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This paper explores the impact of the political hierarchies of cities in China from different perspectives. First, we examine the economic disparities between prefectural cities and municipalities. Furthermore, this paper draws upon a quasi‐ experiment to analyze the impact of upgrading Chongqing to a municipality in 1997 using the synthetic control method. The city‐upgrading policy significantly increased Chongqing's gross domestic product (GDP) in the following 4 years. Finally, we find that the policy increased GDP in treated cities within 1200 km of Chongqing by about 10%–13% relative to the control cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the long‐term relationship between regional inequality and economic development. Our data set includes information on national and regional per capita GDP for four countries: France, Italy, Portugal and Spain, compiled on a decadal basis for the period 1860–2010. Using parametric and semiparametric regressions, our results confirm the rise and fall of regional inequalities over time although in recent decades they are on the rise again. Finally, we identify structural change as being a significant transmission mechanism of the inverted‐U relationship. The arrival of technological shocks, beginning during the onset of industrialization, and the transition from agrarian to industrial economies, would explain this result. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the differential impact of several territorial determinants of the economic performance of Italian provinces (NUTS 3 level). as measured by per capita GDP, export and employment growth from 1999 to 2014. It covers both the pre‐crisis and the crisis period and stresses the role of geographical proximity in shaping local performance over a wide set of explanatory variables. In order to do so, we employ, firstly, a spatial Durbin model which enables us to discriminate between direct and indirect effects and to highlight the possible contagion or crowding‐out spatial effects for each territorial dimension affecting growth. Then, we extend the analysis by allowing for the possibility of two regimes (pre‐crisis and post‐crisis). The performance of the provinces before and during the crisis relates to specific territorial components and geographic proximity appears to influence differently the results and their interpretation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the importance of good institutions in harnessing the growth effects of the bulging economically active population in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). The paper utilizes a panel dataset comprising 39 countries over the period 2002–13. Based on the system generalized method of moments estimator, this paper finds that an increase in the relative size of the working‐age population has no direct significant impact on growth, except through the presence of strong and high‐quality institutions. The paper also finds that control of corruption, rule of law and political stability are the specific aspects of institutions that matter the most in reaping the dividend. These results do not only highlight the primacy of strong institutions but also shed light on the key institutional pillars that need to be strengthened to rake in the positive effects of an increasing working age population on economic growth in SSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a model in which greater inequality reduces growth in economies with low levels of financial development but that this effect is attenuated in economies with more developed systems. The model also predicts that individuals in economies with developed financial markets have a higher tolerance to inequality. Using a panel dataset that covers a large number of countries, this paper shows empirical evidence that is consistent with the main predictions of the model. Overall, this paper's major findings highlight that some of the pernicious effects of inequality can be attenuated by improving access to credit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Using panel data on 47 African countries from 1980–2013, this paper investigates the effects of aid on Africa's economic growth from the perspective of political stability. We find that international aid can promote economic growth in Africa, but the effectiveness of aid depends on countries’ political stability. Further, the intensity of aid affects its effectiveness. When the aid–GDP ratio is between 0 and 69 per cent, aid can promote economic growth in recipient countries, and when this ratio is 27 per cent, the marginal impact of aid on economic growth is maximized. The findings of this paper suggest that providers of aid should avoid providing a substantial amount of aid to countries at risk of political unrest, and they must determine the optimal scale of aid based on the economic development of recipient countries in order to enable aid to generate better results. Recipient countries should maintain social and political stability and ensure that they do not develop an excessive dependence on aid so that they can achieve the self‐sustainable development of their own economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the economic impact of a university in a country characterised by the scarcity of significant data and quantitative information. It uses an input–output model that permits the use of gross domestic product (GDP) deflators to portray the economy of years following a year for which a complete data set input is possible. Using commonly available administrative data, the model not only allows for the calculation of monetary multipliers but also employment multipliers that play a major role in the educational sector. The study highlights the role of Higher Education in promoting economic development, even under difficult political, economic and security conditions, where lack of stability is the norm and aims to demonstrate that not only well‐known historically grounded universities have significant economic impact but also smaller emerging universities play an important role in the development of their national economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last ten years Turkey has gone through two different types of crises, namely the global economic crisis of 2008–2009 and the (geo)political crisis after 2015. This paper analyses the resilience of the economy of the tourism city of Antalya to both crises by focusing on the development