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Abstract Background Promoting health equity has been a worldwide goal, but serious challenges remain globally and within China. Multiple decomposition of the sources and determinants of health inequalities has significant implications for narrowing health inequalities and improve health equity. Methods Life expectancy (LE), healthy life expectancy (HALE), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates in 31 provinces of mainland China were selected as health status indicators, obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. Temporal convergence analysis was used to test the evolving trends of health status. Dagum’s Gini coefficient decomposition was used to decompose the overall Gini coefficient based on intraregional and interregional differences. Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition was used to calculate contributions of determinants to interregional differences. The factor-decomposed Gini coefficient was used to analyze the absolute and marginal contribution of each component to overall Gini coefficients. Results From 1990-2019, China witnessed notable improvements in health status measured by LE, HALE, ASMR and age-standardized DALY rates.Nevertheless, the three regions (East, Central and West) exhibited significant inter-regional differences in health status, with the differences between the East and West being the largest. The adjusted short-term conditional β-convergence model indicated that the inter-provincial differences in LE, HALE, ASMR, and age-standardized DALY rates significantly converged at annual rates of 0.31%, 0.35%, 0.19%, and 0.28% over 30 years. The overall Gini coefficients of LE, HALE, and age-standardized DALY rates decreased, while the ASMR exhibited an opposite trend. Inter-regional and intra-regional differences accounted for >70% and

Abstract Elaborating and understanding disparities in the burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to high fasting plasma glucose is important to improve diabetes prevention and promote cardiovascular health. In this study, we pool data on 791,373 people aged 25 years and older from three population-based surveys, and estimate the burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to high fasting plasma glucose between 2010 and 2018 in China by age, sex, region and socio-demographic index. In 2018, an estimated total of 498.61 thousand (95% uncertainty interval 463.93 to 534.12) cardiovascular disease-related deaths are attributable to high fasting plasma glucose in China. High fasting plasma glucose accounts for 1076.09 years of life lost per 100,000 people (95% uncertainty interval 1026.88–1129.04) due to cardiovascular disease in 2018, with substantial variation across provinces. In 2018, the higher age-standardised cardiovascular disease mortality rate attributable to high fasting plasma glucose is observed in the high-middle socio-demographic index region and the middle socio-demographic index region. Nationally, compared to 2010, exposure to high fasting plasma glucose and population aging in 2018 are the primary drivers of increased fasting plasma glucose-related deaths due to cardiovascular disease. Findings of this study emphasize the importance of developing population-specific tailored measures in China and other regions with similar condition.

Abstract. Background:. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the primary causes of disability and death. The aim of this study is to analyze the disease burden of NCDs in China from 1990 to 2021. Methods:. This study used data on NCDs in China and its provinces from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. The study analyzed the disease burden of NCDs in 2021 and its changes from 1990 to 2021 using indicators including deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Results:. Between 1990 and 2021, the NCD burden in China exhibited an upward trend. In 2021, China had 10.6 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 9.0–12.2) million deaths and 349.3 (95% UI: 301.5–401.2) million DALYs due to NCDs, accounting for 91.0% (95% UI: 90.4–91.7%) of all deaths and 86.7% (95% UI: 86.0–87.4%) of all DALYs. NCDs caused a lower disease burden in females than in males. Cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms were the main NCD level 2 causes of deaths and DALYs, resulting in 5.1 (95% UI: 4.3–5.9) and 2.8 (95% UI: 2.3–3.4) million deaths and 100.2 (95% UI: 84.6–116.6) million and 71.2 (95% UI: 59.3–85.2) million DALYs in 2021, respectively. Chronic respiratory diseases were the third leading cause of NCD deaths, while musculoskeletal disorders were the third leading cause of NCD DALYs. Qinghai, Xizang, and Heilongjiang had the highest age-standardized mortality rates and age-standardized DALY rates (per 100,000) for NCDs, while Hong Kong Special Administration Region (SAR), Macao SAR, and Shanghai recorded the lowest age-standardized mortality rates and age-standardized DALY rates. Conclusions:. NCDs caused a high disease burden in China and exhibited heterogeneity across sexes and provinces. China needs to focus on addressing key NCDs and implement intervention measures tailored to the disease distribution characteristics to reduce the NCD burden.

Abstract. Background:. Evaluating the impact of digestive system diseases is vital for devising effective prevention strategies. However, comprehensive reports on the burden of digestive system diseases in China are lacking. Our study aimed to provide an overview of the burden and trends of digestive system diseases from 1990 to 2019 in China and its provinces. Methods:. This cross-sectional study utilized the Global Disease Burden Study 2019 to estimate the incidence, mortality rate, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life disability, years of life lost, and changes in the burden of digestive diseases across Chinese provinces from 1990 to 2019. The analysis of disease burden primarily examines the characteristics of sub-disease distribution, time trends, age distribution, and sex distribution. Additionally, we compared provincial age-standardized DALYs for digestive diseases with the expected rates based on the socio-demographic index (SDI). Results:. In 2019, there were 499.2 million cases of digestive system diseases in China, resulting in 1,557,310 deaths. Stomach cancer, colon and rectal cancer, and esophageal cancer are the top three diseases associated with mortality and DALY related to digestive system diseases. Meanwhile, cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases, gastroesophageal reflux disease, and gallbladder and biliary diseases are the top three kinds of diseases with the highest prevalence among digestive system diseases. The risk of gastric cancer sharply increases among men after the age of 40 years, leading to a significant disparity in burden between men and women. As the SDI increased, the DALYs associated with digestive system diseases in China and its provinces showed a downward trend. Conclusion:. Our study highlights the inverse correlation between DALYs associated with digestive system diseases and the SDI.

Background: A milestone goal of the Healthy China Program (2019–2030) is to achieve 5-year cancer survival at 43.3% for all cancers combined by 2022. To assess the progress towards this target, we analyzed the updated survival for all cancers combined and 25 specific cancer types in China from 2019 to 2021. Methods: We conducted standardized data collection and quality control for cancer registries across 32 provincial-level regions in China, and included 6,410,940 newly diagnosed cancer patients from 281 cancer registries during 2008–2019, with follow-up data on vital status available until December 2021. We estimated the age-standardized 5-year relative survival overall and by site, age group, and period of diagnosis using the International Cancer Survival Standard Weights, and quantified the survival changes to assess the progress in cancer control. Results: In 2019–2021, the age-standardized 5-year relative survival for all cancers combined was 43.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 43.6–43.7). The 5-year relative survival varied by cancer type, ranging from 8.5% (95% CI, 8.2–8.7) for pancreatic cancer to 92.9% (95% CI, 92.4–93.3) for thyroid cancer. Eight cancers had 5-year survival of over 60%, including cancers of the thyroid, breast, testis, bladder, prostate, kidney, uterus, and cervix. The 5-year relative survival was generally lower in males than in females. From 2008 to 2021, we observed significant survival improvements for cancers of the lung, prostate, bone, uterus, breast, cervix, nasopharynx, larynx, and bladder. The most significant improvement was in lung cancer. Conclusions: Progress in cancer control was evident in China. This highlights the importance of a comprehensive approach to control and prevent cancer.

Abstract. Background:. Studies that comprehensively address the characteristics of centenarian deaths are rare. The present study aimed to depict the characteristics of centenarian deaths in China and their changing trends. Methods:. Data on centenarian deaths between 2013 and 2020 were obtained from the national mortality surveillance system of China, including date, place of death (PoD), and underlying cause of death (CoD). Descriptive analyses were performed to understand the epidemiological characteristics, and a joinpoint regression model was adopted to examine the changing trends in the proportions of different PoDs, CoDs among centenarians, and centenarian deaths accounting for all deaths and deaths among people aged 65 years and older. Results:. There were 46,938 registered centenarian deaths between 2013 and 2020 that included 34,311 females (73.10%) and 12,627 males (26.90%). January (12.05%), February (9.99%), and December (9.74%) were the top three months with the highest number of deaths. The proportions of deaths that occurred in homes, hospitals, and nursing homes were 81.71%, 13.63%, and 2.68%, respectively. The proportion of deaths in nursing homes increased by 9.60% (95% confidence intervals [CIs], 6.4–12.9%) from 2014 to 2020. Heart disease (35.72%) was the leading cause of death, followed by respiratory diseases (17.63%), cerebrovascular disease (15.60%), and old age (11.22%). The proportion of respiratory diseases decreased by 4.8% (95% CI, –8.8 to –0.7%), and the proportion of deaths from old age decreased by 2.3% (95% CI, –4.4 to –0.1%) per year. Shanghai had the highest proportions of deaths in hospitals (39.38%) and nursing homes (14.68%). Sichuan had the highest proportion of deaths attributed to respiratory diseases (32.30%), while Jiangsu (26.58%) and Zhejiang (23.61%) had the highest proportions of deaths from old age. Conclusion:. Unlike other countries, centenarian deaths in China are characterized by a higher proportion of home and heart disease deaths, and this death pattern differs across provinces.

