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Estimating the contribution of enslaved workers to output and growth in the United States during the first half of the nineteenth century is a crucial building block to better understand the contours of nineteenth‐century US economic history, and more generally, the connection between slavery and capitalism. Existing estimates only present a partial picture and are potentially problematic. In this paper, we use data on enslaved person valuations to calculate the contribution made by enslaved workers to regional and national gross national product (GNP) in 1839 and 1859 and to the growth in per capita output in the 20 years before the Civil War. We find that in the United States, enslaved workers were responsible for somewhere between 12.49 per cent and 18.0 per cent of the increase in output per capita between 1839 and 1859. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with the onset of and policy response to the novel coronavirus in the United States. The WEI is a weekly composite index of real economic activity, with eight of 10 series available the Thursday after the end of the reference week. In addition to being a weekly real activity index, the WEI has strong predictive power for output measures and provided an accurate nowcast of current‐quarter GDP growth in the first half of 2020, with weaker performance in the second half. We document how the WEI responded to key events and data releases during the first 10 months of the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the medium‐ to long‐run effects of slavery in the United States in a spatial regression discontinuity design. Using the boundary between free and slave states immediately antebellum, we find that legal slavery decreased per capita manufacturing output by as much as 30% in the decades following the Civil War. Perhaps surprisingly, agricultural output and farm values were only briefly depressed in former slave states after the war. Although emancipation ended slavery, political forces kept the institution from being completely disintegrated, and we explore channels through which this was possible. We show that slavery affected the structure of the economy in a given region—specifically through agricultural production decisions—and that these structures persisted long after passage of the 13th Amendment. However, sharecropping played a relatively small role in this region. Our results support mounting evidence in recent literature of the significant and lasting effects of institutions on economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As science becomes increasingly cross‐disciplinary and scientific models become increasingly cross‐coupled, standardized practices of model evaluation are more important than ever. For normally distributed data, mean squared error (MSE) is ideal as an objective measure of model performance, but it gives little insight into what aspects of model performance are "good" or "bad." This apparent weakness has led to a myriad of specialized error metrics, which are sometimes aggregated to form a composite score. Such scores are inherently subjective, however, and while their components may be interpretable, the composite itself is not. We contend that, a better approach to model benchmarking and interpretation is to decompose MSE into interpretable components. To demonstrate the versatility of this approach, we outline some fundamental types of decomposition and apply them to predictions at 1,021 streamgages across the conterminous United States from three streamflow models. Through this demonstration, we hope to show that each component in a decomposition represents a distinct concept, like "season" or "variability," and that simple decompositions can be combined to represent more complex concepts, like "seasonal variability," creating an expressive language through which to interrogate models and data. Plain Language Summary: Models are essential scientific tools for explaining and predicting phenomena ranging from weather and climate, to health outcomes, to economic development, to the origins of the universe, and testing competing models is one of the most basic scientific activites. Yet, how scientists evaluate and justify their models can be inconsistent or even arbitrary. Traditionally, one performance metric—such as mean squared error—is used to identify the best model, but one metric provides little insight into what aspects of a model are "good" or "bad." This paper proposes a basic language for expressing different aspects of a model's performance. On one hand, this is useful for determining which aspects of model may require revision, but it also allows the modeler to separate out the best elements among several models and combine them to form an ensemble, analogous to how an audio engineer mixes together multiple tracks to form the best rendition of a musical piece. Key Points: Mean squared error (MSE) is an objective but somewhat enigmatic measure of model performanceMSE can be decomposed into components that quantify specific aspects of model performance, such as bias and varianceMixing components among models yields a form of ensemble prediction [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural resource dependence, although commonly invoked in natural resource sociology, has often been ambiguously defined. Communities are frequently described as dependent on natural resource development, but limited attention has been paid to what that means. In the literature, resource dependence is often treated as over‐specialization in, or over‐reliance upon, the natural resource sectors. However, the logic of over‐specialization conceptually grounds dependence in poor economic outcomes. Thus, a