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This paper applies optimum currency area (OCA) theory to Southeast Asia to assess the potential for a monetary union in that region. We construct a panel of 10 Southeast Asian countries over the period 1990–2018 and apply the dynamic OLS estimator to quantify the costs and benefits of a potential OCA. A possible monetary union in Southeast Asia is vulnerable to asymmetric shocks, although the degree of specialisation has decreased and the openness index increased. Estimates confirm that both OCA criteria favour an increase in the region's income and FDI inflows and a reduction of its unemployment rate. However, inadequate labour mobility and stagnating intra‐trade shares are major obstacles in this regard, but if addressed they could benefit economic development and GDP per capita in the ASEAN region. We conclude that Southeast Asia is far from being an optimum currency area, but if it were to form a common currency area, the loss of economic sovereignty and its costs would be more than offset by the resulting monetary efficiency gain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With a persistent global economic slump, governments encourage economic growth by expansionary fiscal policies through tax cuts. Total factor productivity (TFP) is an important determinant of corporate development and economic growth. Taking China's 2008 Corporate Income Tax Reform as a quasi‐natural experiment, this paper uses data from China's A‐share listed companies from 2003 to 2018 and difference‐in‐differences analyses to identify the impact of corporate income tax (CIT) rate changes on TFP. The findings indicate that reducing the CIT rate positively impacts corporate TFP through two available channels: corporate investment and human capital investment. Additionally, the effects of reducing the CIT rate on TFP are primarily significant in non‐state‐owned, smaller and more financing‐constrained enterprises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper optimises the definition and measurement method of export stability and analyses the impact of export structure on export stability. The main results show that (1) an increase in the export share appears to reduce the export stability of goods, by changing the importer's elasticity of import demand; (2) exporters can reduce the impact of export structure on the export stability of goods by increasing the technical complexity of export products, improving the trade freedom level and signing free trade agreements (FTA) with importers; (3) export share has a negative impact on the export stability of services; and (4) the development of intra‐industry trade (IIT) in services and the digitisation of services can reduce the impact of export structure on the export stability of services. The results can provide a reference for the management of export instability against the background of export specialisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trade in services has become the most dynamic segment of international trade. This paper examines the competitiveness of services exports in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) for the period 2005–2019 using revealed comparative advantage approach. The analysis shows that although SSA has a comparative advantage in traditional services, that is travel and transport, it has remained less competitive compared to other regions globally, and its share of world services exports is negligible. Moreover, SSA has not developed competitiveness in modern commercial services and, hence, continue to perform poorly. The results suggest only Nigeria and Kenya have so far developed comparative advantage in financial services. SSA's dismal performance of services exports can be attributed to various factors such as technological and infrastructure constraints, protectionist and regulatory barriers. There is need to rethink strategies of revamping and diversifying services esports to spur Africa's trade and economic transformation. These include leveraging the opportunities availed by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Unexploited opportunities include Africa's rich cultural diversity, recreation, business and conferencing services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emergence of a mass market for electric vehicles (EVs) offers development opportunities for countries that have abundant resources of cobalt, nickel, lithium, copper, aluminium and manganese. Not surprisingly, developing countries have proposed ambitious plans to expand production of these raw materials. However, an observation from the resource curse literature is that strong institutions are required if they are to mitigate the risk of poorly directed, often excessively procyclical, investment, not least because of the complexity, opacity and price volatility of many raw materials utilised by global EV value chains. This paper examines the outlook for EV demand and associated raw material usage paying attention to the drivers and sensitivities required to assess and track future market transformations. These end use shifts are then placed in the context of the broader supply chain adjustments and trends shaping the demand. For resource exporters, adapting to structural change will require fiscal, regulatory, environmental and institution reforms designed to capture shifting patterns of resource wealth in a way which takes appropriate account of comparative advantages in specific value chains and mitigates adverse environmental and social consequences from their extraction and processing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The low‐carbon transition involves achieving the coordinated development between economic development and carbon reduction. This paper utilises an integrated decomposition and econometric framework to reveal the influence mechanism and convergence evolution of carbon emission intensity (CEI) across 29 OECD countries in the period 1992–2018. The country‐level low‐carbon transition efforts are then investigated. The results imply that: (1) The reduction in CEI is primarily attributed to the changes in economic development and energy intensity. The carbon emission coefficient effect also negatively influences CEI. The impact of energy consumption per capita, however, is negligible. (2) According to econometric analysis, energy intensity, energy