Abstract Background Temperature extremes are anticipated to become more frequent and more intense under the context of climate change. While current evidence on health effects of compound extreme temperature event is scarce. Methods This nationwide cross-sectional study collected daily data on weather and mortality for 161 Chinese districts/counties during 2007-2013. A quasi-Poisson generalized linear model was first applied to assess effects of daytime-only, nighttime-only and compound daytime-nighttime heat wave (and cold spell) on cause-specific mortality. Then a random-effect meta-analysis was used to produce pooled estimates at national level. Stratification analyses were performed by relative humidity, individual and regional characteristics. Results Here we show that mortality risks of compound daytime-nighttime temperature extremes are much higher than those occurring only in the daytime or nighttime. Humid weather further exaggerates the mortality risk during heat waves, while dry air enhances the risk during cold weather. People who are elderly, illiterate, and those with ischemic heart disease and respiratory disease are particularly vulnerable to extreme temperature. At the community-level, population size, urbanization rate, proportion of elderly and PM2.5 are positively associated with increased risks associated with heat waves. Temperature, humidity and normalized difference vegetation index are positively associated with the effects of cold weather, with an opposite trend for latitude and diurnal temperature range. Conclusions This nationwide study highlights the importance of incorporating compound daytime-nighttime extreme temperature events and humid conditions into early warning systems and urban design/planning.

Background: Global warming has provoked more co-occurrence of hot extreme and dry extreme, namely compound hot-dry events (CHDEs). However, their health impacts have seldom been investigated. This study aimed to characterize CHDEs and assess its mortality burden in China from 1990 to 2100. Methods: CHDEs were defined as a day when daily maximum temperature > its 90th percentile and Standardized Precipitation Index

Summary: Background: Short-term exposure to particulate matter air pollution has been associated with the exacerbations of COPD, but its association with COPD mortality was not fully elucidated. We aimed to assess the association between short-term particulate matter exposure and the risk of COPD mortality in China using individual-level data. Methods: We derived 2.26 million COPD deaths from a national death registry database in Chinese mainland between 2013 and 2019. Exposures to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and coarse particulate matter (PM2.5-10) were assessed by satellite-based models of a 1 × 1 km resolution and assigned to each individual based on residential address. The associations of PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 with COPD mortality were examined using a time-stratified case-crossover design and conditional logistic regressions with distributed lag models. We further conducted stratified analyses by age, sex, education level, and season. Findings: Short-term exposures to both PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 were associated with increased risks of COPD mortality. These associations appeared and peaked on the concurrent day, attenuated and became nonsignificant after 5 or 7 days, respectively. The exposure-response curves were approximately linear without discernible thresholds. An interquartile range increase in PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 concentrations was associated with 4.23% (95% CI: 3.75%, 4.72%) and 2.67% (95% CI: 2.18%, 3.16%) higher risks of COPD mortality over lag 0–7 d, respectively. The associations of PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 attenuated slightly but were still significant in the mutual-adjustment models. A larger association of PM2.5-10 was observed in the warm season. Interpretation: This individual-level, nationwide, case-crossover study suggests that short-term exposure to PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 might act as one of the environmental risk factors for COPD mortality. Funding: This study is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2023YFC3708304 and 2022YFC3702701), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82304090 and 82030103), the 3-year Action Plan for Strengthening the Construction of the Public Health System in Shanghai (GWVI-11.2-YQ31), and the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (21TQ015).

Abstract. Background:. Spinal injuries are an urgent public health priority; nevertheless, no China-wide studies of these injuries exist. This study measured the incidence, prevalence, causes, regional distribution, and annual trends of spinal injuries in China from 1990 to 2019. Methods:. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 to estimate the incidence and prevalence of spinal injuries in China. The data of 33 provincial-level administrative regions (excluding Taiwan, China) provided by the National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were use to systematically analyze the provincial etiology, geographical distribution, and annual trends of spinal injuries. The Bayesian meta-regression tool DisMod-MR 2.1 was used to ensure the consistency among incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates in each case. Results:. From 1990 to 2019, the number of living patients with spinal injuries in China increased by 138.32%, from 2.14 million to 5.10 million, while the corresponding age-standardized prevalence increased from 0.20% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.18–0.21%) to 0.27% (95% UI: 0.26–0.29%). The incidence of spinal injuries in China increased by 89.91% (95% UI: 72.39–107.66%), and the prevalence increased by 98.20% (95% UI: 89.56–106.82%), both the most significant increases among the G20 countries; 71.00% of the increase could be explained by age-specific prevalence. In 2019, the incidence was 16.47 (95% UI: 12.08–22.00, per 100,000 population), and the prevalence was 358.30 (95% UI: 333.96–386.62, per 100,000 population). Based on the data of 33 provincial-level administrative regions provided by CDC, age-standardized incidence and prevalence were both highest in developed provinces in Eastern China. The primary causes were falls and road injuries; however, the prevalence and specific causes differed across provinces. Conclusions:. In China, the overall disease burden of spinal injuries increased significantly during the past three decades but varied considerably according to geographical location. The primary causes were falls and road injuries; however, the prevalence and specific causes differed across provinces.

Abstract Limited knowledge exists regarding the ramifications of climate warming on death burden from neurodegenerative diseases. Here, we conducted a nationwide, individual-level, case-crossover study between 2013 and 2019 to investigate the effects of non-optimal temperatures on various neurodegenerative diseases and to predict the potential death burden under different climate change scenarios. Our findings reveal that both low and high temperatures are linked to increased risks of neurodegenerative diseases death. We project that heat-related neurodegenerative disease deaths would increase, while cold-related deaths would decrease. This is characterized by a steeper slope in the high-emission scenario, but a less pronounced trend in the scenarios involving mitigation strategies. Furthermore, we predict that the net changes in attributable death would increase after the mid-21st century, especially under the unrestricted-emission scenario. These results highlight the urgent need for effective climate and public health policies to address the growing challenges of neurodegenerative diseases associated with global warming.

Summary: Background: Parkinson's disease (PD) has become a public health concern with global ageing. However, comprehensive assessments of the temporal and geographical trend of PD disease burden in China remain insufficient. This study aimed to examine the burden of PD by age, gender, and geographical region in China during 1990–2021. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we analysed the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY burden of PD in 33 Chinese provinces/regions. We compared the national figure with the global average and the corresponding estimates from the G20 countries. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to quantify the temporal trends of PD burden during 1990–2021. We further assessed the PD burden by age and gender during 1990–2021. We used a decomposition analysis to investigate the changes in the number of new cases, patients, and deaths of PD during 1990–2021. Findings: In 2021, China recorded the highest age-standardised incidence and prevalence of PD among the G20 countries, at 24.3 per 100,000 and 245.7 per 100,000, respectively, figures that were much higher than the global average. During 1990–2021, the age-standardised incidence of PD in China increased by 89.7%, and the age-standardised prevalence by 167.8%, both marking the largest increases among the G20 countries. In contrast, the age-standardised mortality for PD has significantly decreased since 1990, whereas the age-standardised DALY rate for PD has remained relatively unchanged since 1990. The PD burden gradually increased with age, especially in the elderly population aged ≥65 years. During 1990–2021, the burden in males consistently surpassed that in females, with the gender difference widening over time. The increase in new cases and patients of PD was primarily driven by changes in age-specific rates, while the rise in PD-related deaths was largely attributable to population ageing. The disease burden of PD varied considerably across the Chinese provinces. In 2021, age-standardised incidence and prevalence of PD were generally higher in China's southeastern coastal regions than in the western regions, and age-standardised DALY rates were higher in the northern regions than in other regions. Interpretation: The disease burden of PD in China has consistently risen over the past three decades, particularly among elderly men. The increasing causative factors and population aging highlight the need for enhancing public health intervention and resource allocation, especially in etiological research, early diagnosis, preventive strategies, and region-specific management for PD. Funding: Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China (2022YFC2304900, 2022YFC2505100); National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFC2505100, 2022YFC2505103, 2018YFC1315300); Outstanding Young Scholars Support Program (grant number: 3111500001); Epidemiology modeling and risk assessment (grant number: 20200344), and Xi'an Jiaotong University Young Scholar Support Grant (grant number: YX6J004).

