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Pottery, bone implements, and stone tools are routinely found at Neolithic sites. However, the integrity of textiles or silk is susceptible to degradation, and it is therefore very difficult for such materials to be preserved for 8,000 years. Although previous studies have provided important evidence of the emergence of weaving skills and tools, such as figuline spinning wheels and osseous lamellas with traces of filament winding, there is a lack of direct evidence proving the existence of silk. In this paper, we explored evidence of prehistoric silk fibroin through the analysis of soil samples collected from three tombs at the Neolithic site of Jiahu. Mass spectrometry was employed and integrated with proteomics to characterize the key peptides of silk fibroin. The direct biomolecular evidence reported here showed the existence of prehistoric silk fibroin, which was found in 8,500-year-old tombs. Rough weaving tools and bone needles were also excavated, indicating the possibility that the Jiahu residents may possess the basic weaving and sewing skills in making textile. This finding may advance the study of the history of silk, and the civilization of the Neolithic Age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil sealing (loss of soil resources due to extensive land covering for the purpose of house building, road construction etc.) and subsequent soil landscape pattern changes constitute typical environmental problems in many places worldwide. Previous studies concentrated on soil sealing in urbanized regions, whereas rural areas have not been given sufficient attention. Accordingly, this paper studies soil landscape pattern dynamics (i.e., landscape pattern changes in response to rural anthropogenic activities) in the Tiaoxi watershed (Zhejiang province, eastern China), in which surface sealing is by far the predominant component of human forcing with respect to environmental change. A novel approach of quantifying the impacts of rural anthropogenic activities on soil resources is presented. Specifically, quantitative relationships were derived between five soil landscape pattern metrics (patch density, edge density, shape index, Shannon’s diversity index and aggregation index) and three rural anthropogenic activity indicators (anthropogenic activity intensity, distance to towns, and distance to roads) at two landscape block scales (3 and 5 km) between 1985 and 2010. The results showed that the Tiaoxi watershed experienced extensive rural settlement expansion and high rates of soil sealing. Soil landscapes became more fragmented, more irregular, more isolated, and less diverse. Relationships between soil landscape pattern changes and rural anthropogenic activities differed with the scale (spatial and temporal) and variable considered. In particular, the anthropogenic activity intensity was found to be the most important indicator explaining social development intensity, whereas the other two proximity indicators had a significant impact at certain temporal interval. In combination with scale effects, spatial dependency (correlation) was shown to play a key role that should be carefully taken into consideration in any relevant environmental study. Overall, the findings of this work suggest that soil sealing can be a critical human forcing issue with considerable consequences deserving serious attention by the experts, the public and the government alike. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluating the assessing results’ rationality for farmland quality (FQ) is usually qualitative and based on farmers and experts’ perceptions of soil quality and crop yield. Its quantitative checking still remains difficult and is likely ignored. In this paper, FQ in Xiuwu County, the Northwest Henan Province, China was evaluated by the gray relational analysis (GRA) method and the traditional analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. The consistency rate of two results was analysed. Research focused on proposing one method of testing the evaluation results’ rationality for FQ based on the crop yield. Firstly generating a grade map of crop yield and overlying it with the FQ evaluation maps. Then analysing their consistency rate for each grade in the same spatial position. Finally examining the consistency effects and allowing for a decision on adopting the results. The results showed that the area rate consistency and matching evaluation unit numbers between the two methods were 84.68% and 87.29%, respectively, and the space distribution was approximately equal. The area consistency rates between crop yield level and FQ evaluation levels by GRA and AHP were 78.15% and 74.29%, respectively. Therefore, the verifying effects of GRA and AHP were near, good and acceptable, and the FQ results from both could reflect the crop yield levels. The evaluation results by GCA, as a whole, were slightly more rational than that by AHP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pigs have