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In early studies, northern vegetation response to global warming recognised both increases in biomass/cover and shrinking of species' distributional ranges. Subsequent field measurements focussed on vegetation cover and biomass increases ("greening"), and more recently decreases ("browning"). However, satellite observations show that more than 50% of arctic vegetation has not changed significantly despite rapid warming. While absence of change in remote sensing data does not necessarily mean no ecological change on the ground, the significant proportion of the Arctic that appears to be stable in the face of considerable climate change points to a greater need to understand Arctic ecosystem stability. In this paper, we performed an extensive review of the available literature to seek balances or imbalances between research focussing on "greening", "browning" and "stability/no change". We find that greening studies dominate the literature though two relatively small areas of the Arctic are disproportionately represented for this main change process. Critically, there are too few studies anywhere investigating stability. We highlight the need to understand the mechanisms driving Arctic ecosystem stability, and the potential longer-term consequences of remaining stable in a rapidly changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is rapidly warming posing a significant threat to underlying permafrost. Permafrost degradation has already resulted in extensive damage to the Arctic's built infrastructure, putting communities and industries at risk. Projected climate warming will further reduce the capacity of permafrost to support infrastructure, thereby requiring a rethinking of construction and development of permafrost regions in the future. This paper focuses on three Arctic regions with a substantial presence of population and infrastructure on permafrost: USA (Alaska), Canada, and Russia. The three regions' permafrost construction practices are examined in order to identify best practices and major gaps. We identify a lack of standardized, codified construction guidelines; an absence of permafrost-geotechnical monitoring in communities; barriers to integrating climate scenarios into future planning; limited data sharing; and low numbers of permafrost professionals as major constraints limiting the region's resilience in the face of climate change. Refining building practices and standards, implementing operational permafrost monitoring systems, developing downscaled climate projections, and integrating local knowledge will minimize the impacts of permafrost degradation under rapidly warming climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea ice continues to decline across many regions of the Arctic, with remaining ice becoming increasingly younger and more dynamic. These changes alter the habitats of microbial life that live within the sea ice, which support healthy functioning of the marine ecosystem and provision of resources for human-consumption, in addition to influencing biogeochemical cycles (e.g. air–sea CO2 exchange). With the susceptibility of sea ice ecosystems to climate change, there is a pressing need to fill knowledge gaps surrounding sea ice habitats and their microbial communities. Of fundamental importance to this goal is the development of new methodologies that permit effective study of them. Based on outcomes from the DiatomARCTIC project, this paper integrates existing knowledge with case studies to provide insight on how to best document sea ice microbial communities, which contributes to the sustainable use and protection of Arctic marine and coastal ecosystems in a time of environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts on Indigenous peoples in remote regions pose unique institutional challenges and opportunities for governments. Reducing vulnerability and enabling collaborative knowledge creation through the inclusive consideration of Indigenous peoples' perspectives in government and institutional efforts can help to advance adaptation to environmental change. In Northern Canada, Indigenous communities and multiple levels of the Canadian government and its institutions, including the Canadian Armed Forces, share the commensurate task and responsibility of responding to, tracking, monitoring and adapting to rapid climatic changes and impacts associated with climate change in the Arctic. In this review paper, we explore how Canadian governments may effectively work as partners and catalysts for advancing mutually beneficial climate change adaptation efforts with Indigenous peoples and communities affected by climate change in remote Arctic regions of Northern Canada. We review knowledge and concepts related to Indigenous traditional ecological knowledge in the context of institutional adaptation planning and policy approaches in remote regions. First, we provide a geographical and contextual background that informs the efforts of institutional partners and Indigenous communities seeking to mutually address long-term challenges associated with adapting to climate change, specifically in the remote Canadian Arctic. Second, we unpack knowledge for advancing collaborative adaptation efforts between Indigenous peoples and institutions in the Arctic. We identify relevant gaps and opportunities for enhancing institutional approaches to climate change adaptation involving Indigenous peoples in remote regions like the Arctic. We conclude with a summary of policy relevant insights for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in climate, land-use and pollution are having disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity of arctic and mountain ecosystems. While these impacts are well-documented for many areas of the Arctic and alpine regions, some isolated and inaccessible mountain areas are poorly studied. Furthermore, even in well-studied regions, assessments of biodiversity and species responses to environmental change are biased towards vascular plants and cryptogams, particularly bryophytes are far less represented. This paper aims to document the environments of the remote and inaccessible Altai-Sayan mountain mires and particularly their bryofloras where threatened species exist and species new to the regional flora are still being found. As these mountain mires are relatively inaccessible, changes in drivers of change and their ecosystem and biodiversity impacts have not been monitored. However, the remoteness of the mires has so far protected them and their species. In this study, we describe the mires, their bryophyte species and the expected impacts of environmental stressors to bring attention to the urgency of documenting change and conserving these pristine ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies on the presence of atmospheric fungi in both Arctic and Antarctic polar areas are rare, and many of them were carried out briefly. Currently, when climate change is a fact, polar areas may be subject to various changes and fluctuations, negatively affecting sensitive polar ecosystems. The paper presents the results of tests on presence of fungi in the air over 30 years after the last investigations at the Svalbard Archipelago. A total of fifteen taxa of fungi were isolated in area of Longyearbyen, the majority of which were saprotrophic fungi of the genus Cladosporium that are associated with dead organic matter. Therefore, the presence of this taxon may be a good bioindicator of changes occurring in the Arctic environment, indirectly indicating the melting of glaciers and exposing increasingly larger areas inhabited by microorganisms, including fungi, which increase in number in the air. Additionally, the number of tourists visiting Longyearbyen is increasing, which may significantly affect the number and type of fungi in the air. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite perceptions of high water availability, adequate access to sufficient water resources remains a major challenge in Alaska. This paper uses a participatory modeling approach to investigate household water vulnerability in remote Alaska and to examine factors that affect water availability and water access. Specifically, the work asks: how do water policy stakeholders conceptualize the key processes that affect household water vulnerability in the context of rural Alaska? Fourteen water policy stakeholders participated in the modeling process, which included defining the problem of household water vulnerability and constructing individual causal loop diagrams (CLDs) that represent their conceptualization of household water vulnerability. Individual CLDs were subsequently combined and five sub-models emerged: environmental, economic, infrastructure, social, and health. The environmental and economic sub-models of the CLD are explored in depth. In the environmental sub-model, climate change and environmental barriers due to geography influence household water vulnerability. In the economic sub-model, four processes and one feedback loop affect household water vulnerability, including operations and maintenance funding, the strength of the rural Alaskan economy, and the impact of regulations. To overcome household water vulnerability and make households more resilient, stakeholders highlighted policy solutions under five themes: economics, social, regulatory, technological, and environmental. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation purposes, in particular along the Northeast Passage. Based on comparison with the observed sea ice concentrations for validation, the best performing Earth system models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) program (CMIP5-Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) were selected to provide ranges of potential future sea ice conditions. Our results showed that, despite a general tendency toward less sea ice cover in summer, internal variability will still be large and shipping along the Northeast Passage might still be hampered by sea ice blocking narrow passages. This will make sea ice forecasts on shorter time and space scales and Arctic weather prediction even more important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme heatwaves pose a significant threat to a wide range of environmental, ecological, and social systems. The rapid warming of the Arctic and the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which are the most prominent features in the Northern Hemisphere in the context of climate change, has significantly influenced mid-latitude extreme events in recent decades. This study utilizes observational data and numerical simulations to demonstrate that the variations in Arctic amplification (AA) and TP amplification (TA) play a crucial role in the interannual variability of summer heatwaves (HWs) in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) (HWs_YRB) region. The HWs_YRB is associated with a zonally oriented barotropic high-pressure system anchored over the YRB region. The spatial distribution and intensity of the HWs_YRB are impacted by the synergistic effects of AA and TA, via a meridional atmospheric tripole pattern and double jets over East Asia. Furthermore, AA primarily impacts the geographical extent of the HWs_YRB, while TA plays a critical role in determining the intensity of the HWs_YRB. Our findings provide an innovative perspective on the linkage between the pronounced warming observed in the Arctic and TP and the occurrence of summer HWs_YRB, enhancing our comprehension of the climatic consequences of the rapid changes in these two geographical regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant biomass is a fundamental ecosystem attribute that is sensitive to rapid climatic changes occurring in the Arctic. Nevertheless, measuring plant biomass in the Arctic is logistically challenging and resource intensive. Lack of accessible field data hinders efforts to understand the amount, composition, distribution, and changes in plant biomass in these northern ecosystems. Here, we present The Arctic plant aboveground biomass synthesis dataset, which includes field measurements of lichen, bryophyte, herb, shrub, and/or tree aboveground biomass (g m−2) on 2,327 sample plots from 636 field sites in seven countries. We created the synthesis dataset by assembling and harmonizing 32 individual datasets. Aboveground biomass was primarily quantified by harvesting sample plots during mid- to late-summer, though tree and often tall shrub biomass were quantified using surveys and allometric models. Each biomass measurement is associated with metadata including sample date, location, method, data source, and other information. This unique dataset can be leveraged to monitor, map, and model plant biomass across the rapidly warming Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the retreat of glaciers, new ponds and lakes are often formed. These are gradually colonised and become more productive as vegetation develops in their catchments, creating more complex food webs. Near the Jakobshavn Isbræ in West Greenland, we studied trophic structure and food web complexity using stable isotopes in 26 lakes belonging to two different age groups (19 new lakes and 7 nearby older (> 150 years) ones). The older lakes had significantly higher total nitrogen and pelagic chlorophyll-a concentrations, as well as a higher organic matter content in the surface sediment. The biomass and richness of cladocerans, copepods and rotifers were higher in the older lakes and so was the zooplankton:phytoplankton biomass ratio. Multivariate analyses showed a marked difference between the zooplankton communities of new and older lakes. Layman food web metrics indicated higher food chain length and width of invertebrates (zooplankton and benthic macroinvertebrates) in the older lakes, being significantly higher in lakes with fish. Our findings highlight a potential sequence of succession occurring in lakes created by glacial retreat in the Arctic, implying an increase in food web complexity and higher taxonomic (and likely also functional) diversity following ageing and increased nutrient state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This perspective paper argues for an urgent need to monitor a set of 12 concrete, measurable indicators of food and water security in the Arctic over time. Such a quantitative indicator approach may be viewed as representing a reductionist rather than a holistic perspective, but is nevertheless necessary for actually knowing what reality aspects to monitor in order to accurately understand, quantify, and be able to project critical changes to food and water security of both indigenous and non-indigenous people in the Arctic. More relevant indicators may be developed in the future, taking us further toward reconciliation between reductionist and holistic approaches to change assessment and understanding. However, the potential of such further development to improved holistic change assessment is not an argument not to urgently start to monitor and quantify the changes in food and water security indicators that are immediately available and adequate for the Arctic context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the relationship between climate change and subsistence behaviors of indigenous peoples in Arctic regions of North America. It is noted that those most affected by such change are, typically, those peoples who continue to carry out subsistence practices through which they acquire a significant percentage of food from the land. It is these very peoples who also may offer valuable observations about changes which they are personally witnessing. A case study example, the Nets'aii Gwich'in community of Arctic Village, Alaska, is presented. Using Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) and villagers' observations as the primary data source, it is shown that levels of subsistence activity in this community are decreasing. Villagers believe that climate changes are playing a key role in the ability to access country foods. They believe too that there are fewer animals