Summary: Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been found to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and temperature variability. This study aimed to assess the extent to which human-induced climate change contributes to future heat-related CVD burdens. Methods: Daily data on CVD mortality and temperature were collected in 161 Chinese communities from 2007 to 2013. The association between heat and CVD mortality was established using a two-stage time-series design. Under the natural forcing, human-induced, and combined scenarios, we then separately projected excess cause-/age-/region-/education-specific mortality from future high temperature in 2010–2100, assuming no adaptation and population changes. Findings: Under shared socioeconomic pathway with natural forcing scenario (SSP2–4.5–nat), heat-related attributable fraction of CVD deaths decreased slightly from 3.3% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): 0.3, 5.8] in the 2010s to 2.8% (95% eCI: 0.1, 5.2) in the 2090s, with relative change of −0.4% (95% eCI: −0.8, 0.0). However, for combined natural and human-induced forcings, this estimate would surge to 8.9% (95% eCI: 1.5, 15.7), 14.4% (95% eCI: 1.5, 25.3), 21.3% (95% eCI: −0.6, 39.4), and 28.7% (95% eCI: −3.3, 48.0) in the 2090s under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, respectively. When excluding the natural forcing, the number of human-induced heat-related CVD deaths would increase from approximately eight thousand (accounting for 31% of total heat-related CVD deaths) in the 2010s to 33,052 (68%), 63,283 (80%), 101,091 (87%), and 141,948 (90%) in the 2090s under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, respectively. Individuals with stroke, females, the elderly, people living in rural areas, and those with lower education level would exhibit heightened susceptibility to future high temperature. In addition, Southern and Eastern regions of China were expected to experience a faster increase in heat-related attributable fraction of CVD deaths. Interpretation: Human activities would significantly amplify the future burden of heat-related CVD. Our study findings suggested that active adaptation and mitigation measures towards future warming could yield substantial health benefits for the patients with CVD. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Objective To investigate the correlation of waist circumference and its change with hypertension incidence among Chinese residents aged 18 – 65 years for providing evidence to the prevention and control of hypertension. MethodsA prospective dynamic cohort was established among the participants of 7 waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) conducted from 1993 to 2015 across the mainland of China. After screening out pregnant women and those with abnormal waist circumference (< 50 or >150 centimeters [cm]), the study enrolled 9 980 community residents aged 18 to 65 years who had participated in at least two waves of the survey and were not identified as having hypertension at the baseline survey. The study period was from 1997 through 2015. The individual period of follow-up was from the baseline survey to the last follow-up for non-hypertensives; but for hypertensives, the follow-up ended by the identification of hypertension incidence. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to analyze the influence of baseline waist circumference and its change on hypertension incidence. ResultsDuring the follow-up among 5 060 male and 4 920 female participants aged 36.88 ± 11.42 years and with a median follow-up of 7 years, totally 3 132 hypertension incidences were observed and the incidence density was 32.60/1 000 person-years; among the participants at the baseline survey with normal waist circumference (< 85 cm for males and < 80 cm for females), pre-obesity (85 – 89 cm for males and 80 – 84 cm for females), and central obesity ( ≥ 90 cm for males and ≥ 85 cm for females), the number (incidence density) of observed hypertension incidence were 1 983 (26.71/1 000 person-years), 496 (45.78/1 000 person-years), and 653 (59.45/1 000 person-years), respectively. After adjusting for sex, age, education, marital status, residence place, smoking, current alcohol consumption, total physical activity level, fat intake ratio, baseline chronic disease, baseline waist circumference, and the year at first and last follow-up, multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression showed that an increase of 1cm in waist circumference was associated with a 1.7% increased risk of hypertension (hazard risk [HR] = 1.017, 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 1.011 – 1.024) and an increase of ≥ 5 cm in waist circumference was associated with a 29.5% increased risk of hypertension (HR = 1.295, 95%CI: 1.130 – 1.484) in comparison to normal waist circumference. The results of restricted cubic spline analysis revealed that the increase of 4.9 cm and higher in waist circumference was correlated with the increased risk of hypertension. In the same way after adjusting for confounding factors listed above, the results of multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression indicated that the risk of hypertension increased by 27.2% (HR = 1.272, 95%CI: 1.117 – 1.449) and 77.5% (HR = 1.775, 95%CI: 1.546-2.038) for all the participants with the waist circumference changed from normal to abnormal level and those with persistent abnormal waist circumference compared with the participants with persistent normal waist circumference; the increased risks were also significant for both male participants (HR = 1.191, 95%CI: 1.004 – 1.412 and HR = 1.485, 95%CI: 1.218 – 1.810) and female participants (HR = 1.374, 95%CI: 1.121 – 1.684 and HR = 2.061, 95%CI: 1.691 – 2.513). ConclusionBoth baseline abnormal waist circumference and increased waist circumference over time can increase the risk of hypertension incidence. Keeping a waist circumference within the normal range with an increase of less than 5 cm is of great significance for the prevention and control of hypertension among adult population.

Abstract Background Pancreatic cancer is a growing public health concern in China, and depicting it from different perspectives would provide a comprehensive understanding of its epidemiological characteristics. Methods Data from the National Mortality Surveillance System (NMSS) in China was used to estimate the number of deaths, years of life lost (YLL), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized YLL rate in China, its provinces and urban-rural areas from 2005 to 2020. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to explore the temporal trends of ASMR and age-standardized YLL rate. Decomposition analysis was conducted to assess the contribution of population growth, population aging and cause-specific mortality rate to the increment of pancreatic cancer deaths. Results A total of 100,427 pancreatic cancer deaths and 2,166,355 pancreatic cancer related YLL were estimated in China in 2020. The overall ASMR significantly increased from 6.6/100 000 in 2005 to 7.4/100 000 in 2020, and was higher in men than that in women. Age-standardized YLL rate showed a similar trend. The mortality rates of pancreatic cancer were generally higher in northeast China than in southwest China. The highest ASMRs were found in Jilin, Zhejiang, Inner Mongolia and Anhui, and the lowest ones in Guangxi, Yunnan, Tibet, and Hainan. The disease burden due to pancreatic cancer presented a significant upward trend in rural areas and a downward trend in urban areas. Conclusions The burden associated with pancreatic cancer had been increasing in China from 2005 to 2020. The escalating disease burden of pancreatic cancer in rural areas necessitates the implementation of effective control and prevention measures. Relevant provinces should pay greater attention to the prevailing of pancreatic cancer, particularly those exhibiting higher mortality rates.

Abstract Background The scarcity of sepsis epidemiologic data from most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) hampered estimation of regional and global burden of the disease, and provided limited guidance for policy makers. We aimed to characterize and analyze the temporal trends of sepsis-related mortality in China, by population groups, underlying causes of death, geographic regions, and sociodemographic index (SDI) levels. Methods Sepsis-related deaths were identified from the National Mortality Surveillance System (NMSS) of China from 2006 to 2020. Trends of sepsis-related mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), stratified by age, sex, underlying diseases, and regions were analyzed using the Jointpoint regression analysis. We investigated the association of SDI with trends of sepsis-related mortality. Results In 2020, sepsis was estimated to be responsible for 986,929 deaths and 17.1 million YLLs in China. Age-standardized sepsis-related mortality significantly declined from 130.2 (95%CI, 129.4–131) per 100,000 population in 2006 to 76.6 (76.3–76.9) in 2020. Age-standardized YLLs decreased from 2172.7 (2169.4–2176) per 100,000 population in 2006 to 1271 (1269.8–1272.2) in 2020. Substantial variations of sepsis-related mortality and YLLs were observed between population groups and regions, with higher burden in males, the elderly, and western China. An inverse relation was noted between SDI and sepsis-related mortality or YLLs. Conclusions Despite declining trends of age-standardized mortality and YLLs of sepsis in China, significant disparities between population groups and regions highlight a need for targeted policies and measures to close the gaps and improve the outcome of sepsis.

