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Inland waters are among the most threatened biodiversity hotspots. Ponds located in alpine areas are experiencing more rapid and dramatic water temperature increases than any other biome. Despite their prevalence, alpine ponds and their biodiversity responses to climate change have been poorly explored, reflecting their small size and difficult access. To understand the effects of climate change on alpine pond biodiversity, we performed a comprehensive literature review for papers published since 1955. Through analysis of their geographic distribution, environmental features, and biodiversity values, we identified which environmental factors related to climate change would have direct or indirect effects on alpine pond biodiversity. We then synthesized this information to produce a conceptual model of the effects of climate change on alpine pond biodiversity. Increased water temperature, reduced hydroperiod, and loss of connectivity between alpine ponds were the main drivers of biodiversity geographic distribution, leading to predictable changes in spatial patterns of biodiversity. We identified three major research gaps that, if addressed, can guide conservation and restoration strategies for alpine ponds biodiversity in an uncertain future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Contemporary and projected shifts in global fire regimes highlight the importance of understanding how fire affects ecosystem function and biodiversity across taxa and geographies. Pyrodiversity, or heterogeneity in fire history, is often an important driver of biodiversity, though it has been largely overlooked until relatively recently. In this paper, we synthesise previous research to develop a theoretical framework on pyrodiversity–biodiversity relationships and propose future research and conservation management directions. Theoretical Framework: Pyrodiversity may affect biodiversity by diversifying available ecological niches, stabilising community networks and/or supporting diverse species pools available for post‐fire colonisation. Further, pyrodiversity's effects on biodiversity vary across different spatial, temporal and organismal scales depending on the mobility and other life history traits of the organisms in question and may be mediated by regional eco‐evolutionary factors such as historical fire regimes. Developing a generalisable understanding of pyrodiversity effects on biodiversity has been challenging, in part because pyrodiversity can be quantified in various ways. Applying the Pyrodiversity Concept: Exclusion of Indigenous fire stewardship, fire suppression, increased unplanned ignitions and climate change have led to dramatic shifts in fire regimes globally. Such shifts include departures from historic levels of pyrodiversity and add to existing challenges to biodiversity conservation in fire‐prone landscapes. Managers navigating these challenges can be aided by targeted research into observed contemporary pyrodiversity–biodiversity relationships as well as knowledge of historical reference conditions informed by both Indigenous and local ecological knowledge and western science. Future Research Directions: Several promising avenues exist for the advancement of pyrodiversity science to further both theoretical and practical goals. These lines of investigation include but are not limited to (1) testing the increasing variety of pyrodiversity metrics and analytical approaches; (2) assessing the spatial and temporal scale‐dependence of pyrodiversity's influence; (3) reconstructing historical pyrodiversity patterns and developing methods for predicting and/or promoting future pyrodiversity; and (4) expanding the focus of pyrodiversity science beyond biodiversity to better understand its influence on ecosystem function and processes more broadly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The global distribution and diversity of mites, including the species rich and highly host plant‐specific eriophyoid mites, are important questions in biogeography and biodiversity conservation. Here we critique the paper of Li et al. (2023) titled 'Global patterns and drivers of herbivorous eriophyoid mite species diversity'. Location: Global Taxon: Eriophyoid mites (Acari: Eriophyoidea) Methods: We assert that the data set utilized (less than 4,500 eriophyoid species) consisted of only the described extant species, not all extant species. We then provide evidence that the utilised data set represents only a small proportion of the likely global total of eriophyoid species and therefore provides a far from complete representation of their global distribution. Results: Most collections of extant eriophyoid mites have been conducted in temperate regions where most taxonomic specialists have been active, and not in the largely unstudied tropical regions which contain a very substantial majority of all plant diversity. Most undescribed eriophyoid diversity is therefore highly likely to be found in the tropics. This suggests that the global modelling analyses of Li et al. (2023) were very likely applied to a highly inaccurate data set. Main Conclusions: The actual global distribution and total number of eriophyoid mite species can only be more reliably estimated by systematic taxonomic studies that cover the entire global distribution of plant diversity, which implies a strong focus on the tropical regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive alien plants (weeds) are a growing, worldwide problem. Importation ('classical') biological control, using exotic insects, may be a key component in controlling invasive plants. Two‐thirds of plant species targeted worldwide by biocontrol programs experience some level of control, but the success rates are geographically variable and still hard to predict. Better understanding of the interactions of the species involved, and the effects of changing climate, may help to further improve both the efficacy and the predictability of this method. This requires pre‐release studies, as well as post‐release studies that quantify the impact at the population level to validate methodologies and assumptions of pre‐release studies. The 12 original papers of this special issue include pre‐ and post‐release studies on 13 insect species from five orders. The studies cover a wide range of methodologies and altogether they highlight that both target and non‐target impact are highly context dependent. This dedicated issue includes directions for methodological improvements to better assess ecological host ranges of agents and to avoid rejection of safe agents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To investigate the relative contributions of current vs. historical factors in explaining broad-scale diversity gradients using a combination of contemporary factors and a quantitative estimate of the temporal accessibility of areas for recolonization created by glacial retreat following the most recent Ice Age. The part of the Nearctic region of North America that was covered by ice sheets during the glacial maximum 20 000 BP. We used range maps to estimate the species richness of mammals and terrestrial birds in 48 400 km2 cells. Current conditions in each cell were quantified using seven climatic and topographical variables. Historical conditions were estimated using the number of years before present when an area became exposed as the ice sheets retreated during the post-Pleistocene climate warming. We attempted to tease apart contemporary and historical effects using multiple regression, partial regression and spatial autocorrelation analysis. A measure of current energy inputs, potential evapotranspiration, explained 76–82% of the variance in species richness, but time since deglaciation explained an additional 8–13% of the variance, primarily due to effects operating at large spatial scales. Because of spatial covariation between the historical climates influencing the melting of the ice sheet and current climates, it was not possible to partition their effects fully, but of the independent effects that could be identified, current climate explained two to seven times more variance in richness patterns than age. Factors acting in the present appear to have the strongest influence on the diversity gradient, but an historical signal persisting at least 13 000 years is still detectable. This has implications for modelling changes in diversity patterns in response to future global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an era of climate change, biodiversity loss, and a global pandemic, many scientists have experienced grief, anxiety, and despair as they face ongoing ecological challenges. The practice of conservation science has also become contentious in light of increasingly polarized viewpoints and conflicts among stakeholders. These ecological and social challenges may hinder conservation scientists' ability to identify critical science needs that can inform and improve conservation policies, actions, and outcomes. Mindfulness practices provide a centering framework that supports scientists in addressing these challenges while also fostering meaningful collaborations with other conservation scientists and practitioners. In this paper, we synthesize theories from mindfulness and attitudinal foundations that offer practical steps toward the kind of resilient mindset needed to address challenges flexibly and from a solutions‐driven perspective. By cultivating equanimity, gratitude and hope, mindfulness practices bring understanding and empathy to collaborative activities, improving our collective ability to generate meaningful science that addresses pressing environmental challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper presents an interdisciplinary concept dealing with climate change and biodiversity. Its aim is to foster the connectedness to nature and especially the environmental knowledge, which both influence the environmental competence. The pupils are supposed to become aware of the importance of biodiversity in the context of climate change and also acquire or consolidate the necessary chemical background knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 25 August 2022, the Zoologica Scripta ‐ An International Journal of Systematic Zoology and the Norwegian Academy of Sciences and Letters arranged a symposium entitled 'The role of systematics for understanding ecosystem functions' in the Academy's premises in Oslo, Norway. The symposium aimed at offering a forum for exploring and discussing trends and future