mix, carbon emissions per capita and energy use per capita have positive impacts on CEI. Specially, GDP per capita shows an inverted U‐shaped curve relationship with CEI. (3) There is evidence of convergence in CEI across developed countries. Energy intensity plays a crucial role in accelerating the CEI convergence process, implying a half‐life of 3 years. (4) Fifteen European countries have made strong low‐carbon transition efforts among all countries. Denmark has made the largest efforts, South Korea the least. This study provides important implications for low‐carbon economy transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been 30 years since Central Asian '‐stan' countries, namely, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, declared their independence in 1991. The Republics have chosen various transition paths from centrally planned to the market‐based economic system. The research found that Central Asian leaders' protectionist policy, on top of the landlocked geographical environment, made trade costly, rendering these countries further isolated. Consequently, economic development slows down, unemployment increases and poverty rate extremes. Eventually, the isolated region (relatively, excluding Kazakhstan) is imprisoned in a low‐income trap and framed into a vicious circle. As a solution for tackling high‐trade costs in the region, this paper utilises the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Computational General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling to simulate the impacts of implementing policy‐targeted scenarios. The study presents that tariff reduction/elimination and trade facilitation policies could flourish the region by bringing significant economic welfare and robust GDP growth. The trade facilitation scenarios impact the region's economy much more positively than do tariff liberalisation scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the potential for South Africa to become an engine for intra‐regional trade and industrial development in Southern Africa. It focuses on new backward linkages that can be created from South African exports of final products to producers of intermediate inputs in other Southern African countries. We do so by identifying South Africa's lead products, where it has formed its own GVCs, and, in turn, earmarking intermediate inputs used in the production of these lead products. Using Revealed Comparative Advantage and Unit Cost analysis, we identify Southern African countries that could supply the identified imported intermediate inputs more competitively than South Africa's existing partners and kickstart regional integration. We explore issues around the nature of linkages, supplier capabilities and industrial policies in the region, with special reference to the identified product value chains. Focusing on the agricultural sector—a key regional priority with immense potential for industrial growth and large‐scale employment—we also identify existing agricultural lead products in South Africa, and the 'new markets' to which South Africa can export. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land finance has become one of the important major sources of fiscal revenue for Chinese local governments. The spatial allocation of land use constitutes a land‐leasing policy operation of local officials, contributing to local economic development and fluctuation. Applying data from 283 prefectural units from 2003 to 2012, this paper explores the existence of land finance cycles, focussing on the changes of the amount (as in 'area') of land‐leasing by negotiation or by auction. The empirical results suggest that land finance cycles synchronise with the PCCP (Provincial Congress of the Communist Party) cycles, in which a prefectural leader decreases the amount of land leased through negotiation and increases that of land leased through auction prior to the year of the PCCP. The findings of empirical results are consistent with the prediction of our theoretical model. Additionally, due to the existence of high uncertainty of prefectural leaders' tenure and political turnover, the effect of prefectural leaders' tenure on land finance cycles is more apparent in the early years of their tenure. The results indicate that Chinese leaders' fiscal strategies are likely to be driven by career concerns for the purpose of maximising a measured economic performance and fiscal rents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effect on economic development of whether a country's policymakers adopt a long‐term vision. We use a novel institutional variable that indicates whether policymakers have a long‐term strategic vision. However, the difficulty in estimating a causal effect is that long‐term vision is endogenous to economic development. Therefore, we use the future‐time reference language variables introduced in American Economic Review, 103, 690; 2013 as instrumental variables for long‐term vision. To account for endogeneity, the paper conducts two‐stage least‐squares estimations where the language instruments are used in the first stage to find an exogenous source of variation in long‐term vision. The results show that long‐term vision, instrumented by future‐time reference, explains cross‐country variations in economic development. These results are robust even after the inclusion of control variables and after the exclusion of outliers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Services constitute a significant part of GDP and overall trade in modern economies, but little is known about the magnitude of its obstacles. Great effort has been made to establish measures of services trade frictions on the part of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the World Bank. A customary way of using these measures is to employ them in log‐linear regressions to gauge their effect on services trade flows. This may be problematic to the extent that these measures do not capture ad valorem (tariff type price increasing) trade costs. Hence, it is natural to believe that available services trade cost measures may have a nonlinear impact on services trade flows. The present paper documents that this is the case, using nonparametric estimates to quantify the direct impact of important trade cost measures captured by the Services Trade Restrictiveness Index of the OECD on cross‐border services transaction costs and trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies how catch‐up industrial policies in China affect economic development in a two‐sector neoclassical growth model. To fulfil their aspirations of catching up with the output of the capital‐intensive sector of developed countries, Chinese political leaders adopted industrial policies that subsidise this target sector at the expense of other sectors from 1952 until the economic reform in 1978. The static effect of this industrial policy distorts the allocation of resources across sectors and lowers the aggregate TFP. The dynamic effect discourages the accumulation of capital. We show that although the output of the capital‐intensive sector boosts initially, it will be lower than its first‐best counterpart in the long run if catch‐up aspirations are too strong. Our theoretical predictions are consistent with the experience of the Chinese economy from 1952 to 1978. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Institutional quality is often emphasised as an engine of economic development in developing countries. However, most of the literature assumes that institutions are exogenous. In this paper, we adopt the opposite view, and study the way the design of the monetary regime, and specifically the adoption of an inflation targeting regime, can impact the quality of institutions. Using the propensity scores matching method, which allows controlling for self‐selection in policy adoption, along with a wide set of robustness checks, including GMM‐based estimations and controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, we find that the adoption of inflation targeting significantly improves the quality of institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper reflects on the career contributions of Professor Chris Milner to the literature on international trade and economic development. As such, it not only provides an overview of a life's work, but also sets the context for the nine papers which follow. All of these were specially written for this Special Issue of The World Economy, and all relate to different areas that Professor Milner worked in. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interest group theory of financial development predicts that the incumbents' opposition to financial development will be weaker when an economy is open to both trade and capital flows. Based on regressions of financial development on trade and financial openness, existing studies only provide indirect tests of the hypothesis and deliver mixed findings. This paper proposes models for direct tests of interest group theory for China. Using Chinese cross‐province data, we define and measure interest groups based on the close tie between state‐owned enterprises and local government in China. The empirical results show that the opposition from interest groups to financial development cannot be weakened in provinces with high trade or financial openness alone. However, the opposition is indeed weakened in provinces with high levels of both trade and financial openness. These results provide robust support for interest group theory in accounting for cross‐province differences and time‐series variation in financial development in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The supply chain disruption drives the firms to source the same inputs from multiple suppliers in low‐cost countries. However, the imposition of economic sanctions may prevent firms from enjoying the diversification benefits of global sourcing complexity. Using data for more than 127 countries from 1997 to 2014, we uncover the effects of economic sanctions on the global sourcing complexity. After extensive robustness checks, our main findings reveal that economic sanction hampers global sourcing complexity. These effects are conditional on the level of economic development and the occurrence of financial crises in a particular country. Our results are robust for various forms of economic sanction, alternative estimators and when controlling endogeneity problems. Our findings suggest important foreign policy and managerial implications for the countries and firms in response to economic sanctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article analyzes the benefit of using a gross domestic product (GDP)-linked sovereign paper or sukuk in stabilizing economic growth of developing Islamic countries through risk sharing macro instruments from Islamic finance. Topics discussed are impact of debt servicing on real GDP per capita for lower income countries, and the Sharpe ratio for all the countries based on investor analysis of returns in a risk-adjusted framework.

In a context of increased foreign exchange reserves holding from emerging and developing countries, this paper investigates the diminishing return of reserves holding assumption over the most severe phase of the global financial crisis (2008Q1–2010Q4). Relying on a Panel Smooth Transition Regression model, we highlight the differential effect of the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves for a set of financial vulnerabilities variables. In a specific manner, although reserves accumulation is effective above a critical threshold to cope with vulnerabilities related to the financial channel, we show that it becomes less effective beyond a certain threshold for domestic bank vulnerabilities. Our results are robust to alternative specifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates the impact of Asia's demand rebalancing and supply‐side productivity changes on long‐term economic growth in Asia and worldwide. Results from a panel vector autoregression model show that a productivity–neutral demand‐rebalancing shock has no permanent effect on Asian output, whereas labour productivity shocks have significant, positive and permanent effects. Simulations using a global intertemporal multisector general equilibrium model suggest that labour productivity shocks increase the foreign GDP over time, but rebalancing shocks have a negative international spillover effect. In addition, labour productivity shocks help in rebalancing. Structural reforms promoting labour productivity growth along with rebalancing policies across Asia can achieve higher economic growth worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: As the formal process of Brexit has already started, there is much uncertainty about Brexit's