and that the food now available is of poorer quality than in the past. It is concluded that the information and data presented here concerning villager perceptions should be viewed as only part of the explanation for changes in subsistence behaviors. More research in the coming years is called for to further help distinguish the impacts of climate change upon subsistence activities from other social and economic forces which also are playing a role in such indigenous communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in climate and ultraviolet radiation levels in the Arctic will have far-reaching impacts, affecting aquatic species at various trophic levels, the physical and chemical environment that makes up their habitat, and the processes that act on and within freshwater ecosystems. Interactions of climatic variables, such as temperature and precipitation, with freshwater ecosystems are highly complex and can propagate through the ecosystem in ways that are difficult to project. This is partly due to a poor understanding of arctic freshwater systems and their basic interrelationships with climate and other environmental variables, and partly due to a paucity of long-term freshwater monitoring sites and integrated hydro-ecological research programs in the Arctic. The papers in this special issue are an abstraction of the analyses performed by 25 international experts and their associated networks on Arctic freshwater hydrology and related aquatic ecosystems that was initially published by the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) in 2005 as "Chapter 8- Freshwater Ecosystems and Fisheries". The papers provide a broad overview of the general hydrological and ecological features of the various freshwater ecosystems in the Arctic, including descriptions of each ACIA region, followed by a review of historical changes in freshwater systems during the Holocene. This is followed by an assessment of the effects of climate change on broad-scale hydro-ecology; aquatic biota and ecosystem structure and function; and arctic fish and fisheries. Potential synergistic and cumulative effects are also discussed, as are the roles of ultraviolet radiation and contaminants. The nature and complexity of many of the effects are illustrated using case studies from around the circumpolar north, together with a discussion of important threshold responses (i. E. , those that produce stepwise and/or nonlinear effects). The issue concludes with summary the key findings, a list of gaps in scientific understanding, and policy-related recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Current predictions of the effects of climate change indicate that the Arctic may experience a larger than average increase in temperature with consequent changes to the length of the snow-free active summer period, winter snow depth and amount and frequency of summer precipitation being highly probable. This paper reports on measurements of carbon dioxide flux at a high arctic site at Ny-Ålesund (78° 56′ N, 11° 55′ E), Svalbard and the physical climate variables that largely control this flux. It is shown that during three important precipitation-free periods of the active summer period, namely post snowmelt, high summer, and early autumn, the net balance between CO2 flux from the soil (due to respiration of roots and soil organisms) and CO2 assimilation by the vegetation is controlled largely by soil temperature and solar radiation. A simple combined photosynthetic assimilation-soil respiration model is shown to be capable of simulating the net CO2 flux during mid-summer, but is less proficient in the post snowmelt period and in early autumn when the simple models’ inability to simulate the effects of emergent growth and ponding during the former and senescence, freezing temperatures and dew during the latter indicates the need for a more complex descriptive model. The net CO2 flux during the measurement periods progresses from a net CO2 source of 0.3 gC m-2 d-1 during late snowmelt to a mid summer net CO2 sink of -0.39 gC m-2 d-1, returning to a net CO2 source of 0.1 gC m-2 d-1 in the early autumn. Simple extrapolation of the data indicates that, during the active summer season in 1995, this site was a net sink of CO2 of approximately - 9 gC m-2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic tundra is a relatively young and new type of biome and is especially sensitive to the impacts of global warming. However, little is known about how the Arctic flora was shaped over time. Here we investigate the origin and evolutionary dynamics of the Arctic flora by sampling 32 angiosperm clades that together encompass 3626 species. We show that dispersal into the Arctic and in situ diversification within the Arctic have similar trends through time, initiating at approximately 10–9 Ma, increasing sharply around 2.6 Ma, and peaking around 1.0–0.7 Ma. Additionally, we discover the existence of a long-term dispersal corridor between the Arctic and western North America. Our results suggest that the initiation and diversification of the Arctic flora might have been jointly driven by progressive landscape and climate changes and sea-level fluctuations since the early Late Miocene. These findings have important conservation implications given rapidly changing climate conditions in the Arctic. The Arctic tundra is a relatively young biome. Here, the authors sample 32 angiosperm clades encompassing 3600+ species and find that both long-term dispersal and in situ speciation may have contributed to Arctic flora assembly, in association with landscape, climate and sea-level changes since the early Late Miocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid climate and socioeconomic changes are transforming Arctic human–earth systems. An integral part of these systems is mobility, which encompasses the transport of humans and goods into, out of, and between Arctic regions. Impacts of climate and socioeconomic drivers on Arctic mobility are heterogenous. Methodologies are needed to quantify these impacts in measures that can be linked with broader socioeconomic systems. This article reviews existing methods and organizes them into a conceptual framework to understand trends and gaps in the literature. We found methods quantifying impacts of a range of climate drivers on most transportation modes present in the Arctic, but few methods focused on socioeconomic drivers. In addition, underrepresented were methods explicitly considering adaptive capacity of transportation systems. We provide insight into the data and relationships relevant to understanding impacts of Arctic change on transportation systems, laying a foundation for future work that investigates how these impacts fit into broader human–arth systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate changes occurring in the Arctic are expressed in an increase in extreme values, as well as in a wide range of permafrost degradation processes, the state of which, being sensitive to climate change, causes the activation of rapidly proceeding exogenous processes. To predict the climate in the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug for the mid-twenty-first century, data from 42 models of the CMIP6 were used. The temperature in January is expected to increase by about 3.5°C (on the coast of the Kara Sea even by 4.5°C), and in July, by ~2.5°C everywhere. The 5 and 95% quantiles will increase by 3 and 4.5°C in January and by 2 and 3°C in July, respectively. The amount of monthly precipitation will increase by an average of 10% in January and will not change in July. The 95% quantile values will increase by 30 and 10% in January and July, respectively. The number of frost days will be reduced. The warming in combination with an increase in precipitation will lead to an increase in the activity of avalanches and slush flows on the eastern slopes of the Urals and tell on the characteristics of landslides, abrasion, suffusion, erosion, thermokarst, and solifluction. Climate-dependent branches of the economy should be ready for projected