Search

This article explores the challenges posed by extreme weather and climate-related events and the inadequacy of current resilience and adaptation frameworks. It discusses the "Exploring Unprecedented Extremes" workshop held in Montreal, Canada, which aimed to address the research gap in understanding and preparing for these events. The workshop emphasized the need for transformational changes in governance and the integration of diverse perspectives to effectively respond to climate extremes. It also highlighted the importance of effective communication and coproduction of knowledge in bridging the gap between scientific research and decision-making. The article provides examples of recent extreme events and emphasizes the urgency of addressing these challenges. It discusses the importance of understanding different ways of knowing and establishing trust in research collaborations, as well as exploring various modeling approaches used to study climate change and extreme weather events. The text concludes by emphasizing the need for a shift in perspective and the adoption of transdisciplinary approaches to effectively address climate extremes. The workshop served as a foundation for examining the impacts of climate change and identifying strategies for adaptation and transformation, and the text emphasizes the urgency of taking action and promoting understanding among individuals, communities, and organizations. [Extracted from the article]

The southern distribution of Micronycteris sanborni became controversial after the description of Micronycteris yatesi based on specimens formerly reported as M. sanborni in Bolivia. It raised doubts on the identity of the southernmost specimen of M. sanborni reported from Serra da Bodoquena, Brazil. We rechecked the identification of this specimen and report four new records of M. sanborni from Serra da Bodoquena. External and craniodental features of all five examined specimens fit the current M. sanborni diagnosis, supporting this region as the southern boundary of its geographic range in South America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In every Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment cycle, a multitude of scenarios are assessed, with different scope and emphasis throughout the various Working Group reports and special reports, as well as their respective chapters. Within the reports, the ambition is to integrate knowledge on possible climate futures across the Working Groups and scientific research domains based on a small set of "framing pathways" such as the so-called representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). This perspective, initiated by discussions at the IPCC Bangkok workshop in April 2023 on the "Use of Scenarios in AR6 and Subsequent Assessments", is intended to serve as one of the community contributions to highlight the needs for the next generation of framing pathways that is being advanced under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) umbrella, which will influence or even predicate the IPCC AR7 consideration of framing pathways. Here we suggest several policy research objectives that such a set of framing pathways should ideally fulfil, including mitigation needs for meeting the Paris Agreement objectives, the risks associated with carbon removal strategies, the consequences of delay in enacting that mitigation, guidance for adaptation needs, loss and damage, and for achieving mitigation in the wider context of societal development goals. Based on this context, we suggest that the next generation of climate scenarios for Earth system models should evolve towards representative emission pathways (REPs) and suggest key categories for such pathways. These framing pathways should address the most critical mitigation policy and adaptation plans that need to be implemented over the next 10 years. In our view, the most important categories are those relevant in the context of the Paris Agreement long-term goal, specifically an immediate action (low overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway and a delayed action (high overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway. Two other key categories are a pathway category approximately in line with current (as expressed by 2023) near- and long-term policy objectives, as well as a higher-emission category that is approximately in line with "current policies" (as expressed by 2023). We also argue for the scientific and policy relevance in exploring two "worlds that could have been". One of these categories has high-emission trajectories well above what is implied by current policies and the other has very-low-emission trajectories which assume that global mitigation action in line with limiting warming to 1.5 °C without overshoot had begun in 2015. Finally, we note that the timely provision of new scientific information on pathways is critical to inform the development and implementation of climate policy. Under the Paris Agreement, for the second global stocktake, which will occur in 2028, and to inform subsequent development of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) up to 2040, scientific inputs are required by 2027. These needs should be carefully considered in the development timeline of community modelling activities, including those under CMIP7. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last 70 years, extreme heat has been increasing at a disproportionate rate in Western Europe, compared to climate model simulations. This mismatch is not well understood. Here, we show that a substantial fraction (0.8 °C [0.2°−1.4 °C] of 3.4 °C per global warming degree) of the heat extremes trend is induced by atmospheric circulation changes, through more frequent southerly flows over Western Europe. In the 170 available simulations from 32 different models that we analyzed, including 3 large model ensembles, none have a circulation-induced heat trend as large as observed. This can be due to underestimated circulation response to external forcing, or to a systematic underestimation of low-frequency variability, or both. The former implies that future projections are too conservative, the latter that we are left with deep uncertainty regarding the pace of future summer heat in Europe. This calls for caution when interpreting climate projections of heat extremes over Western Europe, in view of adaptation to heat waves. Heat extremes in Western Europe have increased by an outstanding amount in the last 70 years. Climate models simulate weaker trends. This is largely due to atmospheric circulation trends, favouring heat, missed by climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of the bat skull has been extensively studied at broad spatial scales. While ecomorphological partitioning of niches has been extensively analyzed in macroevolutionary studies, little is known about the interaction of wild phenotypes with novel ecological pressures to determine species co-occurrence. Here, we tested the influence of size, trophic guild, and foraging behavior on the cranium and mandible shapes of 32 co-occurring bat species. We used 2D geometric morphometrics and phylogenetic comparative methods for multivariate data to test the effects of foraging behavior, trophic guild, and size on the shape of cranium and mandible. We also tested for phylogenetic signal on the shape and size of cranium and mandible. Our results show that closely-related species were clustered together in the morphospace. Cranium allometry followed a common trajectory, probably related to olfactory-visual senses, and not trophic guild and foraging behavior. However, mandible allometry followed a unique trajectory for each group, suggesting differential pressures related to trophic guild and foraging behavior. Coexistence among frugivore stenodermatines is apparently achieved because they partition ecological niches by varying cranium and mandible size rather than their shapes. These findings suggest a convergence in cranium and mandible shapes for insectivorous bats, which may be related to the hardness of food resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the number of models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) archives increase from generation to generation, there is a pressing need for guidance on how to interpret and best use the abundance of newly available climate information. Users of the latest CMIP6 seeking to draw conclusions about model agreement must contend with an "ensemble of opportunity" containing similar models that appear under different names. Those who used the previous CMIP5 as a basis for downstream applications must filter through hundreds of new CMIP6 simulations to find several best suited to their region, season, and climate horizon of interest. Here we present methods to address both issues, model dependence and model subselection, to help users previously anchored in CMIP5 to navigate CMIP6 and multi-model ensembles in general. In Part I, we refine a definition of model dependence based on climate output, initially employed in Climate model Weighting by Independence and Performance (ClimWIP), to designate discrete model families within CMIP5 and CMIP6. We show that the increased presence of model families in CMIP6 bolsters the upper mode of the ensemble's bimodal effective equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) distribution. Accounting for the mismatch in representation between model families and individual model runs shifts the CMIP6 ECS median and 75th percentile down by 0.43 ∘ C, achieving better alignment with CMIP5's ECS distribution. In Part II, we present a new approach to model subselection based on cost function minimization, Climate model Selection by Independence, Performance, and Spread (ClimSIPS). ClimSIPS selects sets of CMIP models based on the relative importance a user ascribes to model independence (as defined in Part I), model performance, and ensemble spread in projected climate outcome. We demonstrate ClimSIPS by selecting sets of three to five models from CMIP6 for European applications, evaluating the performance from the agreement with the observed mean climate and the spread in outcome from the projected mid-century change in surface air temperature and precipitation. To accommodate different use cases, we explore two ways to represent models with multiple members in ClimSIPS, first, by ensemble mean and, second, by an individual ensemble member that maximizes mid-century change diversity within the CMIP overall. Because different combinations of models are selected by the cost function for different balances of independence, performance, and spread priority, we present all selected subsets in ternary contour "subselection triangles" and guide users with recommendations based on further qualitative selection standards. ClimSIPS represents a novel framework to select