impacts on Britain's social, political and economic future. This paper examines the economic impact. After briefly discussing some significant EU treaties that serve as the background materials, it presents the key arguments advocated by the leave and remain camps. The economic impact depends critically on the negotiation outcomes. Aside from the debate on the divorce costs, there are numerous issues that must be negotiated, such as immigration, trade in goods, services, agriculture, fisheries and financial regulations. We discuss various scenarios of possible new trade regimes, resulting in different impacts on the UK economy. With each side having its bargaining chips to play, the trade‐offs between “give and take” in the negotiation game are analysed. Considering various strategic options, this paper urges rationality and cooperation, especially weighing both sides’ entwined economic interests, in addition to their mutual security, defence, environmental and world concerns. The potential gains and losses in the event where the UK contemplates new trade arrangements with the non‐EU countries are analysed in the Appendix. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper addresses two research issues to which Chris Milner has contributed: the role of trade policy in economic development, and the particular development case of Mauritius. On the first issue, the focus is on understanding why so few low‐income countries, especially in Africa, have achieved a sustained level of export diversification. The paper argues that the standard “Washington Consensus” advice on trade policy placed too much emphasis on liberalisation alone and neglected the important role of government policy, in particular the potential to use targeted input subsidies to support the development of export sectors. Mauritius is then discussed as an example of relatively successful subsidy policies that enabled diversification of exports: indeed the only African country to achieve this in a sustained manner. Subsidies are not advocated as a panacea, and it is recognised that they are not always feasible or effective, but they can be part of an export diversification strategy that supports economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been much debate on how to design employment protection regulations that balance the need to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) on the one hand and to protect workers' rights on the other hand. This study explores this 'dilemma', using a multi‐country dataset from 2003 to 2015 and treating hiring and firing regulation (HFR) and the other explanatory variables as endogenous. The findings indicate that flexible HFR is essential for FDI promotion in the early stages of economic development of a country, but the impact of labour market flexibility on FDI gradually decreases and eventually turns statistically insignificant with economic advancement. In other words, a flexible HFRs are more important for developing countries, but such flexibility does not have to be sustained in a 'race to the bottom' manner: once a country reaches higher income levels, it has more room to focus on labour standards to protect workers without compromising on the attractiveness of the country for FDI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The agri‐food trade has expanded considerably over decades, with a remarkable increase in the market share of developing countries. The upward trend in trade flows has been parallel to the proliferation of non‐tariff measures, particularly of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures in the agri‐food sector. SPS measures may have a dual impact on trade, that is. standards as catalysts versus standards as barriers, and the net effect is likely to depend on the level of economic development of countries involved. We investigate whether the trade effects of SPS measures are correlated with the economic development of trading partners. In particular, we disentangle the trade effects of SPS measures implemented by developed and developing countries and look at differential impacts due to a mismatch in the economic development of trading partners. Using a structural gravity approach on bilateral trade and regulation data, we conclude that SPS measures are catalysts for developing importers, whereas no evidence is found for developed importers. We also find a pro‐trade effect of SPS measures when traders have different levels of economic development. Our findings have important policy implications: sharing SPS measures is strategic for economies characterised by different abilities to alter trade terms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Policy reforms targeting the services sectors are a neglected dimension of the process of structural transformation and economic development. The effects of such reforms on employment across industries as a function of their use of services as intermediate inputs are theoretically ambiguous and remain largely understudied. This paper uses sector‐level data for 24 transition economies for the 1990–2012 period to assess the impacts of services policy reforms on downstream manufacturing employment. We find a negative effect of services reforms on manufacturing sector employment. This is mostly associated with the process of transition to a market‐based economy. Controlling for transition‐specific dynamics, the data suggest a neutral effect of progress towards adopting “best practice” policies for upstream services on employment in downstream manufacturing. Furthermore, in line with the extant literature, we confirm that services policy reforms enhance productivity of downstream manufacturing industries. Finally, we find that the negative effects on downstream employment are mitigated in countries with better economic governance and human capital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper we introduce a model of a society with two distinct linguistic groups, each consisting of heterogeneous individuals speaking their native language. There is also a world language so that every individual is faced with four learning choices: to study the other local language only, to study the world language only, to study both, and to refrain from studying either language. We examine the Nash equilibiria of that game determined by communicative benefits (Selten & Pool), and address inefficiency of the equilibrium. We