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This study used state-level data on expenditures since 1977 to study the forces underlying the shift in state financing of higher education. The focus is on interactions between state appropriations for higher education, other state budget items, especially Medicaid, and the business cycle. The first section documents the substantial decline in state support for higher education over the past two decades. The second section examines the causes of that decline, focusing particularly on expansions in the Medicaid program and the implications for state higher education spending. The third section explores the effects of the business cycle on higher education subsidies. The fourth section briefly examines the impact of declines in state appropriations for higher education on the relative quality of public higher education institutions, which is to be discussed in more detail in a forthcoming companion paper. The principal reason offered for trends in state financing of higher education is fiscal pressure from other state budget requirements. The underlying story that emerges from this analysis is that pressure from other state budget items, especially Medicaid, has been crowding out appropriations for higher education. The pattern from the 1990s suggests that reductions in higher education appropriations are implemented during an economic downturn and then made permanent by failing to raise appropriations substantially during the subsequent economic recovery. (Contains 23 figures, 12 tables, and 35 references.) (SLD)

An empirical analysis used data for 12 European countries from the 1988-1997 European Community Labour Force Survey to assess the effects of cyclical changes in aggregate economic conditions, changing youth cohort sizes, increasing educational expansion, and structural changes in labor demand on new labor force participants. Emphasis was on the unemployment risks and occupational allocations of these labor market entrants. The study found that unemployment risks have closely followed the evolution of aggregate economic conditions with only a little impact from demographic factors. Changes in occupational allocation, in turn, are much dependent on the relative evolution of educational expansion and professionalization tendencies. In addition, these trends do not affect all educational leavers evenly. The lowest qualified are most heavily affected by cyclical changes in economic conditions, while leavers from university-level education have been more strongly affected by trends of changing occupational attainment. Increasing labor force professionalization is found to contribute to increasing labor market difficulties among the lowest qualified. (Contains 83 references.) (KC)

Cyclical and structural issues in engineering skills formation in Great Britain were studied through a review of recent employment patterns, income patterns, employment projections, recent trends in education and training, and recent developments in technology and work organization. The review focused on the following issues: (1) the extent and nature of mismatches between the supply of and demand for engineering skills; (2) the extent to which engineering skill problems are cyclical as opposed to structural; and (3) the adequacy of current arrangements for engineering education and training. The following were among the main conclusions: (1) engineering skill problems are most apparent when they manifest in the form of external recruitment difficulties at the peak of each business cycle; (2) long-term trends in training levels and recruitment difficulties in the past 3 decades reflect structural rather than merely cyclical weaknesses in the British system of engineering training; (3) recent changes in markets and work organizations have significantly increased engineering employers' expectations of graduates; and (4) one way to expand modern apprenticeship (MA) numbers would be to develop preapprenticeship courses to prepare underqualified 16- and 17-year-olds for later entry to MA schemes. (Fourteen tables/figures are included. The bibliography lists 34 references.) (MN)

Data assembled from the sequence of Current Population Survey (CPS) tenure supplements for 1973, 1978, 1981, 1983, 1987, and 1991 were analyzed along with demographic characteristics and other variables available from the general CPS to identify changes in job retention rates in the United States throughout the 1980s. The analysis was based on Hall's method of estimating the distribution of eventual job tenure and Ureta's refinement of that procedure, which makes it possible to estimate historical 1-year job retention rates. Consideration was given to the possible effect of business cycles on retention rates. Overall, job retention rates remained fairly stable throughout the 1980s and early 1990s. Disaggregation of the data by current tenure, age, race, sex, education, and occupation did, however, reveal some changes in 4-year retention rates by demographic group that correspond loosely to changes in the wage structure. Retention rates have, for example, declined for high school dropouts and high school graduates relative to college graduates and for blacks relative to whites. Except for the aggregate results for blacks, most of those changes were small and statistically insignificant, however. (Contains 10 tables/figures and 21 references.) (MN)

