially regarding a potentially changing climate-related tick abundance and activity. We determined the immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin M (IgM) serostatuses for 8009 German National Cohort (NAKO) participants from Hanover, examined in 2014–2018. We used an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) as the screening and a line immunoblot as confirmation for the Borrelia Burgdorferi s.l. antibodies. We weighted the seropositivity proportions to estimate general population seropositivity and estimated the force of infection (FOI). Using logistic regression, we investigated risk factors for seropositivity. Seropositivity was 3.0% (IgG) and 2.1% (IgM). The FOI varied with age, sharply increasing in participants aged ≥40 years. We confirmed advancing age and male sex as risk factors. We reported reduced odds for seropositivity with increasing body mass index and depressive symptomatology, respectively, pointing to an impact of lifestyle-related behaviors. The local proportion of seropositive individuals is comparable to previous estimates for northern Germany, indicating a steady seroprevalence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dengue virus (DENV) often circulates endemically. In such settings with high levels of transmission, it remains unclear whether there are risk factors that alter individual infection risk.Methods: We tested blood taken from individuals living in multigenerational households in Kamphaeng Phet province, Thailand for DENV antibodies (N = 2364, mean age 31 years). Seropositivity ranged from 45.4% among those 1-5 years old to 99.5% for those >30 years. Using spatially explicit catalytic models, we estimated that 11.8% of the susceptible population gets infected annually.Results: We found that 37.5% of the variance in seropositivity was explained by unmeasured household-level effects with only 4.2% explained by spatial differences between households. The serostatus of individuals from the same household remained significantly correlated even when separated by up to 15 years in age.Conclusions: These findings show that despite highly endemic transmission, persistent differences in infection risk exist across households, the reasons for which remain unclear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The last influenza pandemic in 2009 emerged from swine and surveillance of swine influenza is important for pandemic preparedness. Movement of swine during husbandry, trade or marketing for slaughter provide opportunities for transfer and genetic reassortment of swine influenza viruses. Over 90% of the swine slaughtered at the central swine abattoir in Hong Kong are imported from farms located in multiple provinces in mainland China. There is opportunity for virus cross‐infection during this transport and slaughter process. Of the 26,980 swabs collected in the slaughterhouse in Hong Kong from 5 January 2012 to 15 December 2016, we analysed sequence data on influenza A (H3N2) virus isolates (n = 174) in conjunction with date of sampling and originating farm. Molecular epidemiology provided evidence of virus cross‐infection between swine originating from different farms during transport. The findings are also suggestive of a virus lineage persisting in a swine farm for over 2 years, although the lack of information on management practices at farm‐level means that alternative explanations cannot be excluded. We used virus serology and isolation data from 4226 pairs of linked serum and swabs collected from the same pig at slaughter from swine originating from Guangdong Province to compare the force of infection (FOI) during transport and within farms. The mean weekly FOI during transport was λt = 0.0286 (95% CI = 0.0211–0.0391) while the weekly FOI in farms was λf = 0.0089 (95% CI = 0.0084–0.0095), assuming a possible exposure duration in farm of 28 weeks, suggesting increased FOI during the transport process. Pigs sourced from farms with high seroprevalence were found to be a significant risk factor (adjusted OR = 2.24, p value =.015) for infection of imported pigs during transport by multivariable logistic regression analysis, whereas pigs with HAI titre of ≥1:40 were associated with a substantial reduction in infection risk by 67% (p value = 0.012). Transport may increase virus cross‐infection rates and provide opportunities for virus reassortment potentially increasing zoonotic risk to those involved in the transportation and slaughtering processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dengue virus infection is a leading health problem in many endemic countries, including Indonesia, characterized by high morbidity and wide spread. It is known that the risk factors that influence the transmission intensity vary among different age groups, which can have implications for dengue control strategies. A time-dependent four - age structure model of dengue transmission was constructed in this study. A vaccination scenario as control strategy was also applied to one of the age groups. Daily incidence data of dengue cases from Santo Borromeus Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia, from 2014 to 2016 was used to estimate the infection rate. We used two indicators to identify the changes in dengue transmission intensity for this period in each age group: the annual force of infection (FoI) and the effective reproduction ratio based on a time-dependent transmission rate. The results showed that the yearly FoI of children (age 0e4 years) increased significantly from 2014 to 2015, at 10.08%. Overall, the highest FoI before and after vaccination occurred in youngsters (age 5e14 years), with a FoI of about 6% per year. In addition, based on the daily effective reproduction ratio, it was found that vaccination of youngsters could reduce the number of dengue cases in Bandung city faster than vaccination of children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pathogens can cause host extinction, affect population dynamics and influence natural selection. Host susceptibility to pathogens can vary by species, demographics and genetics which affect epizootic and population dynamics, ultimately determining population trends and evolution.Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal neuro‐degenerative prion disease of cervids, has varying host susceptibility conferred by polymorphisms of the prion protein gene (PRNP) at codon 96 for white‐tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus.Deer with the homozygous Glycine allele (96GG) are most susceptible and a single Serine allele (96GS/96SS) reduces the risk of infection and mortality.We developed epizootiological models that demonstrate CWD infection and disease‐associated mortality were higher for the more susceptible (96GG) genotype; and, infection was higher for males than females. We used population models to evaluate future shifts in genotype frequencies under alternative harvest and infection rate scenarios.Genetic shifts towards less susceptible genotypes were predicted as CWD prevalence increased during the course of an outbreak. This further increased CWD prevalence, and likely environmental contamination from prion shedding, due to longer incubation periods. Alternative harvest management strategies directly influenced CWD prevalence and spread, the rate of genetic selection and deer population growth.Synthesis and applications. We show that chronic wasting disease (CWD) transmission varied by sex, age class and PRNP genotype, and that CWD disease‐associated mortality varied by genotype. Together, these forces lead to CWD‐mediated genetic selection for a white‐tailed deer population. We predict that genetic selection pressure increases when hunter harvest pressure is lowered, and conversely, increasing hunter harvest can reduce genetic selection rates of antlered deer. Our results support the control of CWD prevalence by aggressive harvest of adult males, because they have the highest infection rates. Our results have strong implications for evolution, disease ecology, geographical spread, disease mitigation and cervid population management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Host species that are particularly abundant, infectious and/or infected