one‐dimensional typology of dependence based on a threshold of the share of development in the natural resource sector—as commonly used—does not fully capture the concept and risks tautology. In this paper, I address this ambiguity by formally defining natural resource dependence as over‐specialization in the natural resource sectors. I then present an ideal typology, known as the Natural Resource Community Typology, and a corresponding classification scheme for rural communities in the United States. The typology integrates both extractive and non‐extractive natural resource activity and has two dimensions—the level of development and the level of economic prosperity—and six mutually exclusive categories—extractive specialized, extractive dependent, non‐extractive specialized, non‐extractive dependent, hybrid specialized, and hybrid dependent. I classify counties from 2000 to 2015 and find that while extractive dependence decreased over the study period, non‐extractive dependence increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an alternative approach to penalized regression for model selection in the context of high‐dimensional linear regressions where the number of covariates is large, often much larger than the number of available observations. We consider the statistical significance of individual covariates one at a time, while taking full account of the multiple testing nature of the inferential problem involved. We refer to the proposed method as One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) procedure, and use ideas from the multiple testing literature to control the probability of selecting the approximating model, the false positive rate, and the false discovery rate. OCMT is easy to interpret, relates to classical statistical analysis, is valid under general assumptions, is faster to compute, and performs well in small samples. The usefulness of OCMT is also illustrated by an empirical application to forecasting U.S. output growth and inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A stochastic framework for coordination of macroeconomic policies is introduced in this paper. It is suggested that: (i) measures of policy accountability should allow for the climate of uncertainty that surrounds policy decisions, and (ii) most models of aggregate economic activity impose arbitrary specifications of uncertainty that do not appear to be empirically justifiable. Ambiguities in interpreting the Humphrey-Hawkins reports of policy authorities are sketched in section II; a proposal for maximizing the ex ante prospects of policy objectives is illustrated in section III; finally, nonstationary allocations of uncertainty are discussed in sections IV and V. This paper provides a brief survey of ongoing work by members of the Federal Reserve Board staff on the role of uncertainty in policy forecasts. It suggests that policy discussion could be improved by more explicit consideration of the allocation of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article comments on a paper published within the issue, "Capital Formation and the Recent Productivity Slowdown," by Peter Clark. The author also discusses results from his own research in "Accounting for United States Economic Growth, 1929-1969," and applies it to Clark's paper. It is suggested that an abrupt rise in energy prices may have affected growth rates during the mid-1970s. The author also looks at a similar analysis made by John Kendrick, who focuses on the U.S. postwar period of 1948-1966.

R&D subsidisation is acknowledged as a major spurrer of the economic development of regions, but is seldom considered in the literature concerning regional diversification. Conversely, robust evidence has been gathered about the impact of relatedness on the ability of regions to explore new technological domains. The work employs patent data to assess the extent to which related and unrelated diversification processes in the United States, between 1981 and 2010, are influenced by the existing regional knowledge base and the magnitude of R&D public funds, providing evidence for both drivers by means of econometric estimations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The high level of debt among households outside the top end of the income distribution has led many economists to assert that household debt has been an important component of the increase in income inequality in the United States. In addition, the yield spread provides information about the overall condition of the economy and may also be tied into the distribution of income. The paper's results show that increases in the yield spread and household debt correspond with increases in top income shares, resulting in increases in income inequality. However, as household debt and income inequality increase, the yield spread contracts, which suggests future economic contraction. Thus, rising inequality may signal future economic weakness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article comments on three papers within the issue: "Long-Term Effects of Government Deficits on the U.S. Output Potential," by George von Furstenburg, "Capital Formation and the Recent Productivity Slowdown," by Peter Clark, and "U.S. Productivity Growth Recession: History and Prospects for the Future," by Michael McCarthy. The author discusses each article and criticizes their shortcomings. He looks at von Furstenburg's use of the Phelps-Shell model of dynamic economic growth and notes the usefulness of neoclassical growth theory. The author feels that his discussion on the effects of government deficits on output growth or productivity represent a fruitful economic analysis innovation.

