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According to the October issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, warm and dry summer weather followed by a period of abundant, but sometimes excessive rainfall since the end of September, hampered field work in large parts of Europe. These wet conditions at the end of September and October caused delays to the harvesting of summer crops as well as to sowing activities in western and southwestern France, the Benelux, southern Poland, eastern Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece. For winter rapeseed, the sowing window has come to an end. For winter cereals, timely completion of the sowing campaign is still possible in the coming weeks. At EU level, the yield forecasts for all summer crops were revised downwards, mostly based on a reanalysis of data since the start of the season, JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to the November issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe – favourable weather conditions since mid-October allowed the sowing of winter cereals to catch up in most of Europe. However, sowing activities remain behind in eastern Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. Favourable conditions arrived too late for rapeseed sowing in several of the main producing countries, and – at EU level - the area sown is expected to be below last year’s level and the 5-year average., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to the December issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe – in most agricultural regions of eastern and northern Europe, autumn 2020 was the warmest on the MARS records. November was the second warmest November in most of Europe. As a consequence of the prevailing mild conditions, the build-up of frost tolerance in winter wheat started much later than usual, and remains weak in most of western, southern, central and south-eastern Europe. Areas where winter crops are underdeveloped as a consequence of delayed sowing - as is the case in large parts of eastern Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania - are particularly vulnerable. Localised and minor frost-kill events are expected to have occurred already in northern Romania, due to a cold air intrusion at the end of November and the beginning of December. More widespread minor to moderate frost-kill events are likely to have occurred in the Volga okrug of European Russia., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Yield forecasts for EU summer crops revised further downwards According to the crop monitoring Bulletin for Europe, at EU level, the yield forecasts for all summer crops were revised downwards, most markedly for Romania, Bulgaria and Greece. Overall, the EU-level yield forecast for summer crops is now close to the 5-year average. Severe drought conditions continued in eastern Romania, eastern Bulgaria, and southern Ukraine, with further negative impacts mainly on maize and sunflowers. Drought is now also observed in north-eastern Greece, the country’s main sunflower production region, and a prolonged precipitation deficit has started to impact maize in central Ukraine. In western Europe, the heatwaves reported in August were followed by a drop in temperatures, but a precipitation deficit continued in large parts of France, Belgium, Luxembourg, western Germany and the southern Netherlands, further diminishing the yield expectations for summer crops in these regions (mainly maize, sugar beet and potatoes). In Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom, frequent and abundant precipitation since mid-August negatively affected the ripening and harvesting of spring and winter cereals. Favourable conditions prevailed in central and northern Europe. A surplus of precipitation benefited summer crops in northern Italy, Austria, Slovakia, Czechia, Poland and Belarus., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to the March 2020 issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin the 2019/2020 winter was one of the warmest in its records (since 1979). In most regions, mean daily temperature exceeded the long-term-average by 2 °C to 4 °C. Even higher temperature anomalies prevailed in eastern and northern Europe. As a consequence of the mild winter, winter crops in central, eastern and northern Europe are generally in good condition. Warmer-than-usual weather is promoting early spring re-growth,with potential yield benefits. Downsides attached to the mild winter are that increased pest and disease pressure can be expected later in spring, and that early developed crops — and especially fruit trees — might be more vulnerable to spring frost events. Significant lack of precipitation has been observed in the main durum wheat producing regions (southern Italy, large parts of Spain, Greece), as well as in large parts of southern and eastern Romania, northern Bulgaria and in the Maghreb region. However, in most of these regions, sufficient rain is forecast to avoid imminent impact on crop yield potentials. Excessive wetness in north-western Europe In contrast, important grain producing regions in north-western Europe (France, Benelux countries, Germany, United Kingdom) faced excessively wet conditions, especially in February and the beginning of March. In these regions, winter crops often did not yet establish well and necessary field operations were hampered. Spring crops sowings are also delayed in these regions and the more settled weather forecast for the second half of March may not be sufficient to allow field operations to fully catch up. In this issue, a first estimate is also given of crop yield forecasts at national level, which at this early stage of the season are mostly based on an analysis of historical trends., JRC.D.5-Food Security

