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Outliers in time-series data are crucial in model estimation and forecasting. Understanding the importance of false detection of outliers in various autoregressive processes, the present study aims to evaluate test statistics' performance by utilizing multiple models through robust estimation of errors. In this study, numerous data-generating techniques have been employed via simulation at different values of the estimates, location, and size of an outlier, sample sizes, and classical cutoff to access the power of the test statistics for false detection of outlier type. The findings of the simulation reveal that the location and size of outliers, parameter values, and, to some extent, the size of the series influence the behavior of test statistics in detecting the type of outliers. Overall, the estimation method of residual standard deviation influences the sampling behavior of the test statistics. Outliers also affect the forecasting performance in the model. All results are also validated empirically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is to investigate the bank specific determinants related to the performance of public and private sector banks in Pakistan. Using strongly balanced panel yearly data from 2010 to 2017, Pooled OLS, fixed effect, Random effect and Random Effect Mundlak Transformation (REMT) have been utilized to provide the empirical evidences in credit risk management in Pakistan. The identification of suitable explanatory variable that explains the banking profitability wisely is made possible by using the panel data techniques. In this study, impact of bank specific variables are: Return On Assets, Capital Ratio, Credit Risk, Credit deposit ratio, Liquidity Ratio, Interest expended to interest earned, bank size and ownership on the profitability of banks in Pakistan has been assessed using four different panel data techniques. Out of the four estimation strategies Random Effect with Mundlak (1978) transformation raises the overall variation of the baseline model to 63% that is explained by banking profitability. Ignoring the time-invariant characteristics in the model, credit deposit ratio and interest expanded to interest earned possess negative relationship with return on assets of banks. Size of the bank is positive and significant when with-in and between banks information is augmented in Radom effect method of estimation. However the size of banks may not affect the banking profitability by allowing correlation between unobservable heterogeneity using Random Effect with Mundlak (1978) transformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an investigation into the dependence structure among different disruptive technology sectors driving the Fourth Industrial Revolution and scrutinizes the impact of ESG integration on shaping investments in different tech stock sectors in the presence of ESG consideration, represented by the ESG stock index, versus without specific ESG consideration, represented by the general stock index. The results show that (i) C-vine outperforms R-vine and D-vine when modeling the dependence structure of tech sectors. Intelligent infrastructure is the most crucial sector, with substantial reliance on smart transportation and advanced manufacturing. (ii) ESG integration reduces dependence, especially tail dependence, between tech sectors and the stock market, which benefits the future security sector the most and future communication the least. (iii) ESG integration mitigates risk spillover between tech sectors and the stock market, particularly benefiting final frontiers and intelligent infrastructure. The decrease in downside spillover is more significant compared to upside scenarios. For downside risk, spillover from tech sectors to stock indices is more reduced than the reverse, while the opposite holds for upside risk. These sectoral findings offer insights for market participants in financial market investments, financial regulators in risk management, and listed companies in ESG disclosure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the complex relation among environmental taxes, productive capacities, urbanization, and their collective effects on environmental quality in Africa, drawing on two decades of data from twenty African countries. It situates the study within the broader discourse on sustainable development and economic growth, emphasizing the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework to examine the relationship between economic development, characterized by urban expansion and increased productive capacities, and the adoption of environmental taxes amidst the continent's diverse economic and environmental environments. Using advanced econometric techniques, including the Cross-Section Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) model and the Dynamic Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (DCCEMG) estimator, the study addresses data challenges such as cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity. The results provide important insights into the dynamics of environmental quality in relation to economic and urban growth and the role of environmental taxation. The study proposes tailored policy strategies aimed at strengthening sustainable development initiatives in line with international agreements such as the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. These strategies advocate for a nuanced application of environmental taxes and the promotion of productive capacities to enhance environmental sustainability across the African continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Predictive analytics of financial markets in developed and emerging economies during the COVID-19 regime is undeniably challenging due to unavoidable uncertainty and the profound proliferation of negative news on different platforms. Tracking the media echo is crucial to explaining and anticipating the abrupt fluctuations in financial markets. The present research attempts to propound a robust framework capable of channeling macroeconomic reflectors and essential media chatter-linked variables to draw precise forecasts of future figures for Spanish and Indian stock markets. The predictive structure combines Isometric Mapping (ISOMAP), which is a non-linear feature transformation tool, and Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR), which is an ensemble machine learning technique to perform predictive modelling. The Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is used to interpret the black-box type predictive model to infer meaningful insights. The overall results duly justify the incorporation of local and global media chatter indices in explaining the dynamics of respective financial markets. The findings imply marginally better predictability of Indian stock markets than their Spanish counterparts. The current work strives to compare and contrast the reaction of developed and developing financial markets during the COVID-19 pandemic, which has been argued to share a close resemblance to the Black Swan event when applying a robust research framework. The insights linked to the dependence of stock markets on macroeconomic indicators can be leveraged for policy formulations for augmenting household finance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Utilizing natural resources wisely, reducing pollution, and taking other environmental factors into account are now critical to the prospects for long-term economic growth and, by extension, sustainable development. We investigate the impact of total natural resource rents (NRR) on India's GDP in this study. The data sample consists of NRR and GDP data from the World Bank's official website collected between 1993 and 2020. In the study, the Granger causality test and an augmented autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test were used. The NNR have a significant impact on India's GDP, according to the results of the ARDL model on the framed time series data set. Furthermore, the ARDL bound test reveals that the NRR have a significant short-term and long-term impact on the GDP of the Indian economy. This research contributes to understanding whether an exclusive policy is required for effective management of the complex interactions between various forces in the economic, political, and social environments. This is significant because there is no standard policy in India to improve the efficiency of utility extraction from natural resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines and confirms the varying volatility of the relationship between cryptocurrency and currency markets at different time periods, such as when the market encountered multiple risk events including the US–China trade war, COVID-19, and the Russian–Ukraine war. We employ the Diagonal BEKK model and find that the co-volatility spillover effects between the returns of cryptocurrencies and currencies, with the exception of Tether and the U.S. dollar index, evolved significantly. Furthermore, the co-volatility spillover effects between cryptocurrencies and EUR have the largest effects and fluctuations. Large-cap cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin and Ethereum) have greater co-volatility spillover effects between them and currencies. Regarding the ability of cryptocurrencies to act as safe-haven for currencies, we observe that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether served as safe-havens during the US–China trade war, and Bitcoin was a safe-haven during COVID-19. During the 2022 Russian–Ukraine war, Bitcoin and Tether were safe-havens. Interestingly, our findings point out that Bitcoin provides a more consistent safe-haven function for currency markets. Overall, by including multiple global risk events and a comprehensive dataset, the results support our conjecture (and earlier studies) indicating that the capabilities of cryptocurrency are time-varying and related to market status and risk events with different natures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]