tend to contribute disproportionately to symbiont (parasite or mutualist) maintenance in multi-host systems. Therefore, in a facultative multi-host system where two host species had high densities, high symbiont infestation intensities and high infestation prevalence, we expected interspecific transmission rates to be high. Instead, we found that interspecific symbiont transmission rates to caged sentinel hosts were an order of magnitude lower than intraspecific transmission rates in the wild. Using laboratory experiments to decompose transmission rates, we found that opportunities for interspecific transmission were frequent, where interspecific and intraspecific contact rate functions were statistically indistinguishable. However, most interspecific contacts did not lead to transmission events owing to a previously unrecognized transmission barrier: strong host preferences. During laboratory choice experiments, the symbiont preferred staying on or dispersing to its current host species, even though the oligochaete symbiont is a globally distributed host generalist that can survive and reproduce on many snail host species. These surprising results suggest that when managing symbiont transmission, identifying key host species is still important, but it may be equally important to identify and manage transmission barriers that keep potential superspreader host species in check. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Age-stratified serosurvey data are often used to understand spatiotemporal trends in disease incidence and exposure through estimating the Force-of-Infection (FoI). Typically, median or mean FoI estimates are used as the response variable in predictive models, often overlooking the uncertainty in estimated FoI values when fitting models and evaluating their predictive ability. To assess how this uncertainty impact predictions, we compared three approaches with three levels of uncertainty integration. We propose a performance indicator to assess how predictions reflect initial uncertainty.In Colombia, 76 serosurveys (1980-2014) conducted at municipality level provided age-stratified Chagas disease prevalence data. The yearly FoI was estimated at the serosurvey level using a time-varying catalytic model. Environmental, demographic and entomological predictors were used to fit and predict the FoI at municipality level from 1980 to 2010 across Colombia.A stratified bootstrap method was used to fit the models without temporal autocorrelation at the serosurvey level. The predictive ability of each model was evaluated to select the best-fit models within urban, rural and (Amerindian) indigenous settings. Model averaging, with the 10 best-fit models identified, was used to generate predictions.Our analysis shows a risk of overconfidence in model predictions when median estimates of FoI alone are used to fit and evaluate models, failing to account for uncertainty in FoI estimates. Our proposed methodology fully propagates uncertainty in the estimated FoI onto the generated predictions, providing realistic assessments of both central tendency and current uncertainty surrounding exposure to Chagas disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of limited data on dengue virus in Burkina Faso, we conducted 4 consecutive age-stratified longitudinal serologic surveys, ≈6 months apart, among persons 1-55 years of age, during June 2015-March 2017, which included a 2016 outbreak. The seroconversion rate before the serosurvey enrollment was estimated by binomial regression, taking age as the duration of exposure, and assuming constant force of infection (FOI) over age and calendar time. We calculated FOI between consecutive surveys and rate ratios for potentially associated characteristics based on seroconversion using the duration of intervals. Among 2,897 persons at enrollment, 66.3% were IgG-positive, and estimated annual FOI was 5.95%. Of 1,269 enrollees participating in all 4 serosurveys, 438 were IgG-negative at enrollment. The annualized FOI ranged from 10% to 20% (during the 2016 outbreak). Overall, we observed high FOI for dengue. These results could support decision-making about control and preventive measures for dengue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use analytical methods to investigate a continuous vaccination strategy’s effects on the infectious disease dynamics in a closed population and a demographically open population. The methodology and key assumptions are based on Breda et al. (J Biol Dyn 6(Sup2):103–117, 2012). We show that the cumulative force of infection for the closed population and the endemic force of infection in the demographically open population can be reduced significantly by combining two factors: the vaccine effectiveness and the vaccination rate. The impact of these factors on the force of infection can transform an endemic steady state into a disease-free state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Household contacts (HHCs) of TB patients are at high risk of developing evidence of latent TB infection (LTBI) and active disease from the index patient. We estimated the age-specific prevalence of LTBI and the force of infection (FI), as a measure of recent transmission, among HHCs of active TB patients. Methods A cross-sectional analysis of HHCs of pulmonary TB patients enrolled in a prospective study, 'CTRIUMPh', was conducted at two sites in India. LTBI was defined as either a positive tuberculin skin test (induration ≥5 mm) or QuantiFERON–Gold in tube test (value ≥0.35 IU/ml) and was stratified by age. FI, which is a measure of recent transmission of infection and calculated using changes in age-specific prevalence rates at specific ages, was calculated. Factors associated with LTBI were determined by logistic regression models. Results Of 1020 HHCs of 441 adult pulmonary TB cases, there were 566 (55%) females and 289 (28%) children aged ≤15 y. While screening for the study 3% of HHC were diagnosed with active TB. LTBI prevalence among HHCs of pulmonary TB was 47% at <6 y, 53% between 6–14 y and 78% between 15–45 y. FI increased significantly with age, from 0.4 to 1.15 in the HHCs cohort (p=0.05). Conclusion This study observed an increased prevalence of LTBI and FI among older children and young adults recently exposed to infectious TB in the household. In addition to awareness of coughing etiquette and general hygiene, expanding access to TB preventive therapy to all HHCs, including older children, may be beneficial to achieve TB elimination by 2035. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 2015 and 2017, Zika virus spread rapidly through populations in the Americas with no prior exposure to the disease. Although climate is a known determinant of many Aedes-transmitted diseases, it is currently unclear whether climate was a major driver of the Zika epidemic and how climate might have differentially impacted outbreak intensity across locations within Latin America. Here, we estimated force of infection for Zika over time and across provinces in Latin America using a time-varying susceptible–infectious–recovered model. Climate factors explained less than 5% of the variation in weekly transmission intensity in a spatio-temporal model of force of infection by province over time, suggesting that week to week transmission within provinces may be too stochastic to predict. By contrast, climate and population factors were highly predictive of spatial variation in the presence and intensity of Zika transmission among provinces, with pseudo-R2 values between 0.33 and 0.60. Temperature, temperature range, rainfall and population size were the most important predictors of where Zika transmission occurred, while rainfall, relative humidity and a nonlinear effect of temperature were the best predictors of Zika intensity and burden. Surprisingly, force of infection was greatest in locations with temperatures near 24°C, much lower than previous estimates from mechanistic models, potentially suggesting that existing vector control programmes and/or prior exposure to other mosquito-borne diseases may have limited transmission in locations most suitable for Aedes aegypti, the main vector of Zika, dengue and chikungunya viruses in Latin America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