played a major role in the economic, social and symbolic systems of China since the Early Neolithic more than 8,000 years ago. However, the interaction between the history of pig domestication and transformations in Chinese society since then, have not been fully explored. In this paper, we investigated the co-evolution from the earliest farming communities through to the new political and economic models of state-like societies, up to the Chinese Empire, using 5,000 years of archaeological records from the Xiawanggang (XWG) and Xinzhai (XZ) sites (Henan Province). To trace the changes of pig populations against husbandry practices, we combined the geometric morphometric analysis of dental traits with a study of the stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios from bone collagen. The domestication process intensified during the Neolithic Yangshao, prompted by greater selective pressure and/or better herd control against wild introgression. After that, pig farming, in XWG, relied on local livestock and a gradual change of husbandry practices overtime. This was characterized by a gentle increase in millet foddering and animal protein intake, until a complete change over to household management during the Han dynasty. The only rupture in this steady trend of husbandry occurred during the Longshan period, with the appearance of small sized and idiosyncratic pigs with specific feeding practices (relying on millet and household scraps). From three exploratory hypothesis, we explored the possibility of anti-elite pig production in XWG during the Longshan period, as a means to resist incorporation into a new economic model promoting intensified domestic production. This exploratory hypothesis is the most suitable to our dataset; however, numerous areas need to be explored further in order to adequately document the role of pigs in the rise of China’s complex societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetlands are one of the most critical resources in Inner Mongolia Plateau. However, the region has experienced severe wetland loss in the context of global change. To quantify the dynamic change and the related driving forces, we extracted wetland information using multi-temporal Landsat images between 1993 and 2013 using ArcGIS platform and man-machine interactive interpretation. Dynamically changing characteristics for the past 20 years were analyzed, including wetland types and spatial distribution patterns of the wetlands in Inner Mongolia. We also performed correlation analysis and generalized linear models to quantify the contribution of natural and human factors to the changes in natural wetland area. Our results indicated that the total area of wetlands was 42421.2 km2 in 1993, and decreased to 38912.4 km2 in 2013, a decline ratio of 8.3%. Meanwhile, all types of wetlands showed a trend of transformation into non-wetlands. Anthropogenic factors led to the loss of natural wetlands in Inner Mongolia. In grasslands, mining coal was the dominant driver for natural wetland loss, while in arable lands, agricultural encroachment and irrigation were the primary driving forces. These findings can provide meaningful information for improving sustainable wetlands management strategies according to local conditions in different sub-regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of environmental change on internal migration has received wide attention in recent years. Mass internal migration has been a significant economic and social phenomenon in China, and soil erosion is a major environmental problem that impacts sustainable socioeconomic development. This study aims to identify the impact of soil erosion on internal migration in China at the county level based on gravity model by analyzing related data, such as the sixth national population census data and the soil and water conservation survey data. The results of spatial overlay could not identify an obvious relationship between soil erosion and net outmigration in China. The traditional gravity model of migration is modified to analyze the impact of soil erosion on net outmigration while other variables are controlled. The results indicate that only serious soil erosion increases the possibility of outmigration and that the impact is considerably higher in agricultural counties than in non-agricultural counties. In general, the impact of soil erosion on internal migration is far less than the impact of socioeconomic factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China harbors diversified forest types, from tropical rainforest to boreal coniferous forest, and has implemented large-scale reforestation/afforestation programs over the past several decades. However, little information is available on changes in China’s forest area and the causes. In this study, we used the classified forest distribution thematic map derived from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets and a revised IPAT model to examine China’s forest area change and the possible driving