The July issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe – reports that the recent near-average weather conditions, with well-distributed rainfall and relatively few hot spells, have been favourable to crops in many parts of Europe. However, extreme weather events in much of central Europe, south-western Finland and southern Russia had significant negative impacts, mostly on winter crops. The predominantly favourable weather conditions contributed to an improved yield outlook in several regions. Compared to the yield forecasts presented in the June issue of the Bulletin, the strongest upward revision at EU level was for spring barley (+6.4%), reflecting improved or continued favourable conditions in almost all major producing countries. However, the forecast for winter wheat was slightly revised further downwards. This was mainly due to the sharp downward revisions of the yield forecast in Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary associated with a very unfavourable season worsened by heavy rain around ripening which outweighed the slight upward revisions in most other countries. For most other winter crops and summer crops, the balance was slightly positive. The yield forecasts for grain maize and sunflowers remain well above the 5-year average, reflecting a sustained positive outlook in all of the main producing countries., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to the October issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, farmers in many parts of Europe had trouble harvesting summer crops and sowing the winter crops for next year’s season, either because it was too dry or because it was too wet. Rapeseed sowing activities were particularly affected. Frequent and abundant rainfall hampered the harvesting of summer crops in the British Isles, part of the Benelux countries, northern Germany, Denmark and southern Sweden. In these regions, sugar beet, potatoes and green maize crops are the most affected. The winter sowing campaign also faced delays in these regions. Dry conditions hampered the sowing of winter crops in northern France, Germany, north-eastern Slovenia, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Spain as well as in western Ukraine. In most of these regions, rain arrived too late to complete the sowing of rapeseed within the optimal window, which is likely to result in a reduced rapeseed area. The sowing window for winter cereals is still open, but more rain will be needed in most of these regions to sustain adequate stand formation. Once again, the yield forecasts for summer crops were revised slightly downward., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to this May issue of the crop monitoring Bulletin for Europe, the yield forecasts for almost all crops were revised downwards at the EU level, and most markedly for rapeseed, winter barley and winter wheat. In the case of spring barley, an upward revision of the yield forecast in Spain counterbalanced the downward revision in other countries. As the summer crop season has just started, most of the country-level yield forecasts for summer crops are still based on historical trends or average values. In much of western, central and eastern Europe, weather conditions were similar to those reported in the April Bulletin: predominantly above-average temperatures, high radiation levels, and insufficient precipitation to replenish soil moisture levels for the growth of winter and early-sown spring crops. Little or no rain is forecast for the coming days in most of these regions, where winter cereals are approaching the sensitive flowering stage. In the case of rapeseed, the conditions of water stress already experienced partially coincided with the flowering and/or early grain filling stage. In eastern Romania and western Ukraine, crops are stunted and present signs of wilting and early leaf senescence. Rainfall since the end of April facilitated the sowing and emergence of late-planted spring crops and summer crops in these regions, alleviating the difficulties caused by very dry top soils (as mentioned in the April issue of the Bulletin). However, many emerging crops present uneven or patchy stands due to the previous dry conditions, and will require more rainfall to adequately sustain growth. In contrast, a favourable rainfall surplus was observed in western and eastern Mediterranean countries. Favourable weather conditions also prevailed in northern Europe and the Atlantic region. Rainfall in the Maghreb region occurred too late in the season to be beneficial for winter crops., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to this June issue of the crop monitoring Bulletin for Europe, the yield forecasts for EU winter crops, (mainly wheat, barley and rapeseed) were revised downwards by around 2% compared to May, mainly because of sharp downward revisions for France, Romania and the Benelux countries. The yield outlook for winter crops is now clearly below the 5-year average. A main reason for the poor outlook for winter cereals is a distinct rain deficit that persisted in much of north-western Europe as well as in Hungary and eastern Romania. Recent rains in several of the regions affected arrived too late to improve this negative outlook. Improved outlook for grain maize and sunflowers In contrast, the yield forecasts for EU summer crops such as grain maize and sunflowers were revised upwards, mainly because of the timely arrival of rains in May and June which helped improve the outlook - or to sustain an already positive outlook - for these crops in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece and Spain. The forecasts for grain maize and sunflowers are currently well above the 5-year average. The yield outlook for spring barley slightly improved at the EU level, due to an upward revision for Spain which outweighed the downward revisions for France, Poland, Germany and several other countries., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to the April 2020 issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, western Europe experienced one of the driest starts to spring since 1979, after an exceptionally wet winter. Large parts of Poland, Ukraine and Romania have also faced dry conditions since the end of winter. Winter crops in most of these regions are still in good condition, but more rain is needed to sustain a positive yield outlook. However, the very dry upper soil layers are having a negative impact on the sowing and emergence of spring and summer crops. Cold spells at the end of March and beginning of April challenged sowing and emergence in much of central and south-eastern Europe. A marked rainfall surplus was welcomed in the Iberian Peninsula, Greece, Cyprus and south-eastern Turkey. While labour availability remains a key concern, we have found no evidence that COVID-19 has had any major impact on the sowing of spring and summer crops. So far, the supply of seed, fertiliser and pesticides seems to be adequate and no immediate disruptions are expected. The yield forecast presented in this issue of the MARS bulletin are still mostly based on historical trends. It is acknowledged that they bear a large margin of uncertainty associated with the rain deficit currently faced in large parts of Europe. Increasingly accurate forecasts can be expected as the season unfolds., JRC.D.5-Food Security

