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An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

An extensive new multi-proxy database of paleo-temperature time series (Temperature 12k) enables a more robust analysis of global mean surface temperature (GMST) and associated uncertainties than was previously available. We applied five different statistical methods to reconstruct the GMST of the past 12,000 years (Holocene). Each method used different approaches to averaging the globally distributed time series and to characterizing various sources of uncertainty, including proxy temperature, chronology and methodological choices. The results were aggregated to generate a multi-method ensemble of plausible GMST and latitudinal-zone temperature reconstructions with a realistic range of uncertainties. The warmest 200-year-long interval took place around 6500 years ago when GMST was 0.7 °C (0.3, 1.8) warmer than the 19 th Century (median, 5 th , 95 th percentiles). Following the Holocene global thermal maximum, GMST cooled at an average rate -0.08 °C per 1000 years (-0.24, -0.05). The multi-method ensembles and the code used to generate them highlight the utility of the Temperature 12k database, and they are now available for future use by studies aimed at understanding Holocene evolution of the Earth system.

A comprehensive database of paleoclimate records is needed to place recent warming into the longer-term context of natural climate variability. We present a global compilation of quality-controlled, published, temperature-sensitive proxy records extending back 12,000 years through the Holocene. Data were compiled from 679 sites where time series cover at least 4000 years, are resolved at sub-millennial scale (median spacing of 400 years or finer) and have at least one age control point every 3000 years, with cut-off values slackened in data-sparse regions. The data derive from lake sediment (51%), marine sediment (31%), peat (11%), glacier ice (3%), and other natural archives. The database contains 1319 records, including 157 from the Southern Hemisphere. The multi-proxy database comprises paleotemperature time series based on ecological assemblages, as well as biophysical and geochemical indicators that reflect mean annual or seasonal temperatures, as encoded in the database. This database can be used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of Holocene temperature at global to regional scales, and is publicly available in Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format.

The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average since the mid 20th century, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA). These profound changes to the Arctic system have coincided with a period of ostensibly more frequent events of extreme weather across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes, including extreme heat and rainfall events and recent severe winters. Though winter temperatures have generally warmed since 1960 over mid-to-high latitudes, the acceleration in the rate of warming at high-latitudes, relative to the rest of the NH, started approximately in 1990. Trends since 1990 show cooling over the NH continents, especially in Northern Eurasia. The possible link between Arctic change and mid-latitude climate and weather has spurred a rush of new observational and modeling studies. A number of workshops held during 2013-2014 have helped frame the problem and have called for continuing and enhancing efforts for improving our understanding of Arctic-mid-latitude linkages and its attribution to the occurrence of extreme climate and weather events. Although these workshops have outlined some of the major challenges and provided broad recommendations, further efforts are needed to synthesize the diversified research results to identify where community consensus and gaps exist. Building upon findings and recommendations of the previous workshops, the US CLIVAR Working Group on Arctic Change and Possible Influence on Mid-latitude Climate and Weather convened an international workshop at Georgetown University in Washington, DC, on February 1-3, 2017. Experts in the fields of atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere sciences assembled to assess the rapidly evolving state of understanding, identify consensus on knowledge and gaps in research, and develop specific actions to accelerate progress within the research community. With more than 100 participants, the workshop was the largest and most comprehensive gathering of climate scientists to address the topic to date. In this white paper, we synthesize and discuss outcomes from this workshop and activities involving many of the working group members., Workshop Findings: Rapid Arctic change - Emergence of new forcing (external and internal) of atmospheric circulation: Rapid Arctic change is evident in the observations and is simulated and projected by global climate models. AA has been attributed to sea ice and snow decline (regionally and seasonally varying). However this cannot explain why AA is greatest in winter and weakest in summer. It was argued at the workshop that other factors can also greatly contribute to AA including: increased downwelling longwave radiation from greenhouse gases (including greater water vapor concentrations from local and remote sources); increasing ocean heat content, due to local and remote processes; regional and hemispheric atmospheric circulation changes; increased poleward heat transport in the atmosphere and ocean; and cloud radiative forcing. In particular, there is emerging observational evidence that an enhanced poleward transport of sensible and latent heat plays a very important role in the AA of the recent decades, and that this enhancement is mostly fueled by changes in the atmospheric circulation. We concluded that our understanding of AA is incomplete, especially the relative contributions from the different radiative, thermodynamic, and dynamic processes. Arctic mid-latitude linkages - Focusing on seasonal and regional linkages and addressing sources of inconsistency and uncertainty among studies: The topic of Arctic mid-latitude linkages is controversial and was vigorously debated at the workshop. However, we concluded that rapid Arctic change is contributing to changes in mid-latitude climate and weather, as well as the occurrence of extreme events. But how significant the contribution is and what mechanisms are responsible are less well understood. Based on the synthesis efforts of observational and modeling studies, we identified a list of proposed physical processes or mechanisms that may play important roles in linking Arctic change to mid-latitude climate and weather. The list, ordered from high to low confidence, includes: increasing geopotential thickness over the polar cap; weakening of the thermal wind; modulating stratosphere-troposphere coupling; exciting anomalous planetary waves or stationary Rossby wave trains in winter and modulating transient synoptic waves in summer; altering storm tracks and behavior of blockings; and increasing frequency of occurrence of summer wave resonance. The pathway considered most robust is the propagation of planetary/Rossby waves excited by the diminished Barents-Kara sea ice, contributing to a northwestward expansion and intensification of the Siberian high leading to cold Eurasian winters., Opportunities and Recommendations: An important goal of the workshop was achieved: to hasten progress towards consensus understanding and identification of knowledge gaps. Based on the workshop findings, we identify specific opportunities to utilize observations and models, particularly a combination of them, to enable and accelerate progress in determining the mechanisms of rapid Arctic change and its mid-latitude linkages. Observations: Due to the remoteness and harsh environmental conditions of the Arctic, in situ observational time series are highly limited spatially and temporally in the region.Six recommendations to expand approaches using observational datasets and analyses of Arctic change and mid-latitude linkages include: Synthesize new Arctic observations;Create physically-based sea ice-ocean surface forcing datasets;Systematically employ proven and new metrics;Analyze paleoclimate data and new longer observational datasets;Utilize new observational analysis methods that extend beyond correlative relationships; andConsider both established and new theories of atmospheric and oceanic dynamics to interpret and guide observational and modeling studies. Model experiments: We acknowledge that models provide the primary tool for gaining a mechanistic understanding of variability and change in the Arctic and at mid-latitudes. Coordinated modeling studies should include approaches using a hierarchy of models from conceptual, simple component, or coupled models to complex atmospheric climate models or fully coupled Earth system models. We further recommend to force dynamical models with consistent boundary forcings.Three recommendations to advance modeling and synthesis understanding of Arctic change and mid-latitude linkages include: Establish a Modeling Task Force to plan protocols, forcing, and output parameters for coordinated modeling experiments (Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project; PAMIP);Furnish experiment datasets to the community through open access (via Earth System Grid); andPromote analysis within the community of the coordinated modeling experiments to understand mechanisms for AA and to further understand pathways for Arctic mid-latitude linkages.