factors from 1982 to 2006. Overall, NDVI-derived forest areas were numerically consistent with those reported in the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th National Forest Inventories, respectively. Over the past 25 years, China’s forest area was estimated to have an average of 169.18 million hectares with an annual increase of 0.15 million hectares (c.a. a total net increment of 3.60 million hectares), which is equivalent to 0.089% of the relative annual change rate. However, a large difference in the changing rate and direction of forest area at the province level was found; for instance, forest area has declined in 10 provinces, mainly in Northeastern and Southern China, while 21 provinces showed an increase. The changes were most likely attributed to the policy regarding the import and export of timber and affluence (per capita gross domestic product), and both contributed more than 80% of the total contribution of the six factors of the revised IPAT model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North China Plain is one of the most important grain production regions in China, but is facing serious water shortages. To achieve a balance between water use and the need for food self-sufficiency, new water efficient irrigation strategies need to be developed that balance water use with farmer net return. The Crop Environment Resource Synthesis Wheat (CERES-Wheat model) was calibrated and evaluated with two years of data which consisted of 3–4 irrigation treatments, and the model was used to investigate long-term winter wheat productivity and water use from irrigation management in the North China Plain. The calibrated model simulated accurately above-ground biomass, grain yield and evapotranspiration of winter wheat in response to irrigation management. The calibrated model was then run using weather data from 1994–2016 in order to evaluate different irrigation strategies. The simulated results using historical weather data showed that grain yield and water use was sensitive to different irrigation strategies including amounts and dates of irrigation applications. The model simulated the highest yield when irrigation was applied at jointing (T9) in normal and dry rainfall years, and gave the highest simulated yields for irrigation at double ridge (T8) in wet years. A single simulated irrigation at jointing (T9) produced yields that were 88% compared to using a double irrigation treatment at T1 and T9 in wet years, 86% of that in normal years, and 91% of that in dry years. A single irrigation at jointing or double ridge produced higher water use efficiency because it obtained higher evapotranspiration. The simulated farmer irrigation practices produced the highest yield and net income. When the cost of water was taken into account, limited irrigation was found to be more profitable based on assumptions about future water costs. In order to increase farmer income, a subsidy will likely be needed to compensate farmers for yield reductions due to water savings. These results showed that there is a cost to the farmer for water conservation, but limiting irrigation to a single irrigation at jointing would minimize impact on farmer net return in North China Plain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall patterns and land cover are two important factors that affect the runoff generation process. To determine the surface and subsurface flows associated with different rainfall patterns on sloping Ferralsols under different land cover types, observational data related to surface and subsurface flows from 5 m × 15 m plots were collected from 2010 to 2012. The experiment was conducted to assess three land cover types (grass, litter cover and bare land) in the Jiangxi Provincial Soil and Water Conservation Ecological Park. During the study period, 114 natural rainfall events produced subsurface flow and were divided into four groups using k-means clustering according to rainfall duration, rainfall depth and maximum 30-min rainfall intensity. The results showed that the total runoff and surface flow values were highest for bare land under all four rainfall patterns and lowest for the covered plots. However, covered plots generated higher subsurface flow values than bare land. Moreover, the surface and subsurface flows associated with the three land cover types differed significantly under different rainfall patterns. Rainfall patterns with low intensities and long durations created more subsurface flow in the grass and litter cover types, whereas rainfall patterns with high intensities and short durations resulted in greater surface flow over bare land. Rainfall pattern I had the highest surface and subsurface flow values for the grass cover and litter cover types. The highest surface flow value and lowest subsurface flow value for bare land occurred under rainfall pattern IV. Rainfall pattern II generated the highest subsurface flow value for bare land. Therefore, grass or litter cover are able to convert more surface flow into