of GDP of its inbound tourism countries and the births and deaths of both tourism and non‐tourism firms. The impact of the global economic crisis was moderate. The (geo)political crisis of 2016, by contrast, had a strong impact on Antalya's economy. The city's tourism arrivals strongly decreased, new firm formation stagnated, although the death rate of firms did not increase, and the sectoral diversification of new firms declined. Antalya conforms more to the engineering type of resilience to both crises than to the adaptive one which requires ability/willingness to shift into new sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the seminal paper by Rajan and Zingales in 2003, a plethora of studies have been motivated to establish whether the simultaneous opening of trade and capital borders leads to financial sector development. We test whether the simultaneous openness hypothesis is valid for Nigeria, with a focus on the banking sector and stock market. Using annual data from 1990 to 2015 and an instrumental variable regression estimation technique, we show that the simultaneous increase of trade and financial openness limits banking sector and stock market development. Thus, there is no empirical evidence to validate the simultaneous openness hypothesis in Nigeria. It also shows that trade openness is more beneficial for banking sector and stock market development in Nigeria than financial openness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical studies on international trade highlight the role of innovation on international exchange but do not capture the effect of technological innovation when unobservable common factors (UCFs) are considered. This paper examines the long‐run relationship between technological innovation and international exchange using panel data for eight African countries over the period 1981–2013. The non‐stationarity and cointegration between technological innovation, international exchange, public investment, real gross domestic income and foreign direct investment were examined, controlling for cross‐sectional dependence and heterogeneity between countries. The results suggest that technological innovation in Africa remains low after controlling for UCFs, while public investment, real gross domestic product and foreign direct investment have significant impact on international exchange. Moreover, the results from the homogeneous and heterogeneous estimates, with and without UCFs, show that ignoring UCFs is likely to bias the coefficients. These findings reveal that African countries should invest more in public infrastructures and research and development to upgrade their capability To play an active role in the international market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the economic impact of the $14 billion preparatory infrastructure investments for the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa. We use satellite data on night light luminosity at municipality and electoral district level as a proxy for economic activity, applying synthetic control methods for estimation. For the average World Cup municipality, we find significantly positive, short‐run effects before the tournament, corresponding to a reduction of unemployment by 1.3 percentage points. At the electoral district level, we reveal distinct effect heterogeneity, where especially investments in transport infrastructure are shown to have long‐lasting, positive effects, particularly in rural areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper serves as an introduction to this special issue on the use of multiregional inputoutput modeling in assessments of natural resource use and resource use efficiency. Due to globalization, growth in trade has outpaced growth in global gross domestic product (GDP). As a consequence, impacts of consumption of a country increasingly take place abroad. Various methods have been developed to perform so-called footprint analyses. We argue that global multiregional input-output (GMRIO) analysis has the largest potential to provide a consistent accounting framework to calculate a variety of different footprint indicators. The state of the art in GMRIO has, however, various shortcomings, such as limited sector and regional detail and incomplete extensions. The work presented in this special issue addresses a number of such problems and how to possibly overcome them, focusing on the construction of a new GMRIO database (EXIOBASE V3). This database includes long time series in both current and constant prices, a high level of product and sector detail, a physical representation of the world economy, and allows analyzing which footprints out of the many possible indicators provide most information for policy making. Various options for empirical analyses are presented in this special issue. Finally, we analyze how GMRIOs can be further standardized and gradually moved from the scientific to the official statistical domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study examines the dynamic relationship between oil revenue, government spending and economic growth in Nigeria. Since the discovery of oil, oil proceeds have dominated the country's federation account and have improved public spending. In this paper, we analyse if the huge government spending has improved the rate of economic growth. To do this, the multivariate vector autoregression framework with special attention to Generalised Impulse Response Function is adopted in analysing the annual data of oil revenue, total government expenditure and real Gross Domestic Product from 1980 to 2015. We find evidence that oil receipts remain the major route which public spending is financed and the fundamental source for growth. Hence, there is need for the government to diversify the sources of foreign exchange inflow of the country. The diversification of the economy is required to insulate it from external shocks. It is recommended for Nigeria to explore ways of reviving its huge agricultural potential which has been neglected since the discovery of oil in addition to exploring its rich untapped solid minerals deposit in order to promote diversification of the economy away from a mono cultural product base. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the asymmetric non-linear relationship between insurance and economic growth in Nigeria between 1976 and 2010. Prior studies have examined the direction of causality between insurance and economic growth with mixed conclusions in the insurance-growth literature. Moreover, the majority of these studies assumed symmetric causal relationships by concentrating mainly on testing the supply-leading and demand-following hypothesis. This paper, therefore, contributes to the literature by examining the asymmetric causality test between insurance and economic growth in Nigeria. After the cointegration, the asymmetry causality and the asymmetric impulse responses show a robust significant relationship between high gross domestic product (GDP) and low insurance in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that democracy enhances technological change, the most important determinant of long-term economic growth. It first presents an argument on how and why dictators restrict civil liberties and diffusion of information to survive in office, even if this reduces their personal consumption. The argument predicts that autocracies have slower technological change than democracies, which in turn impairs GDP per capita growth rates. These and other implications from the argument are tested empirically, and so are implications from alternative explanations on the association between democracy and technological change. Drawing on an extensive global dataset, with some time series going back to the early 19th century, the paper reports robust evidence that democracy increases not only technology-induced growth but also net economic growth rates. Notably, the results hold when accounting for the endogeneity of democracy, country-fixed effects, and sample-selection bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyses the impact of domestic and international tourism on the economic growth process for 179 European regions. The econometric analysis is based on a spatial growth regression framework where the rate of GDP per capita growth at the regional level for the period 1999-2009 depends on tourism flows, in addition to the traditional growth variables. Besides controlling for initial conditions, we also include a wide set of covariates to account for the endowment of human and technological capital and for the geographical, social and institutional features of the regions. The results, confirmed by several robustness checks, demonstrate that regional growth is positively affected by domestic and international tourism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper aims to assess the efforts of the Saudi government in diversifying its economy. A descriptive analysis was used to evaluate the efforts the Saudi government exerted to enhance economic diversification through nine development plans covering 45 years (from 1970 to 2014). Two measures of economic diversification were applied, instability of private gross domestic product (GDP) and its relation to oil price instability, and relative contribution of private and public sectors to GDP. The research concludes that Saudi government has succeeded in moving towards economic diversification in the last two development plans compared to the previous seven development plans, although the economic diversification was a slow‐paced process. The performance of the private sector is still low which calls for a prompt intervention from the Saudi government to improve the legislative environment, competition, and attracting big international companies to enter Saudi market and raise the level of efficiency of the private sector and achieve its main goal of being less dependent on oil sector and its revenue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Using a dataset for a panel of 118 countries, this paper shows that changes in the level of education of national populations aged 45 to 64 are positively associated with economic growth. An increase of one percentage point in the share of individuals in this age group who attended secondary education is associated with a 1.2% increase in GDP per capita. In contrast, variation in the level of education in younger cohorts is not positively associated with economic growth. These results suggest that investment in education benefits society, but only in the long‐term. Several possible explanations for this finding are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban areas contribute to nearly two-thirds of India's gross domestic product, but only constitute 31% of the country's population. In this paper, I address the following questions: What are the specializations of Indian cities and towns, and how have these changed over time; and what part of the specialization identified is a result of local advantages versus industry or national economic growth? Answers to these questions are basic to sustaining the competitiveness of India's cities. I used standard Census of India data at city level to compute location quotients for India's cities and towns, and examined changes in their economic base over time. Further, I performed shift-share analyses for selected large cities to disaggregate their employment growth. On average, over 1991-2001, specialization in all sectors, with the exception of trade, decreased. I found evidence of persistence in the sectoral specialization of Indian cities during 1991-2001. Further, in all non-agricultural economic sectors, cities in states know to be backward and lagging are specialized in most sectors. Based on location quotient analyses, I find that Mumbai is the financial capital of the country, Delhi is the seat of public administration, and Bengaluru specializes in transport, storage, and communications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many questions regarding local economic phenomena involve issues of spatial and temporal dependence and heterogeneity. One of the main ideas of the socialist market economic system which was set up in 1978 in China is 'those becoming rich earlier bring along other people, all achieving the common richer eventually'. However, after several decades, having performed a series of balanced development strategies and policies, is this purpose true or not? How about the outcome of regional level of planning strategies under the socialist-market system? This paper focus on the intra provincial development, and uses per capita GDP of Guangdong, one of the most developed provinces in China to analyse the economic development of prefecture-level cities from 1978 to 2013 with a new exploratory space-time method. Three conclusions can be drawn as follows: first, the degree of regional economic development is gradually deepening along with rapid economic development in Guangdong province and the per capita