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This paper develops a business cycle model of a small open economy with heterogeneous agents and international labor mobility, with a particular focus on taxes and transfer policies. Migration occurs as a result of the maximization problem of families and, combined with remittances, makes consumption smoothing possible. This paper shows how transfers from the government to young people and elders, funded with distortionary taxes, prompt the migration of people of working age and, among them, some of the most skilled members of the economy. The model is calibrated to match labor mobility in various age–skill groups and aggregate cycle dynamics of the Uruguayan economy, including government transfers and migration volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article uses several econometric models to evaluate the determinants of the outcomes of the World Cup Qualifying matches played in South America. It documents the relative importance of home-field advantage and other factors. Contrary to popular belief, altitude appears not to be an important factor behind the outcome or score of a match. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes whether or not the econometric methods usually applied to test for absolute convergence have provided this hypothesis a "fair" chance. I show that traditional (absolute and conditional) convergence tests are not consistent with even the simplest model that displays convergence. Furthermore, claims of divergence on the grounds of bimodalities in the distribution of GDP per capita can be made consistent with models in which neither divergence nor twin peaks are present in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the creation of the Chilean pension fund industry in 1981, pension fund administrators have not been free to choose their investment portfolios because of stringent regulation of investment limits. The diagnosis implicit with the imposition of limits was that the Chilean capital market was not deep, that there was an important demand for funds to finance the expansion of the productive sector and that, due to principal-agent problems, protection for uninformed account holders was needed. As this regulation entails an inefficient combination of risk and return, this paper quantifies its costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the asymptotic and finite sample properties of the efficient method of moments and indirect inference, when applied to estimating stationary ARMA models. Issues such as identification, model selection, and testing are also discussed. The properties of these estimators are compared to those of maximum likelihood using Monte Carlo experiments for both invertible and noninvertible ARMA models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a statistical comparison between the actual and predicted evolution of the Chilean gross domestic product (GDP) for the period 1986-1998 made by several forecasters. The Chilean economy presents one of the highest average growth rates in the Western Hemisphere. In fact, the average annual growth rate of the GDP between 1986 and 1997 was approximately 7.7 percent. Accompanying this spectacular performance there has been a proliferation of projections of the growth of the economy by different sources. This work has been evaluated by these projections and comparing them with the actual evolution of the rate of growth of the GDP for the period 1986 to 1997. It presents a comparison between the effective evolution of the growth rate of the GDP and the projections made by the forecasters and third section presents some final comments. It analyses the statistical properties of the forecast errors made by several forecasters during the period 1986 to 1997.

This paper uses different approaches to determine the contribution of internal policies and external factors on the good performance of the Bolivian economy in the recent past. It is demonstrated that the extremely favorable external conditions are mainly responsible for its bonanza, and that the domestic policies have, probably, caused more harm, than good. The extent of the harm ranges from 2% to up to 6.1% of GDP per capita. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]