changes in the natural environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic stream biofilm responses to ongoing climate-related changes in physical and chemical conditions have major implications for stream food webs and biogeochemical cycles. Yet, such effects have rarely been studied outside summer months or at sub-catchment scales in the Arctic. We used deployments of nutrient diffusing substrates (NDS) to assess the spatial (20 deployments) and seasonal patterns (10 deployments) and physical and chemical drivers of nutrient limitation within an Arctic stream catchment. Results show that nutrient limitation of autotrophic processes was common during summer, but that light inhibited biomass accrual under the ice in winter. Alongside single N, P and C responses, co-limitation dominated the overall pattern of limitation over time and across the catchment. However, the primary limiting nutrient to autotrophs changed from N to P in parts of the catchment with higher N concentrations. As Arctic studies are often conducted at individual sites during summer, these may miss shifts in the drivers of stream productivity that arise from variable nutrient, temperature, and light regimes. Our results caution against focusing on one single most important limiting nutrient, as we found that this can shift seasonally and over small spatial scales in this Arctic catchment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic region is experiencing drastic climatic changes bringing about potential ecological shifts. Here, we explored marine biodiversity and potential species associations across eight Arctic marine areas between 2000 and 2019. We compiled species occurrences for a subset of 69 marine taxa (i.e., 26 apex predators and 43 mesopredators) and environmental factors to predict taxon-specific distributions using a multi-model ensemble approach. Arctic-wide temporal trends of species richness increased in the last 20 years and highlighted potential emerging areas of species accrual due to climate-driven species redistribution. Further, regional species associations were dominated by positive co-occurrences among species pairs with high frequencies in the Pacific and Atlantic Arctic areas. Comparative analyses of species richness, community composition, and co-occurrence between high and low summer sea ice concentrations revealed contrasting impacts of and detected areas vulnerable to sea ice changes. In particular, low (high) summer sea ice generally resulted in species gains (loss) in the inflow and loss (gains) in the outflow shelves, accompanied by substantial changes in community composition and therefore potential species associations. Overall, the recent changes in biodiversity and species co-occurrences in the Arctic were driven by pervasive poleward range shifts, especially for wide-ranging apex predators. Our findings highlight the varying regional impacts of warming and sea ice loss on Arctic marine communities and provide important insights into the vulnerability of Arctic marine areas to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is an epicenter of complex environmental and socioeconomic change. Strengthened connections between Arctic and non-Arctic systems could threaten or enhance Arctic sustainability, but studies of external influences on the Arctic are scattered and fragmented in academic literature. Here, we review and synthesize how external influences have been analyzed in Arctic-coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) literature. Results show that the Arctic is affected by numerous external influences nearby and faraway, including global markets, climate change, governance, military security, and tourism. However, apart from climate change, these connections are infrequently the focus of Arctic CHANS analyses. We demonstrate how Arctic CHANS research could be enhanced and research gaps could be filled using the holistic framework of metacoupling (human–nature interactions within as well as between adjacent and distant systems). Our perspectives provide new approaches to enhance the sustainability of Arctic systems in an interconnected world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is warming faster than any other region on Earth. Putting this rapid warming into perspective is challenging because instrumental records are often short or incomplete in polar regions and precisely-dated temperature proxies with high temporal resolution are largely lacking. Here, we provide this long-term perspective by reconstructing past summer temperature variability at Yamal Peninsula – a hotspot of recent warming – over the past 7638 years using annually resolved tree-ring records. We demonstrate that the recent anthropogenic warming interrupted a multi-millennial cooling trend. We find the industrial-era warming to be unprecedented in rate and to have elevated the summer temperature to levels above those reconstructed for the past seven millennia (in both 30-year mean and the frequency of extreme summers). This is undoubtedly of concern for the natural and human systems that are being impacted by climatic changes that lie outside the envelope of natural climatic variations for this region. A 7,638 yr summer temperature reconstruction based on subfossil trees buried in the Siberian Arctic shows that recent warming is unprecedented and interrupted a multi-millennial cooling trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analytical conditions for estimating the contribution of various internal and external factors to the formation of Arctic (polar) amplification under warming of the Earth's climate system with strongest changes in the surface temperature at high latitudes compared to lower latitudes have been obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation changes projected for the end of the twenty-first century show an increase of more than 50 per cent in the Arctic regions. This marked increase, which is among the highest globally, has previously been attributed primarily to enhanced poleward moisture transport from lower latitudes. Here we use state-of-the-art global climate models to show that the projected increases in Arctic precipitation over the twenty-first century, which peak in late autumn and winter, are instead due mainly to strongly intensified local surface evaporation (maximum in winter), and only to a lesser degree due to enhanced moisture inflow from lower latitudes (maximum in late summer and autumn). Moreover, we show that the enhanced surface evaporation results mainly from retreating winter sea ice, signalling an amplified Arctic hydrological cycle. This demonstrates that increases in Arctic precipitation are firmly linked to Arctic warming and sea-ice decline. As a result, the Arctic mean precipitation sensitivity (4.5 per cent increase per degree of temperature warming) is much larger than the global value (1.6 to 1.9 per cent per kelvin). The associated seasonally varying increase in Arctic precipitation is likely to increase river discharge and snowfall over ice sheets (thereby affecting global sea level), and could even affect global climate through freshening of the Arctic Ocean and subsequent modulations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is undergoing unprecedented change. Observations and models demonstrate significant perturbations to the physical and biological systems. Arctic species and ecosystems, particularly in the marine environment, are subject to a wide range of pressures from human activities, including exposure to a complex mixture of pollutants, climate change and fishing activity. These pressures affect the ecosystem services that the Arctic provides. Current international policies are attempting to support sustainable exploitation of Arctic resources with a view to balancing human wellbeing and environmental protection. However, assessments of the potential combined impacts of human activities are limited by data, particularly related to pollutants, a limited understanding of physical and biological processes, and single policies that are limited to ecosystem-level actions. This manuscript considers how, when combined, a suite of existing tools can be used to assess the impacts of pollutants in combination with other anthropogenic pressures on Arctic ecosystems, and on the services that these ecosystems provide. Recommendations are made for the advancement of targeted Arctic research to inform environmental practices and regulatory decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projecting the consequences of warming and sea-ice loss for Arctic marine food web and fisheries is challenging due to the intricate relationships between biology and ice. We used StrathE2EPolar, an end-to-end (microbes-to-megafauna) food web model incorporating ice-dependencies to simulate climate-fisheries interactions in the Barents Sea. The model was driven by output from the NEMO-MEDUSA earth system model, assuming RCP 8.5 atmospheric forcing. The Barents Sea was projected to be > 95% ice-free all year-round by the 2040s compared to > 50% in the 2010s, and approximately 2 °C warmer. Fisheries management reference points (FMSY and BMSY) for demersal fish (cod, haddock) were projected to increase by around 6%, indicating higher productivity. However, planktivorous fish (capelin, herring) reference points were projected to decrease by 15%, and upper trophic levels (birds, mammals) were strongly sensitive to planktivorous fish harvesting. The results indicate difficult trade-offs ahead, between harvesting and conservation of ecosystem structure and function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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In a warming climate, permafrost is likely to be significantly reduced and eventually disappear from the sub-Arctic region. This will affect people at a range of scales, from locally by slumping of buildings and roads, to globally as melting of permafrost will most likely increase the emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas methane, which will further enhance global warming. In order to predict future changes in permafrost, it is crucial to understand what determines the presence or absence of permafrost under current climate conditions, to assess where permafrost is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and to identify where changes are already occurring. The Torneträsk region of northern sub-Arctic Sweden is one area where changes in permafrost have been recorded and where permafrost could be particularly vulnerable to any future climate changes. This paper therefore reviews the various physical, biological, and anthropogenic parameters that determine the presence or absence of permafrost in the Torneträsk region under current climate conditions, so that we can gain an understanding of its current vulnerability and potential future responses to climate change. A patchy permafrost distribution as found in the Torneträsk region is not random, but a consequence of site-specific factors that control the microclimate and hence the surface and subsurface temperature. It is also a product of past as well as current processes. In sub-Arctic areas such as northern Sweden, it is mainly the physical parameters, e.g., topography, soil type, and climate (in particular snow depth), that determine permafrost distribution. Even though humans have been present in the study area for centuries, their impacts on permafrost distribution can more or less be neglected at the catchment level. Because ongoing climate warming is projected to continue and lead to an increased snow cover, the permafrost in the region will most likely disappear within decades, at least at lower elevations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ocean moderates the world's climate through absorption of heat and carbon, but how much carbon the ocean will continue to absorb remains unknown. The North Atlantic Ocean west (Baffin Bay/Labrador Sea) and east (Fram Strait/Greenland Sea) of Greenland features the most intense absorption of anthropogenic carbon globally; the biological carbon pump (BCP) contributes substantially. As Arctic sea-ice melts, the BCP changes, impacting global climate and other critical ocean attributes (e.g. biodiversity). Full understanding requires year-round observations across a range of ice conditions. Here we present such observations: autonomously collected Eulerian continuous 24-month time-series in Fram Strait. We show that, compared to ice-unaffected conditions, sea-ice derived meltwater stratification slows the BCP by 4 months, a shift from an export to a retention system, with measurable impacts on benthic communities. This has implications for ecosystem dynamics in the future warmer Arctic where the seasonal ice zone is expected to expand. The North Atlantic biological pump has the most intense absorption of C globally, but how this will fare in light of climate changes (especially sea-ice melting) is poorly understood. Here the authors present a 24-month continuous time series of physical, chemical, and biological observations in the Fram Strait. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The diet of Indigenous Peoples of North-Western Siberia is characterized by a significant proportion of traditional foods. Eating local products provides a ready-made set of macro- and microelements necessary for life in the challenging conditions of the Arctic. Currently, high consumption of traditional foods is typical in the season of fishing or reindeer slaughter, while out of season the consumption of easily digestible carbohydrates increases. Due to climate change, seasonal fishing and traditional migration routes are disrupted and, therefore, the consumption of traditional foods is decreasing. During 5 years of expeditions, we performed a cross-sectional screening of 985 Indigenous People from three districts of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. We analyzed the seasonality of acquisition and consumption of local reindeer and fish products and studied the traditional food storage among 90 Indigenous fishermen and hunters, who exploit cryostorage. As diet affects health, we studied the benefits of local food. The duration of the consumption season is decreasing and therefore the amount of consumption of local food is decreasing as well. This has adverse effects on health with increasing hypertension dissemination. The creation of stocks of fish and reindeer meat in villages and their year-round sale to the population is a necessary step for ensuring the food security and health of the inhabitants in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the first part, this work reports that during the global "anthropopause" period, that was imposed in March and April 2020 for limiting the spread of COVID-19, the concentrations of basic air pollutants over Europe were reduced by up to 70%. During May and June, the gradual lift of the stringent measures resulted in the recovery of these reductions with pollution concentrations approaching the levels before the lockdown by the end of June 2020. In the second part, this work examines the alleged correlations between the reported cases of COVID-19 and temperature, humidity and particulate matter for March and April 2020 in Europe. It was found that decreasing temperatures and relative humidity with increasing concentrations of particulate matter are correlated with an increase in the number of reported cases during these 2 months. However, when these calculations were repeated for May and June, we found a remarkable drop in the significance of the correlations which leads us to question the generally accepted inverse relation between pandemics and air temperature at least during the warmer months. Such a relationship could not be supported in our study for SARS-CoV-2 virus and the question remains open. In the third and last part of this work, we examine the question referring to the origin of pandemics. In this context we have examined the hypothesis that the observed climate warming in Siberia and the Arctic and the thawing of permafrost could result to the release of