GDP difference is gradually widening between the Pearl River Delta region and the non-Pearl River Delta region. The core-periphery relation is clear within the provincial level's development. Second, the trend and position of space-time paths are different across regions. Third, the space-time paths have not intersected across poor and rich regions during the last 33 years. Widening uneven development is concealed by the 'fast growth' economic phenomenon. The macro-economic environment has had some effects on different regions, with the effect on fast growing areas, such as the core region of the Pearl River Delta the most obvious. There is a lag effect on other undeveloped areas. At the same time, under the socialist market economic system, the market is the main motivation behind regional discrepancies, and some policies and strategies aimed at narrowing the gap have had limited success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current paper seeks to examine the relationship between energy consumption and real output in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) economy. Technically, we assess the following two questions: 'does the increase in energy consumption cause more economic growth in the UAE economy?' or 'does the rapid economic growth lead to more energy consumption?' We utilise the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction model and Granger causality test to achieve the paper goal. The paper employs an annual data series of the UAE real gross domestic product and energy consumption over the 1973-2008 period. The findings of the paper have two levels: short-run and long-run. In the short-run, the results reveal a clear statistically significant bidirectional positive relationship between energy consumption and real output in the UAE economy. However, in the long-run the estimate illustrates only one relationship prevails from the short-run. This one is the statistically significant positive unidirectional relationship running from real output to energy consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, in the context of a spatial model we generalize two indices. One is a dynamic generalization of the emanating effect that was introduced by Kelejian and colleagues. This index describes how events in one unit spill over time to other units due to spatial interactions. As an analogy, it corresponds to the effect that the smoking habits of a given teenager might have on the smoking habits of each of his/her friends. In a sense, our second index, termed the vulnerability index, is the reverse of the first one in that it describes the response of a given unit over time to events in neighbouring units. The analogy here would be how the smoking habits of a given teenager is affected by the smoking habits of all of his/her friends. Second, we empirically implement our indices in the context of a model explaining GDP per capita growth in various countries. In this context the vulnerability index describes the sensitivity of GDP growth in one country with respect to events in other countries; the emanating effect describes how events in one country effect the GDP growth in other countries. Resumen Este artículo tiene un doble objetivo. En primer lugar, y dentro del contexto de un modelo espacial, generalizamos dos índices. El primero es una generalización dinámica del efecto de emanación introducido por Kelejian y colaboradores. Este índice describe cómo lo que sucede en una unidad se extiende con el paso del tiempo a otras unidades por motivos de interacciones espaciales. A modo de analogía, se corresponde con el efecto que podría tener el hábito de fumar de un adolescente en el hábito de fumar de cada una de sus amistades. En cierto sentido, nuestro segundo índice, denominado índice de vulnerabilidad, es lo contrario del primero ya que describe la respuesta de una unidad a lo que sucede en unidades vecinas con el paso del tiempo. La analogía en este caso sería el efecto que podrían tener los hábitos de fumar del conjunto de amistades de un adolescente en particular en su consumo de tabaco. En segundo lugar, realizamos una implementación empírica de nuestros índices dentro del contexto de un modelo que explica el crecimiento per cápita del PIB en varios países. Dentro de este contexto, el índice de vulnerabilidad describe la sensibilidad del crecimiento del PIB de un país en relación con lo que sucede en otros países, mientras que el efecto de emanación describe como lo que sucede en un país afecta al crecimiento del PIB de otros países. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Boulding's 1966 paper on the economics of spaceship Earth established the framework for ecological economics and an understanding of economic growth. In ecological economics, economies are conceptualized as open subsystems of the closed biosphere and are subject to biophysical laws and constraints. Economic growth measured as an increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) has generally been associated with increases in the use of energy and materials and the generation of wastes. Scale, composition, and technology are the proximate determinants of environmental impacts. They are often reduced to two: scale (GDP) and intensity (impact per unit GDP). New work described in this paper defines “green” growth as intensity that declines faster than scale increases. Similarly, “brown” growth occurs when intensity declines more slowly than increases in scale, and “black” growth happens when both scale and intensity increase. These concepts are then related to the environmental Kuznets curve, which can be understood as a transition from brown to green growth. Ecological economics provides a macroperspective on economic growth. It offers broad policy principles, and it challenges the primacy of economic growth as a policy objective, but many important questions remain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the correlation between per capita GDP and per capita consumption of different sources of energy for OPEC Member Countries, the G-7 and three Asian countries, both with and without natural logarithm. In addition, the paper estimates the ratios for total GDP and total energy consumption of different sources of energy and also estimates GDP energy consumption elasticities. The paper concludes that on a per capita basis most OPEC Countries exhibit negative and weak relationships for all forms of energy, including electricity. For the G-7 and Asian countries, this relationship is