Freshwater crayfish are amongst the largest macroinvertebrates and play a keystone role in the ecosystems they occupy. Understanding the global distribution of these animals is often hindered due to a paucity of distributional data. Additionally, non-native crayfish introductions are becoming more frequent, which can cause severe environmental and economic impacts. Management decisions related to crayfish and their habitats require accurate, up-to-date distribution data and mapping tools. Such data are currently patchily distributed with limited accessibility and are rarely up-to-date. To address these challenges, we developed a versatile e-portal to host distributional data of freshwater crayfish and their pathogens (using Aphanomyces astaci, the causative agent of the crayfish plague, as the most prominent example). Populated with expert data and operating in near real-time, World of Crayfish™ is a living, publicly available database providing worldwide distributional data sourced by experts in the field. The database offers open access to the data through specialized standard geospatial services (Web Map Service, Web Feature Service) enabling users to view, embed, and download customizable outputs for various applications. The platform is designed to support technical enhancements in the future, with the potential to eventually incorporate various additional features. This tool serves as a step forward towards a modern era of conservation planning and management of freshwater biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heterogeneous radiative forcing in mid-latitudes, such as that exerted by aerosols, has been found to affect the Arctic climate, though the mechanisms remain debated. In this study, we leverage deep learning (DL) techniques to explore the complex response of the Arctic climate system to local radiative forcing over Europe. We conducted sensitivity experiments using the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) coupled with atmosphere–ocean–land-surface components. Large-scale circulation patterns can mediate the impact of the forcing on Arctic climate dynamics. We employed a DL-based clustering approach to classify large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. To enhance the analysis of how these patterns impact the Arctic climate, the poleward moist static energy transport (PMSET) associated with the atmospheric circulation patterns was incorporated as an additional similarity metric in the clustering process. Furthermore, we developed a novel method to analyze the circulation patterns' contributions to various climatic parameter anomalies. Our findings indicate that the negative radiative forcing over Europe alters existing circulation patterns and their occurrence frequency without introducing new ones. Specifically, our analysis revealed that while the regional radiative forcing alters the occurrence frequencies of the circulation patterns, these changes are not the primary drivers of the forcing's impact on the Arctic parameters. Instead, it is the shifts in the mean spatial characteristics of the atmospheric circulation patterns, induced by the forcing, that predominantly determine the effects on the Arctic climate. Our methodology facilitates the uncovering of complex, nonlinear interactions within the climate system, capturing nuances that are often obscured in broader seasonal anomaly analyses. This approach enables a deeper understanding of the dynamics driving observed climatic anomalies and their links to specific atmospheric circulation patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change caused predominately by carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuel use is a critical issue for our future. It is incumbent on science educators to learn about it and teach it in ways that illustrate the power of science to understand climatic changes and model past, present, and possible climate futures. It is equally important for educators to address alternative explanations that do not cause present warming. We provide sufficient background to understand the effects of atmospheric CO2 on climate, how we know past values of both CO2 and temperature, and how mathematical models lead to a quantitative understanding and predictions of increases in temperature on doubling atmospheric CO2. We discuss alternative but incorrect explanations for present warming that are employed by those who use misinformation and disinformation to take attention away from the main cause, the burning of fossil fuels. Guided student activities are provided to help students develop an understanding of the causes and strategies to mitigate the worst effects of climate change. We must provide students with a sound understanding of climate change to empower them with the knowledge to make effective choices. Informed students can develop into agents of change as we prepare them to live in their changing climate futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought and pluvial extremes are defined as deviations from typical climatology; however, background climatology can shift over time in a non‐stationary climate, impacting interpretations of extremes. This study evaluated trends in meteorological drought and pluvial extremes by merging tree‐ring reconstructions, observations, and climate‐model simulations spanning 850–2100 CE across North America to determine whether modern and projected future precipitation lies outside the range of natural climate variability. Our results found widespread and spatially consistent exacerbation of drought and pluvial extremes, especially summer drought and winter pluvials, with drying in the west and south, wetting trends in the northeast, and intensification of both extremes across the east and north. Our study suggests that climate change has already shifted precipitation climatology beyond pre‐Industrial climatology and is projected to further intensify ongoing shifts. Plain Language Summary: Managing water resources has become challenging due to the effect of human‐caused climate change on precipitation. This study examines trends in droughts and pluvials from the distant past (850 CE) to the projected future (2100 CE) to determine whether precipitation extremes in the modern, Industrial era and future are beyond what is typical of natural climate variability in North America. Trends were generated by merging information from tree rings, observations, and climate models using a novel statistical approach. Results indicate the widespread intensification of both drought and pluvials–especially summer drought and winter pluvials during the modern and future periods. Spatially, southern and western regions of North America are becoming drier, while the northeast is getting wetter, and central areas of North America show a wider range between drought and pluvial years. Our study suggests that anthropogenic climate change has already modified drought and pluvial extremes beyond natural, pre‐Industrial conditions and these ongoing trends are projected to intensify through the future. Key Points: This study models seasonal drought and pluvial trends, merging reconstructions, observations, and projections from 850 to 2100 CEResults show widespread exacerbation of both extremes with overall drying (wetting) in southern (northeastern) North AmericaModern drought and pluvial distributions are outside pre‐Industrial (1850) conditions, and exhibiting substantial shifts in some regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates geochemical indicators (TOC, TN, C/N, δ13Corg, δ15N, and pollen indicators) from sediment samples of Zigetang Co Lake on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) to explore past climate changes in the lake basin. The findings aim to provide essential data for developing sustainable strategies for the TP region. From 14.0 to 10.8 cal. ka BP, the δ15N, TOC, TN, and δ13Corg value of the lake sediments was relatively low; this indicated a low organic matter input into the lake, reflecting a probably cold and arid environment. In addition, the pollen was primarily composed of Artemisia and Gramineae, which are adapted to cold environments, further confirming that the climate during this period was likely cold and dry. From 10.8 to 8.2 cal. ka BP, the changes in the main plant composition were likely due to increased solar radiation, the onset of the monsoon, and higher temperatures and precipitation, which created more favorable conditions for the growth of Cyperaceae. From 8.2 to 4.2 cal. ka BP, when the solar radiation weakened and the monsoon diminished, the basin maintained relatively high water levels, with regional precipitation being likely influenced by westerly winds. From 4.2 to 0.01 cal. ka BP, δ13Corg and δ15N initially decreased and then increased, which was likely a transition from a cold–wet climate to warm–dry conditions during the late Holocene, and the Pollen sum also showed significant changes. Understanding climate evolution and vegetation changes is crucial for formulating timely policies to ensure regional sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paleoclimatological field reconstructions are valuable for understanding past hydroclimatic variability, which is crucial for assessing potential future hydroclimate changes. Despite being as impactful on societies as temperature variability, hydroclimatic variability – particularly beyond the instrumental record – has received less attention. The reconstruction of globally complete fields of climate variables lacks adequate proxy data from tropical regions like South America, limiting our understanding of past hydroclimatic changes in these areas. This study addresses this gap using low-resolution climate archives, including speleothems, previously omitted from reconstructions. Speleothems record climate variations on decadal to centennial timescales and provide a rich dataset for the otherwise proxy-data-scarce region of tropical South America. By employing a multi-timescale paleoclimate data assimilation approach, we synthesize climate proxy records and climate model simulations capable of simulating water isotopologs in the atmosphere to reconstruct 2000 years of South American climate. This includes surface air temperature, precipitation amount, drought index, isotopic composition of precipitation amount and the intensity of the South American Summer Monsoon. The reconstruction reveals anomalous climate periods: a wetter and colder phase during the Little Ice Age (∼ 1500–1850 CE) and a drier, warmer period corresponding to the early Medieval Climate Anomaly (∼ 600–900 CE). However, these patterns are not uniform across the continent, with climate trends in northeastern Brazil and the Southern Cone not following the patterns of the rest of the continent, indicating regional variability. The anomalies are more pronounced than in previous reconstructions but match trends found in local proxy record studies, thus highlighting the importance of including speleothem proxies. The multi-timescale approach is essential for reconstructing multi-decadal and centennial climate variability. Despite methodological uncertainties regarding climate model biases and proxy record interpretations, this study marks a crucial first step in incorporating low-resolution proxy records such as speleothems into climate field reconstructions using a multi-timescale approach. Adequately extracting and using the information from speleothems potentially enhances insights into past hydroclimatic variability and hydroclimate projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alluvial parent material soil is an important soil type found on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) in China. However, due to the limited age data for alluvial soils, the relationship between alluvial geomorphological processes and soil pedogenic processes remains unclear. In this study, three representative alluvial parent material profiles on the Buha River alluvial plain in the Qinghai Lake Basin, northeast QTP, were analyzed using the optical luminescence (OSL) dating method. Combined with physical and chemical analyses of the soil, we further analyzed the pedogenic process of alluvial soil. The alluvial parent material of the Buha alluvial plain predominately yielded ages between 11.9 and 9.1 ka, indicating that the alluvial soil began to form during the early Holocene. The development of the alluvial soil on the first-order terrace presents characteristics of entisol with multiple burial episodes, mainly between 8.5 and 4.0 ka, responding to the warm and humid middle Holocene and high lake levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical forests are changing in composition and productivity, probably in response to changes in climate and disturbances. The responses to these multiple environmental drivers, and the mechanisms underlying the changes, remain largely unknown. Here, we use a functional trait approach on timescales of 10,000 years to assess how climate and disturbances influence the community-mean adult height, leaf area, seed mass, and wood density for eight lowland and highland forest landscapes. To do so, we combine data of eight fossil pollen records with functional traits and proxies for climate (temperature, precipitation, and El Niño frequency) and disturbances (fire and general disturbances). We found that temperature and disturbances were the most important drivers of changes in functional composition. Increased water availability (high precipitation and low El Niño frequency) generally led to more acquisitive trait composition (large leaves and soft wood). In lowland forests, warmer climates decreased community-mean height probably because of increased water stress, whereas in highland forests warmer climates increased height probably because of upslope migration of taller species. Disturbance increased the abundance of acquisitive, disturbance-adapted taxa with small seeds for quick colonization of disturbed sites, large leaves for light capture, and soft wood to attain fast height growth. Fire had weak effects on lowland forests but led to more stress-adapted taxa that are tall with fast life cycles and small seeds that can quickly colonize burned sites. Site-specific analyses were largely in line with cross-site analyses, except for varying site-level effects of El Niño frequency and fire activity, possibly because regional patterns in El Niño are not a good predictor of local changes, and charcoal abundances do not reflect fire intensity or severity. With future global changes, tropical Amazonian and Andean forests may transition toward shorter, drought- and disturbance-adapted forests in the lowlands but taller forests in the highlands., (© 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Colorado River streamflow has decreased 19% since 2000. Spring (March‐April‐May) weather strongly influences Upper Colorado River streamflow because it controls not only water input but also when snow melts and how much energy is available for evaporation when soils are wettest. Since 2000, spring precipitation decreased by 14% on average across 26 unregulated headwater basins, but this decrease did not fully account for the reduced streamflow. In drier springs, increases in energy from reduced cloud cover, and lowered surface albedo from earlier snow disappearance, coincided with potential evapotranspiration (PET) increases of up to 10%. Combining spring precipitation decreases with PET increases accounted for 67% of the variance in post‐2000 streamflow deficits. Streamflow deficits were most substantial in lower elevation basins (<2,950 m), where snowmelt occurred earliest, and precipitation declines were largest. Refining seasonal spring precipitation forecasts is imperative for future water availability predictions in this snow‐dominated water resource region. Plain Language Summary: With over 40 million people dependent on the Colorado River, the 19% drop in streamflow since 2000 has been worrying, especially because its cause is not well understood. To explain this drop, we focused on changes to spring weather in snow‐dominated basins, which contribute over 80% of the river's water. We found spring precipitation decreases since 2000 not only reduced streamflow but also correlated with higher temperatures and evaporation rates and less cloudiness. These impacts combined to intensify streamflow declines in basins with earlier snowmelt. The importance of spring precipitation to Colorado River streamflow underscores the need to improve seasonal precipitation forecasts. Such improvements would enhance water availability predictions for the one billion people worldwide reliant on snow for water resources. Key Points: Significant decreases in spring precipitation have been observed since 2000 in headwater basins of the Upper ColoradoDrier springs have corresponded with greater spring potential evapotranspiration (PET)Spring precipitation decreases and PET increases explain much of the variability in observed streamflow deficits in these headwater basins [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice sheet feedbacks are underrepresented in model assessments of climate sensitivity and their magnitudes are still poorly constrained. We combine a recently published record of Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) with existing reconstructions of temperature, atmospheric composition, and sea level to estimate both the magnitude and timescale of the ice sheet‐albedo feedback since the Last Glacial Maximum. This facilitates the first opportunity to quantify this feedback over the most recent deglaciation using a proxy data‐driven approach. We find the ice sheet‐albedo feedback to be amplifying, increasing the total climate feedback parameter by 42% and reaching an equilibrium magnitude of 0.55 Wm−2K−1, with a 66% confidence interval of 0.45–0.63 Wm−2K−1. The timescale to equilibrium is estimated as 3.6 ka (66% confidence: 1.9–5.5 ka). These results provide new evidence for the timescale and magnitude of the amplifying ice sheet‐albedo feedback that will drive anthropogenic warming for millennia to come. Plain Language Summary: During a deglacial transition, ice sheets melt and retreat, decreasing the reflectivity of the land surface and increasing the surface temperature, leading to further melting. It is agreed that this feedback amplifies global warming on millennial timescales, but the exact magnitude and timescale are still very uncertain. This is important because the stronger the feedback, the more sensitive Earth's climate is to carbon dioxide on long timescales. We use proxy data records of the past 25,000 years to quantify the ice sheet‐albedo feedback since the Last Glacial Maximum and estimate the time taken for the feedback to reach equilibrium and stabilize. We find that the ice sheet‐albedo feedback strongly amplifies warming over thousands of years, increasing our understanding of how human activity today will continue to influence our climate for generations into the future. Key Points: Novel proxy data‐driven assessment of the ice sheet‐albedo feedback for the last deglaciation is presentedIce sheet‐albedo feedback is amplifying during a deglacial transition with a best estimate of 0.55 Wm−2K−1 (0.45–0.63 Wm−2K−1)Ice sheet‐albedo feedback reaches equilibrium after approximately 3.6 ka (1.9–5.5 ka) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Noise in Holocene paleoclimate reconstructions can hamper the detection of centennial to millennial climate variations and diagnoses of the dynamics involved. This paper uses multiple ensembles of reconstructions to separate signal and noise and determine what, if any, centennial to millennial variations influenced North America during the past 7000 years. To do so, ensembles of temperature and moisture reconstructions were compared across four different spatial scales: multi-continent, regional, sub-regional, and local. At each scale, two independent multi-record ensembles were compared to detect any centennial to millennial departures from the long Holocene trends, which correlate more than expected from random patterns. In all cases, the potential centennial to millennial variations had small magnitudes. However, at least two patterns of centennial to millennial variability appear evident. First, large-scale variations included a prominent Mid-Holocene anomaly from 5600–5000 yr BP that increased mean effective moisture and produced temperature anomalies of different signs in different regions. The changes shifted the north–south temperature gradient in mid-latitude North America with a pattern similar to that of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Second, correlated multi-century (∼ 350 years) variations produce a distinct spectral signature in temperature and hydroclimate records along the western Atlantic margin. Both patterns differ from random variations, but they express distinct spatiotemporal characteristics consistent with separate controlling dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over recent decades, the southeastern United States (Southeast) has become increasingly well represented by the terrestrial climate proxy record. However, while the paleo proxy records capture the region's hydroclimatic history over the last several centuries, the understanding of near surface air temperature variability is confined to the comparatively shorter observational period (1895‐present). Here, we detail the application of blue intensity (BI) methods on a network of tree‐ring collections and examine their utility for producing robust paleotemperature estimates. Results indicate that maximum latewood BI (LWBI) chronologies exhibit positive and temporally stable correlations (r = 0.28–0.54, p < 0.01) with summer maximum temperatures. As such, we use a network of LWBI chronologies to reconstruct August‐September average maximum temperatures for the Southeast spanning the period 1760–2010 CE. Our work demonstrates the utility of applying novel dendrochronological techniques to improve the understanding of the multi‐centennial temperature history of the Southeast. Plain Language Summary: Tree‐ring data are important sources of paleoclimate information, which allow for the longer‐term evaluation of modern climate values and trends. Compared to much of North America, the Southeastern United States (Southeast) contains substantially fewer paleoclimate records from tree rings, and no estimates of past temperature variability which extend before the observational period. Employing a recently developed technique, which uses light reflectance properties of wood to obtain a representative metric of tree‐ring density, we develop a network of temperature‐sensitive tree‐ring records across the Southeast. These records enable us to reconstruct late summer maximum temperatures across the region spanning the period 1760–2023 CE. As few ground‐based, pre‐instrumental temperature records previously existed for this region, our reconstruction allows for an improved understanding of the region's multi‐centennial climatic history. Key Points: Maximum latewood blue intensity from tree rings can effectively be used to develop paleotemperature estimates for the southeastern USThe fidelity of tree‐ring density parameters for paleoclimate reconstruction are influenced by disturbance regimes and microsite conditionsCompared to the last 260 years, regional 20th‐century maximum late summer temperatures are not characterized by unprecedented positive trend [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tree rings are the most widely‐used proxy records for reconstructing Common Era temperatures. Tree‐ring records correlate strongly with temperature on an interannual basis, but studies have found discrepancies between tree rings and climate models on longer timescales, indicating that low‐frequency noise could be prevalent in these archives. Using a large network of temperature‐sensitive tree‐ring records, we partition timeseries variance into a common (i.e., "signal") and non‐climatic (i.e., "noise") component using a frequency‐resolved signal‐to‐noise ratio (SNR) analysis. We find that the availability of stored resources from prior years (i.e., biological "memory") dampens the climate signal at high‐frequencies, and that independent noise reduces the SNR on long timescales. We also find that well‐replicated, millennial‐length records had the strongest common signal across centuries. Our work suggests that low‐frequency noise models are appropriate for use in pseudoproxy experiments, and speaks to the continued value of high‐quality data development as a top priority in dendroclimatology. Plain Language Summary: Tree rings contain valuable information about past variations in Earth's climate, but this information can be obscured by biological influences over tree‐ring formation, particularly when slow changes in climate are integrated with long biological trends. In this study, we measured the strength of the common signal and random noise in a network of tree‐ring records from across the Northern Hemisphere. We find that the emergence of non‐climatic trends decreases the similarity of nearby tree‐ring records to each other on long timescales. Key Points: Temperature‐sensitive tree‐ring records had the highest signal‐to‐noise ratios on an interannual basisNoise showed a positive relationship with timescale indicating presence of independent trends over long time periodsSignal‐to‐noise ratios were highest in tree‐ring density records and in records comprised of a greater number of individual trees [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we present a new eastern Baltic Chironomidae training set (TS) containing 35 sites that was collected and merged with neighbouring published Finnish (82 lakes) and northern part of the Polish (nine lakes) TSs. Chironomidae, non‐biting midges, are known to be strongly responsive to the July air temperature and are widely used to infer palaeotemperature. Several modern analogue‐based TSs necessary for calibrating the relationships between mean July air temperature (MJAT) and chironomids are available for Europe. However, none of these is representative of the transitional climate typical for eastern Baltic (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania). The Finno–Baltic–Polish TS contains 121 sites and covers a geographically continuous 70–50°N latitudinal and 7 °C (12.1–19.2 °C) MJAT gradient. Canonical correspondence analysis revealed that, among the tested environmental variables (pH, water depth, dissolved oxygen, MJAT), the MJAT explains the highest amount of variation, both for the eastern Baltic separately and the Finno–Baltic–Polish TSs. The weighted averaging–partial least squares‐based cross‐validation test reveals that the Finno–Baltic–Polish TS has a low root mean square error of prediction (0.7 °C) confirming the high reliability of the TS. The temperature optima of the taxa included in the new Finno–Baltic–Polish TS and widely used Swiss–Norwegian TS were examined. The observed dissimilarities can be attributed to the differences in the temperature ranges represented by the TS, the taxonomic identification level, the general cosmopolitan taxa distribution patterns and the influence of TS‐specific geographic position, climatic or environmental conditions. The new Finno–Baltic–Polish TS adds to the knowledge on the modern distribution of Chironomidae taxa and widens the geographical area of reliable Chironomid‐based MJAT reconstructions into the eastern European lowland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ratios of glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGT), which are membrane lipids of bacteria and archaea, are at the base of several paleoenvironmental proxies. They are frequently applied to soils as well as lake‐ and marine sediments to generate records of past temperature and soil pH. To derive meaningful environmental information from these reconstructions, high analytical reproducibility is required. Based on submitted results by 39 laboratories from across the world, which employ a diverse range of analytical and quantification methods, we explored the reproducibility of brGDGT‐based proxies (MBT′5ME, IR, and #ringstetra) measured on four soil samples and four soil lipid extracts. Correct identification and integration of 5‐ and 6‐methyl brGDGTs is a prerequisite for the robust calculation of proxy values, but this can be challenging as indicated by the large inter‐interlaboratory variation. The exclusion of statistical outliers improves the reproducibility, where the remaining uncertainty translates into a temperature offset from median proxy values of 0.3–0.9°C and a pH offset of 0.05–0.3. There is no apparent systematic impact of the extraction method and sample preparation steps on the brGDGT ratios. Although reported GDGT concentrations are generally consistent within laboratories, they vary greatly between laboratories. This large variability in brGDGT quantification may relate to variations in ionization efficiency or specific mass spectrometer settings possibly impacting the response of brGDGTs masses relative to that of the internal standard used. While ratio values of GDGT are generally comparable, quantities can currently not be compared between laboratories. Key Points: 39 laboratories participated in a round robin to determine the reproducibility of glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGT) proxy values and quantitiesPeak selection impacts the ratio values and there is no apparent systematic impact of the extraction method and sample preparation stepsQuantification of GDGTs remains a problem, and comparison of GDGT concentrations between laboratories requires further method development [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the early Holocene to mid-Holocene, about 11 500 to 5500 years ago, lakes expanded across the Sahel and Sahara in response to enhanced summer monsoon precipitation. To investigate the effect of these lakes on the West African summer monsoon, previous simulation studies prescribed mid-Holocene lakes from reconstructions. By prescribing mid-Holocene lakes, however, the terrestrial water balance is inconsistent with the size of the lakes. In order to close the terrestrial water cycle, we construct a dynamic endorheic lake (DEL) model and implement it into the atmosphere–land model ICON-JSBACH4. For the first time, this allows us to investigate the dynamic interaction between climate, lakes, and vegetation across northern Africa. Additionally, we investigate the effect of lake depth changes on mid-Holocene precipitation, a neglected aspect in previous simulation studies. A pre-industrial control simulation shows that the DEL model realistically simulates the lake extent across northern Africa. Only in the Ahnet and Chotts basins is the lake area slightly overestimated, which is likely related to the coarse resolution of the simulations. The mid-Holocene simulations reveal that both the lake expansion and the vegetation expansion cause a precipitation increase over northern Africa. The sum of these individual contributions to the precipitation is, however, larger than the combined effect that is generated when lake and vegetation dynamics interact. Thus, the lake–vegetation interaction causes a relative drying response across the entire Sahel. The main reason for this drying response is that the simulated vegetation expansion cools the land surface more strongly than the lake expansion, which is dominated by the expansion of Lake Chad. Accordingly, the surface temperature increases over the region of Lake Chad and causes local changes in the meridional surface-temperature gradient. These changes in the meridional surface-temperature gradient are associated with reduced inland moisture transport from the tropical Atlantic into the Sahel, which causes a drying response in the Sahel. An idealized mid-Holocene experiment shows that a similar drying response is induced when the depth of Lake Chad is decreased by about 1–5 m , without changing the horizontal lake area. By reducing the depth of Lake Chad, the heat storage capacity of the lake decreases, and the lake warms faster during the summer months. Thus, in the ICON-JSBACH4 model, the lake depth significantly influences the simulated surface temperature and the simulated meridional surface-temperature gradient between the simulated lakes and vegetation, thereby affecting mid-Holocene precipitation over northern Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last four decades, organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts have shown high potential as tracers of past sea-surface conditions during the Quaternary. These microfossils relate to the pelagic productivity of both phototrophic and heterotrophic protist organisms and are recovered in high numbers in almost all marine environment settings from the nearshore and estuarine systems to the distal continental margin. In polar environments, where other conventional proxies are rare or absent, dinoflagellate cysts showed a relatively high diversity of species and a close relationship with sea-ice cover duration, winter and summer temperature, and salinity, enabling quantitative reconstructions of several oceanic variables over time. From the temperate to the tropical latitudes of the Atlantic Ocean, their modern distribution highlights a response to primary productivity and seasonal contrasts in surface temperature. They also have proven that they could be used as tracers of eutrophication in stratified systems and can also highlight human impact on their distribution. In this paper, we present an overview of dinoflagellate cysts as ecological tracers in recent and past sediments of the Atlantic Ocean, from the Arctic to the Antarctic. We provide examples of their use as proxies in paleoclimatic-palaeoceanographic studies at glacial to interglacial time scales, with emphasis on the last ice age to recent (last 25 kyr), the northern North Atlantic and western-eastern tropic North Atlantic. We also discuss their potential as tracers of anthropogenic stress in coastal environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The surficial geology of the central Jornada del Muerto is composed of 12 stratigraphic units identified from deep backhoe trenches. Their age is provided by 54 optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dates, from 173.1 to 0.10 ka. Upper piedmont-slope alluvium from both the Caballo and San Andres Mountains is >65.6 ka and 49.5 to 23.4 ka; lower piedmont alluvium is >66.2 to >48.5 ka and may be middle Pleistocene. Piedmont alluvium was deposited during the wet climate of the late (and perhaps middle) Pleistocene. Jornada Draw alluvium (50--45 ka) accumulated within the same period as the upper piedmont-slope alluvium. Piedmont alluvium is commonly mantled by cover sediment (14.9--5.0 ka) and the eolian Jornada sand sheet (10.3--1.38 ka). Radioisotope (K2O, U, Th) signatures and particle size indicate that the eolian sand sheet is derived from local Caballo Mountains upper piedmont alluvium. The sand sheet formed during the comparatively dry climate of the Holocene. The rate of eolian sand deposition increased during the arid middle Holocene, likely due to a greater supply of sand. All units have high percentages of silt that peaked 23 ka, similar to the last glacial maximum loess in the Central Plains and Midwest. A cumulic paleosol A horizon formed on the sand sheet within the period A.D. 1400 to 1550 during the wetter and cooler conditions of the Little Ice Age, correlating with a similar soil A horizon on other sand sheets in the region. By A.D. 1860, renewed availability of sand and eolian activity across the Jornada valley produced a thin cover sand and, where mesquite shrubs were present, coppice dunes. The historic eolian activity may be related to livestock grazing pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-resolution paleoclimate records from tropical continental settings are greatly needed to advance understanding of global climate dynamics. The International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) project DeepCHALLA recovered a 214.8 m long sediment sequence from Lake Chala, a deep and permanently stratified (meromictic) crater lake in eastern equatorial Africa, covering the past ca. 250 000 years (250 kyr) of continuous lacustrine deposition since the earliest phase of lake-basin development. Lipid biomarker analyses on the sediments of Lake Chala can provide quantitative records of past variation in temperature and moisture balance from this poorly documented region. However, the degree to which climate proxies derived from aquatically produced biomarkers are affected by aspects of lake developmental history is rarely considered, even though it may critically influence their ability to consistently register a particular climate variable through time. Modern-system studies of Lake Chala revealed crucial information about the mechanisms underpinning relationships between proxies based on isoprenoid (iso-) and branched (br-) glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) and the targeted climate variables, but the persistence of these relationships in the past remains unclear. Here we assess the reliability of long-term climate signals registered in the sediments of Lake Chala by comparing downcore variations in GDGT distributions with major phases in lake-system evolution as reflected by independent proxies of lake depth, mixing regime and nutrient dynamics: seismic reflection data, lithology and fossil diatom assemblages. Together, these records suggest that during early lake history (before ca. 180–200 ka) the distinct mixing-related depth zones with which specific GDGT producers are associated in the modern-day lake were not yet formed, likely due to more open lake hydrology and absence of chemical water-column stratification. Consequently absolute GDGT concentrations dating to this period are relatively low, proxies sensitive to water-column stratification (e.g., branched versus isoprenoid tetraether (BIT) index) display highly irregular temporal variability, and correlations between proxies are dissimilar to expectations based on modern-system understanding. A sequence of lake-system changes between ca. 180–200 and ca. 80 ka first established and then strengthened the chemical density gradient, promoting meromictic conditions despite the overall decrease in lake depth due to the basin gradually being filled up with sediments. From ca. 180 ka onward some GDGTs and derived proxies (e.g., crenarchaeol concentration, BIT index and Ipage2878R6Me) display strong ∼ 23 kyr periodicity, likely reflecting the predominantly precession-driven insolation forcing of Quaternary climate variability in low-latitude regions. Our results suggest that GDGT-based temperature and moisture-balance proxies in Lake Chala sediments reflect the climate history of eastern equatorial Africa from at least ca. 160 ka onwards, i.e., covering the complete last glacial–interglacial cycle and the penultimate glacial maximum. This work confirms the potential of lacustrine GDGTs for elucidating the climate history of tropical regions at Quaternary timescales, provided they are applied to suitably high-quality sediment archives. Additionally, their interpretation should incorporate a broader understanding of the extent to which lake-system evolution limits the extrapolation back in time of proxy-climate relationships established in the modern system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has caused significant climate changes over the past 90 000 years. Prior work has hypothesized that these millennial-scale climate variations effected past and contemporary biodiversity, but the effects are understudied. Moreover, few biogeographic models have accounted for uncertainties in palaeoclimatic simulations of millennial-scale variability. We examine whether refuges from millennial-scale climate oscillations have left detectable legacies in the patterns of contemporary species richness in eastern North America. We analyse 13 palaeoclimate estimates from climate simulations and proxy-based reconstructions as predictors for the contemporary richness of amphibians, passerine birds, mammals, reptiles and trees. Results suggest that past climate changes owing to AMOC variations have left weak but detectable imprints on the contemporary richness of mammals and trees. High temperature stability, precipitation increase, and an apparent climate fulcrum in the southeastern United States across millennial-scale climate oscillations aligns with high biodiversity in the region. These findings support the hypothesis that the southeastern United States may have acted as a biodiversity refuge. However, for some taxa, the strength and direction of palaeoclimate-richness relationships varies among different palaeoclimate estimates, pointing to the importance of palaeoclimatic ensembles and the need for caution when basing biogeographic interpretations on individual palaeoclimate simulations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many continental paleoclimate archives originate from wetland sedimentary sequences. While several studies have investigated biomarkers derived from peat-generating vegetation typical of temperate/boreal bogs (e.g., Sphagnum), only scant information is available on emergent plants predominant in temperate/subtropical coastal marshlands, peri-lacustrine and fen environments. Here, we address this gap, focusing on two wetlands in the Mediterranean (Nisí fen and Tenaghi Philippon, Greece). We examined the concentration, homologue distribution, and hydrogen stable isotopic composition (δ[sup 2]H) of leaf wax n-alkanes in 13 fen plant species, their surrounding soil, and surface water during the wet growing season (spring) and the declining water table period (summer). Our findings indicate that local graminoid species primarily contribute to the soil n-alkane signal, with a lesser influence from forbs, likely owing to differences in morphology and vegetation structure. The δ[sup 2]H values of surface and soil water align with local average annual precipitation δ[sup 2]H, reflecting winter-spring precipitation. Consistently, the average δ[sup 2]H of local surface, soil, and lower stem water showed negligible evaporative enrichment, confirming minimal [sup 2]H-fractionation during water uptake. We find that δ[sup 2]H values of source water for wax compound synthesis in local fen plants accurately mirror local annual precipitation. Furthermore, despite differences between leaves and lower stems in n-alkane production rates, their δ[sup 2]H values exhibit remarkable similarity, indicating a shared metabolic substrate, likely originating in leaves. Our net [sup 2]H-fractionation values (i.e., precipitation to leaf n-alkanes) align with those in Chinese highlands and other similar environments, suggesting consistency across diverse climatic zones. Notably, our data reveal a seasonal decrease in the carbon preference index (CPI) in plant samples, indicating wax lipid synthesis changes associated with increased aridity. Additionally, we introduce a new parity isotopic difference index (PID) based on the consistent δ[sup 2]H difference between odd and even n-alkane homologues. The PID demonstrates a strong anticorrelation with plant CPI, suggesting a potential avenue to trace long-term aridity shifts through δ[sup 2]H analysis of odd and even n-alkane homologues in sedimentary archives. While further development of the PID is necessary for broad application, these findings highlight the intricate interplay between plant physiology, environmental parameters, and sedimentary n-alkanes in unravelling past climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Only a few palaeo-records extend beyond the Holocene in Yakutia, eastern Siberia, since most of the lakes in the region are of Holocene thermokarst origin. Thus, we have a poor understanding of the long-term interactions between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and their response to climate change. The Lake Khamra region in southwestern Yakutia is of particular interest because it is in the transition zones from discontinuous to sporadic permafrost and from summergreen to evergreen boreal forests. Our multiproxy study of Lake Khamra sediments reaching back to the Last Glacial Maximum 21 cal ka BP, includes analyses of organic carbon, nitrogen, XRF-derived elements, sedimentary ancient DNA amplicon sequencing of aquatic and terrestrial plants and diatoms, as well as classical counting of pollen and non-pollen palynomorphs (NPP). The palaeogenetic approach revealed 45 diatom, 191 terrestrial plant, and 65 aquatic macrophyte taxa. Pollen analyses identified 34 pollen taxa and 28 NPP taxa. The inferred terrestrial ecosystem of the Last Glacial comprises tundra vegetation dominated by forbs and grasses, likely inhabited by megaherbivores. By 18.4 cal ka BP a lake had developed with a high abundance of macrophytes and dominant fragilarioid diatoms, while shrubs expanded around the lake. In the Bolling-Allerod at 14.7 cal ka BP both the terrestrial and aquatic systems reflect climate amelioration, alongside lake water-level rise and woodland establishment, which was curbed by the Younger Dryas cooling. In the Early Holocene warmer and wetter climate led to taiga development and lake waterlevel rise, reflected by diatom composition turnover from only epiphytic to planktonic diatoms. In the Mid-Holocene the lake water level decreased at ca. 8.2 cal ka BP and increased again at ca. 6.5 cal ka BP. At the same time mixed evergreen-summergreen forest expanded. In the Late Holocene, at ca. 4 cal ka BP, vegetation cover similar to modern conditions established. This study reveals the long-term shifts in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and a comprehensive understanding of lake development and catchment history of the Lake Khamra region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative reconstructions of past continental climates are vital for understanding contemporary and past climate change. Branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) are unique bacterial lipids that have been proposed as universal paleothermometers due to their correlation with temperature in modern settings. Thus, brGDGTs may serve as a crucial paleotemperature proxy for understanding past climate variations and improving regional climate projections, especially in critical but under constrained regions. That said, complications can arise in their application due to varying source contributions (e.g., soils vs. peats vs. lacustrine). As such, this study investigates brGDGT distributions in Chilean lake surface sediments and corresponding watershed soils to determine the source of brGDGTs to lake sediments. Global datasets of brGDGTs in lake sediments and soils were additionally compiled for comparison. Distinct brGDGT distributions in Chilean lakes and soils indicate minimal bias from soil inputs to the lacustrine sediments as well as in situ lacustrine production of brGDGTs, which supports the use of brGDGTs in lake sediments as reliable paleotemperature proxies in the region. The ΣIIIa/ΣIIa ratio, initially promising as a brGDGT source indicator in marine settings, shows global complexities in lacustrine settings, challenging the establishment of universal thresholds for source apportionment. That said, we show that the ratio can be successfully applied in Chilean lake surface sediments. Direct comparisons with watershed soils and further research are crucial for discerning brGDGT sources in lake sediments and improving paleotemperature reconstructions on regional and global scales moving forward. Overall, this study contributes valuable insights into brGDGT variability, essential for accurate paleoreconstructions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) are bacterial lipids that have been widely used as environmental proxies in continental paleorecords. Another group of related lipids, branched glycerol monoalkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGMGTs), has recently been proposed as a potential paleotemperature proxy. Nevertheless, the sources and environmental dependencies of both brGDGTs and brGMGTs along the river–sea continuum are still poorly understood, complicating their application as paleoenvironmental proxies in some aquatic settings. In this study, the sources of brGDGTs and brGMGTs and the potential factors controlling their distributions are explored across the Seine River basin (NW France), which encompasses the freshwater-to-seawater continuum. BrGDGTs and brGMGTs were analyzed in soils, suspended particulate matter (SPM), and sediments (n=237) collected along the land–sea continuum of the Seine basin. Both types of compounds (i.e., brGDGTs and brGMGTs) are shown to be produced in situ, in freshwater and saltwater, based on their high concentrations and distinct distributions in aquatic settings (SPM and sediments) vs. soils. Redundancy analysis further shows that both salinity and nitrogen dominantly control the brGDGT distributions. Furthermore, the relative abundance of 6-methyl vs. that of 5-methyl brGDGTs (the IR 6Me ratio), the total nitrogen (TN), the δ15 N, and the chlorophyll a concentration co-vary in a specific geographical zone with low salinity, suggesting that 6-methyl brGDGTs are preferentially produced under low-salinity and high-productivity conditions. In contrast to brGDGTs, the brGMGT distribution appears to be primarily regulated by salinity, with a distinct influence on the individual homologues. Salinity is positively correlated with homologues H1020a and H1020b and negatively correlated with compounds H1020c and H1034b in SPM. This suggests that bacteria living in freshwater preferentially produce compounds H1020c and H1034b, whereas bacteria that primarily grow in saltwater appear to be predominantly responsible for the production of homologues H1020a and H1020b. Based on the abundance ratio of the freshwater-derived compounds (H1020c and H1034b) vs. their saltwater-derived homologues (H1020a and H1020b), a novel proxy, the Riverine IndeX (RIX), is proposed to trace riverine organic matter inputs, with high values (>0.5) indicating a higher riverine contribution. We successfully applied RIX to the Godavari River basin (India) and a paleorecord across the upper Paleocene and lower Eocene from the Arctic Coring Expedition at Lomonosov Ridge, showing its potential applicability to both modern samples and paleorecords. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulating the West African monsoon (WAM) system using numerical weather and climate models suffers from large uncertainties, which are difficult to assess due to nonlinear interactions between different components of the WAM. Here we present a fundamentally new approach to the problem by approximating the behavior of a numerical model – here the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model – through a statistical surrogate model based on universal kriging, a general form of Gaussian process regression, which allows for a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis. The main steps of our analysis are as follows: (i) identify the most important uncertain model parameters and their probability density functions, for which we employ a new strategy dealing with non-uniformity in the kriging process. (ii) Define quantities of interest (QoIs) that represent general meteorological fields, such as temperature, pressure, cloud cover and precipitation, as well as the prominent WAM features, namely the tropical easterly jet, African easterly jet, Saharan heat low (SHL) and intertropical discontinuity. (iii) Apply a sampling strategy with regard to the kriging method to identify model parameter combinations which are used for numerical modeling experiments. (iv) Conduct ICON model runs for identified model parameter combinations over a nested limited-area domain from 28° W to 34° E and from 10° S to 34° N. The simulations are run for August in 4 different years (2016 to 2019) to capture the peak northward penetration of rainfall into West Africa, and QoIs are computed based on the mean response over the whole month in all years. (v) Quantify sensitivity of QoIs to uncertain model parameters in an integrated and a local analysis. The results show that simple isolated relationships between single model parameters and WAM QoIs rarely exist. Changing individual parameters affects multiple QoIs simultaneously, reflecting the physical links between them and the complexity of the WAM system. The entrainment rate in the convection scheme and the terminal fall velocity of ice particles show the greatest effects on the QoIs. Larger values of these two parameters reduce cloud cover and precipitation and intensify the SHL. The entrainment rate primarily affects 2 m temperature and 2 m dew point temperature and causes latitudinal shifts, whereas the terminal fall velocity of ice mostly affects cloud cover. Furthermore, the parameter that controls the evaporative soil surface has a major effect on 2 m temperature, 2 m dew point temperature and cloud cover. The results highlight the usefulness of surrogate models for the analysis of model uncertainty and open up new opportunities to better constrain model parameters through a comparison of the model output with selected observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Huangling region is located in the central part of the Chinese Loess Plateau, which is sensitive to climate change due to the transitional characteristics of the natural environmental zone in which it is located. In this study, we utilized a spore–pollen analysis of the Tianjiahe (TJH) profile in Huangling to apply the pollen–climate factor conversion function method. This approach allowed us to quantitatively reconstruct the paleotemperature and paleoprecipitation of the Huangling area during the Middle and Late Holocene. The results show that the Huangling area experienced four climatic stages during the Middle and Late Holocene, including mild and slightly humid → warm and humid → warm and slightly humid → warm and humid. Except for the period of 5.3–4.72 kaBP, during which the climate was relatively cool and dry compared to the present, the climate in the remaining period (4.72–0.03 kaBP) was warmer and more humid than that of the present. The above results provide an important insight for further exploring the mechanism of paleoclimate change and predicting future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the latest decade was warmer than any multi-century period over the past 125,000 years. This statement rests on a comparison of modern instrumental measurements against the course of past temperatures reconstructed from natural proxy archives, such as lake and marine sediments, and peat bogs. Here, we evaluate this comparison with a focus on the hundreds of proxy records developed by paleoclimatologists across the globe to reconstruct climate variability over the Holocene (12,000 years) and preceded by the Last Glacial Period (125,000 years). Although the existing proxy data provide a unique opportunity to reconstruct low-frequency climate variability on centennial timescales, they lack temporal resolution and dating precision for contextualizing the most recent temperature extremes. While the IPCC's conclusion on the uniqueness of latest-decade warming is thus not supported by comparison with these smoothed paleotemperatures, it is still likely correct as ice core-derived forcing timeseries show that greenhouse gases were not elevated during any pre-instrumental period of the Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Millennial-scale climate variations during the last glacial period, such as Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) cycles and Heinrich events, have been extensively studied using ice core and marine proxy records. However, there is a limited understanding of the magnitude of these temperature fluctuations in continental regions, and questions remain about the seasonal signal of these climate events. This study presents a 60 000-year-long temperature reconstruction based on branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) extracted from lake sediments from the Eifel Volcanic Field, Germany. brGDGTs are bacterial membrane-spanning lipids that are known to have a strong relationship with temperature, making them suitable for temperature reconstructions. We test several temperature calibration models on modern samples taken from soils and multiple maar lakes. We find a negative bias in brGDGT-based temperature estimates associated with water depth and anoxic conditions that can be corrected for by accounting for a brGDGT isomer that is only produced in anoxic conditions. The corrected temperature reconstruction correlates with proxy and climate model estimates of temperature spanning the same time period, validating the calibration approach we selected. However, millennial-scale variability is significantly dampened in the brGDGT record, and in contrast to other Northern Hemisphere climate records, during several Heinrich stadials, temperatures actually increase. We demonstrate that these apparent discrepancies can be explained by the unique seasonal response of the brGDGT paleothermometer to temperatures of months above freezing (TMAF). Our data support the view that warm-season temperatures in Europe varied minimally during the last glacial period and that abrupt millennial-scale events were defined by colder, longer winters. Our continuous high-resolution temperature reconstruction provides important information about the magnitude of seasonal climate variability during the last glacial period that can be used to test climate models and inform studies of paleoecological change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought has affected much of the western United States since about the year 2000, including the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Using a time series of UCRB streamflow derived from a tree‐ring based reconstruction of UCRB streamflow for the years 1 CE through 1905 CE, together with naturalized UCRB streamflow values for 1906 CE through 2021 CE, we identify 51 drought events, including the 2000–2021 drought. Although the recent 2000–2021 drought has been relatively severe, it is not the most severe of the UCRB drought events we identified. Results also indicate that natural variability combined with projected climate warming can result in UCRB drought events that are more severe than any drought since 1 CE. Plain Language Summary: A long and severe drought has affected much of the western United States since about the year 2000 CE, including the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Comparing this drought to past UCRB droughts (during 1 CE through 2021 CE), we find that the 2000–2021 drought is not the most severe UCRB drought. The results also suggest that natural variability combined with projected climate warming could result in UCRB drought events that are more severe than any drought since 1 CE. Key Points: We identify 51 drought events for the years 1 CE through 2021 CE for the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB)Twelve of the 51 UCRB droughts we identify were more severe than the 2000–2021 droughtNatural variability and/or a 1°C temperature increase can trigger UCRB droughts that are more severe than the 2000–2021 drought [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paleoclimatological field reconstructions are valuable for understanding hydroclimatic variability. While being similarly impactful on societies as temperature variability, hydroclimatic variability has still remained less in focus. However, reconstructing globally complete fields of climate variables lacks adequate proxy data from tropical regions like South America, limiting our understanding of past hydroclimatic changes in these areas. This study addresses this gap using low resolution climate archives, including speleothems, previously omitted from reconstructions. Speleothems record climate variations on decadal to centennial time scales and provide a rich dataset for the otherwise proxy data scarce region of tropical South America. By employing a multi-time scale Paleoclimate Data Assimilation approach, we synthesize climate proxy records and climate model simulations, capable of simulating water isotopologues in the atmosphere, to reconstruct 2000 years of South American climate. This includes surface air temperature, precipitation amount, drought index, isotopic composition of precipitation amount, and the intensity of the South American Summer Monsoon. The reconstruction reveals anomalous climate periods: a wetter and colder phase during the Little Ice Age (1500–1850 CE) and a drier, warmer period corresponding to the early Medieval Climate Anomaly (600–900 CE). However, these patterns are not uniform across the continent, with exceptions in northeastern Brazil and the Southern Cone, indicating regional variability. The anomalies are more pronounced than in previous reconstructions, but align with local proxy record studies, thus highlighting the importance of including speleothem proxies. The multi-timescale approach is essential for reconstructing multi-decadal and centennial climate variability. Despite methodological uncertainties regarding climate model biases and proxy record interpretations, this study marks a crucial first step in incorporating speleothems into climate field reconstructions, potentially enhancing insights into past hydroclimatic variability and hydroclimate projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

West Siberian mires covering more than 50% of area in the subarctic are still poorly investigated despite their thick peat sediments suitable for paleogeographic research of past long-term landscape and climatic changes. In this research, a combination of paleoecological methods were used, including the analysis of pollen, spores, diatoms, NPPs, and macrofossils, the measurement of peat humification, and quantitative paleoclimate reconstruction. This multi-proxy approach was applied to study a palsa bog (frost peat heave mound) located in the north of western Siberia on the border of the northern taiga and forest–tundra (65°18′56″ N, 72°52′27″ E). Chronology is based on 21 radiocarbon dates, which were calibrated in CLAM. Studies have shown that sediments of palsa bog Nadym of a 1050 cm thickness were formed both in the Holocene and earlier periods of the Quaternary. Radiocarbon dating worked well for peat sequences (610 cm thick), but failed for underlying lacustrine and mineral sediments (440 cm thick). Numerous remains of salt-water diatoms and exotic Neogene pollen were found in the lacustrine sediments (650–850 cm). The oldest sediments (850–1050 cm) have signs of secondary epicryogenic diagenesis in the form of cryogenic iron-enriched granules. Both lacustrine and bottom sediments contain abundant coniferous pollen. At the same time, spore–pollen complexes dated to the Last Glacial Age were not found in low sediments because of failed dates. To explain this, the authors turn to the hypothesis of glyacioisostatic compensation, according to which the study area was uplifted during the Last Glacial Age and the ancient deposits underwent secondary diagenesis in subaerial conditions. Holocene lacustrine sedimentation began to form about 9800 cal. a BP. These lacustrine sediments turned out to be enriched in redeposited Neogene pollen and diatoms. It was interpreted as an influence of excess humid climate in combination with geological subsidence of landscape in the study area during the Early Holocene. This caused lake formation and introduction of exotic microfossils via surface run-off from higher-relief areas in the catchment. Syngenetic sedimentation in the Nadym section is associated only with peat-mire deposits covering the last 8400 cal. a BP. For this time, the dynamic of vegetation cover and quantitative changes in paleoclimate were reconstructed using spore–pollen, macrofossil, humus, and NPP data as well as the information–statistical method of V.A. Klimanov. The spore–pollen analysis revealed four main phases in the development of vegetation cover: 1. Spruce–birch forests with open meadows and lakes (8400–7600 cal. a BP); 2. Dominance of spruce forests and thawed eutrophic (minerotrophic) mires (7600 to 6500 cal. a BP); 3. Coniferous–birch forests and thawed mesotrophic mires (6500 to 4500 cal. a BP); 4. Birch–pine forests and oligotrophic (ombrotrophic) bogs with permafrost mounds—palsa bogs (approx. the last 4500 years). Quantitative reconstructions of paleoclimate based on pollen data show that in most cases the periods of a sharp decrease in mean January and mean July temperatures coincided with episodes of low solar activity. The assumption was made about the determining influence of solar activity on the formation of permafrost in the soils and mires of the study area. Sun minima caused permafrost formation in the mire periodically since 8400 cal. a BP in study peatland, but complete freezing of the peat mire and formation of the palsa bog occurred at c. 2800 cal. a BP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Greenland Ice Sheet is a large contributor to global sea level rise, and current mass losses are projected to accelerate. However, model projections of future ice sheet evolution are limited by the fact that the ice sheet is not in equilibrium with present-day climate but is still adjusting to past changes that occurred over thousands of years. While the influence of such committed adjustments on future ice sheet evolution remains unquantified, it could be addressed by calibrating numerical ice sheet models over larger timescales and, importantly, against empirical data on ice margin positions. To enable such paleo data–model interactions, we need Greenland-wide empirical reconstructions of past ice sheet extent that combine geomorphological and geochronological evidence. Despite an increasing number of field studies producing new chronologies, such a reconstruction is currently lacking in Greenland. Furthermore, a time slice reconstruction can help to (i) answer open questions regarding the rate and pattern of ice margin evolution in Greenland since the glacial maximum, (ii) develop a standardised record of empirical data, and (iii) identify new sites for future field campaigns. Based on these motivations, we here present PaleoGrIS 1.0, a new Greenland-wide isochrone reconstruction of ice sheet extent evolution through the Late Glacial and early- to mid-Holocene informed by both geomorphological and geochronological markers. Our isochrones have a temporal resolution of 500 years and span ∼ 7.5 kyr from approximately 14 to 6.5 kyr BP. We describe the resulting reconstruction of the shrinking ice sheet and conduct a series of ice-sheet-wide and regional analyses to quantify retreat rates, areal extent change, and their variability across space and time. During the Late Glacial and early- to mid-Holocene, we find the Greenland Ice Sheet has lost about one-third of its areal extent (0.89 million km 2). Between ∼ 14 and ∼ 8.5 kyr BP, it experienced a near-constant rate of areal extent loss of 170 ± 27 km 2 yr -1. We find that the ice-sheet-scale pattern of margin retreat is well correlated to atmospheric and oceanic temperature variations, which implies a high sensitivity of the ice sheet to deglacial warming. However, during the Holocene, we observe inertia in the ice sheet system that likely caused a centennial- to millennial-scale time lag in ice extent response. At the regional scale, we observe highly heterogeneous deglacial responses in ice extent evident in both the magnitude and rate of retreat. We hypothesise that non-climatic factors, such as the asymmetrical nature of continental shelves and onshore bed topographies, play important roles in determining the regional- to valley-scale dynamics. PaleoGrIS 1.0 is an open-access database designed to be used by both the empirical and numerical modelling communities. It should prove a useful basis for improved future versions of the reconstruction when new geomorphological and geochronological data become available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reconstructing of past hydroclimates at regional scales during the Common Era (CE) is necessary to place the current warming in the context of natural climate variability. Here we present a composite record of oxygen isotope variations during last 2500 years based on eight stalagmites from four caves in the central Pyrenees (NE Spain) dominated by temperature variations, with the amount of precipitation playing a minor role. The dataset is compared with other Iberian reconstructions that show a high degree of internal coherence with respect to variability at the centennial scale. The Roman Period (RP) (especially 0–200 CE), the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), and part of the Little Ice Age (LIA) represent the warmest periods, while the coldest decades occurred during the Dark Ages (DA) and most of the LIA intervals (e.g., 520–550 CE and 1800–1850 CE). Importantly, the LIA cooling or the MCA warming were not continuous or uniform and exhibited high decadal variability. The Industrial Era (IE) shows an overall warming trend although with marked cycles and partial stabilization during the last 2 decades (1990–2010). The strong coherence between the speleothem data, European temperature reconstructions and global tree-ring data informs about the regional representativeness of this new record as Pyrenean past climate variations. Solar variability, likely through its impact on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and major volcanic eruptions appear to be the two main drivers of climate in southwestern Europe during the past 2.5 millennia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme events have become increasingly frequent worldwide which are reflected in diverse changes in the shape of the temperature probability density function. However, few studies have paid attention to the heterogeneity of temperature at the scale of climate zones. Here, we use the ERA5-land data set to explore interdecadal summer temperature changes and the distribution across different climate zones from 1981 to 2019. Comparing the minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperature of 1982–1991 and 2010–2019, the results imply that Tmin and Tmax in summer maintained a notable upward trend over the past 40 years, especially Tmin. The effects of a simple shift toward a warmer climate contributed most to all climate zones, while the standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis had minor effects on extreme temperature except for tropics. Quantile analysis shows that the probability of extreme events in all climate zones is increasing in frequency and intensity, especially Tmin and Tmax in temperate climate zone. Understanding diverse reasons for climate change can assist us with taking different measures to address extreme climate in distinct climate zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea ice is crucial in regulating the heat balance between the ocean and atmosphere and quintessential for supporting the prevailing Arctic food web. Due to limited and often local data availability back in time, the sensitivity of sea-ice proxies to long-term climate changes is not well constrained, which renders any comparison with palaeoclimate model simulations difficult. Here we compiled a set of marine sea-ice proxy records with a relatively high temporal resolution of at least 100 years, covering the Common Era (past 2k years) in the Greenland–North Atlantic sector of the Arctic to explore the presence of coherent long-term trends and common low-frequency variability, and we compared those data with transient climate model simulations. We used cluster analysis and empirical orthogonal functions to extract leading modes of sea-ice variability, which efficiently filtered out local variations and improved comparison between proxy records and model simulations. We find that a compilation of multiple proxy-based sea-ice reconstructions accurately reflects general long-term changes in sea-ice history, consistent with simulations from two transient climate models. Although sea-ice proxies have varying mechanistic relationships to sea-ice cover, typically differing in habitat or seasonal representation, the long-term trend recorded by proxy-based reconstructions showed a good agreement with summer minimum sea-ice area from the model simulations. The short-term variability was not as coherent between proxy-based reconstructions and model simulations. The leading mode of simulated sea ice associated with the multidecadal to centennial timescale presented a relatively low explained variance and might be explained by changes in solar radiation and/or inflow of warm Atlantic waters to the Arctic Ocean. Short variations in proxy-based reconstructions, however, are mainly associated with local factors and the ecological nature of the proxies. Therefore, a regional or large-scale view of sea-ice trends necessitates multiple spatially spread sea-ice proxy-based reconstructions, avoiding confusion between long-term regional trends and short-term local variability. Local-scale sea-ice studies, in turn, benefit from reconstructions from well-understood individual research sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic temperature is one of the most uncertain aspects of mid‐Holocene (MH) climate change modeling, usually attributed to the different responses of different models to external forcing. However, in this study, we find that significant discrepancies (i.e., the noise is close to the signal in term of climate change) in the MH Arctic temperature changes can occur within the same model and for identical external forcing due to initial ocean condition perturbations. It is shown that initial ocean perturbations can affect the surface energy budget change through the uncertain cloud effect on shortwave radiation in boreal summer. The resulted uncertain change in summer surface heat flux alters the subsequent autumn and winter sea ice and contributes to significant differences in Arctic temperature via sea ice‐albedo feedback. This study suggests that internal uncertainty of an individual model is a non‐negligible source of overall uncertainty in simulating the MH Arctic temperature change. Plain Language Summary: Proxies suggest that during the mid‐Holocene (MH) (∼6,000 years ago), the climate was warmer than in the preindustrial period. However, climate models generally suggested a colder MH climate. This discrepancy between data and model results could be attributed to either the biased interpretation of proxy records or the models' unrealistic response to external forcings. From the modeling perspective, the Arctic temperature change is one of the most uncertain aspects of MH simulation, which can hinder our understanding of MH climate change and the comparison with proxy data. Generally, the uncertainty in modeling Arctic temperatures is attributed to variations in the response to external forcings among different models. However, we have uncovered that this uncertainty also exists within a single model. The responses of Arctic temperatures differ significantly in identical experiments when different initial ocean states are used. Specifically, the influence of clouds on the climate is highly sensitive to the initial ocean conditions, leading to various effects on solar radiation, which in turn affects changes in Arctic sea ice to varying degrees, ultimately resulting in distinct Arctic temperature changes during the MH. This study underscores the importance of addressing internal uncertainties within individual climate models when simulating changes in Arctic temperatures. Key Points: The Arctic temperature changes in the mid‐Holocene (MH) exhibit considerable discrepancy among the experiments with initial ocean perturbationThe summer cloud effect on solar insolation plays a crucial role in modifying the Arctic sea ice change and hence the temperature responseThe internal uncertainty within a single model is non‐negligible in simulating the MH Arctic temperature change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a new framework for the reconstruction of climate indices based on proxy data such as tree rings. The framework is based on the supervised learning method Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and aims at preserving the amplitude of past climate variability. It can adequately handle noise-contaminated proxies and variable proxy availability over time. To this end, the GPR is formulated in a modified input space, termed here embedding space. We test the new framework for the reconstruction of the Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV) in a controlled environment with pseudo-proxies derived from coupled climate-model simulations. In this test environment, the GPR outperforms benchmark reconstructions based on multi-linear principal component regression. On AMV-relevant timescales, i.e. multi-decadal, the GPR is able to reconstruct the true amplitude of variability even if the proxies contain a realistic non-climatic noise signal and become sparser back in time. Thus, we conclude that the embedded GPR framework is a highly promising tool for climate-index reconstructions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oxygen isotopes in biogenic silica (δ18OBSi) from lake sediments allow for quantitative reconstruction of past hydroclimate and proxy-model comparison in terrestrial environments. The signals of individual records have been attributed to different factors, such as air temperature (Tair), atmospheric circulation patterns, hydrological changes, and lake evaporation. While every lake has its own local set of drivers of δ18O variability, here we explore the extent to which regional or even global signals emerge from a series of paleoenvironmental records. This study provides a comprehensive compilation and combined statistical evaluation of the existing lake sediment δ18OBSi records, largely missing in other summary publications (i.e. PAGES network). For this purpose, we have identified and compiled 71 down-core records published to date and complemented these datasets with additional lake basin parameters (e.g. lake water residence time and catchment size) to best characterize the signal properties. Records feature widely different temporal coverage and resolution, ranging from decadal-scale records covering the past 150 years to records with multi-millennial-scale resolution spanning glacial–interglacial cycles. The best coverage in number of records (N = 37) and data points (N = 2112) is available for Northern Hemispheric (NH) extratropical regions throughout the Holocene (roughly corresponding to Marine Isotope Stage 1; MIS 1). To address the different variabilities and temporal offsets, records were brought to a common temporal resolution by binning and subsequently filtered for hydrologically open lakes with lake water residence times < 100 years. For mid- to high-latitude (> 45° N) lakes, we find common δ18OBSi patterns among the lake records during both the Holocene and Common Era (CE). These include maxima and minima corresponding to known climate episodes, such as the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), Neoglacial Cooling, Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). These patterns are in line with long-term air temperature changes supported by previously published climate reconstructions from other archives, as well as Holocene summer insolation changes. In conclusion, oxygen isotope records from NH extratropical lake sediments feature a common climate signal at centennial (for CE) and millennial (for Holocene) timescales despite stemming from different lakes in different geographic locations and hence constitute a valuable proxy for past climate reconstructions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]