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The Legal Amazon of Brazil holds vast mangrove forests, but a lack of awareness of their value has prevented their inclusion into results-based payments established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Based on an inventory from over 190 forest plots in Amazon mangroves, we estimate total ecosystem carbon stocks of 468 ± 67 Megagrams (Mg) ha−1; which are significantly higher than Brazilian upland biomes currently included into national carbon offset financing. Conversion of mangroves results in potential emissions of 1228 Mg CO2e ha−1, which are 3-fold higher than land use emissions from conversion of the Amazon rainforest. Our work provides the foundation for the inclusion of mangroves in Brazil's intended Nationally Determined Contribution, and here we show that halting mangrove deforestation in the Legal Amazon would generate avoided emissions of 0.9 ± 0.3 Teragrams (Tg) CO2e yr−1; which is equivalent to the annual carbon accumulation in 82,400 ha of secondary forests. A new study shows that deforestation of Amazon mangroves releases up to four times more carbon dioxide when compared to emissions arising from terrestrial biomes. This study set a foundation for the use of mangroves in Brazil's international policy agreements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A better understanding of the relative roles of internal climate variability and external contributions, from both natural (solar, volcanic) and anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, is important to better project future hydrologic changes. Changes in the evaporative demand play a central role in this context, particularly in tropical areas characterized by high precipitation seasonality, such as the tropical savannah and semi-desertic biomes. Here we present a set of geochemical proxies in speleothems from a well-ventilated cave located in central-eastern Brazil which shows that the evaporative demand is no longer being met by precipitation, leading to a hydrological deficit. A marked change in the hydrologic balance in central-eastern Brazil, caused by a severe warming trend, can be identified, starting in the 1970s. Our findings show that the current aridity has no analog over the last 720 years. A detection and attribution study indicates that this trend is mostly driven by anthropogenic forcing and cannot be explained by natural factors alone. These results reinforce the premise of a severe long-term drought in the subtropics of eastern South America that will likely be further exacerbated in the future given its apparent connection to increased greenhouse gas emissions. Speleothems from the Savanna region in Brazil documents the occurrence of an unprecedented long-term drought driven by anthropogenic forcing. Staring in the 1970´s the current drought is the most severe that has struck the region in the past 700 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical secondary forests sequester carbon up to 20 times faster than old-growth forests. This rate does not capture spatial regrowth patterns due to environmental and disturbance drivers. Here we quantify the influence of such drivers on the rate and spatial patterns of regrowth in the Brazilian Amazon using satellite data. Carbon sequestration rates of young secondary forests (<20 years) in the west are ~60% higher (3.0 ± 1.0 Mg C ha -1  yr -1 ) compared to those in the east (1.3 ± 0.3 Mg C ha -1  yr -1 ). Disturbances reduce regrowth rates by 8-55%. The 2017 secondary forest carbon stock, of 294 Tg C, could be 8% higher by avoiding fires and repeated deforestation. Maintaining the 2017 secondary forest area has the potential to accumulate ~19.0 Tg C yr -1 until 2030, contributing ~5.5% to Brazil's 2030 net emissions reduction target. Implementing legal mechanisms to protect and expand secondary forests whilst supporting old-growth conservation is, therefore, key to realising their potential as a nature-based climate solution.

To assess mortality risks and burdens associated with short-term exposure to wildfire-related fine particulate matter with diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), we collect daily mortality data from 2000 to 2016 for 510 immediate regions in Brazil, the most wildfire-prone area. We integrate data from multiple sources with a chemical transport model at the global scale to isolate daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2.5 at a 0.25 × 0.25 resolution. With a two-stage time-series approach, we estimate (i) an increase of 3.