1. Validation of a prediction model for early reconnection after cryoballoon ablation.
- Author
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van Waaij K, Keçe F, de Riva M, Alizadeh Dehnavi R, Wijnmaalen AP, Piers SRD, Mertens BJ, Zeppenfeld K, and Trines SA
- Subjects
- Humans, Male, Female, Middle Aged, Aged, Adenosine, Predictive Value of Tests, Recurrence, Pulmonary Veins surgery, Retrospective Studies, Atrial Fibrillation surgery, Cryosurgery methods
- Abstract
Background: We previously developed an early reconnection/dormant conduction (ERC) prediction model for cryoballoon ablation to avoid a 30-min waiting period with adenosine infusion. We now aimed to validate this model based on time to isolation, number of unsuccessful cryo-applications, and nadir balloon temperature., Methods: Consecutive atrial fibrillation patients who underwent their first cryoballoon ablation in 2018-2019 at the Leiden University Medical Center were included. Model performance at the previous and at a new optimal cutoff value was determined., Results: A total of 201 patients were included (85.57% paroxysmal AF, 139 male, median age 61 years (IQR 53-69)). ERC was found in 35 of 201 included patients (17.41%) and in 41 of 774 veins (5.30%). In the present study population, the previous cutoff value of - 6.7 provided a sensitivity of 37.84% (previously 70%) and a specificity of 89.07% (previously 86%). Shifting the cutoff value to - 7.2 in both study populations resulted in a sensitivity of 72.50% and 72.97% and a specificity of 78.22% and 78.63% in data from the previous and present study respectively. Negative predictive values were 96.55% and 98.11%. Applying the model on the 101 patients of the present study with all necessary data for all veins resulted in 43 out of 101 patients (43%) not requiring a 30-min waiting period with adenosine testing. Two patients (2%) with ERC would have been missed when applying the model., Conclusions: The previously established ERC prediction model performs well, recommending its use for centers routinely using adenosine testing following PVI., (© 2024. The Author(s).)
- Published
- 2024
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