positive and strong, with the exception of oil for G-7 countries, where there is a weak correlation. Surprisingly, most OPEC Countries showed a comparatively strong and positive correlation when tested for total GDP in relation to total energy consumption of the respective energy sources. The relationship for the rest of the countries remains unchanged. Population might have distorted the results in OPEC Countries. These results suggest that one should be cautious when drawing conclusions and not ignore the aggregate comparison, as this could otherwise lead to wrong results. For G-7 countries, there has been a significant shift in the pattern of energy consumption in relation to GDP when comparing 1960–73 and 1973–2001. All adjusted downward in the later period. However, the greatest adjustment was associated with petroleum consumption. The general conclusion is that wealth creation in G-7 countries is directly associated with the efficient use of all forms of energy. In contrast, most OPEC Countries exhibit a weaker linkage between energy consumption and economic development on a per capita basis, probably due to inefficient usage of resources or due to disproportionate distribution of wealth and thus energy usage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uganda, in an attempt to accelerate growth and development, has been encouraging foreign direct investment (FDI) through privatization programmes and generous incentive packages such as tax holidays and exemptions. However, the Ugandan experience shows that to attract FDI, macroeconomic and political stability and policy consistency are much more important than such incentive schemes. The paper discusses infrastructure and institutional bottlenecks that act as deterrents to FDI. The paper uses time series data to investigate the FDI-growth linkage. The empirical results indicate that FDI has a positive impact on GDP growth in Uganda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of Chinese activities in sub-Saharan African countries with respect to the growth performance of economies in that region. Using a Solow-type growth model and panel data for the period 1991 to 2010, we find that African economies that export natural resources have benefited from positive terms-of-trade effects. In addition, there is evidence for displacement effects of African firms due to competition from China. On the other hand, Chinese foreign investment and aid in Africa does not appear to have a significant impact on African growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzed drivers of foreign direct investments (FDI) to West Africa using a panel dataset from 1970 to 2010. OLS and GMM techniques are used for the estimations. The main results indicate that there is a U-shaped relationship between economic development and FDI inflows to West Africa. In summary: (i) The quadratic element of real per capita GDP, domestic investment, trade openness, first year lag of FDI, natural resources (oil and metals) endowment and exports, and monetary integration have positive and significant effect on FDI inflows to West Africa; and (ii) there is a negative relationship between FDI inflows to the sub-region and loan component of ODA, economic growth, level of economic development (real GDP per capita), life expectancy, and domestic credit to the private sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper revisits the debate on the role of agriculture in promoting economic growth in a selection of nine developing countries. We investigated the causal linkages between agriculture and gross domestic product growth with the aid of directed acyclic graphs, a recently developed algorithm of inductive causation. The results suggest that while agriculture could be an engine of economic growth, the impact varies across countries. In some cases, we found strong evidence in support of the agriculture-led growth hypothesis. In contrast, the results for some other countries indicate that having a vibrant aggregate economy is a prerequisite for agricultural development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper re-examines the long-run finance-growth nexus in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using data from 17 countries over the period 1975-2005. We apply error correction-based panel cointegration tests that take into account cross-sectional dependence among countries. Our results - unlike a previous study using the same data - indicate the existence of a long-run relationship between financial and economic development in SSA countries. Moreover, our results clearly show that the long-run causality runs from financial to economic development, although a muted support for the reverse causal impact is observed when financial development is measured by the percentage of liquid liabilities in GDP. The estimated long-run parameters measuring the finance-growth link are positive and statistically significant. Therefore, our results strongly support policies aimed at developing the financial sector in SSA in order to promote long-run economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between energy consumption and real gross domestic product ( GDP) per capita for the 15 former Soviet Union countries during the period 1992-2009. These countries have been rarely investigated with regard to the related nexus in the literature despite the important role of these countries in energy markets as producers and consumers. Panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests and panel vector error correction model in a dynamic panel framework are employed to infer the causal relationship. The empirical results show that there is a unidirectional causal relationship running from energy consumption to the real GDP per capita in the long run but not in the short-run for the former Soviet Union countries and Commonwealth Independent States countries regardless Russia is included or excluded. However, we discover a bidirectional relationship for oil importer and natural gas importer countries. Therefore, the findings of this study support the growth hypothesis for the former subsegments and feedback hypothesis for the latter subsegments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exercising fiscal prudence in periods of deteriorating fiscal balance requires sound policies which promote debt sustainability. This paper estimates a dynamic cross-country model and investigates the impact of domestic debt on economic growth and private sector credit in a panel of 21 