developments in the field of systematics. Eleven international experts contributed expertise on various issues related to global challenges, such as biodiversity assessments, databases, cutting‐edge analysis tools, and the consequences of the taxonomic impediment. Here, we compiled a multi‐author proceedings paper of the symposium contributions that are arranged in chapters and presents the content and the key conclusions of the majority of the presentations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the importance of permanent grasslands (PG) for the conservation of high nature value habitats is often acknowledged, their role in most of the main sustainable food system scenarios published in the last few years is less explicit. In the best case, the place of permanent grassland in scenarios and policy agendas is their conservation; in the worst one, they are simply replaced by afforested land or cropland, considered as a better option when the focus is on GHG emissions only. In this paper, we defend the idea that several misinterpretations of the positive and negative impacts of ruminants, the 'natural' users of PG, explain why ruminants are poorly addressed by most scenarios. Based on the findings of an agroecological scenario for Europe—TYFA, standing for Ten Years For Agroecology—in which extensive permanent grassland and ruminants together play a prominent role for biodiversity conservation, nitrogen cycling and climate change mitigation and adaptation, we call for a research agenda that would better inform the specific role of PG in the provision of ecosystem services—and in particular those that depend on nitrogen management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the species occurrence record of zooxanthellate reef‐building corals at 1047 sites on the Japanese coast, recorded from 1929 to 2017. The dataset includes 484 confirmed scientific species names compiled from 152 literature sources, most of which were written in Japanese and published as gray literature in local journals or individual reports. Scientific names were consolidated under currently accepted nomenclature based on the World Register of Marine Species. Further revision of species names was made by referring to monographs on temperate coral species of Japan, along with expert knowledge. The dataset includes the coral species recorded each year at each study site, the geographical location of each site, and the scientific names of the corals. Three supporting datasets were created, containing a list of literature, the names of the sites and synonymization and confirmation of the coral names. This up‐to‐date collection of data is a contribution to the study of coral biogeography and conservation planning, as well as long‐term changes in coral species distributions in response to climate change. The complete data set for this abstract published in the Data Paper section of the journal is available in electronic format in MetaCat in JaLTER at http://db.cger.nies.go.jp/JaLTER/metacat/metacat/ERDP-2020-08.1/jalter-en. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of soils to society has gained increasing recognition over the past decade, with the potential to contribute to most of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). With unprecedented and growing demands for food, water and energy, there is an urgent need for a global effort to address the challenges of climate change and land degradation, whilst protecting soil as a natural resource. In this paper, we identify the contribution of soil science over the past decade to addressing gaps in our knowledge regarding major environmental challenges: climate change, food security, water security, urban development, and ecosystem functioning and biodiversity. Continuing to address knowledge gaps in soil science is essential for the achievement of the SDGs. However, with limited time and budget, it is also pertinent to identify effective methods of working that ensure the research carried out leads to real‐world impact. Here, we suggest three strategies for the next decade of soil science, comprising a greater implementation of research into policy, interdisciplinary partnerships to evaluate function trade‐offs and synergies between soils and other environmental domains, and integrating monitoring and modelling methods to ensure soil‐based policies can withstand the uncertainties of the future. Highlights: We highlight the contributions of soil science to five major environmental challenges since 2010.Researchers have contributed to recommendation reports, but work is rarely translated into policy.Interdisciplinary work should assess trade‐offs and synergies between soils and other domains.Integrating monitoring and modelling is key for robust and sustainable soils‐based policymaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land‐use change is considered the greatest threat to nature, having caused worldwide declines in the abundance, diversity, and health of species and ecosystems. Despite increasing research on this global change driver, there are still challenges to forming an effective synthesis. The estimated impact of land‐use change on biodiversity can depend on location, research methods, and taxonomic focus, with recent global meta‐analyses reaching disparate conclusions. Here, we critically appraise this research body and our ability to reach a reliable consensus. We employ named entity recognition to analyze more than 4000 abstracts, alongside full reading of 100 randomly selected papers. We highlight the broad range of study designs and methodologies used; the most common being local space‐for‐time comparisons that classify land use in situ. Species metrics including abundance, distribution, and diversity were measured more frequently than complex responses such as demography, vital rates, and behavior. We identified taxonomic biases, with vertebrates well represented while detritivores were largely missing. Omitting this group may hinder our understanding of how land‐use change affects ecosystem feedback. Research was heavily biased toward temperate forested biomes in North America and Europe, with warmer regions being acutely underrepresented despite offering potential insights into the future effects of land‐use change under novel climates. Various land‐use histories were covered, although more research in understudied regions including Africa and the Middle East is required to capture regional differences in the form of current and historical land‐use practices. Failure to address these challenges will impede our global understanding of land‐use change impacts on biodiversity, limit the reliability of future projections and have repercussions for the conservation of threatened species. Beyond identifying literature biases, we highlight the research priorities and data gaps that need urgent attention and offer perspectives on how to move forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reality of climate change and biodiversity collapse is irrefutable in the 21st century, with urgent action required not only to conserve threatened species but also to protect human life and wellbeing. This existential threat forces us to recognise that our existence is completely dependent upon well-functioning ecosystems that sustain the diversity of life on our planet, including that required for human health. By synthesising data on the ecology, epidemiology and evolutionary biology of various pathogens, we are gaining a better understanding of factors that underlie disease emergence and spread. However, our knowledge remains rudimentary with limited insight into the complex feedback loops that underlie ecological stability, which are at risk of rapidly unravelling once certain tipping points are breached. In this paper, we consider the impact of climate change and biodiversity collapse on the ever-present risk of infectious disease emergence and spread. We review historical and contemporaneous infectious diseases that have been influenced by human environmental manipulation, including zoonoses and vector- and water-borne diseases, alongside an evaluation of the impact of migration, urbanisation and human density on transmissible diseases. The current lack of urgency in political commitment to address climate change warrants enhanced understanding and action from paediatricians - to ensure that we safeguard the health and wellbeing of children in our care today, as well as those of future generations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The health of the world's oceans is intrinsically linked to the biodiversity of the ecosystems they sustain. The importance of protecting and maintaining ocean biodiversity has been affirmed through the setting of the UN Sustainable Development Goal 14 to conserve and sustainably use the ocean for society's continuing needs. The decade beginning 2021–2030 has additionally been declared as the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development. This program aims to maximize the benefits of ocean science to the management, conservation, and sustainable development of the marine environment by facilitating communication and cooperation at the science–policy interface. A central principle of the program is the conservation of species and ecosystem components of biodiversity. However, a significant omission from the draft version of the Decade of Ocean Science Implementation Plan is the acknowledgment of the importance of monitoring and maintaining genetic biodiversity within species. In this paper, we emphasize the importance of genetic diversity to adaptive capacity, evolutionary potential, community function, and resilience within populations, as well as highlighting some of the major threats to genetic diversity in the marine environment from direct human impacts and the effects of global climate change. We then highlight the significance of ocean genetic diversity to a diverse range of socioeconomic factors in the marine environment, including marine industries, welfare and leisure pursuits, coastal communities, and wider society. Genetic biodiversity in the ocean, and its monitoring and maintenance, is then discussed with respect to its integral role in the successful realization of the 2030 vision for the Decade of Ocean Science. Finally, we suggest how ocean genetic diversity might be better integrated into biodiversity management practices through the continued interaction between environmental managers and scientists, as well as through key leverage points in industry requirements for Blue Capital financing and social responsibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and increased anthropogenic activities are expected to elevate the potential of introducing nonindigenous species (NIS) into the Arctic. Yet, the knowledge base needed to identify gaps and priorities for NIS research and management is limited. Here, we reviewed primary introduction events to each ecoregion of the marine Arctic realm to identify temporal and spatial patterns, likely source regions of NIS, and the putative introduction pathways. We included 54 introduction events representing 34 unique NIS. The rate of NIS discovery ranged from zero to four species per year between 1960 and 2015. The Iceland Shelf had the greatest number of introduction events (n = 14), followed by the Barents Sea (n = 11), and the Norwegian Sea (n = 11). Sixteen of the 54 introduction records had no known origins. The majority of those with known source regions were attributed to the Northeast Atlantic and the Northwest Pacific, 19 and 14 records, respectively. Some introduction events were attributed to multiple possible pathways. For these introductions, vessels transferred the greatest number of aquatic NIS (39%) to the Arctic, followed by natural spread (30%) and aquaculture activities (25%). Similar trends were found for introductions attributed to a single pathway. The phyla Arthropoda and Ochrophyta had the highest number of recorded introduction events, with 19 and 12 records, respectively. Recommendations including vector management, horizon scanning, early detection, rapid response, and a pan‐Arctic biodiversity inventory are considered in this paper. Our study provides a comprehensive record of primary introductions of NIS for marine environments in the circumpolar Arctic and identifies knowledge gaps and opportunities for NIS research and management. Ecosystems worldwide will face dramatic changes in the coming decades due to global change. Our findings contribute to the knowledge base needed to address two aspects of global change—invasive species and climate change. This paper examines the current status and future risks of biological invasions in the marine environments of the Arctic, within the context of climate change, natural resource development, and expanded Arctic shipping. The number of nonindigenous species introductions varied across the region with the greatest number of introductions recorded in the Iceland Shelf, followed by the Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea. Most introductions were attributed to vessels, natural spread, and aquaculture activities. Vector management, horizon scanning, early detection, rapid response, and a pan‐Arctic biodiversity inventory are recommended to address future invasion risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we nominally propose three dimensions of medical ethics, using the term medical ethics rather than clinical ethics to focus on the professional obligation of paediatricians in and beyond the ward and clinic. We argue there exists a duty to children along the continuum of all three dimensions. In this taxonomy, the first dimension is the obligation of paediatricians to serve the best interests of their individual patients. The second dimension involves public health aspects and communitarian concerns with a focus on utilitarian principles, such as cost-effectiveness and just resource allocation. The third dimension of medical ethics is the obligation we hold in trust to support and respect the well-being of future generations. As our ecological footprint, characterised by climate change and biodiversity collapse, will adversely affect the health of today's children and those yet unborn, paediatricians have a contemporaneous moral obligation to speak out and act as both advocates and activists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: For the 70th Anniversary of the establishment of the British Society of Soil Science, this short paper explores the idea that research on soil organic matter has remained a central theme within soil science over the past 70 years, albeit with changing emphasis and application. The number of publications on soil organic matter has increased greatly in recent decades; for example, there were almost 35 000 journal papers with this theme in the decade 2007–2016. Several topics in research on soil organic matter, such as soil fertility, have endured for a number of decades, with publications found on soil organic matter and fertility in the decade 1947–1956. A search with other keywords occurring with soil, such as climate change, biodiversity, fertility, quality, health and security, showed that several topics did not appear before the 1970s and 1980s, but since then the sub‐topics and applications have diversified. Carbon is a keyword that has become more associated with publications on soil organic matter; carbon is in over half of soil organic matter publications of the last decade. A closer examination of research on agricultural soil carbon sequestration since 1990 reveals that the focus of papers in the literature has changed over this period. A closer examination of papers on modelling shows that the next generation of soil organic matter models is developing from pseudo first‐order decay models using conceptual pools and prescribed controls of turnover time to vertically resolved, microbially explicit models representing mineral surface and plant interactions. Given its higher policy profile during the last 2 years, research on soil organic matter and soil carbon sequestration is predicted to have a bright future. Highlights: The number of publications on soil organic matter has increased greatly in recent decades. Soil fertility research has endured for many decades, whereas other topics have diversified. Soil organic matter has been increasingly associated with carbon, which has changed the focus of papers since 1990. Expanding policy attention to soil organic matter research during the last 2 years suggests a bright future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is a consequence of evolutionary and ecological mechanisms acting over long history, and thus is best investigated with organisms that have rich fossil records. However, combined neontological‐palaeontological investigations are mostly limited to large, shelled invertebrates, which keeps our mechanistic understanding of LDGs in its infancy. This paper aims to describe the modern meiobenthic ostracod LDG and to explore the possible controlling factors and the evolutionary mechanisms of this large‐scale biodiversity pattern. Location: Present‐day Western North Atlantic. Taxon: Ostracoda. Methods: We compiled ostracod census data from shallow‐marine environments of the western North Atlantic Ocean. Using these data, we documented the marine LDG with multiple metrics of alpha, beta (nestedness and turnover) and gamma diversity, and we tested whether macroecological patterns could be governed by different environmental factors, including temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, pH and primary productivity. We also explored the geologic age distribution of ostracod genera to investigate the evolutionary mechanisms underpinning the LDG. Results: Our results show that temperature and climatic niche conservatism are important in setting LDGs of these small, poorly dispersing organisms. We also found evidence for some dispersal‐driven spatial dynamics in the ostracod LDG. Compared to patterns observed in marine bivalves, however, dispersal dynamics were weaker and they were bi‐directional, rather than following the 'out‐of‐the‐tropics' model. Main conclusions: Our detailed analyses revealed that meiobenthic organisms, which comprise two‐thirds of marine diversity, do not always follow the same rules as larger, better‐studied organisms. Our findings suggest that the understudied majority of biodiversity may be more sensitive to climate than well‐studied, large organisms. This implies that the impacts of ongoing Anthropocene climatic change on marine ecosystems may be much more serious than presently thought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mediterranean wetlands are of key interest in the preservation of biodiversity. However, their ecological water requirement is in constant competition with human uses, particularly in a context of aridity and climate change. This paper examines the case of the Ichkeul Lake‐Lagoon system located in the north of Tunisia in a river basin that is heavily contributing to the water supply of southern regions through water transfers. It maps out the various actors involved, their stakes, discourses and strategies, and explains the current degradation of the Ichkeul system by unpacking the decision‐making power of these actors. It confirms that marginal social groups, ecosystems and next generations are the main parties affected by current water allocation patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine fish are an irreplaceable resource, but are currently under threat through overfishing and climate change. To date, most of the emphasis has been on single stocks or populations of economic importance. However, commercially valuable species are embedded in assemblages of many species and there is only limited understanding of the extent to which the structure of whole communities has altered in recent years. Most assemblages are dominated by one or a few species, with these highly abundant species underpinning ecosystem services and harvesting decisions. This paper shows that there have been marked temporal changes in the dominance structure of Scottish marine‐fish assemblages over the past three decades, where dominance is measured as the proportional numerical abundance of the most dominant species. We report contrasting patterns in both the identity of the dominant species and shifts in the relative abundance of the dominant in assemblages to the east and west of Scotland, UK. This result highlights the importance of multi‐species analyses of harvested stocks and has implications not only for fisheries management but also for consumer choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cropland expansion threatens biodiversity by driving habitat loss and impacts carbon storage through loss of biomass and soil carbon (C). There is a growing concern land‐use change (LUC) to cropland will result in a loss of ecosystem function and various ecosystem services essential for human health and well‐being. This paper examines projections of future cropland expansion from an integrated assessment model IMAGE 3.0 under a "business as usual" scenario and the direct impact on both biodiversity and C storage. By focusing on biodiversity hotspots and Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE) sites, loss of habitat as well as potential impacts on endangered and critically endangered species are explored. With regards to C storage, the impact on both soil and vegetation standing C stocks are examined. We show that if projected trends are realized, there are likely to be severe consequences for these resources. Substantial loss of habitat in biodiversity hotspots such as Indo‐Burma, and the Philippians is expected as well as 50% of species in AZE sites losing part of their last remaining habitat. An estimated 13.7% of vegetation standing C stocks and 4.6% of soil C stocks are also projected to be lost in areas affected with Brazil and Mexico being identified as priorities in terms of both biodiversity and C losses from cropland expansion. Changes in policy to regulate projected cropland expansion, and increased measures to protect natural resources, are highly likely to be required to prevent these biodiversity and C losses in the future. This article examines the projected impacts of cropland expansion on both carbon storage and biodiversity if current trends continue. It focuses on biodiversity hotspots and the Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE) sites for biodiversity as well as both soil and standing vegetation carbon stocks. Results are compared on both a regional and national level identifying priority areas where impacts on both ecosystem services are likely to be the greatest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past twelve years the number of papers that explore the impacts of climate change on biodiversity in the conservation literature has grown on average by 20% annually. By categorising these papers on their primary research questions, we show that the vast majority of these articles (88.6%) focus only on those impacts that arise directly as a result of climate change, ignoring the potentially significant indirect threats that arise from human adaptation responses. This pattern has remained fairly consistent throughout the review period (2000-2012), with a trend towards more articles considering both direct and indirect impacts towards the end of the period. We also find a bias in the time-frames considered by published articles that project future impacts of climate change on biodiversity, with more than three-quarters (77.9%) of papers only considering impacts after 2031, and almost half (49.1%) only considering impacts after 2051. This focus on long-term, direct impacts creates a mismatch, not only with the life-cycles of species and timescales of many ecological processes, but also with most management and policy timelines and the short-term nature of human decision making processes. The focus on studying the long-term, direct impacts of climate change on biodiversity is likely a function of the lack of availability of climate projections on shorter temporal scales; a perception that short-term impacts will be minor; and, insufficient integration with the social and political sciences. While the direct impact of changes in mean climatic conditions will significantly change the biosphere by the end of the century, near term changes in seasonality and extreme events coupled with human adaptation responses are likely to have substantial impacts much sooner, threatening the survival of species and ecosystems. It is therefore essential that we balance our research efforts to facilitate a better understanding of these more imminent threats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are growing needs to broaden and deepen our multi-faceted understanding of the ecosystems, and the networks of Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) can play significant roles in fostering and applying ecosystem studies at regional and global scales. The International LTER Network (ILTER) is organized as a global network of field research sites and scientists to address current ecological issues such as biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation within a globally changing environment. The ILTER East Asia-Pacific Regional Network (ILTER-EAP) is one of the four constituent ILTER regional networks. Since 1995, ILTER-EAP has been developed to promote data sharing, research collaborations and capability building in the science and to bridge gaps between societal needs and scientific imperatives on concerns in the Asia-Pacific Region. Currently, ILTER-EAP comprises nine formal ILTER members and two associate networks. Their activities involve long-term and multiple-site observations of structural, functional and developmental aspects of ecosystems, data sharing, and bridging society and ecological science. This paper presents a review of the activities of ILTER-EAP, focusing on its: (1) vision and the development following its inception, (2) scientific activities and major outputs related to selected thematic areas, (3) contributions from ILTER-EAP to the international initiatives, and (4) future challenges and opportunities relating to its development and role in facilitating regional and global research collaborations. Accordingly, regional research questions were identified that could be most effectively addressed by opening up a common research platform, integrated data management system and the network science, which is open to all interested parties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rate at which climate is changing in northern latitudes presents a significant threat to bird populations that rely on boreal forests. Alterations in the distributions of trees and other plants as a result of warming will alter the habitat suitability of vast regions of boreal and hemiboreal forests. Climate change associated habitat alterations along with range expansions of bird species are likely to have substantial consequences on avian communities and biodiversity. Identifying factors that contribute to species coexistence and community assembly processes at local and regional scales will facilitate predictions about the impact of climate change on avian communities in these forest ecosystems. This paper provides a comprehensive review of historic and current theories of community ecology dynamics providing a theoretical synthesis that links the evolution of species traits at the individual level, the dynamics of species interactions, and the overall maintenance of biodiversity. Integration of these perspectives is necessary to provide the scientific means to face growing environmental challenges in boreal ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been an increasing investment of taxpayer dollars in revegetation in Australia over the past 20 years, at both federal and state levels. The largest of these, the Australian Government's Biodiversity Fund, will invest A$946 million to revegetate, rehabilitate and restore landscapes to store carbon, enhance biodiversity and build environmental resilience under climate change. The universal challenge for restoration practitioners working within these programmes is species selection for both current and future environmental conditions at a given site. For policy makers, the challenge is to provide guidelines and tools for this process. The first paper in this series of two papers looked at scientific methods that could provide underpinning knowledge to improve the assessment of species vulnerability to climatic and atmospheric change. In this paper, the publically accessible Atlas of Living Australia is used to demonstrate how revegetation project leaders can assess whether the species and provenances used in their revegetation projects are likely to be suitable for changing environmental conditions. While using the Atlas can assist current selections, ways in which more reliable selections for changing climatic conditions could be made are also outlined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Governments across Australia have long been investing in revegetation in an effort to restore biodiversity and, more recently, mitigate climate change. However, no readily available methods have been described to assist project leaders identify species and provenance material likely to be sustainable under the changing climatic conditions of coming decades. Focussing particularly on trees, as trees are important for biosequestration as well as for providing habitat for other native species, Paper 1 of this two part series briefly reviews species distribution models and growth simulation models that could provide the scientific underpinning to improve and refine selection processes. While these previous scientific studies provide useful insights into how trees may respond to climate change, it is concluded that a readily accessible and easy-to-use approach is required to consider the potential adaptability of the many trees, shrubs and ground cover species that may be needed for biodiverse plantings. In Part 2 of this paper, the Atlas of Living Australia is used to provide preliminary information to assist species selection by assessing the climatic range of individual species based on their current distributions and, where available, cultivated locations. While using the Atlas can assist current selections, ways are outlined in Part 2 in which more reliable selections for changing climatic conditions could be made, building on the methods described here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim This paper describes a set of integrative scenarios developed in the ALARM (Assessing LArge-scale environmental Risks for biodiversity with tested Methods) project. The ultimate aim of ALARM was to develop and test methods and protocols for the assessment of large-scale environmental risks to biodiversity and to evaluate mitigation options. Scenarios provide a tool for exploring such risks and the policy options to mitigate them; therefore they play a central role within the ALARM project. Methods Three integrative scenarios (liberalization, business as might be usual, sustainability) were developed and illustrated using the econometric model described in a subsequent paper. They are contextualized with projections from climate models and provide the input for model-based assessments of biodiversity trends. Additionally, three shock scenarios were developed (Gulf Stream collapse, peak oil, pandemic) to demonstrate the limits of linear extrapolation. As these extend beyond model capabilities, they are discussed semi-quantitatively based