ObjectiveTo examine the effect of brisk walking intervention in occupational populations with normal high blood pressure, and to provide quantified evidence for health improvement of occupational population with normal high blood pressure. MethodsThe information on demographics, physical examination and walking of 4 855 workers with normal high blood pressure were extracted from a brisk walking incentive intervention program for occupation populations conducted during 2016 in China. The substitution effects of low intensity physical activity (LPA), moderate intensity physical activity (MPA) and high intensity physical activity (HPA) instead of sedentary behavior (SB) on health outcomes were analyzed with isochronal substitution model. Results The results of isochronous substitution model analysis showed that the body mass index (BMI), body fat rate (BFP) and visceral fat index (VAI) of occupational people with normal high blood pressure decreased by 0.102 (β = – 0.102), 0.150% (β = – 0.150) and 0.071 (β = – 0.071), respectively when the SB was replaced by MPA time of 30 min/d during the same period. The results of subgroup analysis showed that MPA time of 30 min/d instead of SB during the same period could decrease BMI by an additional 0.120 (β = – 0.120) in male occupational population with normal high blood pressure, and an additional 0.287% (β = – 0.287) and 0.119 (β = – 0.119) in BFP and VAI in female occupational group with normal high blood pressure, respectively. BMI, BFP and VAI decreased by 0.127 (β = – 0.127), 0.192% (β = – 0.192), and 0.098 (β = – 0.098) in normal high blood pressure occupational group aged 49 years old; while BMI and VAI decreased by 0.160 (β = 0.160) and 0.080 (β = – 0.080) in overweight and obese occupational group. BMI, BFP and VAI decreased by an additional 0.206 (β = – 0.206), 0.216% (β = – 0.216) and 0.127 (β = – 0.127), respectively, and BMI and BFP decreased by an additional 0.063 (β = – 0.063) and 0.143% (β = – 0.143) in normal high blood pressure occupation group with normal BFP. The BMI could be decreased by 0.189 (β = – 0.189) in the normal high blood pressure occupational group with BFP-indicated obesity, while the BMI, BFP and VAI could be decreased by 0.144 (β = 0.144), 0.200% (β = – 0.200) and 0.104 (β = – 0.104) in the normal high blood pressure occupational group with VAI-indicated obesity. A 30 min/d HPA time instead of SB during the same period resulted in an additional decrease of 0.641% (β = – 0.641) and 0.295 (β = – 0.295) in BFP and VAI in men with normal high blood pressure, and an additional 1.020% (β = – 1.020) and 0.520 (β = – 0.520) in BFP and VAI in those ≥ 50 years old; BFP could be decreased by an additional 0.748% (β = – 0.748) in normal high blood pressure occupational population with BFP-indicated obesity. Conclusion A 30 min/d MPA time instead of SB during the same period can improve the BMI, BFP and VAI at different degrees in the occupational populations with normal high blood pressure; however there may be no isochronous substitution for health improvement effect of LPA and HPA instead of SB in the whole population; the moderate intensity walking exercise of 100 – 130 steps/min can be promoted in this population.

Abstract Background The global prevalence of insufficient physical activity (PA) was reported to be 27.5% in 2016, and there were stable levels of insufficient PA worldwide between 2001 and 2016. The global target of a 10% reduction in insufficient PA by 2025 will not be met if the trends remain. The relevant data for trends in China were still scarce. This study aimed to determine nationwide temporal trends in insufficient PA among adults in China from 2010 to 2018. Methods 645 903 adults aged 18 years or older were randomly selected from four nationally representative cross-sectional surveys of the China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance conducted in 2010, 2013, 2015, and 2018. PA was measured using the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire. Temporal changes in insufficient PA prevalence and participation of domain-specific moderate- to vigorous-intensity PA (MVPA) were analyzed using logistic regression. Results From 2010 to 2018, the age-adjusted prevalence of insufficient PA in China increased from 17.9% (95% confidence interval 16.3% to 19.5%) in 2010 to 22.3% (20.9% to 23.8%) in 2018 (P for trend

Abstract Objective As a potentially life‐threatening condition, myasthenia gravis (MG) has limited epidemiological studies on mortality. We aim to provide demographic distribution, geographical variation, and temporal trend of MG‐related mortality in China. Methods The national population‐based analysis was conducted based on records derived from the National Mortality Surveillance System of China. All deaths related to MG were identified from 2013 to 2020, and MG‐related mortality was evaluated by sex, age, location, and year. Results A total of 4224 deaths were related to MG during 2013–2020, and the median age at death of MG was 59.45 years, significantly lower than that in the general population (75.47 years, P

Summary: Background: It remains unknown how ambient temperature impact pneumonia of various infectious causes. Methods: Based on the national death registry covering all counties in Chinese mainland, we conducted an individual-level case-crossover study in China from 2013 to 2019. Exposures were assigned at residential addresses for each decedent. Conditional logistic regression model combined with distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the exposure-response associations. The attributable fractions due to non-optimum temperature were calculated after accounting for spatial and temporal patterns for the excess risks. Findings: The exposure-response curves were inversely J-shaped with both low and high temperature increasing the risks, and the effect of low temperature was stronger. Extremely low temperature was associated with higher magnitude of influenza-related pneumonia [relative risk (RR): 2.46, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.62–3.74], than viral pneumonia (RR: 1.89, 95% CI: 1.55–2.30) and bacterial pneumonia (RR: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.56–2.09). The magnitudes of RRs associated with extremely high temperature were similar among the three categories of pneumonia. The mortality attributable fraction for influenza-related pneumonia (29.78%) was the highest. The effects were stronger in people of low education level or residence in the north. Interpretation: This nationwide study presents findings on the varied risk and burden of pneumonia mortality of various infectious causes, and highlights the susceptibility of influenza-related pneumonia to ambient low temperature. Funding: This study is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program (2022YFC3702701), the Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Commission (21TQ015) and Shanghai International Science and Technology Partnership Project (21230780200).

Abstract Background The Chinese government implemented the health poverty alleviation project (HPAP) since 2016 in poverty counties (PCs). To evaluate the effect of the HPAP on hypertension health management and control in PCs is vital for the policy improvement. Methods China Chronic Disease and Risk Factors Surveillance programme were conducted from August 2018 to June 2019. A total of 95,414 participants aged 35 and above from 59 PCs and 129 non-poverty counties (NPCs) were involved in this study. Hypertension prevalence, hypertension control, treatment and health management prevalence, and physical examination proportion were calculated and compared by PCs and NPCs. Logistic regression was employed to explore the association between hypertension control and management services. Results The hypertension prevalence in NPCs was significantly higher than that in PCs (NPCs 46.1% vs. PCs 41.2%, P

Abstract Background Measurement of the Chinese burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weight (DW) that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 DW study indicates that it is limited by lack of geographic variation in DW data and by the current measurement methodology. We aim to estimate DW for a set of health states from major diseases in the Wuhan population. Methods We conducted the DW measurement study for 206 health states through a household survey with computer-assisted face-to-face interviews and a web-based survey. Based on GBD 2013 DW study, paired comparison (PC) and Population health equivalence (PHE) method was used and different PC/PHE questions were randomly assigned to each respondent. In statistical analysis, the PC data was analyzed by probit regression. The probit regression results will be anchored by results from the PHE data analyzed by interval regression on the DW scale units between 0 (no loss of health) and 1 (loss equivalent to death). Results A total of 2610 and 3140 individuals were included in the household and web-based survey, respectively. The results from the total pooled data showed health state “mild anemia” (DW = 0.005, 95% UI 0.000–0.027) or “allergic rhinitis (hay fever)” (0.005, 95% UI 0.000–0.029) had the lowest DW and “heroin and other opioid dependence, severe” had the highest DW (0.699, 95% UI 0.579–0.827). A high correlation coefficient (Pearson’s r = 0.876; P

BackgroundAir pollution is a major public health concern. Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) is a very important air quality risk communication tool. However, AQHI is usually constructed by single-pollutant model, which has obvious disadvantages.ObjectiveTo construct an AQHI based on the joint effects of multiple air pollutants (J-AQHI), and to provide a scientific tool for health risk warning and risk communication of air pollution.MethodsData on non-accidental deaths in Yunnan, Guangdong, Hunan, Zhejiang, and Jilin provinces from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2018 were obtained from the corresponding provincial disease surveillance points systems (DSPS), including date of death, age, gender, and cause of death. Daily meteorological (temperature and relative humidity) and air pollution data (SO2, NO2, CO, PM2.5, PM10, and maximum 8 h O3 concentrations) at the same period were respectively derived from China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System and National Urban Air Quality Real-time Publishing Platform. Lasso regression was first applied to select air pollutants, then a time-stratified case-crossover design was applied. Each case was matched to 3 or 4 control days which were selected on the same days of the week in the same calendar month. Then a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to estimate the exposure-response relationship between selected air pollutants and mortality, which was used to construct the AQHI. Finally, AQHI was classified into four levels according to the air pollutant guidance limit values from World Health Organization Global Air Quality Guidelines (AQG 2021), and the excess risks (ERs) were calculated to compare the AQHI based on single-pollutant model and the J-AQHI based on multi-pollutant model.ResultsPM2.5, NO2, SO2, and O3 were selected by Lasso regression to establish DLNM model. The ERs for an interquartile range (IQR) increase and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for PM2.5, NO2, SO2 and O3 were 0.71% (0.34%–1.09%), 2.46% (1.78%–3.15%), 1.25% (0.9%–1.6%), and 0.27% (−0.11%–0.65%) respectively. The distribution of J-AQHI was right-skewed, and it was divided into four levels, with ranges of 0-1 for low risk, 2-3 for moderate risk, 4-5 for high health risk, and ≥6 for severe risk, and the corresponding proportions were 11.25%, 64.61%, 19.33%, and 4.81%, respectively. The ER (95%CI) of mortality risk increased by 3.61% (2.93–4.29) for each IQR increase of the multi-pollutant based J-AQHI , while it was 3.39% (2.68–4.11) for the single-pollutant based AQHI .ConclusionThe J-AQHI generated by multi-pollutant model demonstrates the actual exposure health risk of air pollution in the population and provides new ideas for further improvement of AQHI calculation methods.

