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We evaluated different management alternatives to enhance potential water availability for agriculture under climate change scenarios. The management goal involved maximizing potential water availability, understood as the maximum volume of water supplied at a certain point of the river network that satisfies a defined demand, and taking into account specified reliability requirements. We focused on potential water availability for agriculture and assumed two types of demands: urban supply and irrigation. If potential water availability was not enough to satisfy all irrigation demands, management measures were applied aiming at achieving a compromise solution between resources and demands. The methodological approach consisted of estimation and comparison of runoff for current and future period under climate change effects, calculation of water availability changes due to changes in runoff, and evaluation of the adaptation choices that can modify the distribution of water availability, under climate change. Adaptation choices include modifying water allocation to agriculture, increasing the reservoir storage capacity, improving the efficiency of urban water use, and modifying water allocation to environmental flows. These management measures were evaluated at the desired points of the river network by applying the Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Analysis (WAAPA) model. We simulated the behavior of a set of reservoirs that supply water for a set of prioritized demands, complying with specified ecological flows and accounting for evaporation losses. We applied the methodology in six representative basins of southern Europe: Duero-Douro, Ebro, Guadalquivir, Po, Maritsa-Evros, and Struma-Strymon. While in some basins, such as the Ebro or Struma-Strymon, measures can significantly increase water availability and compensate for a fraction of water scarcity due to climate change, in other basins, like the Guadalquivir, water availability cannot be enhanced by applying the management measures analyzed, and irrigation water use will have to be reduced.

This study presents a regional assessment of future blue water availability in Europe under different assumptions. The baseline period (1960 to 1999) is compared to the near future (2020 to 2059) and the long-term future (2060 to 2099). Blue water availability is estimated as the maximum amount of water supplied at a certain point of the river network that satisfies a defined demand, taking into account specified reliability requirements. Water availability is computed with the geospatial high-resolution Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Assessment (WAAPA) model. The WAAPA model definition for this study extends over 6 million km2 in Europe and considers almost 4000 sub-basins in Europe. The model takes into account 2300 reservoirs larger than 5 hm3, and the dataset of Hydro 1k with 1700 sub-basins. Hydrological scenarios for this study were taken from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-Comparison Project and included simulations of five global climate models under different Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios. The choice of method is useful for evaluating large area regional studies that include high resolution on the systems&acute, characterization. The results highlight large uncertainties associated with a set of local water availability estimates across Europe. Climate model uncertainties for mean annual runoff and potential water availability were found to be higher than scenario uncertainties. Furthermore, the existing hydraulic infrastructure and its management have played an important role by decoupling water availability from hydrologic variability. This is observed for all climate models, the emissions scenarios considered, and for near and long-term future. The balance between water availability and withdrawals is threatened in some regions, such as the Mediterranean region. The results of this study contribute to defining potential challenges in water resource systems and regional risk areas.

This study presents the first continental assessment of water storage and its influence on the availability of water of the river systems of South America. Although hydraulic infrastructure has the potential to cause several impacts on river systems and the environment, their relevance in water resources systems is irrefutable. The human services that dams and reservoirs provide to society, e.g., hydroelectricity, water supply, irrigation, or flood control, are vital services that society requires to develop. Despite this fact, the interactions of dams and reservoirs in the river systems of South America have not been explored from a hydrological perspective. In this study, we present the first assessment of the potential effects of water storage at a basin scale in South America. For this purpose, first we present an analysis of the current conditions and the influence of water storage in the basins of the continent. Then, we estimate the potential water availability of each basin, to evaluate the role of water storage in the availability of water in the continent. Our findings indicate that the ‘Colorado’ and ‘Negro’ basins in Argentina are the most influenced by water storage in the continent. Moreover, our results suggest that reservoirs improve the potential water availability capacity, particularly in the southern basins of the continent. With this study, we expect to provide helpful insights about the current interactions of reservoirs with the river systems of the continent.