then show that government subsidies for language learning could serve as welfare‐enhancing policies. Finally, we analyze the three‐language policy, certain variants of which have been adopted in multilingual countries or regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Empirical results on the links between trade openness and economic growth often suggest that, in the long run, more outward‐oriented countries register better economic growth. However, a similar level of trade openness can hide different types of trade structures. The aim of this paper was to enrich the way of measuring trade openness taking into account two different dimensions of countries’ integration in world trade: export quality and export variety. Based on the estimation of an endogenous growth model on a panel of 169 countries between 1988 and 2014 using a generalised method of moments estimator, our results confirm that countries exporting higher quality products and new varieties grow more rapidly. More importantly, we find a non‐linear pattern between the export ratio and the quality of the export basket, suggesting that openness to trade may impact growth negatively for countries which are specialised in low‐quality products. A non‐linear relationship between export variety, the export ratio and growth is also found, suggesting that countries increasing their exports will grow more rapidly after reaching a certain degree of the extensive margin of exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the trade policies and practices of Singapore based on the latest WTO trade policy review. Though Singapore's trade policies have been effective and contributing to its remarkable economic performance, it also faces problems and new challenges in the modern globalisation era. Reviewing Singapore's policies also provides guidance for other small open economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of "One Belt & One Road" as an exogenous policy shock on the utilisation of foreign capital in China in the short term. Based on provincial panel data for the years 2003–15, the empirical study is conducted with difference‐in‐differences design. The first difference is whether a province is an OBOR province, and the second is whether "One Belt & One Road" initiative has been proposed. The empirical results suggest the utilisation of foreign capital in OBOR provinces has decreased significantly compared to non‐OBOR provinces after the initiative has been proposed. The study has further shown that the OBOR construction not only means factor movements and projects but also stands for policy shock. Its impact on utilisation of foreign capital cannot be simply captured by the commonly quantifiable "going global" indicators, namely outward direct investment, overseas contracted projects or overseas labour services. The negative impact of the initiative on foreign capital utilisation is strongly reflected in the OBOR provinces with low levels of economic development, heavy fiscal burdens and high proportions of state‐owned economy. In the short term, the negative impact of the initiative on foreign capital utilisation may be due to its role in resource competition and signal delivering. The former means that the OBOR initiative may induce resource competition between "going global" and "bringing in," and the latter suggests that this initiative is likely to be regarded as a "signal" by foreign investors that "going global," not "bringing in," has become the priority of the government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how technical barriers to trade (TBTs) affect firm exports. The implementation of the "child‐resistance" decision (CR decision) in the EU offers an ideal quasi‐natural experiment to identify the causal effect of TBTs on firm performance. Using data on Chinese firms that exported cigarette lighters between 2004 and 2010, we show that firms exporting to the EU not only adjust their product quality to meet the requirements in the CR decision, but also upgrade their product quality in other dimensions. However, both the export value and export volume to the EU decline. At the same time, less productive exporters are forced to exit from the EU market. Lastly, heterogeneous effects of the CR decision are documented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a conceptual and empirical framework for evaluating the effect of capital controls on long‐term economic growth. In a small open economy which relies on successful investment projects to provide capital goods, taking out short‐term loans has two contradictory impacts: (i) it reduces the interest costs of financing investment projects; and (ii) it also leads to larger asset losses in the scenario of short‐term debt run. In this work, we hypothesise that private financing decisions made by domestic investors are distorted towards excessive risk‐taking, leading to ineffective capital formation. Thus, capital control policies, particularly regulations on short‐term loans, can be socially beneficial as they alter the debt composition, promote capital formation and achieve a higher output level. Using a panel data set covering 77 countries from 1995 to 2009, we employ a system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator to sequentially test three hypotheses and find strong empirical evidence that supports our theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing accurately global economic conditions is a great challenge for economists. The International Monetary Fund proposes within its periodic World Economic Outlook report a measure of the global GDP annual growth, that is generally considered as the benchmark nowcast by macroeconomists. In this paper, we put forward an alternative approach to provide monthly nowcasts of the annual global growth rate. Our approach builds on a Factor‐Augmented MIxed DAta Sampling (FA‐MIDAS) model that enables: (i) to account for a large monthly database including various countries and sectors of the global economy and (ii) to nowcast a low‐frequency macroeconomic variable using higher frequency information. Pseudo‐real‐time results over the period 2010–16 show that this approach provides reliable and timely nowcasts of the world GDP annual growth on a monthly basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the light of the initiative of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) to