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1985 to 2010. System-GMM results reveal a non-linear relationship between domestic debt and economic growth, characterized by a maximum turning point of 11.4 per cent of GDP. In addition, domestic debt is found to crowd out private sector credit by an elasticity of negative 0.3 per cent of GDP, deterring capital accumulation and private sector growth. These findings underscore the need for effective debt management strategies which incorporate debt ceiling to limit domestic indebtedness, as well as the design of financial policies which enhance credit availability, promote fiscal discipline and deepen domestic debt markets on the continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cities and towns of India constitute the world's second largest urban system and contribute over 50% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). This phenomenon has been neglected by the existing studies and writings on urban India. By considering 59 large cities in India and employing new economic geography models, this paper investigates the relevant state- and city-specific determinants of urban agglomeration and urban economic growth. In addition, the effect of urban agglomeration on India's urban economic growth is estimated. The empirical results show that agglomeration economies are policy-induced as well as market-determined and offer evidence of the strong positive effect of agglomeration on urban economic growth in India's urban system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the characteristics of the recent African economic growth. The data reveal that during the period 1995-2005, Africa caught up with East Asia in terms of economic growth and investment. However, East Asia has improved its advantage on Africa in terms of GDP per capita and growth fundamentals. African economic growth rate was 2.2 percentage points higher during the period 1995-2005 compared to the period 1975-94. However, between the two periods, only primary education, exports and urbanization have significantly increased in Africa. The other growth determinants have either slightly deteriorated or remained stagnant. The results of growth regressions over the period 1995-2005 indicate that investment, private sector access to credit, government effectiveness, exports and the share of agriculture value added in GDP are significantly linked with economic growth. Thus, compared to the statistical analysis, growth regressions suggest that most of the variables which have significantly contributed to growth recovery are not those variables which have positively evolved in Africa. The good news is that African economies have grown recently without changing many growth fundamentals. The bad news is that the recent African growth recovery may not be sustainable if efforts are not focused on right growth fundamentals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The territorial capital of regions is an important determinant of growth, but also of the impact of EU Cohesion Policy. First, because it can act as a filter, enhancing the impact of regional policies. Second, the latter can help building territorial capital which, in turn, will foster regional development. This work analyses the medium and long‐run relationship between the territorial capital of EU NUTS 3 regions and Cohesion Policy using data from the programming period 2000–2006. Results point out complementarities between different territorial assets of regions and the impact of EU regional policy: Cohesion Policy effectiveness is higher when investments are focused on the assets complementary to those already abundant in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The empirical relationship between trade protection and economic growth is surprisingly fragile, as shown in a number of other papers. We address one possible explanation for these findings: that the relationship is contingent on the pattern of comparative advantage, following the endogenous growth literature. Our findings suggest that such contingencies do in fact exist-in particular, the correlation between tariffs and growth is strong and positive for skill-abundant countries-and are robust to the choice of control variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT In this paper, we study the dynamics of economic growth for 140 countries during the period 1951-2003. The variables representing economic performance are levels and growth rates of per capita gross domestic product. Using the concept of economic regime, we introduce a notion of distance between the dynamical paths of different countries. Then, a minimal spanning tree and a hierarchical tree are constructed from time series to help detect the existence of groups of countries sharing similar economic performance. The two main clusters that are identified over the whole-time interval can be interpreted as two groups of countries with high and low performance, respectively. The evolution of such clusters shows three main stylised facts: Certain countries move across clusters; the high-performance cluster tends to span, while the low-performance one tends to be (more) compact; and the distance between the two groups increases in time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the relationship between offshoring and the labor market in an occupational choice model of trade and endogenous growth where workers are employed on the basis of their individual skill levels. Trade liberalization leads to offshoring and reduces employment in the manufacturing sector. Displaced workers move into traditional and innovation sectors according to their skill levels, shaping real wages and aggregate productivity in the manufacturing sector. The paper aims to show how inter-sectoral labor market adjustments, highlighted by skill heterogeneity, could be a possible explanation for the simultaneous rise in productivity and reduction in real wages that have coincided with the sharp escalation of offshoring activities in the U.S. manufacturing sector since 2004. ( JEL F16, F23, J24) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effects of market-based financial sector reforms on the competitiveness and efficiency of commercial banks, and economic growth, in Zambia. The results show that reforms adopted in Phase II (strengthening of regulatory and supervisory, payments and settlements, and financial operations frameworks) and Phase III (implementation of a comprehensive financial sector development