Providing adequate water supply following the development of society and ensuring the good status of water-dependent ecosystems is becoming increasingly complex. This is particularly relevant in areas characterized by water scarcity and with unfavourable projections due to climate change, such as the Iberian Peninsula. Water is fully allocated in many water resources systems, while environmental water requirements are intensified. Consequently, it is fairly probable that in the medium and long term water demands will not be satisfied with the current reliability. This fact may particularly affect to irrigation water supply, as the most important consumptive water use. We are developing a National Research Project entitled: Climate scenarios and adaptation of water resources systems (SECA-SRH). The main purpose is to generate knowledge that contributes to the design and implementation of climate change adaptation policies that consider simultaneously technical, economic, social and environmental aspects. The increase of the comprehension of water system behaviour allows decisions making and prioritizing water uses. This would help to achieve the sustainability of the management of water resources systems in the medium and long term. In this study, as part of the mentioned project, we analyse the effect of different criteria for the allocation of environmental flows on the sustainability of the water resources systems in Spain, in the current situation (1989-2019). The availability of water is estimated as the maximum water demand for population and agriculture (irrigation) that can be supplied with a given reliability in a given location of the river network and satisfying environmental flow restrictions. The methodology is based on the use of the high resolution WAAPA model. 720 dams with a reservoir greater than 1 hm3 and 1948 sub-basins are considered. The calculation is made at each dam, at the confluences of the main rivers and for the aggregate set of each sub-basin. The results show that the availability of water in a system is very sensitive to changes in environmental flow regimes. The relationship between reduction in water availability and environmental flows is unevenly distributed in Spain. This result may suggest that the implications of increasing the allocation of water to environmental flows may vary, depending on the hydrological regime and storage availability.

Las alteraciones del sistema climático debido al aumento de concentraciones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) en la atmósfera, tendrán implicaciones importantes para la agricultura, el medio ambiente y la sociedad. La agricultura es una fuente importante de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (globalmente contribuye al 12% del total de GEI), y al mismo tiempo puede ser parte de la solución para mitigar las emisiones y adaptarse al cambio climático. Las acciones frente al desafío del cambio climático deben priorizar estrategias de adaptación y mitigación en la agricultura dentro de la agenda para el desarrollo de políticas. La agricultura es por tanto crucial para la conservación y el uso sostenible de los recursos naturales, que ya están sometidos a impactos del cambio climático, al mismo tiempo que debe suministrar alimentos para una población creciente. Por tanto, es necesaria una coordinación entre las actuales estrategias de política climática y agrícola. El concepto de agricultura climáticamente inteligente ha surgido para integrar todos estos servicios de la producción agraria. Al evaluar opciones para reducir las amenazas del cambio climático para la agricultura y el medio ambiente, surgen dos preguntas de investigación: • ¿Qué información es necesaria para definir prácticas agrarias inteligentes? • ¿Qué factores influyen en la implementación de las prácticas agrarias inteligentes? Esta Tesis trata de proporcionar información relevante sobre estas cuestiones generales con el fin de apoyar el desarrollo de la política climática. Se centra en sistemas agrícolas Mediterráneos. Esta Tesis integra diferentes métodos y herramientas para evaluar las alternativas de gestión agrícola y políticas con potencial para responder a las necesidades de mitigación y adaptación al cambio climático. La investigación incluye enfoques cuantitativos y cualitativos e integra variables agronómicas, de clima y socioeconómicas a escala local y regional. La investigación aporta una recopilación de datos sobre evidencia experimental existente, y un estudio integrado sobre el comportamiento de los agricultores y las posibles alternativas de cambio (por ejemplo, la tecnología, la gestión agrícola y la política climática). Los casos de estudio de esta Tesis - el humedal de Doñana (S España) y la región de Aragón (NE España) - permiten ilustrar dos sistemas Mediterráneos representativos, donde el uso intensivo de la agricultura y las condiciones semiáridas son ya una preocupación. Por este motivo, la adopción de estrategias de mitigación y adaptación puede desempeñar un papel muy importante a la hora de encontrar un equilibrio entre la equidad, la seguridad económica y el medio ambiente en los escenarios de cambio climático. La metodología multidisciplinar de esta tesis incluye