Abstract Background While epidemiological studies have found correlations between light at night (LAN) and health effects, none has so far investigated the impacts of LAN on population mortality yet. We aimed to estimate the relative risk for mortality from exposure to LAN in Mainland China. Methods This time-stratified case-crossover nationwide study used NPP-VIIRS to obtain daily LAN data of Mainland China between 2015 and 2019. The daily mortality data were obtained from the Disease Surveillance Point System in China. Conditional Poisson regression models were applied to examine the relative risk (RR) for mortality along daily LAN in each county, then meta-analysis was performed to combine the county-specific estimates at the national or regional level. Results A total of 579 counties with an average daily LAN of 4.39 (range: 1.02–35.46) were included in the main analysis. The overall RRs per 100 nW/cm2/sr increases in daily LAN were 1.08 (95%CI: 1.05–1.11) for all-cause mortality and 1.08 (95%CI: 1.05–1.11) for natural-cause mortality. A positive association between LAN and all natural cause-specific mortality was observed, of which the strongest effect was observed on mortality caused by neuron system disease (RR = 1.32, 95%CI: 1.14–1.52). The results were robust in both younger and old, as well as in males and females. The more pronounced effect of LAN was observed in median LAN-level regions. Combined with an exposure–response curve, our study suggests a non-linear association between LAN and mortality in China. Conclusions Our study shows LAN is associated with mortality in China, particularly for neuron system disease-related mortality. These findings have important implications for public health policy establishment to minimize the health consequences of light pollution.

Abstract Background A universal set of disability weights(DWs) is mainly based on the survey of North America, Australia and Europe, whereas the participants in Asia was limited. The debate hasn’t yet settled whether a universal DW is desirable or useful.The focus of the debate is its representativenes-s.After all, the DWs come from people's subjective evaluation of pain, and they may vary according to cultural background.The differences of the DWs could have implications for the magnitude or ranking of disease burdens.The DWs of Anhui Province has not been completely presented.This paper aims to obtain the DWs suitable for the general population of Anhui Province of China, and attempts to explore the differences between different DWs by comparing the DWs with the similar-cultural background and the DWs with cross-cultural background. Methods A web-based survey was conducted to estimate the DWs for 206 health states of Anhui province in 2020. Paired comparison (PC) data were analyzed and anchored by probit regression and fitting loess model. We compared the DWs in Anhui with other provinces in China and those in Global burden of disease (GBD) and Japan. Results Compared with Anhui province, the proportion of health states which showed 2 times or more differences ranged from 1.94% (Henan) to 11.17% (Sichuan) in China and domestic provinces. It was 19.88% in Japan and 21.51% in GBD 2013 respectively. In Asian countries or regions, most of the health states with top 15 DWs belonged to the category of mental, behavioral, and substance use disorders. But in GBD, most were infectious diseases and cancer. The differences of DWs in neighboring provinces were smaller than other geographically distant provinces or countries. Conclusion PC responses were largely consistent across very distinct settings,but the exceptions do need to be faced squarely.The differences of DWs among similar-cultural regions were smaller than cross-cultural regions. There is an urgent need for relevant gold standards.

Background: Future warming is projected to increase the heat-related mortality burden, especially for vulnerable populations. However, most previous studies focused on non-accidental morbidity or mortality, with far less research on heat-related accidental events. Methods: We collected individual accidental death records among all residents in Chinese mainland from June to August during 2013–2019. Accidental deaths were further divided into several subtypes by different causes. We used an individual-level, time-stratified, case-crossover study design to estimate the association between daily mean temperature and accidental deaths, and estimate its variation in seven geo-climatic zones, age (5–64, 65–74, ≥75), and sex (male, female). We then estimated the temperature-related excess accidental deaths under global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3℃. Findings: A total of 711,929 accidental death records were included in our study. We found that higher temperatures were associated with increased risks of deaths from the total accidental events and four main subtypes, including traffic, falls, drowning, and unintentional injuries. We also found that younger individuals (ages 5–64) and males faced a higher risk of heat-related mortality due to total accidents, traffic incidents, and drowning. For future climate scenarios, even under the 1.5℃ climate change scenario, 6,939 (95% eCI (empirical Confidence Interval): 6,818–7,067) excess accidental deaths per year are attributed to higher summertime daily temperature over mainland China, and the number of accidental deaths would increase by 16.71% and 33.59% under the 2℃ and 3℃ climate change scenarios, respectively. For residents living in southern coastal and northwest inland regions, the projected increase in accidental death is higher. Conclusions: This nationwide study confirms that higher summer temperatures are linked to an increased risk of accidental deaths. Younger age groups and males face a higher risk. This indicates that current estimates of the health effects of climate change might be underestimated, particularly for younger populations.

Summary: Background: Dementia has become a major public health concern worldwide, but comprehensive assessments of dementia burden attributable to high body mass index (BMI) in China have not been done. Methods: We used a temporal-spatial Bayesian hierarchical model to estimated BMI levels based on 1.25 million Chinese. We estimated dementia burden attributable to high BMI by age, sex, year, and socioeconomic development in terms of deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) and assessed the effect of population ageing. Findings: The average age-standardised BMI was 24.58 kg/m2 and 24.15 kg/m2 for men and women in 2018, respectively. 12,901 (95% UI, 10,617–15,420) dementia deaths were attributable to high BMI in China in 2018, with 5417 deaths from man and 7421 deaths from woman. The attributable age-standardised YLL rates for dementia increased 27% from 2005 to 2018. The attributable age-standardised mortality rates increased with human development index. People aged 80 years and older had the highest attributable mortality rate, and the rate decreased with decreasing age. Population ageing was an important component of the increase in dementia death. Interpretation: The rapid increase and large inequality highlighted the urgent need for evidence-based policies and interventions. We therefore call for establishing stronger anti-dementia strategies to promote the healthy ageing. Funding: China National Key Research and Development Program, China National Science & Technology Pillar Program, and National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China.

Abstract. Background:. Epilepsy accounts for a significant portion of the global disease burden. However, little is known about the disease burden of epilepsy in China and its provinces. Methods:. We assessed the burden of epilepsy in China and its provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions from 1990 to 2019. Burden was measured as incidence, prevalence, deaths, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by age, sex, year, and province. We used the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) to determine the association between the provincial development level and age-standardized DALY rates of epilepsy from 1990 to 2019. Results:. In 2019, epilepsy caused 1367.51 thousand (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 979.92–1837.61 thousand) DALYs, and the age-standardized DALY rate was 99.77 (95% UI: 71.33–133.52)/100,000. The age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates for epilepsy in China were 24.65/100,000 and 219.69/100,000, increased by 45.00% (95% UI: 8.03–98.74%) and 35.72% (95% UI: 0.47–86.19%) compared with that in 1990, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the proportion of DALY caused by epilepsy in the age group under 25 years steadily decreased. The proportion of DALYs caused by epilepsy in people aged 50 years and over increased from 9.45% and 10.22% in 1990 to 29.01% and 32.72% for male and female individuals in 2019, respectively. The highest age-standardized mortality rates were seen in Tibet (4.26 [95% UI: 1.43–5.66]/100,000), Qinghai (1.80 [95% UI: 1.15–2.36]/100,000), and Yunnan (1.30 [95% UI: 0.88–1.62]/100,000), and the lowest mortality rates were in Guangdong (0.48 [95% UI: 0.39–0.64]/100,000), Zhejiang (0.56 [95% UI: 0.44–0.70]/100,000), and Shanghai (0.57 [95% UI: 0.41–0.73]/100,000). The age-standardized DALY rates across the country and in provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions generally decreased as their SDI increased. Conclusions:. The disease burden of epilepsy is still heavy in China, especially in the western provinces. The incidence and prevalence of epilepsy increased between 1990 and 2019, and the burden of epilepsy in the elderly increases gradually. This study provides evidence on epilepsy prevention and care of different regions in China.