subsurface flow under different rainfall patterns. The rainfall patterns studied had greater effects on subsurface flow than on total runoff and surface flow for covered surfaces, as well as a greater effect on surface flows associated with bare land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bottom trawling is one of the most efficient fishing activities, but serious and persistent ecological issues have been observed by fishers, scientists and fishery managers. Although China has applied the Beidou fishing vessel position monitoring system (VMS) to manage trawlers since 2006, little is known regarding the impacts of trawling on the sea bottom environments. In this study, continuous VMS data of the 1403 single-rig otter trawlers registered in the Xiangshan Port, 3.9% of the total trawlers in China, were used to map the trawling effort in 2013. We used the accumulated distance (AD), accumulated power distance (APD), and trawling intensity as indexes to express the trawling efforts in the Yellow Sea (YS) and East China Sea (ECS). Our results show that all three indexes had similar patterns in the YS and ECS, and indicated a higher fishing effort of fishing grounds that were near the port. On average, the seabed was trawled 0.73 times in 2013 over the entire fishing region, and 51.38% of the total fishing grounds were with no fishing activities. Because of VMS data from only a small proportion of Chinese trawlers was calculated fishing intensity, more VMS data is required to illustrate the overall trawling effort in China seas. Our results enable fishery managers to identify the distribution of bottom trawling activities in the YS and ECS, and hence to make effective fishery policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Panax notoginseng (Burk.) F.H. Chen, called Sanqi in China, is a perennial herb that has been used as a medicinal herb in traditional Chinese medicine for more than 400 years. Because notoginseng is included in many proprietary Chinese medicines, the quality of notoginseng directly affects its efficacy and safety. However, considering the complex and special growth environment requirements of notoginseng, it is insufficient to evaluate its quality based solely on the analysis of marker chemicals. Thus, in this study, we tried to evaluate the quality of notoginseng with integrated indicators: (1) the concentration of five marker chemicals, notoginsenoside R1, ginsenoside Rg1, ginsenoside Re, ginsenoside Rb1 and ginsenoside Rd; (2) the anticoagulant activity (ACA); and (3) twenty-one ecological factors (e.g., longitude, latitude, elevation and soil data). Using these 27 parameters, notoginseng from different regions could be distinguished effectively, indicating a remarkable divergence of quality. A correlation analysis showed that variations of the ecological factors were closely associated with the saponins content and biopotency. For instance, the total nitrogen (TN), alkali hydrolysis nitrogen (AHN) and rapidly available potassium (RAPT) were significantly correlated with ACA, and RAPT was significantly correlated with the content of ginsenoside Rd and notoginsenoside R1. The results demonstrated that the high-quality notoginseng was produced from the emerging regions such as Kunming, Qujing and Honghe, which had higher ACA and saponin content than the notoginseng produced in traditional regions such as Wenshan and Baise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mulching and nitrogen are critical drivers of crop production for smallholders of the Loess Plateau in China. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of mulching and nitrogen fertilizer on the soil water content, soil nitrate-N content and vertical distribution in maize root-zone. The experiment was conducted over two consecutive years and used randomly assigned field plots with three replicates. The six treatments consisted of no fertilizer without plastic film (CK), plastic film mulching with no basal fertilizer and no top dressing (MN0), basal fertilizer with no top dressing and no mulching (BN1), plastic film mulching and basal fertilizer with no top dressing (MN1), basal fertilizer and top dressing with no mulching (BN2) and plastic film mulching with basal fertilizer and top dressing (MN2). In the top soil layers, the soil water content was a little high in the plastic film mulching than that without mulching. The mean soil water content from 0 to 40 cm without mulching were 3.35% lower than those measured in the corresponding mulching treatments in 31 days after sowing in 2012. The mulching treatment increased the soil nitrate-N content was observed in the 0–40-cm soil layers. The results indicate that high contents of soil nitrate-N were mainly distributed at 0–20-cm at 31 days after sowing in 2012, and the soil nitrate-N concentration in the MN2 treatment was 1.58 times higher than that did not receive fertilizer. The MN2 treatment greatly increased the soil nitrate-N content in the upper layer of soil (0–40-cm), and the mean soil