trapped in the permafrost pathogens in the atmosphere. We find that although such relations cannot be directly justified, they present a possible horrifying mechanism for the origin of viruses in the future during the developing global warming of our planet in the decades to come. Overall the findings of our study indicate that: (1) the reduction of anthropogenic emissions in Europe during the "anthropopause" period of March and April 2020 was significant, but when the lockdown measures were raised the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants quickly recovered to pre-pandemic levels and therefore any possible climatic feedbacks were negligible; (2) no robust relationship between atmospheric parameters and the spread of COVID-19 cases can be justified in the warmer part of the year and (3) more research needs to be done regarding the possible links between climate change and the release of new pathogens from thawing of permafrost areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent rapid Arctic sea-ice reduction has been well documented in observations, reconstructions and model simulations. However, the rate of sea ice loss is highly variable in both time and space. The western Arctic has seen the fastest sea-ice decline, with substantial interannual and decadal variability, but the underlying mechanism remains unclear. Here we demonstrate, through both observations and model simulations, that the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern is an important driver of western Arctic sea-ice variability, accounting for more than 25% of the interannual variance. Our results suggest that the recent persistent positive PNA pattern has led to increased heat and moisture fluxes from local processes and from advection of North Pacific airmasses into the western Arctic. These changes have increased lower-tropospheric temperature, humidity and downwelling longwave radiation in the western Arctic, accelerating sea-ice decline. Our results indicate that the PNA pattern is important for projections of Arctic climate changes, and that greenhouse warming and the resultant persistent positive PNA trend is likely to increase Arctic sea-ice loss. The fastest sea-ice decline has been observed in the western Arctic, but the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. Here, the authors show that the Pacific North American pattern plays an important role in western Arctic sea-ice variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing substantial changes in hydrology, vegetation, permafrost conditions, and carbon cycling, in response to climatic change and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this century. The total magnitude of these changes results from multiple interactions among these drivers. Field measurements can address the overall responses to different changing drivers, but are less capable of quantifying the interactions among them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of ecosystem changes, and the magnitude of their direct and indirect impacts on subarctic ecosystems, is missing. The Torneträsk area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years, and is one of the most studied sites in the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the drivers of ecosystem change in the Torneträsk area, and propose research priorities identified, by expert assessment, to improve predictions of ecosystem changes. The research priorities identified include understanding impacts on ecosystems brought on by altered frequency and intensity of winter warming events, evapotranspiration rates, rainfall, duration of snow cover and lake-ice, changed soil moisture, and droughts. This case study can help us understand the ongoing ecosystem changes occurring in the Torneträsk area, and contribute to improve predictions of future ecosystem changes at a larger scale. This understanding will provide the basis for the future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is getting warmer and wetter. Here, we document two independent examples of how associated extreme precipitation patterns have severe implications for high Arctic ecosystems. The events stand out in a 23-year record of continuous observations of a wide range of ecosystem parameters and act as an early indication of conditions projected to increase in the future. In NE Greenland, August 2015, one-quarter of the average annual precipitation fell during a 9-day intensive rain event. This ranked number one for daily sums during the 1996–2018 period and caused a strong and prolonged reduction in solar radiation decreasing CO2 uptake in the order of 18–23 g C m−2, a reduction comparable to typical annual C budgets in Arctic tundra. In a different type of event, but also due to changed weather patterns, an extreme snow melt season in 2018 triggered a dramatic gully thermokarst causing rapid transformation in ecosystem functioning from consistent annual ecosystem CO2 uptake and low methane exchange to highly elevated methane release, net source of CO2, and substantial export of organic carbon downstream as riverine and coastal input. In addition to climate warming alone, more frequent occurrence of extreme weather patterns will have large implications for otherwise undisturbed tundra ecosystems including their element transport and carbon interactions with the atmosphere and ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing air temperatures are driving widespread changes to Arctic vegetation. In the high Arctic, these changes are patchy and the causes of heterogeneity are not well understood. In this study, we explore the determinants of high Arctic vegetation change over the last three decades on Banks Island, Northwest Territories. We used Landsat imagery (1984–2014) to map long-term trends in vegetation productivity and regional spatial data to investigate the relationships between trends in productivity and terrain position. Field sampling investigated vegetation community composition in different habitat types. Our analysis shows that vegetation productivity changes are substantial on Banks Island, where productivity has increased across about 80% of the study area. Rising productivity levels can be attributed to increasing biomass of the plant communities in both upland and lowland habitats. Our analysis also shows that the magnitude of greening is mediated by terrain characteristics related to soil moisture. Shifts in tundra vegetation will impact wildlife habitat quality, surface energy balance, permafrost dynamics, and the carbon cycle; additional research is needed to explore the effects of more productive vegetation communities on these processes in the high Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative estimates of the relationship between interannual variations in the extent of Antarctic and Arctic sea ice and changes in the surface air temperature in the Northern and Southern hemispheres are obtained using satellite, ground-based, and reanalysis data for the past four decades (1980–2019). It is shown that the previously noted general increase in the extent of Antarctic sea ice observed until recent years from satellite data (available only since the late 1970s) over the background global warming and a rapid decrease in the extent of Arctic sea ice is associated with a regional decrease in the surface temperature at Antarctic latitudes from the end of the 1970s. This is a result of regional manifestation of natural climate variations with periods of up to several decades against the background of global secular warming with a relatively weak temperature trend over the ocean in the Southern Hemisphere. Since 2016, a sharp decrease in the extent of Antarctic sea ice in the Southern Ocean has been observed. The results of the correlation and cross-wavelet analysis indicate significant coherence and negative correlation with the surface temperature of the extent of sea ice in recent decades, not only in the Arctic, but also in the Antarctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Circumpolar North has been changing rapidly within the last decades, and the socioeconomic systems of the Eurasian Arctic and Siberia in particular have displayed the most dramatic changes. Here, anthropogenic drivers of environmental change such as migration and industrialization are added to climate-induced changes in the natural environment such as permafrost thawing and increased frequency of extreme events. Understanding and adapting to both types of changes are important to local and indigenous peoples in the Arctic and for the wider global community due to transboundary connectivity. As local and indigenous peoples, decision-makers and scientists perceive changes and impacts differently and often fail to communicate efficiently to respond to changes adequately, we convened a meeting of the three groups in Salekhard in 2017. The outcomes of the meeting include perceptions of how the three groups each perceive the main issues affecting health and well-being and recommendations for working together better. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Climate models predict that by 2050 the Arctic Ocean will be sea ice free each summer. Removing this barrier between the Atlantic and the Pacific will modify a wide range of ecological processes, including bird migration. Using published information, we identified 29 arctic-breeding seabird species, which currently migrate in the North Atlantic and could shift to a transarctic migration towards the North Pacific. We also identified 24 arctic-breeding seabird species which may shift from a migratory strategy to high-arctic year-round residency. To illustrate the biogeographical consequences of such drastic migratory shifts, we performed an in-depth study of little auks (Alle alle), the most numerous artic seabird. Coupling species distribution models and climatic models, we assessed the adequacy of future wintering and breeding areas for transarctic migrants and high-arctic year-round residents. Further, we used a mechanistic bioenergetics model (Niche Mapper), to compare the energetic costs of current little auk migration in the North Atlantic with potential transarctic and high-arctic residency strategies. Surprisingly, our results indicate that transarctic little auk migration, from the North Atlantic towards the North Pacific, may only be half as costly, energetically, than high-arctic residency or migration to the North Atlantic. Our study illustrates how global warming may radically modify the biogeography of migratory species, and provides a general methodological framework linking migratory energetics and spatial ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the August 2004 expedition by an international team of researchers that extracted 400 meters of sediment core from the Arctic Sea floor. Past climate changes in the Arctic are revealed using the sedimentary record. The technological advances made possible by the expedition are discussed. A seafloor-drilling system is needed to make expeditions easier.

Many Low Arctic tundra regions are currently undergoing a vegetation shift towards increasing growth and groundcover of tall deciduous shrubs due to recent climate warming. Vegetation change directly affects ecosystem carbon balance, but it can also affect soil biogeochemical cycling through physical and biological feedback mechanisms. Recent studies indicate that enhanced snow accumulation around relatively tall shrubs has negligible physical effect on litter decomposition rates. However, these investigations were no more than 3 years, and therefore may be insufficient to detect differences in inherently slow biogeochemical processes. Here, we report a 5-year study near Daring Lake, Canada, comparing Betula neoalaskana foliar litter decay rates within unmanipulated and snowfenced low-stature birch (height: ~ 0.3 m) plots to test the physical effect of experimentally deepened snow, and within tall birch (height: ~ 0.8 m) plots to test the combined physical and biological effects, that is, deepened snow plus strong birch dominance. Having corrected for carbon gain by the colonizing decomposers, actual litter carbon loss increased by approximately 25% in the tall birch relative to both low birch sites. Decay of lignin-like acid unhydrolizable litter residues also accelerated in the tall birch site, and a similar but lower magnitude response in the snowfenced low birch site indicated that physical effects of deepened snow were at least partially responsible. In contrast, deepened snow alone did not affect litter carbon loss. Our findings suggest that a combination of greater litter inputs, altered soil microbial community, enhanced soil nutrient pools, and warmer winter soils together promote relatively fast decomposition of recalcitrant litter carbon in tall birch shrub environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation, active-layer soils, and snow cover regulate energy exchange between the atmosphere and permafrost. Therefore, interactions between changes to tundra vegetation and soil thermal regime will fundamentally affect permafrost in a warmer world. We recorded soil temperatures for approximately 1 year in a Siberian Low Arctic landscape with a known history of alder (Alnus) shrub expansion on disturbed microsites in patterned ground. We recorded near-surface soil temperatures and measured physical properties of soils and vegetation on sorted-circle microsites in four stages of shrubland development: (1) tundra lacking tall shrubs; (2) shrub colonization zones; (3) mature shrublands; and (4) paludified, long-established shrublands with thick soil organic layers. Summer soil temperatures declined with increasing shrub cover and soil organic thickness; shrub colonization suppressed cryoturbation, facilitating the development of continuous vegetation and a surface organic mat on circles. Compared to open tundra, mature shrubs cooled soils by up to 9 °C during summer, but warmed soils by greater than 10 °C in winter presumably because they developed highly insulative snowpacks. Paludified shrublands had the coldest summer active layers, but winter soil temperatures were much colder than mature shrublands and were similar to earlier stages. Our results indicate that although tall shrub establishment dramatically warms winter soils within decades, much of this warming is transient at paludification-prone sites because the buildup of wet peat favors cooling in winter and the stature and snow-trapping capacity of shrubs diminish over time. In the ecosystem we studied, shrub expansion has contrasting effects on active-layer temperatures both seasonally and over longer timescales due to successional processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effects of fish predation on consumers tend to be particularly strong in oligotrophic Arctic and sub-Arctic lakes. However, it remains unclear whether the fish influence the trophic structure and dynamics of naturally eutrophic lakes in these cold environments with simple food web structures. To study this, we conducted a 3-month in situ-controlled experiment in sub-Arctic Lake Mývatn, Iceland. We used the planktivorous fish three-spined sticklebacks ( Gasterosteus aculeatus) as the main top predator. The cladocerans Eurycercus lamellatus and Acroperus harpae were significantly associated with fishless enclosures, whereas the rotifers Polyarthra sp. and Filinia terminalis were significantly associated with the fish enclosures. Fish predation led to a significant increase in phytoplankton biomass and a reduction in the zooplankton:phytoplankton biomass ratio, the mean zooplankton length and cladoceran mean biomass. Fish effects might have been stronger if a bloom of Anabaena in August had not overridden potential cascading effects. We argue that both top-down and bottom-up forces are important for structuring the communities in the lake. Our results suggest that Arctic and sub-Arctic lakes may undergo important changes in trophic dynamics if they get warmer and more nutrient rich as expected with the global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis temperature dataset in the period of 1948-2014, the temperature contrast between the Arctic and equator in the pre- and post periods of the 1976/1977 regime shift is compared. An index measuring the temperature contrast is defined as the difference between the Arctic zone (70° N-90° N) and the equatorial region (10° S-10° N). The variations of the temperature contrast can be mainly explained by the local sea ice variations through sea ice-albedo-temperature feedback before 1976/1977 and the energy transportation to the Arctic together with the local sea ice after 1976/1977. The impacts of the Arctic minus equator (AmE) temperature contrast on the high-level westerly jet, and the polar easterlies show a significant difference during the two periods. A strong temperature anomaly associated with the temperature contrast in the two periods is found in the high latitude, but different patterns are observed at the high and low levels. The correlated water vapor appeared in the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent before 1976/1977 and moved to northeastern Canada and eastern North America after 1976/1977. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on the impact of the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring (GEM) programme. Topics include the brief overview of GEM which seeks to understand the effects of climate change in the Arctic ecosystem, the relevance of GEM in the ecosystem mapping and climate change monitoring in developing strategies beneficial to the needs of the society, and the initiative to spread the data gathered to raise public's awareness on the environmental effects of climate change.

Migratory connectivity by birds may mutually affect different ecosystems over large distances. Populations of geese overwintering in southern areas while breeding in high-latitude ecosystems have increased strongly over the past decades. The increase is likely due to positive feedbacks caused by climate change at both wintering, stopover sites and breeding grounds, land-use practices at the overwintering grounds and protection from hunting. Here we show how increasing goose populations in temperate regions, and increased breeding success in the Arctic, entail a positive feedback with strong impacts on Arctic freshwater ecosystems in the form of eutrophication. This may again strongly affect community composition and productivity of the ponds, due to increased nutrient loadings or birds serving as vectors for new species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents abstracts of papers in this issue dealing with ecosystem impacts of climate changes in the Arctic region. Included are "General Effects of Climate Change on Arctic Fishes and Fish Populations," by James D. Reist, Frederick J. Wrona, Terry D. Prowse, Michael Power, J. Brian Dempson, Richard J. Beamish, Jacquelynne R. King, Theresa J. Carmichael and Chantelle D. Sawatsky, "An Overview of Effects of Climate Change on Selected Arctic Freshwater and Anadromous Fishes," by James D. Reist, Frederick J. Wrona, Terry D. Prowse, Michael Power, J. Brian Dempson, Jacquelynne R. King and Richard J. Beamish and "Effects of Ultraviolet Radiation and Contaminant-related Stressors on Arctic Freshwater Ecosystems'" by Frederick J. Wrona, Terry D. Prowse, James D. Reist, John E. Hobbie, Lucie M. J. Levesque, Robie W. Macdonald and Warwick F. Vincent.

Temperatures were examined at 118 stations located in the Arctic and compared to observations at 50 European stations whose records averaged 200 years and in a few cases extend to the early 1700s. Nearly all stations exhibited warming trends. For each station, the temperature relative to the average value during 1961-1990 was found. The resulting temperature change averaged over the Arctic stations was plotted. For the period 1820-2014, trends were found for the January, July and annual temperatures of 1.0, 0.0 and 0.7 °C per century, respectively. Decadal variations are evident and much of the temperature increase occurred during the 1990s. Over the past century, Siberia, Alaska and Western Canada have experienced somewhat greater warming than Eastern Canada, Greenland and Northern Europe. The temperature change experienced by the Arctic stations during the last two centuries closely tracks that found for the European stations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As Arctic ecosystems experience increases in surface air temperatures, plot-level analyses of tundra vegetation composition suggest that there are important changes occurring in tundra communities that are typified by increases in shrubs and declines in non-vascular species. At the same time analyses of NDVI indicate that the Arctic tundra is greening. Few studies have combined plot-level trends in species composition and cover with remote sensing measurements to understand the linkages between tundra vegetation dynamics and NDVI over time. This study reports on trends in species composition for field plots in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in NE Alaska from 1984 to 2009 and links these trends to the trends in NDVI at fine and coarse scales. Over this time frame there were few changes in plant community composition. None of the five tundra types that were measured had increases in total vegetative cover, and deciduous shrub cover did not show the large increases reported elsewhere. Surface-(plot) measured NDVI was positively correlated to deciduous and evergreen shrub composition suggesting that these functional groups had a strong influence on NDVI values. Modeled values of NDVI, derived from measures of deciduous and evergreen shrub composition over time, decreased slightly for tussock tundra but did not change for other tundra types. This result suggests that surface NDVI did not change over time on these tundra types. Fine-scale (30-m pixels) Landsat NDVI also did not show any changes for the pixels located at the permanent plots (1992-2009). However, coarse-scale (8-km pixels) AVHRR NDVI across the study area did increase (1988-2007). Furthermore, aggregate values of Landsat pixels matching the same area as AVHRR pixels also did not show significant changes over time. Although Landsat NDVI was consistent with surface-measured NDVI, AVHRR NDVI was not. AVHRR NDVI values showed increases that were in neither the field nor Landsat data. This result suggests that AVHRR may be demonstrating increasing trends in NDVI that are not occurring on the ground in some Arctic tundra ecosystems. These results highlight the need to combine remote sensing with on-the-ground measurements of plant community composition and NDVI in the analysis of the responses of Arctic tundra ecosystems to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large uncertainties exist regarding the influence of ongoing climate change to microbially mediated methane cycling in arctic lakes. Specifically, the coupled response of methanogenesis (MG) and methane oxidation (Mox) to increased temperature is poorly understood. Therefore, the effect of temperature on rates of sediment MG and water column Mox in two shallow Arctic Alaskan lakes were evaluated in 2010. To understand the capacity of Mox to offset potential increases in dissolved methane concentrations, kinetics of water column Mox were also determined. Rates of MG responded positively to increased temperature with a greater influence exerted at higher incubation temperatures. Substrate-saturated Mox significantly increased with temperature and was controlled by substrate and temperature interactions. In contrast, substrate-limited Mox was not influenced by temperature and was controlled by substrate supply. Analysis of Mox kinetics pointed to a community of water column dwelling methane oxidizing bacteria that are capable of oxidizing dissolved methane concentrations far in excess of observed levels. Assuming no diffusion limitation, our results suggest that Mox will likely offset increased MG in response to elevated temperature regimes as a function of ongoing climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]