plan) had significant positive effects on bank cost efficiency. Macroeconomic variables such as per capita GDP and inflation were insignificant. Further, using an endogenous growth model in which industrial production is a proxy for GDP growth, it was found that bank cost efficiency, financial depth, Phase II and III financial sector reforms, the degree of economic openness, and rate of inflation were significant determinants of economic growth. Phase II policies and the inflation rate have negative effects while the rest of the variables have positive effects on economic growth. Some plausible policy lessons are offered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the mainstream, resource economics, and ecological economics models of growth. A possible synthesis of energy-based and mainstream models is presented. This shows that when energy is scarce it imposes a strong constraint on the growth of the economy; however, when energy is abundant, its effect on economic growth is much reduced. The industrial revolution released the constraints on economic growth by the development of new methods of using coal and the discovery of new fossil fuel resources. Time-series analysis shows that energy and GDP cointegrate, and energy use Granger causes GDP when capital and other production inputs are included in the vector autoregression model. However, various mechanisms can weaken the links between energy and growth. Energy used per unit of economic output has declined in developed and some developing countries, owing to both technological change and a shift from poorer quality fuels, such as coal, to the use of higher quality fuels, especially electricity. Substitution of other inputs for energy and sectoral shifts in economic activity play smaller roles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the non-linear relationship between oil revenues and real output growth of the Iranian economy during 1959–2007 using a threshold error correction model. The estimation results show that the response of economic growth to oil revenue growth in low regimes of oil revenues is greater than in high regimes of oil revenues. The threshold of oil revenues in Iran is about 37 per cent, in a way that increasing the oil revenues over this threshold results in aborting its positive impact on the gross domestic product and its significant effect. In addition, the impact of capital stock on economic growth in low oil revenues is also much more than that in high oil revenues. These results confirm the resource curse, higher rent-seeking activities and lower productivity hypothesis, especially during boom periods for oil revenues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South Africa is one of the wealthiest countries on the African continent. The high national level (and growth) of GDP per capita, however, masks significant differences in economic performance across South Africa's regions. This paper uses (spatial) Markov chain techniques to describe the evolution of the entire cross-section regional income distribution in terms of its intra-distributional characteristics during the post-Apartheid period. The results indicate a heavily diverging regional income distribution. Relatively poor regions are likely to remain poor or become even poorer and the richest regions will maintain their lead in terms of income levels. Explicitly taking account of space furthermore shows that these high-income regions are acting as local growth poles, absorbing economic activity from their immediate surroundings. Location, trade, education, and the variable fortune of the gold mining industry seem to be important determinants of the observed evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to test regional convergence and to investigate interregional disparities in terms of per capita income in Greece. The novelty of our study lies in the use of a disaggregated dataset for an extended time period (1971–2003) at two regional levels (NUTS II & NUTS III). Our results indicate that there is β convergence between prefectures but not among regions, while no evidence of σ convergence is found at both regional levels. Also, the GDP geographic concentration and population density have a negative impact on growth, which outweighs the positive growth effect of population geographic concentration and GDP spatial inequality. Thus, policies aiming at the decentralization of economic activity in Greece might enhance growth and regional equality simultaneously. Finally, we do not find economic dualism across geographic areas; however, rich prefectures seem to converge faster than poor ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research has highlighted that in the last few years, the evolution of regional disparities in many European states has become pro-cyclical. This represents a change with respect to the predominantly anti-cyclical pattern of the 1960s and 1970s. This paper addresses the question of whether and when this change has taken place in the southern periphery of Europe, before analysing the factors that may have played a role in such a change. The analysis relies on a regional database that includes the evolution of the GDP per capita of NUTS II regions in five European countries (France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) between 1980 and 2000. The results of the analysis support the hypothesis of a change towards a pro-cyclical evolution of regional disparities in the cases of Italy, Portugal, and Spain, but not in those of Greece and France. A relationship between these pro-cyclical patterns and the emergence of less dynamic sheltered economies is also detected in peripheral regions. This lack of dynamism is related to the fact that numerous peripheral areas in southern Europe have become increasingly dependent on factors such as transfers or public investment and employment, and therefore are less exposed to changes in market conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores whether the probability of being punished after losing power leads dictators to restrain their level of predation and, thus, increase economic growth. To do so, a simple model of predatory rule is developed, and the consequences of an increasing probability of punishment after loosing power explored. New data on dictators' post-exit fate have permitted to estimate the predicted probability of punishment taking place by using multinomial logit. Outgoing dictators' strength and the international context are shown to be the main determinants