Injury poses heavy burden on public health, but little evidence on the potential role of climate change on injury exists. Here, the authors collect data during 2013-2019 in six provinces of China to estimate the associations between temperature and injury mortality, and to project future mortality burden attributable to temperature change driven by climate change.

Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in China. No previous study has reported CVD mortality at county-level, and little was known about the nonmedical ecological factors of CVD mortality at such small scale in mainland China. Understanding the spatiotemporal variations of CVD mortality and examining its nonmedical ecological factors would be of great importance to tailor local public health policies. Methods By using national mortality registration data in China, this study used hierarchical spatiotemporal Bayesian model to demonstrate spatiotemporal distribution of CVD mortality in 2844 counties during 2006 to 2020 and investigate how nonmedical ecological determinants have affected CVD mortality inequities from the spatial perspectives. Results During 2006–2020, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of CVD decreased from 284.77 per 100,000 in 2006 to 241.34 per 100,000 in 2020. Among 2844 counties, 1144 (40.22%) were hot spots counties with a higher CVD mortality risk compared to the national average and located mostly in northeast, north central, and westernmost regions; on the contrary, 1551 (54.53%) were cold spots counties and located mostly in south and southeast coastal counties. CVD mortality risk decreased from 2006 to 2020 was larger in counties where CVD mortality rate had been higher in 2006 in most of the counties, vice versa. Nationwide, nighttime light intensity (NTL) was the major influencing factor of CVD mortality, a higher NTL appeared to be negatively associated with a lower CVD mortality, with one unit increase in NTL, and the CVD mortality risk will decrease 11% (relative risk of NTL was estimated as 0.89 with 95% confidence interval of 0.83–0.94). Conclusions Substantial between-county discrepancies of CVD mortality distribution were observed during past 15 years in mainland China. Nonmedical ecological determinants were estimated to significantly explain the overall and local spatiotemporal patterns of this CVD mortality risk. Targeted considerations are needed to integrate primary care with clinical care through intensifying further strategies to narrow unequally distribution of CVD mortality at local scale. The approach to county-level analysis with small area models has the potential to provide novel insights into Chinese disease-specific mortality burden.

Abstract Background Chronic pain is a common disease; about 20% of people worldwide suffer from it. While compared with the research on the prevalence and management of chronic pain in developed countries, there is a relative lack of research in this field in China. This research aims to construct the China Pain Health Index (CPHI) to evaluate the current status of the prevalence and management of chronic pain in the Chinese population. Methods The dimensions and indicators of CPHI were determined through literature review, Delphi method, and analytical hierarchy process model, and the original values ​​of relevant indicators were obtained by collecting multi-source data. National and sub-provincial scores of CPHI (2020) were calculated by co-directional transformation, standardization, percentage transformation of the aggregate, and weighted summation. Results The highest CPHI score in 2020 is Beijing, and the lowest is Tibet. The top five provinces are Beijing (67.64 points), Shanghai (67.04 points), Zhejiang (65.74 points), Shandong (61.16 points), and Tianjin (59.99 points). The last five provinces are Tibet (33.10 points), Ningxia (37.24 points), Guizhou (39.85 points), Xinjiang (39.92 points), and Hainan (40.38 points). The prevalence of chronic pain is severe in Heilongjiang, Chongqing, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Fujian. Guizhou, Hainan, Xinjiang, Beijing, and Guangdong display a high burden of chronic pain. The five provinces of Guangdong, Shanghai, Beijing, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang have better treatment for chronic pain, while Tibet, Qinghai, Jilin, Ningxia, and Xinjiang have a lower quality of treatment. Beijing, Shanghai, Qinghai, Guangxi, and Hunan have relatively good development of chronic pain disciplines, while Tibet, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, and Guizhou are relatively poor. Conclusion The economically developed provinces in China have higher CPHI scores, while economically underdeveloped areas have lower scores. The current pain diagnosis and treatment situation in economically developed regions is relatively good, while that in financially underdeveloped areas is rather poor. According to the variations in the prevalence and management of chronic pain among populations in different provinces in China, it is necessary to implement chronic pain intervention measures adapted to local conditions.

Background: Future climate change is likely to alter cold spell-related disease burden. Few projection studies have considered the potential impact of the aging population with changing population size on cold spell-related disease burdens. Methods: We derived the association between cold spells and daily mortality for 272 main cities in mainland China. We combined these associations with modeled daily temperatures from three different climate models under two climate change scenarios and three population scenarios to project excess deaths related to cold spells. Furthermore, we used the factor separation method to calculate the independent contribution of future population size, age structure, and climate change on projected deaths attributable to cold spells. Findings: Compared to the baseline period, future excess deaths related to cold spells are expected to increase over most of the decades under RCP 2.6 (81.5% in 2050 s and 37% in 2090 s) and RCP 4.5 (55.5% in 2050 s and −19% in 2090 s). The factor analysis indicated that the rise of the aged population (≥65) substantially would amplify the excess deaths related to cold spells (increase by 101.1% in the 2050 s and 146.2% in the 2090 s). For the near future (2021–2040), population aging could fully offset the influence of decreased cold-spell days. In the middle of this century (2051–2070), the total excess deaths will exhibit significant variation across three scenarios. By the end of 21 century (2081–2100), the population shrinking would reduce the total excess deaths. Interpretation: Excess deaths related to cold spells may still increase in a warming climate and future demographic shifts would produce considerable influences in this increase for different periods.

Objective This study aims to comprehensively evaluate the resources for prevention and control of chronic and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China to provide a reference basis for optimising the resource allocation for prevention and control of NCDs.Methods China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance sites and National Demonstration Areas for Integrated Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Prevention and Control (NCDDA) were selected as investigation objects. In December 2021, the district (or county) resource allocation for NCD prevention and control was investigated through the NCDDA management information system. According to the index system of NCD prevention and control, 31 indicators of 6 dimensions were collected, and the weighted technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution, weighted rank-sum ratio and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods were used for comprehensive evaluation of resources for prevention and control of NCDs.Results The 653 districts (or counties) in this study cover 22.96% of China’s districts (or counties). The top three weights were full-time staff for NCD prevention and control (0.1066), the amount of funds for NCD prevention and control (0.0967), and the coverage rate of districts (or counties) establishing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease surveillance information system (0.0886). The comprehensive evaluation results for the resources for prevention and control of NCDs by the three methods were basically the same. The results of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation showed that the resource allocation in urban areas (0.9268) was better than that in rural areas (0.3257), the one in eastern region (0.9016) was better than that in central (0.3844) and western regions (0.3868), and the one in NCDDA (0.9625) was better than that in non-NCDDA (0.2901).Conclusion The resources in China for NCD prevention and control differ among different regions, which should be taken into account in future policymaking and resource allocation.

A composite Air Health Index (AHI) is helpful for separately emphasizing the health risks of multiple stimuli and communicating the overall risks of an adverse atmospheric environment to the public. We aimed to establish a new AHI by integrating daily mortality risks due to air pollution with those due to non-optimum temperature in China. Based on the exposure-response (E-R) coefficients obtained from time-series models, the new AHI was constructed as the sum of excess mortality risk associated with air pollutants and non-optimum temperature in 272 Chinese cities from 2013 to 2015. We examined the association between the “total AHI” (based on total mortality) and total mortality, and further compared the ability of the “total AHI” to predict specific cardiopulmonary mortality with that of “specific AHIs” (based on specific mortalities). On average, air pollution and non-optimum temperature were associated with 28.23% of daily excess mortality, of which 23.47% was associated with non-optimum temperature while the remainder was associated with fine particulate matter (PM2.5) (1.12%), NO2 (2.29%,), and O3 (2.29%). The new AHI uses a 10-point scale and shows an average across all 272 cities of 6 points. The E-R curve for AHI and mortality is approximately linear, without any thresholds. Each one unit increase in “total AHI” is associated with a 0.84% increase in all-cause mortality and 1.01%, 0.98%, 1.02%, 1.66%, and 1.71% increases in cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, stroke, respiratory diseases, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality, respectively. Cause-specific mortality risk estimates using the “total AHI” are similar to those predicted by “specific AHIs.” In conclusion, the “total AHI” proposed herein could be a promising tool for communicating health risks related to exposure to the ambient environment to the public.