nitrate-N content was increased nearly 50 mg kg−1 at 105 days after sowing compared with CK treatment in 2012. The soil nitrate-N leaching amount in MN1 treatment was 28.61% and 39.14% lower than BN1 treatment, and the mulch effect attained to 42.55% and 65.27% in MN2 lower than BN2 in both years. The yield increased with an increase in the basal fertilizer, top dressing and plastic film mulching, and the grain yield increase ranged from 31.41% to 83.61% in two consecutive years. The MN1 and MN2 treatment is recommended because it increased the grain yield and improved the fertilizer use efficiency, compared with the no-mulching treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of cultivar mixture cropping on yield, biomass, and water use efficiency (WUE) in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) were investigated under non-irrigation (W0, no irrigation during growth stage), one time irrigation (W1, irrigation applied at stem elongation) and two times irrigation (W2, irrigation applied at stem elongation and anthesis) conditions. Nearly 90% of cultivar mixture cropping treatments experienced an increase in grain yield as compared with the mean of the pure stands under W0, those for W1 and W2 were 80% and 85%, respectively. Over 75% of cultivar mixture cropping treatments got greater biomass than the mean of the pure stands under the three irrigation conditions. Cultivar mixture cropping cost more water than pure stands under W0 and W1, whereas the water consumption under W2 decreased by 5.9%–6.8% as compared with pure stands. Approximately 90% of cultivar mixtures showed an increase of 5.4%–34.5% in WUE as compared with the mean of the pure stands, and about 75% of cultivar mixtures had 0.8%–28.5% higher WUE than the better pure stands under W0. Similarly, there were a majority of mixture cropping treatments with higher WUE than the mean and the better one of the pure stands under W1 and W2. On the whole, proper cultivar mixture cropping could increase yield and WUE, and a higher increase in WUE occurred under limited irrigation condition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrestrial ecosystems greatly contribute to carbon (C) emission reduction targets through photosynthetic C uptake.Net primary production (NPP) represents the amount of atmospheric C fixed by plants and accumulated as biomass. The Three-North Shelterbelt Program (TNSP) zone accounts for more than 40% of China’s landmass. This zone has been the scene of several large-scale ecological restoration efforts since the late 1990s, and has witnessed significant changes in climate and human activities.Assessing the relative roles of different causal factors on NPP variability in TNSP zone is very important for establishing reasonable local policies to realize the emission reduction targets for central government. In this study, we examined the relative roles of drought and land cover conversion(LCC) on inter-annual changes of TNSP zone for 2001–2010. We applied integrated correlation and decomposition analyses to a Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and MODIS land cover dataset. Our results show that the 10-year average NPP within this region was about 420 Tg C. We found that about 60% of total annual NPP over the study area was significantly correlated with SPEI (p<0.05). The LCC-NPP relationship, which is especially evident for forests in the south-central area, indicates that ecological programs have a positive impact on C sequestration in the TNSP zone. Decomposition analysis generally indicated that the contributions of LCC, drought, and other Natural or Anthropogenic activities (ONA) to changes in NPP generally had a consistent distribution pattern for consecutive years. Drought and ONA contributed about 74% and 23% to the total changes in NPP, respectively, and the remaining 3% was attributed to LCC. Our results highlight the importance of rainfall supply on NPP variability in the TNSP zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995–2014) and near future (2015–2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A field micro-plot experiment using nitrogen isotope (15N) labeling was conducted to determine the effects of placement methods (broadcast and band) and N rates (60, 150 and 240 kg ha–1) on the fate of urea-15N in the wheat–soil system in Guangde County of Anhui Province, China. N fertilizer applied in bands increased grain yield by 15% compared with broadcast application. The N fertilizer application rate had a significant effect on grain yield, straw yield and aboveground biomass, as well as on N uptake and N concentration of wheat. The recovery of urea-15N was a little higher for broadcast (34.0–39.0%) than for band treatment (31.2–38.2%). Most of the soil residual N was retained in the 0–20 cm soil layer. At the N rates of 60 and 240 kg ha–1, the residual 15N was higher for band (34.4 and 108.7 kg ha–1, respectively) than for broadcast application (29.6 and 88.4 kg ha–1, respectively). Compared with broadcast treatment, banded