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.4, 3.9%) in all-cause mortality, 2.6% (95%CI: 1.5, 3.8%) in cardiovascular mortality, and 7.7% (95%CI: 5.9, 9.5) in respiratory mortality over 0–14 days with each 10 μg/m3 increase in daily wildfire-related PM2.5; (ii) 0.65% of all-cause, 0.56% of cardiovascular, and 1.60% of respiratory mortality attributable to acute exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5, corresponding to 121,351 all-cause deaths, 29,510 cardiovascular deaths, and 31,287 respiratory deaths during the study period. In this study, we find stronger associations in females and adults aged ≥ 60 years, and geographic difference in the mortality risks and burdens. To assess mortality risks and burdens associated with short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5, the authors collect daily mortality data from 2000 to 2016 for 510 immediate regions in Brazil, the most wildfire-prone area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many tropical forestlands are experiencing changes in land-tenure regimes, but how these changes may affect deforestation rates remains ambiguous. Here, we use Brazil's land-tenure and deforestation data and quasi-experimental methods to analyze how six land-tenure regimes (undesignated/untitled, private, strictly-protected and sustainable-use protected areas, indigenous, and quilombola lands) affect deforestation across 49 spatiotemporal scales. We find that undesignated/untitled public regimes with poorly defined tenure rights increase deforestation relative to any alternative regime in most contexts. The privatization of these undesignated/untitled lands often reduces this deforestation, particularly when private regimes are subject to strict environmental regulations such as the Forest Code in Amazonia. However, private regimes decrease deforestation less effectively and less reliably than alternative well-defined regimes, and directly privatizing either conservation regimes or indigenous lands would most likely increase deforestation. This study informs the ongoing political debate around land privatization/protection in tropical landscapes and can be used to envisage policy aligned with sustainable development goals. How land-tenure regimes affect deforestation remains ambiguous. This study shows how deforestation in Brazil is land-tenure dependent, and how strategies to effectively reduce deforestation can range from strengthening poorly defined rights to strengthening conservation-focused regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Zero-deforestation supply chain policies that leverage the market power of commodity buyers to change agricultural producer behavior can reduce forest clearing in regions with rapid commodity expansion and weak forest governance. Yet leakage—when deforestation is pushed to other regions—may dilute the global effectiveness of regionally successful policies. Here we show that domestic leakage offsets 43-50% of the avoided deforestation induced by existing and proposed zero-deforestation supply chain policies in Brazil's soy sector. However, cross-border leakage is insignificant (<3%) because soybean production is displaced to existing U.S. farmland. Eliminating deforestation from the supply chains of all firms exporting Brazilian soy to the EU or China from 2011-2016 could have reduced net global deforestation by 2% and Brazilian deforestation by 9%. Thus, if major tropical commodity importers (e.g., the EU) require traders to eliminate deforestation from their supply chains, it could help bend the curve on global forest loss. This research quantifies the role of zero deforestation policies and potential leakages in Brazilian soybean production, the third major driver of deforestation globally. Here the authors provide the first estimates of net global avoided soy-driven deforestation from zero-deforestation import restrictions and find that such restrictions could help avoid ~40% of deforestation for soy cultivation in Brazil and ~2% of global deforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Speleothems can provide high-quality continuous records of the direction and relative paleointensity of the geomagnetic field, combining high precision dating (with U-Th method) and rapid lock-in of their detrital magnetic particles during calcite precipitation. Paleomagnetic results for a mid-to-late Holocene stalagmite from Dona Benedita Cave in central Brazil encompass ~1900 years (3410 BP to 5310 BP, constrained by 12 U-Th ages) of paleomagnetic record from 58 samples (resolution of ~33 years). This dataset reveals angular variations of less than 0.06° yr−1 and a relatively steady paleointensity record (after calibration with geomagnetic field model) contrasting with the fast variations observed in younger speleothems from the same region under influence of the South Atlantic Anomaly. These results point to a quiescent period of the geomagnetic field during the mid-to-late Holocene in the area now comprised by the South Atlantic Anomaly, suggesting an intermittent or an absent behavior at the multi-millennial timescale. The South Atlantic Anomaly has the lowest intensity of the geomagnetic field. A stalagmite, from Brazil shows through its magnetic remanence that in mid-to-late Holocene this anomaly, was not being expressed or recurrent at surface in millennial scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 manifests as a milder disease in children than adults, but the underlying mechanisms are not fully characterized. Here we assess the difference in cellular or humoral immune responses of pediatric and adult COVID-19 patients to see if these factors contribute to the severity dichotomy. Children's non-specific immune profile is dominated by naive lymphocytes and HLA-DRhighCX3CR1low dendritic cells; meanwhile, children show strong specific antibody and T cell responses for viral structural proteins, with their T cell responses differing from adults by having weaker CD8+TNF+ T cells responses to S peptide pool but stronger responses to N and M peptide pools. Finally, viral mRNA is more abundant in