una amplia gama de enfoques y métodos para la recopilación y el análisis de datos. La toma de datos se apoya en la revisión bibliográfica de evidencia experimental, bases de datos públicas nacionales e internacionales y datos primarios recopilados mediante entrevistas semi-estructuradas con los grupos de interés (administraciones públicas, responsables políticos, asesores agrícolas, científicos y agricultores) y encuestas con agricultores. Los métodos de análisis incluyen: meta-análisis, modelos de gestión de recursos hídricos (modelo WAAPA), análisis multicriterio para la toma de decisiones, métodos estadísticos (modelos de regresión logística y de Poisson) y herramientas para el desarrollo de políticas basadas en la ciencia. El meta-análisis identifica los umbrales críticos de temperatura que repercuten en el crecimiento y el desarrollo de los tres cultivos principales para la seguridad alimentaria (arroz, maíz y trigo). El modelo WAAPA evalúa el efecto del cambio climático en la gestión del agua para la agricultura de acuerdo a diferentes alternativas políticas y escenarios climáticos. El análisis multicriterio evalúa la viabilidad de las prácticas agrícolas de mitigación en dos escenarios climáticos de acuerdo a la percepción de diferentes expertos. Los métodos estadísticos analizan los determinantes y las barreras para la adopción de prácticas agrícolas de mitigación. Las herramientas para el desarrollo de políticas basadas en la ciencia muestran el potencial y el coste para reducir GEI mediante las prácticas agrícolas. En general, los resultados de esta Tesis proporcionan información sobre la adaptación y la mitigación del cambio climático a nivel de explotación para desarrollar una política climática más integrada y ayudar a los agricultores en la toma de decisiones. Los resultados muestran las temperaturas umbral y la respuesta del arroz, el maíz y el trigo a temperaturas extremas, siendo estos valores de gran utilidad para futuros estudios de impacto y adaptación. Los resultados obtenidos también aportan una serie de estrategias flexibles para la adaptación y la mitigación a escala local, proporcionando a su vez una mejor comprensión sobre las barreras y los incentivos para su adopción. La capacidad de mejorar la disponibilidad de agua y el potencial y el coste de reducción de GEI se han estimado para estas estrategias en los casos de estudio. Estos resultados podrían ayudar en el desarrollo de planes locales de adaptación y políticas regionales de mitigación, especialmente en las regiones Mediterráneas. ABSTRACT Alterations in the climatic system due to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are expected to have important implications for agriculture, the environment and society. Agriculture is an important source of GHG emissions (12 % of global anthropogenic GHG), but it is also part of the solution to mitigate emissions and to adapt to climate change. Responses to face the challenge of climate change should place agricultural adaptation and mitigation strategies at the heart of the climate change agenda. Agriculture is crucial for the conservation and sustainable use of natural resources, which already stand under pressure due to climate change impacts, increased population, pollution and fragmented and uncoordinated climate policy strategies. The concept of climate smart agriculture has emerged to encompass all these issues as a whole. When assessing choices aimed at reducing threats to agriculture and the environment under climate change, two research questions arise: • What information defines smart farming choices? • What drives the implementation of smart farming choices? This Thesis aims to provide information on these broad questions in order to support climate policy development focusing in some Mediterranean agricultural systems. This Thesis integrates methods and tools to evaluate potential farming and policy choices to respond to mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The assessment involves both quantitative and qualitative approaches and integrates agronomic, climate and socioeconomic variables at local and regional scale. The assessment includes the collection of data on previous experimental evidence, and the integration of farmer behaviour and policy choices (e.g., technology, agricultural management and climate policy). The case study areas -- the Doñana coastal wetland (S Spain) and the Aragón region (NE Spain) – illustrate two representative Mediterranean regions where the intensive use of agriculture and the semi-arid conditions are already a concern. Thus the adoption of mitigation and adaptation measures can play a significant role for reaching a balance among equity, economic security and the environment under climate change scenarios. The multidisciplinary methodology of this Thesis includes a wide range of approaches for collecting and analysing data. The data collection process include revision of existing experimental evidence, public databases and the contribution of primary data gathering by semi-structured interviews with relevant stakeholders (i.e., public administrations, policy makers, agricultural advisors, scientist and farmers among others) and surveys given to farmers. The analytical