placement of N fertilizer decreased the N loss in the wheat–soil system. Band application one time is an alternative N management practice for winter wheat in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Micro-basin tillage is a soil and water conservation practice that requires building individual earth blocks along furrows. In this study, plot experiments were conducted to assess the efficiency of micro-basin tillage on sloping croplands between 2012 and 2013 (5°and 7°). The conceptual, optimal, block interval model was used to design micro-basins which are meant to capture the maximum amount of water per unit area. Results indicated that when compared to the up-down slope tillage, micro-basin tillage could increase soil water content and maize yield by about 45% and 17%, and reduce runoff, sediment and nutrients loads by about 63%, 96% and 86%, respectively. Meanwhile, micro-basin tillage could reduce the peak runoff rates and delay the initial runoff-yielding time. In addition, micro-basin tillage with the optimal block interval proved to be the best one among all treatments with different intervals. Compared with treatments of other block intervals, the optimal block interval treatments increased soil moisture by around 10% and reduced runoff rate by around 15%. In general, micro-basin tillage with optimal block interval represents an effective soil and water conservation practice for sloping farmland of the black soil region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aphis gossypii Glover (Hemiptera: Aphididae) is a serious pest of cotton in northern China. A microsatellite analysis was used to characterize the genetic structure of A. gossypii populations from different geographic, host plant, and seasonal populations in 2014. Among 906 individuals, 507 multilocus genotypes were identified, with genotypic richness values of 0.07–1.00 for the populations. We observed moderate levels of genetic differentiation among geographic populations (FST = 0.103; 95% confidence interval: 0.065–0.145) and host plant populations (FST = 0.237; 95% confidence interval: 0.187–0.296). A Mantel test of isolation by distance revealed no significant correlations between Slatkin’s linearized FST and the natural logarithm of geographic distance. A Bayesian analysis of population genetic structures identified three clusters. An analysis of molecular variance revealed significant differences among the three clusters (F = 0.26596, P < 0.0001), among seasons (F = 0.04244, P = 0.00381), and among host populations (F = 0.12975, P = 0.0029). Thus, the A. gossypii populations in northern China exhibit considerable genotypic diversity. Additionally, our findings indicated that the 31 analyzed populations could be classified as one of three host biotypes (i.e., cotton, cucumber, and pomegranate biotypes). There were also clear seasonal effects on population genetic structure diversity among aphids collected from Anyang. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil cadmium (Cd) contamination has attracted a great deal of attention because of its detrimental effects on animals and humans. This study aimed to develop and compare the performances of stepwise linear regression (SLR), classification and regression tree (CART) and random forest (RF) models in the prediction and mapping of the spatial distribution of soil Cd and to identify likely sources of Cd accumulation in Fuyang County, eastern China. Soil Cd data from 276 topsoil (0–20 cm) samples were collected and randomly divided into calibration (222 samples) and validation datasets (54 samples). Auxiliary data, including detailed land use information, soil organic matter, soil pH, and topographic data, were incorporated into the models to simulate the soil Cd concentrations and further identify the main factors influencing soil Cd variation. The predictive models for soil Cd concentration exhibited acceptable overall accuracies (72.22% for SLR, 70.37% for CART, and 75.93% for RF). The SLR model exhibited the largest predicted deviation, with a mean error (ME) of 0.074 mg/kg, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.160 mg/kg, and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.274 mg/kg, and the RF model produced the results closest to the observed values, with an ME of 0.002 mg/kg, an MAE of 0.132 mg/kg, and an RMSE of 0.198 mg/kg. The RF model also exhibited the greatest R2 value (0.772). The CART model predictions closely followed, with ME, MAE, RMSE, and R2 values of 0.013 mg/kg, 0.154 mg/kg, 0.230 mg/kg and 0.644, respectively. The three prediction maps generally exhibited similar and realistic spatial patterns of soil Cd contamination. The heavily Cd-affected areas were primarily located in the alluvial valley plain of the Fuchun River and its tributaries because of the dramatic industrialization and urbanization processes that have occurred there. The most important variable for explaining high levels of soil Cd accumulation was the presence of metal smelting industries. The