models in an informed, efficient, and transparent manner and addresses the growing need for guidance and simple tools, so those seeking climate services can navigate the increasingly complex CMIP landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the importance of parks and vegetation remnants in supporting the fauna in urban areas, not much is known about the structure of interaction networks of plants and pollinators occurring in these habitats. Hummingbirds are the main vertebrate pollinators in the Americas, contributing to the reproductive success of several plant species. The objective of this study was to evaluate the interactions between hummingbirds and the flowers used as resources in green areas within the city of Campo Grande, Brazil. We recorded a total of 63 interactions between six hummingbirds and 24 plant species. Fabaceae and Bignoniaceae were the most representative families, with seven and five species visited, respectively. Most of the visited species (75%) are native and common in urban ornamentation. The network of interactions was modular (Q = 0.481), presented an intermediate value of specialization (H2' = 0.532) and a high core-periphery structure (CPness = 0.83). The plants Bauhinia variegata, Handroanthus heptaphyllus, Inga edulis, Prestonia tomentosa and Psiguria ternata, and the hummingbird Eupetomena macroura were the most central species in the network. In the dry period we recorded the greatest number of floral resources and the highest number of visits. The green areas within the municipality of Campo Grande offer resources that favor the permanence of hummingbirds in the city throughout the year, with native non-ornithophilous plants species characterized as important resources. The information presented here can be useful for understanding the structuring processes and the functioning of anthropically modified interactive communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human land use causes habitat loss and fragmentation, influencing host-parasite associations through changes in infestation rates, host mortality and possibly local extinction. Bat-ectoparasite interactions are an important host-parasite model possibly affected by such changes, as this system acts as both reservoirs and vectors of several pathogens that can infect different wild and domestic species. This study aimed to assess how the prevalence and abundance of bat ectoparasites respond to forest loss, fragmentation, and edge length. Bats and ectoparasites were sampled at twenty sites, forming a gradient of forest cover, in southwestern Brazil during two wet (2015 and 2016) and two dry (2016 and 2017) seasons. Effects of landscape metrics on host abundance as well as parasite prevalence and abundance were assessed through structural equation models. Nine host-parasite associations provided sufficient data for analyses, including one tick and eight flies on four bat species. Forest cover positively influenced the prevalence or abundance of three fly species, but negatively influenced one fly and the tick species. Prevalence or abundance responded positively to edge length for three fly species, and negatively for the tick. In turn, number of fragments influenced the prevalence or abundance of four fly species, two positively and two negatively. Our results support species-specific responses of ectoparasites to landscape features, and a tendency of host-generalist ticks to benefit from deforestation while most host-specialist flies are disadvantaged. Differences in host traits and abundance, along with parasite life cycles and environmental conditions, are possible explanations to our findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The southern African climate is strongly impacted by climate change. Precipitation is a key variable in this region, as it is linked to agriculture and water supply. Simulations with a regional atmospheric model over the past decades and the 21st century display a decrease in the past precipitation over some coastal areas of South Africa and an increase over the rest of southern Africa. However, precipitation is projected to decrease over the whole southern part of the domain in the future. This study shows that the Agulhas Current system, including the current and the leakage, which surrounds the continent in the east and south, impacts this precipitation trend. A reduction in the strength of the Agulhas Current is linked to a reduction in precipitation along the southeast coast. The Agulhas leakage, the part of the Agulhas Current that leaves the system and flows into the South Atlantic, impacts winter precipitation in the southwest of the continent. A more intense Agulhas leakage is linked to a reduction in precipitation in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detection and attribution (D&A) of forced precipitation change are challenging due to internal variability, limited spatial, and temporal coverage of observational records and model uncertainty. These factors result in a low signal-to-noise ratio of potential regional and even global trends. Here, we use a statistical method – ridge regression – to create physically interpretable fingerprints for the detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation with a high signal-to-noise ratio. The fingerprints are constructed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model output masked to match coverage of three gridded precipitation