The yield forecasts for almost all summer crops in the EU were revised downwards from the July forecast, but remain above or near the 5-year average. Compared to the figures reported in July, the main downward revisions occurred for summer crops in France, Romania, Bulgaria, Germany, the Benelux countries and Poland. By contrast, the yield forecast for soybeans was revised upwards, as very favourable conditions prevailed in northern Italy and Hungary. Large parts of western and northern central Europe have been affected by a rain deficit since the beginning of July. Temperatures increased in these regions at the end of July, and a heatwave of seven to ten consecutive days occurred in the first half of August. The combination of limited water supply and high temperatures negatively affected summer crops, with expected reductions in yields. In southern Ukraine and eastern parts of Romania and Bulgaria, the return of drought conditions negatively impacted summer crops, leading to the early senescence of maize and sunflower crops. In contrast, summer crops benefited from a surplus of precipitation in many other parts of central Europe, eastern Italy, and western Romania., JRC.D.5-Food Security

The yield forecast for grain maize has fallen by almost 2%, but this is still above the 5-year average for the EU as a whole. Forecasts are distinctly below the 5-year average for most western and northern-central European countries; well above-average yields are expected for southern-central and south-eastern Europe, particularly for Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania. Yield forecasts for sugar beet, potatoes and green maize, which were already below the 5-year average at EU level, have been revised further downwards. The productivity of pastures in northern, central and western Europe has also been negatively impacted. The yield outlook for sunflowers remains firmly above the 5-year average. Forecasts for winter crops and spring cereals essentially remained the same. The season has closed in most regions, and crops have been harvested under adequate weather conditions., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to the Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, hot and regionally dry conditions negatively impacted the final part of the - hitherto very positive - summer crops growing season in south-eastern Europe. This, combined with continued challenging conditions in large parts of central and western Europe, has resulted in an overall mediocre yield outlook for summer crops at EU level. The yield forecasts for grain maize and sunflowers have both fallen by approximately 4%. The grain maize yield forecast is now practically at the 5-year average. Sunflowers are the only summer crop addressed in the Bulletin that still has a positive yield outlook at EU level, above the 5-year average. This issue of the Bulletin features a special section on rice, for which the EU outlook is average., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Winter crops are advanced and in good shape in most of Europe, following a mild winter. Cold spells have been rare and have not caused significant damage. Large parts of southern Europe experienced a precipitation deficit; more rain will be needed there to sustain good crop growth., JRC.D.5-Food Security

The November issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, published today, presents wetter-than-usual conditions in large parts of northern and western Europe for October and early November, while in the south east dry and warm weather persisted. Frequent and abundant rainfall continued to delay field operations in France, Italy, Benelux countries, the British Isles, northern Germany, and southern Sweden over the period of review (1 October to 20 November 2019). Rainfall was particularly intense in southern France and northern and central Italy. While the sowing campaign of winter cereals has been practically completed in central Europe, some obstacles to sowing, emergence, and crop establishment in the field remain in the overly wet regions of western and northern Europe, as well as in Italy. In Spain, Portugal and Greece, sowing has progressed fairly well. By contrast, the central Balkan region, large parts of Turkey and Ukraine, the southern part of the Iberian Peninsula, and western Morocco experienced a lack of rainfall, with less than half the long-term average recorded. Eastern and south-eastern Europe were also affected by extraordinarily warm weather. These conditions hampered sowing and continue to affect crop establishment in southern Romania and northern Bulgaria., JRC.D.5-Food Security

International audience; This study assesses crop residues in the EU from major crops using empirical models to predict crop residues from yield statistics; furthermore it analyses the inter‐annual variability of those estimates over the period 1998‐2015, identifying its main drivers across Europe. The models were constructed based on an exhaustive collection of experimental data from scientific papers for the crops: wheat, barley, rye, oats, triticale, rice, maize, sorghum, rapeseed, sunflower, soybean, potato and sugarbeet. We discuss the assumptions on the relationship between yield and the harvest index, adopted by previous studies, to interpret the experimental data, quantify the uncertainties of these models, and establish the premises to implement them at regional scale –i.e NUTS level 3– within the EU. To cope this, we created a consolidated sub‐national statistical data along with an algorithm able to aggregate (figures are provided at country level) and disaggregate (production at 25 km grid is provided as supplementary material) estimates. The total lignocellulosic biomass production in the EU28 over the review period, according to our models, is 419 Mt, from which wheat is the major contributor (155 Mt). Our results show that maize and rapeseed are the two crops with the highest residue yield, respectively 8.9 and 8.6 t ha‐1. The spatial analysis revealed that these three crops, which, according to our results, are feedstocks highly suitable a priori for second generation biofuels in the EU and are unevenly distributed across Europe. Weather fluctuation was identified as the major driver in residue production from cereals, while, in the case of starch crops and oilseeds – which are predominant in northern Europe – corresponded to the marked production trend likely influenced by the agricultural policies and agro‐management over the review period. Additionally, our study highlights the limitation of such empirical models in quantifying lignocellulosic biomass in the EU.