Japan's economic success is clear evidence that purposeful investments in the educational quality of the work force pay major dividends in terms of enhanced productivity and increased competitiveness. The key elements of the Japanese system are, in fact, less than 40 years old. The current recession is a reminder of the transitory nature of economic trends. Within Japan, most discussions of the work force begin with the looming shortage of first-time workers and an expensive surplus of retirees. The Japanese have a relatively limited number of alternatives: increased use of female workers, greater use of older workers, increased number of guest workers, basic redistribution of workers from labor intensive sectors, and accelerated export of production jobs. The tightness of Japanese labor markets is a function of migration patterns that have yielded an economy and population increasingly concentrated in three areas: Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya. Side effects of educational competition include dwindling numbers of students in technical and vocational schools and increased costs of educating children that deter larger families and prolong the effects of the "baby bust." Changes for Japan may include a less rigid labor market, a shift to educational programs outside the firm, and an effort to apply the lessons of manufacturing efficiency to service sector industries. Numerous graphs and charts supplement the text. (YLB)

Social statistics may exaggerate the degree of hardship caused by labor market problems. Yet, in many ways social statistics underestimate the degree of hardship caused by extended unemployment, underemployment, and low wages. Therefore, new measures are needed to reassess long-term and cyclical labor market developments, the changing status of minorities, the interrelationships between family patterns and employment problems, the effectiveness of income transfers for the working poor, and alternative macroeconomic policies. The proposed hardship measurement and assessment system consists of three sets of core indicators to measure the adequacy of individual earnings, family earnings, and family incomes in terms of both the numbers who fall below minimum standards and dollar shortfalls relative to these standards. After using these measures to examine hardship trends over the period between 1974 and 1980, researchers determined that the number who suffer severe hardship as a result of labor market problems experienced during the year far exceeds average annual unemployment. In addition, the burdens of hardship are even more maldistributed than are those of unemployment. (Appendixes to the report include technical details of the hardship measures and hardship data for the period from 1974 through 1980.) (MN)

Except for the increasing labor force shares of youth in the early 1970s, the impact of the changing age and sex composition of the labor force did not make a significant contribution to rising unemployment rates between 1969 and 1982. When compared to the recoveries over that period, however, the current recovery is marked by a significant impact of the changing shares of different age groups, especially the declining share of teenagers. In general, the movement of the baby-boom cohort into prime age groups with their relatively lower rates of unemployment has tended to decrease the natural rate of unemployment. During 1969-88, the average level of educational attainment has increased. Job loss was the dominant reason for unemployment from 1962 to 1988. Although there was a dramatic decrease in the labor force share of the manufacturing sector and a relative increase in the service-producing sector, industry decomposition of the labor force suggests these shifts did not have a significant impact on the secularly rising unemployment rates between 1969 and 1982. Across that period there was a dramatic increase in the proportion of individuals who are long-term unemployed, an increase that has not been reversed by the current upward trend. That increase has been due to increased representation of 25- to 44-year-old males and people who have lost jobs. No single industry has experienced disproportionate gains or losses in its share of total long-term unemployment. Unemployment may be reduced by increasing aggregate demand through fiscal policy, increasing investments in education and training, improving information on job availability and persistence, and increasing the flexible use of labor within firms. (The document contains 9 tables, 4 charts, and 27 references.) (CML)

This volume consists of a report of the President concerning the state of small businesses as well as the U.S. Small Business Administration annual report on small business and competition. Addressed in the President's report are the following issues: the role of small business in the economy; the foundations of small business policy; and problems and policies of particular interest to small business (including cyclical sensitivity, inflation, interest rates, access to capital, tax incentives, regulation, antitrust, federal procurement, export, and a small business data base). The U.S. Small Business Administration annual report consists of four chapters and seven appendixes dealing with various topics, including small business in the U.S. economy, current and historical trends in the small business sector, financial developments in the small business sector, the effect of federal policy on small business, the Small Business Data Base, as well as other sources of business information, minority-owned and female-owned businesses, small business provisions of the securities laws, analysis of the Economic Tax Recovery Act of 1981, federal procurement for small businesses, and federal agency small business offices. (MN)

