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Herein, Professor Barrie updates his 2016 presentation to the Institute on the national security implications of climate change. He notes that, despite a 2017 Senate inquiry urging urgent action, the Commonwealth Government has not yet responded other than by acknowledging the issue in a 2016 Defence white paper and a 2020 strategic update. The latest scientific research indicates that, in the worst case, Earth may reach a climate tipping point within 18 months which would pose an existential threat to humankind. Short of an existential threat, no other country on the planet will be as affected by the consequences of climate change as Australia. Time is running out for Australia to act!. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - Prolonged drought and climate change uncertainty have created an urgent need to re-distribute water away from irrigators and back to environmental flows. Previous approaches to achieve this objective have had mixed results. The current approach focuses on purchasing water from irrigators to bolster river flows for ecosystem health. However, governments are purchasing entitlements, not allocations, which do not provide large amounts of water for the money that is spent. This paper aims to review the policies and events that have driven this process. Design/methodology/approach - Following a the review of the policies and events, the paper identifies how the regulatory/market-based approaches have resulted in a status quo or path dependent situation, to the detriment of achieving sustainable water use. Findings - Previous approaches have so far simply maintained path dependency, i.e. the consumptive pool at more or less existing levels. Government intervention to purchase entitlements from irrigators for the environment through water markets is meant to break the status quo, but questions whether this can be achieved from a solitary focus on entitlement recovery. Practical implications - It is suggested that both historical approaches offer less reform value, and that appropriate market intervention is warranted. However, entitlement water purchasing alone may limit provision of wet water to key environmental sites during critical periods and perpetuate a continuation of the path dependency arrangements. Originality/value - A suggested expansion of the water-purchasing programme that utilises allocation based products to meet adaptive environmental flow strategies is provided. Such an approach may offer a more suitable framework for dealing with the uncertain outcomes of climate change and ecosystem needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many aquatic macroinvertebrates that require specific habitat niches are expected to relocate in response to global warming-induced climate change. For some species, relocation will not be possible because of geographic constraints or complete loss of the required habitat. Data compiled by Theischinger et al. (2018) was used to identify some species of Odonata at risk of extinction due to loss of habitat caused by climate change. While numerous species are at risk, this paper details only examples of habitats most likely to be impacted. Twelve species requiring these habitats are discussed. Species most at risk are those requiring alpine, sub-alpine and montane habitats. The combined effects of reduced rainfall and increased temperatures have been identified as the factors most likely to degrade these habitats catastrophically. Australia has limited alpine, sub-alpine and montane regions, and little or no alternative habitat for these species. Also, species requiring spring-fed streams are at risk due to reduced renewal of groundwater, while those that inhabit large slow-flowing rivers, particularly in the Murray Darling Basin, are likely to be impacted by algal blooms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to explore the current literature and ideas on how local climate change action (both mitigation and adaptation) could be intensified. Design/methodology/approach - A literature review of Australian and international academic journals and policy documents on the current views of effective local climate action was conducted. Additional data on Australian grassroots community activities was compiled from the internet, participant observation and secondary sources. Findings - The paper argues that local climate action is important and three key aspects could provide effective avenues to step-up local climate action. These three avenues are: increased attention to local adaptation; the linking of adaptation and mitigation efforts together and with other local ecological concerns; and greater engagement with active community members and grassroots community-initiated climate change actions. These three key aspects could give climate change a local saliency and tangibility, spur more effective action, build community resilience and reduce vulnerability. Research limitations/implications - Research is in the explorative stages and, therefore, only tentative conclusions and possible future directions can be suggested. Practical implications - The avenues identified to scale-up local action on climate change could be readily utilised by local governments and/or other interested groups. Originality/value - The paper disseminates three compelling ways that climate action could be intensified at the local scale, and possibly create greater public engagement and avenues to innovative approaches to tackle climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given current emissions trends an increase in global temperatures in excess of 2°C is highly likely in the coming century. In this context, it seems increasingly probable that states may consider solar geoengineering as a stop-gap climate response. Solar geoengineering refers to measures that aim to alleviate some measure of global warming by intentionally increasing the amount of the sun's energy that is reflected into space. Currently the two most discussed solar geoengineering techniques involve either marine cloud brightening or dispersing aerosols in the stratosphere. These techniques could be relatively inexpensive, are within the technological capacities (after a brief period of development) of technologically-advanced countries, and could have an almost immediate impact on temperatures. Yet, while solar geoengineering might potentially be utilised to manage some climate-linked security threats, it itself would create new security challenges. Consequently, this paper explores potential international security implications for Australia if a regional state, or group of states, initiates a solar geoengineering program. We conclude that since solar geoengineering is unlikely to become a first-order international issue, disputation over solar geoengineering will likely reflect, or act as a proxy for, wider patterns of state interaction. However, scenarios in which China and the United States take different positions, or in which there are divisions among regional powers, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, India and Singapore would pose the greatest threat to Australia's national security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite an exponential growth in the volume of adaptation research over the last decade, there is still a research gap in regard to the provision of suitable information to adequately inform climate change adaptation policy makers. Contributing to this gap is a paucity of research reporting on the effectiveness of implemented adaptation strategies. This paper reports on the success, failures and future risks of the responses taken by the South East Queensland (SEQ) water sector during the Millennium Drought. The adaptation strategy employed a portfolio approach mixing 'hard' and 'soft' adaptations. Strategies included the following: large-scale water manufacturing facilities and distribution networks; the exploitation of local water resources; regulatory instruments; institutional reforms; support for research and training and a range of demand management programmes. The strategies employed were innovative and in many cases required rigorous scientific evidence for their development, implementation and follow-up assessments. However, we show that there has been considerable disparity between anticipated and actual policy outcomes, which points to maladaptive consequences. By revisiting the effectiveness of implemented adaptation strategies in the SEQ water sector, our paper provides evidence for the need for integrative studies with genuine policy integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the lead-up to the first Australian parliamentary debates on an emissions trading scheme (ETS) in 2009, Ian Plimer - mining geologist, mining company director and climate change contrarian - published a book that argued there is no link between human activity and climate change. Plimer boasted that his book, Heaven and Earth: Global Warming - The Missing Science, would 'knock out every single argument we hear about climate change'. While promoting the book in media interviews, Plimer warned that the ETS would destroy mining and agriculture in Australia. Plimer's book was discredited by Australia's top climate scientists, yet received mostly favourable coverage in regional newspapers. Using content analysis and critical discourse analysis, this paper examines regional news articles, features, opinion columns, editorials and letters to the editor published between April 1 and June 30, 2009. The paper also considers the impact that media coverage of Plimer and his book had on the public debate on the ETS leading up to the legislation's defeat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and energy insecurity are grave threats to the stability and sustainability of human society. This paper considers the meaning of this globally manifest, yet regionally differentiated, ecological threat for Australia's urban system. It also considers the twin ecological peril of oil depletion, whose impacts may intensify to great effect the social stresses likely to emerge as climates warm. The paper intervenes in the debate that transfixes contemporary Australian urbanism: the sustainability of the suburban form in which most Australians live. A similar if not identical debate exists in North America and parts of western Europe. These discussions may be overemphasising the environmental significance of urban form and failing to apprehend the deeper socio-cultural forces that drive the (over)consumption of nature. Planning thought and practice need to loosen the grip of physical determinism on their environmental comprehension if they are to comprehend accurately the sources of, and solutions to, ecological threat. New urban scientific evidence suggests that planning's principal role in the fight against warming will be one of adaptation not mitigation. That is to say, there is no simple 'spatial fix' for overconsumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential role of the impacts of land-cover changes (LCCs) in the Australian climate is investigated within the context of increasing CO2 concentrations and temperature. Specifically, it is explored if possible scenarios for LCC can moderate or amplify CO2-induced changes in climate over Australia. The January climate of Australia is simulated under three different land-cover-change scenarios using a high-resolution regional climate model. The land-cover-change scenarios include a steady-state land cover that is equivalent to current land cover, a low-reforestation scenario that recovers approximately 25% of the trees replaced by grasslands within the last 200 yr, and a high-reforestation scenario that recovers at least 75% of the deforested regions. The model was driven by boundary conditions taken from transitory climate simulations from a general circulation model that included two climate scenarios based on two projected scenarios of CO2 concentration increase. The results show that reforestation has the potential to reduce the projected increase in Australian temperatures in 2050 and 2100 by as much as 40% and 20%, respectively. This cooling effect, however, is highly localized and occurs only in regions of reforestation. The results therefore hint that the potential of reforestation to moderate the impact of global warming may be significantly limited by the spatial scale of reforestation. In terms of deforestation, results show that any future land clearing can exacerbate the projected warming in certain regions of Australia. Carbon-related variables are also analyzed and results show that changes in net CO2 flux may be influenced more by soil respiration than by photosynthesis. The results herein encourage studies on the inclusion of land-cover-change scenarios in future climate change projection simulations of the Australian climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is under way a worldwide greening of industry, driven by the huge demand generated by China and India as emerging industrial giants whose growth cannot be accommodated by ‘business as usual’ fossil-fuelled development—for reasons having as much to do with energy security as concerns over global warming and climate change. While the role played in this process by fiscal and industry policies (e.g. carbon taxes and other market-based incentives) is well understood (even if not pursued currently in Australia), the potentially powerful leverage to be exercised by trade policy is under-recognised. There are some positive developments such as a proposed Environmental Goods Agreement being discussed in Geneva, while there are negative developments embodied in various bilateral and regional trade agreements such as the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, to which Australia has committed itself. There are rising levels of conflict over trade and climate change mitigation measures, in actions brought at the WTO against countries looking to promote green industries through measures like local content requirements being attached to foreign direct investment, or by countries imposing border tax adjustments against exporters who allegedly fail to implement carbon taxes. The issues involved are discussed in this paper and possible ways forward are proposed, along with some implications for Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The Murray dairy region produces approximately 1.85 billion litres of milk each year, representing about 20 % of Australia's total annual milk production. An ongoing production challenge in this region is the management of the impacts of heat stress during spring and summer. An increase in the frequency and severity of extreme temperature events due to climate change may result in additional heat stress and production losses. This paper assesses the changing nature of heat stress now, and into the future, using historical data and climate change projections for the region using the temperature humidity index (THI). Projected temperature and relative humidity changes from two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO MK3.5 and CCR-MIROC-H, have been used to calculate THI values for 2025 and 2050, and summarized as mean occurrence of, and mean length of consecutive high heat stress periods. The future climate scenarios explored show that by 2025 an additional 12-15 days (compared to 1971 to 2000 baseline data) of moderate to severe heat stress are likely across much of the study region. By 2050, larger increases in severity and occurrence of heat stress are likely (i.e. an additional 31-42 moderate to severe heat stress days compared with baseline data). This increasing trend will have a negative impact on milk production among dairy cattle in the region. The results from this study provide useful insights on the trends in THI in the region. Dairy farmers and the dairy industry could use these results to devise and prioritise adaptation options to deal with projected increases in heat stress frequency and severity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The consensus in the scientific community is that the intensity of extreme precipitation will increase in a warmer climate. However, as there is limited observational evidence to this effect, there is a growing body of research which focuses on directly investigating the relationship between temperature and precipitation. This is currently performed by binning precipitation data in temperature bins and then investigating the trend in the precipitation percentiles in each bin with temperature. In this paper, we highlight limitations in the binning approach and present quantile regression as an alternative to the above process. Quantile regression allows estimation of this scaling directly and, unlike