pediatric patients. Our data thus support a scenario in which SARS-CoV-2 infected children contribute to transmission yet are less susceptible to COVID-19 symptoms due to strong and differential responses to the virus. Children often show milder COVID-19 symptoms, but the underlying mechanistic insights are still lacking. Here the authors profile both pediatric and adult cohorts of COVID-19 patients in Brazil to find that children exhibit higher viral load but stronger and biased cellular immunity, thereby serving clues for the differential responses in children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing temperatures will make space cooling a necessity for maintain comfort and protecting human health, and rising income levels will allow more people to purchase and run air conditioners. Here we show that, in Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Mexico income and humidity-adjusted temperature are common determinants for adopting air-conditioning, but their relative contribution varies in relation to household characteristics. Adoption rates are higher among households living in higher quality dwellings in urban areas, and among those with higher levels of education. Air-conditioning is unevenly distributed across income levels, making evident the existence of a disparity in access to cooling devices. Although the adoption of air-conditioning could increase between twofold and sixteen-fold by 2040, from 64 to 100 million families with access to electricity will not be able to adequately satisfy their demand for thermal comfort. The need to sustain electricity expenditure in response to higher temperatures can also create unequal opportunities to adapt. Adaptation to heat stress through the use of air conditioners has received increasing attention. Here the authors show that income and humidity adjusted temperature are common determinants for adopting air conditioning, but their relative contribution varies in relation to household characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The origin of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern remains unclear. Here, we test whether intra-host virus evolution during persistent infections could be a contributing factor by characterizing the long-term SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in an immunosuppressed kidney transplant recipient. Applying RT-qPCR and next-generation sequencing (NGS) of sequential respiratory specimens, we identify several mutations in the viral genome late in infection. We demonstrate that a late viral isolate exhibiting genome mutations similar to those found in variants of concern first identified in UK, South Africa, and Brazil, can escape neutralization by COVID-19 antisera. Moreover, infection of susceptible mice with this patient's escape variant elicits protective immunity against re-infection with either the parental virus and the escape variant, as well as high neutralization titers against the alpha and beta SARS-CoV-2 variants, B.1.1.7 and B.1.351, demonstrating a considerable immune control against such variants of concern. Upon lowering immunosuppressive treatment, the patient generated spike-specific neutralizing antibodies and resolved the infection. Our results suggest that immunocompromised patients could be a source for the emergence of potentially harmful SARS-CoV-2 variants. Here, in a longitudinal case study, Weigang et al. demonstrate that evolution of SARS-CoV-2 within a persistently infected immunosuppressed patient can result in the emergence of novel variants with reduced sensitivity to antibody neutralization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A two-dose regimen of the Oxford-AstraZeneca (ChAdOx1) Covid-19 vaccine with an inter-dose interval of three months has been implemented in many countries with restricted vaccine supply. However, there is limited evidence for the effectiveness of ChAdOx1 by dose in elderly populations in countries with high prevalence of the Gamma variant of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we estimate ChAdOx1 effectiveness by dose against the primary endpoint of RT-PCR-confirmed Covid-19, and secondary endpoints of Covid-19 hospitalization and Covid-19-related death, in adults aged ≥60 years during an epidemic with high Gamma variant prevalence in São Paulo state, Brazil using a matched, test-negative case-control study. Starting 28 days after the first dose, effectiveness of a single dose of ChAdOx1 is 33.4% (95% CI, 26.4–39.7) against Covid-19, 55.1% (95% CI, 46.6–62.2) against hospitalization, and 61.8% (95% CI, 48.9–71.4) against death. Starting 14 days after the second dose, effectiveness of the two-dose schedule is 77.9% (95% CI, 69.2–84.2) against Covid-19, 87.6% (95% CI, 78.2–92.9) against hospitalization, and 93.6% (95% CI, 81.9–97.7) against death. Completion of the ChAdOx1 vaccine schedule affords significantly increased protection over a single dose against mild and severe Covid-19 outcomes in elderly individuals during widespread Gamma variant circulation. Here, the authors investigate the effectiveness of the Oxford-AstraZeneca (ChAdOx1) vaccine during extensive Gamma variant SARS-CoV-2 circulation in São Paulo state, Brazil, and find that a two-dose regime is more effective than one dose against mild to severe Covid-19 outcomes in older adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid development of COVID-19 vaccines has helped mitigating SARS-CoV-2 spread, but more equitable allocation of vaccines is necessary to limit the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the emergence of additional variants of concern. We have developed a COVID-19 vaccine candidate based on Newcastle disease virus (NDV) that can be manufactured at high yields in embryonated eggs. Here, we show that the NDV vector expressing an optimized spike antigen (NDV-HXP-S) is a versatile vaccine inducing protective antibody responses. NDV-HXP-S can be administered intramuscularly as inactivated vaccine or intranasally as live vaccine. We show that NDV-HXP-S GMP-produced in Vietnam, Thailand and Brazil is effective in the hamster model. Furthermore, we show that intramuscular vaccination with NDV-HXP-S reduces replication of tested variants of concerns in mice. The immunity conferred by NDV-HXP-S effectively counteracts SARS-CoV-2 infection in mice and hamsters. Here the authors show that a Newcastle disease virus based COVID-19 vaccine expressing a stabilized spike protein induces protective immunity in small animal models and reduces replication of variants of concerns. This vaccine candidate can be produced by influenza virus vaccine manufactures around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several COVID-19 vaccines have shown good efficacy in clinical trials, but there remains uncertainty about the efficacy of vaccines against different variants. Here, we investigate the efficacy of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) against symptomatic COVID-19 in a post-hoc exploratory analysis of a Phase 3 randomised trial in Brazil (trial registration ISRCTN89951424). Nose and throat swabs were tested by PCR in symptomatic participants. Sequencing and genotyping of swabs were performed to determine the lineages of SARS-CoV-2 circulating during the study. Protection against any symptomatic COVID-19 caused by the Zeta (P.2) variant was assessed in 153 cases with vaccine efficacy (VE) of 69% (95% CI 55, 78). 49 cases of B.1.1.28 occurred and VE was 73% (46, 86). The Gamma (P.1) variant arose later in the trial and fewer cases (N = 18) were available for analysis. VE was 64% (−2, 87). ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 provided 95% protection (95% CI 61%, 99%) against hospitalisation due to COVID-19. In summary, we report that ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 protects against emerging variants in Brazil despite the presence of the spike protein mutation E484K. Emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 raise concerns about vaccine efficiency. Here, the authors present a post-hoc analysis for the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine trial in Brazil and provide efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 caused by the Zeta (P.2) and other variants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas in 2016, both Zika and dengue incidence declined to record lows in many countries in 2017–2018, but in 2019 dengue resurged in Brazil, causing ~2.1 million cases. In this study we use epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to investigate dengue dynamics in recent years in Brazil. First, we estimate dengue virus force of infection (FOI) and model mosquito-borne transmission suitability since the early 2000s. Our estimates reveal that DENV transmission was low in 2017–2018, despite conditions being suitable for viral spread. Our study also shows a marked decline in dengue susceptibility between 2002 and 2019, which could explain the synchronous decline of dengue in the country, partially as a result of protective immunity from prior ZIKV and/or DENV infections. Furthermore, we performed phylogeographic analyses using 69 newly sequenced genomes of dengue virus serotype 1 and 2 from Brazil, and found that the outbreaks in 2018–2019 were caused by local DENV lineages that persisted for 5–10 years, circulating cryptically before and after the Zika epidemic. We hypothesize that DENV lineages may circulate at low transmission levels for many years, until local conditions are suitable for higher transmission, when they cause major outbreaks. Zika and dengue incidence in the Americas declined in 2017–2018, but dengue resurged in 2019 in Brazil. This study uses epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to show that the decline of dengue may be explained by protective immunity from pre-exposure to ZIKV and/or DENV in prior years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been suggested that rainfall in the Amazon decreases if forest loss exceeds some threshold, but the specific value of this threshold remains uncertain. Here, we investigate the relationship between historical deforestation and rainfall at different geographical scales across the Southern Brazilian Amazon (SBA). We also assess impacts of deforestation policy scenarios on the region's agriculture. Forest loss of up to 55–60% within 28 km grid cells enhances rainfall, but further deforestation reduces rainfall precipitously. This threshold is lower at larger scales (45–50% at 56 km and 25–30% at 112 km grid cells), while rainfall decreases linearly within 224 km grid cells. Widespread deforestation results in a hydrological and economic