of post-exit scenarios. The probability of punishment is proven to have a positive and significant effect on the rate of growth of GDP under alternative specifications of growth regressions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper investigates the relationship between the development of the Ivorian stock market and the country's economic performance. Stock market development indicators were identified and used to calculate the Ivorian stock market development index. A set of control variables were also identified. The empirical results suggest that gross domestic product and stock market development are cointegrated when the control variables are included in the analysis. That is, there is a long-run relationship between these variables taken together. Moreover, there is a unidirectional causality running from stock market development to economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines patterns of persistence, mobility, convergence and divergence in the shape and evolution of the distribution of GDP per head across Great Britain (GB). Using a distribution dynamics approach, the evidence suggests that there is no pattern of overall convergence and a number of counties are persistently located at the extremes of the distribution. While there is some evidence of a north-south divide, fragmented islands and sub-regions of persistence are located across geographical space. This pattern of persistence and divergence coexists with upwards and downwards intra-distributional mobility, some of which appears to exhibit specific spatial patterns. The evidence is more consistent with approaches emphasising uneven development than theories predicting economic convergence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the strong factors reflecting Africa's economic backwardness is the low level of industrial development. Not only does the industrialization process appear to have bypassed the continent, there is evidence of de-industrialization in the case of several countries. This paper seeks to address a set of interrelated questions: To what extent is the growth performance of African economies related to these structural characteristics? More precisely, is there any discernible evidence that GDP growth and overall labour productivity growth of African countries is positively related to how fast their industrial sector is growing? We test out Kaldor's three growth laws: first, that the growth of GDP is positively related to the growth of manufacturing output not simply in a definitional sense (because manufacturing output is a part of GDP) but in a fundamental causal sense related to the production characteristics of manufacturing activity; secondly, that the growth of labour productivity in manufacturing is positively related to manufacturing output growth because of static and dynamic increasing returns to scale (Verdoorn's Law); and thirdly, that there will be a negative relation between labour productivity growth in the economy as a whole and the rate of growth of employment in the non-manufacturing sector because most activity outside the manufacturing sector is subject to diminishing returns, particularly in land-based activities such as agriculture and many service activities. The authors' conclusions are that there is some empirical support for Kaldor's growth laws in respect of the countries of Africa. The growth of GDP seems much more closely associated with the growth of the manufacturing/industrial sector than the agricultural or service sectors. Structural change in favour of industrial activities would almost certainly help to accelerate the growth of GDP and living standards in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical research on the determinants of regional economic development typically neglects the influence of culture. This study fills that gap by attempting to establish a causal linkage between culture and economic development in the Chinese context. Our empirical analyses are based on a comprehensive economic statistics of China's provinces and prefectures during 1978 to 2008. We use Protestantism as a proxy for culture because Protestant ethic has been linked to the spirit of capitalism and commercial culture in Weber's famous work. To isolate the exogenous variation in culture measure, historical Protestant dissemination is employed as instruments. The estimation results suggest that Christian commercial culture has a significantly positive impact on economic performance - per capita GDP after other important influences (i.e., capital, population, human resources, institutional quality, trade, infrastructure, geography, etc.) are controlled for. We also find heterogeneous effects of culture on economic development in different regions of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study estimates the extent of spillover effects that India's real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has on the growth rates of other countries in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) region for the period 2003–2016. It also identifies whether the conventional trade channel is the means through which growth is transmitted from India to her neighboring countries. Using a random effects model, we conclude that on average, a 1 percentage point increase in India's real per capita GDP growth rate results in 0.46 percentage point increase in the per capita GDP growth rates of other SAARC nations. However, this does not occur through the trade channel primarily due to low levels of intraregional trade. Also, using time dummies, the paper analyzes whether there has been any significant change in the degree of spillover effects in the postfinancial crisis period, where countries have been observed to insulate themselves to a certain extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the increasing share of the EU budget devoted to Regional Policy, several studies have tried to identify the impact of structural funds on economic growth. However, so far no consensus has been reached. We assess Regional Policy effects through a non-experimental comparison group method, the regression discontinuity design, and a novel regional dataset for the 1994-2006 period. We exploit the allocation rule of EU transfers by comparing regions with a per capita GDP level just below the eligibility threshold (75% of EU average) with those just above. Our findings show a positive impact of EU Regional Policy on economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]