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Since the early 1980s, there have been a number of principally empirical studies of the impact of government budget deficits on interest rates that have typically tested the hypothesis that larger deficits raise interest rates. However, in more recent years, this topic has received far less attention. Accordingly, this study seeks to "update" the findings of such studies and to do so for the dominant North American economies of Canada and the U.S. Furthermore, in the pursuit of further insights into interest rates, the present study also investigates an effectively heretofore overlooked variable that arguably also might influence interest rates, namely, economic freedom. Finally, given the increased upward trend of government debt (relative to GDP) in recent years in Canada and the U.S., this study investigates the interest rate impact of rising national debt-to-GDP ratios. For the 1995–2024 period (and also in one estimate for the 1985–2001 period), this exploratory study finds compelling evidence (1) that the real interest rate yield on 10-year Treasuries in Canada and the real interest rate yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes are increasing functions of the central government budget deficits in both Canada and the U.S., respectively, and (2) the real interest rate yields on 10-year Treasuries in Canada and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes are both decreasing functions of economic freedom in Canada and the U.S., respectively. On the other hand, regarding the impact of a higher national debt-to-GDP ratio on the real ten-year Treasury yield, there is only very mixed support for an impact, with support for its impact coming from the Canadian estimates but no support whatsoever coming from the U.S. estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The twin deficit hypothesis suggests that budget deficits are crucial factors leading to current account deficits, and substantial empirical evidence documents a significant positive statistical correlation between budget and current account deficits. However, such evidence generally suffers from endogeneity problems due to reverse causality, thereby making it difficult to provide solid evidence to support policy implementation. We use extensive cross-national panel data from developed and developing countries and military expenditure as an instrumental variable to reexamine the impact of budget deficits on the current account and test the validity of the twin deficit hypothesis. Our results demonstrate that budget deficits lead to current account deficits in both developed and developing countries, supporting the twin deficit hypothesis. After considering various factors that may affect the exogeneity of military expenditures, approximating the instrumental variable as exogenous, and performing multiple robustness tests, the hypothesis still holds. This study provides solid evidence supporting the use of fiscal policies to deal with current account imbalances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historically, the main behavior of fiscal policy is to distribute resources, income, and expenditures, which are interconnected functions of economic stability. Recently, the scope of public sector economics has expanded beyond budgetary components in parallel with the development of public finance. While the budget reached the economic division form of budget items based on program and performance theories, Budget monitoring, and financial risk management are currently challenging, particularly in the face of monetary policy uncertainty. Financial institutions are crucially concerned with the stability of public finance in low-income countries (LICs) as it contributes to improved investor confidence and fiscal decision-making. Hence, economists investigated uncertainty shocks and contributed to managing financial risks with global and energy uncertainty indices. Furthermore, the maturity of digital transformation and artificial intelligence financial applications catalyzed scholars to examine its contributions in the fiscal distress prediction field. Hence, this research aims to integrate artificial intelligence into financial performance analysis to bridge the gap in budget forecasting. The study was aimed at proposing an Economics Division Uncertainty approach (EDUA), which combined (ARIMA) and (LSTM) models for time series analysis of Nuclear Material Authority expenditures over the previous five years divided into quarterly periods, to achieve efficiency in spending. The (ARIMA) model's (ADF) results showed that uncertainty indicators are highly significant. The best (p-value) in the first and second differences in (ARIMA) models is (0.0001) for petroleum items, (0.0001) for solar price rates, (0.001) for the US exchange rate, and (0.003) for electricity price rates, when compared to (EDU_LSTM). Both models have similar accuracy rates, with the best being (EDU_ARIMA) (solar price 97%, USD exchange rate 84%). The second study proposed a composite model of four machine-learning tools to enhance financial performance during financial distress. The study collected (12) indicators from general financial literature and corporate studies, utilizing the (XGBOOST, Random Forest, KNN, and Naïve Bayes) models. Comparing the accuracy results for each model presented different accuracy results in the deep learning models over five years of data. The best accuracy score was for Random Forest at (69%), XGBOOT at (68%), and KNN at (68%). We recommended explainable AI as future research to interpret the budget deficit during the fiscal year period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous papers investigating the structural determinants of budget deficits in panels of developing and/or developed countries either found that there exists a negative relation between financial development and fiscal balance or that the first is not a significant determinant of the later. This paper asks whether