methods include meta-analysis, water availability models (WAAPA model), decision making analysis (MCA, multi-criteria analysis), statistical approaches (Logistic and Poisson regression models) and science-base policy tools (MACC, marginal abatement cost curves and SOC abatement wedges). The meta-analysis identifies the critical temperature thresholds which impact on the growth and development of three major crops (i.e., rice, maize and wheat). The WAAPA model assesses the effect of climate change for agricultural water management under different policy choices and climate scenarios. The multi-criteria analysis evaluates the feasibility of mitigation farming practices under two climate scenarios according to the expert views. The statistical approaches analyses the drivers and the barriers for the adoption of mitigation farming practices. The science-base policy tools illustrate the mitigation potential and cost effectiveness of the farming practices. Overall, the results of this Thesis provide information to adapt to, and mitigate of, climate change at farm level to support the development of a comprehensive climate policy and to assist farmers. The findings show the key temperature thresholds and response to extreme temperature effects for rice, maize and wheat, so such responses can be included into crop impact and adaptation models. A portfolio of flexible adaptation and mitigation choices at local scale are identified. The results also provide a better understanding of the stakeholders oppose or support to adopt the choices which could be used to incorporate in local adaptation plans and mitigation regional policy. The findings include estimations for the farming and policy choices on the capacity to improve water supply reliability, abatement potential and cost-effective in Mediterranean regions.

En el presente siglo, la escasez de agua pone en peligro la seguridad alimentaria y el desarrollo económico de varias regiones del mundo tanto a nivel nacional como local. Factores adicionales como el crecimiento poblacional, el incremento no controlado de actividades industriales, o los cambios proyectados en los patrones de precipitación, temperatura y otras variables hidrometeorológicas, hacen prever una presión cada vez más notable sobre los recursos hídricos renovables disponibles, lo que implica que el suministro equitativo del agua para satisfacer todas las demandas requeridas tanto antropogénicas como medioambientales, estará cada vez más comprometido. Esta tesis propone y analiza tres índices de escasez potencial hídrica a una escala local y regional, los cuales están basados en información hidrológica y son obtenidos de modelos que pueden contemplan escenarios de cambio climático. Los tres índices de recursos hídricos propuestos en este trabajo son el índice de escasez en función del área total de la cuenca (IEA), el índice de escasez en función de la aportación media anual de la cuenca (IEF) y el índice de escasez en función la población total de cada cuenca (IEP). El trabajo desarrollado en esta tesis se divide en dos casos de estudio. El caso de estudio principal en esta tesis es el área continental de Sudamérica, sobre un modelo topológico original que contempla más de 4600 cuencas hídricas. Los resultados de este caso de estudio incluyen el desarrollo de la base de datos sobre presas y embalses para Sudamérica "Dataset of Georeferenced Dams in South America (DDSA)", el análisis de las dinámicas hidrológicas de los sistemas fluviales de este continente, la cuantificación de disponibilidad potencial de agua para el continente, y finalmente, el cálculo y análisis de los índices de escasez potencial hídrica. El segundo caso de estudio de esta tesis comprende el análisis de la disponibilidad potencial de agua presente y para escenarios futuros en la región peninsular de España e Islas Baleares sobre un modelo topológico de más de 1940 cuencas hídricas. Para el caso de esta tesis, se definió a la disponibilidad potencial de agua como la máxima demanda de agua que puede ser satisfecha en un punto dado del sistema hídrico, bajo ciertos parámetros de garantía dentro del mismo sistema. Asimismo, para el análisis de la disponibilidad potencial de agua se utilizó el modelo "Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Analysis" (WAAPA) desarrollado por Garrote. De la misma forma, para el caso de esta tesis la escasez potencial de agua se define como la reducción continua en la disponibilidad potencial de agua en relación con su demanda. Los resultados obtenidos del índice IEP indican que el 39% de las cuencas reguladas del caso de estudio de Sudamérica se encuentran en un escenario de suficiencia relativa de agua, en 10% de las cuencas presentan problemas potenciales de estrés hídrico, el 11% de las cuencas se encuentran en un escenario potencial de escasez hídrica y, el 40% restante corresponden a cuencas en un escenario potencial de escasez absoluta de agua. Adicionalmente, los resultados indica que el 46% de cuencas reguladas del caso de estudio de Sudamérica que presentan problemas potenciales de estrés o escasez hídrica, corresponden a cuencas con una aportación media anual medias y bajas. ABSTRACT Water scarcity represents an increasing threat