Above-average rainfall in Italy, south-eastern Europe and south-eastern parts of the Iberian Peninsula instigated the replenishment of soil moisture reserves, which in several regions had been critically low, with substantial benefits for winter crops and the early development of spring- and summer crops. Large parts of northern-central Europe experienced a marked rainfall deficit since mid-March. April was particularly dry in these regions. Winter crops are negatively affected in northern Poland, eastern and north-eastern Germany and north-western Czechia, especially those on light sandy soils. Emerging spring and summer crops were also impacted. On balance, the improvements to the yield outlook for winter cereals in southern Europe were largely offset by reduced yield forecasts in northern regions, resulting in a slight upward revision at the EU level. The distinctly colder-than-usual conditions that occurred in large parts of Europe in early May slowed down winter crop development, but frost damage to annual crops (such as flowering rapeseed stands) was limited to local occurrences., JRC.D.5-Food Security

As a consequence of predominantly mild weather conditions, frost damage to winter cereals has been minor so far. However, low-temperature acclimatisation (winter hardening) remains weak, or has weakened in large parts of Europe. The current low levels of hardening in Germany and Denmark, as well as in southern Romania and northern Bulgaria, are uncommon and raise some concern. Several parts of Europe recorded a rain deficit. This was most evident in large parts of the Iberian Peninsula and the western Maghreb region, where rainfall has been substantially below average since the beginning of December. So far, these dry conditions generally do not represent an immediate concern for crops., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Beneficial rainfall in northern and northern-central Europe contributed to an improved outlook in regions that experienced a dry spell in April. Abundant rainfall in Italy, and southern central and eastern Europe also provided benefits in terms of improved water supply. However, this wet weather combined with below average temperatures, hampering summer crop growth in large parts of these regions. In contrast, hot and dry conditions in the Iberian Peninsula, reduced yield expectations for the main winter crops and spring barley. Moreover, water reservoirs are at below-average fill levels, which could possibly lead to restrictions on water use for irrigation of summer crops later in the season. At EU level, the overall yield outlook for cereals slightly improved comparing to our previous forecast in May. Grain maize and sunflower yield expectations are distinctly above the five-year average, reflecting the favourable conditions in large parts of south-eastern Europe., JRC.D.5-Food Security

The overall yield outlook for cereals at EU level slightly decreased due to the impact of the June heatwave that affected large parts of Europe, resulting in a limited downward revision of forecasts for soft wheat, spring barley, rye, and triticale. Forecasts for grain maize and sunflowers were revised upwards due to the favourable conditions in southern-central and south-eastern Europe continuing. This positive outlook for summer crops in south-eastern Europe contrasts with the unfavourable conditions faced in large parts of Austria, Germany, Czechia, the Benelux countries, and France. Soil moisture levels in these regions are low and the rise in temperature and absence of rain forecast for the coming days will aggravate this situation., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Winter crops in western and southern Europe, have acquired little frost tolerance, due to mild winter temperatures so far. In central and eastern Europe, the frost tolerance of winter cereals has increased considerably since mid-December and is expected to further increase in the coming days. Since the start of winter, frost damage in the EU has been mostly limited to minor occurrences and no further frost-kill damage is expected in the coming days., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Este informe resume el trabajo realizado para hacer la transferencia de la plataforma BioMA a Cuba y sus primeras aplicaciones para evaluar los impactos del cambio climático y de opciones de adaptación del agro-manejo. Estos trabajos fueron conducidos en el contexto del proyecto BASAL Proyecto Bases Ambientales para la Sostenibilidad Alimentaria Local (BASAL), un proyecto de cooperación de Cuba con la Unión Europea, que pretende reducir las vulnerabilidades relacionadas con el cambio climático en el sector agrícola a nivel local y nacional., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Frost damage remains limited despite end-of-winter cold spell, JRC.D.5-Food Security