good performance of the RF model was attributable to its ability to handle the non-linear and hierarchical relationships between soil Cd and environmental variables. These results confirm that the RF approach is promising for the prediction and spatial distribution mapping of soil Cd at the regional scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Grain for Green Program (GGP) is the largest afforestation and reforestation project in China in the early part of this century. To assess carbon sequestration in stands under the GGP in Southwest China, the carbon stocks and their annual changes in the GGP stands in the region were estimated based on the following information: (1) collected data on the annually planted area of each tree species under the GGP in Southwest China from 1999 to 2010; (2) development of empirical growth curves and corresponding carbon estimation models for each species growing in the GPP stands; and (3) parameters associated with the stands such as wood density, biomass expansion factor, carbon fraction and the change rate of soil organic carbon content. Two forest management scenarios were examined: scenario A, with no harvesting, and scenario B, with logging at the customary rotation followed by replanting. The results showed that by the years 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 and 2060, the expected carbon storage of the GGP stands in Southwest China is 139.58 TgC, 177.50–207.55 TgC, 196.86–259.65 TgC, 240.45–290.62 TgC and 203.22–310.03 TgC (T = 1012), respectively. For the same years, the expected annual change in carbon stocks is 7.96 TgCyr−1, −7.95–5.95 TgCyr−1, −0.10–4.67 TgCyr−1, 4.31–2.24 TgCyr−1 and −0.02–1.75 TgCyr−1, respectively. This indicates that the stands significantly contribute to forest carbon sinks in this region. In 2060, the estimated carbon stocks in the seven major species of GGP stands in Southwest China are 4.16–13.01 TgC for Pinus armandii, 6.30–15.01 TgC for Pinus massoniana, 11.51–13.44 TgC for Cryptomeria fortunei, 15.94–24.13 TgC for Cunninghamia lanceolata, 28.05 TgC for Cupressus spp., 5.32–15.63 TgC for Populus deltoides and 5.87–14.09 TgC for Eucalyptus spp. The carbon stocks in these seven species account for 36.8%–41.4% of the total carbon stocks in all GGP stands over the next 50 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the validity of the assumption that international large-scale land acquisition (LSLA) is motivated by the desire to secure control over water resources, which is commonly referred to as ‘water grabbing’. This assumption was repeatedly expressed in recent years, ascribing the said motivation to the Gulf States in particular. However, it must be considered of hypothetical nature, as the few global studies conducted so far focused primarily on the effects of LSLA on host countries or on trade in virtual water. In this study, we analyse the effects of 475 intended or concluded land deals recorded in the Land Matrix database on the water balance in both host and investor countries. We also examine how these effects relate to water stress and how they contribute to global trade in virtual water. The analysis shows that implementation of the LSLAs in our sample would result in global water savings based on virtual water trade. At the level of individual LSLA host countries, however, water use intensity would increase, particularly in 15 sub-Saharan states. From an investor country perspective, the analysis reveals that countries often suspected of using LSLA to relieve pressure on their domestic water resources—such as China, India, and all Gulf States except Saudi Arabia—invest in agricultural activities abroad that are less water-intensive compared to their average domestic crop production. Conversely, large investor countries such as the United States, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and Japan are disproportionately externalizing crop water consumption through their international land investments. Statistical analyses also show that host countries with abundant water resources are not per se favoured targets of LSLA. Indeed, further analysis reveals that land investments originating in water-stressed countries have only a weak tendency to target areas with a smaller water risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In China, Zou Zhe (Memorials to the Throne, or Palace Memorials), an official communication to the emperors of China by local officials, offers an opportunity to reconstruct the spatial-temporal distributions of droughts at a high-resolution. A 223-year, 1689–1911, time series of drought events was reconstructed in this study based on 2494 pieces of Zou Zhe. The results show that: 1) on the temporal scale, the drought affected areas, i.e., number of affected counties, showed three peak periods during the last 223 years and nine extreme drought years with more than 300 counties affected have been identified; 2) on the spatial scale, there existed three drought-prone areas in China, i.e., Gansu