financial development is relevant to explain budget deficits within a country specific context. We use data from Cameroon between 1990 and 2021 and the ARDL bound cointegration technique. Our results show positive significant coefficients in the short-run, statistically not significant coefficients in the long-run and an ECT of - 1.48. In Cameroon, financial liberalization and financial development may lead to fiscal discipline so as to reduce budget deficits progressively. We then recommend enhancing financial development in order to improve the country's fiscal balance management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Copyright of Journal of Social Sciences Research / Sosyal Bilimler Arastirmalari Dergisi is the property of ODU Journal of Social Sciences Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study examines the economic consequences of political instability in Pakistan, focusing on its effects on fiscal policy and investor confidence. Pakistan’s history of political turbulence has repeatedly disrupted economic growth, leading to fiscal imbalances, public debt, and diminished investor confidence. Political events often result in short-term fiscal decisions that have long-lasting negative impacts on the economy. The research employs a qualitative approach, analysing secondary data from government reports, economic surveys, and investor sentiment studies to assess the relationship between political instability, fiscal policy, and investment trends. The study finds that political instability contributes to rising budget deficits, inflation, and exchange rate volatility, while also undermining both domestic and foreign investor confidence. Frequent policy reversals and uncertainty further exacerbate economic challenges. To mitigate these effects, the study suggests adopting resilient fiscal frameworks, enhancing transparency in economic governance, and leveraging support from international institutions like the IMF and World Bank during times of political instability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper analyses the direct relationship between budget deficits and economic growth, the channels through which budget deficits inhibit growth and finally, the Granger causality between budget deficit and economic growth in South Africa over the period 1975 to 2020. Design/methodology/approach: In a bid to control for endogeneity that is common in economic growth regressions, the author employed the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) approach. Findings: Towards analysing the direct relationship between budget deficit and economic growth, results show that a 10-percentage rise in the budget deficit slows economic growth by 0.2 percentage points. Results show that the growth inhibiting consequences of the budget deficit in South Africa are principally driven by negatively affecting private and public physical capital accumulation growth, as well as a drop in gross national savings. However, results show no evidence of a deficit reduction effect through long term-real interest rate. The findings reveal a one-way Granger causality running from budget deficits to economic growth. Practical implications: Based on the findings in this article, expanding the fiscal deficit to support growth is not a viable policy option for the South African economy. Originality/value: The originality of this paper lies in establishing the Granger causality between budget deficit and economic growth, thus adding to the scant literature, as well as establishing the channels through which budget deficit retards economic growth for the South African economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study analyzed the determinants of the current account balance in Nigeria between 1981 and 2020, using three different models: oil current account balance, non-oil current account balance, and total current account balance. The dependent variables were the respective current account balances, while the explanatory variables included income, consumption, investment, budget deficit, exchange rate, financial deepening, broad money supply, unemployment rate, inflation rate, and age dependency ratio. The data was analyzed using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique. The results indicated that budget deficit, exchange rate, and financial deepening were statistically significant in determining the oil current account position in the short run, while income, budget deficit, and exchange rate were statistically significant in the long run. For non-oil current account position, budget deficit, money supply, unemployment rate, inflation rate, and age dependency ratio were significant determinants in the short run, while budget deficit, money supply, unemployment rate, and inflation rate were significant in the long run. In the case of the total current account position, budget deficit, financial deepening, unemployment rate, and age dependency ratio were significant in the short run, while budget deficit, unemployment rate, and age dependency ratio were significant in the long run. The study suggests that policymakers in Nigeria should focus on reducing budget deficits, promoting financial deepening, and maintaining stable exchange rates to improve the current account balance, particularly in the short run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We revisit the twin deficits hypothesis (budget and trade deficits) for the United States during 1791–2019, using the system-equation ADL test for threshold cointegration proposed by Li (2017). This model can demonstrate the existence of both asymmetric adjustment and asymmetric role in the relationship between trade and budget deficits. Our empirical evidence suggests a nonlinear long-run relationship between the two variables, thus finding the presence of the twin deficits hypothesis. Further, we find time–varying cointegration between the two, and an asymmetric adjustment process. Budget deficits play a vital adjustment role at low regimes (when error-correction terms are below the threshold of 1.11), and trade deficits play an important adjustment role at higher regimes (when error-correction terms are above the threshold of 1.11). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to reveal the relationship between budget deficits and inflation in African countries in the period of 2001 to 2020. The study utilizes Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Disturbed Lag (PMG, ARDL) model. It is found that budget deficits have a long-run positive and statistically significant influence on the inflation rate, which emphasizes its role in deciding the price level. Similar findings are revealed for the relationship between budget deficit and labor force in the long run. Meanwhile, broad money growth findings showed both short-run and long-run impacts on the inflation rate. The empirical findings support the existence of Fiscal Theory of Price Level (FTPL) hypothesis in African context. This study offers a novel theory on the relationship between budget deficits and inflation in Africa which is characterized by a persistent inflation rate. The result supports that fiscal and monetary policy are interdependent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing literature suggests that fiscal space matters for the policy response to financial crises. High public debt levels limit countries capacity to pursue macroeconomic and financial stabilization policies and resume growth after severe crisis downturns. We examine the involved channels through which fiscal space matters for the dynamics of fiscal policy after a financial distress, namely sovereign market access and policymakers' views, in a panel of 30 OECD countries for the period 1980–2017. We introduce a non-linear measure of fiscal space, which further considers simultaneously both the debt-to-GDP ratio capturing long-term features of countries' policy-making processes and budgetary balances that capture recent policy decisions and persistent fiscal deficits. We document a substantially strengthened role for sovereign market access constraints in driving the policy response to distress once fiscal space non-linearity is introduced in the model, which highlights the non-linearity involved in market participants' concerns about fiscal space. Moreover, the vulnerability of market access concerning fiscal space is affected by either the debt-to-GDP ratio or fiscal balances dominating the assessment of fiscal space. The role of fiscal health and the policymakers' views channel is more pronounced once flows of budget deficits are at the epicenter of the assessment of fiscal space, suggesting a "deficit concerns" channel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A simple two‐country model with trade, fiscal and interest rate externalities is used to study strategic interactions between national policymakers. Optimal fiscal policy internalizes a trade‐off between output stability and fiscal stability. With lump‐sum taxation, the noncooperative equilibrium is inefficient and both countries are better off under coordination. These results also hold if taxation is distortionary and trade generates a fiscal externality as well, regardless of how strong the preference for output stability is. In response to a negative global demand shock, consistent with the disruptions that occurred during the recent pandemic, the optimal policy response is to increase spending by more under cooperation. However, if budget deficits generate a sufficiently strong negative cross‐border externality through higher interest rates, the optimal response calls for lower spending under cooperation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates fiscal sustainability in Indonesia and draws comparisons with Malaysia and Thailand. The analysis encompasses an evaluation of fiscal rules, fiscal performance, and an assessment of fiscal sustainability across these three countries. Given that the Coronavirus Disease (COVID‐19) pandemic affected budget deficits in each country starting in 2020, the empirical assessment utilizes data from 2010 to 2019. Despite persistent fiscal deficits in each country, the results suggest that all three countries maintain fiscal sustainability. A more detailed analysis of the Indonesian case focuses on government revenue and expenditure. The discussion addresses challenges in these areas, aiming to identify feasible policy options for enhancing fiscal sustainability in Indonesia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing country inflation is in the headlines again. Mainstream macroeconomics typically ignores the role of conflict while non‐mainstream work tends to ignore macroeconomic constraints. This paper revisits the issue employing a dependent economy framework with eclectic characteristics. Specifically, I explore the mechanisms that propagate both real and monetary sources of inflation in the presence of real wage resistance and distributional conflict. The analysis shows that the inability to pay for subsidies with taxes or bond issuance in a stylized developing economy could create a situation where a relatively small shock leads to sustained and accelerating inflation and a wage‐price spiral, thanks to conflicting claims on income. Subsidies to protect consumers from external price shocks could, similarly, leave a country vulnerable to accelerating wage‐price spirals as the stabilizing relative price effects of a declining foreign asset position are dampened. Distributional conflict thus plays the role of sustainer rather than the primum mobile. Price controls could, in theory, better enable inflation management if these do not result in redistribution toward spenders. Such controls, however, create other trade‐offs for countries facing balance‐of‐payments fragility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Erciyes Akademi is the property of Erciyes Universitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Using a two-step approach GMM, this study examines the short- and long-term effects of fiscal deficit on the economic growth of 42 Sub-Saharan African nations between 2011 and 2021. The World Development Index, the most reliable source, is where the panel data is taken from. Using the Levin-Lin-Chu and Hadri LM tests for unit root, it was determined that there is no risk of a random walk in the data. The study's findings indicate that while the fiscal deficit has short-term, positive, and significant benefits on the economic growth of SSA countries, it has long-term, negative repercussions. According to the system GMM's results, an increase in the fiscal deficit of SSA countries is linked to a short-term increase in economic growth of 0.036 percent, while an increase in the fiscal deficit of one percentage point is linked to a long-term decline in economic growth of SSA countries of 0.013 percent, holding all other factors constant. The study's findings also showed that the budget deficit has a larger positive short-run coefficient than a negative long-run coefficient. The study also revealed that while real effective exchange rates and inflation short-term hinder economic growth, gross fixed capital creation and real interest rates are the primary drivers of economic expansion. Long-term economic growth in the SSA countries is also found to be positively and significantly impacted by gross fixed capital formation. According to the study, SSA nations should manage their fiscal deficits and, in the long run, provide more funds for gross fixed capital development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The US has reached a crisis stage regarding mounting sovereign debt, but a change of mindset and adoption of practical solutions can restore the nation to fiscal health. Unless actions are taken now to change the trajectories, deficits and debt are anticipated to enlarge over the coming decades with an aging population boosting spending, increasing debt service, and insufficient revenues. While there is no silver bullet, there are myriad policy actions that can cut deficits, lower debt to a sustainable level, reduce financial stability risks, and support US economic growth over the long run. Moreover, focusing upon lowering debt over a 20- or 30-year horizon instead of the typical 10-year CBO forecasting period can help rein in federal debt without significant damage to the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to find out how the impact felt by the community after the implementation of the VAT rate increase policy on individuals who act as end consumers, and business actors or MSMEs who act as distributors. The method used in the study is a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) from various studies on the impact and implications of VAT rate increases in Indonesia. The results of the study show that VAT affects the price of goods and services in the market, increases production costs and selling prices, and worsens inflation. However, the increase in VAT rates can also increase government tax revenues, reduce the budget deficit, and stabilize the country's fiscal condition. In addition, the increase in VAT can affect consumer behaviour and business investment, especially in the manufacturing, trade, and service industry sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tax regulation issues have been the focus since the COVID-19 crisis and the subsequent EU energy crisis. From the Keynesian approach, the expansionary fiscal policy of states can contribute to stimulating aggregate demand and, as a consequence, economic growth, on the other hand, the post-crisis macroeconomic policy trend has become fiscal compression (budget consolidation), corresponding to the neoliberal paradigm. This policy has been actively promoted by the supranational institutions of EU, which, with the help of various instruments of fiscal regulation, have effectively imposed budgetary consolidation on member countries. Considering that the European Commission continues to urge countries to better the sustainability of their public finances and believes that the situation with the tax system is only safe in some EU countries, while in others it finds significant imbalances, particularly high levels of public debt, which need to be corrected by the Stability and Growth Pact mechanisms, the relevance of this study is beyond doubt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to examine the budget deficit–inflation relationship, considering financial sector development and broad money supply as moderating and mediating variables. For this purpose, a panel data set ranging from polled mean group, mean group, and dynamic fixed effect estimation techniques are employed. Hence, the pooled mean group estimation result reveals that the budget deficit is inflationary. In addition, GDP per capita, the effective exchange rate, financial sector development, regulatory quality, and the interaction term of the budget deficit and financial sector development are significant determinants of inflation. The study further examines the role of the broad money supply as a mediating variable in the budget deficit–inflation relationship. The structural equation model results and the mediation effect tests confirmed a partial mediation effect of the broad money supply on the budget deficit–inflation relationship. Based on the findings, it is recommended to strengthen regulatory quality, reduce broad money supply, and improve financial sector development. By doing so, we can create a more stable and efficient economy that benefits everyone in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An approach to the effect of the budget deficit on the current account deficit has always been the focus of economists. In the macroeconomics literature, there are two approaches to investigate this relationship: the Keynesian approach and the Ricardian approach. The Keynesian approach accepts the existence of a relationship between the budget deficit and the current account deficit, while the Ricardian approach rejects this relationship. By examining the studies conducted in the field of Twin deficits, this study examines the hypothesis of Twin deficits and Triple deficits, as well as the impact of monetary policies on Triple deficits. In order to achieve the mentioned goal, the System Dynamics method and data from the period of 1999-2020 were used. The results of the study indicate the establishment of twin and triple deficit. The trend of the capital account shows that this account is always facing a deficit. However, the domestic savings gap does not seem to be fully compensated by foreign capital. The imbalance in the balance of payments aggravates the created budget deficit and can create an accelerated cycle of budget deficit. Also, in this study, the effect of monetary policy on triple deficits was also investigated. The results of the study show that using the monetary policy does not affect the formation of twin deficits and triple deficits [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores lending interest rates' impact on private investments in six West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) countries from 2004 to 2020. Using the feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) and more robust econometric procedures (LSDV and POLS), the results show that persistent budget deficits have significantly impacted lending interest rates within the WAMZ. The study concludes that country risk premium, foreign interest rate, and money supply are critical predictors of lending interest rates. The study refutes the assertion that budget deficits do not influence lending interest rates and gives credence to the neoclassical hypothesis. This explains that crowding out private investments in the WAMZ is a possible outcome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically and theoretically investigates the relationship between budget balances and external balances, the so-called twin deficit hypothesis. Using the US post-World War II data, I estimate a time-varying structural vector autoregressive model to evaluate the effects of structural breaks on this relationship. The empirical results reveal that the relationship is significantly time varying: (1) an increase in government spending and the consequent budget deficits tend to cause trade deficits in the Bretton Woods era; (2) in contrast, an increase in government spending tends to induce trade surpluses in the post-Bretton Woods era; and (3) with the exceptions of the 1980s and 2010s, government spending shocks cause trade deficits under a floating exchange regime. Using the open economy New Keynesian model with rule-of-thumb consumers, I find that a shift in exchange rate regimes helps in understanding empirical results (1) and (2). Moreover, slowly adjusted taxes inform our comprehension of exceptions in the 1980s, whereas zero lower bound aids our explanation of exceptions in the 2010s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the long‐term causal impact of Abenomics, a comprehensive policy package aiming to revitalise the Japanese economy. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), the study assesses the effects of Abenomics across a variety of economic indicators. The findings reveal mixed impacts, with no evidence of Abenomics reducing budget deficits or boosting exports, but a positive effect on real GDP per capita paired with a reduction in the unemployment rate. The evidence regarding the effect on labor force participation rates is weaker, with primarily statistically insignificant increases observed. These results offer insights into the effectiveness of comprehensive policy interventions and provide lessons for policymakers globally in the midst of a global economic slowdown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study proposes to assess the seigniorage perceived by the Algerian's budgetary authority as well as its link with the budget deficit, for the period which spans between 1965 and 2018. The seigniorage calculation is inspired by a large review of the literature. Analysis of the composition of seigniorage illustrates that purely monetary seigniorage was used in particular before 1979. Since then, the inflation tax has been the essential component of the seigniorage calculated between 1980 and 2018. The graphical and econometric results, using the ARDL model, show at the same time, the importance of seigniorage in financing Algerian's budget deficit, notably by the inflation tax in the short and long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most countries have suffered from prolonged budget deficits over the past two decades. This situation has made researchers and policymakers aware of the challenges to debt sustainability. This study investigates the threshold effect of institutional quality on debt sustainability in a panel of 82 countries, focussing on various threshold effects at different income levels. All the countries selected for this study fell under the categories of high income (HI), upper middle income (UMI), and lower-middle and low income (LMLI) based on the World Bank classifications. The dynamic threshold panel regression results indicate the presence of a threshold effect of institutional quality on the fiscal reaction function (including debt sustainability and cyclical fiscal policy) in all the countries with different income levels. In HI countries, fiscal adjustment weakens if institutional quality surpasses the threshold value of institutional quality. The fiscal adjustment in UMI countries is similar to that in HI countries but statistically insignificant. By contrast, governments in LMLI countries can promote sustainable debt if their institutional quality exceeds the threshold value. Thus, policymakers in LMLI countries need to prioritise their efforts to raise the level of institutional quality to promote debt sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to examine the impact of carbon emissions (carbon dioxide [CO2]) reduction on tax evasion behaviour. Design/methodology/approach: This study uses data from 200 countries from 2000 to 2017. The empirical analysis is based on various methodological tools, including ordinary least-squares model, fixed- and random-effects models. In addition, GMM and linear mixed model has been used for robustness purposes. Findings: The results show that carbon emissions reduction significantly affects tax evasion behaviour; when carbon emissions decrease, tax evasion behaviour increases. This indicates that the reduction of CO2 emissions is linked to significant costs, placing a financial burden on companies and leading them to evade taxes to counterbalance these costs. Practical implications: This study has important implications, as it highlights that the efforts made by countries to minimize CO2 emissions are associated with high costs and may lead to increased tax evasion, potentially contributing to countries' budget deficits. The results provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to implement effective environmental and fiscal regulations that contribute to a sustainable and eco-friendly future. These regulations can help maintain a balance between improving economic growth and ensuring the protection of the environment. Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first paper to test the impact of carbon emissions on tax evasion using macro-level data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research note reflects on an article by Robert Goldberg and Mariano Torras titled "Explaining Stagnant Living Standards in a Generalized Asset Growth Context." The note discusses the measurement and theory presented in the article, focusing on the evolutionary changes in financial practices associated with money manager capitalism (MMC) and the effects of financialization on stagnation, inequality, instability, and risk. The note proposes an alternative financialization ratio (FRA) that captures the speculative element of MMC and its impact on demand stagnation and inequality. It also considers the sustainability of the current financialized phase of the economy and the role of government budget deficits in driving profit growth and asset price increases. The note concludes by discussing the potential risks and factors that could lead to the end of the stock market boom. [Extracted from the article]

Conventional wisdom suggests budget maneuvers threaten long‐term structural balance because they transfer resources from the future to the present by non‐transparent means. Budget maneuvers remain poorly understood in part because they are more difficult to observe than traditional tax and expenditure changes to remedy budget deficits. In this research, a taxonomy of budget maneuvers influenced by the recent work of the Volcker Alliance and other public budgeting scholars is used to create an original tally of maneuvers used by U.S. state governments during the Great Recession. Ten states implemented more than half of documented budget maneuver use during that era, while incidence of maneuver use for the remaining 40 states is largely limited to transfers of balances from cash funds. This supports NASBO's contention that maneuvers are not a primary budget‐balancing instrument for most states. This research then presents the postrecession trajectories of four states that relied heavily on maneuvers—California, Connecticut, Illinois, and Wisconsin. While California and Wisconsin largely curtailed the use of budget maneuvers after the Great Recession, Connecticut and Illinois continued to implement them as they remained mired in subsequent budget crises. Key Takeaways: This research presents a long‐run follow‐up of states that used budget maneuvers to manage budget deficits during the Great Recession using a qualitative approach to identify cases of maneuver use.Although maneuvers are rightfully criticized as a nontransparent means of borrowing, this activity is neither widespread nor strongly predicts a state's trajectory of expenditure growth after the end of a fiscal crisis.Most documented budget maneuver use during the Great Recession is limited to a small number of states: Ten states adopted more than half of all documented budget maneuvers, while most budget maneuver use among the remaining forty states was limited to cash fund transfers.Four states that heavily implemented budget maneuvers during the Great Recession followed divergent paths in the years afterwards. California implemented significant reforms to its budgetary institutions that appear to have improved its fiscal circumstances. Illinois and Connecticut continued to muddle through ongoing budget crises. Changes in the political control of Wisconsin resulted in shifts from maneuvers to budget cuts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a panel of 17 Latin American countries for the period 2002–18, we study the impact of economic variables on government approval. Our empirical analysis shows that the one economic variable that appears consistently in all estimates is economic growth. More specifically, we show that for each point of additional growth, the approval rating increases between 1.1 and 1.9 percentage points. Other variables, such as inflation, government spending, and the composition of spending, are significant in only some of the specifications used, while growth is remarkably robust in all of them. Among non-economic variables, the lack of solid institutions also appears consistently as significant as well as the lagged value of government approval ratings. These results suggest that a program focused on growth has a positive influence on the popularity of the government. This conclusion is particularly relevant in a region where populism has been remarkably persistent over time and where the norm has been to run large budget deficits to gain popular support, with consequences on inflation and the external accounts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the dynamic stability of public debt and its solvency condition in the face of crisis periods (1980–2021) in a sample of 11 euro-area countries. The focus is on the feedback loop between the dynamic stability of public debt and interest rates, discounted by economic growth, in conjunction with budget deficits during tranquil and turbulent periods. Using the GMM panel dynamic model, the results show that dynamic stability was the case before the global financial crisis (GFC), while from GFC to the pandemic, dynamic instability prevailed and persisted in the evolution of public debt. Furthermore, panel threshold estimates show that dynamic instability of debt starts to violate the solvency condition when the borrowing cost is above 3.29%, becomes even stronger when it is above 4.39%, and exerts even more pressure when the level of debt is greater than 91%. However, the debt sustainability condition reverses course when economic growth is higher than 3.4%. The main policy implication drawn from the results is that low interest rates can create a self-reinforcing loop of high debt, which itself is a serious matter for public authorities when designing economic policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ukraine has been a priority partner of the EU since the signing of the Association Agreement in 2014. It was the significant financial and economic support of the EU as a whole and, in particular, of individual EU member states that became a key tool for avoiding catastrophic consequences in the financial and economic system of our country at the beginning of a full-scale war and for the current financing of the state budget deficit. Today, the European Union's support for Ukraine is extremely significant, although it is accompanied by a number of problematic issues that require an in-depth study of certain aspects of economic partnership in terms of finding ways and directions to improve the use of the potential of bilateral economic relations with the European Union as a whole and with individual EU member states. The methodological basis of the study is based on general scientific and special methods of economic theory, in particular, methods of theoretical generalization and comparative analysis for a comprehensive consideration of the research issue, and statistical methods of analysis. In the course of the study, the statistical materials of the European Union and the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine on foreign trade in goods were used. Modern scientific views on the content and prospects of Ukraine's economic partnership with the EU are studied. The key stages of the development of Ukraine's economic partnership with the European Union are summarized and schematized, with details of the areas of sectoral cooperation. The main indicators of trade relations and their role in the economies of the studied countries are analyzed. The key obstacles to further deepening of the economic partnership are substantiated, the elimination of which should be the primary goal of our country on the way to European integration. The obtained results can serve for further study of trade relations and their role in the economies of the studied countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective movement of financial flows, ability to beforehand service of debt obligations, and creditworthiness of the state are signs of trust for the global financial community and the guarantee of successful cooperation with international financial organizations. The purpose of the article is to indicate the important directions of effective management of state financial flows in the context of strengthening Ukraine's debt and budget security for its sustainable economic development in the international environment. As a result of the assessment of the financial flows of the State Budget of Ukraine during the period of martial law in Ukraine, the growth of budget revenues and expenditures of their main components was revealed. Also, it was accompanied by the growth of the budget deficit and the state debt due to the state borrowing loans to balance the flows of revenues and expenditures. A comparison of the financial flows of Germany, France, and Ukraine showed among the studied countries the highest share of the budget deficit in expenditures in Ukraine. The existence of a budget deficit and a high level of debt burden is the main factor that unbalances the flows of budget revenues and expenditures and complicates the socio-economic situation of Ukraine. Possible directions for improving the effectiveness of Ukraine's debt policy strategy focused on ensuring constant assessment, monitoring and control of indicators of the state's debt and budget security are outlined. Based on the experience of the financial provision of developed countries of the world, directions for improving the management of the movement of state financial flows were proposed. They are based on strengthening control over the effectiveness of managing budget financial flows and implementing innovative budgeting practices aimed at ensuring the economical and reasonable use of budget funds, which will ensure the security of the state in the international economic environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the recent surge in inflation and predicts that inflation rates in the G7 countries will continue to fall to 2% or lower in 2024-2025. The inflationary pressure was caused by a combination of wartime-style fiscal and monetary policies and pandemic-related distortions to product and labor markets. However, these sources of inflationary pressure are now receding. The article also highlights the importance of monitoring fiscal deficits, monetary growth, credit conditions, labor markets, and supply disruptions as indicators of future inflation trends. The analysis suggests that policy divergence may occur among the G7 economies, with the US indicators looking stronger than in Europe. Overall, the article concludes that the 'wartime' characteristics of recent inflation are fading, and further declines in inflation are likely. [Extracted from the article]