Empirical Analysis of Systematic Errors in Chilean GDP Forecasts.

The article presents a statistical comparison between the actual and predicted evolution of the Chilean gross domestic product (GDP) for the period 1986-1998 made by several forecasters. The Chilean economy presents one of the highest average growth rates in the Western Hemisphere. In fact, the average annual growth rate of the GDP between 1986 and 1997 was approximately 7.7 percent. Accompanying this spectacular performance there has been a proliferation of projections of the growth of the economy by different sources. This work has been evaluated by these projections and comparing them with the actual evolution of the rate of growth of the GDP for the period 1986 to 1997. It presents a comparison between the effective evolution of the growth rate of the GDP and the projections made by the forecasters and third section presents some final comments. It analyses the statistical properties of the forecast errors made by several forecasters during the period 1986 to 1997.