negative-sum game, because lower rainfall and agricultural productivity at larger scales outdo local gains. Under a weak governance scenario, SBA may lose 56% of its forests by 2050. Reducing deforestation prevents agricultural losses in SBA up to US$ 1 billion annually. Deforestation in the Amazon region has suggested to influence precipitation in a non-linear way. Here, the authors show that forest loss is associated with decreasing precipitation after a scale-dependent threshold is crossed, which can cause stress on agriculture if deforestation is expanded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil experienced a large dengue virus (DENV) epidemic in 2019, highlighting a continuous struggle with effective control and public health preparedness. Using Oxford Nanopore sequencing, we led field and classroom initiatives for the monitoring of DENV in Brazil, generating 227 novel genome sequences of DENV1-2 from 85 municipalities (2015–2019). This equated to an over 50% increase in the number of DENV genomes from Brazil available in public databases. Using both phylogenetic and epidemiological models we retrospectively reconstructed the recent transmission history of DENV1-2. Phylogenetic analysis revealed complex patterns of transmission, with both lineage co-circulation and replacement. We identified two lineages within the DENV2 BR-4 clade, for which we estimated the effective reproduction number and pattern of seasonality. Overall, the surveillance outputs and training initiative described here serve as a proof-of-concept for the utility of real-time portable sequencing for research and local capacity building in the genomic surveillance of emerging viruses. Here, the authors present results of the ZiBRA-2 project (https://www.zibra2project.org) which is an arbovirus surveillance project, across the Midwest of Brazil using a mobile genomics laboratory, combined with a genomic surveillance training program that targeted post-graduate students, laboratory technicians, and health practitioners in universities and laboratories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over 100 countries have set or are considering net-zero emissions or neutrality targets. However, most of the information on emissions neutrality (such as timing) is provided for the global level. Here, we look at national-level neutrality-years based on globally cost-effective 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios from integrated assessment models. These results indicate that domestic net zero greenhouse gas and CO2 emissions in Brazil and the USA are reached a decade earlier than the global average, and in India and Indonesia later than global average. These results depend on choices like the accounting of land-use emissions. The results also show that carbon storage and afforestation capacity, income, share of non-CO2 emissions, and transport sector emissions affect the variance in projected phase-out years across countries. We further compare these results to an alternative approach, using equity-based rules to establish target years. These results can inform policymakers on net-zero targets. Over 100 countries have set or are considering net-zero emissions targets. Here, the authors show that a country's potential for negative emissions and methodological issues affect when countries can reach net-zero, calling for clear internationally agreed definitions and accounting methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With COVID-19 surging across the world, understanding the effectiveness of intervention strategies on transmission dynamics is of primary global health importance. Here, we develop and analyze an epidemiological compartmental model using multi-objective genetic algorithm design optimization to compare scenarios related to strategy type, the extent of social distancing, time window, and personal protection levels on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil. The results indicate that the optimal strategy for São Paulo is to reduce social distancing over time with a stepping-down reduction in the magnitude of social distancing every 80-days. Our results also indicate that the ability to reduce social distancing depends on a 5–10% increase in the current percentage of people strictly following protective guidelines, highlighting the importance of protective behavior in controlling the pandemic. Our framework can be extended to model transmission dynamics for other countries, regions, states, cities, and organizations. Incidence of COVID-19 has been high in parts of South America including Brazil, and information on effective intervention strategies is needed. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling to show that reductions in social distancing should be made gradually to avoid a severe second peak of cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 is affecting healthcare resources worldwide, with lower and middle-income countries being particularly disadvantaged to mitigate the challenges imposed by the disease, including the availability of a sufficient number of infirmary/ICU hospital beds, ventilators, and medical supplies. Here, we use mathematical modelling to study the dynamics of COVID-19 in Bahia, a state in northeastern Brazil, considering the influences of asymptomatic/non-detected cases, hospitalizations, and mortality. The impacts of policies on the transmission rate were also examined. Our results underscore the difficulties in maintaining a fully operational health infrastructure amidst the pandemic. Lowering the transmission rate is paramount to this objective, but current local efforts, leading to a 36% decrease, remain insufficient to prevent systemic collapse at peak demand, which could be accomplished using periodic interventions. Non-detected cases contribute to a ∽55% increase in R0. Finally, we discuss our results in light of epidemiological data that became available after the initial analyses. Low-resource settings can face additional challenges in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling to investigate transmission in the state of Bahia, Brazil, and quantify control measures needed to prevent the hospital system becoming overwhelmed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report Zika virus (ZIKV) vertical transmission in 130 infants born to PCR+ mothers at the time of the Rio de Janeiro epidemic of 2015–2016. Serum and urine collected from birth through the first year of life were tested by quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and/or IgM Zika MAC-ELISA. Four hundred and seven specimens are evaluated; 161 sera tested by PCR and IgM assays, 85 urines by PCR. Sixty-five percent of children (N = 84) are positive in at least one assay. Of 94 children tested within 3 months of age, 70% are positive. Positivity declines to 33% after 3 months. Five children are PCR+ beyond 200 days of life. Concordance between IgM and PCR results is 52%, sensitivity 65%, specificity 40% (positive PCR results as gold standard). IgM and serum PCR are 61% concordant; serum and urine PCR 55%. Most children (65%) are clinically normal. Equal numbers of children with abnormal findings (29 of 45, 64%) and normal findings (55 of 85, 65%) have positive results, p = 0.98. Earlier maternal trimester of infection is associated with positive results (p = 0.04) but not clinical disease (p = 0.98). ZIKV vertical transmission is frequent but laboratory confirmed infection is not necessarily associated with infant abnormalities. Here, Brasil et al. investigate mother to child Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission rates in a large longitudinal cohort of pregnant ZIKV-positive women with their infants followed from the time of maternal infection through birth and onwards, finding high in utero transmission rates that do not predict clinical outcomes, suggesting follow-up of children with antenatal ZIKV exposure is necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many nations use ecological compensation policies to address negative impacts of development projects and achieve No Net Loss (NNL) of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, failures are widely reported. We use spatial simulation models to quantify potential net impacts of alternative compensation policies on biodiversity (indicated by native vegetation) and two ecosystem services (carbon storage, sediment retention) across four case studies (in Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mozambique). No policy achieves NNL of biodiversity in any case study. Two factors limit their potential success: the land available for compensation (existing vegetation to protect or cleared land to restore), and expected counterfactual biodiversity losses (unregulated vegetation clearing). Compensation also fails to slow regional biodiversity declines because policies regulate only a subset of sectors, and expanding policy scope requires more land than is available for compensation activities. Avoidance of impacts remains essential in achieving NNL goals, particularly once opportunities for compensation are exhausted. Countries are adopting ecological compensation policies aimed at achieving no net loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, Sonter and colleagues apply spatial simulation models to case studies in Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, and Mozambique to show that compensation alone is not sufficient to preserve biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mining poses significant and potentially underestimated risks to tropical forests worldwide. In Brazil's Amazon, mining drives deforestation far beyond operational lease boundaries, yet the full extent of these impacts is unknown and thus neglected in environmental licensing. Here we quantify mining-induced deforestation and investigate the aspects of mining operations, which most likely contribute. We find mining significantly increased Amazon forest loss up to 70 km beyond mining lease boundaries, causing 11,670 km² of deforestation between 2005 and 2015. This extent represents 9% of all Amazon forest loss during this time and 12 times more deforestation than occurred within mining leases alone. Pathways leading to such impacts include mining infrastructure establishment, urban expansion to support a growing workforce, and development of mineral commodity supply chains. Mining-induced deforestation is not unique to Brazil; to mitigate adverse impacts of mining and conserve tropical forests globally, environmental assessments and licensing must considered both on- and off-lease sources of deforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]