to food security and economic development in many parts of the world for the upcoming decades, both at a national and local scale. In addition, several such as population growth, uncontrolled industrial activity, or projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other hydrological variables, suggest an increasing and notable pressure on the availability of renewable water resources, which implies that an equitable supply of water intended to meet all required anthropogenic and environmental water demands, will become increasingly complicated. This thesis has been developed with the intention of proposing water scarcity in-dexes at a local and regional scale based on hydrological information obtained from models capable of contemplating climate change scenarios. The three indices of water re-sources proposed in this work are: the water scarcity index as a function of the area of the basin (IEA), the water scarcity index as a function of the mean annual flow of the basin (IEF) and the water scarcity index as a function of the population of the basin (IEP). The research for this thesis is divided into two case studies. The main case study in this thesis is focused on the continental area of South America, which includes the development of an original topological model composed of more than 4600 basins. The results of this case study include the creation of a database on dams and reservoirs for South America "Dataset of Georeferenced Dams in South America (DDSA)", the analysis of the hydrological dynamics of the fluvial systems of this continent, the quantification of the potential water availability for the basins of the continent´s model, and finally, the calculation and analysis of the potential water scarcity indices. The second case study of this thesis includes the analysis of the potential water availability for present and future scenarios in a topological model based on the peninsular region of Spain and the Balearic Islands composed of more than 1940 basins. For the case of this thesis, the potential water availability was defined as the maximum demand for water that can be satisfied at a given point in the water system, under certain warranty parameters. Likewise, the analysis of the potential water availability was carried using the "Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Analysis" (WAAPA) model developed by Garrote. In the same way, for the case of this thesis the potential water scarcity is defined as the continuous reduction in the potential water availability of water in relation to its demand. The results obtained from the IEP index indicate that 39% of the basins in the South American case study could be considered in a scenario of relative water sufficiency, 10% of the basins present potential problems of water stress, 11% of the basins are in a potential scenario of water scarcity, and the remaining 40% correspond to basins in a potential scenario of absolute water scarcity. Additionally, the results indicate that 46% of the basins of the South American case study that present potential problems of stress or water scarcity correspond to basins with medium or low mean annual flows.

Esta Tesis realiza una contribución metodológica al estudio del impacto del cambio climático sobre los usos del agua, centrándose particularmente en la agricultura. Tomando en consideración su naturaleza distinta, la metodología aborda de forma integral los impactos sobre la agricultura de secano y la agricultura de regadío. Para ello incorpora diferentes modelos agrícolas y de agua que conjuntamente con las simulaciones de los escenarios climáticos permiten determinar indicadores de impacto basados en la productividad de los cultivos, para el caso de la agricultura de secano, e indicadores de impacto basados en la disponibilidad de agua para irrigación, para el caso de la agricultura de regadío. La metodología toma en consideración el efecto de la variabilidad climática en la agricultura, evaluando las necesidades de adaptación y gestión asociadas a los impactos medios y a la variabilidad en la productividad de los cultivos y el efecto de la variabilidad hidrológica en la disponibilidad de agua para regadío. Considerando la gran cantidad de información proporcionada por las salidas de las simulaciones de los escenarios climáticos y su complejidad para procesarla, se ha desarrollado una herramienta de cálculo automatizada que integra diferentes escenarios climáticos, métodos y modelos que permiten abordar el impacto del cambio climático sobre la agricultura, a escala de grandes extensiones. El procedimiento metodológico parte del análisis de los escenarios climáticos en situación actual (1961-1990) y futura (2071-2100) para determinar su fiabilidad y conocer qué dicen exactamente las proyecciones climáticas a cerca de los impactos esperados en las principales variables que intervienen en el ciclo hidrológico. El análisis hidrológico se desarrolla en los ámbitos territoriales de la planificación hidrológica en España, considerando la disponibilidad de información para validar los resultados en escenario de control. Se utilizan como datos observados las series de escorrentía en régimen natural estimadas el modelo hidrológico SIMPA que está