Abstract Background Pneumoconiosis refers to a class of serious diseases threatening the health of workers exposed to coal or silicosis dust. However, the burden of pneumoconiosis is unavailable in China. Methods Incident cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from pneumoconiosis and its subtypes in China were estimated from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 using a Bayesian meta-regression method. The trend of the burden from pneumoconiosis was analyzed using percentage change and annualized rate of change (ARC) during the period 1990–2019. The relationship between subnational socio-demographic index (SDI) and the ARC of age-standardised death rate was measured using Spearman’s Rank-Order Correlation. Results In 2019, there were 136.8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 113.7–162.5) thousand new cases, 10.2 (8.1–13.6) thousand deaths, and 608.7 (473.6–779.4) thousand DALYs from pneumoconiosis in China. Of the global burdens from pneumoconiosis, more than 60% were in China. Both the total number of new cases and DALYs from pneumoconiosis was keeping increasing from 1990 to 2019. In contrast, the age-standardised incidence, death, and DALY rates from pneumoconiosis and its subtypes, except for the age-standardised incidence rate of silicosis, and age-standardised death rate of asbestosis, experienced a significant decline during the same period. The subnational age-standardised death rates were higher in western China than in eastern China. Meanwhile, the subnational ARC of age-standardised death rates due to pneumoconiosis and its subtypes were significantly negatively correlated with SDI in 2019. Conclusion China suffers the largest health loss from pneumoconiosis in the world. Reducing the burden of pneumoconiosis is still an urgent task in China.

Global climate change has increased the probability and intensity of extreme weather events. The adverse health effect of extreme temperature has gone through a temporal variation over years. Time-series data including city-level daily cardiovascular death records and meteorological data were collected from 136 Chinese cities during 2006 and 2019. A time-varying distributed lag model with interaction terms was applied to assess the temporal change of mortality risk and attributable mortality of heat wave and cold spell. The mortality effect of heat wave generally increased and that of cold spell decreased significantly in the total population during the study period. The heat wave effect increased especially among the female and people aged 65 to 74. As for the cold spell, the reduced susceptibility was detected both in the temperate and cold climatic zone. Our findings appeal for counterpart measures corresponding to sub-populations and regions responding to future extreme climate events from the public and individuals.

Abstract Background Aortic aneurysm (AA) is a global public health concern. However, little is known about the disease burden of AA in China. Methods Following the general analytic strategy used in the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019, we analyzed the mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) due to AA, stratified by sex, age, and province-level region in China from 1990 to 2019. The temporal trend of AA burden in China was analyzed and the main attributable risk factors for AA in China were also explored. Results In China, the total AA deaths were 17,038 (95% UI: 14,392-19,980) in 2019, an increase of 136.1% compared with that in 1990, with an age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of 0.93 (95% UI: 0.79-1.08) per 100,000 person-years in 2019, a decrease of 6.8%. Meanwhile AA caused 378,578 (95% UI: 315,980-450,479) YLLs in 2019, an increase of 102.6% compared with that in 1990, with a crude YLL rate of 26.6 (95% UI: 22.2-31.7) per 100,000 person-years, an increase of 68.6%. The AA mortality and YLLs were higher in males than in females. AA caused most YLLs in the 65- to 75-year-old age group. The AA mortality and YLLs varied significantly among provinces in China, and the change in ASDR showed a negative correlation with the sociodemographic index of different provinces, namely, more decline of ASDR in developed provinces. High systolic blood pressure was shown to be the most significant attributable risk factor for AA burden in both males and females, and smoking was another major attributable risk factor, especially in males. Conclusions The disease burden of AA increased significantly from 1990 to 2019 in China, with higher mortality and YLLs in males, senior populations, and among residents of most western provinces in China. High systolic blood pressure and smoking were two major attributable risk factors for AA mortality in China.

BackgroundChronic respiratory disease (CRD) is a common cause of mortality in China, but little is known about the place of death (POD) among individuals with CRD.MethodsInformation about CRD-caused deaths was obtained from the National Mortality Surveillance System (NMSS) in China, covering 605 surveillance points in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities. Both individual- and provincial-level characteristics were measured. Multilevel logistic regression models were built to evaluate correlates of hospital CRD deaths.ResultsFrom 2014 to 2020, a total of 1,109,895 individuals who died of CRD were collected by the NMSS in China, among which home was the most common POD (82.84%), followed by medical and healthcare institutions (14.94%), nursing homes (0.72%), the way to hospitals (0.90%), and unknown places (0.59%). Being male, unmarried, having a higher level of educational attainment, and being retired personnel were associated with increased odds of hospital death. Distribution of POD differed across the provinces and municipalities with different development levels, also presenting differences between urban and rural. Demographics and individual socioeconomic status (SES) explained a proportion of 23.94% of spatial variations at the provincial level. Home deaths are the most common POD (>80%) among patients with COPD and asthma, which are the two major contributors to CRD deaths.ConclusionHome was the leading POD among patients with CRD in China in the study period; therefore, more attention should be emphasized to the allocation of health resources and end-of-life care in the home setting to meet the increasing needs among people with CRD.

Background: In China, there are few studies that have reported future estimations for cancer mortality. Therefore, this study aimed to assess cancer mortality in China and identify priorities for future cancer control strategies. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study, we extracted data on cancer-related deaths from 1990 to 2019 in Hunan Province, China. Under the current trends evaluated using a joinpoint regression model, we fitted a linear regression model for cancer mortality projections by 2025. Results: The age-standardized mortality rate of total cancer in Hunan, China, declined slowly and is projected to be 140.80 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 140.12–141.48) by 2025, with the mortality rate in men approximately twice that in women. In 2025, the top five causes of cancer-related deaths in males are projected to be lung, liver, colorectal, stomach, and esophageal cancers, with the corresponding causes in females being lung, breast, colorectal, liver, and cervical cancers. Between 2019 and 2025, male mortality rates due to liver and pancreatic cancer are expected to increase, while those due to the six leading female cancers will increase. Excess male deaths were associated with liver and esophageal cancers, while all main cancers in females will have excess mortality, except for colorectal cancer. Conclusion: A comprehensive cancer spectrum characteristic of both developing and developed countries will remain in Hunan, China. Lung cancer remains the most common cause of cancer-related deaths, and tobacco control efforts are urgently required. Additional efforts should be made to promote universal screening, improve access to cancer healthcare services, optimize medical payment models, and enhance access to valuable anticancer drugs.

Background: Asthma is an important contributor to the burden of non-communicable diseases in China. Understanding spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in asthma mortality is relevant to the design and implementation of targeted interventions. Methods: This study collected information on asthma deaths occurring across 605 disease surveillance points (DSPs) as recorded in the population-based national mortality surveillance system (NMSS) of China. Asthma was defined according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision code J45-J46. Estimates of age-standardized mortality rates and total national asthma deaths were calculated based on yearly population data. Statistical analysis was performed to investigate the influence of various factors on asthma mortality. Results: Between 2014 and 2020, a total of 40 116 asthma deaths occurred in DSPs. Standardized asthma mortality per 100 000 people decreased from 1.79 (95% CI: 1.74–1.83) in 2014 to 1.07 (95% CI: 1.03–1.10) in 2020 in China. In 2020, the overall asthma mortality rate was higher for male patients than for female patients, and asthma mortality rates increased substantially with age. Age-standardized asthma mortality per 100,000 people exhibited significant geographic variation, ranging from 0.93 (95% CI: 0.89–0.98) in Eastern China to 1.04 (95% CI: 0.98–1.10) in Central China and 1.37 (95% CI: 1.29–1.45) in Western China in 2020. Asthma mortality in urban areas appeared to be higher than in rural areas. Socioeconomic factors, including gross domestic product per capita and density of hospital beds per 10,000 population, may be related to asthma mortality. Male asthma patients who lived in rural areas and were aged 65 years and above were generally at high risk of asthma-related mortality. Conclusions: This study found a spatial and temporal trend for a reduction in asthma deaths over seven years in China; however, there remain important sociodemographic groups that have not secured the same decrease in mortality rates. Trial registration: This was a purely observational study and thus registration was not required.