province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in Northwest China, Shandong, Hebei, and Henan provinces and Tianjin in the North China, and Anhui and Jiangsu provinces in Jianghuai area, respectively; 3) the drought-prone areas have been expanding from North China to South China since the second half of 19th century; 4) on the seasonal scale, summer witnessed the largest number of drought events. Meanwhile, the uncertainties of the results were also discussed, i.e. what caused the spatial-temporal distribution of drought. The results of this study can be used to mitigate the adverse effects of extreme weather events on food increasing and stable production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata [Lamb.] Hook) is one of the most important plantation tree species in China with good timber quality and fast growth. It covers an area of 8.54 million hectare, which corresponds to 21% of the total plantation area and 32% of total plantation volume in China. With the increasing market demand, an accurate estimation and prediction of merchantable volume at tree- and stand-level is becoming important for plantation owners. Although there are many studies on the total tree volume estimation from allometric models, these allometric models cannot predict tree- and stand-level merchantable volume at any merchantable height, and the stand-level merchantable volume model was not seen yet in Chinese fir plantations. This study aimed to develop (1) a compatible taper function for tree-level merchantable volume estimation, and (2) a stand-level merchantable volume model for Chinese fir plantations. This “taper function system” consisted in a taper function, a merchantable volume equation and a total tree volume equation. 46 Chinese fir trees were felled to develop the taper function in Shitai County, Anhui province, China. A second-order continuous autoregressive error structure corrected the inherent serial autocorrelation of different observations in one tree. The taper function and volume equations were fitted simultaneously after autocorrelation correction. The compatible taper function fitted well to our data and had very good performances in diameter and total tree volume prediction. The stand-level merchantable volume equation based on the ratio approach was developed using basal area, dominant height, quadratic mean diameter and top diameter (ranging from 0 to 30 cm) as independent variables. At last, a total stand-level volume table using stand basal area and dominant height as variables was proposed for local forest managers to simplify the stand volume estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface-level ozone pollution causes crop production loss by directly reducing healthy green leaf area available for carbon fixation. Ozone and its precursors also affect crop photosynthesis indirectly by decreasing solar irradiance. Pollutants are reported to have become even more severe in Eastern China over the last ten years. In this study, we investigated the effect of a combination of elevated ozone concentrations and reduced solar irradiance on a popular winter wheat Yangmai13 (Triticum aestivum L.) at field and regional levels in China. Winter wheat was grown in artificial shading and open-top-chamber environments. Treatment 1 (T1, i.e., 60% shading with an enhanced ozone of 100±9 ppb), Treatment 2 (T2, i.e., 20% shading with an enhanced ozone of 100±9 ppb), and Control Check Treatment (CK, i.e., no shading with an enhanced ozone of 100±9 ppb), with two plots under each, were established to investigate the response of winter wheat under elevated ozone concentrations and varying solar irradiance. At the field level, linear temporal relationships between dry matter loss and cumulative stomatal ozone uptake were first established through a parameterized stomatal-flux model. At the regional level, ozone concentrations and meteorological variables, including solar irradiance, were simulated using the WRF-CMAQ model (i.e., a meteorology and air quality modeling system). These variables were then used to estimate cumulative stomatal ozone uptake for the four major winter wheat-growing provinces. The regional-level cumulative ozone uptake was then used as the independent variable in field data-based regression models to predict dry matter loss over space and time. Field-level results showed that over 85% (T1: R2 = 0.85 & T2: R2 = 0.89) of variation in dry matter loss was explained by cumulative ozone uptake. Dry matter was reduced by 3.8% in T1 and 2.2% in T2 for each mmol O3·m-2 of cumulative ozone uptake. At the regional level, dry matter loss in winter wheat would reach 50% under elevated ozone concentrations and reduced solar irradiance as determined in T1, and 30% under conditions as determined in T2. Results from this study suggest that a combination of elevated ozone concentrations and reduced solar irradiance could result in substantial dry matter loss in the Chinese wheat-growing regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]