National data on dengue notifications do not capture all dengue infections and do not reflect the true intensity of disease transmission. To assess the true dengue infection rate and disease control efforts in Singapore, we conducted age-stratified serosurveys among residents after a 2013 outbreak that was the largest dengue outbreak on record. The age-weighted prevalence of dengue immunoglobulin G among residents was 49.8% (95% confidence interval: 48.4, 51.1) in 2013 and 48.6% (95% confidence interval: 47.0, 50.0) in 2017; prevalence increased with age. Combining these data with those from previous serosurveys, the year-on-year estimates of the dengue force of infection from 1930 to 2017 revealed a significant decrease from the late 1960s to the mid-1990s, after which the force of infection remained stable at approximately 10 per 1,000 persons per year. The reproduction number (R 0) had also declined since the 1960s. The reduction in dengue transmission may be attributed to the sustained national vector program and partly to a change in the age structure of the population. The improved estimated ratio of notified cases to true infections, from 1:14 in 2005–2009 to 1:6 in 2014–2017, signifies that the national notification system, which relies on diagnosed cases, has improved over time. The data also suggest that the magnitudes of dengue epidemics cannot be fairly compared across calendar years and that the current disease control program remains applicable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bats are reservoirs for emerging human pathogens, including Hendra and Nipah henipaviruses and Ebola and Marburg filoviruses. These viruses demonstrate predictable patterns in seasonality and age structure across multiple systems; previous work suggests that they may circulate in Madagascar's endemic fruit bats, which are widely consumed as human food.We aimed to (a) document the extent of henipa‐ and filovirus exposure among Malagasy fruit bats, (b) explore seasonality in seroprevalence and serostatus in these bat populations and (c) compare mechanistic hypotheses for possible transmission dynamics underlying these data.To this end, we amassed and analysed a unique dataset documenting longitudinal serological henipa‐ and filovirus dynamics in three Madagascar fruit bat species.We uncovered serological evidence of exposure to Hendra‐/Nipah‐related henipaviruses in Eidolon dupreanum, Pteropus rufus and Rousettus madagascariensis, to Cedar‐related henipaviruses in E. dupreanum and R. madagascariensis and to Ebola‐related filoviruses in P. rufus and R. madagascariensis. We demonstrated significant seasonality in population‐level seroprevalence and individual serostatus for multiple viruses across these species, linked to the female reproductive calendar. An age‐structured subset of the data highlighted evidence of waning maternal antibodies in neonates, increasing seroprevalence in young and decreasing seroprevalence late in life. Comparison of mechanistic epidemiological models fit to these data offered support for transmission hypotheses permitting waning antibodies but retained immunity in adult‐age bats.Our findings suggest that bats may seasonally modulate mechanisms of pathogen control, with consequences for population‐level transmission. Additionally, we narrow the field of candidate transmission hypotheses by which bats are presumed to host and transmit potentially zoonotic viruses globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is a zoonotic disease transmitted from dromedary camels to people, which can result in outbreaks with human-to-human transmission. Because it is a subclinical infection in camels, epidemiological measures other than prevalence are challenging to assess. This study estimated the force of infection (FOI) of MERS-CoV in camel populations from age-stratified serological data. A cross-sectional study of MERS-CoV was conducted in Kenya from July 2016 to July 2017. Seroprevalence was stratified into four age groups: <1, 1–2, 2–3 and >3 years old. Age-independent and age-dependent linear and quadratic generalised linear models were used to estimate FOI in pastoral and ranching camel herds. Models were compared based on computed AIC values. Among pastoral herds, the age-dependent quadratic FOI was the best fit model, while the age-independent FOI was the best fit for the ranching herd data. FOI provides an indirect estimate of infection risk, which is especially valuable where direct estimates of incidence and other measures of infection are challenging to obtain. The FOIs estimated in this study provide important insight about MERS-CoV dynamics in the reservoir species, and contribute to our understanding of the zoonotic risks of this important public health threat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dengue virus (DENV) is the most prevalent human vector-borne viral disease. The force of infection (FoI), the rate at which susceptible individuals are infected in a population, is an important metric for infectious disease modeling. Understanding how and why the FoI of DENV changes over time is critical for developing immunization and vector control policies. We used age-stratified seroprevalence data from 12 years of the Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study in Nicaragua to estimate the annual FoI of DENV from 1994 to 2015. Seroprevalence data revealed a change in the rate at which children acquire DENV-specific immunity: in 2004, 50% of children age >4 years were seropositive, but by 2015, 50% seropositivity was reached only by age 11 years. We estimated a spike in the FoI in 1997-1998 and 1998-1999 and a gradual decline thereafter, and children age <4 years experienced a lower FoI. Two hypotheses to explain the change in the FoI were tested: (i) a transition from introduction of specific DENV serotypes to their endemic transmission and (ii) a population demographic transition due to declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy. We used mathematical models to simulate these hypotheses. We show that the initial high FoI can be explained by the introduction of DENV-3 in 1994-1998, and that the overall gradual decline in the FoI can be attributed to demographic shifts. Changes in immunity and demographics strongly impacted DENV transmission in Nicaragua. Populationlevel measures of transmission intensity are dynamic and thus challenging to use to guide vaccine implementation locally and globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The timing and origin of Zika virus (ZIKV) introduction in Brazil has been the subject of controversy. Initially, it was assumed that the virus was introduced during the FIFA World Cup in June-July 2014. Then, it was speculated that ZIKV may have been introduced by athletes from French Polynesia (FP) who competed in a canoe race in Rio de Janeiro in August 2014. We attempted to apply mathematical models to determine the most likely time window of ZIKV introduction in Brazil. Given that the timing and origin of ZIKV introduction in Brazil may be a politically sensitive issue, its determination (or the provision of a plausible hypothesis) may help to prevent undeserved blame. We used a simple mathematical model to estimate the force of infection and the corresponding individual probability of being infected with ZIKV in FP. Taking into account the air travel volume from FP to Brazil between October 2013 and March 2014, we estimated the expected number of infected travellers arriving at Brazilian airports during that period. During the period between December 2013 and February 2014, 51 individuals travelled from FP airports to 11 Brazilian cities. Basing on the calculated force of ZIKV infection (the per capita rate of new infections per time unit) and risk of infection (probability of at least one new infection), we estimated that 18 (95% CI 12-22) individuals who arrived in seven of the evaluated cities were infected. When basic ZIKV reproduction numbers greater than one were assumed in the seven evaluated cities, ZIKV could have been introduced in any one of the cities. Based on the force of infection in FP, basic reproduction ZIKV number