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South eastern Australia is a global warming hotspot, and is also home to ~70% of Australia's population and one of Australia's largest fisheries—the South East Scalefish and Shark Fishery. This fishery spans shelf to deep waters, subtropical to temperate waters, employs many gears, and interacts with over 100 species. Despite following best practice fisheries management principles, including taking an ecosystem perspective to overall fisheries interactions, management interventions have failed to arrest or recover the decline of some focal species. Using an Atlantis ecosystem model developed for the fishery over the past 20 years, this paper presents simulations that suggest climate change may be a major contributor to the trajectories seen for a number of species—such as jackass morwong (Nemadactylus macropterus), blue warehou (Seriolella brama), and gemfish (Rexea solandri). This kind of climate influence poses many challenges for fisheries management into the future, raising questions about what to do when climate change undermines or overrides fisheries management actions and objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background With high temperature becoming an increasing health risk due to a changing climate, it is important to quantify the scale of the problem. However, estimating the burden of disease (BoD) attributable to high temperature can be challenging due to differences in risk patterns across geographical regions and data accessibility issues. Methods We present a methodological framework that uses Köppen–Geiger climate zones to refine exposure levels and quantifies the difference between the burden observed due to high temperatures and what would have been observed if the population had been exposed to the theoretical minimum risk exposure distribution (TMRED). Our proposed method aligned with the Australian Burden of Disease Study and included two parts: (i) estimation of the population attributable fractions (PAF); and then (ii) estimation of the BoD attributable to high temperature. We use suicide and self-inflicted injuries in Australia as an example, with most frequent temperatures (MFTs) as the minimum risk exposure threshold (TMRED). Results Our proposed framework to estimate the attributable BoD accounts for the importance of geographical variations of risk estimates between climate zones, and can be modified and adapted to other diseases and contexts that may be affected by high temperatures. Conclusions As the heat-related BoD may continue to increase in the future, this method is useful in estimating burdens across climate zones. This work may have important implications for preventive health measures, by enhancing the reproducibility and transparency of BoD research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Climate change is impacting the health of individuals worldwide. At the same time, the healthcare sector contributes to carbon emissions. In Australia, healthcare contributes 7% of the country's carbon footprint. Research into the environmental impact and mitigation of carbon emissions in primary care is an emerging area. Objective To explore staff perspectives on facilitators and barriers to environmental sustainability in 3 Australian general practices seeking to reduce their environmental impact. Methods We used a qualitative, case-study approach, conducting 23 semistructured interviews with staff across the 3 practices including nurses, administrative staff, and doctors. Observation of systems and staff behaviour relating to environmental sustainability was undertaken at 1 practice. Thematic analysis was conducted to determine themes relating to factors influencing the implementation of environmentally sustainable initiatives within practice settings. Results Climate mitigation efforts raised by participants were largely focussed on energy and waste reduction, rather than prescribing pharmaceuticals and staff and patient transport. Three main factors influencing change towards sustainable practice were identified: "Leadership," "Staff Engagement and Workplace Culture," and "Concomitant Benefits." A leadership team and workplace culture that valued environmental sustainability were found to be important facilitators, as were concomitant benefits, in particular financial savings. Barriers included what interviewees described as a lack of knowledge about initiatives with the highest impact, lack of understanding described by staff of the evidence behind particular initiatives, waning staff engagement and infection control concerns. Conclusions Our research highlights several important factors that contribute to the implementation of intended environmentally sustainable initiatives in these 3 practices. Further education, research and high-level policy guidance on the potential environmental impact of prescribing pharmaceuticals, staff and patient transport and unnecessary tests and treatments are recommended to further promote environmental sustainability in primary care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many long-term studies have reported changes in seabird abundance and distribution in response to climate change and various anthropogenic activities. However, a greater understanding of how species are responding to change over large spatial and temporal scales are required—particularly at high latitudes such as the Southern Ocean. We examined black-browed Thalassarche melanophris (BBAL) and light-mantled sooty Phoebetria palpebrata albatross (LMSA) observations spanning over 50 years. Both species have a wide-ranging distribution in a rapidly changing Southern Ocean. We used generalized additive models (GAMs) to investigate environmental drivers of their abundance and occurrence. Our results show that climate indices, sea surface temperature and sea surface height are the main drivers influencing the distribution and abundance of both species. The abundance of BBAL southeast of Australia was observed to be decreased substantially whereas no significant change was observed in the abundance of LMSA. Both species demonstrated contrasting distributions along their latitudinal gradient with BBAL showing early stages of a southward range