1. A preoperative nomogram to predict the risk of synchronous distant metastases at diagnosis of primary breast cancer.
- Author
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Boutros, C, Mazouni, C, Lerebours, F, Stevens, D, Lei, X, Gonzalez-Angulo, A M, and Delaloge, S
- Subjects
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BREAST cancer diagnosis , *BREAST cancer risk factors , *BREAST cancer treatment , *MEDICAL databases , *RECEIVER operating characteristic curves , *NOMOGRAPHY (Mathematics) , *COHORT analysis - Abstract
Background:The detection of synchronous metastases at primary diagnosis of breast cancer (BC) affects its initial management. A risk calculator that incorporates many factors to evaluate an individual's risk of harbouring synchronous metastases would be useful to adapt cancer management.Patients and Methods:Patients with primary diagnosis of BC were identified from three institutional databases sharing homogeneous work-up recommendations. A risk score for synchronous metastases was estimated and a nomogram was constructed using the first database. Its performance was assessed by receiver characteristic (ROC) analysis. The nomogram was externally validated in the two independent cohorts.Results:A preoperative nomogram based on the clinical tumour size (P<0.001), clinical nodal status (P<0.001), oestrogen (P=0.17) and progesterone receptors (P=0.04) was developed. The nomogram accuracy was 87.3% (95% confidence interval (CI), 84.45-90.2%). Overall, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 86.1% for the validation set from the Institut Curie-René Huguenin, and 63.8% for the MD Anderson validation set. The negative predictive value (NPV) was high in the three cohorts (97-99%).Conclusions:We developed and validated a strong metastasis risk calculator that can evaluate with high accuracy an individual's risk of harbouring synchronous metastases at diagnosis of primary BC.Condensed abstract:A nomogram to predict synchronous metastases at diagnosis of breast cancer was developed and externally validated. This tool allows avoiding unnecessary expensive work-up. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2015
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