in selected Brazilian cities, and estimated travel volume, we concluded that ZIKV was most likely introduced and established in Brazil by infected travellers arriving from FP in the period between October 2013 and March 2014, which was prior to the two aforementioned sporting events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding both contact and probability of transmission given contact are key to managing wildlife disease. However, wildlife disease research tends to focus on contact heterogeneity, in part because the probability of transmission given contact is notoriously difficult to measure. Here, we present a first step towards empirically investigating the probability of transmission given contact in free-ranging wildlife., We used measured contact networks to test whether bighorn sheep demographic states vary systematically in infectiousness or susceptibility to Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae, an agent responsible for bighorn sheep pneumonia., We built covariates using contact network metrics, demographic information and infection status, and used logistic regression to relate those covariates to lamb survival. The covariate set contained degree, a classic network metric describing node centrality, but also included covariates breaking the network metrics into subsets that differentiated between contacts with yearlings, ewes with lambs, and ewes without lambs, and animals with and without active infections., Yearlings, ewes with lambs, and ewes without lambs showed similar group membership patterns, but direct interactions involving touch occurred at a rate two orders of magnitude higher between lambs and reproductive ewes than between any classes of adults or yearlings, and one order of magnitude higher than direct interactions between multiple lambs., Although yearlings and non-reproductive bighorn ewes regularly carried M. ovipneumoniae, our models suggest that a contact with an infected reproductive ewe had approximately five times the odds of producing a lamb mortality event of an identical contact with an infected dry ewe or yearling. Consequently, management actions targeting infected animals might lead to unnecessary removal of young animals that carry pathogens but rarely transmit., This analysis demonstrates a simple logistic regression approach for testing a priori hypotheses about variation in the odds of transmission given contact for free-ranging hosts, and may be broadly applicable for investigations in wildlife disease ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article overviews the dynamics of disease transmission in one-host– one-parasite systems. Transmission is the result of interacting host and pathogen processes, encapsulated with the environment in a ‘transmission triangle’. Multiple transmission modes and their epidemiological consequences are often not understood because the direct measurement of transmission is difficult. However, its different components can be analysed using nonlinear transmission functions, contact matrices and networks. A particular challenge is to develop such functions for spatially extended systems. This is illustrated for vector transmission where a ‘perception kernel’ approach is developed that incorporates vector behaviour in response to host spacing. A major challenge is understanding the relative merits of the large number of approaches to quantifying transmission. The evolution of transmission mode itself has been a rather neglected topic, but is important in the context of understanding disease emergence and genetic variation in pathogens. Disease impacts many biological processes such as community stability, the evolution of sex and speciation, yet the importance of different transmission modes in these processes is not understood. Broader approaches and ideas to disease transmission are important in the public health realm for combating newly emerging infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our ability to infer unobservable disease-dynamic processes such as force of infection (infection hazard for susceptible hosts) has transformed our understanding of disease transmission mechanisms and capacity to predict disease dynamics. Conventional methods for inferring FOI estimate a time-averaged value and are based on population-level processes. Because many pathogens exhibit epidemic cycling and FOI is the result of processes acting across the scales of individuals and populations, a flexible framework that extends to epidemic dynamics and links within-host processes to FOI is needed. Specifically, within-host antibody kinetics in wildlife hosts can be short-lived and produce patterns that are repeatable across individuals, suggesting individual-level antibody concentrations could be used to infer time since infection and hence FOI. Using simulations and case studies (influenza A in lesser snow geese and Yersinia pestis in coyotes), we argue that with careful experimental and surveillance design, the population-level FOI signal can be recovered from individual-level antibody kinetics, despite substantial individual-level variation. In addition to improving inference, the cross-scale quantitative antibody approach we describe can reveal insights into drivers of individual-based variation in disease response, and the role of poorly understood processes such as secondary infections, in population-level dynamics of disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has circulated in China and caused yearly outbreak. To understand the transmission of the disease and to assess the spatial variation in cases reported, we examined age-specific transmission characteristics and reporting rates of HFMD for 31 provinces in mainland China. Methods: We first analyzed incidence spatial patterns and age-specific incidence patterns using dataset from 2008 to 2012. Transmission characteristics were estimated based on catalytic model. Reporting rates were estimated using a simple mass action model from "Time Series Susceptible Infectious Recovered" (TSIR) modeling. Results: We found age-specific spatial incidence patterns: age-specific proportions of HFMD cases varied geographically in China; larger case percentage was among children of 3-5 years old in the northern part of China and was among children of 0-2 years old in the southern part of China. Our analysis results revealed that: 1) reporting rates and transmission characteristics including the average age at infection, the force of infection and the basic reproduction number varied geographically in China; 2) patterns of the age-specific force of infection for 30 provinces were similar to that of childhood infections in developed countries; the age group that had the highest infection risk was 3-5 years old in 30 provinces, and 10-14 years old in Tibet; 3) a large difference in HFMD transmission existed between northwest region and southeast region; 4) transmission characteristics determined incidence patterns: the higher the disease transmission in a province, the earlier the annual seasonality started and the more case percentage was among children 0-2 years old and less among 3-5 years old. Conclusion: Because HFMD has higher transmission than most childhood infections reported, high effective vaccine coverage is needed to substantially reduce HFMD incidence. Control measures before the vaccine implementation should focus on 2-6 years old children in 30 provinces and 10-14 years old children in Tibet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chronic wasting disease ( CWD) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease affecting free-ranging and captive cervids that now occurs in 24 U.S. states and two Canadian provinces. Despite the potential threat of CWD to deer populations, little is known about the rates of infection and mortality caused by this disease. We used epidemiological models to estimate the force of infection and disease-associated mortality for white-tailed deer in the Wisconsin and Illinois CWD outbreaks. Models were based on age-prevalence data corrected for bias in aging deer using the tooth wear and replacement method. Both male and female deer in the Illinois outbreak had higher corrected age-specific prevalence