Recent research on the impact of economics on mental and physical health has raised fundamental questions about structural elements in the macro-economy and their role in creating stress. This paper reviews and integrates these sometimes conflicting findings into a cohesive model. Structural elements of our current economic system are identified as possible major stressors: (1) instability in the business cycle; (2) unemployment; (3) inequality in income distribution; and (4) fragmentation of the work process. Research is reviewed linking the economic cycle with suicide and increased psychological symptoms as well as physical illness. Intervention on the institutional level is suggested since these macro-economic elements appear to be more powerful than the individual coping mechanisms of some demographic subgroups. The implications of these findings for primary prevention are discussed. (Author/JAC)

This paper discusses the economic development challenge to vocational education. It begins with an overview of the dynamic processes of technological change and industrial development and their implications for jobs and training. Several issues are then raised regarding planning, implementation, and evaluation of vocational education programs as they seek to facilitate state and local economic development. Four specific topics are addressed that highlight the importance of making critical distinctions between short-term and long-term economic development: (1) future skill surpluses, (2) customized training, (3) jobs in branch plants versus indigenous new firms, and (4) serving new skills at the expense of the old. Thereafter, the paper poses important research questions that should be addressed in the national assessment of vocational education. The 10 issues are categorized by three major areas: the responsiveness of vocational education to changing labor market needs, balancing short-term and longer-term development objectives, and vocational education and the education and training network. The final section comments on a case study research approach to generate answers to these questions. A six-page reference list concludes the document. (YLB)

Four papers are featured. The first is a statistical overview and analysis of past, present and future happenings to small communities in the Region; it focuses on two indicators: (1) population growth or declining community class size and, (2) the changing distribution of commercial outlets by community class size. The other three papers report on provincial governmental policy and program intentions and actions having a bearing on the viability of small communities. "Balanced Population and Economic Growth Policy for Alberta" outlines basic foundations respecting economic policies and economic development goals. Elements of the Regional Development Program are discussed along with rural/urban development, rural development projects, regional business and industrial development, and communications strategy. The third paper summarizes public sector initiatives brought to bear upon small Saskatchewan towns; it discusses general and specific policy and program controls with specific reference to intergovernmental components. The final paper describes the agriculture/rural community situation prior to the introduction of the "Stay Option" in Manitoba, including the policy basis for the option, the program components, associated policy thrusts, and the impact upon the people and enterprises of the area. (DS)

This paper examines the effects of cyclical economic fluctuations on the occupational mobility of younger black and white male workers during the years between 1966 and 1975. Two measures of occupational standing were applied to 805 men who in 1966 were between the ages of 14 and 24 years. Their occupational position for the 10-year period was compared with economic upturns and recessions to ascertain racial differences in occupational gain. The analysis showed that younger black men were more likely to be at the bottom of the occupational categories than were younger white men. In all categories blacks held lower status positions than did whites. Both blacks and whites moved up the occupational hierarchy as groups, but when whites began in the same categories as blacks, they improved their occupational status more than blacks did over the 10 years. During the economic downturn of the 1970s, black craft workers suffered large losses in occupational status relative to white craft workers. (VM)

Presents a bibliography in line with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's economic survey of Japan for 2004. "A Near Rational Model of the Business Cycle, With Wage and Price Inertia," by G. Akerlof and J. L. Yellen, from "The Quarterly Journal of Economics," vol. 100; "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," by G. Akerlof and colleagues, from the "Brookings Paper on Economic Activity," vol. 1996, issue 1142; "Why the Japanese Economy Is Not Growing: Micro Barriers to Productivity Growth," by M. Aoki and colleagues, from the Mckinsey Global Institute in Washington.