binning, is unbiased with sample size. Moreover, quantile regression presents a natural framework for investigation into other factors (covariates) that may be affecting the nature of the scaling relationship. Results using subdaily rainfall data for Australia show the efficacy of the proposed quantile regression method, as well as the presence of season indicators as significant covariates that affect the scaling relationship of precipitation with temperature. A general increase in the scaling coefficient in winter versus summer is observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The ethnographic study of Western environmental activism opens up the prospect of studying subjectivities formed in opposition to dominant Western ideas and values, and yet encapsulated within Western societies and democratic polities. One of the directions in which it points the anthropologist, which is pursued in this article, is towards the study of the political lifeworlds of activists, their self-identity as citizens and their embeddedness in the wider society. Environmental politics can be an emergent activity in citizens' lives, as expressed in John Dewey's concept of 'the public' as citizens who organise themselves to address the adverse consequences of situations that they experience in common (Dewey 1991[1927]). This paper focuses on a middle ground of social action between habitual daily practice, and the domain of institutional politics: groups of people in small voluntary organisations in the heavily coal-mined Hunter Valley, Southeast Australia, who are moved to collective action to address the threatening aspects of anthropogenic climate change. Action group members variously articulate their reflexive understandings of the structural contradictions of environmentalism in corporate capitalist societies where values of consumerism and processes of individualization corrode collective concerns of citizenship-based politics. These understandings inform activists' personal motivations, values and ideals for a 'climate movement', diverse modes of political action and striving for wider political intelligibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Köppen-Geiger climate classification has been used for over a century to delineate climate types across the globe. As it was developed to mimic the distribution of vegetation, it may provide a useful surrogate for making projections of the future distribution of vegetation, and hence resultant hydrological implications, under climate change scenarios. This paper developed projections of the Köppen- Geiger climate types covering the Australian continent for a 2030 and 2050 climate relative to a 1990 historical baseline climate using 17 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and five global warming scenarios. At the highest level of classification for a +2.4 °C future climate (the upper limit projected for 2050) relative to the historical baseline, it was projected that the area of the continent covered by -- tropical climate types would increase from 8.8% to 9.1 %; -- arid climate types would increase from 76.5% to 81.7 %; -- temperate climate types would decrease from 14.7% to 9.2 %; -- cold climate types would decrease from 0.016% to 0.001 %. Previous climate change impact studies on water resources in Australia have assumed a static vegetation distribution. If the change in projected climate types is used as a surrogate for a change in vegetation, then the major transition in climate from temperate to arid in parts of Australia under a drier future climate could cause indirect effects on water resources. A transition from annual cropping to perennial grassland would have a compounding effect on the projected reduction in recharge. In contrast, a transition from forest to grassland would have a mitigating effect on the projected reduction in runoff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

All cultures have seasons, an understanding of the cycles of the year, especially the growing, gathering and hunting periods, and the predominantly hot or cold, wet or dry times of the year that are related to those periods. Yet the number and nature of the seasons and their physiological and psychological affects varies widely across cultures. The four seasons of spring, summer, autumn and winter are a European cultural construction of nature. These four seasons were imposed on the antipodean, upside-down world of Australia, and on its climates considered vaguely and inappropriately 'Mediterranean' or 'Temperate' modelled on European exemplars, and on indigenous seasons -- six in the case of some Australian aboriginal groups, such as the Noongars of south- western Australia. In this paper I chart briefly the colonisation of the seasons in Australia and then call for and begin their decolonisation. I do so through a deconstructive reading of some of the writing about the seasons in the European literary canon, especially James Thomson, and through an appreciation of its dissenter in Henry David Thoreau. The seasons, however, are not merely a matter of idle historical curiosity nor an interesting antiquarian hobby. They play a much more vital role in contemporary cultural and environmental politics in the age of human-made climate change in which the seasons, European and indigenous, are being disrupted. Rather than 'climate change' or 'global warming' I propose 'seasonal dislocation' or 'seasonal disruption' as better, more precise and poetic ways to describe these phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Since the global warming and climate change are recognized as real concerns, attention of power system planners and operators, energy policy makers and regulators as well as developers around the world including Australia is focused on using alternative and low emission energy technologies for electric power production. Renewable energy and energy efficient technologies have many advantages including reducing climate change, increasing sustainability in power sector, and increasing security of power supply. This paper presents an overview on both current electricity grid and future grid. Experts believe that in future more distributed generation (DG) will be integrated into the low to medium electricity grid. This paper will also review the key drivers in relation to integration of increased DG technologies in general and the renewable energy-distributed generation (RE-DG) technologies in particular, into the electric power system and the opportunities and challenges linked to these technologies. This paper also reviews possible connection location of RE-DG into the grid and its impact on system voltage. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Generations of Australians, especially those who live in rural or remote areas, have struggled to better understand, manage, and adapt to Australia's unique environmental conditions. Increased awareness of pressures and impacts of population growth has renewed the long-standing debate on the nation's capacity to sustainably manage natural resources. Since 2002, the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists has been active in debates linking science and public policy with a declared intent to inform decision-makers on ways to adapt to changing Australian environmental conditions, assuming a growing population. The purpose of this paper is to reflect on the population policy debate from the perspective of an entity that has as its prime objective to improve the nation's capacity to adapt to these changing conditions by influencing public policy on natural resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change is the major and most urgent global environmental issue. Australia is already experiencing climate change as evidenced by higher temperatures and more frequent and severe droughts. These impacts are compounded by increasing land use pressures on natural resources and native ecosystems. This paper provides a synthesis of the interactions, feedbacks and risks of natural climate variability, climate change and land use/land cover change (LUCC) impacting on the Australian continent and how they vary regionally. We review evidence of climate change and underlying processes resulting from interactions between global warming caused by increased concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases and modification of the land surface. The consequences of ignoring the effect of LUCC on current and future droughts in Australia could have catastrophic consequences for the nation's environment, economy and communities. We highlight the need for more integrated, long-term and adaptive policies and regional natural resource management strategies that restore the beneficial feedbacks between native vegetation cover and local-regional climate, to help ameliorate the impact of global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores two public policy questions: (i) what particular professional insights and values might engineers contribute to present public debates on Australia's climate crisis? (ii) how might the education of engineers be enhanced, to sharpen their insights and maximise their contribution? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Exposure to rising sublethal temperatures can affect development and somatic condition, and thereby Darwinian fitness. In the context of climate warming, these changes could have implications for population viability, but they can be subtle and consequently difficult to quantify. Using telomere length (TL) as a known biomarker of somatic condition in early life, we investigated the impact of pre‐hatching and nestling climate on six cohorts of wild nestling superb fairy wrens (Malurus cyaneus) in temperate south‐eastern Australia. Models incorporating only climate information from the nestling phase were best supported compared to those including the (pre‐)laying to incubation phase (previously shown to affect mass) or both phases combined. This implies that nestling TL is most sensitive to ambient climate in the nestling phase. The top model showed a negative relationship between early‐life TL and nestling mean daily minimum temperature when rainfall was low which gradually became positive with increasing rainfall. In addition, there was a positive relationship between TL and the frequency of hot days (daily maximum temperature ≥35°C), although these temperatures were rare and short‐term. Including other pre‐hatching and nestling period, climate variables (e.g., mean daily maximum temperature and mean diurnal temperature variability) did not improve the prediction of nestling TL. Overall, our results suggest that cooler nights when conditions are dry and short‐term temperature spikes above 35°C during development are conducive for somatic maintenance. While these findings indicate a potential pathway for climate warming to impact wildlife fitness, they emphasize the need to elucidate the mechanisms underlying these complex associations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Teleconnections refer to long-range climate system linkages occurring over typically thousands of kilometers. Generally speaking, most teleconnections are attributed to the transmission of energy and propagation of waves although the physical complexity and characteristics behind these waves are not fully understood. To address this knowledge gap, we develop a climate network-based approach to reveal their directions and distribution patterns, evaluate the intensity of teleconnections, and identify sensitive regions using global daily surface air temperature data. Our results reveal a stable average intensity distribution pattern for teleconnections across a substantial spatiotemporal scale from 1948 to 2021, with the extent and intensity of teleconnection impacts increasing more prominently in the Southern Hemisphere over the past 37 years. Furthermore, we pinpoint climate-sensitive regions, such as southeastern Australia, which are likely to face increasing impacts due to global warming. Our proposed method offers new insights into the dynamics of global climate patterns and can inform strategies to address climate change and extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Food systems are a major contributor to climate change, producing one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions. However, public knowledge of food systems' contributions to climate change is low. One reason for low public awareness may be limited media coverage of the issue. To investigate this, we conducted a media analysis examining coverage of food systems and their contribution to climate change in Australian newspapers. Design: We analysed climate change articles from twelve Australian newspapers between 2011 and 2021, sourced from Factiva. We explored the volume and frequency of climate change articles that mentioned food systems and their contributions to climate change, as well as the level of focus on food systems. Setting: Australia. Participants: N/A. Results: Of the 2892 articles included, only 5 % mentioned the contributions of food systems to climate change, with the majority highlighting food production as the main contributor, followed by food consumption. Conversely, 8 % mentioned the impact of climate change on food systems. Conclusions: Though newspaper coverage of food systems' effects on climate change is increasing, coverage of the issue remains limited. As newspapers play a key role in increasing public and political awareness of matters, the findings provide valuable insights for advocates wishing to increase engagement on the issue. Increased media coverage may raise public awareness and encourage action by policymakers. Collaboration between public health and environmental stakeholders to increase public knowledge of the relationship between food systems and climate change is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is one of the primary challenges facing humanity and a topic of controversial public debates. Research on public attitudes toward climate change has a long tradition in social and communication science across different countries. In that field, segmentation analysis has become an important approach. However, the wide variety of methodological approaches and analytical strategies hamper cross-national comparisons. Against this background, we segmented the German population based on their attitudes toward climate change, using a methodological approach similarly employed in international studies as well, thus ensuring better comparability than prior studies. Based on a nationwide representative online survey (N = 999; fielded in 2021) and latent class analysis, we identified five segments: the Alarmed Actives, Convinced, Cautious, Disengaged, and Dismissive. International comparison yields interesting differences: Compared to the U.S. or Australia, e.g. no segment in Germany consists of climate change deniers; rather, the Dismissive group exhibits a German-specific, moderate form of skepticism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Retrofit strategies for commercial buildings are generally selected with the assumption of a stationary climate, despite the fact that the building will be operating for much of its life in a climate altered by global warming. This paper presents the results of detailed energy simulations of the possible impact of climate change on the energy consumption of an archetypal commercial office building in five Australian cities, and the relative magnitude of this impact compared to other possible changes to building energy consumption. The question of whether climatic change due to global warming is an important factor when selecting optimal retrofit strategies was considered in the present study, using predictive weather files generated from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections for 2020, 2050, and 2080. In regions without a substantial heating demand an increase in total building energy consumption was found, and when a substantial heating load was present a slight increase or decrease in energy consumption was observed. Changes in total building energy consumption of between −0.6% and +8.3%, and an increase in the total design cooling equipment capacity of 9.1%–25.0% was predicted over the period 1990 to 2080 due to climate change for the different cities. It was concluded that future climate change impacts are not as significant in the design and assessment of retrofit strategies for commercial office buildings as other impacts, as changes to building construction and usage will likely impact energy consumption much more significantly. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The south-west of Australia is being affected by a warming, drying trend in its climate. In response to these changing climatic conditions, as well as changes in farm commodity price relativities, farmers have adjusted their mix of enterprises to favour cereal production. As a result, an increasing potential source of cereal straw for bioenergy production has emerged. This paper examines how temporal and spatial costs of cereal straw accumulation may affect the establishment of a bioenergy plant in the region, with climate change impacts being highlighted. Logistics models based on mathematical programming are constructed for a range of plant sizes. Modelling results identify the cost structures of cereal straw accumulation for these plant sizes. Plant sizes are characterised by different cost structures and levels of volatility in their costs of grain accumulation. The profitability of bioenergy production based on cereal straw in this region of Australia is particularly exposed to climate variability, especially for larger plant sizes. The projected change in climate supports a relatively small reduction in the costs of cereal straw accumulation. These findings will affect decision-making over investment in a long-lived specific asset such as a bioenergy processing plant. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Drought is projected to become more severe and widespread as global warming continues in the twenty-first century, but hydroclimatic changes and their drivers are not well examined in the latest projections from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Here, precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E), soil moisture (SM), and runoff (R) from 25 CMIP6 models, together with self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index with Penman–Monteith potential evapotranspiration (scPDSIpm), are analyzed to quantify hydroclimatic and drought changes in the twenty-first century and the underlying causes. Results confirm consistent drying in these hydroclimatic metrics across most of the Americas (including the Amazon), Europe and the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, and Australia, although the drying magnitude differs, with the drying being more severe and widespread in surface SM than in total SM. Global drought frequency based on surface SM and scPDSIpm increases by ∼25%–100% (50%–200%) under the SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario in the twenty-first century together with large increases in drought duration and areas, which result from a decrease in the mean and flattening of the probability distribution functions of SM and scPDSIpm, while the R-based drought changes are relatively small. Changes in both P and E contribute to the SM change, whereas scPDSIpm decreases result from ubiquitous PET increases and P decreases over subtropical areas. The R changes are determined primarily by P changes, while the PET change explains most of the E increase. Intermodel spreads in surface SM and R changes are large, leading to large uncertainties in the drought projections. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Drought may become more severe and widespread under greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced global warming in the twenty-first century based on model projections. However, there are still large uncertainties in projected future drought changes, especially regarding the extent to which drought changes depend on drought indices and the future emissions scenarios analyzed. The latest projections from CMIP6 models reaffirm the widespread drying and increases in agricultural drought by up to 200% over most of the Americas (including the Amazon), Europe and the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, Southeast Asia, and Australia under moderate-to-high emissions scenarios in the twenty-first century, despite large uncertainties in individual projections partly due to internal variability. Ubiquitous increases in atmospheric demand for moisture under rising temperatures and precipitation decreases over many subtropical regions are the main driver of the projected drying and drought increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The effect of future climate scenarios on surface water and groundwater resources has been shown to have a consequent impact on water-dependent ecosystems. A regional-scale analysis of changes in water resources as a result of changing climate was undertaken in south-western Australia; a region with a large number of nationally and internationally recognised water-dependent ecosystems. The paper examines the potential environmental impacts of a substantial reduction in rainfall and an increase in temperature as projected by global climate models (GCMs) on river and groundwater-dependent terrestrial vegetation by 2030. Climate change effects on environmentally significant flow regimes were evaluated by applying the climate projections from 15 GCMs under three global warming ‘scenarios to rainfall–runoff and groundwater models. It was estimated that under a dry future climate scenario, the frequency of river flow rates important for ecological communities is likely to be reduced by up to 2months per year, which is likely to cause a significant level of stress to ecological communities. Additionally, the duration of no-flow periods may increase by more than 120days in some streams. Under a dry future climate scenario, groundwater-dependent vegetation is projected to be at a high risk in over 19% of its current habitat area. Water-dependent ecosystems are also projected to be affected by an increase in groundwater abstraction. The results indicate that the projected impacts of future climate conditions are not likely to be uniform across the region but overall they could cause a continuing threat to water-dependent ecosystems. The implementation of water management plans should place particular emphasis on the ecological water requirements in 6 of the 13 river catchments in south-western Australia and in areas where groundwater abstraction is high. The climate projections and ecological impacts are a continuation of the trends that have taken place in the past three decades. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: This paper presents the results of computer simulations of runoff from 13 major fresh and brackish river basins in south-western Australia (SWA) under climate projections obtained from 15 GCMs with three future global warming scenarios equivalent to global temperature rises of 0.7°C, 1.0°C and 1.3°C by 2030. The objective was to apply an efficient methodology, consistent across a large region, to examine the implications of the best available projections in climate trends for future surface water resources. An ensemble of rainfall-runoff models was calibrated on stream flow data from 1975 to 2007 from 106 gauged catchments distributed throughout the basins of the study area. The sensitivity of runoff to projected changes in mean annual rainfall is examined using the climate ‘elasticity’ concept. Averaged across the study area, all 15 GCMs project declines in rainfall under all global warming scenarios with a median decline of 8% resulting in a median decline in runoff of 25%. Such uniformity in projections from GCMs is unusual. Over SWA the average annual runoff under the 5th wettest and 5th driest of the 45 projections of the 2030 climate declines by 10 and 42%, respectively. Under the 5th driest projection the runoff decline ranges from 53% in the northern region to 40% in the southern region. Strong regional variations in climate sensitivity are found with the proportional decline in runoff greatest in the northern region and the greatest volumetric declines in the wetter basins in the south. Since the mid 1970s stream flows into the major water supply reservoirs in SWA have declined by more than 50% following a 16% rainfall reduction. This has already had major implications for water resources planning and for the preservation of aquatic and riparian ecosystems in the region. Our results indicate that this reduction in runoff is likely to continue if future climate projections eventuate. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: The effect of future climate scenarios on surface water and groundwater resources has been shown to have a consequent impact on water-dependent ecosystems. A regional-scale analysis of changes in water resources as a result of changing climate was undertaken in south-western Australia; a region with a large number of nationally and internationally recognised water-dependent ecosystems. The paper examines the potential environmental impacts of a substantial reduction in rainfall and an increase in temperature as projected by global climate models (GCMs) on river and groundwater-dependent terrestrial vegetation by 2030. Climate change effects on environmentally significant flow regimes were evaluated by applying the climate projections from 15 GCMs under three global warming ‘scenarios to rainfall–runoff and groundwater models. It was estimated that under a dry future climate scenario, the frequency of river flow rates important for ecological communities is likely to be reduced by up to 2months per year, which is likely to cause a significant level of stress to ecological communities. Additionally, the duration of no-flow periods may increase by more than 120days in some streams. Under a dry future climate scenario, groundwater-dependent vegetation is projected to be at a high risk in over 19% of its current habitat area. Water-dependent ecosystems are also projected to be affected by an increase in groundwater abstraction. The results indicate that the projected impacts of future climate conditions are not likely to be uniform across the region but overall they could cause a continuing threat to water-dependent ecosystems. The implementation of water management plans should place particular emphasis on the ecological water requirements in 6 of the 13 river catchments in south-western Australia and in areas where groundwater abstraction is high. The climate projections and ecological impacts are a continuation of the trends that have taken place in the past three decades. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Given the recent increasing public focus on climate change issues, there is a need for robust, sustainable and climate friendly power transmission and distribution systems that are intelligent, reliable, and green. Current power systems create environmental impacts as well as contributing to global warming due to their utilization of fossil fuels, especially coal, as carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere. In contrast to fossil fuels, renewable energy is starting to be used as the panacea for solving climate change or global warming problems. This paper describes a feasibility study undertaken to investigate the potentialities of renewable energy including the prospective locations in Australia for renewable energy generation, in particular solar and wind energy. Initially, a hybrid model has been developed to investigate the prospects of wind energy for typical Australian region considering production cost, cost of energy, emission production and contribution from renewable energy using the Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewable (HOMER), a computer model developed by the USA’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This model also explores suitable places around Australia for wind energy generation using statistical analysis. Subsequently, the usefulness of solar energy in the Australian context and suitable locations for solar energy generation are also investigated using a similar hybrid model. Finally, the model has been developed to investigate the prospects of renewable energy in particular wind and solar energy including specific locations in Australia that would be suitable for both wind and solar energy generation. From simulation analysis it is clearly observed that Australia has enormous potentialities for substantially increased use of renewable energy; a large penetration of renewable energy sources into the national power system would reduce CO2 emissions significantly, contributing to the reduction of global warming. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We identify the 10 major terrestrial and marine ecosystems in Australia most vulnerable to tipping points, in which modest environmental changes can cause disproportionately large changes in ecosystem properties. To accomplish this we independently surveyed the coauthors of this paper to produce a list of candidate ecosystems, and then refined this list during a 2-day workshop. The list includes (1) elevationally restricted mountain ecosystems, (2) tropical savannas, (3) coastal floodplains and wetlands, (4) coral reefs, (5) drier rainforests, (6) wetlands and floodplains in the Murray-Darling Basin, (7) the Mediterranean ecosystems of southwestern Australia, (8) offshore islands, (9) temperate eucalypt forests, and (10) salt marshes and mangroves. Some of these ecosystems are vulnerable to widespread phase-changes that could fundamentally alter ecosystem properties such as habitat structure, species composition, fire regimes, or carbon storage. Others appear susceptible to major changes across only part of their geographic range, whereas yet others are susceptible to a large-scale decline of key biotic components, such as small mammals or stream-dwelling amphibians. For each ecosystem we consider the intrinsic features and external drivers that render it susceptible to tipping points, and identify subtypes of the ecosystem that we deem to be especially vulnerable. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Mackey, R., 2007. Rhodes Fairbridge and the idea that the solar system regulates the Earth's climate. Journal of Coastal Research, SI 50 (Proceedings of the 9th International Coastal Symposium), 955 – 968. Gold Coast, Australia, ISSN 0749.0208 Rhodes Fairbridge died on 8th November, 2006. He was one of Australia's most accomplished scientists and has a special connection with Australia. In July, 1912 his father Kingsley established Fairbridge Village near Perth. It contains a chapel of elegant simplicity designed by one of the world's most famous architects of the time, Sir Herbert Baker, as a labour of love to commemorate Kingsley. Rhodes is one of the few scientists to research the sun/climate relationship in terms of the totality of the sun's impact on the earth (i.e. gravity, the electromagnetic force and output and their interaction). When the totality of the sun's impact is considered, having regard to the relevant research published over the last two decades, the influence of solar variability on the earth's climate is very strongly non-linear and stochastic. Rhodes also researched the idea that the planets might have a role in producing the sun's variable activity. If they do and if the sun's variable activity regulates climate, then ultimately the planets may regulate it. Recent research about the sun/climate relationship and the solar inertial motion (sim) hypothesis shows a large body of circumstantial evidence and several working hypotheses but no satisfactory account of a physical sim process. In 2007 Ulysses will send information about the solar poles. This could be decisive regarding the predictions about emergent Sunspot Cycle No 24, including the sim hypothesis. According to the sim hypothesis, this cycle should be like Sunspot Cycle No 14, and be followed by two that will create a brief ice age. During the 1920s and '30s Australia's Bureau of Meteorology published research about the sun/climate relationship, especially Sunspot Cycle No 14, showing that it probably caused the worst drought then on record. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia’s reliance on cheap coal for electricity generation, with no allowance for emissions in its pricing, puts this nation with the United States at the head of carbon dioxide emitters per head of population. On a global scale, however, its overall emissions are less than two percent of the world’s total. This latter fact has been the driver for the Federal Government’s policy on emissions reduction together with the belief that a carbon price will seriously endanger the economy. These views are discussed in relation to the refusal to sign the Kyoto protocol, the continuation of the most devastating drought for a century, and the options available to curb emissions that are discussed at length in this special issue. The just issued Stern report adds credence to the necessity for legislative action on carbon pricing and the arguments presented here, but has not yet produced any change in existing policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Healthcare is a potent emitter of greenhouse gases amounting up to 7% of total estimated greenhouse gas emissions (CO2e) for Australia. Australia has one of the highest incidences of skin cancer in the world but there is a paucity of data on the ecological impact of skin cancer excision/dermatologic surgery. The authors reviewed the various impact inventories in order to perform a life cycle assessment of skin cancer excision. A total of 8641 tonnes of estimated CO2e are produced from dermatologic surgery annually in Australia (6751 tonnes from private clinical rooms and 1890 tonnes from hospitals) and the waste generated contributes significantly to terrestrial ecotoxicity and acidification of land and water. Various means can be carried out to reduce this impact, ranging from simple behavioural changes to larger, policy changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since global warming between 2 and 4.9 °C by 2100 is unlikely to be avoided, humans will have to live with and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Migration has long been touted as a strategy for adapting to climate change, but there is limited understanding of which aspects of climate change will have greatest influence on peoples' decision to move somewhere they consider safer or stay somewhere safe. Here, we present results from two online surveys about mobility decisions from one low (Philippines) and one high (Australia) income country within the Asia-Pacific region with similar vulnerabilities to natural hazards. Online surveys with about 1100 respondents each were conducted in both countries. Results showed that natural hazards played a strong role in the mix of reasons for mobility, particularly in the Philippines. Sudden onset hazards had the greatest influence. Results of ordered probit models showed that the perception of personal damage from hazards was strongly positively associated with mobility decisions of respondents in both countries. Mobility decisions of people in Australia were further influenced by their experience with the specific hazards: those with greater experience of slow onset hazards were more likely, and those who had experience with sudden hazards less likely, to consider these when moving or staying somewhere. People in Australia might only react to sudden onset hazards with temporary relocation since experience had shown that they can adapt to them. This suggests that slow onset climate change related impacts such as heat waves and sea level rise, as well as environmental degradation and pollution, may have more sustained effects on long-term mobility than sudden events. In the Philippines, personal characteristics such as gender, income, and health had the greatest impact while experience with hazards had almost none. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two of Australia's most iconic ecosystems have recently sustained heavy damage related to climatic changes: the extensive eucalypt forests from catastrophic bushfires and the Great Barrier Reef from mass coral bleaching. Despite obvious differences, eucalypt trees and reef corals share some similarities in biology and ecology, particularly in relation to climate change impacts and adaptation. Both groups are the focus of an increasing research effort to characterize and respond to climate changes and here we examine how sharing research experiences can benefit both fields. Four key areas of research are considered: (a) modeling current distributions, (b) assessing impacts of climate change on future distributions, (c) using human‐assisted migration to improve survival, and (d) applying genetic enhancement to improve the species' survival. Examples of each research area are used to examine potential crossovers, limitations of the methods, and future requirements. We conclude that eucalypt and coral researchers, and indeed researchers for many other endangered taxa, can gain much by comparing experiences and methods, despite the apparent differences in their respective taxa. This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Observed Impacts of Climate Change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The visit to Australia by Dr David Pencheon, Founding Director of the National Health Service (NHS) Sustainable Development Unit, in April–May 2018 generated considerable interest and engagement. Dr Pencheon's overarching messages were that climate change is a health issue and that doctors and health systems have an opportunity, and responsibility, to lead climate action. This article distils Dr Pencheon's presentations into three themes: (i) carbon accounting; (ii) transformational change in our systems of healthcare; and (iii) a health system fit for the future. For each theme, we highlight promising initiatives that are already underway in Australia that are starting to transform our health system into one fit for a future environmentally sustainable world. We suggest practical ways in which doctors can lead the transformation through personal action and influence broader systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the patterns of political communication surrounding the environmental regulation of major Australian resource projects during the Business Advisory Forum of April 2012. The Forum discussed business and government responses to major project approvals to improve national productivity at a time when these projects also posed significant implications for anthropogenic global warming. The article's method is to examine print news articles published during this period. While the international literature has long demonstrated how the American fossil fuel lobby has employed metaphor to characterise climate change as a 'non-problem'--therefore allegedly making regulation of greenhouse gas emissions economically and politically unnecessary--no Australian study of metaphor use in climate science news has been conducted. This article, in finding news stories on so-called 'green tape' environmental regulation were saturated with metaphor clusters, argues that journalistic metaphor use has made the complex issue of environmental regulation accessible to mass audiences. But, in so doing, we also argue this metaphor use has supported business and government's position on environmental deregulation of major projects. Finally, this article also argues that some journalists' use of metaphors encouraged policy-makers to adopt, and re-use, journalists' own language and, in so doing, allow those journalists to be seen as complicit in the shaping of softer public attitudes to the impact of major projects on anthropogenic climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean warming 'hotspots' are regions characterized by above-average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test-beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal-marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high-resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO2-driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that the temperature-defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multivariate analyses of national survey data show that social background has an important influence upon environmental attitudes and behaviour in Australia. The tertiary educated consistently adopt a pro-environmental stance across a range of behaviours, including reducing their consumption, initiating lifestyle changes and voting for the Australian Greens. Men are less likely than women to see global warming as a serious threat and less likely to change their behaviour to protect the environment. However, men are far more likely than women to favour nuclear over coal-fired power, even after controlling for a range of other social background effects. While younger people claim they are willing to pay extra taxes or higher prices to reduce global warming, it is older people who are consuming less and changing their lifestyles because of their environmental concerns. A partisan divide over environmental issues and (in)action on climate change is demonstrated empirically, while conservative political leaders are shown to have an influence upon Green voting. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Climate projection data were applied to two commonly used pome fruit flowering models to investigate potential differences in predicted full bloom timing. The two methods, fixed thermal time and sequential chill-growth, produced different results for seven apple and pear varieties at two Australian locations. The fixed thermal time model predicted incremental advancement of full bloom, while results were mixed from the sequential chill-growth model. To further investigate how the sequential chill-growth model reacts under climate perturbed conditions, four simulations were created to represent a wider range of species physiological requirements. These were applied to five Australian locations covering varied climates. Lengthening of the chill period and contraction of the growth period was common to most results. The relative dominance of the chill or growth component tended to predict whether full bloom advanced, remained similar or was delayed with climate warming. The simplistic structure of the fixed thermal time model and the exclusion of winter chill conditions in this method indicate it is unlikely to be suitable for projection analyses. The sequential chill-growth model includes greater complexity; however, reservations in using this model for impact analyses remain. The results demonstrate that appropriate representation of physiological processes is essential to adequately predict changes to full bloom under climate perturbed conditions with greater model development needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies in temperate countries have shown that both hot weather in summer and cold weather in winter increase short-term (daily) mortality. The gradual warming, decade on decade, that Australia has experienced since the 1960s, might therefore be expected to have differentially affected mortality in the two seasons, and thus indicate an early impact of climate change on human health. Failure to detect such a signal would challenge the widespread assumption that the effect of weather on mortality implies a similar effect of a change from the present to projected future climate. We examine the ratio of summer to winter deaths against a background of rising average annual temperatures over four decades: the ratio has increased from 0.71 to 0.86 since 1968. The same trend, albeit of varying strength, is evident in all states of Australia, in four age groups (aged 55 years and above) and in both sexes. Analysis of cause-specific mortality suggests that the change has so far been driven more by reduced winter mortality than by increased summer mortality. Furthermore, comparisons of this seasonal mortality ratio calculated in the warmest subsets of seasons in each decade, with that calculated in the coldest seasons, show that particularly warm annual conditions, which mimic the expected temperatures of future climate change, increase the likelihood of higher ratios (approaching 1:1). Overall, our results indicate that gradual climate change, as well as short-term weather variations, affect patterns of mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia has had a variable and mostly arid climate as long as humans have been on the continent. Historically observed trends toward increased warming, with rainfall increases in many tropical areas and rainfall decreases in many temperate areas, are projected to continue. Impacts will be geographically variable but mostly negative for biodiversity, agriculture, and infrastructure. Extreme events such as bushfires and floods will increase in frequency and intensity, concentrated in summer. With an economy heavily dependent on coal for domestic electricity generation and as an export commodity, Australians are high per capita contributors to anthropogenic climate change. A quarter-century of steps to mitigation led in 2012 to a carbon price that has the long-term potential to shift the economy toward more renewable energy sources. However as in other parts of the world this change has come too late, and is proceeding too slowly, to avoid significant climate change. A heritage of indigenous adaptation, strong volunteer cultures, and contemporary cultural diversity provide Australia with considerable adaptive capacity for gradual changes, but the nation is underprepared for sudden or step changes. We identify four pressing research and policy needs focused on such changes: (1) systematic attention to processes and impacts of negative transformative change, or worst-case scenarios, (2) improve forecasts of year-to-year rainfall and climate variability, focusing on processes and climate drivers that may change in response to higher greenhouse gases, (3) identification and engagement of diverse cross-cultural resources, and (4) articulation of alternative governance mechanisms that can interact dynamically with strong government. WIREs Clim Change 2014, 5:175-197. doi: 10.1002/wcc.255 Conflict of interest: The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article. For further resources related to this article, please visit the . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the future changes of Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) system projected by 20 climate models that participated in the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A metrics for evaluation of the model's performance on AAM precipitation climatology and variability is used to select a subset of seven best models. The CMIP5 models are more skillful than the CMIP3 models in terms of the AAM metrics. The future projections made by the selected multi-model mean suggest the following changes by the end of the 21st century. (1) The total AAM precipitation (as well as the land and oceanic components) will increase significantly (by 4.5 %/°C) mainly due to the increases in Indian summer monsoon (5.0 %/°C) and East Asian summer monsoon (6.4 %/°C) rainfall; the Australian summer monsoon rainfall will increase moderately by 2.6 %/°C. The 'warm land-cool ocean' favors the entire AAM precipitation increase by generation of an east-west asymmetry in the sea level pressure field. On the other hand, the warm Northern Hemisphere-cool Southern Hemisphere induced hemispheric SLP difference favors the ASM but reduces the Australian summer monsoon rainfall. The combined effects explain the differences between the Asian and Australian monsoon changes. (2) The low-level tropical AAM circulation will weaken significantly (by 2.3 %/°C) due to atmospheric stabilization that overrides the effect of increasing moisture convergence. Different from the CMIP3 analysis, the EA subtropical summer monsoon circulation will increase by 4.4 %/°C. (3) The Asian monsoon domain over the land area will expand by about 10 %. (4) The spatial structures of the leading mode of interannual variation of AAM precipitation will not change appreciably but the ENSO-AAM relationship will be significantly enhanced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study used 16 Global Climate Models and three global warming scenarios to make projections of recharge under a 2050 climate for the entire Australian continent at a 0.05° grid resolution. The results from these 48 future climate variants have been fitted to a probability distribution to enable the results to be summarised and uncertainty quantified. The median results project a reduction in recharge across the west, centre and south of Australia and an increase in recharge across the north and a small area in the east of the continent. The range of results is quite large and for large parts of the continent encompasses both increases and decreases in recharge. This makes it difficult to utilise for water resources management so the results have been analysed with a risk analysis framework; this enables the future projections for groundwater recharge to be communicated to water managers in terms of likelihood and consequence of a reduction in recharge. This highlights an important message for water resource managers that in most areas of Australia they will be making decisions on water allocations under considerable uncertainty as to the direction and magnitude of recharge change under a future climate and that this uncertainty may be irreducible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers the author's insights on climate change science debate in Australian secondary education. He says that there is a problem with general resourcing and teaching in science education, particularly in climate change science. He mentions that one of the most vital parameter for climate science, and studies of the association between atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and global warming is "climate sensitivity."