with slightly higher female infection than deer in the Wisconsin outbreak. Corrected ages produced more complex models with different infection and mortality parameters than those based on apparent prevalence. We found that adult male deer have a more than threefold higher risk of CWD infection than female deer. Males also had higher disease mortality than female deer. As a result, CWD prevalence was twofold higher in adult males than females. We also evaluated the potential impacts of alternative contact structures on transmission dynamics in Wisconsin deer. Results suggested that transmission of CWD among male deer during the nonbreeding season may be a potential mechanism for producing higher rates of infection and prevalence characteristically found in males. However, alternatives based on high environmental transmission and transmission from females to males during the breeding season may also play a role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Serological data are increasingly being used to monitor malaria transmission intensity and have been demonstrated to be particularly useful in areas of low transmission where traditional measures such as EIR and parasite prevalence are limited. The seroconversion rate (SCR) is usually estimated using catalytic models in which the measured antibody levels are used to categorize individuals as seropositive or seronegative. One limitation of this approach is the requirement to impose a fixed cut-of to distinguish seropositive and negative individuals. Furthermore, the continuous variation in antibody levels is ignored thereby potentially reducing the precision of the estimate. Methods: An age-specific density model which mimics antibody acquisition and loss was developed to make full use of the information provided by serological measures of antibody levels. This was fitted to blood-stage antibody density data from 12 villages at varying transmission intensity in Northern Tanzania to estimate the exposure rate as an alternative measure of transmission intensity. Results: The results show a high correlation between the exposure rate estimates obtained and the estimated SCR obtained from a catalytic model (r = 0.95) and with two derived measures of EIR (r = 0.74 and r = 0.81). Estimates of exposure rate obtained with the density model were also more precise than those derived from catalytic models. Conclusion: This approach, if validated across different epidemiological settings, could be a useful alternative framework for quantifying transmission intensity, which makes more complete use of serological data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The last decade has seen an expansion of national schistosomiasis control programmes in Africa based on large-scale preventative chemotherapy. In many areas this has resulted in considerable reductions in infection and morbidity levels in treated individuals. In this paper, we quantify changes in the force of infection (FOI), defined here as the per (human) host parasite establishment rate, to ascertain the impact on transmission of some of these programmes under the umbrella of the Schistosomiasis Control Initiative (SCI). Methods: A previous model for the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma mansoni was adapted here to S. haematobium. These models were fitted to longitudinal cohort (infection intensity) monitoring and evaluation data. Changes in the FOI following up to three annual rounds of praziquantel were estimated for Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) according to country, baseline endemicity and schistosome species. Since schistosomiasis transmission is known to be highly focal, changes in the FOI at a finer geographical scale (that of sentinel site) were also estimated for S. mansoni in Uganda. Results: Substantial and statistically significant reductions in the FOI relative to baseline were recorded in the majority of, but not all, combinations of country, parasite species, and endemicity areas. At the finer geographical scale assessed within Uganda, marked heterogeneity in the magnitude and direction of the relative changes in FOI was observed that would not have been appreciated by a coarser-scale analysis. Conclusions: Reductions in the rate at which humans acquire schistosomes have been achieved in many areas of SSA countries assisted by the SCI, while challenges in effectively reducing transmission persist in others. Understanding the underlying heterogeneity in the impact and performance of the control intervention at the level of the transmission site will become increasingly important for programmes transitioning from morbidity reduction to elimination of infection. Such analyses will require a fine-scale approach. The lack of association found between programmatic variables, such as therapeutic treatment coverage (recorded at district level) and changes in FOI (at sentinel site level) is discussed and recommendations are made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a model describing the dynamics of an infectious disease for which the force of infection is diminished through a reaction of the susceptible to the number of infected individuals. We show that, even though the structure of the model is a simple one, different kinds of backward bifurcation can appear for values of the basic reproductive number bigger than one. Under some conditions on the parameters, multiple endemic equilibria may appear for values of the basic reproductive number less or greater than one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dengue is considered one of the most important vector-borne infection, affecting almost half of the world population with 50 to 100 million cases every year. In this paper, we present one of the simplest models that can encapsulate all the important variables related to vector control of dengue fever. The model considers the human population, the adult mosquito population and the population of immature stages, which includes eggs, larvae and pupae. The model also considers the vertical transmission of dengue in the mosquitoes and the seasonal variation in the mosquito population. From this basic model describing the dynamics of dengue infection, we deduce thresholds for avoiding the introduction of the disease and for the elimination of the disease. In particular, we deduce a Basic Reproduction Number for dengue that includes parameters related to the immature stages of the mosquito. By neglecting seasonal variation, we calculate the equilibrium values of the model's variables. We also present a sensitivity analysis of the impact of four vector-control strategies on the Basic Reproduction Number, on the Force of Infection and on the human prevalence of dengue. Each of the strategies was studied separately from the others. The analysis presented allows us to conclude that of the available vector control strategies, adulticide application is the most effective, followed by the reduction of the exposure to mosquito bites, locating and destroying breeding places and, finally, larvicides. Current vector-control methods are concentrated on mechanical destruction of mosquitoes' breeding places. Our results suggest that reducing the contact between vector and hosts (biting rates) is as efficient as the logistically difficult but very efficient adult mosquito's control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dengue virus has traditionally caused substantial morbidity and mortality among children less than 15 years of age in Southeast Asia. Over the last 2 decades, a significant increase in the mean age of cases has been reported, and a once pediatric disease now causes substantial burden among the adult population. An age-stratified serological study (n = 1,736) was conducted in 2010 among schoolchildren in the Mueang Rayong district of Thailand, where a similar study had been conducted in 1980/1981. Serotype-specific forces of infection (λ(t)) and basic reproductive numbers (R0) of dengue were estimated for the periods 1969–1980 and 1993–2010. Despite a significant increase in the age at exposure and a decrease in λ(t) from 0.038/year to 0.019/year, R0 changed only from 3.3 to 3.2. Significant heterogeneity was observed across subdistricts and schools, with R0 ranging between 1.7 and 6.8. These findings are consistent with the idea that the observed age shift might be a consequence of the demographic transition in Thailand. Changes in critical vaccination fractions, estimated by using R0, have not accompanied the increase in age at exposure. These results have implications for dengue control interventions because multiple countries in Southeast Asia are undergoing similar demographic transitions. It is likely that dengue will never again be a disease exclusively of children. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Pneumococcal vaccine-naïve mother-child dyads in South Africa had nasopharyngeal swabs taken 9 times within the first 2 years of the children's lives between January 2007 and May 2009. To quantify the strength of the association of serotype-specific carriage in mother-child dyads, a stochastic transmission model was fitted to the data. Children were more susceptible to individual serotypes included in the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) transmitted by their mothers than vice versa; however, children infected their mothers with these serotypes more frequently than mothers infected children. The child-to-mother steady-state forces of pneumococcal acquisition were between 0.36 and 3.29 (per 1,000 days) compared with 0.06–0.51 for mother-to-child transmission. Although children of mothers infected with human immunodeficiency virus were more often exposed to PCV7 serotypes by their mothers, their risk of acquisition remained low compared with the risk of child-to-mother transmission. Mothers acquired pneumococci at lower rates (per 1,000 days) from unmeasured exposure within families and in the wider community (range, 0.12–1.69 per 1,000 days) than did children (range, 1.10–5.21 per 1,000 days). Pneumococcal immunization of young children is expected to have an indirect effect of reducing PCV7 serotype maternal colonization and possibly disease even in settings such as ours, in which there is a high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus–infected mothers. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: As malaria transmission intensity approaches zero, measuring it becomes progressively more difficult and inefficient because parasite-positive individuals are hard to detect. This situation may arise shortly before achieving local elimination, or during surveillance post-elimination to prevent reintroduction. Antibody responses against the parasite last longer than the infections themselves. This "footprint" of infection may thus be used for assessing transmission intensity. A statistical approach is presented for measuring the seroconversion rate (SCR), a correlate of the force of infection, from individual-level longitudinal data on antibody titres in an area of low Plasmodium falciparum transmission Methods: Blood samples were collected from 160 Indonesian schoolchildren every month for six months. Titres of antibodies against AMA-1 and MSP-119 antigens of P. falciparum were measured using ELISA. The distribution of antibody titres among seronegative and -positive individuals, respectively, was estimated by comparing the titres from the study data (a mixture of both seropositive and -negative individuals) with titres from a (unexposed) negative control group of Indonesian individuals. Two Markov-Chain models for the transition of individuals between serological states were fitted to individual anti-PfAMA-1 or anti-PfMSP-1 titre time series using Bayesian Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC). This yielded estimates of SCR as well as of the duration of seropositivity. Results: A posterior median SCR of 0.02 (Pf AMA-1) and 0.09 (PfMSP-1) person-1 year-1 was estimated, with credible intervals ranging from 1E-4 to 0.2 person-1 year-1. This level of transmission intensity is at the lower range of what can reliably be measured with the present study size. A Bayesian test for seroconversion of an individual between two observations is presented and used to identify the subjects who have most likely experienced an infection. Furthermore, the theoretical limits of measuring transmission intensity, and how these depend on duration and size of a study as well as on transmission intensity itself, is illustrated. Conclusions: This analysis shows that it is possible to measure SCR's from individual-level longitudinal data on antibody titres. In addition, individual seroconversion events can be identified, which can be useful in assessing interruption of transmission. Analyses of further serological datasets using the present method are required to improve and validate it. This includes measurement of the duration of antibody responses, how it depends on host age or cumulative exposure, or on the particular antigen used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimating disease transmission in wildlife populations is critical to understand host-pathogen dynamics, predict disease risks and prioritize surveillance activities. However, obtaining reliable estimates for free-ranging populations is extremely challenging. In particular, disease surveillance programs may routinely miss the onset or end of epizootics and peak prevalence, limiting the ability to evaluate infectious processes., We used profile likelihood to estimate the force of infection ( FOI) in a low pathogenic avian influenza virus ( LPAIv) epizootic model from censored time series of LPAIv prevalence in hatch-year waterfowl (order Anseriformes) at postbreeding and migration sites in North America., We found a mean LPAIv FOI of 0·12 day−1 [95% CI, 0·00-0·39], corresponding to an incidence rate of 0·11 day−1, with geographic heterogeneity (min-max: 0·02-0·23 day−1) among study sites. These high infection rates indicate that most hatch-year waterfowl are likely infected with LPAIv early in the fall migration., Comparison of model-predicted and observed immunity confirmed our assumption of naïve hatch-year waterfowl and suggested long-term immunity (>6 months) for adults., Using the mean LPAIv incidence rate, we predict a shorter and lower epizootic curve for highly pathogenic avian influenza virus ( HPAIv; 5 weeks with peak prevalence of 28% and 30% mortality) than LPAIv (8 weeks with peak prevalence of 50%). These findings indicate it is harder to detect HPAIv than LPAIv with swabs from live birds, which are commonly used during disease surveillance., Synthesis and applications. Our study highlights the potential of integrating incomplete surveillance data with epizootic models to quantify disease transmission and immunity. This modelling approach provides an important tool to understand spatial and temporal epizootic dynamics and inform disease surveillance. Our findings suggest focusing highly pathogenic avian influenza virus ( HPAIv) surveillance on postbreeding areas where mortality of immunologically naïve hatch-year birds is most likely to occur, and collecting serology to enhance HPAIv detection. Our modelling approach can integrate various types of disease data facilitating its use with data from other surveillance programs (as illustrated by the estimation of infection rate during an HPAIv outbreak in mute swans Cygnus olor in Europe). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Children carry the main burden of morbidity and mortality caused by dengue. Children spend a considerable amount of their day at school; hence strategies that reduce human-mosquito contact to protect against the day-biting habits of Aedes mosquitoes at schools, such as insecticide-impregnated uniforms, could be an effective prevention strategy. Methodology: We used mathematical models to calculate the risk of dengue infection based on force of infection taking into account the estimated proportion of mosquito bites that occur in school and the proportion of school time that children wear the impregnated uniforms. Principal findings: The use of insecticide-impregnated uniforms has efficacy varying from around 6% in the most pessimistic estimations, to 55% in the most optimistic scenarios simulated. Conclusions: Reducing contact between mosquito bites and human hosts via insecticide-treated uniforms during school time is theoretically effective in reducing dengue incidence and may be a valuable additional tool for dengue control in school-aged children. The efficacy of this strategy, however, is dependent on the compliance of the target population in terms of proper and consistent wearing of uniforms and, perhaps more importantly, the proportion of bites inflicted by the Aedes population during school time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of threshold values in order to diagnose individual subjects as being ‘susceptible’ or ‘infected or recovered/immune’ for a specific infection is virtually always prone to false positive, false negative or inconclusive classifications. Such misclassifications might lead to biased estimates for epidemiological parameters, such as the prevalence and the force of infection. In this article, we propose to estimate these epidemiological parameters directly from antibody titres, using an underlying mixture model. The method is applied to estimate the Salmonella serological prevalence in pigs and the age-dependent force of infection using serological data on the Varicella-Zoster virus (VZV) in humans. The threshold and direct method are compared through a simulation study. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The aim of this paper is to show that a large class of epidemic models, with both demography and non-permanent immunity incorporated in a rather general manner, can be mathematically formulated as a scalar renewal equation for the force of infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The kernel of modelling transmission dynamics of infectious diseases lies in constructing the force of infection (FOI). Traditionally, it was based on mass-action law. In this paper, we show, based on survey data of Escherichia coli O157 infection on Scottish cattle farms, that the actual form of FOI deviates greatly from mass-action law. Further, control effectiveness deviates qualitatively: the epidemic of mass-action FOI can be controlled with a control effort larger than the so-called herd immunity, while the epidemic inferred from the survey data of E. coli O157 infection was shown to be difficult to control. This indicates that, at least for E. coli O157 infection on cattle farms, it is risky to rely on models of transmission dynamics that were based on mass-action law to design the optimal intervention programme for infectious diseases. This suggests the importance of collecting epidemic data and model selection from data-driven models to infer the most likely model of transmission dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Iran, similar to other countries, had faced H1N1 flu outbreak in 2009. In order to assess its transmission dynamic, we estimated its force of infection (β) and basic reproductive number (R0). Methods: Within a middle size primary school in Iran, we actively followed students and detected flu-like syndrome among students and their families in the first three months of academic year; October through December 2009. We estimated the probability of disease transmission within families (β) fitting random effects Poisson regression model. Moreover, R0 within the school was computed based on the number of detected cases. Results: In 452 students, 204 influenza-like syndromes were detected. The estimated β within families was 0.10; increasing one infectious member within each family was associated with 30% increase in this number. The estimated R0 for the first month was 1.21 (95% C.I.: 0.99, 1.47); corresponding numbers for the first two and first three months were 1.28 (95% C.I.: 1.05, 1.54) and 1.32 (95% C.I.: 1.11, 1.59), respectively. Conclusion: It seems that the dynamic transmission of H1N1 virus was more or less comparable with that in other seasonal species. Our findings showed that the virus mainly circulated among students within schools. In addition, it seems that the transmission rate within families was relatively high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding age-specific differences in infection rates can be important in predicting the magnitude of and mortality in outbreaks and targeting age groups for vaccination programmes. Standard methods to estimate age-specific rates assume that the age-specific force of infection is constant in time. However, this assumption may easily be violated in the face of a highly variable outbreak history, as recently observed for acute immunizing infections like measles, in strongly seasonal settings. Here we investigate the biases that result from ignoring such fluctuations in incidence and present a correction based on the epidemic history. We apply the method to data from a measles outbreak in Niamey, Niger and show that, despite a bimodal age distribution of cases, the estimated age-specific force of infection is unimodal and concentrated in young children (<5 years) consistent with previous analyses of age-specific rates in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The aim of the study was to measure risk of HIV and HCV infection among injecting drug users (IDUs) through force of infection (FOl) models in three cities of the Russian Federation and assess the value of behavioural data and FOl in predicting risk of infection as a method of second-generation surveillance. Methods: FOI models were fitted to prevalence data collected through an anonymous, cross-sectional community-recruited survey of IDUs with oral fluid sample collection for antibodies to HIV and HCV. Risk of infection was estimated from FOI estimates obtained by fitting a model to prevalence data by length of injecting career for each city and then overall. Risk behaviours were examined by injecting career length. Results: A total of 1473 IDUs were recruited. Prevalence of HIV was 8.1% (95% CI 6.7-9.6%) and HCV 63.4% (95% Cl 60.9-65.9%). A higher FOl in new initiates to injecting (injecting career length <1 year) was found for both HIV and HCV compared with experienced IDUs (injecting career length <5 years). Increased risk of infection was not corroborated by injecting risk behaviours among new initiates into injecting (n=38). Only 5.7% (n=2) reported receptive sharing in the last 4 weeks, 57.9% (n = 22) sharing any injecting paraphernalia, 2.6% (n = 1) frontloading and 8.5% (n=3) ever injecting with used needles/syringes. However,.29% of new initiates reported exchanging sex in the last 4 weeks (29%) compared with 11% long term IDUs. Conclusions: FOl models can play an important role in surveillance of HIV but caution is needed in the interpretation of behavioural data for predicting current or future risk of HIV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article provides information on the force of infection issue of the upper respiratory tract disease (URTD) and its impact to the gopher tortoises' survivability. It mentions the morbid impact of the URTD to the population of wild animals, particularly the gopher tortoises. Researchers have determined that the force of infection and its impact to these creatures remained uncertain. In addition, the researchers have found out that the seropositivity of these tortoises have higher chance to survive from the URTD compared to the tortoise with no seropositivity.

A number of studies have been conducted in injecting drug user (IDU) populations in Europe, in which the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) was measured together with demographic and epidemiological information such as age and the age at first injection. A measure of the risk of becoming infected is the force of infection (FOI), defined as the per capita rate at which susceptible individuals acquire infection. The objective of this study was to estimate the FOI and its heterogeneity for HBV, HCV and HIV (where available) for IDU populations in a number of countries in Europe. Data were obtained from five countries: Belgium, the United Kingdom, Spain and Italy, and the Czech Republic, which provided two data sets. The model describes the prevalence of infection as a function of the FOI that may vary over time or duration of IDU. In addition to this, if two or more infections were being considered then a parameter describing the potential heterogeneity of the FOI within the IDU population was also estimated. The results here add to the growing evidence that new initiates to injecting are at an increased risk of blood-borne viral infection compared with more experienced IDUs. In addition, there is evidence of individual heterogeneity of FOI estimates within the overall IDU populations. This suggests that different proportions of individuals in each population are at increased risk of infection compared with the rest of the population. Future interventions should identify and target these individuals. Moreover, changes over time in individual heterogeneity estimates of IDU populations may provide an indicator for measuring intervention impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowing how to control a pathogen that infects more than one host species is of increasing importance because the incidence of such infections grows with continuing environmental change. Of concern are infections transmitted from wildlife to humans or livestock. To determine which options are available to control a pathogen in these circumstances, we analyze the pathogen invasion matrix for the multihost susceptible-infected-susceptible model. We highlight the importance of both community structure and the column sum or row sum index, an indicator of both force of infection and community stability. We derive a set of guidelines for constructing culling strategies and suggest a hybrid strategy that has the advantages of both the bottom-up and the top-down approaches, which we study in some detail. The analysis holds for an arbitrary number of host species, enabling the analysis of large-scale ecological systems and systems with spatial dimensions. We test the robustness of our methods by making two changes in the structure of the underlying dynamic model, adding direct competition and introducing frequency-dependent infection transmission. In particular, we show that the introduction of an additional host can eliminate the pathogen rather than eliminate the resident host. The discussion is illustrated with a reference to bovine tuberculosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on sero-prevalence data of rubella, mumps in the UK and varicella in Belgium, we show how the force of infection, the age-specific rate at which susceptible individuals contract infection, can be estimated using generalized linear mixed models (McCulloch & Searle, 2001). Modelling the dependency of the force of infection on age by penalized splines, which involve fixed and random effects, allows us to use generalized linear mixed models techniques to estimate both the cumulative probability of being infected before a given age and the force of infection. Moreover, these models permit an automatic selection of the smoothing parameter. The smoothness of the estimated force of infection can be influenced by the number of knots and the degree of the penalized spline used. To determine these, a different number of knots and different degrees are used and the results are compared to establish this sensitivity. Simulations with a different number of knots and polynomial spline bases of different degrees suggest - for estimating the force of infection from serological data - the use of a quadratic penalized spline based on about 10 knots. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A three variable mathematical model describing the propagation of an infectious disease in a human population is proposed and analyzed. The human population is assumed to live in two distinct habitats with no inter-habitat migration. The infectious agent disperse randomly among the said habitats. Methods of upper and lower solutions are used to establish the existence of traveling wave solutions connecting the trivial with the nontrivial equilibrium. The critical wave speed required for the existence of such wave solutions has been found out and shown to depend on different system parameters together with the dispersal rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In veterinary epidemiology, we are often confronted with hierarchical or clustered data. Typically animals are grouped within herds, and consequently we cannot ignore the possibility of animals within herds being more alike than between herds. Based on a serological survey of bovine herpes virus type 1 in cattle, we describe a method for the estimation of herd-specific rates at which susceptible animals acquire the infection at different ages. In contrast with the population-averaged force of infection, this method allows us to model the herd-specific force of infection, allowing investigation of the variability between herds. A random-effects approach is used to account for the correlation in the data, allowing us to study both population-averaged and herd-specific force of infection. In contrast, generalized estimating equations can be used when interest is only in the population-averaged force of infection. Further, a flexible predictor model is needed to describe the dependence of covariates appropriately. Fractional polynomials as proposed by Royston and Altman offer such flexibility. However, the flexibility of this model should be restricted, since only positive forces of infection have a meaningful interpretation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Researchers and wildlife managers increasingly find themselves in situations where they must deal with infectious wildlife diseases, such as chronic wasting disease, brucellosis, tuberculosis, and West Nile virus. Managers are often charged with designing and implementing control strategies, and researchers often seek to determine factors that influence and control the disease process. All of these activities require the ability to measure some indication of a disease's foothold in a population and evaluate factors affecting that foothold. The most common type of data available to managers and researchers is apparent prevalence data. Apparent disease prevalence, the proportion of animals in a sample that are positive for the disease, might seem like a natural measure of disease's foothold, but several properties, in particular, its dependency on age structure and the biasing effects of disease-associated mortality, make it less than ideal. In quantitative epidemiology, the ‘force of infection,’ or infection hazard, is generally the preferred parameter for measuring a disease's foothold, and it can be viewed as the most appropriate way to ‘adjust’ apparent prevalence for age structure. The typical ecology curriculum includes little exposure to quantitative epidemiological concepts such as cumulative incidence, apparent prevalence, and the force of infection. The goal of this paper is to present these basic epidemiological concepts and resulting models in an ecological context and to illustrate how they can be applied to understand and address basic epidemiological questions. We demonstrate a practical approach to solving the heretofore intractable problem of fitting general force-of-infection models to wildlife prevalence data using a generalized regression approach. We apply the procedures to Mycobacterium bovis (bovine tuberculosis) prevalence in bison (Bison bison) in Wood Buffalo National Park, Canada, and demonstrate strong age dependency in the force of infection as well as an increased mortality hazard in positive animals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In industrialized countries, transmission of hepatitis C occurs primarily through injecting drug use. Transmission of hepatitis C in injecting drug users is mainly associated with the sharing of contaminated syringes/needles, although evidence for risk of hepatitis C infection through sharing of other injecting paraphernalia is increasing. In this paper, the independent effects of sharing paraphernalia other than syringes/needles have been estimated. The prevalence and force of infection were modelled using three serological data sets from drug users in three centres in Belgium as a function of the sharing behaviour. It was found that sharing of materials other than syringes/needles indeed seemed to contribute substantially to the spread of hepatitis C among injecting drug users. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]