on modelling insights. Results Although the policy impacts on biodiversity are different for different pressures, biomes and species groups, some general trends could be identified. An extension of current EU policies will act as a brake on current trends by slowing down the loss of biodiversity in many cases and in most biomes, but it will be capable of neither halting nor of reversing the loss. Liberalization has the effect of accelerating biodiversity loss across the board, with few exceptions. A coherent sustainability scenario is clearly the most effective at preserving biodiversity, but the variant tested here still does not halt losses in all cases. Main conclusions Current EU policies for protecting biodiversity appear to be insufficient to reverse ongoing losses. Coherent sustainability strategies are effective at conserving biodiversity, but in order to assess losses and then reverse them, measures would need to be introduced that extend beyond the steps tested in the ALARM sustainability scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decision makers, planners and researchers have identified the need to assess the effects of climate change on biodiversity, resulting in extensive research across a number of fields. The availability of comprehensive, accurate and relevant data is central to undertaking effective research. However, the quality and availability of biodiversity information is substantially determined by current and historical data collection strategies. If researchers and planners are to make effective use of existing and future investments in biodiversity information, a strategic approach should be taken in identifying and implementing best practice information management. This paper discusses ways to improve institutional support for information management and increase the availability of quality information. The paper reviews the most common areas of climate change and biodiversity research, and identifies best practices in information management, focusing on data used within biodiversity and climate change analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary1. Natural, semi-natural and artificial grasslands occur extensively around the globe, but successful management for production and biodiversity poses several dilemmas for conservationists and farmland managers. Deriving from three continents (Africa, Australia and Europe), papers in this Special Profile interface three specific issues: plant responses to grazing, plant invasions and the responses to management of valued grassland biota. 2. Although pivotal in grassland management, plant responses to grazing are sometimes difficult to predict. Two alternative approaches are presented here. The first uses natural variations in sheep grazing around a water hole to model the dynamic population response of a chenopod shrub. The second analyses a long-term grazing experiment to investigate the links between plant traits and grazing response. 3. Linked often crucially with grazing, but also driven sometimes by extrinsic factors, invasions are often cause for concern in grassland management. The invasions of grasslands by woody plants threatens grassland habitats while the invasions of pastures by alien weeds reduces pasture productivity. The papers in this section highlight how a complementary range of management activities can reduce the abundance of invaders. A final paper highlights how global environmental change is presenting new circumstances in which grassland invasion can occur. 4. The impact of grassland management on biodiversity is explored in this Special Profile with specific reference to invertebrates, increasingly recognized both for the intrinsic conservation value of many groups and for their role in ecosystem processes. The potential for manipulating flooding in wet grasslands to increase the soil invertebrate prey of wading birds is illustrated, together with the roles of management and landscape structure in enhancing insect diversity. 5. In the face of climate change and growing demands for agricultural productivity, future pressures on grassland ecosystems will intensify. In this system in which productivity and conservation are so closely bound, there is a need both to raise the profile of the issues involved, and to improve our understanding of the applied ecology required for successful management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accelerating rate of global change has focused attention on the cumulative impacts of novel and extreme environmental changes (i.e. stressors), especially in marine ecosystems. As integrators of local catchment and regional processes, freshwater ecosystems are also ranked highly sensitive to the net effects of multiple stressors, yet there has not been a large-scale quantitative synthesis. We analysed data from 88 papers including 286 responses of freshwater ecosystems to paired stressors and discovered that overall, their cumulative mean effect size was less than the sum of their single effects (i.e. an antagonistic interaction). Net effects of dual stressors on diversity and functional performance response metrics were additive and antagonistic, respectively. Across individual studies, a simple vote-counting method revealed that the net effects of stressor pairs were frequently more antagonistic (41%) than synergistic (28%), additive (16%) or reversed (15%). Here, we define a reversal as occurring when the net impact of two stressors is in the opposite direction (negative or positive) from that of the sum of their single effects. While warming paired with nutrification resulted in additive net effects, the overall mean net effect of warming combined with a second stressor was antagonistic. Most importantly, the mean net effects across all stressor pairs and response metrics were consistently antagonistic or additive, contrasting the greater prevalence of reported synergies in marine systems. Here, a possible explanation for more antagonistic responses by freshwater biota to stressors is that the inherent greater environmental variability of smaller aquatic ecosystems fosters greater potential for acclimation and co-adaptation to multiple stressors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freshwater ecosystems in arid regions range from highly fragmented to highly connected, and connectivity has been assumed to be a major factor in the persistence of aquatic biota in arid environments. This review sought to synthesize existing research on genetic estimation of population connectivity in desert freshwaters, identify knowledge gaps, and set priorities for future studies of connectivity in these environments. From an extensive literature search, we synthesized the approaches applied, systems studied, and conclusions about connectivity reached in population genetic research concerning desert freshwater connectivity globally. We restrict our scope to obligate aquatic fauna that disperse largely via freshwaters and exclude those with active aerial dispersal abilities. We examined 92 papers, comprising 133 studies, published from 1987 to 2014. Most described studies of fishes and invertebrates in the deserts of Australia and North America. Connectivity declined with increasing scale, but did not differ significantly among arid regions or taxonomic classes. There were significant differences in connectivity patterns between species with different dispersal abilities, and between spring and riverine habitats at local scales. Population connectivity in desert freshwaters is typically most influenced by the ecology of the species concerned and hydrological connectivity. Most studies did not assess predefined models of connectivity, but described gene flow and/or genetic structure. Climate change and anthropogenic impacts worldwide are likely to increase the incidence and impact of habitat fragmentation in already threatened desert freshwaters. To reduce this risk, biodiversity conservation and environmental management must address connectivity, but often the required information does not exist. Researchers can provide this by explicitly considering the effects of hydrology and species' ecology on connectivity, and incorporating these into connectivity models, which are vital for understanding connectivity in desert freshwaters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A future higher risk of severe flooding of streams and rivers has been projected to change riparian plant community composition and species richness, but the extent and direction of the expected change remain uncertain. We conducted a meta-analysis to synthesize globally available experimental evidence and assess the effects of increased flooding on (1) riparian adult plant and seedling survival, (2) riparian plant biomass and (3) riparian plant species composition and richness. We evaluated which plant traits are of key importance for the response of riparian plant species to flooding. We identified and analysed 53 papers from ISI Web of Knowledge which presented quantitative experimental results on flooding treatments and corresponding control situations. Our meta-analysis demonstrated how longer duration of flooding, greater depth of flooding and, particularly, their combination reduce seedling survival of most riparian species. Plant height above water level, ability to elongate shoots and plasticity in root porosity were decisive for adult plant survival and growth during longer periods of flooding. Both 'quiescence' and 'escape' proved to be successful strategies promoting riparian plant survival, which was reflected in the wide variation in survival (full range between 0 and 100%) under fully submerged conditions, while plants that protrude above the water level (>20 cm) almost all survive. Our survey confirmed that the projected increase in the duration and depth of flooding periods is sufficient to result in species shifts. These shifts may lead to increased or decreased riparian species richness depending on the nutrient, climatic and hydrological status of the catchment. Species richness was generally reduced at flooded sites in nutrient-rich catchments and sites that previously experienced relatively stable hydrographs (e.g. rain-fed lowland streams). Species richness usually increased at sites in desert and semi-arid climate regions (e.g. intermittent streams). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human impacts threaten not only species, but also entire ecosystems. Ecosystems under stress can collapse or transition into different states, potentially reducing biodiversity at a variety of scales. Here we examine the vulnerability of Antarctic shallow invertebrate-dominated ecosystems, which may be threatened for several reasons. These unique shallow-water communities mostly consist of dark-adapted invertebrates, and rely on sea ice to create low-light marine environments. Climate change is likely to cause early breakout of seasonal sea ice in parts of Antarctica, which will dramatically increase the amount of light reaching shallow seabed. This is predicted to result in ecological regime shifts, in which invertebrate-dominated communities are replaced by macroalgal beds. Habitat for these endemic Antarctic ecosystems is globally rare, and the fragmented nature of their distribution along Antarctic coast increases their sensitivity to change. Concurrently, human activities in Antarctica are concentrated in areas where these habitats occur, compounding potential impacts. While there are clear mechanisms of threat to these ecosystems, lack of knowledge about their spatial distribution obscures predictions of potential ecosystem loss, and the likelihood of recovery. In this paper we describe these ecosystems, their association with the environment and the reasons for their vulnerability. We estimate their spatial distribution around Antarctica using sea ice and bathymetric data, and apply the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Ecosystems criteria to assess their vulnerability. Best available data suggest that shallow ice-covered ecosystems are likely Near Threatened to Vulnerable in places, although the magnitude of risk is spatially variable and requires additional data to strengthen the assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Little is known about how marine biodiversity responds to oceanographic and climatic changes over the decadal to centennial time-scales which are most relevant for predicted climate changes due to greenhouse gas forcing. This paper aims to reveal decadal-centennial scale deep-sea biodiversity dynamics for the last 20,000 years and then explore potential environmental drivers. Location The North Atlantic Ocean. Methods We investigated deep-sea benthic microfossil records to reveal biodiversity dynamics and subsequently applied comprehensive ecological modelling to test possible environmental factors (i.e. surface productivity, seasonality of productivity or deepwater circulation related to bottom-water temperature) that may have influenced deep-sea biodiversity over these time-scales. Results Deep-sea biodiversity changed synchronously with stadial-interstadial climate changes over the last 20,000 years across a large area of the North Atlantic in both ostracod crustaceans and foraminiferan protozoa (in spite of their different dispersal abilities). Species diversity rapidly increased during abrupt stadial events during the last deglacial and the Holocene interglacial periods. These include the well-known Heinrich 1, the Younger Dryas and the 8.2 ka events when the strength of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ( AMOC) decreased. There is also evidence for quasi-cyclic changes in biodiversity at a c. 1500-year periodicity, consistent with the well-known '1500-year climatic cycle'. Statistical analyses revealed that AMOC variability (probably specifically the variability in AMOC-driven bottom-water temperature) is correlated with deep-sea biodiversity. Main conclusions Our finding of a significant AMOC-diversity relationship may indicate pervasive control of the diversity of deep-sea benthic species by rapidly changing climate, specifically bottom-water temperature, over decadal to centennial time-scales. Our results, based on highly resolved fossil records, may portend pervasive, synchronous and sudden ecosystem responses to human-induced changes to climate and ocean circulation in this century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After clarifying the relationship between the closely related concepts of ecology and epidemiology as they are used in plant virology, this article provides a historical perspective on the subject before discussing recent progress and future prospects. Ecology focuses on virus populations interacting with host populations within a variable environment, while epidemiology focuses on the complex association between virus and host plant, and factors that influence spread. The evolution and growth of plant virus ecology and epidemiology since its inception to the present day, and the major milestones in its development, are illustrated by examples from influential historical reviews published in the Annals of Applied Biology over the last 100 years. Original research papers published in the journal are used to illustrate important ecological and epidemiological principles and new developments in both fields. Both areas are multifaceted with many factors influencing host plants, and virus and vector behaviour. The highly diverse scenarios that arise from this process influence the virus population and the spatiotemporal dynamics of virus distribution and spread. The review then describes exciting progress in research in the areas of molecular epidemiology and ecology, and understanding virus-vector interactions. Application of new molecular techniques has greatly accelerated the rate of progress in understanding virus populations and the way changes in these populations influence epidemics. Viruses cause direct and plant-mediated indirect effects on insect vectors by modifying their life cycles, fitness and behaviour, and one of the most fascinating recent fields of research concerns plant-mediated indirect virus manipulation of insect vector behaviour that encourages virus spread. Next, the review describes the current state of knowledge about spread of plant viruses at the critical agro-ecological interface between managed and natural vegetation. There is an urgent need to understand how viruses move in both directions between the two and be able to anticipate these kinds of events. To obtain an understanding of, and ability to foresee, such events will require a major research effort into the future. The review finishes by discussing the implications of climate change and rapid technological innovation for the types of research needed to avoid virus threats to future world food supplies and plant biodiversity. There has been lamentably little focus on research to determine the magnitude of the threat from diseases caused in diverse plant virus pathosystems under different climate change scenarios. Increasing technological innovation offers many opportunities to help ensure this situation is addressed, and provide plant virus ecology and epidemiology with a very exciting future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim In contrast to the attention given to southern Europe both as a centre of speciation and differentiation and as a Pleistocene refugium of Western Palaearctic taxa, North Africa has been relatively neglected. In this paper, we set out to address this shortfall. Location North-West Africa and the Mediterranean. Methods We reviewed the existing literature on the biogeography of North Africa, and carried out analyses of species distribution data using parsimony, nestedness and co-occurrence methods. Results In many cases, distribution patterns of non-flying mammals, bats, amphibians, reptiles, butterflies, zygaenid moths and odonates demonstrated important biogeographical affinities between Europe and North Africa at the species level. On the other hand, species co-occurrence, nestedness and parsimony analysis also revealed some deep splits between the Maghreb and Europe; yet even in these cases the closest affinities were found between the Iberian Peninsula and the Maghreb. Furthermore, North Africa harbours the highest proportion of endemic taxa (13.7%) across all groups analysed. Many molecular studies demonstrated a strong genetic cohesiveness between North Africa and Europe despite the potential barrier effect of the Mediterranean Sea. In other taxa, however, remarkable splits were detected. In addition, southern European genetic lineages were often nested within North African clades, and many taxa showed exceptionally high genetic variability and differentiation in this region. Main conclusions The Maghreb was an important differentiation and speciation centre for thermophilic organisms during the Pliocene and Pleistocene with high relevance as a colonization source for Europe. The regions around the sea straits of Gibraltar and Sicily have acted as important biogeographical links between North Africa and Europe at different times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors discuss the paper of Qi and colleagues which focuses on the response of relict genus Cercidiphyllum to climatic or geological changes using genetic information from chloroplast (cp) and nuclear DNAs. They mention that Qi and colleagues who used ecological niche modelling (ENM) estimated that the specie split from its sister lineage during late Cretaceous period based on cpDNA evidence. They state that the paper draws detailed pictured o the evolutionary history of Cercidiphyllum.