The study assesses how climate change could affect Europe in eleven impact areas. Under a high warming scenario, several climate impacts show a clear geographical north-south divide. Most of the welfare losses, assessed for six impact areas, would be greatly reduced under a 2ᵒC scenario., JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transport

Harvesting of root and tuber crops also affected In large parts of central Europe, persistently dry soil conditions, complicated field preparations and sowing operations, and limited plant emergence and early crop development. Rapeseed areas in Germany, eastern Poland and northern Czechia are expected to be significantly reduced. Soft wheat can still be (re)sown in some countries. Favourable conditions for the sowing and emergence of winter crops prevailed in most parts of western and northern Europe., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Rapeseed sowing and emergence seriously impacted, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Rapeseed outlook revised downwards, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Water stress, associated with exceptionally dry and warmer-than-usual conditions, affected the flowering and/or grain filling of winter crops and spring cereals in large regions of northern-central and northern Europe. Grain maize and sunflower crops benefited from abundant rain in southern Europe., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Sowing and development of winter cereals had been delayed due to dry conditions in large parts of Europe. Relatively mild conditions have slowed hardening of winter wheat in western Europe. In central, northern and eastern Europe, forecasts of colder conditions are expected to improve frost tolerance., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Grain maize still positive due to good performance in south-eastern Europe, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Winter conditions so far present no threat to winter crops, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Partial pasture recovery in northern Europe, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Exceptionally warm in the north and east; wet in the south, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Winter crops generally faring well, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Rainfall affects sowing in northern areas Continued drought in the Iberian Peninsula, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Wet conditions delay winter sowing Continued dry conditions in Mediterranean regions, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Grain maize yields revised downwards Heatwaves affect maize-producing regions in south-eastern Europe, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Outlook for summer crops now above average Harvesting of winter cops hampered in northern Europe, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Fairly positive outlook for winter cereals Sparse rainfall and a recent cold spell add to uncertainty, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Hot and dry start to summer Yield forecast for most crops revised slightly downwards, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Dry and cold weather affects yield outlook Rapeseed and spring barley now below 5-year average, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Promising start to the season Exceptionally mild temperature in late February and early March, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Slightly improved outlook for summer crops Rain mitigates impacts of heatwaves in south-eastern Europe, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Snow cover information is actually used in the modelling of frost kill damage of winter cereals at JRC-MARS. The intended improvements can exploit snow data information leading to more precise simulations in the crop models and soil moisture simulations resulting more precise crop yield forecasts. As a first step, the main characteristics and constrains of ground-based snow depth measurements and remote sensing based snow observation were discussed. Comparison of SnowMaus and ECMWF snow products was performed for 20 meteorological stations of Russia, Ukraine, Poland and Sweden. The results indicated good agreement in case of both model for start and termination of snow cover. SnowMaus model can be useful in the data quality control, but local calibration is needed for reliable snow depth values especially in case of deep snow cover. The ECMWF model provided the best estimates/results of snow depth by the help of snow water equivalent and simulated snow density parameters. Evaluation of shallow snow cover data (, JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

This final report of the AVEMAC study presents an assessment of the potential vulnerability of European agriculture to changing climatic conditions in the coming decades. The analysis is based on weather data generated from two contrasting realizations of the A1B emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the time horizons 2020 and 2030. These two realizations (obtained from two different general circulation models, downscaled using regional climate models and biascorrected) represent the warmest and coldest realizations of the A1B scenario over Europe as estimated by the ENSEMBLES project. The future weather data fed two types of analyses. The first analysis consisted in computing static agro-meteorological indicators as proxies of potential vulnerabilities of agricultural systems, expressed as changes in the classification of agricultural areas in Europe under climate constraints. The second analysis relied on biophysical modelling to characterize crop specific plant responses derived from crop growth simulations at different production levels (potential production, water-limited production, and production limited by diseases). Assessing the importance of vulnerability to climate change requires not only the localisation of relative yield changes, but also the analysis of the impact of the change on the acreage affected. Consequently, the simulation results of the impact assessment on crops were further processed to estimate the potential changes in production at sub-national (NUTS2) level. This was achieved by relating the simulation results to farm typologies in order to identify which types of systems are likely to be affected by reductions in production. The analyses of this study must be considered as a first step only, since they have neither included adaptation strategies that the farmer can take in response to changes in climate, nor a bio-economic evaluation of estimated vulnerabilities. Therefore, the main aspects and the requirements for a possible future integrated analysis at EU27 level to address climate change and agriculture with the target of providing policy support are also presented in this report. Eventually the results of this study shall help the formulation of appropriate policy options and the development of adequate policy instruments to support the adaptation to climate change of the EU agricultural sector., JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources