Search

Variation in free-living microparasite survival can have a meaningful impact on the ecological dynamics of established and emerging infectious diseases. Nevertheless, resolving the importance of indirect and environmental transmission in the ecology of epidemics remains a persistent challenge. It requires accurately measuring the free-living survival of pathogens across reservoirs of various kinds and quantifying the extent to which interaction between hosts and reservoirs generates new infections. These questions are especially salient for emerging pathogens, where sparse and noisy data can obfuscate the relative contribution of different infection routes. In this study, we develop a mechanistic, mathematical model that permits both direct (host-to-host) and indirect (environmental) transmission and then fit this model to empirical data from 17 countries affected by an emerging virus (SARS-CoV-2). From an ecological perspective, our model highlights the potential for environmental transmission to drive complex, nonlinear dynamics during infectious disease outbreaks. Summarizing, we propose that fitting alternative models with indirect transmission to real outbreak data from SARS-CoV-2 can be useful, as it highlights that indirect mechanisms may play an underappreciated role in the dynamics of infectious diseases, with implications for public health.

The relationship between parasite virulence and transmission is a pillar of evolutionary theory that has implications for public health. Part of this canon involves the idea that virulence and free-living survival (a key component of transmission) may have different relationships in different host-parasite systems. Most examinations of the evolution of virulence-transmission relationships-Theoretical or empirical in nature-Tend to focus on the evolution of virulence, with transmission being a secondary consideration. Even within transmission studies, the focus on free-living survival is a smaller subset, though recent studies have examined its importance in the ecology of infectious diseases. Few studies have examined the epidemic-scale consequences of variation in survival across different virulence-survival relationships. In this study, we utilize a mathematical model motivated by aspects of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) natural history to investigate how evolutionary changes in survival may influence several aspects of disease dynamics at the epidemiological scale. Across virulence-survival relationships (where these traits are either positively or negatively correlated), we found that small changes (5% above and below the nominal value) in survival can have a meaningful effect on certain outbreak features, including R 0 , and on the size of the infectious peak in the population. These results highlight the importance of properly understanding the mechanistic relationship between virulence and parasite survival, as the evolution of increased survival across different relationships with virulence may have considerably different epidemiological signatures.

While several basic properties of cholera outbreaks are common to most settings-the pathophysiology of the disease, the waterborne nature of transmission, and others-recent findings suggest that transmission within households may play a larger role in cholera outbreaks than previously appreciated. Important features of cholera outbreaks have long been effectively modeled with mathematical and computational approaches, but little is known about how variation in direct transmission via households may influence epidemic dynamics. In this study, we construct a mathematical model of cholera that incorporates transmission within and between households. We observe that variation in the magnitude of household transmission changes multiple features of disease dynamics, including the severity and duration of outbreaks. Strikingly, we observe that household transmission influences the effectiveness of possible public health interventions (e.g. water treatment, antibiotics, vaccines). We find that vaccine interventions are more effective than water treatment or antibiotic administration when direct household transmission is present. Summarizing, we position these results within the landscape of existing models of cholera, and speculate on its implications for epidemiology and public health., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic often occurs through the persistence of injection drug use. Mathematical models have been useful in understanding various aspects of the HCV epidemic, and especially, the importance of new treatment measures. Until now, however, few models have attempted to understand HCV in terms of an interaction between the various actors in an HCV outbreak-hosts, viruses and the needle injection equipment. In this study, we apply perspectives from the ecology of infectious diseases to model the transmission of HCV among a population of injection drug users. The products of our model suggest that modelling HCV as an indirectly transmitted infection-where the injection equipment serves as an environmental reservoir for infection-facilitates a more nuanced understanding of disease dynamics, by animating the underappreciated actors and interactions that frame disease. This lens may allow us to understand how certain public health interventions (e.g. needle exchange programmes) influence HCV epidemics. Lastly, we argue that this model is of particular importance in the light of the modern opioid epidemic, which has already been associated with outbreaks of viral diseases.

In silico approaches have served a central role in the development of evolutionary theory for generations. This especially applies to the concept of the fitness landscape, one of the most important abstractions in evolutionary genetics, and one which has benefited from the presence of large empirical data sets only in the last decade or so. In this study, we propose a method that allows us to generate enormous data sets that walk the line between in silico and empirical: word usage frequencies as catalogued by the Google ngram corpora. These data can be codified or analogized in terms of a multidimensional empirical fitness landscape towards the examination of advanced concepts-adaptive landscape by environment interactions, clonal competition, higher-order epistasis and countless others. We argue that the greater Lexical Landscapes approach can serve as a platform that offers an astronomical number of fitness landscapes for exploration (at least) or theoretical formalism (potentially) in evolutionary biology., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Cholera continues to be a global health threat. Understanding how cholera spreads between locations is fundamental to the rational, evidence-based design of intervention and control efforts. Traditionally, cholera transmission models have used cholera case-count data. More recently, whole-genome sequence data have qualitatively described cholera transmission. Integrating these data streams may provide much more accurate models of cholera spread; however, no systematic analyses have been performed so far to compare traditional case-count models to the phylodynamic models from genomic data for cholera transmission. Here, we use high-fidelity case-count and whole-genome sequencing data from the 1991 to 1998 cholera epidemic in Argentina to directly compare the epidemiological model parameters estimated from these two data sources. We find that phylodynamic methods applied to cholera genomics data provide comparable estimates that are in line with established methods. Our methodology represents a critical step in building a framework for integrating case-count and genomic data sources for cholera epidemiology and other bacterial pathogens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Transmission dynamic model is a concrete structure to describe and investigate the complex system of host–pathogen interactions. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a blood-borne virus that is transmitted from infectious to susceptible individuals when they come into contact with HCV-contaminated equipment. Injecting drug use is the most known transmission route, and about 80% of new HCV cases have been confirmed as having acquired HCV infection via drug injection. Objective: The main objective of this review paper was to review the importance of HCV dynamic transmission model, that enables the readers to understand the mechanism how HCV is transmissible from infectious to susceptible hosts and the effective controlling strategies. Methods: PubMed Central, Google Scholar, and Web of Science electronic databases have been used to search data by using key terms like "HCV transmission model among people who inject drug (PWID)", HCV potential herd immunity", and "basic reproductive number for HCV transmission in PWID." Data from research findings other than English version have been excluded from being used, and the most recently published data have been considered to be included. Conclusion: HCV belongs to the Hepacivirus genus within the Flaviviridae family. HCV infection is acquired when the susceptible individuals in populations come into contact with medical equipment such as shared syringes and needles, or swabs contaminated with infected blood. Construction of HCV transmission dynamic model is very significant in order to predict the duration and magnitude of its epidemic and to evaluate the potential impact of intervention. Comprehensive harm reduction and care/support service strategies are the best approach for intervention regarding HCV infection transmission among PWID. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the etiological agent of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease, has moved rapidly around the globe, infecting millions and killing hundreds of thousands. The basic reproduction number, which has been widely used—appropriately and less appropriately—to characterize the transmissibility of the virus, hides the fact that transmission is stochastic, often dominated by a small number of individuals, and heavily influenced by superspreading events (SSEs). The distinct transmission features of SARS-CoV-2, e.g., high stochasticity under low prevalence (as compared to other pathogens, such as influenza), and the central role played by SSEs on transmission dynamics cannot be overlooked. Many explosive SSEs have occurred in indoor settings, stoking the pandemic and shaping its spread, such as long-term care facilities, prisons, meat-packing plants, produce processing facilities, fish factories, cruise ships, family gatherings, parties, and nightclubs. These SSEs demonstrate the urgent need to understand routes of transmission, while posing an opportunity to effectively contain outbreaks with targeted interventions to eliminate SSEs. Here, we describe the different types of SSEs, how they influence transmission, empirical evidence for their role in the COVID-19 pandemic, and give recommendations for control of SARS-CoV-2. This Essay discusses how the transmission of COVID-19 is dominated by superspreading events, proposing that finding ways to cut the long tail of secondary infections is important for controlling onward transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Vibrionaceae is a highly diverse family of aquatic bacteria. Some members of this ubiquitous group can cause a variety of diseases in humans ranging from cholera caused by Vibrio cholerae, severe septicemia caused by Vibrio vulnificus, to acute gastroenteritis by Vibrio parahaemolyticus. Planet Earth is experiencing unprecedented changes of planetary scale associated with climate change. These environmental perturbations paired with overpopulation and pollution are increasing the distribution of pathogenic Vibrios and exacerbating the risk of causing infections. In this chapter, we discuss various aspects of Vibrio infections within the context of the twenty-first century with a major emphasis on the aforementioned pathogenic species. Overall, we believe that the twenty-first century is posed to be both one full of challenges due to the rise of these pathogens, and also a catalyst for innovative and groundbreaking discoveries., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Of the over 100 species in the genus Vibrio, approximately twelve are associated with clinical disease, such as cholera and vibriosis. Crucially, eleven of those twelve, including Vibrio cholerae and Vibrio vulnificus, have been isolated from birds. Since 1965, pathogenic Vibrio species have been consistently isolated from aquatic and ground-foraging bird species, which has implications for public health, as well as the One Health paradigm defined as an ecology-inspired, integrative framework for the study of health and disease, inclusive of environmental, human, and animal health. In this meta-analysis, we identified 76 studies from the primary literature which report on or examine birds as hosts for pathogenic Vibrio species. We found that the burden of disease in birds was most commonly associated with V. cholerae, followed by V. metschnikovii and V. parahaemolyticus. Meta-analysis wide prevalence of our Vibrio pathogens varied from 19% for V. parahaemolyticus to 1% for V. mimicus. Wild and domestic birds were both affected, which may have implications for conservation, as well as agriculturally associated avian species. As pathogenic Vibrios become more abundant throughout the world as a result of warming estuaries and oceans, susceptible avian species should be continually monitored as potential reservoirs for these pathogens., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)