Aim Species distribution models have been widely used to tackle ecological, evolutionary and conservation problems. Most species distribution modelling techniques produce continuous suitability predictions, but many real applications (e.g. reserve design, species invasion and climate change impact assessment) and model evaluations require binary outputs, and thresholds are needed for these transformations. Although there are many threshold selection methods for presence/absence data, it is unclear whether these are suitable for presence-only data. In this paper, we investigate mathematically and empirically which of the existing threshold selection methods can be used confidently with presence-only data. Location We used real spatially explicit environmental data derived from the western part of the state of Victoria, south-eastern Australia, and simulated species distributions within this area. Methods Thirteen existing threshold selection methods were investigated mathematically to see whether the same threshold can be produced using either presence/absence data or presence-only data. We further adopted a simulation approach, created many virtual species with differing prevalences in a real landscape in south-eastern Australia, generated data sets with different proportions of pseudo-absences, built eight types of models with four modelling techniques, and investigated the behaviours of four threshold selection methods in these situations. Results Three threshold selection methods were not affected by pseudo-absences, including max SSS (which is based on maximizing the sum of sensitivity and specificity), the prevalence of model training data and the mean predicted value of a set of random points. Max SSS produced higher sensitivity in most cases and higher true skill statistic and kappa in many cases than the other methods. The other methods produced different thresholds from presence-only data to those determined from presence/absence data. Main conclusions Max SSS is a promising method for threshold selection when only presence data are available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and habitat loss are both key threatening processes driving the global loss in biodiversity. Yet little is known about their synergistic effects on biological populations due to the complexity underlying both processes. If the combined effects of habitat loss and climate change are greater than the effects of each threat individually, current conservation management strategies may be inefficient and at worst ineffective. Therefore, there is a pressing need to identify whether interacting effects between climate change and habitat loss exist and, if so, quantify the magnitude of their impact. In this article, we present a meta-analysis of studies that quantify the effect of habitat loss on biological populations and examine whether the magnitude of these effects depends on current climatic conditions and historical rates of climate change. We examined 1319 papers on habitat loss and fragmentation, identified from the past 20 years, representing a range of taxa, landscapes, land-uses, geographic locations and climatic conditions. We find that current climate and climate change are important factors determining the negative effects of habitat loss on species density and/or diversity. The most important determinant of habitat loss and fragmentation effects, averaged across species and geographic regions, was current maximum temperature, with mean precipitation change over the last 100 years of secondary importance. Habitat loss and fragmentation effects were greatest in areas with high maximum temperatures. Conversely, they were lowest in areas where average rainfall has increased over time. To our knowledge, this is the first study to conduct a global terrestrial analysis of existing data to quantify and test for interacting effects between current climate, climatic change and habitat loss on biological populations. Understanding the synergistic effects between climate change and other threatening processes has critical implications for our ability to support and incorporate climate change adaptation measures into policy development and management response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim This paper identifies socio-economic driving forces of biodiversity change and analyses their political and economic dynamics by modelling socio-economic parts of three scenario storylines developed for the ALARM (assessing large-scale risks for biodiversity with tested methods) project. In the BAMBU (business-as-might-be-usual) scenario policy decisions already made in the European Union (EU) are implemented and enforced, but no additional measures are introduced. The GRAS (growth applied strategy) scenario describes a future world orientated towards economic growth and complete deregulation. And finally, SEDG (sustainable European development goal) is a normative scenario focusing on the achievement of sustainable development. Methods The GINFORS (global inter-industry forecasting system) model is applied to quantify the effects of different sets of policy measures representing the three scenarios. It allows investigation of the inter-relations between socio-economic driving forces and the state of the environment. Results The presented results for the 25 EU countries focus on the following variables: unemployment, material extraction, energy supply and CO2 emissions. The lowest amount of unemployment is in the SEDG scenario, where it steadily decreases from 2005 to 2020. In BAMBU it falls to a level that is also below that of 2005. In GRAS, the number of unemployed people in 2020 is clearly over the value of 2005. The development of total material extraction from 2005 to 2020 is nearly stable in BAMBU, while it clearly increases in GRAS. Only in SEDG is there a reduction in resource use. None of the scenarios achieves a substantial reduction in energy use. However, the development of CO2 emissions shows a decoupling from energy supply. For BAMBU there is a slight decline in CO2 emissions over time, for GRAS they increase but with a slightly smaller growth rate than energy supply. In SEDG the emissions are reduced. The decoupling trends can be explained by a shift to more renewable energy sources in all scenarios, with the highest share in SEDG. Main conclusions The results indicate that a growth-oriented policy design, such as presented in the GRAS scenario, is not compatible with the conservation of biodiversity. Only in the SEDG scenario do the policy measures support the idea of a sustainable development, but in some respects they are still not ambitious enough. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humid tropical alpine environments are crucial ecosystems that sustain biodiversity, biological processes, carbon storage and surface water provision. They are identified as one of the terrestrial ecosystems most vulnerable to global environmental change. Despite their vulnerability, and the importance for regional biodiversity conservation and socio-economic development, they are among the least studied and described ecosystems in the world. This paper reviews the state of knowledge about tropical alpine environments, and provides an integrated assessment of the potential threats of global climate change on the major ecosystem processes. Humid tropical alpine regions occur between the upper forest line and the perennial snow border in the upper regions of the Andes, the Afroalpine belt and Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. Climate change will displace ecosystem boundaries and strongly reduce the total area of tropical alpine regions. Displacement and increased isolation of the remaining patches will induce species extinction and biodiversity loss. Drier and warmer soil conditions will cause a faster organic carbon turnover, decreasing the below-ground organic carbon storage. Since most of the organic carbon is currently stored in the soils, it is unlikely that an increase in above-ground biomass will be able to offset soil carbon loss at an ecosystem level. Therefore a net release of carbon to the atmosphere is expected. Changes in precipitation patterns, increased evapotranspiration and alterations of the soil properties will have a major impact on water supply. Many regions are in danger of a significantly reduced or less reliable stream flow. The magnitude and even the trend of most of these effects depend strongly on local climatic, hydrological and ecological conditions. The extreme spatial gradients in these conditions put the sustainability of ecosystem management at risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity inventories are not yet complete, with potentially thousands of species unknown to science. This paper aims to (1) elucidate the historical discovery rate of endemic southern African marine fishes and (2) to estimate the number of potentially undescribed endemic marine fishes in the region using a statistical model and which factors (e.g. size/depth) contribute to unknown diversity. Thirdly, all species described globally for eight families (Blennidae, Clinidae, Gobiidae, Lutjanidae, Rajidae, Sciaenidae, Scyliorhinidae, Sparidae) were analysed to elucidate unknown diversity in these groups. The oceans of southern Africa, including Namibia, South Africa and Mozambique, encompassing sections of the south-eastern Atlantic Ocean and the western Indian Ocean. Literature surveys from a number of sources were carried out to compile lists of species descriptions from 1758 onwards. Species-accumulation curves were plotted for all endemic species, as well as for different components of size and depth. A maximum likelihood model was used to estimate the number of undescribed endemic marine fishes in southern Africa, as well as for all other categories, including global families. Fish discovery rates in southern Africa have varied with time. Estimates suggest that at least 25% of the total endemic fish fauna remain unknown and that size is the greatest predictor of whether a fish has been described. Smaller-sized fishes and those inhabiting shallow areas are most likely to be undersampled. It is likely that most undescribed fishes inhabit the subtropical/tropical waters of the east coast. At the current rate of fish description, it will take at least 50 years to describe the total endemic fish fauna. However, estimates of unknown species are probably higher because of cryptic species within currently recognized taxa. Climate change may also contribute to range expansions of marine species, further complicating the status of endemicity in southern African marine fishes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicted climate change in the Andes will require plant species to migrate upslope to avoid extinction. Central to predictions of species responses to climate change is an understanding of species distributions along environmental gradients. Environmental gradients are frequently modelled as abiotic, but biotic interactions can play important roles in setting species distributions, abundances, and life history traits. Biotic interactions also have the potential to influence species responses to climate change, yet they remain mostly unquantified. An important interaction long studied in tropical forests is postdispersal seed predation which has been shown to affect the population dynamics, community structure, and diversity of plant species in time and space. This paper presents a comparative seed predation study of 24 species of tropical trees across a 2.5 km elevation gradient in the Peruvian Andes and quantifies seed predation variation across the elevational gradient. We then use demographic modelling to assess effects of the observed variation in seed predation on population growth rates in response to observed increasing temperatures in the area. We found marked variation among species in total seed predation depending on the major seed predator of the species and consistent changes in seed