observational datasets – GHCNDEX, HadEX3, and GPCC – and are then applied to these observational datasets to assess the degree of forced change detectable in the real-world climate in the period 1951–2020. We show that the signature of forced change is detected in all three observational datasets for global metrics of mean and extreme precipitation. Forced changes are still detectable from changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation even if the global mean trend is removed from the data. This shows the detection of forced change in mean and extreme precipitation beyond a global mean trend is robust and increases confidence in the detection method's power as well as in climate models' ability to capture the relevant processes that contribute to large-scale patterns of change. We also find, however, that detectability depends on the observational dataset used. Not only coverage differences but also observational uncertainty contribute to dataset disagreement, exemplified by the times of emergence of forced change from internal variability ranging from 1998 to 2004 among datasets. Furthermore, different choices for the period over which the forced trend is computed result in different levels of agreement between observations and model projections. These sensitivities may explain apparent contradictions in recent studies on whether models under- or overestimate the observed forced increase in mean and extreme precipitation. Lastly, the detection fingerprints are found to rely primarily on the signal in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, which is at least partly due to observational coverage but potentially also due to the presence of a more robust signal in the Northern Hemisphere in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine social-ecological systems (SES) have been providing important cultural, social, and economic services for many centuries. They are, however, increasingly threatened by fast changing environmental, ecological, and socio-economic conditions. As historical marine research is increasingly developing into a multidisciplinary endeavour, it offers outstanding points of departure to analyse historic events and the response and adaptation of the respective SES. Such knowledge helps to inform today's fisheries management and promotes successful management of changing ecosystems. Here, we compile and analyse historical data (1890–1950) of the German Western Baltic Sea fishery SES. This period is characterised by a series of strong impacts due to political, technological, economic, and ecological changes, such as two world wars, a global economic crisis, and other economic or ecological disasters. In our opinion, potential negative effects of those events were in the past attenuated by the system's high capacity to adapt. However, most of the fishers´ historic options on how to respond and adapt have recently become no longer available. New threats (e.g. climate change) have emerged instead. We conclude that today's fisheries management needs to integrate options of adaptation by exhausting all present or future opportunities. Adaptive fisheries management should not only focus on environmental change but need to include socio-economic change as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many eukaryotic organisms reproduce by sexual and asexual reproduction. Genetic diversity in populations can be strongly dependent on the relative importance of these two reproductive modes. Here, we compare the amounts and patterns of genetic diversity in related water hyacinths that differ in their propensity for clonal propagation -highly clonal Eichhornia crassipes and moderately clonal E. azurea (Pontederiaceae). Our comparisons involved genotype-by-sequencing (GBS) of 137 E. crassipes ramets from 60 locations (193,495 nucleotide sites) and 118 E. azurea ramets from 53 locations (198,343 nucleotide sites) among six hydrological basins in central South America, the native range of both species. We predicted that because of more prolific clonal propagation, E. crassipes would exhibit lower clonal diversity than E. azurea. This prediction was supported by all measures of clonal diversity that we examined. Eichhornia crassipes also had a larger excess of heterozygotes at variant sites, another signature of clonality. However, genome-wide heterozygosity was not significantly different between the species. Eichhornia crassipes had weaker spatial genetic structure and lower levels of differentiation among hydrological basins than E. azurea, probably because of higher clonality and more extensive dispersal of its free-floating life form. Our findings for E. crassipes contrast with earlier studies from the invasive range which have reported very low levels of clonal diversity and extensive geographic areas of genetic uniformity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Amazon forest has the highest biodiversity on Earth. However, information on Amazonian vertebrate diversity is still deficient and scattered across the published, peer‐reviewed, and gray literature and in unpublished raw data. Camera traps are an effective non‐invasive method of surveying vertebrates, applicable to different scales of time and space. In this study, we organized and standardized camera trap records from different Amazon regions to compile the most extensive data set of inventories of mammal, bird, and reptile species ever assembled