introduce a common currency by 2020, this paper investigates the intricacies of the business cycles synchronicity among the six countries. Given: (i) the rising importance of trade and cooperation with China; (ii) the consideration of the Euro as a potential anchor currency and a vehicle for trade with the Eurozone; and (iii) the importance of Nigeria as the largest country of the group and the main supplier of oil, we investigate the relative importance of these three major players in having their business cycles linked with the group. In addition, we investigate the underlying determinants of the business cycles synchronicity among the WAMZ countries on a pairwise basis. Results show a clear dominance of China's business cycle synchronicity with the WAMZ over Europe's and Nigeria's. Trade integration emerges as the key underlying factor of the common cycle observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a distinguished career spanning more than four decades, Jagdish Bhagwati has made numerous contributions to both trade theory and trade policy analysis. The current paper focuses on Bhagwati's major contribution to the ongoing debate surrounding the influence of trade liberalisation upon economic development and its potential to alleviate poverty in the world's poorest economies. In order to highlight Bhagwati's contributions in these fields we focus on the arguments developed in two of his numerous landmark publications; first his seminal 1964 paper on the Pure Theory of International Trade and, second, his 2004 book entitled In Defense of Globalization. Although separated in time by some four decades we argue that these two publications, despite their very different characters, each demonstrate beyond doubt the significance of Bhagwati's work in improving our understanding of the true nature of international trade and its potential to address questions of global poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper takes as its point of departure the unique position recently adopted by Swedish policymakers emphasising migration as a tool to increase trade. We attempt to empirically scrutinise this position. Our results demonstrate that migrants stimulate exports, especially along the extensive product margin of trade and for differentiated products, but have no significant impact on imports. This finding suggests that for small open economies where numerous immigrants are refugees, the strategy of using migration to facilitate trade may only be effective with respect to exports. This paper also contributes to the literature on trade and migration by exploiting data on gender and age, which allow us to draw inferences on the underlying impact channels. We adopt an instrumental variable approach to address the endogeneity issue due to potential reverse causality. The pattern of results is consistent with the hypothesis that migration primarily reduces fixed trade costs resulting from information and trust friction across migrant host and source countries. Importantly, the results imply that policymakers may be able to promote trade by improving immigrants’ labour market integration instead of simply being restricted to promoting more liberal immigration policies, which is generally more controversial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper identifies and discusses the five main areas of environmental management public policy that pose serious challenges to Asian governments. The first is the emerging issue of siting environmentally unfriendly facilities that may be necessary for growth, but with the social and environmental costs borne primarily by local host residents and neighbourhood municipalities, more commonly known as the not-in-my-backyard syndrome. The second issue is the critical need for pricing of non-market environmental goods. Third is the issue of waste generation. The fourth challenge is that of transboundary pollution, which has become increasingly important with regard to its effects on health and foreign relations. Lastly, the paper discusses global warming and climate change. Discussions on cost-benefit analysis and the more novel method of establishing damage schedules are also presented. This is particularly relevant to fundamental differences between developed and less developed countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Participation in global value chains (GVCs) has become a central topic in trade and development policy. It has opened new ways to achieve industrial upgrading. However, some theoretical models suggest that not all countries will upgrade through participation in GVCs. Using panel data from the World Input‐Output Database, we examine the effects of backward and forward GVC participation on three dimensions of industrial upgrading (process, product and skill upgrading). We find that backward GVC participation provides more upgrading opportunities for developing countries as it enables a less developed country to import sophisticated inputs. This activates learning through embodied knowledge. In contrast, forward participation has higher level of upgrading effect on developed countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper unites explanations about the growth effects from various trade characteristics, proposing the market form into which a country exports as the main driver. Exporting into concentrated world markets (oligopolies or monopolies) leads to higher profit margins, similar to fundamental microeconomic logic. The paper develops an index measuring the average market form of a country's exports. This index produces a positive and statistically significant coefficient in conventional growth regressions. A one standard deviation increase is suggested to raise growth by 0.885 percentage points. This result holds for numerous extensions and seems particularly important for developing economics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses Europe's growth problem. Recovery from the recent global financial crisis and 'great recession' has been slower than after previous recessions in most advanced countries and areas, especially Europe. But the European growth problem is structural in character and it started much earlier. This paper analyses the structural causes of the European growth problem, evaluates the policies that Europe adopted to overcome it, and concludes that even with the appropriate policies, the prospects for accelerating growth in Europe will be difficult, especially in the context of Brexit and the slowdown of world growth in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