There is a lack of research on the effects of acute exposure to ambient sulfur dioxide (SO2) on mortality caused by asthma, especially nationwide research in China. To explore the acute effect of exposure to ambient SO2 on asthma mortality using nationwide dataset in China from 2015 to 2020 and further evaluate the associations in subgroups with different geographical and demographic characteristics. We used data from China’s Disease Surveillance Points system with 29,553 asthma deaths in China during 2015–2020. The exposure variable was the daily mean concentrations of SO2 from the ChinaHighSO2 10 km × 10 km daily grid dataset. Bilinear interpolation was used to estimate each individual’s exposure to air pollutants and meteorological variables. We used a time-stratified case crossover design at the individual level to analyze the exposure response relationship between short-term exposure to SO2 and asthma mortality. Stratified analyses were carried out by sex, age group, marital status, warm season and cold season, urbanicity and region. Significant associations between short-term exposure to ambient SO2 and increased asthma mortality were found in this nationwide study. The excess risk (ER) for each 10 μg/m3 increase in SO2 concentrations at lag07 was 7.78 % (95 % CI, 4.16–11.52 %). Season appeared to significantly modify the association. The associations were stronger in cold season (ER 9.78 %, 95 % CI:5.82 −13.89 %). The association remained consistent using different lag periods, adjusting for other pollutants, and in the analysis during pre-Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) period. Our study indicates increased risk of asthma mortality with acute exposures to SO2 in Chinese population. The current study lends support for greater awareness of the harmful effect of SO2 in China and other countries with high SO2 pollution.

Background: Although many studies have reported the mortality effect of temperature, there were few studies on the mortality risk of humidity, let alone the joint effect of temperature and humidity. This study aimed to investigate the joint and interaction effect of high temperature and relative humidity on mortality in China, which will deepen understanding the health risk of mixture climate exposure. Methods: The mortality and meteorological data were collected from 353 locations in China (2013–2017 in Jilin, Hunan, Guangdong and Yunnan provinces, 2009–2017 in Zhejiang province, and 2006–2011 in other Provinces). We defined location-specific daily mean temperature ≥ 75th percentile of distribution as high temperature, while minimum mortality relative humidity as the threshold of high relative humidity. A time-series model with a distributed lag non-linear model was first employed to estimate the location-specific associations between humid-hot events and mortality, then we conducted meta-analysis to pool the mortality effect of humid-hot events. Finally, an additive interaction model was used to examine the interactive effect between high temperature and relative humidity. Results: The excess rate (ER) of non-accidental mortality attributed to dry-hot events was 10.18% (95% confidence interval (CI): 8.93%, 11.45%), which was higher than that of wet-hot events (ER = 3.21%, 95% CI: 0.59%, 5.89%). The attributable fraction (AF) of mortality attributed to dry-hot events was 10.00% (95% CI: 9.50%, 10.72%) with higher burden for females, older people, central China, cardiovascular diseases and urban city. While for wet-hot events, AF was much lower (3.31%, 95% CI: 2.60%, 4.30%). We also found that high temperature and low relative humidity had synergistic additive interaction on mortality risk. Conclusion: Dry-hot events may have a higher risk of mortality than wet-hot events, and the joint effect of high temperature and low relative humidity may be greater than the sum of their individual effects.

Summary: Background: The disability weight (DW) quantifies the severity of health states from disease sequela and is a pivotal parameter for disease burden calculation. We conducted a national and subnational DW measurement in China. Methods: In 2020–2021, we conducted a web-based survey to assess DWs for 206 health states in 31 Chinese provinces targeting health workers via professional networks. We fielded questions of paired comparison (PC) and population health equivalence (PHE). The PC data were analysed by probit regression analysis, and the regression results were anchored by results from the PHE responses on the DW scale between 0 (no loss of health) and 1 (health loss equivalent to death). Findings: We used PC responses from 468,541 respondents to estimate DWs of health states. Eight of 11 domains of health had significantly negative coefficients in the regression of the difference between Chinese and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) DWs, suggesting lower DW values for health states with mention of these domains in their lay description. We noted considerable heterogeneity within domains, however. After applying these Chinese DWs to the 2019 GBD estimates for China, total years lived with disability (YLDs) increased by 14·9% to 177 million despite lower estimates for musculoskeletal disorders, cardiovascular diseases, mental disorders, diabetes and chronic kidney disease. The lower estimates of YLDs for these conditions were more than offset by higher estimates of common, low-severity conditions. Interpretation: The differences between the GBD and Chinese DWs suggest that there might be some contextual factors influencing the valuation of health states. While the reduced estimates for mental disorders, alcohol use disorder, and dementia could hint at a culturally different valuation of these conditions in China, the much greater shifts in YLDs from low-severity conditions more likely reflects methodological difficulty to distinguish between health states that vary a little in absolute DW value but a lot in relative terms. Funding: This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 82173626], the National Key Research and Development Program of China [grant numbers 2018YFC1315302], Wuhan Medical Research Program of Joint Fund of Hubei Health Committee [grant number WJ2019H304], and Ningxia Natural Science Foundation Project [grant number 2020AAC03436].

BackgroundTobacco smoking is a leading cause of premature death in China, especially among adult men. Since the implementation of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control in 2005, nationwide tobacco control has been strengthened, but its long-term impact on smoking prevalence is unclear.Methods and findingsFive nationally representative surveys of the China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance (CCDRFS) were conducted in 2007, 2010, 2013, 2015, and 2018. A total of 624,568 adults (278,605 men and 345,963 women) aged 18 to 69 years were randomly selected from 31 provinces (or equivalent) in China. Temporal changes in smoking prevalence and patterns (e.g., percentages of those smoking manufactured cigarettes, amount smoked, and age at smoking initiation) were analyzed, overall and by sex, urban or rural residence, year of birth, education and occupation, using linear regression methods. Among men, the standardized prevalence of current smoking decreased from 58.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 56.1 to 60.7) to 50.8% (95% CI: 49.1 to 52.5, p < 0.001) between 2007 and 2018, with annual decrease more pronounced in urban (55.7% [95% CI: 51.2 to 60.3] to 46.3% [95% CI: 43.7 to 49.0], p < 0.001) than rural men (59.9% [95% CI: 57.5 to 62.4] to 54.6% [95% CI: 52.6 to 56.6], p = 0.05) and in those born before than after 1980. Among rural men born after 1990, however, the prevalence increased from 40.2% [95% CI: 34.0 to 46.4] to 52.1% ([95% CI: 45.7 to 58.5], p = 0.007), with the increase taking place mainly before 2015. Among women, smoking prevalence remained extremely low at around 2% during 2007 to 2018. No significant changes of current smoking prevalence (53.9% to 50.8%, p = 0.22) were observed in male patients with at least 1 of major chronic diseases (e.g., hypertension, diabetes, myocardial infarction, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)). In 2018, 25.6% of adults aged ≥18 years smoked, translating into an estimated 282 million smokers (271 million men and 11 million women) in China. Across 31 provinces, smoking prevalence varied greatly. The 3 provinces (Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hunan) with highest per capita tobacco production had highest smoking prevalence in men (68.0%, 63.4%, and 61.5%, respectively), while lowest prevalence was observed in Shanghai (34.8%). Since the children and teenage groups were not included in the surveys, we could not assess the smoking trends among youths. Furthermore, since the smoking behavior was self-reported, the smoking prevalence could be underestimated due to reporting bias.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed that the smoking prevalence has decreased steadily in recent decades in China, but there were diverging trends between urban and rural areas, especially among men born after 1980. Future tobacco control strategies should target rural young men, regions with high tobacco production, and patients suffering from chronic diseases.

Objective To evaluate the trends in disease burden and the epidemiological features of central nervous system (CNS) cancer in China from 1990 to 2019.Design A population-based observational study.Setting The incidence, prevalence, death and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to CNS cancer in China, stratified by sex, age and provincial region, were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.Participants Data were publicly available and individuals were not involved.Results In 2019, the incident cases of CNS cancer in China were 347 992 (95% UI 262 084–388 896), and the age-standardised rate (ASR) of incidence was 5.69 (95% UI 4.36–6.78) per 100 000 person-years increased by 27.9% compared with that in 1990; meanwhile, CNS cancer caused 63 527 (95% UI 47 793–76 948) deaths in China in 2019, and the ASR of death was 3.5 (95% UI 2.62–4.21) per 100 000 person-years decreased by 9.6%. The ASRs of incidence and prevalence of CNS cancer in China increased more rapidly than the global average; meanwhile, the ASRs of DALYs owing to CNS cancer declined more rapidly. The burden of CNS cancer showed no significant differences between men and women, but was more pronounced in early childhood and old adulthood. The ASRs of incidence and prevalence were higher in high-income provinces, confirmed by the positive correlation with Sociodemographic Index (SDI), with correlation coefficient r of 0.322 and 0.767, respectively (both p