for the area. The complete data set comprises 154,123 records of 317 species (185 birds, 119 mammals, and 13 reptiles) gathered from surveys from the Amazonian portion of eight countries (Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Peru, Suriname, and Venezuela). The most frequently recorded species per taxa were: mammals: Cuniculus paca (11,907 records); birds: Pauxi tuberosa (3713 records); and reptiles: Tupinambis teguixin (716 records). The information detailed in this data paper opens up opportunities for new ecological studies at different spatial and temporal scales, allowing for a more accurate evaluation of the effects of habitat loss, fragmentation, climate change, and other human‐mediated defaunation processes in one of the most important and threatened tropical environments in the world. The data set is not copyright restricted; please cite this data paper when using its data in publications and we also request that researchers and educators inform us of how they are using these data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Keywords: Climate services; COVID-19; Disease; Health; Societal impacts; Vulnerability EN Climate services COVID-19 Disease Health Societal impacts Vulnerability E704 E709 6 04/11/22 20220301 NES 220301 Roundtable on Compound Hazards and COVID-19 I B What: b i An online panel with leading experts in compound hazard research, preparedness, and response, attended by over 80 online participants, met to discuss hazard response in the context of COVID-19. For example, forest fires are social and environmental hazards that present multiple risks to health and well-being, and they can also force people to migrate from rural to urban centers and vice versa during a COVID-19 outbreak, potentially increasing the spread of COVID-19 ([1]). The WMO Task Team on COVID-19 Meteorological and Air Quality Factors convened the "Roundtable on Compound Hazards and COVID-19" to hear from global experts on hazard response in the context of COVID-19. [Extracted from the article]

Copyright of Der Pathologe is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Key Point: Appreciation of peer reviewers for 2020 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this remembrance, we have brought together some of Victor Rico‐Gray's friends and collaborators to recall his many contributions to tropical ecology and his influence on so many young scientists. Victor's research ranged from Mexican ethnobotany to the evolutionary ecology of complex interactions between ants and plants. His research was highly collaborative, forming strong bonds among those who shared his interests in how the web of life is organized. He inspired students through his mentoring in tropical ecology, mainly his lectures at the Instituto de Ecología AC (INECOL), and later at the Universidad Veracruzana (UV), his courses organized by the Organization for Tropical Studies (OTS), and his talks at meetings, including the Association of Tropical Biology and Conservation (ATBC). Victor's story is not over. It will continue to be traced through countless scientists who were inspired by Victor's life and work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Corpus: Archivos Virtuales de la Alteridad Americana is the property of CORPUS. ARCHIVOS VIRTUALES DE LA ALTERIDAD AMERICANA and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Functional traits can determine pairwise species interactions, such as those between plants and pollinators. However, the effects of biogeography and evolutionary history on trait‐matching and trait‐mediated resource specialization remain poorly understood.We compiled a database of 93 mutualistic hummingbird–plant networks (including 181 hummingbird and 1,256 plant species), complemented by morphological measures of hummingbird bill and floral corolla length. We divided the hummingbirds into their principal clades and used knowledge on hummingbird biogeography to divide the networks into four biogeographical regions: Lowland South America, Andes, North & Central America, and the Caribbean islands. We then tested: (a) whether hummingbird clades and biogeographical regions differ in hummingbird bill length, corolla length of visited flowers and resource specialization, and (b) whether hummingbirds' bill length correlates with the corolla length of their food plants and with their level of resource specialization.Hummingbird clades dominated by long‐billed species generally visited longer flowers and were the most exclusive in their resource use. Bill and corolla length and the degree of resource specialization were similar across mainland regions, but the Caribbean islands had shorter flowers and hummingbirds with more generalized interaction niches. Bill and corolla length correlated in all regions and most clades, that is, trait‐matching was a recurrent phenomenon in hummingbird–plant associations. In contrast, bill length did not generally mediate resource specialization, as bill length was only weakly correlated with resource specialization within one hummingbird clade (Brilliants) and in the regions of Lowland South America and the Andes in which plants and hummingbirds have a long co‐evolutionary history. Supplementary analyses including bill curvature confirmed that bill morphology (length and curvature) does not in general predict resource specialization.These results demonstrate how biogeographical and evolutionary histories can modulate the effects of functional traits on species interactions, and that traits better predict functional groups of interaction partners (i.e. trait‐matching) than resource specialization. These findings reveal that functional traits have great potential, but also key limitations, as a tool for developing more mechanistic approaches in community ecology. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The future climate projections in the IPCC reports are visually communicated via maps showing the mean response of climate models to alternative scenarios of socio‐economic development. The presence of large changes is highlighted by stippling the maps where the mean climate response (the signal) is large compared to internal variability (the noise) and the response is robust, that is, consistent in sign, across the individual models. In addition, hatching is used to mark the regions with a small multi‐model mean change. This approach may fail to recognize the risk of large changes in regions where the uncertainty is large and the response is not robust. Here, we present a more informative diagnostic to support risk assessment that is obtained by quantifying the mean forced signal‐to‐noise ratio of the individual model responses, rather than the signal‐to‐noise ratio of the mean response. This enables us to identify regions where a large future change compared to year‐to‐year variability is plausible, regardless of whether the signal is robust across the ensemble. For mean precipitation changes, we find that the majority (58% in surface area) of the unmarked regions and a sizeable portion (19%) of the hatched regions from the AR5 projections hid climate change responses to the RCP8.5 scenario that are on average large compared to the year‐to‐year variability. Based on the newer CMIP6 ensemble, a considerable potential for large annual‐mean precipitation changes, despite the lack of a robust multi‐model projection, exists over 22% of the surface land area, particularly in Central America, northern South America (including the Amazon), Central and West Africa (including parts of the Sahel), and the Maritime Continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report on phyllostomid assemblages just after a wildfire and again three months later across burned and unburned forest patches. We recorded 10 species throughout the fire disturbance gradient, mainly determined by changes in the understory. Burned patches presented high abundance of predator bats right after fire, including gleaning insectivorous, carnivorous, and sanguivorous. Three months later, burned forests were empty of predators and dominated by large frugivores that occurred throughout the whole gradient in both periods. The fire appears to create ephemeral opportunity to predator phyllostomids right after its passage, but subsequent vegetation recovery seems to reduce diversity in burned forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent theories suggest that processes shaping species diversity are the same shaping genetic diversity, leading to a correlation between the two levels of diversity. Using Neotropical bat assemblages, and considering the genetic diversity of two co-distributed Chiroptera species with distinct life-history traits, Artibeus planirostris and Carollia perspicillata, we evaluated the correlation between metrics of taxonomic (species richness, evenness, and community divergence) and genetic diversity (number of haplotypes, haplotype diversity, allelic richness, expected heterozygosity and genetic divergence) in these two species. Landscape variables potentially affecting those correlations (distance to the nearest conservation unit, forest area, forest border length and number of forest fragments) were also analysed. For A. planirostris, we found a negative correlation between evenness and expected heterozygosity and also between mean presence-absence assemblage divergence and mean genetic divergence based on microsatellites. Our results indicate that the genetic diversity in A. planirostris is not explained by the landscape variables considered. For C. perspicillata, we found a positive correlation between species richness and haplotype richness and between evenness and expected heterozygosity. Genetic differentiation based on microsatellites in C. perspicillata was positively related to geographic distance and landscape differentiation. Allelic richness and expected heterozygosity in C. perspicillata were negatively related to distance from the conservation unit and forest area, but significance changed according to the spatial scale. We conclude that species-genetic diversity correlations may vary according to the species under study. Thus, A. planirostris appears to be ecologically different to other species in assemblages, while C. perspicillata seems to be ecologically similar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mammalian carnivores are considered a key group in maintaining ecological health and can indicate potential ecological integrity in landscapes where they occur. Carnivores also hold high conservation value and their habitat requirements can guide management and conservation plans. The order Carnivora has 84 species from 8 families in the Neotropical region: Canidae; Felidae; Mephitidae; Mustelidae; Otariidae; Phocidae; Procyonidae; and Ursidae. Herein, we include published and unpublished data on native terrestrial Neotropical carnivores (Canidae; Felidae; Mephitidae; Mustelidae; Procyonidae; and Ursidae). NEOTROPICAL CARNIVORES is a publicly available data set that includes 99,605 data entries from 35,511 unique georeferenced coordinates. Detection/non‐detection and quantitative data were obtained from 1818 to 2018 by researchers, governmental agencies, non‐governmental organizations, and private consultants. Data were collected using several methods including camera trapping, museum collections, roadkill, line transect, and opportunistic records. Literature (peer‐reviewed and grey literature) from Portuguese, Spanish and English were incorporated in this compilation. Most of the data set consists of detection data entries (n = 79,343; 79.7%) but also includes non‐detection data (n = 20,262; 20.3%). Of those, 43.3% also include count data (n = 43,151). The information available in NEOTROPICAL CARNIVORES will contribute to macroecological, ecological, and conservation questions in multiple spatio‐temporal perspectives. As carnivores play key roles in trophic interactions, a better understanding of their distribution and habitat requirements are essential to establish conservation management plans and safeguard the future ecological health of Neotropical ecosystems. Our data paper, combined with other large‐scale data sets, has great potential to clarify species distribution and related ecological processes within the Neotropics. There are no copyright restrictions and no restriction for using data from this data paper, as long as the data paper is cited as the source of the information used. We also request that users inform us of how they intend to use the data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate the effects of temperature on human capital production in India. We show that high temperatures reduce math and reading test scores among school-age children. Agricultural income is one mechanism driving this relationship—hot days during the growing season reduce agricultural yields and test scores with comparatively modest effects of hot days in the nongrowing season. The roll-out of a workfare program, by providing a safety net for the poor, substantially weakens the link between temperature and test scores. Our results imply that absent social protection programs, higher temperatures will have large negative impacts on human capital production of poor populations in agrarian economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports on work by climate researchers Erich Fischer and Reto Knutti using climate simulations to link extreme weather events to global warming and predict such events during the twenty-first century, noting information at http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2617.

We examine the response of globally averaged precipitation to global warming—the hydrologic sensitivity (HS)—in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi‐model ensemble. Multi‐model mean HS is 2.5% K−1 (ranging from 2.1–3.1% K−1 across models), a modest decrease compared to CMIP5 (where it was 2.6% K−1). This new set of simulations is used as an out‐of‐sample test for observational constraints on HS proposed based on CMIP5. The constraint based on clear‐sky shortwave absorption sensitivity to water vapor has weakened, and it is argued that a proposed constraint based on surface low cloud longwave radiative effects does not apply to HS. Finally, while a previously proposed mechanism connecting HS and climate sensitivity via low clouds is present in the CMIP6 ensemble, it is not an important factor for variations in HS. This explains why HS is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles. Plain Language Summary: The most recent generation of climate models has a higher climate sensitivity than earlier generations. A previous study argued that climate sensitivity should be related to changes in globally averaged precipitation (which is mostly made up of rainfall), so we revisit it in the new set of models. We find that compared to the previous generation of simulations, the multi‐model average rate of change of rainfall has decreased slightly, but that this change is small compared to the change in climate sensitivity and also compared to a previously proposed estimate of the rate of rainfall change that was intended to make it more consistent with currently observable aspects of climate. Finally, we look at the relationship across models between climate sensitivity and rainfall change. Like in the previous generation of models, low clouds change in a way that could influence both climate sensitivity and rainfall change, and yet climate sensitivity and rainfall change do not vary together. We show that this is because the effects of low clouds are present, but they are not the most important factor for rainfall change. Key Points: The hydrologic sensitivity (HS) in CMIP6 is 2.5% K−1 in the multi‐model mean, with a range across models of 2.1–3.1% K−1Observationally constraining HS with the clear‐sky SW sensitivity to water vapor, as previously proposed, decreases this to 2.4% K−1The lack of relationship between surface LW cloud effects and HS is a gap in the chain linking HS and climate sensitivity via low clouds [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On behalf of the journal, AGU, and the scientific community, the editors would like to sincerely thank those who reviewed the manuscripts for Geophysical Research Letters in 2019. The hours reading and