'Informality' is a term used to describe the collection of firms, workers and activities that operate outside the legal and regulatory systems. It is widespread in the majority of developing countries - in a typical developing economy, the informal sector produces about 35 per cent of GDP and employs 70 per cent of the labour force. This paper studies informality in the context of economic development by presenting a model and projections that link informality, regulations, migration and economic growth. This analytical framework highlights the trade-offs between formality and informality, the relationship between the different types of informality, and the connection between them and the forces of labour, capital and productivity growth. The paper models the behaviour of the informal sector based on the following fundamental asymmetry: formal firms confront higher labour costs, while informal firms face higher capital costs and lower productivity. Using mandated minimum wages as the policy-induced distortion, the model first studies the static allocation of formal and informal capital and labour in a modern economy. Second, it opens the possibility of labour migration from a rudimentary economy with ample supply of labour (e.g. rural areas or less advanced neighbouring countries). Third, the model analyses the dynamic behaviour of the formal and informal sectors, considering how they affect and are affected by economic growth and labour migration. Then, the paper presents projections for the size of labour informality, in the modern and rudimentary economies, in the next two decades for a large group of countries representing all regions of the world. The projections are based on the calibration and simulation of the model and serve to discuss its usefulness and limitations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper reviews the World Trade Organization's analysis of developments in China's trade policy during 2012-14. The review overlaps with the continuing Great Recession and with China's determination to foster a sustainable rate of economic growth. Developments in the country's trade policy include the launching of the Shanghai pilot free trade zone. China faces a series of trade policy-related challenges including the complex process necessary to internationalise the renminbi. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses factors that can facilitate property rights institutions reform in developing countries ( DC). Inspired by the works of North and Weingast ( Journal of Economic History, 49, 1989, 803) and Acemoglu et al. ( American Economic Review, 95, 2005a, 546; 2008) relating to the process of institutional reforms in England during the seventeenth century, I assume that FDI inflows could contribute to property rights reform in DC that are initially endowed with a minimum of effective institutions of constraints on the executive (i.e. effective institutions of checks and balances). Using five-year panel data over the period 1970-2005 with a sample of 80 DC, and after correcting for endogeneity, I find that conditioned on the initial level of constraints on the executive, the effect of FDI inflows on the probability of reforming property rights is positive and significant. The minimum level of constraints on the executive necessary for the catalytic role of FDI inflows in reforming property rights institutions is 3.6. Only 20 out of the 80 DC in the sample have this minimum level of constraints on the executive. Among the 20 countries five are in sub- Saharan Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In a context of rising protectionist rhetoric, this paper looks at the potential impact of trade wars initiated by a change in US trade policies. We use a static multicountry, multisector general equilibrium model to evaluate six modalities of three potential trade wars—for a total of 18 scenarios—between the USA and China, between the USA and Mexico, and a combination of the two previous conflicts. In each case, we evaluate various forms of trade retaliation by the US partner(s): the same level of import duty as the one imposed by the USA, an import duty that minimises welfare loss, a duty that minimises terms‐of‐trade deterioration, a duty that generates the same amount of collected revenue, and finally a Nash equilibrium. We conclude that there is no scenario in which the US government augments its domestic welfare or GDP. There may be sectoral gains in value added in the USA, but they are small and to the detriment of other sectors. While losses for China are relatively small, potential losses for the Mexican economy are significant. There are also free riders of these trade wars. Finally, the way in which trade retaliations are designed matters greatly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the relationship between mean income and the income of the rich. Our methodology closely follows that of Dollar and Kraay ( Journal of Economic Growth, 2002, 7, 195), but instead of looking at the bottom of the distribution, we focus on the top. We use panel data from the World Top Incomes database, which collects top income data from several countries using tax returns as the raw source. We define the 'rich' as earners in the top 10%, 1%, 0.1% and 0.01% of the income distribution. Using data since 1980, we find that economic growth is good for the rich in the sense that the mean income of the top decile of the distribution grows in the same proportion as that of the whole population. However, we also find that the income of earners in the top percentile of the distribution and above grows faster than average income: therefore, economic growth is really good for the really rich. We also find that during economic downturns the average income of top earners responds proportionally less to changes in mean income than during economic expansions. Our results are consistent with the increase in inequality that has been recently observed at the top part of the distribution in many countries, and they are robust to different specifications, country samples and time observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper has evaluated the WTO trade policy review, and added more information and recent data to examine more closely China's economy and trade. Major trade policies during 2014-16 were summarised as the Belt and Road Initiative, policies facilitating trade and new adjustments to support and promote cross-border e-commence. After evaluating data on China's trade and economic performance, it discussed three challenges the Chinese government needs to deal with in the near future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the effect of education export on economic growth and development, using Australia as a case study since it is one of the top destinations for international students. International education has played a vital role in Australia's economy over the last three decades, becoming the third‐largest export of Australia after iron ore and coal and earning AU$40.3 billion in 2019. The sector supports about 250,000 jobs and provides an important source of skilled migrants for Australia. This study employs the cointegration and error correction model and quarterly data from 1974 to 2019 to analyse the effect of internationalisation of education on the Australian economy. The results suggest a long‐run positive relationship and a short‐run dynamic effect of international education on the economic growth and employment of Australia. The findings of this study have far‐reaching implications for other education‐exporting countries. Policy recommendations suggest taking proactive, flexible and innovative approaches to attract international students, and diversifying the market can support growth of the sector and enhance the economy‐wide spillover effects. The study further proposes sound and timely policies to promote the internationalisation of education to augment not only economic growth but also long‐run development for both education‐exporting and education‐receiving countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical studies emphasise that higher financial development (FD) amplifies the output cost of banking crises. However, no study has so far investigated the effect of FD on another key dimension of banking crises, namely their duration. Using a large sample of banking crises over the 1977–2014 period, we find that higher FD is associated with a significant increase in the duration of banking crises (DBC). This result is robust to a broad range of alternative specifications and is unaffected by unobserved heterogeneity or endogeneity. Finally, we show that the effect of FD on DBC is subject to nonlinearities and varies across decades and with the level of economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small Island Developing States generally adopt diversification as their primary development strategy, often with little success. Nevertheless, there is no empirical study specifically focusing on the pattern of diversification of these countries in relation to their development. The objective of this paper was to study the export diversification pattern by the intensive (a more equally spread export basket) and extensive (an increase in new export lines) product margin of 21 Caribbean countries in relation to their level of development using panel data. The results show that despite their limited ability to diversify, Caribbean countries, as has been found for other parts of the world, first diversify and subsequently respecialise though at a substantially lower level of income than other countries and that the intensive margin plays a greater role in this process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The central question of this paper is to test whether multinational firms (MNFs) are more likely to exit the local market than domestic firms. Using firm-level data for Belgium, we estimate a random effects probit model taking into account the endogeneity of firm size, total factor productivity (TFP) and sunk costs in firm exit. Our results highlight two features of the 'footloose' nature of MNFs. First, controlling for firm and sector characteristics, the exit probability of MNFs is larger than that of domestic firms. Second, MNFs have a lower sensitivity to TFP and size than do domestic firms. This means that an improvement in economic performance on the local market will not prevent a multinational from closing its local plant as much as it would for a domestic firm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the drivers of the volatility of international trade. It decomposes trade growth into six components that have gained attention in the literature and studies their contribution to overall volatility. It yields three main findings. First, trade volatility in the 1990–2015 period is mostly explained by a common factor, changes in the gravity‐related characteristics of a country's trading partners and country‐specific factors. Product composition and the identity of trading partners appear to be less important in explaining volatility. Second, the pre‐2009 decline in volatility and the post‐2009 increase in volatility appear to be driven by different factors. The former is mostly explained by a decline in the variance of country‐specific factors; the latter appears to be driven by an increase in the volatility of common factors. Third, diversification is a likely force behind the steady decline in the volatility stemming from country‐specific factors, especially in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly, their performance deteriorated in recent years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of business cycles is closely linked to the Chinese economy. During the crisis, the Chinese fiscal stimulus prevented an abrupt decline in GDP growth not only in that country, but also in resource‐rich economies. Due to lower commodity demand, the environment became more challenging for many emerging markets in recent years. This view is supported by Bayesian structural VARs specified for the individual BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries. The results reveal a strong impact of the international economy on GDP growth. However, in contrast to the other countries, China plays a crucial role in determining global trade and oil prices. Therefore, the Chinese economy exerts significant spillovers to the other countries under analysis. The change in the Chinese growth strategy puts additional reform pressure especially in countries with abundant natural resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]