calibrado en la totalidad del territorio español. Al trabajar a escala de grandes extensiones, la limitada disponibilidad de datos o la falta de modelos hidrológicos correctamente calibrados para obtener los valores de escorrentía, muchas veces dificulta el proceso de evaluación, por tanto, en este estudio se plantea una metodología que compara diferentes métodos de interpolación y alternativas para generar series anuales de escorrentía que minimicen el sesgo con respecto a los valores observados. Así, en base a la alternativa que genera los mejores resultados, se obtienen series mensuales corregidas a partir de las simulaciones de los modelos climáticos regionales (MCR). Se comparan cuatro métodos de interpolación para obtener los valores de las variables a escala de cuenca hidrográfica, haciendo énfasis en la capacidad de cada método para reproducir los valores observados. Las alternativas utilizadas consideran la utilización de la escorrentía directa simulada por los MCR y la escorrentía media anual calculada utilizando cinco fórmulas climatológicas basadas en el índice de aridez. Los resultados se comparan además con la escorrentía global de referencia proporcionada por la UNH/GRDC que en la actualidad es el “mejor estimador” de la escorrentía actual a gran escala. El impacto del cambio climático en la agricultura de secano se evalúa considerando el efecto combinado de los riesgos asociados a las anomalías dadas por los cambios en la media y la variabilidad de la productividad de los cultivos en las regiones agroclimáticas de Europa. Este procedimiento facilita la determinación de las necesidades de adaptación y la identificación de los impactos regionales que deben ser abordados con mayor urgencia en función de los riesgos y oportunidades identificadas. Para ello se utilizan funciones regionales de productividad que han sido desarrolladas y calibradas en estudios previos en el ámbito europeo. Para el caso de la agricultura de regadío, se utiliza la disponibilidad de agua para irrigación como un indicador del impacto bajo escenarios de cambio climático. Considerando que la mayoría de estudios se han centrado en evaluar la disponibilidad de agua en régimen natural, en este trabajo se incorpora el efecto de las infraestructuras hidráulicas al momento de calcular el recurso disponible bajo escenarios de cambio climático Este análisis se desarrolla en el ámbito español considerando la disponibilidad de información, tanto de las aportaciones como de los modelos de explotación de los sistemas hidráulicos. Para ello se utiliza el modelo de gestión de recursos hídricos WAAPA (Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Assessment) que permite calcular la máxima demanda que puede atenderse bajo determinados criterios de garantía. Se utiliza las series mensuales de escorrentía observadas y las series mensuales de escorrentía corregidas por la metodología previamente planteada con el objeto de evaluar la disponibilidad de agua en escenario de control. Se construyen proyecciones climáticas utilizando los cambios en los valores medios y la variabilidad de las aportaciones simuladas por los MCR y también utilizando una fórmula climatológica basada en el índice de aridez. Se evalúan las necesidades de gestión en términos de la satisfacción de las demandas de agua para irrigación a través de la comparación entre la disponibilidad de agua en situación actual y la disponibilidad de agua bajo escenarios de cambio climático. Finalmente, mediante el desarrollo de una herramienta de cálculo que facilita el manejo y automatización de una gran cantidad de información compleja obtenida de las simulaciones de los MCR se obtiene un proceso metodológico que evalúa de forma integral el impacto del cambio climático sobre la agricultura a escala de grandes extensiones, y a la vez permite determinar las necesidades de adaptación y gestión en función de las prioridades identificadas. ABSTRACT This thesis presents a methodological contribution for studying the impact of climate change on water use, focusing particularly on agriculture. Taking into account the different nature of the agriculture, this methodology addresses the impacts on rainfed and irrigated agriculture, integrating agricultural and water planning models with climate change simulations scenarios in order to determine impact indicators based on crop productivity and water availability for irrigation, respectively. The methodology incorporates the effect of climate variability on agriculture, assessing adaptation and management needs associated with mean impacts, variability in crop productivity and the effect of hydrologic variability on water availability for irrigation. Considering the vast amount of information provided by the outputs of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations and also its complexity for processing it, a tool has been developed to integrate different climate scenarios, methods and models to address the impact of climate change on agriculture at large scale. Firstly, a hydrological analysis of the climate change scenarios is performed under current (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) situation in order to know exactly what the models projections say about the