commenting on manuscripts not only improve the manuscripts but also increase the scientific rigor of future research in the field. We particularly appreciate the timely reviews in light of the demands imposed by the rapid review process at Geophysical Research Letters. With the revival of the "major revisions" decisions, we appreciate the reviewers' efforts on multiple versions of some manuscripts. With the advent of AGU's data policy, many reviewers have helped immensely to evaluate the accessibility and availability of data associated with the papers they have reviewed, and many have provided insightful comments that helped to improve the data presentation and quality. We greatly appreciate the assistance of the reviewers in advancing open science, which is a key objective of AGU's data policy. Many of those listed below went beyond and reviewed three or more manuscripts for our journal, and those are indicated in italics. Key Point: The editors thank the 2019 peer reviewers [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Der Pathologe is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Although critical in understanding human societies relying on natural game stocks, little attention has been paid to how socioeconomic traits can influence hunter behaviour. Our research focuses on whether village size, household size and age, and hunter age and monetary income affect hunting efficiency (catch-per-unit-effort) and catchment areas of traditional Amazonians. In collaboration with 13 volunteer hunters from six villages, we assessed social traits, and identified hunting areas with GPS and animal kills over six months. Contrary to expectations from central-place foraging, hunters in larger villages used smaller catchment areas, potentially because cassava-associated game species are more common near larger villages. Older hunters were more efficient, emphasizing the role of experience gained through time. Catchment areas increased with hunters' income, but apparently the hunting efficiency did not. Overall results support the notion that a spatial arrangement of fewer large villages, rather than many small ones, maximizes hunting efficiency and minimizes catchment areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ostrowska examines homosexual barter relations in the Auschwitz-Birkenau-Monowitz camp complex. In Polish collective memory, a pipel - an inmate functionary's helper - designates a male victim of rape by homosexual prisoners. For years, homosexual relations between all categories of concentration camp inmates have been falsely attributed to men convicted of homosexual acts. After the war, men sentenced under section 175 continued to be criminalised; often they were also viewed as collaborators rather than victims. Victims of sexual violence, meanwhile, often remained anonymous. Ostrowska sheds light on the functioning of post-war phantasms about sexual violence against men. She uses the few surviving testimonies by victims, co-prisoners' accounts as well as literary sources that are still unavailable in Polish (Yehiel De-Nur). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Determine the relative influence of geographical distance, environmental differences, and host species composition on the similarity of bat fly species composition. Location: Neotropics. Taxon: Bats (Chiroptera: Phyllostomidae) and bat flies (Diptera: Streblidae). Methods: Abundance data on bats and ectoparasites were obtained from published studies. The relative influences of environmental variation (annual precipitation, temperature seasonality, elevation, and NDVI), host species composition, and geographic distance on parasite community composition were analysed with Generalized Dissimilarity Modelling and variance partitioning. Additionally, we evaluated the influence of these environmental variables and geographic distance on host species composition. Results: Our model explains 45.3% of the variance in the dissimilarity of bat fly species. Host species composition had the most significant influence on bat fly species composition across communities, followed by environmental effects. Variance partitioning showed that host species composition explained 14.9% and environmental characteristics explained 10.3% of the variance in bat fly species dissimilarity. Geographical distance alone had a negligible effect as it accounted for only 0.007% of the variance in bat fly species composition. Host species composition was mainly influenced by geographic distance (18.0%) and secondarily by environmental variables (9.8%). The most important environmental variables influencing parasite and host species composition were annual precipitation and temperature seasonality, respectively. Main Conclusions: The lack of relationship between geographical distance and bat fly species composition may reflect either the high mobility or the high dispersal capacity of bat flies, or a combination of these. Alternatively, it could reflect a taxonomic artefact. Environmental differences seem to directly affect bat flies, as opposed to affecting them indirectly through their impact on the hosts. Our results support the fundamental role that host species composition plays in determining the species composition of highly host‐specific parasites. However, we argue that host specificity is not the only trait impacting ectoparasite species composition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]