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Changes in Köppen-Geiger climate types under a future climate for Australia: hydrological implications.
- Source :
- Hydrology & Earth System Sciences; 2012, Vol. 16 Issue 9, p3341-3349, 9p
- Publication Year :
- 2012
-
Abstract
- The Köppen-Geiger climate classification has been used for over a century to delineate climate types across the globe. As it was developed to mimic the distribution of vegetation, it may provide a useful surrogate for making projections of the future distribution of vegetation, and hence resultant hydrological implications, under climate change scenarios. This paper developed projections of the Köppen- Geiger climate types covering the Australian continent for a 2030 and 2050 climate relative to a 1990 historical baseline climate using 17 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and five global warming scenarios. At the highest level of classification for a +2.4 °C future climate (the upper limit projected for 2050) relative to the historical baseline, it was projected that the area of the continent covered by -- tropical climate types would increase from 8.8% to 9.1 %; -- arid climate types would increase from 76.5% to 81.7 %; -- temperate climate types would decrease from 14.7% to 9.2 %; -- cold climate types would decrease from 0.016% to 0.001 %. Previous climate change impact studies on water resources in Australia have assumed a static vegetation distribution. If the change in projected climate types is used as a surrogate for a change in vegetation, then the major transition in climate from temperate to arid in parts of Australia under a drier future climate could cause indirect effects on water resources. A transition from annual cropping to perennial grassland would have a compounding effect on the projected reduction in recharge. In contrast, a transition from forest to grassland would have a mitigating effect on the projected reduction in runoff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 10275606
- Volume :
- 16
- Issue :
- 9
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Hydrology & Earth System Sciences
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 83287978
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3341-2012