shift. Our analyses suggest that responses to climate change are species-specific. These rare, long-term data have provided an understanding of species' responses to past changes in the marine environment and can provide critical information for future conservation and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change threatens the survival of coral reefs on a global scale, primarily through mass bleaching and mortality as a result of marine heatwaves. While these short-term effects are clear, predicting the fate of coral reefs over the coming century is a major challenge. One way to understand the longer-term effect of rapid climate change is to examine the response of coral populations to past climate shifts. Coastal and shallow-water marine ecosystems such as coral reefs have been reshaped many times by sea-level changes during the Pleistocene, yet few studies have directly linked this with its consequences on population demographics, dispersal, and adaptation. Here we use powerful analytical techniques, afforded by haplotype-phased whole-genomes, to establish such links for the reef-building coral, Acropora digitifera. We show that three genetically distinct populations are present in northwestern Australia, and that their rapid divergence since the last glacial maximum (LGM) can be explained by a combination of founder-effects and restricted gene flow. Signatures of selective sweeps, too strong to be explained by demographic history, are present in all three populations and overlap with genes that show different patterns of functional enrichment between inshore and offshore habitats. In contrast to rapid divergence in the host, we find that photosymbiont communities are largely undifferentiated between corals from all three locations, spanning almost 1000 km, indicating that selection on host genes, and not acquisition of novel symbionts, has been the primary driver of adaptation for this species in northwestern Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Radiant spring frosts occurring during reproductive developmental stages can result in catastrophic yield loss for wheat producers. To better understand the spatial and temporal variability of frost, the occurrence and impact of frost events on rain-fed wheat production was estimated across the Australian wheatbelt for 1957-2013 using a 0.05 ° gridded weather data set. Simulated yield outcomes at 60 key locations were compared with those for virtual genotypes with different levels of frost tolerance. Over the last six decades, more frost events, later last frost day, and a significant increase in frost impact on yield were found in certain regions of the Australian wheatbelt, in particular in the South-East and West. Increasing trends in frost-related yield losses were simulated in regions where no significant trend of frost occurrence was observed, due to higher mean temperatures accelerating crop development and causing sensitive post-heading stages to occur earlier, during the frost risk period. Simulations indicated that with frost-tolerant lines the mean national yield could be improved by up to 20% through (i) reduced frost damage (∼10% improvement) and (ii) the ability to use earlier sowing dates (adding a further 10% improvement). In the simulations, genotypes with an improved frost tolerance to temperatures 1 °C lower than the current 0 °C reference provided substantial benefit in most cropping regions, while greater tolerance (to 3 °C lower temperatures) brought further benefits in the East. The results indicate that breeding for improved reproductive frost tolerance should remain a priority for the Australian wheat industry, despite warming climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate-driven redistribution of fisheries species is altering their availability to fishers, necessitating projections of species redistributions that directly relate to future fishing opportunities. We propose that a valuable proxy for fishing opportunity is the proportion of the year that target species are available to fishers, which can be approximated by the temporal persistence of suitable habitat in defined regions. Here, we quantify changes in temporal habitat persistence (months/year) within five eastern Australian bioregions over the period 2010–2060 for four coastal-pelagic fishes: bonito (Sarda australis), spotted mackerel (Scomberomorus munroi), Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson) and dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus). When species were analysed collectively, a significant reduction in the temporal persistence of suitable environmental habitats was evident in the most equatorward (i.e. Tweed-Moreton) bioregion, while significant positive increases were found for poleward bioregions (e.g. Batemans and Twofold Shelf bioregions). The greatest increases in temporal habitat persistence were projected for bonito in the Batemans Shelf bioregion and Spanish mackerel in the Hawkesbury Shelf bioregion (+2.2 and + 1.5 months/year between 10-year averages centered on 2020 and 2050, respectively). By demonstrating temporal habitat persistence as a measure of fishing opportunity, we highlight the potential for this metric to be an effective means of communicating to fishing stakeholders the need to adapt to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The range expansion of tropical fish into temperate waters is increasing markedly in response to climate change. Range-expanding fish encounter novel diets and environments, but we know little about how these conditions facilitate or hinder distribution shifts. Here, we quantified relative growth rate, morphometric condition and trophic niche of juvenile Acanthurus triostegus , a dominant range-expanding tropical surgeonfish, at four locations across 10° of latitude off eastern Australia. We related these metrics to differences in temperature and nutritional quality of dominant seaweeds and the epilithic algal matrix. Temperate food sources were richer in nitrogen than tropical diets. Stable isotope analysis (δ13 carbon and δ15 nitrogen) of fish muscle revealed a large trophic niche breadth at the highest latitude indicating a generalist foraging strategy, and more nitrogen-enriched isotopic