predation across the gradient. There was a significant increase in seed survival with increasing elevation, a trend that appears to be driven by regulation of seed predators via top-down forces in the lowlands giving way to bottom-up (productivity) regulation at mid- to high elevations, resulting in a ninefold increase in effective fecundity for trees at high elevations. This potential increase in seed crop size strongly affects modelled plant population growth and seed dispersal distances, increasing population migration potential in the face of climate change. These results also indicate that species interactions can have effects on par with climate in species responses to global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the influence of climate variability and change on the environment was studied over southern Africa using ground-based and remotely sensed data. A time series analysis of rainfall and temperature anomalies indicated that there was a high rainfall and temperature variability in the region. The influence of global teleconnections on rainfall patterns over southern Africa showed that in some areas there was a spatial variation in their strength, increasing from west to east. Maps of NDVI, from 1982 to 2004, showed that changes in vegetation cover were more apparent during the dry season than during the wet season. The study also revealed that climate variability and change are linked to decreasing rainfall and hence, decreasing regional water resources and biodiversity and increasing environmental degradation. With the regional population expected increase, this depletion of resources poses the greatest regional environmental challenge to humankind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is already threatening the long-term viability of many important protected areas, and as global warming accelerates this will increase. Lowered water tables, melting permafrost, changing vegetation zones, combined with the fragmentary distribution of wilderness areas, will cause a wave of local extinctions as species fail to adapt to changing conditions in time or fail to move as climate zones advance across the face of the continents. Ecologists can predict and even model likely scenarios, but can we do anything to help safeguard valuable biodiversity or must we passively document Earth's changes and accept these losses? Studies of the extraordinary species richness of the Hengduan Mountains and the Qionglai Mountain ranges of South-West China and of the Changbaishan Mountains in North-East China give us some optimism. This paper provides an explanation for the high species richness in these ranges and identifies design principles that can be used in the selection of protected areas or in the revision of existing protected area boundaries to enhance their ecological resilience and allow them to maintain higher levels of biological diversity under conditions of climate change or other disturbance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change is an important cause of biodiversity loss. The conservation, sustainable management and use of biodiversity resources are key factors that can be effectively used to minimize the adverse impacts of global climate change. Efforts to understand and address the linkages between global climate change and biodiversity loss are both urgent and timely. Integrating responses related to these two global environmental challenges is especially relevant for small island developing States (SIDS) because the adverse impacts of climate change can impose severe stresses on biodiversity resources that are fragile, vulnerable and already under stress and the people who depend upon them. This paper argues that comprehensive assessments of adverse impacts of global climate change on the biodiversity resources of SIDS, and an improved understanding of relevant climate change related adaptation measures and sustainable energy policies (that are based on the principles of conservation, sustainable management and use of biodiversity resources) will enable SIDS to become more resilient and to develop better response capacities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) is a major custodian of one of the ocean's major natural resources: tuna. The commercial tuna fisheries sector is the most important economic sector in the RMI and is thus a substantial contributor to this tiny island nation's GDP. Tuna catch and its associated revenues has fluctuated in line with climatic events such as the El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and, in the last decade, national fisheries development policies have begun to capitalize on the positive effects that ENSO warm events have had on the tuna populations. However, global warming is expected to have a significant impact on ENSO, and not necessarily in positive ways. This paper will focus on the relationship between environment and economic development in the RMI fisheries sector. In particular, the linkages between global warming and its effects on the tuna fisheries sector must be better understood and uncertainties accounted for so that impacts are appropriately addressed and integrated into sustainable fisheries development policies. Conclusions reached are that new fisheries development strategies that emphasize environmental-based planning are required. The emerging ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management is a start, as are the various international initiatives in furthering our understanding of the linkages between climate and ocean systems currently underway. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Species richness depends on climate and land use. Maintaining locations with favourable climate and land-use patterns is critical for protecting biodiversity because the loss of either can reduce the species richness that an area supports. Currently, the Guiana Shield (GS) receives abundant precipitation and has relatively light land use. For species richness this constitutes a good–good combination of climate and land use, respectively. In contrast, much of eastern Brazil receives low levels of precipitation and has heavy land use, which is a bad–bad combination for species richness. Thus, the current distribution of precipitation and land use in northern South America is relatively favourable for biodiversity. Palaeoclimate and model studies suggest, however, that the precipitation patterns for the two regions have switched before and could switch in response to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper examines the potential consequences of reconfiguring climate with respect to existing land-use patterns using South America as an example. Location South America north of 20° S and east of the Andes. Methods Ecosystem structure and function are modelled under (1) historical climate and (2) altered precipitation following a shift in the location of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The distribution of precipitation, biomes, net primary productivity (NPP) and land use are then used to predict levels of species richness under the two climate scenarios. Results Climate changes could shift the distribution of vegetation and NPP such that conditions favourable for species richness in the GS region disappear. If land-use patterns were not prohibitive in eastern Brazil, the improved climate conditions there could compensate for the GS loss (assuming migratory barriers are overcome). Instead, existing land-use patterns cause the combined species richness projected for the two regions to plummet. Main conclusions Human activities will alter current configurations of land use and climate throughout the world. For species richness, new configurations are likely to include both positive and negative combinations of climate and land use. However, the irreversibility of past extinctions due to land-use patterns loads the dice against species richness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral reefs have suffered long-term decline due to a range of anthropogenic disturbances and are now also under threat from climate change. For appropriate management of these vulnerable and valuable ecosystems it is important to understand the factors and processes that determine their resilience and that of the organisms inhabiting them, as well as those that have led to existing patterns of coral reef biodiversity. The scleractinian (stony) corals deposit the structural framework that supports and promotes the maintenance of biological diversity and complexity of coral reefs, and as such, are major components of these ecosystems. The success of reef-building corals is related to their obligate symbiotic association with dinoflagellates of the genus Symbiodinium. These one-celled algal symbionts (zooxanthellae) live in the endodermal tissues of their coral host, provide most of the host's energy budget and promote rapid calcification. Furthermore, zooxanthellae are the main primary producers on coral reefs due to the oligotrophic nature of the surrounding waters. In this review paper, we summarize and critically evaluate studies that have employed genetics and/or molecular biology in examining questions relating to the evolution and ecology of reef-building corals and their algal endosymbionts, and that bear relevance to coral reef conservation. We discuss how these studies can focus future efforts, and examine how these approaches enhance our understanding of the resilience of reef-building corals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The developing nations of southern Africa have previously been identified as vulnerable to the vagaries of global change, particularly in terms of future climate change. This paper explores recent climate change scenarios for the region in terms of some representative sectors of the environment-society interface, namely biodiversity, agriculture and related land uses, water resources and health issues. It is concluded that the impacts of predicted climate changes over the next century are likely to be very marked indeed. Biome distribution, agriculture, rangelands and water resources are highlighted as being negatively impacted in ways that will increase the vulnerability of the great majority of the region's population to natural hazards. The potential impact of these changes on the prolific biodiversity of southern Africa is clear. Holistic policy responses, incorporating both environmental and human development concerns, are required in the near future if a crisis is to be averted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]