Privatization of state government services is commonplace, but our understanding of its effects is limited by data availability. We study the relationship between American state government contracting and public sector wages. Governments have used public sector employment to support a variety of goals, including social equity and economic development, but privatization, as a new public management (NPM) reform, may shift the focus. Our empirical analysis shows that state privatization of service delivery is associated with decreases in the public sector wage premium, but that these effects are not driven by gender, race, or low‐levels of educational attainment. The fidelity of the implementation to NPM values conditions these effects. We also find that contracting service delivery is associated with a lower public sector wage premium for middle‐class workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite economic growth since the recession, the gap between the richest and the poorest segments of the population remains one of the most pressing concerns of contemporary America. This paper uses IR-95/20, IR-80/20, and IR-65/35 ratios to measure the income divides between the richest and the poorest segments in the mid-to-large-sized metropolises of the U.S. Southeast, their variation across ethnicities, and their association with metropolitan level attributes such as diversity, segregation, socio-economic, and other built-environment, and labor characteristics. The income divide ratios serve as the dependent variables whereas principal components along with state-dummy variables serve as the explanatory variables in regressions analyses. The metropolises that are large, diverse, and better educated are the most income-divided whereas those with lower educated people are less divided. Metropolises with larger shares of their labor engaged in primary sectors of economy have higher income divides; this observation also holds true for African Americans and Hispanics. Metropolises that gained in intermixing during 2000-2014 are associated with a lower income divide and vice versa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 1957 and 1990, nearly 100 nuclear reactors were constructed throughout the U.S., and nuclear power currently accounts for 20 percent of electricity production nationwide. Nuclear plants are often constructed in small communities for which they constitute a large source of employment and income. To date, 24 nuclear reactors have undergone decommissioning, and more are expected in the future, particularly as nuclear reactors age and face increasingly strict regulations. This paper examines the effects of nuclear decommissioning over time at the county-level on measures of employment, income, and population using difference-in-differences regression and propensity score matching. Panel data are obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau, and cover the years 1975-2014. The analysis finds that nuclear decommissioning is associated with positive and statistically significant increases in employment and per capita income over time. Results suggest that nuclear decommissioning may actually be a positive force in regional economic development, and concludes with limitations of the approach and implications for future research. As an emerging area of research, this paper is meant to build on previous work, as well as to provide a basis for further discussion and debate on the economic future of nuclear host communities and regional economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last year, a central issue in regional economic growth debate has been represented by the empirical analysis of Verdoorn's law related to the long-term dynamic relationship between the rate of growth in output and the productivity growth due to increasing returns. Several papers have tested Verdoorn's law on European countries as well as many other world economies. Recently, attempts have been made to provide foundations for a spatial version of the original law specification. The main contributions were dedicated to the inclusion of spatial dependence in the economic model. Surprisingly, in the literature on Verdoom's law the analysis of the spatial heterogeneity is not often considered. The aim of this paper is the regional analysis of the spatial dependence and heterogeneity in Verdoorn's law, identifying spatial regimes that can be interpreted as clusters of productivity growth in European regions at NUTS 2 level. To pursue this objective, an optimization algorithm for the identification of groups is used. This constitutes a modified version of Simulated Annealing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policymakers across the Southern U.S. have directed considerable attention to regional economic development plans, with mixed results. Questions remain over what types of industries, firms, and/or policies can drive long-range growth. Over the past two decades, researchers have started to focus on high-growth firms (HGFs) due to their potential innovation spillovers and job creation prospects, both of which drive further economic development. Employing databases from the Inc. 500, this study explores the dynamics of HGFs within Southern and comparative contexts. The first goal of this paper is to explore Southern HGF activity in comparison with the U.S. at-large. The second is to examine the geographical characteristics of HGFs within the South, which will include an exploration of locations, industrial mix, and the factors that could encourage HGF development and agglomeration. This paper will also analyze the longer-term ownership and acquisition patterns of HGFs across the South. Are such firms remaining embedded in the South or moving elsewhere through mergers or acquisitions? The paper