signatures compared to tropical regions. Fish length was strongly correlated to δ13C in all regions, suggesting an ontogenetic shift in diet independent of latitude. Despite temperature differences of 4°C, fish growth and body condition were similar across tropical and temperate regions. These results suggest that more nutritious temperate diets may compensate for the effects of cooler water temperatures. Neither summer water temperatures nor dietary factors appear to limit the success of juvenile tropical vagrants as they continue to expand their range along eastern Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improvements in environmental health have had the most significant impact on health status. In Australia, life expectancy has significantly increased through provision of vaccination, safe food and drinking water, appropriate sewage disposal and other environmental health measures. Yet the profession that is instrumental in delivering environmental health services at the local community level is overlooked. Rarely featuring in mainstream media, the successes of Environmental Health Officers (EHOs) are invisible to the general public. As a consequence, students entering university are unaware of the profession and its significant role in society. This has resulted in there being too few EHOs to meet the current regulatory requirements, much less deal with the emerging environmental health issues arising as a consequence of changing global conditions including climate change. To futureproof Australian society and public health this workforce issue, and the associated oversight of environmental health must be addressed now. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The strong La Niña of 2010-2011 provided an opportunity to investigate the ecological impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on coastal plankton communities using the nine national reference stations around Australia. Based on remote sensing and across the entire Australian region 2011 (La Niña) was only modestly different from 2010 (El Niño) with the average temperature declining 0.2%, surface chlorophyll a up 3% and modelled primary production down 14%. Other changes included a poleward shift in Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus. Along the east coast, there was a reduction in salinity, increase in nutrients, Chlorophytes and Prasinophytes (taxa with chlorophyll b, neoxanthin and prasinoxanthin). The southwest region had a rise in the proportion of 19-hexoyloxyfucoxanthin; possibly coccolithophorids in eddies of the Leeuwin Current and along the sub-tropical front. Pennate diatoms increased, Ceratium spp. decreased and Scrippsiella spp. increased in 2011. Zooplankton biomass declined significantly in 2011. There was a reduction in the abundance of Calocalanus pavo and Temora turbinata and increases in Clausocalanus farrani, Oncaea scottodicarloi and Macrosetella gracilis in 2011. The changes in the plankton community during the strong La Niña of 2011 suggest that this climatic oscillation exacerbates the tropicalization of Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Extended drought conditions in south-east Queensland during the early 2000s have resulted in a culture of water harvesting and legislated water restrictions. Aedes notoscriptus is a container-breeding mosquito vector of Ross River and Barmah Forest viruses. Methods From 2008–2009, the larval habitats and seasonal abundance of domestic container-breeding mosquitoes were recorded from three suburbs of Brisbane. A knowledge, attitudes and practice questionnaire was administered to householders. A low-cost, desktop methodology was used to predict the proportion of shaded premises compared with front-of-property estimates. Results We highlight changes in the frequency of container categories for A. notoscriptus as a response to human behavioural changes to drought. Garden accoutrements, discarded household items and water storage containers accounted for 66.2% (525/793) of positive containers and 77.5% (73 441/94 731) of all immature mosquitoes. Of all household premises surveyed, 52.6% (550/1046) contained rainwater tanks and 29.4% (308/1046) harvested water in other containers, contrasting with a previous 1995 survey where neither category was observed. Both Premise Condition Index and shade directly correlated with positive premises. Conclusions Human response to drought has resulted in new habitats for domestic container-breeding mosquitoes. This recent trend of prolific water storage is similar to earlier years (1904–1943) in Brisbane when Aedes aegypti was present and dengue epidemics occurred. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Aims Australian alpine ecosystems currently experience high precipitation in the snow-free season, but they are predicted to experience drier conditions under climate change. We observed high mortality of the dominant alpine grasses following drought in 2007. Our aims were as follows: to test the involvement of plant-available water (PAW) and other environmental variables in grass mortality in the field;to detect possible species differences in drought response andto link soil moisture to precipitation using soil properties and climate data. Methods The dominant tussock grasses of the Australian alpine zone, Poa hothamensis var. hothamensis N.G. Walsh, Poa hiemata Vickery and Poa phillipsiana Vickery (Poaceae), all exhibited mortality following drought in the Bogong High Plains, Victoria, Australia in 2007. PAW was calculated using soil water potential measurements, and past drought occurrence was modelled using climate data. We then tested the effects of PAW and soil depth on grass survival both at a large spatial scale spanning the elevational range of the alpine zone and at a smaller scale. Poa hothamensis and P. phillipsiana were compared in a common-garden experiment to test drought tolerance. Important Findings Poa hothamensis survival was predicted by dry-season PAW at the small spatial scale; at the large scale, soil depth and elevation were more important predictors of P. hothamensis survival, but dry-season PAW predicted P. hiemata survival. Common-garden experiments supported field observations that P. hothamensis is more drought-sensitive than is P. phillipsiana. We also present a simple polynomial relationship between rainfall and field soil moisture, which predicts that the alpine soils dry below wilting point several times a year. We suggest the timing of long rain-free periods may be more important than their duration. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Aims Australia is among one of the world’s wealthiest nations; yet, its relatively small human population (22.5 million) has been responsible for extensive deforestation and forest degradation since European settlement in the late 18th century. Despite most (∼75%) of Australia’s 7.6 million-km2 area being covered in inhospitable deserts or arid lands generally unsuitable to forest growth, the coastal periphery has witnessed a rapid decline in forest cover and quality, especially over the last 60 years. Here I document the rates of forest loss and degradation in Australia based on a thorough review of existing literature and unpublished data. Important Findings Overall, Australia has lost nearly 40% of its forests, but much of the remaining native vegetation is highly fragmented. As European colonists expanded in the late 18th and the early 19th centuries, deforestation occurred mainly on the most fertile soils nearest to the coast. In the 1950s, southwestern Western Australia was largely cleared for wheat production, subsequently leading to its designation as a Global Biodiversity Hotspot given its high number of endemic plant species and rapid clearing rates. Since the 1970s, the greatest rates of forest clearance have been in southeastern Queensland and northern New South Wales, although Victoria is the most cleared state. Today, degradation is occurring in the largely forested tropical north due to rapidly expanding invasive weed species and altered fire regimes. Without clear policies to regenerate degraded forests and protect existing tracts at a massive scale, Australia stands to lose a large proportion of its remaining endemic biodiversity. The most important implications of the degree to which Australian forests have disappeared or been degraded are that management must emphasize the maintenance of existing primary forest patches, as well as focus on the regeneration of matrix areas between fragments to increase native habitat area, connectivity and ecosystem functions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We conducted a comprehensive modelling study to estimate future stem wood production and net ecosystem production (NEP) of Pinus radiata D. Don plantations in south-western Australia, a region that is predicted to undergo severe rainfall reduction in future decades. The process-based model CenW was applied to four locations where it had previously been tested. Climate change scenarios under four emission scenarios for the period from 2005 to 2066 were considered, in addition to simulations under the current climate. Results showed that stem wood production and NEP were little affected by moderate climate change. However, under the most pessimistic climate change scenario (Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2), stem wood production and NEP decreased strongly. These results could be explained by the trade-off between the positive effect of rising atmospheric CO2 on plant water use efficiency and the negative effects of decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures. Because changes in heterotrophic respiration (RH) lagged behind changes in plant growth, and because RH rates were increased by higher temperatures, NEP was more negatively affected than stem wood production. Stem wood production and NEP also strongly interacted with location, with the site currently having the wettest climate being least affected by climatic change. These results suggest that realistic predictions of forest production and carbon sequestration potential in the context of climate change require (1) the use of modelling tools that describe the important feedbacks between environmental variables, plant physiology and soil organic matter decomposition, (2) consideration of a range of climate change scenarios and (3) simulations that account for a gradual climate change to capture transient effects. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In Australia, tree planting has been widely promoted to alleviate dryland salinity and one proposed planting configuration is that of strategically placed interception belts. We conducted an experiment to determine the effect of tree position in a belt on transpiration rate. We also assessed how much the effect of tree position can be explained by advection and environmental conditions. Daily transpiration rates were determined by the heat pulse velocity technique for four edge and 12 inner trees in a 7-year-old Tasmanian blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus) plantation in South Australia. Various climatic variables were logged automatically at one edge of the plantation. The relationship between daily sap flow and sapwood area was strongly linear for the edge trees (r2 = 0.97), but only moderately correlated for the inner trees (r2 = 0.46), suggesting an edge effect. For all trees, sap flow normalized to sapwood area (Qs) increased with potential evaporation (PE) initially and then became independent as PE increased further. There was a fairly close correlation between transpiration of the edge and inner trees, implying that water availability was partially responsible for the difference between inner and edge trees. However, the ratio of edge tree to inner tree transpiration differed from unity, indicating differences in canopy conductance, which were estimated by an inverse form of the Penman-Monteith equation. When canopy conductances were less than a critical value, there was a strong linear relationship between Qs of the edge and inner trees. When canopy conductances of the edge trees were greater than the critical value, the slope of the linear relationship was steeper, indicating greater transpiration of the edge trees compared with the inner trees. This was interpreted as evidence for enhancement of transpiration of the edge trees by advection of wind energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]