expected impact on the main variables involved in the hydrological cycle. Due to the availability of information for validating the results in current situation, the hydrological analysis is developed in the territorial areas of water planning in Spain, where the values of naturalized runoff have been estimated by the hydrological model SIMPA, which are used as observed data. By working in large-scale studies, the limited availability of data or lack of properly calibrated hydrological model makes difficult to obtain runoff time series. So as, a methodology is proposed to compare different interpolation methods and alternatives to generate annual times series that minimize the bias with respect to observed values. Thus, the best alternative is selected in order to obtain bias-corrected monthly time series from the RCM simulations. Four interpolation methods for downscaling runoff to the basin scale from different RCM are compared with emphasis on the ability of each method to reproduce the observed behavior of this variable. The alternatives consider the use of the direct runoff of the RCMs and the mean annual runoff calculated using five functional forms of the aridity index. The results are also compared with the global runoff reference provided by the UNH/GRDC dataset, as a contrast of the “best estimator” of current runoff on a large scale. Secondly, the impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture is assessed considering the combined effect of the risks associated with anomalies given by changes in the mean and variability of crop productivity in the agro-climatic regions of Europe. This procedure allows determining adaptation needs based on the regional impacts that must be addressed with greater urgency in light of the risks and opportunities identified. Statistical models of productivity response are used for this purpose which have been developed and calibrated in previous European study. Thirdly, the impact of climate change on irrigated agriculture is evaluated considering the water availability for irrigation as an indicator of the impact. Given that most studies have focused on assessing water availability in natural regime, the effect of regulation is incorporated in this approach. The analysis is developed in the Spanish territory considering the available information of the observed stream flows and the regulation system. The Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Assessment (WAAPA) model is used in this study, which allows obtaining the maximum demand that could be supplied under certain conditions (demand seasonal distribution, water supply system management, and reliability criteria) for different policy alternatives. The monthly bias corrected time series obtained by previous methodology are used in order to assess water availability in current situation. Climate change projections are constructed taking into account the variation in mean and coefficient of variation simulated by the RCM. The management needs are determined by the agricultural demands satisfaction through the comparison between water availability under current conditions and under climate change projections. Therefore, the methodology allows evaluating the impact of climate change on agriculture to large scale, using a tool that facilitates the process of a large amount of complex information provided by the RCM simulations, in order to determine the adaptation and management needs in accordance with the priorities of the indentified impacts.

Rice production in coastal wetlands provides critical ecosystem services that range from flood control to wildlife habitat. In the Iberian Peninsula rice was introduced in the 10th Century. Today Iberian rice accounts for about one quarter of the total rice production of the European Union, almost exclusively cultivated in the coastal wetlands of Spain, with permanent flooding. The intensive water management required to produce rice stands at a crucial point since freshwater supply is deteriorating at an unprecedented rate. Here we explore flexible adaptation options to climate change in the Donana wetlands - a world heritage and biodiversity site - from two points of view: What are the policy options for agricultural water management in view of climate change? How can informed stakeholders contribute to better adaptation? The first question is addressed by simulating water availability to farmers with the WAAPA model under a range of adaptation policy options derived from the view of the local communities. The second question was addressed by means of participatory research. Adaptation options are framed according to the local environmental, social and policy context. Results suggest that perception on the potential role of new water infrastructure and farming subsidies dominates the view of local communities. The choices of the stakeholders that could be simulated with the hydrological model, were quantified in terms of additional water availability for the rice farming, therefore providing a quantitative measure to the qualitative solutions. Information provided during the study shaped the final adaptation options developed. Our research contributes to the definition of sustainable rice production in Europe.