concludes with a discussion of the impacts of HGFs on regional economic development and moreover, whether existing policies are conducive to these firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Different economic growth episodes display very different distributional characteristics, both across countries and over time. Growth is sometimes accompanied by rising and sometimes by falling inequality. Applied economists have come to rely on the growth incidence curve, which gives the quantile‐specific rate of income growth over a certain period, to describe these differences. This paper introduces a mean‐independent analogue, the delta Lorenz curve, which gives the cumulative change in income share up to each quantile. We also develop estimation and inference procedures for both functions of quantiles. We establish the limiting null distribution of the test statistics of interest for those functions, and propose resampling methods to implement inference in practice. The proposed methods are used to compare the growth processes in the USA and Brazil during 1995–2007. Although growth in the average real wages was disappointing in both countries, the distribution of that growth was markedly different. In the USA, wage growth was mediocre for the bottom 80% of the sample, but much more rapid for the top 20%. In Brazil, conversely, wage growth was rapid below the median, and negative at the top. Wage shares fell in the USA up to the 83rd percentile, and rose in Brazil up to the 65th percentile. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Regional Science Policy & Practice is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Abstract: This paper quantifies the impact on U.S. employment from imports and exports during 1995–2011, using the World Input–Output Database. We find that the growth in U.S. exports led to increased demand for 2 million jobs in manufacturing, 0.5 million in resource industries, and a remarkable 4.1 million jobs in services, totaling 6.6 million. Two‐thirds of those service sectors jobs are due to the export of services themselves, whereas one‐third is due to the intermediate demand from manufacturing and resource—or merchandise—exports, so the total labor demand gain due to merchandise exports was 3.7 million jobs. In comparison, U.S. merchandise imports from China led to reduced demand of 1.4 million jobs in manufacturing and 0.6 million in services (with small losses in resource industries), with total job losses of 2.0 million. It follows that the expansion in U.S. merchandise exports relative to imports from China over 1995–2011 created net demand for about 1.7 million jobs. Comparing the growth of U.S. merchandise exports to merchandise imports from all countries, we find a fall in net labor demand due to trade, but comparing the growth of total U.S. exports to total imports from all countries, then there is a rise in net labor demand because of the growth in service exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In a context of rising protectionist rhetoric, this paper looks at the potential impact of trade wars initiated by a change in US trade policies. We use a static multicountry, multisector general equilibrium model to evaluate six modalities of three potential trade wars—for a total of 18 scenarios—between the USA and China, between the USA and Mexico, and a combination of the two previous conflicts. In each case, we evaluate various forms of trade retaliation by the US partner(s): the same level of import duty as the one imposed by the USA, an import duty that minimises welfare loss, a duty that minimises terms‐of‐trade deterioration, a duty that generates the same amount of collected revenue, and finally a Nash equilibrium. We conclude that there is no scenario in which the US government augments its domestic welfare or GDP. There may be sectoral gains in value added in the USA, but they are small and to the detriment of other sectors. While losses for China are relatively small, potential losses for the Mexican economy are significant. There are also free riders of these trade wars. Finally, the way in which trade retaliations are designed matters greatly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper utilizes a novel dynamic propensity score matching approach for multiple cohorts of U.S. counties between 1989 and 1999 to examine local economy resilience to rare natural disasters. Affected counties are sorted based on disaster intensity and are carefully matched to similar counties that did not experience a disaster. A difference-in-difference estimator compares trends of affected counties' postdisaster business establishments, employment, and payroll to counterfactual trends in the matched counties. All affected counties experienced short-run drops in economic activity that was particularly noticeable in higher-intensity disasters. In the longer run, less distressed counties returned to their estimated counterfactual trends, but countieswith lower predisaster socioeconomic conditions still lagged in growth, particularly in cases of lowerintensity disasters. Policymakers can use this information to better prepare responses to future disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Innovation in local economic development strategy is necessary to support struggling regions and foster growth across municipalities with varying resources and needs. This paper presents a case of innovation in local economic development strategy to illustrate how institutional entrepreneurship can be used as a tool to help local governments innovatively approach economic development strategy. Through the creation of the Wireless Research Center of North Carolina, institutional entrepreneurs transformed the institutionalized role for local government in economic development, while simultaneously creating a new institutional form that would support local development goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Before 2007/08, the European Monetary Union (EMU) was expected to be enlarged on schedule, but the European sovereign debt problem, triggered by the exogenous US sub-prime crisis, not only has revealed the EMU's fiscal coordination failure, but also has weakened regional financial integration. The stagnation of financial integration will therefore increase the cost of sustaining a monetary union, which in turn slows EMU enlargement and ruins the reputation of the euro. This paper aims to measure the damage to financial integration and to provide a more precise answer on real interest rate parity (RIP) convergence. Our estimation indicates that RIP between the EMU and some accession candidates is still valid after the interruptions of the financial crises. However, convergence of real interest rates cannot be achieved until 2030. This implies the EMU authority must strengthen regional financial integration to solidify the EMU and then be able to re-start enlargement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the nature of structural change and the sources of economic growth of an economy, especially the relative importance of different industries, is essential for policy-making. This paper estimates industry contribution to economic growth in both Canada and the United States. It argues that industry contribution should be evaluated on the basis of the performance of an industry in terms of creating economic value relative to other industries. In particular, it calls for the quantity and the price effects, which is consistent with real GDP in the chained-Fisher index that values the industry more when its price rises and less when its price declines. This is an important departure from the traditional methodologies that consider only quantity effect. This paper shows that the contribution from demand-driven industries is significantly more than the finding based on traditional thinking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Regional Science Policy & Practice is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

For more than five decades, the federal, state, and local governments have subsidized mass transit systems through sales, gasoline, and property taxes with an expectation that it would improve mobility to low-income citizens, reduce carbon footprints and traffic congestion, and facilitate regional economic growth. However, in times of financial crisis and chronic government budget deficits, the inefficient use of a mass transit system can increase public outcry over the wasteful spending of government funds and taxpayers' monies. To find ways to utilize mass transit systems more efficiently across the United States, this paper aimed to identify the benchmark transit practices that every mass transit system can emulate and then continuously improve its performance. To achieve these goals, this paper analyzed the multiple years of past performances of 262 mass transit agencies in the United States using data envelopment analysis and the Malmquist productivity index and then provided practical guidelines for enhancing mass transit efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper outlines the emergence of a New Washington Consensus associated with leading philanthropies of the new millennium. This emergent development paradigm by no means represents a historic break with the market rationalities of neoliberalism, nor does it represent a radical departure from older models of early 20th century philanthropy. Rather, it is new in its global ambition to foster resilient market subjects for a globalized world; and new in its employment of micro-market transformations to compensate for macro-market failures. Focusing on reforms pioneered by the new philanthropic partnerships in education and global health, the paper indicates how the targets of intervention are identified as communities that have been failed by both governments and markets. The resulting interventions are commonly justified in terms of 'return on investment'. But the problems they target keep returning because the underlying causes of failure are left unaddressed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a simple dynamic asset pricing model, this paper investigates the relationship between the precision of public information about economic growth and stock market returns. After fully characterizing expected returns and conditional volatility, I show that (i) higher precision of signals tends to increase the risk premium, (ii) when signals are imprecise the equity premium is bounded above independently of investors' risk aversion, (iii) return volatility is U-shaped with respect to investors' risk aversion, and (iv) the relationship between conditional expected returns and conditional variance is ambiguous. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT: In this paper, we examine the convergence hypothesis using a long memory framework that allows for structural breaks and does not rely on a benchmark country using both univariate and multivariate estimates of the long memory parameter d. Using per capita GDP gaps, we confirm the findings of non‐stationarity and long memory behavior that have been found previously in the literature using univariate tests. However, the support for these findings is much weaker when using a multivariate framework, in which case we find more evidence of stationary behavior. Based on these results, we also investigate club formation, something that would suggest the presence of conditional convergence. We describe a club formation methodology using the sequential testing criteria that we have employed in our analysis as the basis for forming clusters or clubs of countries with similar convergence characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between immigrants' genetic diversity and economic development in the United States during the late nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth centuries, a period commonly referred to as the age of mass migration from Europe to the New World. Our panel model estimates show that during this period, immigrants' genetic diversity is significantly positively correlated with measures of U.S. counties' economic development. There exists also a significant positive relationship between immigrants' genetic diversity in 1870 and contemporaneous measures of U.S. counties' average income. (JEL J11, O51, Z13) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Using data on 48 contiguous U.S. states and a spatial econometric approach, this paper examines short‐ and long‐run effects of productive higher education and highway infrastructure spending financed by different revenue sources on state economic growth. Following the Lagrange Multiplier, Wald, and Likelihood Ratio tests, the data are found to be characterized by both spatial lag and spatial error processes, leading to the estimation of a dynamic spatial Durbin model. By decomposing results of the dynamic spatial Durbin model into short‐ and long‐run direct as well as indirect (spillover) effects, we show that accounting for spillover effects provides a more comprehensive approach to uncovering the effects of productive government spending on growth. We find that, regardless of the financing source, productive higher education and highway spending have statistically significant short‐ and long‐run direct as well as spillover effects on state income growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the impact of tourism on total and extreme monetary poverty, in order to illuminate the debate surrounding the links between tourism and poverty. We apply fixed effects models to panel data on the Peruvian departments for the period 2001-2013. We also identify the key factors in the tourism model affecting the empirical results. Our findings show that tourism is important for the poor, but its benefits do not reach the extreme poor to the same extent, and its potential is not fully exploited. The weak macroenvironment and low community participation impede poverty reduction through tourism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper studies the patterns of government expenditure stimuli among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ( OECD) countries during the Great Recession (2007-2009). Overall, we find that the USA net fiscal stimulus was modest relative to peers, despite it being the epicenter of the crisis, and having access to relatively cheap funding of its twin deficits. Of the 28 countries in the sample, the USA is ranked among the bottom third in terms of the rate of expansion of consolidated government consumption and investment expenditures. Contrary to historical experience, emerging markets had strongly countercyclical policy during the period immediately preceding the Great Recession and the Great Recession itself. Federal unions, emerging markets and countries with very high gross domestic product ( GDP) growth during the pre-recession period saw larger net fiscal stimulus on average than their counterparts. We also find that greater net fiscal stimulus was associated with lower flow costs of general government debt in the same or subsequent period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By demonstrating the superiority of the present-value to the recoupment-period criterion, Peter Lindert [2] has made a major contribution to the analysis of foreign investment controls. In fact, after reading Lindert's analysis, one wonders how the recoupment-period criterion got a foothold in the first place' the assessment of the net impact of a control program is clearly dependent on a comparison of capital inflows and outflows occurring at different points in time; and the accepted and traditional way to make such intertemporal comparisons is by a present value calculation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses change in oil and gas policies pushed by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) during the administrations of Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. Administrative policy changes occurred not only because of election outcomes and the emergence of new governing coalitions but BLM's selective utilization of policy tools such as rulemaking, planning, environmental impact analyses, and the use of discretionary authority to increase or relax enforcement decisions. The data reveal that BLM put more emphasis on the use of discretionary authority to limit environmental inspections and to limit environmental reviews of proposed drilling projects under Bush while agency officials gave priority to adopting new planning procedures to allow greater stakeholder input under Obama as well as increasing the number of environmental inspections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several studies have recently rejected the common hypothesis that aggregate output is normally distributed. The present paper reconsiders this issue for US output growth. To this end, it focusses on the shape parameter b of the exponential power distribution ( EPD), the two polar values of which constitute the normal distribution and the Laplace distribution with its fatter tails, respectively. The paper first warns against premature conclusions that neglect a structural break in output volatility. On the basis of a battery of Monte Carlo experiments, it is then found out that the results strongly depend on which subperiod is considered, the Great Inflation ( GI) or the Great Moderation ( GM) period, and which data are referred to, the growth rates of GDP, firm sector output, and quarterly or monthly industrial production ( IP). Here, only quarterly IP can be said to exhibit fat tails in GI as well as GM; other evidence is mixed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we explore how satellite images of global night lights from year 1992 to 2003 can be used to estimate economic activity at the sub-regional level in the US and China. The night lights based estimates of economic activity are then spatially analysed and compared with subregional economic indicators where available for selected years. We also briefly discuss two theoretical models that shed light on the geospatial patterns reflected by the night light data. The results are presented with a series of maps, charts and tables. Resumen. En este artículo exploramos el uso potencial de imágenes de satélite de la iluminación nocturna global desde 1992 a 2003 para estimar la actividad económica a escala subregional en los EE.UU. y en China. A continuación se analizan espacialmente las estimaciones de la actividad económica basadas en la iluminación nocturna y se comparan con los indicadores económicos subregionales disponibles para los años del estudio. Discutimos también brevemente dos modelos teoréticos que podrían ilustrar los patrones geoespaciales que reflejan los datos de iluminación nocturna. Los resultados se presentan junto con una serie de mapas, gráficos y cuadros. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using simulations projecting Chinese economic growth into the future, this paper first examines when China will overtake the USA to become the largest economy. Demographic changes that affect economic growth are taken into consideration in these projections. China is expected to become number one sometime in the mid-2020s, unless its growth rate of gross domestic product per worker declines dramatically, à la the lost decade of Japan. Next, the paper examines whether China becoming the number one economy will mean its currency, the renminbi (RMB), will become the international key currency. According to the basket currency regressions during the period that Chinese currency was gradually appreciating against the US dollar from July 2005 to August 2008, it is shown that the RMB has already acquired a strong influence on the Asian currencies. This shows that the RMB is fast gaining the status of a regional anchor currency for a possible regional joint float. As the Chinese government proceeds with internationalization of its currency, the RMB is expected to gain in the ranking of other aspects of international currency, such as the store of value and the medium of exchange. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a new comprehensive panel of annual state-level income inequality measures spanning the postwar period 1945–2004. For many states, the share of income held by the top decile experienced a prolonged period of stability after World War II, followed by a substantial increase in inequality during the 1980s and 1990s. This paper also presents an examination of the long-run relationship between income inequality and economic growth. Our findings indicate that the long-run relationship between inequality and growth is positive in nature and driven principally by the concentration of income in the upper end of the income distribution. ( JEL D31, O40) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses US metropolitan regions in terms of the adoption of e-commerce by businesses using a combination of data from Interactive Week, Alexa Research and Hoover's Online. This analysis shows that e-commerce is providing the impetus and means to reorganise the economic and geographic space in which businesses operate. Spatial divisions in the use of e-commerce are identified in which many cities in the South and Midwest appear to be lagging behind their counterparts in other parts of the country. Thus, rather than the destruction of place and geography predicted by some, e-commerce is reorganising the economic space in which businesses operate. Although not every place will become a major e-commerce hub, all regions will be shaped by the way in which firms adapt to this new commercial medium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of expansionary fiscal policy intended to increase economic growth by using infrastructure-focused stimulus packages is analyzed by considering the debt to GDP ratio dynamics model. It is shown that for the data characterizing the current state of the US economy the government investment in infrastructure cannot decrease the debt to GDP ratio. The paper contributes to the ongoing fiscal policy debate whether government investment in infrastructure is an effective approach to boost the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High growth and progressive regions possess a culture that promotes innovation. In-novation depends on a region's ability to use its own existing knowledge and knowledge generated elsewhere. This paper demonstrates the importance of the ability to absorb external knowledge in ex-plaining innovation productivity for 106 U.S. metropolitan areas. Using a spatial interaction model of patent citation flows with origin and destination dependence, the destination fixed-effects coefficients provides a measure of a region's absorptive capacity. We identify local conditions that shape a region's absorptive capacity and demonstrate it has a positive and significant impact on innovation productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A random walk with drift is a good univariate representation of US GDP. This paper shows, however, that US economic downturns have been associated with predictable short-term recoveries and with changes in long-term GDP forecasts that are substantially smaller than the initial drop. To detect these predictable changes, it is important to use a multivariate time series model. We discuss reasons why univariate representations can miss key characteristics of the underlying variable such as predictability, especially during recessions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I use data on U.S. manufacturing establishments to study the spatial reallocation of resources that takes place within surviving firms as they open and close establishments in different regions. To motivate the empirical analysis, I extend existing models of industry dynamics to include production‐location decisions within firms. Consistent with the theory, the empirical results show that only a fraction of firms make the same product in multiple regions, that multiregional firms are larger and more productive on average compared to single‐region firms, and that “region switching” is pervasive among multiregional firms and correlated with changes in firm and firm‐region characteristics. (JEL L2, F12, F23) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Given its significant policy implications, the nexus between public expenditures and economic growth has been the subject of an extensive and often emotive theoretical and empirical debate. In this paper, a semiparametric model is used to explore the link between GDP and defence and non-defence government spending in the USA over the period 1929-2009. Evidence reported herein indicates that the latter represents a greater stimulus vis-à-vis the former. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Background: Economic development has brought rapid shifts in the food environment of Chinese children and adolescents. Objectives: To assess the changes in childhood nutritional status across ethnic groups and economic status from 2005 to 2014. Methods: 664 094 Chinese Han and 224 151 ethnic minority children and adolescents aged 7 to 18 years were assessed in three national cross‐sectional surveys (2005, 2010 and 2014). Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of each ethnic group was categorized into four strata of socioeconomic status. To assess ethnic disparities at each time point, we used logistic regression to estimate the prevalence odds ratios (OR) for thinness, overweight and obesity in the 24 ethnic minority groups vs Han Chinese. Results: Children in the two upper economic strata (over about US$4000 GDP per capita) had a high prevalence of overweight and obesity, while those in the two lower economic strata (below US$4000 GDP per capita) had a high prevalence of thinness. From 2005 to 2014, the prevalence of thinness decreased from 18.6% to 13.1% in Han children, and from 20.4% to 17.1% in ethnic minority students. At the same time, the prevalence of overweight and obesity increased from 10.4% to 17.7% in Han children, and from 4.3% to 9.2% in ethnic minority students, respectively. Conclusions: A rapid nutritional transition has occurred from 2005 to 2014 with shifts from thinness to overweight and obesity in both Han and ethnic minority children and adolescents, reflecting local GDP per capita. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This paper investigates diverse public opinion on the rise of the People's Republic of China through a survey conducted in the tri-state region of Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio. In the midst of a global financial crisis, China's financial support to the US economy, as well as its recent modernization of the People's Liberation Army, echoed a serious public anxiety over a potential military and economic security threat to the United States. Will the rise of China create a military as well as an economic security threat to the United States? Is there anticipation that the continuing rapid economic growth in China will overtake the US economy within three decades? Will its successful economic growth lead China to democratization? Introducing scholarly debates on these research questions, the research in this paper examines important empirical research results on the issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Universities are commonly seen by policy makers as being key actors in the knowledge-based economy. In the United States, universities, but particularly research universities, have been the focus of many studies which have sought to document and explain the commercial impact of university-based research on regional economies. For example, studies have analyzed the extent and outcomes of academic entrepreneurship and of university-industry collaborations. The focus of this paper is to review this literature with a specific focus on contradictory and inconclusive results. Data for these studies are obtained from a number of sources such as self-administered surveys, patent office, the National Science Foundation and the Association of University Technology Managers. This paper reviews the literature and highlights the variety of conceptual frameworks, data, and methodology used. It has a specific focus on assessing impact over time as well the difficulty in generalizing the result obtained from one study to another context. In spite of these problems, the evidence from a broad range and increasing volume of literature on trends and characteristics of academic entrepreneurship and university-industry collaborations shows that universities indisputably play a major role in their regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]